 Hey folks, how's everyone doing on this momentous taco Tuesday? Hope you all have had a good trading week so far just gonna be getting this all fired up here appreciate everyone tuning in and We're gonna talk a little bit about a couple different futures markets We're gonna look at the S&P the NASDAQ the tenure note futures and crude oil It's a good selection of Contracts to look at they all visualize quite nicely in book map So that'll be my focus today I'll also dive into some of the inner market relationships and options positioning in other areas that I watch To come up with trading strategies and ideas and just to get a better pulse on what's going on in the market So first and foremost as you know, I'm markets and mayhem I'm doing this as a part of a partnership that trader aid has with book map We've been using book map for really several years now The software is really helpful for making intraday trading decisions and also just visualizing liquidity and getting a broader feel For various markets, so that's gonna be what we focus on today, but leading into looking at book map live I've got a slide deck I've prepared for everyone that I think will be pretty helpful to prepare for the trading day and as we go if you have any Questions, feel free to share them on the YouTube chat or in discord on book maps discord Just tag me in If you're watching from the trader aid discord tag me in the questions channel there, you know Whatever works just let me know and I'm happy to respond. So first a little bit about me. I'm an experienced trader and investor I really started trading in 2005 with my own money. I learned to trade Leading up to that. I actually learned a lot studied a lot. I didn't have the kind of communities that folks have now I feel like people are really fortunate to have these communities where you can meet traders of various skill levels and backgrounds But what I did have was this voracious appetite for knowledge. So I read I learned and then I eventually started trading my own money and You know my first trades that I ever did were actually with borrowed funds from my dad during the dot-com boom And that taught me a little bit more about How crazy things could get in the market. I saw Amazon and Yahoo double the next day I got out of the positions because I even as a younger person felt like okay, if things can double overnight Why would anyone work a normal job? All right, you would just trade the market You'd become richer than anything else, you know possible and there would be no reason to do anything else So I got out of that and I paid my dad back I took the profit eventually used part of that to buy myself a new car later on but my whole thing was I Needed to understand how that could happen and and what was going on before I could trust the market again So I spent the next many years Learning more about markets and so that's been my passion really Technical analysis fundamental analysis macro and then also taking a more systematic approach to looking at the markets So if you want to learn more about my work, you probably already know me on Twitter mayhem for markets I'm also on YouTube with the same name mayhem for markets That's mayhem number four markets You can visit me on trader a calm for short and intermediate term trading ideas strategy Education and unique tools that look at the options market and other market Relationships that we have that are built into our service. There's no upgrade There's no add-on in the base trade raid package You get a bunch of charts and in trade raid plus you have even more functionality There's also macro visor where we talk about how to make macro actionable really breaking down the big picture for folks And there's free content on both sites You don't have to pay a dime to see what we're up to and if you want to learn more You can always sign up for the paid services and then my YouTube I share my views on the markets Technicals macro and otherwise and then finally if you want to get 40% off book map There's a limited-time offer. We're running right now Where you can get up to 40% off by clicking on trader a comm slash book map go to the bottom of page under special offers And you can see those offers there which are great discounts on what I think is a very valuable tool So now we got to go to the really fun part of my presentation Everyone's favorite slide the disclaimer General disclosure all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor Recommendations trading futures equities and digital currencies involve substantial risk of loss It is not suitable for all investors past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results So that's the boilerplate disclaimer. Be careful when you're trading out there Don't just trade because you see someone else trading whether it's me or someone else have your own system have your own risk management That's the biggest thing So my theme has been and remains this idea of coalescence is a compass where I try to see Different data points that are telling me similar things that helps me learn a little bit more about where I might be able to find Good risk and reward where there might be some kind of edge that I can find in the markets And we have a nasty market this morning. Okay, I'm just gonna You go divert from the slide deck for just a moment to talk about the retail sales data that came in That retail sales data came in it over twice what the expectations were for the headline number And over three times what the expectations were for core So what this suggests is that there is still more demand in this economy than many would have thought that does suggest that potentially there are some Drivers for this reacceleration of inflation and that sent rate higher rates higher. That's pushed the NASDAQ down It's down about nine tenths of one percent pre-market the s&p down about seven tenths of one percent pre-market So these are things that we're looking at because the macro picture is starting to suggest that the Fed might have to do more And that's having a role on price discovery and rates and in equity futures So first, let's look at the options picture. This is the gamma profile that we're looking at for spx the S&P 500 cash index where there's about 10,000 different options on the chain I analyze over 200,000 data points from those options to create this data set This is from an algorithm that I've written these charts are Being built every minute now on trader aid So when the market's trading you can actually check this out The work was originally by a friend of mine surge And then I just started to build and build and build on top of it to now where it's become its own Unique set of tools that's available to our subscribers And we'll be sharing all this data with you all today But the main areas to watch here really you could see it on the chart on the right chart that 4400 is such a large area of collective exposure That's going to be a really important level to watch but where we are right now this You know pre-market where we were I should say because now we're quite a bit lower But this 4370 area that we were closing yesterday Was an area of potential resistance because of that call positioning overhead We have been rejected pre-market now. I think the s&p cash is trading about 4340 390 That's pretty close to another important level at that 4350 just below on that gamma chart We'll see if that acts a bit like a magnet. This is going to be an interesting day of cross currents folks We have options expiration this week. We have vixporation Tomorrow that does set us up for with skew on the rise which we'll talk about some potential bid Earlier in the day, but first let's look at the gamma profile here We are almost back in positive gamma territory based on our model at trader aid Now that's showing that the gamma flip is just 16 handles above at 4390 Which is certainly a level that we could see happen this week We could get back into positive gamma exposure this week if there's a bit of a pop Obviously today's pre-market action doesn't suggest that's the case, but there are some drivers that could lead us there We have earnings. We have a lot of other economic data. I think we have something like 17 fed speeches this week It's like they have their own reality show now There are more times where the fed is speaking than isn't speaking It feels like they've sort of monopolized the airwaves in that sense So we'll be paying attention to some of that data as well as occasionally if they sort of speak in ways that Adjust markets expectations about what the fed may do particularly in light of some of this data coming out That can also shift rates and equity appetites as well So you can screenshot this for later. These are the key s and p 500 levels to watch You have your call wall up at 44 50. That's where I think there would be some pretty significant resistance and you have just below us this key level at 4300 this is a volatility trigger if we push below it It would likely unleash a broader wave of selling pressure and more volatility overall We also have that gamma flip level just above us at 43 90 pushing into positive gamma If we did see that happen this week Would make it more likely that the hedging dynamics that dealers are engaging in goes from this chase mode Where they're buying rips and selling dips and adding to volatility It would go to the opposite dynamic where they'd be selling rips and buying dips and it would actually be a compressor of volatility Which would be interesting because seasonality suggests that we're close to peak volatility for the year if we look at prior About three decades worth of data on the vixx Similarly on the other side the inverse if you will with the s and p You have some of that seasonality data Suggesting that we have a trough both in the price of the index and in earnings. That's likely to come about so Obviously anything can happen seasonality doesn't dictate the future It just gives us an idea of what an aggregation of past trends look like and in that Perspective there are some reasons to at least look at things a little more constructively, but we need to see the price action agree So let's look at sentiment here. This is retail bears versus bulls We can see that bulls are Becoming a little bit more adamant when I dig underneath the surface of this data It's really bullishness rising more than bearishness falling. So we're into the neutral zone This is a theme that I talked about in this weekend's navigating the markets on trader aid this idea that Positioning sentiment. We're not really seeing any kind of Strong conviction or extremes on either side. We're sort of hovering in this neutral zone We can kind of see that in in some of the price action. We had closing yesterday It looks a little different this morning, of course, but we have not opened yet Nevertheless, we see that same in managed money positioning the nAAim suggesting that there were some increases in long positioning week over week This data is collected last wednesday It is then posted by nAAim on their website nAAim.org on thursday afternoon It's a nice way to get a pulse of some of that sentiment and positioning from Various quadrants of the market right understanding what retail is doing what managed money is doing Gives us a little bit more of a sense as to if there are any actionable extremes So we look at that data, but then in the context of this here, this is skew This suggests that there is a lot more hedging going on as expressed with put premium rising Further over call premium in the s and p 500 index This is what's called a volatility smirk because there is more put premium than call premium There has been since the 1987 crash as hedging dynamics improved as the math behind them Became more solid and as a result of that you have much more hedging in the spx index In fact, it is the most actively traded options market in the world About 1.25 trillion dollars of notional value exchanges in it every day And close to half of that in zero dte's But the longer term positioning in it is often skewed towards puts because it's used as a hedging vehicle So that longs can add leverage to their long positioning or also hedge for downside or speculate about potential downside as well And this level of skew going into op-ex week This is important because this gives the market some delta and theta decay room to kind of Churn off in the first and last hours of trading when a lot of that dealer hedging intensifies during the more Transactional more liquid times of trading. So I think that this what we see today is going to be interesting in the context of earnings economic data both pre-market and you know, we're going to have some Economic events during the market's trading day. This is a pretty intense calendar I posted it on my twitter earlier But then on top of that you also have these flows that are building up into monthly options expiration that could further Drive some level of a passive bid here So it will be pretty interesting to see how much of this pre-market selling some of which is already beginning to reverse As we talk here, uh, at least in the spoo's or the s and p How much of this is kind of worked off in the first hour and then we start to see more price discovery Do we see a trend a emerge out of this? Do we see a reversal after the cash open? Those are going to be things we should watch really closely Because the pre-market action doesn't always give us a feel for where things are going to go Particularly when there's all these other drivers at work And we can see looking at the new york stock exchange mclellan oscillator This is a breadth and momentum oscillator It is pushing more positive. It does look a little more constructive Obviously, this is based off of the weekly data And we're looking at yesterday's close to qualify this but nevertheless It does give us at least a sense that there could be some room for a push higher And in the bond market, which is not having a great day But this slide nevertheless remains true that We're seeing so much short exposure by cta models It does suggest that if we have a meaningful turnabout in price, which is I know it's a high bar Everyone loves to sell treasuries to zero this year last year and really for the better part of the year before But if we did see that turnabout in price, we could see a shift in momentum buyers They could actually start covering these shorts and even start going long Will that be enough to offset the broader pressure of overwhelming supply? That's a that's a bigger question. I think to consider here But nevertheless, these could be buyers at the margin, particularly if we see price pressure Begin to come off and we see the 10 years start to move higher and the 30 years start to move higher in price With yields going down on both of those instruments Let's take a look at the s&p 500 e-mini futures contract. This is Really at a critical inflection point here pre-market. We're just below this Basically six month point of control We have so much volume that's accumulated where we are. It's kind of a sticky area In the auction and we're testing pushing below it I think that is important. I think if we do close today below that 20 day moving average It would give sellers an advantage On the other side of it if we're able to push above that point of control on a closing basis That would suggest that we're going to challenge that descending trend line Which would give sellers a distinct advantage So we're in the neutral zone in sentiment and positioning, but we're also in the neutral zone in price So there's room for either side to take control and set up some pretty good swing trade opportunities Obviously, we'll drill down to the details of the intraday here But from a longer term time frame. This is starting to look pretty interesting This is one of those inflection points Where we're going to get a sense over the next couple weeks with all the data coming in and all the earnings coming in As to really where the prices of this market want to go as we wind out this year I think we'll get much more clues about that and I think that that's kind of seeing how things shape up here As we're consolidating will be important. We have been in a downtrend Really for most of the summer and going into october You can see that with a series of lower highs and lower lows in this market Now we're sort of at this point where the s and p 500 gets to give us a better sense as to where it wants to go And how this trend takes shape So I will be watching again for a close above the 20 day the point of control And that upper trend line as a good long entry signal for swings And on the other side of it if we break below the 20 day and we start to get below this chunky area of the volume profile That's where i'm going to look at this market more bearishly and Consider that perhaps we do get a retest of the those october lows from this year When we zoom in and this is from you know, I sampled this at 852. So it's a little bit before Since I can't kind of put the live slides into the power point But we can see that this is not an A good place for buyers, right? They don't enjoy an advantage this morning We are below this multi-day point of control. We're also below a pretty key area of price action And I I kind of feel like With what we're seeing pre-market. It's going to be up to the buyers to really Show that they can push this thing higher. So for me a pivot would be 43 94 50 I think if we can push over there and build acceptance in today I'm going to be much more interested in taking longs Especially if that's part of kind of breaking into a trend breaking out of the opening range and into a trend If we can see that push above into that chunkier area of the volume profile I think we'll get pulled into the point of control and possibly higher And it will give us an opportunity to re-explore some of these higher areas of price Where there is a little bit of cleaning up to do on the other side of it However, you know, if we continue the kind of price action that we see Pre-market through the first hour of trade where there should be a supportive bid That's going to suggest that sellers are continuing to sell into any buying pressure And we'll be able to visualize that in book map We'll talk about that as we explore the first half hour together But this is going to be pretty pivotal. We're at an important inflection point And I think moving above this 20 hour average that 43 94 50 That'll be a good pivot to start a long trade Intra day and then getting above the point of control and continuing to build acceptance I think would have me adding to that and on the other side I a little bit cautious because going into today obviously the momentum is not in our favor on an intraday or even a multi-week basis The Nasdaq Admittedly looks a little bit better than the s&p. Although this morning is calling that into question too, isn't it? We're down about You know 100 plus points from where this level was so the key though is are we going to stay above the 20 day moving average? Find support there and at the lower trend line and point of control You see that convergence all those three important areas right coming together That's going to be very important for me. If we're able to hold above those levels I think things look a lot more constructive for buyers to try to take it back But if we start breaking below there, this would have me looking at short swings on the Nasdaq On the other side of this if we're able to push above this key point this 15 20 270 dot 75 that's going to have me more interested in starting a swing long And if we can break above the descending trend line adding to that swing long Zooming in sellers enjoy control this morning. We're below that 20 hour average We are below a pretty key area of price action We're also below the chunkier area of the volume profile over the last five days So that's telling me caution is warranted here the sellers enjoy an advantage pre-market And we're going to have to see whether or not buyers can take control by pushing this thing above 15 270 if they can I think I want to get back involved with the starter and then add to that if we're able to push above the point of control and build acceptance The 10-year note futures look pretty terrible this morning. They rolled over as soon as that Uh retail sales data came out per, you know, meaningfully stronger than expected And that push higher in rates is sort of a recalibration of market expectations about the economy About the result of this fed in light of the data. This is very much in a downtrend There's no reason to want to be a hero and get long 10-year notes here or really any duration of any kind Because we haven't seen in my opinion the ceiling in rates for me to say we've seen the high end rates I have to see something very particular in my view I have to see the yield curve steepen into actual positivity So that me as a buyer of us government debt that i'm getting paid a higher interest rate to Lend the government over a longer time period than I am on a very short time period right now You're getting paid more to lend for 30 days and you are for 30 weeks 30 months or 30 years And I don't like that. I don't really feel particularly compelled to want to lend on a longer time horizon I understand that it's not likely they're going to default, but what I do want to question is is that yield I'm going to be a coupon where I actually get paid commensurate with the rate of dollar debasement a And b if i'm going for capital appreciation are the lows in and look at this chart Nothing suggests that the lows are in for The 10 year note price which means nothing suggests that the highs are in for the 10 year note yield And zooming in on this we can see that extension of negative momentum this morning retail sales data came out And price went into freefall. There was some institutional accumulation But it wasn't really enough to subdue this negative momentum So we can see we're below this multi-day point of control We're also below the second largest area of profile buyers were trying to build volume there They had fought sellers over the last two days they've lost Sellers have once again taken control of this market and unless there's some kind of fear that comes into the broader market Whether it's from geopolitical events and sort of the tragic stuff that's going on around the world particularly in the middle east You know if that escalates that could certainly provide a bid to to Bonds and move rates lower or if we have some much softer than expected economic data Of course, we got the opposite of that this morning And crude continues to build This is a area that identified for trader aid subscribers earlier when we were basing on this lower trend line saying I was starting to get interested in crude and then once again We retested and I said again, you know, this is a great area to consider adding to energy positions and futures exposure I remain of that mind. I think that the dynamics in the energy markets are such supply is too tight Demand is firming and we're likely to see prices move higher from here We did bottom over the summer and we can see we've been building from that We're well above this multi month point of control. We're hanging on to the 20 day average pretty nicely But overall, I think this is a very constructive chart and I do think there are opportunities in energy natural gas You know crude's kind of crazier Brother is also starting to firm up as well. So there could be opportunities in that space Zooming into crude we can see we're well above the multi-day point of control Price actions consolidating a bit here. I'm not saying I want to get long today But I like the space. I've liked it when we've pinged this lower trend line It's been an area where you can very easily manage your risk You know, if you're wrong pretty quickly and on the other side of it, you know We have a structure with the supply and demand situation in crude That's only likely to become more and more of a deficit over time So I'm watching this market intently Particularly some of the players in energy that I think are attractive These are areas that I'm going to continue to identify for our members at Traderade But if you're looking at energy, you know, it's hard to look at it bearishly It's it's hard to look at this price action and say, you know what? I really want to sell this thing down because it's in a longer-term uptrend and even on the multi-day chart It's overall pretty constructive And we've got gold gold here has had an incredible run That tension in the Middle East sparked fear Gold is a very emotional trading instrument I mean of all the things that one might trade gold is probably the most emotional It is driven more by opinion than anything else because there's not a lot of firm supply demand dynamics that we can trade off of it All the gold that's ever been produced in the world is pretty much still available to buy and sell with some You know, lossage and electronics and other equipment So it's it's a lot different than other commodities I like to consider it an uncertainty hedge more than an inflation hedge Nevertheless, it's bumping above this upper level. It can't seem to get above the point of control Momentum seems to be a little bit exhaustive to the upside So if I was long gold here, which I'm not I would be fading and and getting out of my position And looking for a break above this trend line But taking my core off because I'm not particularly Excited about buying into the move that's already happened We're well over a hundred dollars off our lows and what we often see with gold is if there's not a continuation An escalation for the reason to be fearful then it fades pretty aggressively So if we do see a turn lower below 1932 I think it'll be interesting to take a swing short because that'll tell me that sellers are taking control And we're starting to have a resumption of this downtrend And intraday gold Again looks a little bit iffy. We have come back into the higher end of this range We got rejected last time we explored up here if we broke above that 1932 I would be more interested in fading this on a swing basis so that I wouldn't necessarily be trading it intraday So let's sum it all up before we dive into book map Watch the opening bell and hang out for the next half hour looking at s and p nasdaq crude and tenure note futures I know it's like the most exciting thing you could possibly do with your morning But hopefully you love finance as much as I do and you're excited about what's playing out here So the s and p is at a key technical juncture the nasdaq overall looks more constructive But this morning's price action has not been particularly good. It's now down almost 1 pre market tenure note looks vulnerable And I wrote this before the retail sales data came out It continues to roll over and crude remains technically strong sentiment and positioning inequities Is pretty neutral leaves room for both sides, right? We're kind of in the neutral zone in price We're in the neutral zone in sentiment and positioning so that opens up ammo for both sides for both parties to take control And we're nearing positive gamma territory We're also at this period of time where we have a lot of skew Built up from hedging that hedging has really risen over the last several trading days And that gives us some ammo for a passive bid into op exes friday It's probably going to be a pretty decent sized op ex and finally Going into this morning. We're going to get a sense as to who's winning Right in the first 15 20 minutes, especially we'll get a sense as to which side is taking control price action And we may be able to see some trading opportunities play off of that So let's get out of PowerPoint and we're going to zoom in to book map So hopefully y'all can see that on screen just fine Right now we're looking at the nasdaq grinding lower As we approach the bell just under three minutes left to the opening bell as i'm talking here If you guys have any questions, if you have any feedback, feel free to put it in the youtube chat Tag me in on the discord, whatever you'd like I'm just going to look around and see if I have any messages real quick. So give me a moment Excellent. All right Yeah, I apologize for the folks on the discord. I was muted there for a minute Should be all good now and uh Good night to the folks out there in india in the youtube chat I realized that we have a a whole global audience watching which is awesome So hey to everyone around the world. I'm out here in the united states And uh, love to see people all around the world trading the markets watching the economy It's it's really quite fascinating stuff. It's probably the best game on earth finance So as we head into this open We're just about a minute away the nasdaq is plunging some new lows over the last couple minutes here We have the s and p looking kind of similar here. There's this large area of resting liquidity. It's it's heading into You do have a little bit of buying from institutions, but it's not enough to tell me that they're they're hungry here We are now heading very close into the opening bell. We saw that resting liquidity taken out, right? This is always When you're trending lower and you see resting liquidity in ample size building below you and we see that laddering happening here It typically acts as a magnet and pulls price a bit lower So we do see that playing out We see the nasdaq following along a little bit and we see resting liquidity building below it as well More than is above at least that's what it appears going to open everything can change as the bell rings Then we've got the tenure note. It's struggled this morning It is off its lows and we do see some institutional buying And finally we have crude which has been pretty choppy this morning overall So let's go back to the s and p here as the market is opening And we are seeing a little bit more of that selling pressure. We're also seeing resting liquidity building up below us We do have that 380 offer on top just above this key gamma level And these levels that you'll see in the options column They are calculated by the same algorithm that I use for the charts and all the other tools that I've built for Traderade some pretty cool options driven models that we have We do see a little bit of that bid We saw the point of control get dragged lower by sellers this morning That is a little bit bearish, but if they could push above it As they're trying now that would at least look constructive. We also see the VWAP beginning to be pulled down a little bit by that selling pressure as well Let's check out what's happening at the tech laden rate sensitive index the nasdaq. It is also choppy It made a pretty decisive new low Just after the open we're pushing a little bit off of that. Remember we have those passive options flows that are adding to the bid here All that skew that built up gives that a little bit of room So it's going to be very important to see if buyers can use that to their advantage and break off of these lows or not If they can't that suggests that sellers are really firmly in control and are selling into those flows and buyers are not putting in any Kind of a bid to back that up I mean, basically the translation is in simple terms the buyers have a Advantage in terms of where the flows are this morning if they take advantage of it They could push off these lows, but if they do not it suggests that Indeed sellers are pretty adamant And overseas in europe equities are kind of soft over there as well Euro stocks 50 backs all down nikkei was down overnight Vicks has a little bit of a bid today After it gave back that friday surge or a good chunk of it yesterday and that was some of the highest call volume We had seen in the vicks in a long time about 1.3 million calls bought We see the s and p building up here just above the point of control We see some smaller traders getting stopped out here 99 contracts bought Let's see what the nasdaq is doing. It's giving us a little bit of the same This is likely those passive flows. I was talking about kind of adding To the pressure to the upside. It doesn't mean that it gives us a guaranteed trade to the upside But at least it tells us there's a little bit of buffering and there's room for buyers to try to take advantage So that's why watching these opening minutes is so important and not just trading based off of our bias or what happened pre-market If you don't have a really good setup The cash open is actually a good time for us as smaller traders to figure out what the big guys are doing And then try to mirror that so that we can make some money because we can be more agile We're tiny. We we we can move in and out of the market without even moving price Especially in something as liquid as the s and p or the nasdaq or 10 your new note futures are crude Like you don't even really leave a footprint as a small trader Which means that you have an advantage because if you're a much bigger desk, you need to move in and out of the market methodically interesting to see some aggressive Netflix call buying activity ahead of their earnings Someone put in about 167 thousand dollars in the $370 calls that expire this Friday still kind of Testing this point of control. We're seeing buyers push it a little bit higher here Again, those passive flows helping to provide a bit of a bid one thing that's encouraging We see that liquidity below is thinning out a little bit We do have some liquidity building up above us right around this key gamma level That our options modeling tool at trader 8 has shown Nasdaq's struggling a little bit more than the s and p Which makes sense with rates firming up here And we do see just some stability here in the 10 year after that sell down earlier And finally moving on to crude. Wow. Look at that move Moved up about 35 cents 40 cents and it's now starting to give some of that back very volatile trading this morning and crude lot of cross currents a lot of data to digest And again now some liquidity also building below us This is really kind of an interesting dynamic because there are a lot of cross currents this week Another thing I want to remind folks that are out there When you are in options expiration week A lot of technical analysis is not as efficacious is not as accurate the probabilities that you might be able to align Don't quite work out the same Statistics, you know going back and back testing these things become less reliable in op x week So another thing that I just want to kind of emphasize is don't try to be too much of a hero Don't rely too much on charts when there's so many price agnostic large players having to shift positions in a week like this So just kind of keep that in the back of your head when you're sizing and when you're looking at entries and exits Another low volume push here to the upside just above the point of control on s and p futures See if we can get that 43 77 50 level tagged That's where we have some pretty key gamma exposure. We were looking that at that level earlier in the spx It may act as a level of resistance But breaking above it would be nice to see for buyers and certainly put that 43 80 offer on the horizon and moving above that Would start to look a little bit more constructive to me on the other side of it. However, we're struggling here even on You know without sellers pushing buyers are struggling to get this much above the point of control More call buying in netflix another hundred sixty thousand dollars a premium for the three seventies expiring this friday Looks like there is some aggressive trading here in rates. Yeah, look at that You can see that there was a pretty big iceberg order here Someone bought about 2,500 zn futures You can see that building in the iceberg Subchart as well So that's certainly interesting to see. Let's see what's going on in crude Crude's actually building interesting to see a bid in the tenure as the price of crude is approaching 87 not something you often see Bond prices and crude moving in the same direction And crude is building here. This is looking pretty interesting. I mean if we go pre-market We're now getting back to levels. We haven't seen for over an hour in this contract And if we can break above These pre-market highs, I think we've got quite a bit more upside potential and crude intraday So we'll be watching this one closely I mean crude's much more exciting the s and p. This is like watching paint try right now And this is often what happens on up x weeks particularly we're at these sort of key points You get a lot of sideways chop. So Given the cross currents of different flows happening this morning It's not terribly surprising But let's see here buyers are starting to make another effort a little more volume in this push They did take out that upside offer just around that Key gamma level that's that coalescence we look for now We'd want to see a push and some building a volume above that to start to look at this more constructively If you're a fan of the 10 minute opening range, you also might start to see a potential breakout of that range Shift over to the nasdaq here You can see it's actually not looking much like the s and p at all It's grinding lower It does not seem happy. There's a decent amount of volume in that selling We got industrial production data out And basically it was flat So not much to go on there Bonds are really notes futures giving back some of those Gains from that pop that buying from institutions And that makes more sense given that oil look at that it just continues to push higher Here's a large area of resting liquidity here. This is not good for the market This is not good for equities or for rates if you're looking for reasons to become bullish Seeing this type of price action in crude is giving us the opposite It's giving us reasons to look at this market and say well, this is this is not looking particularly attractive anymore So let's just take a quick look here at Yes And I know that this is just a little bit lagged, but we are not looking particularly healthy here This is this is a you know rejection at the point of control overnight again And now we're rolling over into an area of lower transactional profile on the volume profile and we zoom that out We can see that it's starting to look like We're uh We're rejecting pretty firmly here top trend line hit check Point of control hit check rejection below both check now testing the 20-day moving average And looking weak So this is this is not the look that you want to see if you wanted to get bullish on this market The passive flows from delta and theta decay are not providing enough of a bid and crude is continuing to move higher We looked at those levels from the overnight or the pre-market. We're breaking above So crude now looks constructive. This is a place where if you're intraday trading crude You'd look for it to settle a little bit back at that point of control build some volume and take longs from there We also see liquidity building up above these resting offers are growing and that's also constructive for crude So this price action here is great for energy stocks. It's great for crude oil It is probably not making the market particularly happy You can see the s&p continues to struggle this low volume chop the nazdax more decisively moving lower here And rates are once again under upward pressure is now the 10-year note futures are making new lows You see that you can zoom out. We could see there's that pressure Yeah, and there's some more there's some more selling here in zia and futures as well So you see rates moving higher With crude which makes a lot more sense. There's a positive correlation there And that's putting pressure on the nazdax the more rate sensitive index which recently made new lows pre-market And the s&p is digesting this all There's so much options positioning a rebalance in the s&p that it appears like those cross currents are kind of taking the wheel for now It's all very low volume. Look at these tiny little dots the dots represent the size of the transaction and book map These are very small transaction sizes in the s&p. There's not a lot of conviction in this trading Looking once again at crude here It's testing this point of control that buyers have been able to push higher as they build volume And this kind of goes back to the chart. We were talking about earlier. This is in a structural uptrend energy is in general So seeing some continuation here is not particularly surprising Institutions are selling modestly into this. There was about 100 icebergs sold up here as we had that stop out So maybe that marks a short-term area where there's going to be a little bit of profit taking But overall I like what we're seeing in crude more than any of these other markets today in terms of a long Rates continue to move higher look at bonds even with that large buy we saw earlier It was not enough to stabilize this Z ZN contract for the tenure note futures So you're seeing that grind lower that portends to the nasdaq moving lower, which it is these things are all tied together It's one of the beauties Looking at intermarket dynamics as you start to see these correlations these relationships these dynamics Doesn't mean it works every single moment of every day But the nasdaq is a rate sensitive index. So more often than not you will see this type of outcome See some pretty aggressive call buying and Nvidia here while nasdaq's making new lows This is really looking like this market's now wanting to move lower here Rates and rising crude are spooking people that just saw this Pretty strong retail sales data Not what you want to see if you're hoping that inflation is going away that the economy is softening And that the fed will come to the rescue at some point next year It pushes off that outcome doesn't mean it's not going to happen, but it pushes it off And this is a market that has consistently Underestimated the resolve of this fed for for really a year and a half now So it's no surprise to see that continual recalibration So the nasdaq continues to grind lower. I think that this is this is going to be the weaker index It's more sensitive to rates now down 1.36 percent It's really not been able to catch a bid It just continues to make new lows here So in multiple time frames while they were looking at the 10 minute opening range the five minute opening range And now, you know, we're in that 15 minute opening range and having made a new low All these are pointing to a lower trend day in the nasdaq so far And it's giving back yesterday's gains like essentially they did not happen Let's take a look at crude it continues to push higher here now Remember any kind of geopolitical tensions any kind of supply disruptions any increases in demand are all Going to push this higher and we have all those themes in the background And we have traders and algos continuing to parse all the news that's coming out the implications It might have for global energy But the path of least resistance really the risk here is to the upside And we still see that negative trend in the 10 years they bounce off those lows But we haven't seen that same level of institutional appetite for these since that one push So we see them kind of getting out of the way and uh, you know, I think that that rates still have room to move higher from here And crudes continuing to kind of parse this this point of control So that's something we're going to watch for any kind of extension as we were saying But the the opening range breakout to the upside is at least constructive for now Going back to the s&p It's just chopping this range low volume low conviction not a lot going on here We do now see the most active put contract if we convert it to es levels is about 43 67 50 this is a tool that also I've built for book map It analyzes the flows on the cboe looks at all the options on spx that are trading today And it identifies the key levels for Calls and puts so we can see the call level is actually much more active up here Right just below 44 50. There's 8,000 calls having traded. The put is significantly less active down here So if options buyers are able to actually exert some influence here that could give us an upward push And there's a lot of volume happening around that 4405 level on spx In fact, the total put call ratio going into this morning is 0.48 So let's see the the bulls have an opportunity here They are kind of building this base here, right? Let's see what they can do Remember zeo dte's have a pretty big influence on price discovery. So seeing that level of aggression higher is interesting Can't discount it. So let's zoom out a little bit We could see now the the most active put strike has actually moved lower And we're going to zoom out again here just to watch the price action There's just a tiny bit of institutional selling into this just move here But not much you can see that on the sub chart here as the iceberg levels are falling deeper into negative territory Shifting over to the nasdaq. It just continues to look terrible. Let's be real. It continues to make new lows And it has more aggressive selling the s&p. There's more conviction to sell the nasdaq this morning than the s&p 500 And it looks like we're we're kind of preparing to make yet another new low here And we just did in zn which has a reasonably strong positive correlation with the nasdaq We're making new highs and rates new lows in note futures prices again these intra market dynamics important to look at and Crude unsurprisingly is starting to firm up as well. Let's see if it can make another push Going back to the s&p Just grinding this range Really looking for one way or the other out of this range to get a sense as to direction The nasdaq's clearly moving lower. It favors more downside. The s&p has not completely made up its mind yet We'll zoom out a little bit see these key options levels here You could see the the more active put is building but that most active call is really where all the action is at And you're going to have a lot more strange Options flows like this that are further away from price during options expiration week Which is one of the reasons that we watch this so closely to see if we can discern any signal Folks, if you have any questions for me any feedback anything that you'd like me to look at Feel free to ask in the youtube or on the discord if you're on discord on book map or trader a discord Just tag me in Hope you're enjoying the stream It's a lot of fun to put this stuff out there every week and I am here every week Tuesday at 9 a.m. Eastern I've got about nine minutes left I do want to share a couple things with you all if you want to get 30 off your first month of trader aid plus Use the code book map 30 at checkout. That's a limited time offer You can get access to this stream with all the options levels and all of our other tools our community our insights In a variety of different asset classes It's a lot of fun And then if you like book map and you want the software itself You can get up to 40 off book map by going to trader aid.com slash book map Scroll down to the specials and check it out because you know You too can have these tools and use them as a part of your trading process If you're not ready to do either of those things Check out my youtube It's youtube.com slash mayhem for markets And you can tune into the book map stream Without all the bells and whistles we have on trader aid, but in near time Right there And if you enjoy the stream so far feel free to hit the like button. I'd love to see that go up beyond 10 Maybe we can hit 20 so Now we're starting to see the s&p make a new low It's breaking out of its opening range to the downside This is starting to look much more like these sellers are taking control this morning And I think that could set us up for a negative trend day in the index The nasdaq also very very upfront that it is not having a good day continuing to make new lows Remember we've been talking about this for some time that it's been making negative trends on multiple different opening range time frames Here's another one the 20 minute opening range. We've now made that new low and Continuing to push lower the nasdaq giving up more than yesterday's gains now Looking like it's going to be negative on the week so far 10-year note futures just continue to grind lower just like the nasdaq, but it's slightly less volatile This is still important price action It's part of a broader trend that I think is something to watch out for because as rates rise They're likely to put additional pressure on equities and finally crude remains firm above 87 above the point of control It's building that volume we talked about earlier. That makes me favor more upside here intraday So we'll go back to the s&p. We'll continue to watch this here as we wrap up I'll be closing out the stream at 10 a.m. Not because I want to but because I've got to And I really enjoy streaming for you all So if you like this stuff as much as I do come back next week at 9 a.m Be sure to check out the other work I do at trader aid calm and macro visor calm to learn more about the markets and Some of the actionable insights and analysis that we provide You can see liquidity starting to build below in es We talked about that earlier as one of the signs that you could have some continuation in that downside momentum And it is indeed building below us suggesting that to be the case now typically I'm looking for liquidity in larger size 250 plus contracts That's why the labels are automatically populating at those levels But nevertheless, it's important to watch and we do see that sort of stair step down beginning to form in the bids below us Let's take a look at the nasdaq. Yeah, it just really looks pretty awful this morning Probably set here to make another lower high and then continue But this is just pretty pretty sloppy trading overall Pretty high conviction in the selling of the nasdaq Nvidia is down 7.2 percent intraday here That's the most intraday downside since last november you do have call buyers Shoving over a million dollars of premium into Nvidia Trying to try to take advantage of this dip here And we got a got a bit of a bit off the lows here in the tenure note futures The crude's just continuing to consolidate around that point of control We do see some liquidity building below it, but there also remains plenty above So we'll be watching this one closely today for further opportunities of continuation So we've got less than four minutes left I do want to take a moment again to thank all of y'all for tuning in really appreciate the support I hope this is helpful for learning more about how I watch these intermarket dynamics And maybe learning a little bit about what you could apply to your trading process Getting a better feel for how book map can help and how looking at options Which is where positioning exists and then resting liquidity where you know Participants of the market want to place trades that can be helpful too I really like looking for that coalescence or that convergence as a theme You're welcome trading for a living. Thanks for tuning in So someone on the book map discord asked me What does put and call gamma level mean and and basically it's a representation of What we're modeling dealer exposure to be And so they're levels that we watch because typically there's greater price interaction Around these key levels I was also asked what's the difference between trading forex and futures and what is better And I would say that it really depends on your personality What you enjoy trading there are forex futures like there are currency futures So, you know, if you're trading futures, there's such a broad swath of different instruments to trade You can trade equity futures bond futures commodity futures. You can trade futures on volatility You can trade futures on weather and water and all kinds of crazy stuff Like there's futures for everything of course I like to trade the more liquid futures some of the other more esoteric stuff is almost untradable But I like futures the most out of futures versus forex if I had to choose between one Because a I can still trade forex and futures, but b there's tax advantages to trading futures You don't have to deal with wash sale rules. You have the 60 40 treatment on your capital gains So for me futures is the trading instrument of choice. I also like that You know, if I was to have to choose between futures and stocks You have those same rules, but you also have, you know, favor more favorable tax treatment as I was saying But you also have the opportunity to trade the market basically 23 hours a day And if there's some kind of risk off event that happens overnight, you'll be stopped out of your position You know with equities, you're not really going to see that until Pre-market around 4 a.m. Where you might have a big gap down that eats you And you know takes a lot of your capital or if your stops aren't set to trigger until market open You know, you could still have that kind of event So for me, I like futures a lot better for risk management for the tax treatment and for the liquidity So I hope that helps I know that there's a lot of folks out there that just trade ETFs and stocks. There's nothing wrong with that You just need to understand that there are different tax consequences, particularly for short-term gains in wash sales So less than a minute left Really hope you enjoyed the stream. Thank you so much for tuning in. It's been a very very interesting morning I still think that, uh, you know, we have a market that's that's not having a particularly great day It is nice to see the nasdaq trying to put up a little bit of a fight here But overall underneath the surface, you know, the broader trends remain down for equities today Has not been a great day given the amount of passive flows that buyers can't Give us a bigger fight here. So I'm not particularly encouraged by this price action I think it's a Downwardly trending day in both the s&p and the nasdaq and I would look for continuation of upside in oil So thanks again for everyone, uh, tuning in supporting my work Check out the stuff we do at trade raid and macro visor and stay tuned. I'll be back next Tuesday at 9 a.m. Eastern