 Let's get over to our M. Mr. Tim or as we do each and every Thursday at 20 past the hour And you can reach Tim every trading day folks at odd dot or dash That's odd dash oracle dot com. That's odd dash oracle dot com Tim's gonna be doing a workshop for us in the Next few weeks. We'll announce this workshop next week. You have some great tools Tim ord. What's going on? All right We kind of I'm on an update last week. We were looking at the gold market Yes, and and I'm thinking we're gonna move higher all the way into August and possibly the 44 area on gdx. Okay, and since then the market has in my pain At least gdx. Well, I think it's probably an abc down So I wanted to update those charts what they said, okay, we did Uh The first chart is the see which one here Which one do you want me to start with Tim is a gdx of the 18-day average of the gdx advanced decline percent Okay, I have window up. Yep. Yeah is the 18-day average of gdx up down volume percent. Okay, and his yeah when history According to history and how when both these indicators get above 40 which they did on April 4th I got the price of their one got to 45 the other ones about almost 42 over 42 And from there the market rally leaves at least Last three months and as high as six months, but a lot of them around the four or five months so he had uh Say four months to auger so from April you get august And a lot of times season alley in august is is used some sort of a high or low in the gold market so well since then the market has actually backed off then and What I want to show is the next indicator Um, which is a trend following indicator that's chart two And this is a 50-day average to the bottom window Is the 50-day average of the up down volume and next higher window Is a 50-day average of advanced decline percent, okay for gdx and my point is as long as those are actually Ideally you want both those indicators above zero when that happens you get in that trend going and that blue shaded area This chart goes back to 2009 and now the blue shaded areas are times when both indicators are above zero And I actually checked today and uh Current reading for the advanced decline percent the gd average is 9.43 and the Updown volume indicators is still over one 1.05 So even though the market has pulled back these indicators are updated in our days So these are current readings. Well, this really I text you Uh, yes, I sent you these charts about four or five hours ago, right? I just checked in there a few minutes ago and they're still above Uh, zero as long as they hold above zero The trend in general should continue. You can have some corrections, but in general it identifies the trend So in my view even though we pulled back here if you do your fibonacci relationship, you're a confluence thing Yes, uh, if you take to the bottom of the october And the bottom of march Uh, the march one comes in 50 percent retracement The october one comes in at uh, right around that 31 area and a 38.2 percent retracement comes in around 31 area So you have a kind of confluence of around that 31 area, which pretty much we hit today So i'm thinking this is not a start of a decline But since both indicators are above zero Looks like to me anyhow this this rally is is uh Should continue. I think I don't think there's a Um a top of any consequence here. So right now I want to go back to how we started off Meaning how we used to start it off because you and I are used to this and this is this can get confused And sometimes to the audience and specifically what I mean folks is this and you've seen me do this a dozen times Man saying okay, the market's going high, but we got an abc down, okay Um, but that's what happens that that's the reality, okay So it's so cool that you did that tim no seriously I mean because the bottom line is that I I actually you know, I'm with you a thousand percent here, man Um, and that's what's so tricky about the gold market, right? I mean the the gold market loves trading like this, man, you know, it really does Yeah, you know and actually, you know, I wish I had more actually there's one more indicator Before we get away from this. Okay is on page four that fourth page. Okay. I have a chart four. Yep And it's there's a lot of different types feminine indicators. I haven't found a really an ideal one yet But this is uh, this is a sprout which is basically you you can buy it and actually buy is your physical gold sprout fund. Yep Yeah, it's a sprout fund and it's a physical gold fund. So Anyhow, you can buy it right now for a discount of 1.16 percent. This is actually yesterday's close Okay, and when it gets up around zero percent downwards is is that par is when times you can have a Sometimes short term top sometimes your mute term tops, but at least a short term top And we're not even zero yet. We're still at 1.16 percent. So I'm thinking We don't have enough confidence. I guess we don't have enough Well, there's still fear in the market because this thing's still selling a discount It gets down to around three percent kit at discount Um, which is has been, you know, major lows in the past. That's where they I see Yeah, yeah the march the march of 2020 low came when down Uh, uh, three percent discount and the one we had here just recently that was what looks like about december of um Of last year it got down below three percent But you get up to zero percent, which is all those little blue lines across there in that shaded light area. Okay. That's where we can have um We can have a short term pullbacks. We're not there yet So I think we'll get there maybe in august of this year Yeah, but uh, I kind of reinforces my idea that we're probably far as the gold market's concerned Even though it's a little bit of fear out there. This is just a kind of shake out Weekends out before the next rally Because I may change my mind But according to the indicators today There's more room to the upside on gdx than actually gold So Yeah, no, no, listen, I understand man You know, it's wild tim because we've been doing this so long and even when we were trading together in the 90s It's it's intriguing And kind of the way that we look at the market that you can actually What happens folks is that you have to be able to flip like this. Okay, that's the bottom line It's not flipping on the longer term. It's that it had the extension coming out And the bottom line is that you're going to get up and it seems you get to pull back And you know as tim has, you know, explained to you how these are set up, um, you know In the longer picture, it doesn't mean a lot and the shorter picture it does Though because what does happen is that the gold equities themselves move so fast That's I mean that's that's what's, you know, always intriguing about The gold market in general, you know what I'm saying, you know, so Pretty clean that that dollar moved him the dollar's moving like crazy, man I mean, that's what's hitting this thing. There's no doubt, you know what I mean um Yeah, I really don't follow the dollar that much but I'm a little kind of surprised that We're down, uh, I thought we might hold at the previous highs, but the market's always Seems like the trend line stuff and the um Normal technical analysis for gold doesn't work as well. Yeah, you have to kind of find new indicators. So stay stay right there Tim we have a quick break. We're going to bring you right back Welcome back folks as our dial industrials are up to you get the nazik up 150 s&p's are up 25 We're talking with our mam is the tim odd and you can reach tim folks at odd Dash oracle.com 24 hours a day So tim, do you want to stay on this chart and we're going to go to another chart? What would you like to do? Uh, we go to chart three actually I sent you over another chart um I do a lot of stuff with ratios and stuff and yeah, and uh, did you You happen to get it to you in the email just picture of it I got four shots Right. Yeah, you got one more. I got one more. Okay, cool one second. He'll it Now go ahead. You can start talking. I can get it over there. Go ahead. All right. Yeah, I just uh anyhow, the first chart number three uh, the middle window is the spx but the The bottom window is a five day average of the spx of x ratio This kind of looks like the big picture. We showed this picture last week. Yeah, and I was predicting uh, funny how in a nutshell Uh, the bottom window, which is the five week s spx ratio When that diverges from the s and p's Either get a top or you get a bottom and it works really well at tops and I pointed out the bigger time frames Uh, we had the top here back in January 2022 Then that top back in in what probably February of 2000 or uh, funny how that previous top Okay, well, I light it in in green there like green So now the market On the spx is actually going five ways here since uh, February of this year May I went down a little bit came back or approximately right around the February highs We're kind of almost like breaking out right now. But anyhow, if you notice the bottom chart there The five week spx vix ratio has made higher highs not lower highs But higher highs The spx vix ratio leads the way for the s and px So that's predicting that the market is not making a top here But it's building the sideways trading ranges that's going on since last may Uh, it's going to break out to the upside according to this ratio breaking out above the previous highs As the nasdaq already did right you're you're high Pardon I said as the nasdaq is already broken out, you know Yeah nasdaq breaking out is leading away. But if you look at this ratio though It's higher now than it was back in May of last year. It's the highest highs been over the last You know year So so anyhow, it leaves the way So we're breaking out to the upside if you do the The analysis here take the width of the spx and you add it on over the trading range of the last Well last year last 12 months and how and you add that on you come back up to probably the January 2020 high I think ultimately we're probably going to hit up there Boy, that's going to be a top or not. Don't know but we'll probably at least going to test it Then from there less determined but the market in my opinion Is isn't uh, it's in a healthy position. I've I've seen Selling climaxes in the uh, we're calling off where and along with the summation index and both of them Got into what they call initiation of the rally type readings. Yeah, so this sideways pattern It's building cause To move up not to move, you know back down. This is a halfway point down move up No, it's a bombing process that may go back up and test it january 2022 high. So All right I'll tell Okay, can we go through the um the chart you gave me with the bologna band pinch? Well, uh, oh, uh this current one. Yes All right. Yeah, I wanted to point that out. It's I do a lot of stuff with bologna. They're really helpful too and right and Uh, actually if you want to make life easy for you Look at the weekly chart and along the stocks above the mid bologna band The stock's in an uptrend and that goes along with indexes too if If you look at this chart just going back to far as like you could go here If you're along above the mid bologna band, you know, you stayed long for weeks. It's not months And if you look at the you know the march of 2020 Low or two out 2020 low you got in kind of late, but if you got in there, um You know, you would have been long for almost a year all the way up into um Um, well be january 2020 high then finding fell below the mid bologna band Yes, and in general we've been above the mid bologna band since um, it looks like about What? February or not February probably january there or something and we're still above the mid bologna band so And now your your bologna bands are starting to pinch here When you get a pinching bologna band, I mean the volatility is going to increase. That's what happens in trading ranges Interesting start to squeeze. Yeah that trading range is is going to break out. I didn't tell you what direction Uh, but it tells you instead of moving sideways, you're going to start an impulse wave So the bologna band pinch here suggesting we're pretty close to an impulse way starting. Yeah, and in my opinion since You know the five-week spx vx ratio is making the bullish divergence here to break out My opinion will be to the upside and you could probably see energy coming into the market Maybe starting this month Still maybe june and possibly you know rally through the summer That's how I had because of the bologna band pinch and And it looks bullish. So You know, I remember tim that when we actually used to have uh, you know, john bolinger on quite a bit and uh You know what happens folks is that this is now i'm going back to the 90s But it's crazy because that's when I remember specifically yahu was riding this band and he was speaking About the aspect that it can ride that band for so long. It's amazing, right? So Yeah, this is always intriguing watching how these uh bands shake out man But I like I like how it's set up. There's no doubt. Yeah This this this may stay above the you know, we've been above the bolinger band for you know, quite a few weeks now Yeah, and so we we may start to trend but it's a good ambient term indicator, you know, you don't have to Uh, I mean you get whipped around a little bit but right in trend this stays above the mid bolinger band and is Days there for months and months. Oh, it's a heck of a good trend. So um But there's a lot of bullishness in the market and you know, you look at Uh, I do some stuff with cinema too. I do that individual investor thing and okay And they're I didn't have that shark shown because I didn't think we'd have time to get to it Yeah, uh, they're pretty much uh in adult rooms and and you know, you have your clients probably talking to you about There's no way this mark's gonna be bullish with you know, whatever reason Yeah, and it defines the odds, you know, it's uh It does on the other side of the fence. You want to be on the other side of the fence. So all right You gotta love it, right So, yeah, let me ask you this what you know, just in general you only get like a minute left But in general like what have you thought about the market like the last five or 10 years in general? Um I don't know that there's just a gap there to give you a statistic 74 percent of the time going back to 1950 the market's been up. Yeah, exactly dividends is 81 Okay, so you really don't want to bet against the market But if you get, you know, big declines they come every once in a while We had one obviously starting to come January 2020 Yes, but you know, they're really defying those bottoms What what I've learned over the years is You got to go where the panic is if you don't get panicked you don't have a bottom So I learned over the years right long as you get plenty of panic You know, you want to buy those bottoms and ride the trend up because in general 75 percent of the time the market's up every year right on up, baby Tim or listen man, you have a great one. Say fun. We'll talk to you next week Tim All right. Thank you. Thank you. Stay right there folks to come right back