 Welcome traders to another Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 23rd of May with me, Patrick Manley. On the macro side of things, Davos World Economic Forum kicks off today. Sunday, global leaders will meet in Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022. This year's event is centered around history of a turning point government policies and business strategies, where the Ukraine crisis likely continues to take the spotlight. German Chancellor Schultz, US climate envoy Kerry, NATO Secretary General Saltenberg and European Commission President von der Leyen are among the event headliners. The leaders are likely to pledge support for Ukraine whilst telegraphing a shift away from the Russian energy to clean energy and will likely reaffirm vows to fight inflation. Major and imminent policy decisions are unlikely to be agreed upon at this gathering. Moving to the data calendar now for the US, kick things off on Monday with April Chicago Fed activity index, last time at 0.44 print, elevated cost pressures are a key concern for manufacturers at this stage. Heading into Tuesday, we get May S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs, last time out 59.2, looking for a 57.9 print, continues to point to robust momentum in both sectors, although price pressures are an ongoing risk because we will also get services PMIs on Tuesday, last time out 55.6, looking for 55.2 this time. And we will also get May Richland Fed index, last time 14, now looking for a 9, sourcing materials and labour still a big challenge there. We will also get April new home sales, last time negative 8.6%, looking for a negative 1.7 print this time, rising mortgage rates beginning to slow sales activity. Moving into Wednesday, we get the April Durable Goods Orders, last time 1.1% for 0.6% this time, focus still around supply issues being the major headwinds. We also get the FOMC main meeting minutes on Wednesday, focus on discussions of the path or policy for the remainder of 2022. Then heading into Thursday, we get Q1 GDP annualized, last time negative 1.4%, looking for a negative 1.3%, a very small revision expected for the second estimate for the Q1. We also get jobless claims, likely to remain at very low levels. April pending home sales, negative 1.2% last time, looking for a negative 1.8% as demand is being cooled off by these higher interest rates. We also get May, Kansas City Fed index, manufacturing outlook, still positive but starting to appear a little bit fragile. Then we ran out the week on Friday with the April wholesale inventories, business striving to lift productivity against these supply chain issues. We also get April personal income, looking for a 0.5% print, purchasing power remains a concern, but the lifting services spending should be a clear positive. We also get the April PCE deflator, last time 0.9%, looking for a 0.2%. PCE inflation looks to have crested, but price pressures will only slowly abate through 2022. We ran out the week with the May University of Michigan sentiment, consumer optimism hinges on the inflation outlook at this stage in the US. Now moving to the charts, the dollar index testing pivotal trend support here just above that 103 level. I've been looking for a close back through 103.90 to engage on the long side, looking for an extension up into our target zone, just below the 108 handle. However, if we take out the trend line support, then I'd be looking for a three way corrective move back into test the just below the 101 handle and we'll see if buyers re-engage there. Moving to the Eurozone, starting the week on Tuesday with global manufacturing PMIs, looking for a 55 print there, also services PMI, looking for a 58.1. Russia, Ukraine, and rising cost pressures are a key risk to the European manufacturing and services sectors at this stage. And then we move on to Friday, where we ran out the week in the Eurozone with April M3 money supply, looking for last time at 6.3%. Credit data also due liquidity ample for the economy at this stage in the Eurozone. So, light data coming there. I should also know on Monday we do get May E-phone Business Climate Survey out of Germany, looking for a 91 print there. The Russian Ukraine crisis still weighing heavily on the outlook there. So, the technical picture for the Euro, obviously, pretty much the inverse to the dollar index we are testing that trend channel resistance. Any move back down through the 104.60s, either to engage on the short side, looking for a move down to test parity. However, if we can get a move through the trend line resistance, we don't have the potential for a three-way move to take us back into that 108 handle. So, any pull back there and inverse head and shoulders type pattern will be an opportunity to buy counter trend loans targeting that 108 test. Moving to the UK, Monday we get May right move house prices. Demand is looking to soften here as these rate hikes in the UK starts to take effect. Then on Tuesday, we get the manufacturing and services PMIs. The UK are better positioned to weather headwinds, but a sharp slowdown in activity is still likely. That rounds out the data in the UK for the week ahead. So, let's move to the technical setup here. Sterling trying to mount a corrective move here to test the trend channel resistance that comes in at 126.27. I've been watching for bearish reversal patterns in this area to engage on the short side targeting that pivotal test of the 120. At this stage, difficult to get really constructive on Sterling until we take out this trend line resistance. Moving to Japan, the data of notes is on Tuesday, services and manufacturing PMIs. The easing of health restrictions should start to support services and Chinese demand and supply issues are still going to be a concern for the manufacturing sector based on the lockdowns in China. Moving to the charts here, we are looking for a three-way corrective move to test the quality objective at 126.16. From there, I'm watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side, ultimately then looking for a move up for a test above 133. At this stage, you can take a loss of 123.80s to suggest a more meaningful hike to be in place and then we'll be looking for a deeper corrective move back down into monthly projected range support 121.60s. Rounding out the week down under in Australia, most importantly at this stage is the elections that have been held over the weekend in Australia. They have seen a wave of green and independence pushing for aggressive targets to carbon emissions and they're likely to pressure the incoming Labour government to step up its climate plans if it wants to pass any legislation. Moving to the data schedule for Australia, RBA assistant governor will be speaking on financial markets on Monday, Kent speaking at the Cagner News Summit. Then moving to Wednesday, we get Q1 construction work done. Looking for a positive 0.9% print, the reopening bounce is likely to be tempered by weather disruptions in Australia. We also then get RBA assistant governor speaking on the economy, Ellis speaking at the UDIA 2022 conference on Wednesday. Then on Thursday, we get Q1 private new capital expenditure. Looking for a positive 1.3% print there. Looking for an elevated print based on equipment spending, construction, wet weather, there's likely impact some of the enthusiasm there. Rounding out the week on Friday with April retail sales in Australia, looking for a positive 1.7% print, sustained solid momentum through Q1 on the reopening of the economy there. Looking at the charts here for the Aussie, we are coming up to test the trend channel resistance here, just below the 71 handle. So I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns here to engage on the short side, targeting the move down to monthly projective range support and the equality objective 66.20s to 66.60. At this stage, it will take close through the trend channel resistance above 71 to suggest we have a more meaningful corrective trade to make, but at this stage we're focused on the trend channel resistance. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 23rd of May. As always, trade has planned the trade, trade the plan and most importantly manage all risk. Until next time, thanks very much.