 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN Wednesday morning. It's Fed Day, folks. We have a decision at 2 p.m. Eastern time. You'll have a press conference at 2.30. Markets this morning, higher territory, actually above any of the highs that we got yesterday, that you're talking about towards the close of action on Monday. Remarkable turnaround from where we were yesterday at about 10 in the morning. You're talking about a low of 42.76 were 134 points, 134 S&P points. You make it down after the close last night, Microsoft out with their earnings. They're trading higher this morning. Man, they spiked lower last night, though, on the first headline number. That sent futures lower across the board. You're at the S&P 500 futures trading at a low of 42.96, just from 4.45 last night, folks. Remarkable resurgence in the markets. You're talking about higher territory, S&P's up 1.36%. NASDAQ up 2.07%, zooming in on the action right near the highs. Now, as I stated, S&P's were basically, we did peak above actually where you were on the close of action on Monday. NASDAQ 100, pumping right up against that level, 14,431. You were up as high as about 14,500 towards the end of action on Monday. You jump over to the Dow, up 305.34,491 after almost getting a 32,000 handle on Monday, and you get the Russell. Back above 2000, the Russell trading at 2027, Bitcoin catching a bid, crypto catching a bid. Now, interesting action yesterday, yeah, you had a little bit of volatility in terms of Bitcoin, but not quite the correlation that you saw on Monday, right? Look at the sell-off on Monday, you trade higher, you can't really find as large of a sell-off in Bitcoin yesterday when the markets were kind of falling out of bed. So much for the correlation as it varies, and you have Bitcoin, 38,375. You jump over to Ethereum, up 200 bucks at 26. Same thing for Ethereum. Yeah, you did have a sell-off at one point, but nothing like what the market experienced and nothing like what it saw on Monday. Crude, we're talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad, at 40 past the hour from 4x dash trading dash unlock.com. Just in the last two days in the crude contract, you're up more than $5 right now from Monday's low, you're above where you were on Sunday, and you just got above where you were on Thursday or Wednesday, putting this on a daily. That's a high, folks, 87.20. We're trading right now at 86.76 in the price of crude. Gold contract this morning, we were higher. We're giving back some of those gains. Gold makes up to 18.54 yesterday. You're back basically giving up yesterday's action. You're negative $10 to 18.42 in gold. Silver is off eight pennies dropping a bit. Even in the last few minutes, silver is above $24 just recently. You're now trading at 23.80. And on Fed Day, we jump to the all-important notes and bonds. You're looking at the 10-year right now. Positive by two ticks at 1.2806. We have a yield right now just under 1.78% on the 10-year. 1.78%. You check it out on a daily basis. Some pretty remarkable action to kick off the year. You kick off 2022 with price action. I gotta find this exactly. There it is. That's the kickoff of the year. 130.13, you trade down more than three full points. And since then, we've bounced more than a point. Remarkable January action for the 10 years. We're sitting at 1.78%. And let's jump over to the VIX. As we round out the morning wrap up, we spike at 38.94 and just like that, we've given up $10 of action on the VIX from that spike. Now, that spike was a couple days ago. Interesting in terms of the accelerations we've had. Yesterday, you got all the way up to almost 36. That looks like a spike, folks. I mean, that looks like a peak that is made here. You take a look at the spikes we've had on a weekly basis going back to since the pandemic. You see that spike? It's a legitimate spike. It's in the ballpark of the spikes from previous spikes of terms of market sell-offs. Now, it doesn't mean we might have another spike coming down the way. But you can see the action. We make it to as high as 38.94. Well over any spike, excuse me, since October of 2020 in terms of VIX action as we back off on the VIX down $2.26 so far this morning. All right, let's jump over to Microsoft, man. They kick off the tech earnings. And we'll talk about saving yourself. There's the action on Microsoft last night. Let me see what I have. What is this Fibonacci line I got up here? Well, we can just do that away, folks. That gave it all back from October 4th. That's remarkable. Let's take that Fibonacci line off there. Since, I mean, we got Basil Chapman, our man coming up next, folks. He talks about those cup formations. He talks about symmetry on both sides of the cup formation. If that's not symmetry, folks, what is? You go from October 4th of 280 up to 350. You come down on October. Yep, that's a daily, folks. That is Monday's action to 276.05. Now, last night, you made it down to 269 after hours. Pretty short lived. Conference call begins at 5.30. The stock rebound, you trade back up to 304. We'll get a little bit more into their numbers. Personal computing, a decent beat for them. Saving them on the revenue side. Guidance, pretty decent as well. When you talk about cloud, one of the numbers out there, and we'll get into the exact numbers because it's important, but one of the numbers was growing at 32% versus 36, I think they are graded on quite a high scale when you're talking about the multiples that they earn. They quite lived up to expectations. And this morning, they're up $16 for Microsoft. Now, they had about a $20 move. So pretty close to in line with the expected move, but man, it's gonna be an interesting open, especially when you get this type of action after hours. Sometimes that stock may have some action one way or the other on the open, but you're gonna open about 16 bucks in the positive on Microsoft this morning. Let's jump around to some of the other fang stocks. As we have the NASDAQ 100, up 285 points. You had Amazon closing out yesterday at about $27.99. And as you see, all the markets accelerated lower initially on that Microsoft news, right? Interesting, take a look even like Amazon. From 2,800 down to a low of almost 2,500, conference call begins at 530 and Amazon pops with the whole market popping. We jump over to Apple, whoops, yes. Similar action on Apple as you trade down to almost 157 last night on Apple. You're trading at 163, folks, that's $6. That's about $100 billion in market cap that Apple just popped since last night. $100 billion market cap, Apple, from last night. We jump over to Google shares. Let's check it out. Google catching a pop from 2534. You're trading near 2,600 this morning. Tesla shares trading at 956 from 918. All right, let's jump around and see what else we have going on. Jumping to the Fed. So we get a 2 p.m. announcement. We have a 2.30 p.m. press conference. It's gonna be a wild one, folks. The interesting thing is that sometimes, even if you knew what the Fed was gonna do, I'm not sure we all understand how the market is gonna process that, which is pretty interesting to say. In layman's terms, of course, you start getting some severe tightening here. You get anything that indicates that they're gonna ramp things up on an accelerated basis. Yeah, the market's gonna freak out on that and put it lightly. But I don't imagine that's the plan for the Federal Reserve today. They may indicate that a March rate hike is coming. I don't envision 50 basis points, folks. We're gonna be talking about our man, Kevin Hinks, coming up next after the break. He is a big fan of Chairman Powell, probably rightfully so with how he's meandered this pandemic and the stimulus involved. But now comes the delicate moment of pulling that stimulus and rates and so forth out from underneath the market. And I don't envision he wants to shock the market with a 50 basis point cut, folks. And I don't envision that he thinks we're quite there in terms of expectations. I mean, economists still think inflation is gonna subside over the next year. He's not the only one. Keep that in mind when people start talking about surprise 50 basis point cuts. Hikes, hikes, hikes. I gotta start thinking about hikes, right? We'll talk to Kevin next, but think about that. He is not in the business. I don't think he needs to yet. Maybe hikes at every meeting. That's a little bit more possible. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back. 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You got Microsoft right now jumping over after their earnings trading up 303 from 288. You see the rebound from 269. Remarkable last night. Let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hicks. Every trading day, folks, noon Eastern time, fast market on the TD Ameritrade Network. Kevin Hicks, Tom White, the team at TD Ameritrade Network breaking down the day's market action. They walk you through hypothetical trade setups, folks. Trade management, rolling, defined risk, talking options, talking earnings, talking Fed Day. Kevin Hicks, good morning. It's too much, Tommy, I can't do it. Oh, it's never too much, Kevin, don't get us. Let's go, where do we start off, man? It's overload. Yeah, how about this? Right, it's remarkable. We've been about three hours of the trading day. We're gonna get Jerome Powell speaking and then Elon Musk speaking. So anyone who enjoys the market or at least has the same sickness that I do, they're gonna have a fun day and we're off to a great start so far with the NASDAQ up over 2%. And that's pre-Jerome Powell. So this could be a big day. It's really gonna be what Jerome Powell says, right? I mean, we've already had, did you look at the overnight trade in Microsoft? It was incredible. The range that this stock has traded in already. Boeing has had a big move this morning already even though they came out with charges. So I think this is gonna be a pretty crazy trading day for everyone so buckle up and keep your powder dry, Tommy. That's to say the least, man. Last night, Kevin, when I saw those Microsoft earnings, you know, right out of the gate down to 269, it was down at 275 for a while until that conference call began. And I said, this is not what the market wanted, man, in terms of the volatility. We have, yeah, Monday's action, 200 points almost in the S&Ps. Tuesday's action, 100 points almost, saves itself after the close, the kickoff of tech earnings, the fag stocks especially. Microsoft, pretty remarkable, over $50 billion in revenue in 90 days, man. They're growing at a, you know, even if you're talking about maybe a deceleration was one of the headlines in Azure, remarkable growth across the board on that company and they're trading higher this morning up to 304. So talk about saving itself. I was a little sweating last night, Kevin, just because I said, man, the volatility coming in with Microsoft trading down $20 out of the gate but they go over the numbers, they go over the forecast and the market likes it and maybe that's a sign of thanks to come in as we commit to Fed Day. So we all know you guys are gonna talk a little bit, I'm sure about the market action and Mr. Jerome Powell but what do you guys have coming up for the segments this afternoon at noon today on Fast Market, Kevin? Well, as you know, yesterday we already looked at Intel but so today we're definitely obviously like William was gonna talk about Tesla during their segment. So the middle segment will be Tesla. We'll surely trade one of the tech stock either Lamb research, we've got Mastercard but today we'll really focus on Tesla. That'll be the lion's share. We've got McDonald's out before the open. So a lot of good names to go over today, Tommy. It is pretty cool, Kevin. I got to think of some platform up here, the analyze tab. I got the market maker one day expecting to move $71 as an options trader. I know you've talked about it many times. We always got new listeners and viewers coming in. For those not familiar and they're looking at it right now I got Tesla up here, you're trading at 9.56 pre-market but as of the close yesterday, you were at 9.18. The thinkorswim platform has a move up there. We'll call it $71, 70.999 as they come in. Can you talk just real briefly, Kevin where that number comes from and basically what it means as a trader? Yeah, when you look at Tesla's trading page on the thinkorswim platform right in the middle of that page on the third line from the top there's 3M and a number. And that number for Tesla today is about $71 plus or minus which means the implied volatility in the front exploration currently trading about 1.39 and a half. The very second that it goes over the second exploration right that's the February 4th exploration that creates the market maker move. That's what it does. It's not something you can call up or look at but when that front exploration goes over the second exploration is when that's triggered and it shows an event that's happening during this week. That's what it shows and it shows the expected move in either direction that the implied volatility is calling for Tommy and that's what the market maker move is on the thinkorswim platform. So right now based on a 1.39 and a half implied vow in Tesla, the move is about $71, Tommy. It's so cool, man because if you're trading options at all and even if you're trading equities folks understanding the volatility that the market is pricing in around an earnings event especially with everything going on right now a company like Tesla that we know can be particularly volatile it's especially important when you're trading options because that's a lot of premium Kevin as we know if you're selling premium man $71 of premium not bad when you can get that type of a move. I mean that gives you leeway you're talking about if you go either direction Kevin $140 in either direction in terms of the price action you give yourself. So with that I'm gonna give you one more question and it's gonna be the money question we all wanna know what are you looking for from Chairman Powell whether it's an indication are we gonna get an indication do you think Kevin that March is when that meeting comes? I started my take is maybe we get that the 50 basis point conversation is I think a little too much that Chairman Powell has no interest surprising the market and he doesn't need to just yet but what are you looking for from the chairman this afternoon? I think in my opinion and this is just my opinion I think Jerome Powell is has never talked about connecting the dots between finishing the taper and raising interest rates. I think during his confirmation hearings he struck a different tone that he may not strike in these. So I think at the end of the day you're gonna hear Jerome Powell say interest rates probably need to go higher but they're gonna be lower for longer and I also think that Jerome Powell is gonna say we're gonna be data dependent and we're gonna he's going to be the to summarize he's going to be less hawkish than he was during his confirmation hearings Tommy. All we got to our opinions man and that's pretty close to my opinion as well but we're gonna find out today man at 2.30 p.m. Eastern time on that press conference it's a great day to be here man. We appreciate the conversation the education as always we'll be watching the show today and Tesla right now trading at 961 bucks on the open. Thanks so much Kevin have a great show man. Thanks for having me on Tommy have a great day. You too folks tune in every day I'm sure it'll be a good one today with everything they're talking about coming up fed day and you got test learnings and if you're not familiar with it folks you know thinkorswim TD Ameritrade, Charles Schwab they are a sponsor okay but you get into this and I would use this platform anyway I know I'm biased I put it out there you can take that for what it's worth but the information especially as an options trader as an active trader the thinkorswim platform you can't beat it which is why they're keeping this around no matter what even on the acquisitions TD Ameritrade picks them up they pick them up for the platform Charles Schwab picks them up they keep thinkorswim because they know the asset they have and I believe it Tesla $71 right so you get into it you pull up all right so Kevin was talking about it here's your front month all right you want action through the earnings $71 you want action through Friday you're talking about a $93 move. Now as an options trader folks if you're looking for volatility on one way or one direction or the other let's bring this down a little bit that's a huge move that you need just to recoup your investment as an options trader the other way you do that is if you don't think it has the move and this is where our opinions come into everything okay and it's figuring out the best strategy possible for your market opinion and bias all right maybe you're the one selling the premium when you're gonna get possibly a $93 move through Friday stay tuned folks we'll be right back for the open are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com the Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas join the den and surround yourself with the 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markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim for more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com Welcome back folks we got markets open and we got markets in positive territory we get the S&Ps up 61 points right now that's 1.4% really remarkable folks in terms of you know we talked about Monday's action I pulled out the article on yesterday's program if you were watching talking about the times that the market has come back from almost a 5% decline haven't seen that happen since about 2008 when you had it happen a couple of times we had it happen eight times between the years of 2000 and 2002 from about August I think it was in 2000 the next 24 months you had that go in a period of eight times you saw the market come back from a greater than 4% decline I was joking saying well what happens if you do it two days in a row show me some statistics that you do it two days in a row and we didn't do it two days in a row but boy rational markets these markets folks I don't know what to tell you when the market literally does 200 points on Monday does 100 points on Tuesday and now we come into fed day which is usually one of the more volatile events of the week the month the quarter could be one of the more volatile events for the year as chairman Powell is right on the cusp at least of indicating a lift off on rates that is usually a period that at least ahead of that period right market is forward looking so it would make sense that the market would get ahead of rates rising which obviously it has to kick off the year that's part of what's going on here nonetheless you get the point volatility in spades in a big way as we commit to some big earnings Tesla Microsoft will see how Microsoft jumping over to their open right now trading higher up 6% right now pretty in line with the expected move about $20 on earnings but man yeah you had quite an opportunity last night in terms of this equity was trading down there right out of the gate you hit 269 but you could call it a fair price of about 273 274 273 for the better part of about an hour and a half conference call begins at 530 and the volatility 15 minutes later kicks off and by 615 you're trading it through 299 75 I was gonna say 300 let's jump around some of the other fang stocks as we know they all traded with Microsoft last night Amazon up a decent 2.6% to kick things off we jump over to Apple shares up 1.9% to kick things off Google shares this morning up 2.4 we jump over to Boeing Boeing believe they had their numbers right yes they had their numbers I got the article up I wasn't sure if it was just their numbers or or just revealing information or outlook Boeing down 1% you were a size 210 they're pretty decent numbers when you look at the cash flow side of things so they had to take a 3.5 billion dollar charge on the 787 Dreamliner generates positive cash flow for the first time since 2019 they have stopped production problems have stopped going from delivering the 787 Dreamliner for the past 15 months third consecutive annual loss 1030 p.m. I am 1030 about in an hour you're gonna have a call with analysts so look for a little bit of volatility during our man Basel Chapman's call program coming up next at 1030 so the one time charge you're gonna have to use things here which is a loss of 769 a share market was looking for 42 cents revenue they miss 414.79 versus 16.59 quite a miss indeed they lost 4.29 billion dollars in the year improvement from 2020 I guess when you lost 12 billion dollars almost net loss of 4.16 in the quarter less than half of the 8.44 billion it lost a year earlier for the quarter so that's quite a loss sales fell 3% from a year ago it's a rebuilding year as you know Boeing they're dealing with a couple woes and a couple different aspects of their business but the Dreamliner production has driven up costs and the entire debacle has costed 5.5 billion and that includes 2 billion in additional costs through next year some big one man now Boeing take a look at this thing on a weekly you were in a trendline out of the depths of the COVID those at 89 bucks but man you've been chopping around with 200 for Boeing's about 190 there maybe and that is we traded down today alone now that's the weekly hold on yeah 190 is where this thing's had a couple bounces not the action you want out of the gate on Boeing shares quite the sell off you were just trading at 208 just like that we had a 199 handle in the open there alright let's jump around Microsoft real quick I wanted to go over their numbers so shares gain on forecast for Azure cloud growth second quarter revenue profit get a boost from office and windows they sold a lot of computers as well in here folks let's see you get into the numbers yeah how about I mean I said to our man Kevin Hicks 50 billion dollars folks in 90 days that's the first time that they've topped 50 billion dollars in a quarter Azure revenue 46% staggering growth and that's a deceleration by the way 46% is a deceleration which is what caused the flip out last night okay the headline numbers when it comes out instantly are missing growth numbers for the cloud segment of their business that's what sent that stock down to 269 you get into it a little bit more though the forecast is okay which is what saved it on the conference call now there is your declining growth number for Microsoft's okay 46% you were up at about 50% now what they do is that is a sore total revenue on the quarter climb 20% 20% you're growing at 20% and you're doing 51.7 billion dollars staggering growth at those levels as we all know and commercial cloud sales so that will include a sore okay rose 32% to 22.51 billion gross margin in that business narrowed slightly to 70% gross margins of 70% and you're growing at 32% to $22.1 billion now I started off the program saying I believe the previous growth on that entire segment commercial cloud sales was 36% so that's the difference that you get there we're gonna call it let's jump over to our man Jose and Lakeland Jose good morning what's happening man yes good morning good morning hey just a quick note on the NFL the Tom Brady run pretty pretty remarkable but I heard that the NFL is making all players sign a release form next year if he returns they have to sign a release form in order to hit him come on we can't all be Brady haters he gets it he got he got that bloody lip man and they didn't even get a call oh is that what it was okay I didn't know that but that might be the first hit they've taken all here hey quite a career no matter what man you can't deny it but quite an NFL playoffs we got going on no matter what man as a fan you know I'm a Patriots fan first I'm a Tom Brady fan for sure I'm a Bucks fan second but man I'm a football fan and this playoffs is something else for sure Jose what are we looking at man hey um what's your take on I know interest rates a half a quarter point you know just like Greenspan incremental Al Greenspan quarter point but what's your opinion on the effect on the real estate prices boy you know the one thing that I keep talking about is that the game has definitely changed I know you you know I hear you Jose with some great calls into my dad show all the time man my dad talking about it as well you know I don't think a lot of people outside of you know investors in the market whether in real estate markets whether you're in financial markets have seen the fact of the takeover that is going on by Wall Street you know in terms of the Black Rocks just securitizing single family homes so it can have an impact man and it will write but not to the degree that I think we've seen previously and that's what you know I mean that supply is just not going to be the same ever again especially when you have interest rates where they are and if you're at one two three percent four percent you know it's still pretty manageable for Wall Street to keep those on the books and never give them up man oh I got you I got you so inventory is going to be tight because of the for sure there's no reason you know I would never sell them they securitize them they push them out to the public they collect the right Jose man thank you for calling call again are you in the market buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area whether you're looking to sell 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That's tfnn.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Folks, we have the S&Ps right now. Giving up some of the gains, we're still about 4,400, trading at 4401 right now and just to finish it up because there's a great call from Jose Mangrit to hear from you. Thank you for calling. Folks, if you're out there, give us a call 877-927-6648 and just to finish it up real quick. So you talk about the impact that interest rates will have on houses, right? Again, this is just opinion. Who knows what happens and it's not a crystal ball. But you have to think about the change that has taken place in that market since really 2008. Okay, so you're talking about the last 14 years now that that has happened, that Wall Street has taken over the single family market and it's just going to expand folks with interest rates. I mean, we all hear the stories, right? That somebody puts their house up and yes, it's not as we're as hysteric as it was, hysterical as it was, okay? But we all hear the story as in you got to be a cash buyer, right? They get five bids for cash when it goes live. Again, not at the levels that maybe it was at the peak. We might have some consolidation areas. But point being, even if you start waning on the investor side of it, that is very deep, you know, home buyers. Maybe they start having a shot. So maybe as interest rates rise a little bit, we don't all hear the stories that you got to be a cash buyer and six bids come in at or above asking price for a house. Because maybe the investors wane a little bit, but they're not going away, folks, and they will be in there. So interest rates, I don't think we'll have as big of an impact. And we're only talking about, you know, yeah, if they spike 5%, if you're talking about a 30-year mortgage at 9%, yes, that will have an impact. But if you're talking about a rise of 1%, 2%, maybe that just allows actually people who are getting a mortgage to start competing in that market, which will allow housing prices to not fall so low, if that goes. All right, folks, let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegstad. Every Wednesday we talk to Teddy at 40 past the hour. You can reach Teddy every trading day at 4x-trading-unlock.com. Teddy Kegstad, it's Fed Day. Good morning. It's freezing Fed Day in Chicago. It's minus five degrees here. Minus five. And what do you guys got? Like a 25-mile-an-hour wind out there for feels like temperature, negative 35, right? Yeah, we have a windshield warning until like noon, one o'clock today. So yeah, it's cool. Stay warm, man. I know we're spoiled in Florida, man. That's why I live here on Monday, Teddy, though. I woke up and it was 34 degrees in Florida and my car, driving the kids to school for the first time, was covered in ice. And I had to sit there and explain how most people across the country, as we sat there in the car for five minutes, have to warm up their cars because I didn't have an ice chipper in my car. You know, I was just covered, man. So anyway, but we're back to like 50, but stay warm because that's a different kind of cold up there once you get below, as we all know. So speaking of cold, speaking of hot, we got some hot markets, man. We got a hot oil market. Where do you want to kick things off? Well, let's talk about the oil market. So we were coming off a nice little higher move low from a couple of sessions ago when we're right below that high that we made, who was it last week. So I think we're going to, you know, pierce it higher. Now, are we going to accelerate in a big way? I think we're going to keep the trend going. You know that $100 has been a target of mine. You know, I still think we're going to go way beyond that over the course of the next year, a year and a half, especially with the geopolitical things that are going on right now. I mean, I can't see how it wouldn't. You know, I mean, the reality is United States oil supplies now are at the lowest levels they've been in decades. You know, so we're, this is not a good thing whatsoever. Sure. You know, so unless consumption and demand starts to really significantly drop in this country, which would mean we'd have to have lockdowns, which wouldn't be good for anyone. I can't see how the oil doesn't go much higher, you know. So and it's definitely you can see that we know we've been talking now for weeks about the divergence in the currency markets. The dollar index obviously has been pressing higher for the past couple of days, especially since we talked last week. You know, but it's a mixed bag of goods. You know, it's depends on which currency you're looking at. So I'm bullish on oil. I can't see anything right now in the forecast. I mean, what do you think that Putin all of a sudden is going to turn on the pipes and start supplying the world with more oil to help suppress the price of oil right now? I don't think that's happening. You know, so OPEC OPEC can do everything they want. If you let's say OPEC came out today and said we're going to try and just really, really help the world out and blah, blah, blah, which we know they would never do that anyhow. But let's say that they did that would not make put a dent into the world's supply right now. It just wouldn't, you know, especially with as far as how the supply chains are going as well to move the oil, you know. So the conditions are totally right. We have also the Fed, which is now coming into play, you know, is is Powell going to do anything today? I think odds are pretty, pretty minimal that they're going to do something today. I think it's going to be more Fed speak. I mean, you got to realize that they're still trying to make America believe that inflation is only running at seven percent, you know. So, you know, if you go with their narrative, then there's no reason to press rates too quickly for one. That's just the way I see it. Now, we know the Goldman and some other forecasters are now saying they'll be upwards of seven, eight hikes, you know, over the course of the next year or two. Well, obviously we're at the bottom. So the only way we can go is up, you know, right now, you know. And as far as the way we're dealing with things and the way it looks like they're going to deal with it, it's going to be a slow progression. You know, we don't have a Volcker Fed chairman, you know, who would be willing that alone have the foresight to say, hey, you know, this, you know, when you're looking at trying to just, when you have an overheating economy or something like that, when you're only using rates in a quarter point basis to kind of curtail things, whether it's rising or cutting rates, that's one thing. But we're in a situation where we've been at the bottom for a long time, relatively speaking, for interest rates. Even if we were to have a two point raise over the course of the next year, that would still have a relatively historically low rates, you know. So I mean, as far as the fantasy that, you know, all of a sudden the sky is going to collapse, you know, because rates go up. Well, it's not going to happen just because we go up one or 2%. And the Fed is by no means going to raise it five, 6% over the next year or two, you know, to shock the markets. That was something. I don't know if you were listening to the segment before you came on, but we had a great call, Jose from Lakeland, you're just talking about interest rates. And it's kind of what I was talking about in terms of like, if you see a huge impact, if it's 1%, 2%, we're at such a little level, you know, you're still going to have, maybe you have the retail mortgage applicer, maybe, you know, if yields are going higher, maybe investors on either way. The point was, you know, it's not a substantial change to the market when you're at such low interest rates. Yeah, if interest rates go up to 9% and the 30 year mortgage is 10%, of course that's going to hurt housing prices, but not where we are. And I'll say to just agree, man, in terms of the surprise nature of all these, maybe people are talking about a 50 basis point, it's not just Chairman Powell it's adding, whether you agree or not, most analysts are saying, and I always say going with the hikes, but that all of this is going to wane in the next year. So if most people are saying it on Wall Street, why is he going to freak everybody out with a 50 basis point cut? I mean, hike, I have to get hiking in my head now. I do. So I kind of agree, and that doesn't mean though, that things don't change in the next three, six, nine months, because I think if it becomes undeniable to the point that, if we go, we're now at the point, you can't go three years post pandemic, I think. You know what I mean in terms of the next year, because everything was, we've now overcome Omicron peak it looks like, and hopefully life resumes. I don't see the chance for those shutdowns. So if everything's supposed to calm down in the next year and it doesn't, then I think we might be in for a little bit of an accelerated aspect of that. I tell you what, can you hang with us Teddy for the break? Okay, we're going to go to a break folks. We'll come back. We'll talk a little bit more of the actual, some of those forex pairings. We got the SMPs. We're up 66 points right now, trading up 1.5% at 44, 14. We stay tuned folks. We'll be right back with Teddy. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV. Live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. 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The investment is for four years, paying 7% per year or $7,000 per 100,000 invested. Your investment is secured by high-value real estate in St. Petersburg, Florida. Your investment can be anywhere from 100,000 to 500,000. Do you want to make 1,000 per year on $100,000 invested or 7,000 per year on a secured, target first mortgage? The target first mortgage program may be just the program for you. The target first mortgage program pays 7% per year, paid monthly. For more information, you can call 877-518-9190. That's 877-518-9190. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Welcome back, folks. We're talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad from forex-trading-unlocked.com. So, Teddy, we have the dollar index up a little bit pre-market. It's pulled back a bit. I have a chart of the dollar yen up here. We have some positive action. We're up to 114.34. I know a lot of our listeners love tracking that yen, especially dollar yen with the gold action. What do you think of this action today, even, or as we base it around 114 right now, down from 116 to start the year in the end? Oh, I love it. You know what? It's kind of funny, because it's Fed Day. The interest rate markets is pretty dead. I would expect most of the markets to be dead, except for those that are obviously because of earning releases in the stock market. But most of the currencies, I don't think you're gonna see very much movement in today. You'll see a little bit, but the US dollar yen absolutely is the one mover that we got going on today. It's been firm for most of the morning, as we're talking right now. I think, yeah, it's making new highs right now. And the nice thing is, we're coming off of a new low, that was set a couple of days ago. Now, I am viewing this as a correction that we're viewing right now. And now we're at the beginning of a turn back to the upside. When you look at, besides the global tensions, the oil we just spoke about, and also the interest rate factor with the Fed, I can't see how you wouldn't see the US dollar yen rebound up towards the highs that we were looking at just a couple of weeks ago. Obviously, you know, I'm bullish. I've been bullish for a long time. So it's not just a personal thing. It's a technical, fundamental thing. I think you're gonna see a lot of potential movement there. And there's also a couple other indicators where you can see this. I always say the market is the best indicator for the markets, especially in real time. So if you compare, for instance, like the Australian dollar right now is up versus the dollar today, okay? The US dollar yen, excuse me, the yen is the one that's down. But the Australian dollar yen cross is actually looking for a sell signal right now, you know? So that shows that there's a lot of divergence once again that I'm talking about. And you shouldn't see this kind of trade setup going on because Australian dollar right now, obviously with the lockdowns, we all know that things are much more severe and restrictive down there. It made a lower, it made a nice little bounce, you know? But as you can see like the New Zealand dollar really is starting to wane. So if that part of the world continues to weigh heavily in the bears, I think you're gonna see a lot of bulls hit the end for sure. All right, man, it's gonna be up. We got market straight and higher right into this. We're up 75 points in the S&P. Teddy, I can't wait to find out where we are a week from today, man. We'll talk to you next Wednesday. 122 in the end, let's see it. I love it. We'll find out 122. Stay tuned, folks.