 We now move to First Minister's Questions. Question number one, Johann Lamont. Thank you very much, Presiding Officer. To ask the First Minister what engagements he has planned for the rest of the days. Engagements to take forward the Government's programme for Scotland. Johann Lamont. Thank you. Presiding Officer, the First Minister and I can agree on two things. Sir Ian Wood is the preeminent expert on North Sea oil, and Sir Ian doesn't have much time for politicians. Yesterday he reluctantly entered the referendum debate, saying he did so as a father and a grandfather, and saying he didn't want future generations to ask why he stood silent. He warned the Scottish Government had overestimated oil and gas production by between 45 per cent and 60 per cent. He warned the First Minister had overestimated oil tax revenue by £2,000 million a year. Is Sir Ian Wood right, or would the First Minister care to explain to him, his children, grandchildren and the generations to come, why he is wrong? First Minister. I hope that Johann Lamont and I can agree on more than two things. We agree, as I remember it just two weeks ago, that Scotland had the potential to be a prosperous independent country. I think everybody agreed with that in this chamber, but let me agree that Ian Wood is an authority on North Sea oil and gas. He is not the only authority, of course. Professor Alec Kemp, Sir Donald Mackay, they are also major authorities in oil and gas, but I think that what Ian Wood has to say on matters should be considered very carefully indeed. Can I just point out to Johann Lamont that the figure that I have often quoted of up to 24 billion barrels of oil and gas equivalent remaining in the North Sea is not a Scottish Government figure at its source. It was the figure that the industry produced, has produced for a number of years and I think is a robust figure. It shows the extraordinary potential that remains in the waters around Scotland if indeed the policies are pursued and the stewardship is correct to make sure that these resources work for the Scottish people. Johann Lamont. There are two things. The First Minister recognised that Sir Ian Wood is an authority, but if he says something that he does not want to hear, he simply ignores it. That is not good enough. Secondly, I would have imagined that Sir Ian Wood knew exactly what the First Minister said about these figures. He is offering a critique that we must address. The First Minister has rightly praised Ian Wood in the past and it is for the public to judge why he disagrees with him now. Sir Ian said and I quote, relevant to Scotland's independence debate is how long offshore oil and gas production will last. He said and I quote, young voters must be fully aware, but by the time they are middle aged, Scotland will have little offshore oil and gas production and this will seriously hit our economy, jobs and public services. So can the First Minister tell our children and grandchildren why Sir Ian Wood was wrong to give them that warning? First Minister. My headline message for the youth of today, get involved, the North Sea oil industry will see you through your lifetime. Ian Wood, BBC 9 November 2012. Yes, of course, Ian Wood is an authority on North Sea oil and gas and he has been foremost in pointing out the future potential of the oil and gas province. Now what Ian Wood, I listened to Ian Wood today on the radio and he said and I think he was right to do so because Alec Kemp is a foremost authority in terms of the modelling of North Sea oil and gas and what remains. He said he'd spoken to Professor Alec Kemp over the last few days and he felt that the figure of 15 to 16.5 billion barrels was an appropriate estimate. Incidentally, that compares with the OBR estimate of 10 billion over the next 30 years and that is 60 per cent higher than the one offered by the agencies of Her Majesty's Government. But he said he'd been speaking to Professor Alec Kemp over the last few days and so I consulted Professor Alec Kemp's website, University of Aberdeen, here I've got it here. That's absolutely correct. Professor Alec Kemp and Linda Stevens, his research partner, have conducted substantial modelling and a potential long-term recovery for oil and gas. It goes on to make certain projections and says that if targeted tax incentives were introduced to economic recovery to 2050, it could increase to 15 to 16.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Then it goes on and it's now available at the University of Aberdeen website. But there is potential for further developments after 2050 if other fuels can be rendered economically viable. Professor Kemp and Linda Stevens found at the year 2050 no less than 125 known existing discoveries remain undeveloped. With further progress in oil prices, this should apply to new discoveries for future applications and finishes, thus the ultimate potential of 24 billion barrels of oil equivalent foreseen by oil and gas UK appears plausible. So now we have a point of agreement. 16.5 billion barrels to 2050 and 24 billion barrels as the total value of the oil province. Listen, that's a lot of billions of barrels in Scotland should welcome it. Johann Lamont. Miss Lamont. Well, that will give a lot of confidence to people who are worrying about the future. Because obviously the First Minister said he listened to Sir Ian Wood. He didn't hear or he willfully refused to hear what he was saying. He should reflect on the fact that Sir Ian Wood said that he felt obliged to intervene in his debate because he was frustrated at being misrepresented and misquoted. That is an example, a hallmark of a First Minister's approach to persuading people to support his lifelong political project. Say whatever has to be said to get by the moment but ignore the substance of the argument. In his warning, Sir Ian Wood envisaged far from an independent Scotland exporting energy to the rest of the United Kingdom, Scotland having to import from the rest of the United Kingdom. He said, this preeminent expert as identified by the First Minister said, unfortunately I think Scotland will also lose out on renewables. He added of the oil industry most operators This is about the future of our country. Not the future of our political project. He added of the oil industry most operators would feel more confident if Scotland was to remain part of the UK. Why was Ian Wood wrong to say that in the interests of our children, our grandchildren and the generations to come? I have already pointed out that Sir Ian Wood is on the record saying the North Sea industry addressing the youth of Scotland will see you through your lifetime and he is right to say so because 2050 is not the limit of the oil industry it will go on long beyond that. I am misquoting Ian Wood I have the transcript of his interview this morning I spoke to Alex Kemp two or three times recently and he is pretty clear of the view that right on the 15 to 16.5 billion that I have quoted is probably the right sort of range. That is exactly the point that I was making Yes, Alex Kemp said 15 to 16.5 billion up to 2050 He then goes on to say it will be up to 24 billion if you take the full future resource in the reserve. This poor, benighted country of Scotland with only 16.5 billion of oil up to 2050 worth £1 trillion in wholesale value over that period or perhaps if we go on longer only 1.5 trillion, trillion a thousand billion this poor, benighted country visited with a great curse of 15 billion barrels of oil. Every other country in the world would give their eye teeth for such a substantial resource. So why do the Labour Party and the Labour Party's allies thinking there's a great curse on Scotland and incidentally having 25% of the offshore renewable energy potential of the continent Europe that's also an asset not a disadvantage for an independent Scotland? John Lamont Order Neslamont Benighted country is not it's a wonderful, wonderful a wonderful country that deserves not to have as intelligence insulted by that kind of response it's not a debating point between me and the First Minister it's what a senior person in the oil industry is saying it's about the future of our country so let's review the record over the last two years the First Minister said he had EU legal advice that wasn't true John Swinney nobody here the sun the sun comes to the morning order carry on Miss Lamont it has been established beyond peradventure that that wasn't true John Swinney said he was in discussions with the Bank of England on a currency union and that wasn't true Nicola Sturgeon told the SNP conference in April this year that under devolution that NHS in Scotland couldn't be privatised that is true but now Alex Salmond says it isn't Scotland Scotland Order we'll get through this a lot quicker if they applauding and the jury will stop Miss Lamont this is your last question will you just get to it well we would get a lot let me hope in all optimism you get an answer to the question Scotland's greatest oil expert says independence would be bad for Scotland and he's derided by his own First Minister isn't it the case Alex Salmond doesn't have a plan B on currency he doesn't have a plan B on Europe he doesn't have a plan B on oil the trouble is it's the case that Scotland doesn't trust Alex Salmond because he's the man without a plan First Minister Order First Minister Can I just put on the record that Serene Wood, as I said in the answer the first question, respected authority as is Sir Alex Kemp as are the range of experts like Sir Donald Mackay who have analysed the Scottish Government figures and produced her own estimates which are very similar indeed to the projections of the Scottish Government they say that the UK Treasury has a vision of black gold I've pointed out the 24 billion up to 24 billion figure is an industry estimate it's been used by many many people including the Waitwood review I've pointed out that the first 16 billion barrels is up to 2050 and Alex Kemp the foremost authority on that area of the oil industry says there's more to come and the 24 billion looks entirely plausible but on the question of the health service if John Lamont can't bring herself to agree with me how about agreeing with Unison Unison the Union devolution means they can't run down and privatise our NHS directly from London the way they're doing in England but what they can do is starve it off resources they are cutting back on the money provided to the Scottish Government and putting the Scottish budget under pressure Unison the Union but then of course there is the question of what John asked me about whether or not who's to blame for what I was struck and encouraged and excited by in Davidson's comments of only this week he identified that Labour's failure was the reason for the SNP's success and spoke out the reasons why the SNP have done so well in recent years has more to do with the failures of the Labour Party the lack of modernisation the SNP have become what the Labour Party should have been because the Scottish voters moved from Glasgow to the new towns of Scotland many of them became SNP supporters they didn't want the Tamaray Hall politics of Labour get to the situation that I'm able to quote Ian Davidson against Johann Lamont then perhaps the reality is that the Labour Party in Scotland don't have a plan A never mind a plan B to ask the First Minister no plans Sir Ian Woods is the most respected business figure in the North Sea oil industry and for two and a half years in this debate he has kept his own council he has stayed studiously neutral as he said yesterday he had no wish to get involved I've just heard all the chaff that the First Minister has been firing out on a reflect from Sir Ian's critique yesterday but what I haven't heard and what I'm asking the First Minister is this why does he think Sir Ian now feels so compelled to speak out First Minister Sir Ian Woods wanted to clarify that his opinion was that the oil reserves were between 15 to 16.5 billion that was his likely estimate I'm pointing out that I think that is based on Professor Alec Kemp who points out today in the Aberdeen University blog that that applies up to 2050 there are already oil fields in the west coast which are going to produce beyond 2050 Alec Kemp has identified over 100 oil discoveries that are not in the calculations to 2050 and he and many industry figures believe that therefore the overall value in terms of reserves of the oil province is up to 24 billion which is the industry estimate that UK Oil and Gas have but UK Oil and Gas individual companies here is a briefing from British Petroleum from Tim Smith the Vice President of British Petroleum to MSPs last year 41 billion barrels produced to the end 2012 potentially 27 billion barrels of resource yet to recover production beyond 2050 so if the industry estimate is up to 24 if major companies are saying 27 can Ruth Davidson not bring herself to realise that whether it is 16.5 billion at 2050 whether it's 27 billion beyond 2050 that's many, many billions of barrels of oil and in wholesale terms worth many trillions of pounds every country in the world has an enormous asset why do the Tories in the Labour Party alone believe it's an extraordinary liability with all due respect to the First Minister that's not why Sir Ian says he felt the need at this critical time to speak out Sir Ian has no worlds left to conquer he's not trying to win any votes he just wants the Scottish people to know the facts before they make this irreversible decision now throughout this whole debate the First Minister has twisted facts and ducked hard truths and simply closed his ears to anything that doesn't fit his lifelong obsession of independence but not everybody out there is like that people want to know what is best for their children and their grandchildren so can't the First Minister just have the decency even at this late stage to concede Sir Ian's point that our young voters must be fully aware but by the time they are middle aged Scotland will have little offshore oil and gas production and this will seriously hit our economy, jobs and public services a direct quote from Sir Ian will he not concede it First Minister I think she checks the record even her boss the Prime Minister hasn't said that on the country I already read out Ian Wood's rallying call to the youth of Scotland saying that somebody could enter the oil industry and the North Sea would last him an entire lifetime for goodness sake don't miss quote this is an important argument an important argument about the word order settle down actually get to a position that Alec Kem is cited as the person relied upon in terms of forecast and in his forecast blog today points out there's 125 known existing discoveries which in these estimates will still be undeveloped in 2050 when the clear ridge field is already going to produce beyond 2050 can Ruth Davidson not admit this is a long term business that will be with us for generations to come Ruth Davidson all of the past will know that major figures in the Westminster Government have now admitted they rather underestimated the significance of oil and gas Dennis Healy we underplayed the value of the resource Bernard Ingham it was part of his normal part of to question the value of the resource given the history and track record of Westminster is it not possible that her government with her 10 billion barrel estimate over the next 30 years are doing exactly the same thing given the evidence in the last 40 years then I think most people in Scotland will say let's get our turn of using our natural resources for the benefit of the Scottish people question number 3 Duncan McNeill to ask the First Minister how the Scottish Government will ensure the future of shipbuilding on the lower Clyde First Minister on Tuesday I met with the Ferguson shops I spoke to them again this morning tomorrow I'll visit the shipyards itself to speak to the employees where I'll reiterate the Scottish Government's commitment to the future of the yard and to their employment as Duncan McNeill knows a multi-agency task force has been convened by the Cabinet Secretary it's due to have its next meeting on Monday and I can assure everyone in this chamber the Scottish Government is doing will do everything within our power to ensure the continuation of shipbuilding at Ferguson's Duncan McNeill Can I thank the First Minister for his response and I'm sure, like me, he's encouraged by the number of bidders that I've already declared and I've expressed serious interest in the continuing shipbuilding at Ferguson's and which demonstrates quite clearly a confidence in the yard, the workforce and the future and will be good news in a bad week for the people of Port Glasgow and indeed the Inverclyde community although we all express a very serious regret that the yard with such potential was allowed to close a closure that was brought about by the failure of CalMac and the Assets Management Company CMAIL to place orders for ferries 3 and 4 following the very successful build of MV Hullack and MV Lockenvar it is the state's position and I don't question it of the Scottish Government that they wish to continue commercial shipbuilding on the lower Clyde at Ferguson's is the First Minister confident that his view is shared by CMAIL and CalMac and how will he ensure the requirement for 12 new vessels and the £240 million of public investment will be used in support of Ferguson's and the wider Scottish economy First Minister John Swinney made his statement on Tuesday I did think that Duncan Mee will stop that they are all know in terms of how to analyse this situation there have been substantial orders placed with this yard and substantial opportunity to give them the new generation of environmentally sensitive ferries and we have great hopes that we'll arrive at a situation where that can continue under new ownership Duncan Mee says what encourages me two things encourage me greatly one is the spirit and determination of the workforce in Ferguson's it is unanimous from every commentator around this issue that no one has questioned the skill the dedication the application and the resilience and resolve of that workforce and every single person in this chamber should give them absolutely maximum support that encourages me greatly the second thing is that I was encouraged by the statement of the receiver yesterday because he made it quite clear Blair Nimble that he was moving to an early deadline that offers to be analysed of five o'clock this evening and in that statement he said he was moving to that deadline because he wanted to make sure that there was the chance of a continuation of Ferguson's as an on-going concern he would be particularly looking at holding this workforce together and making sure there are prospects for the future so I think although we are not there yet although there are going to be still be more anxious hours for Ferguson's that we have reason for substantial encouragement and that encouragement is founded and based not just on the determination of this Government and the support of everyone in this chamber but the resolve and the resilience of the shipyard workers themselves To ask the First Minister what the Scottish Government's response is to the final report by the commission on strengthening local democracy First Minister to empower councils, communities to consider the right level for all decisions to be made as we have set out our prospectus for Scotland's island communities Local government will be an integral and essential element of an independent Scotland its status in my estimation can only be guaranteed by a written constitution after independence John Wills Presiding Officer I thank the First Minister for his reply The First Minister is aware that this report follows the previous report in 2012 by the Jimmy Reid Foundation The Silent Crisis Failure and Revival in Local Democracy in Scotland Does the First Minister agree with me that the only way that we can truly get a democratic society in Scotland is by voting yes in the 18th of September to ensure that Westminster Governments do not interfere in the democratic structures that we want to see in a future Scotland First Minister I agree with that position But the point of John Wilson's question I think is very opposite there are a range of vital institutions which could with a written constitution have entrenched protection which are part of the fabric and vital fabric of Scotland That is one of the benefits of having a written constitution We recently had the Commonwealth Games in the city of Glasgow and a fantastic success it was in the nations and territories competing in these games With the exception of New Zealand which has a basic law which is a very important aspect Every single one of these independent countries has a written constitution which preserves and protects the rights of their citizens as well as anunciating free rights I agree with John Wilson that the position of local government would be entrenched in a written constitution in an independent Scotland To ask the First Minister how the Scottish Government's economic strategy will help to achieve the aims of its a growth declaration of opportunity First Minister As I set out in our growth independence offers the opportunity to release the vast potential of Scotland's extraordinary talented population Last week we published our jobs plan for independent Scotland which shows through how independence we can create more and better job opportunities helping our young people to realise their ambitions here in Scotland It does seem to me that while we offer a declaration of opportunity Neil Findlay and his colleagues in the Conservative Party have nothing whatsoever to declare Neil Findlay We now know that the First Minister's oil forecasts are a mere 60% out and that his corporate tax gift to big business would rip £350 million a year from our public services While the First Minister now accept his voodoo economics that would see a separate Scotland with an £8.6 million black hole in its finances Will he apologise to what cancer specialist Dr Anna Greger says is the complete and utter lie about NHS privatisation in the event of a no vote First Minister Well I know it's extremely difficult for the constituency member given his alliance with the Conservative Party to try and reflect on the position that lots and lots of people in Scotland agree with the surge of support for protecting our national health service through independence for Scotland and within a written constitution but he will have taken close attention to the quote that I read out from unison making the point that as the health service budget and public service budget is reduced in England and he surely doesn't believe that privatisation is intended to increase the health service budget in England as that happens it will happen if enforced in Scotland as unison identify through financial pressure now luckily of course the SMP and John Swinney have been in administration ensuring a real terms increase over the last few years in the national health service budget but what has happened in Wales a 3% decline so either we believe that the Labour Party in Wales wanted to reduce real terms spending on the national health service which even I don't believe or we believe that it's been forced by the financial pressure from Westminster so I agree with the Labour Party in Wales I agree with the Labour Party in England that England's privatisation through the Tories is endangering the health service and I agree with unison it's high time the member did as well Question 6 To ask the First Minister what progress has been made in reducing cancer mortality rates First Minister We welcome the figures released by Cancer Research UK on Monday 18 August showing that mortality rates from the four main cancers in Scotland have reduced by around 25% in the last 20 years We're working with Cancer Research UK in a number of areas and we endorse their new strategy aimed at pushing cancer survival in the next 20 years In recent years we've been investing to improve Scotland's cancer treatment infrastructure including £22 million for the new Beatson Centre now being built at Monkman's hospital to help meet the rising demand for radiotherapy treatment over the next 10 years Jimmie Dee I thank the First Minister for that answer While improved specialist care better treatments and fewer people smoking have all contributed to the fall of cancer killers Does the First Minister agree that the health and equality gap between the lowest and highest deprivation groups is still far too high for too many cancers including lung, cervix and stomach cancer and that programmes that help to detect cancer at the earliest stage are absolutely vital to ensuring that everyone in Scotland receives the life-saving treatment they need which only a publicly funded and clinically driven health service can provide First Minister That's why the Government has targeted £30 million investment into early cancer detection through the detect cancer early programme and invested a further £12 million to modernise the Scottish breast screening programme In addition to screening the detect cancer early programme focuses on addressing fears about cancer on recognising signs and symptoms of cancer encouraging people to get checked if they're worried and we know that diagnosis and treatment at the earliest stage helps to improve survival rates That will ensure that every patient who is alive receives timely treatment and follow-up Jimmie Dee mentions the importance of a public health service I hope that everyone in this chamber understands the importance of protecting and preserving our national health service in Scotland It is absolutely vital we believe that that can be done through Scottish independence If there's an alternative route to do it then it better get spelled out but the Labour Party members should remember Davidson's words at this First Minister's questions The SNP have become what the Labour Party should have become First Minister's questions We now move to members' business Members who leave the chamber should do so quickly and quietly