 OK, no, thank you. So here, the background is in the northern hemisphere summer, the rainfall intutes very deeply into the continent from India all the way through China and Japan. So a lot of monsoon research concerns the South Asian monsoon, which you can consider as a tropical monsoon. In a sense, it's well south of the Western jet. Whereas the so-called East Asian monsoon from Eastern China through Japan is a tilted rain ban. So that rain ban is roughly co-located with the so-called subtropical Asian jet. So we would call this subtropical monsoon. So I think it's very distinct from the tropical monsoon of South Asia. So we're not going to go into a lot of details because Samona has talked quite a little bit about this, although in a kind of zonal mean context. So in the surface atmospheric circulation, you see this characteristic cross-sectorial flow against the African coast and turning into southwest winds. The southwest winds blow from Arabian sea through India, through Bay of Bengal, through South China Sea all the way into Western Pacific. Whereas in winter, the winds turn into the kind of normal tree winds. So there's a very strong seasonal reverse of the winds. And especially I would emphasize the southwestern monsoon winds extend from the coast of Africa through the Philippines into the Pacific. So this is going to be very important background state. We will make argument for a different couple of modes across the Indo-Western Pacific at the very end of my talk. So of course, people study El Nino southern oscillations, at least the southern oscillation research started there from studying Indian monsoon rainfall. So that's why Walker started noticing there's a seasonal oscillation between the Indo-Western Pacific and the Eastern Pacific. So they're all connected. So that's not terribly surprising that the monsoon is affected by ANSO because southern oscillation started from monsoon research to begin with. And then just briefly reveal what typical ANSO look like in terms of temporal evolution. So ANSO El Nino, in this case the four biggest El Nino ever recorded in instrumental record, typically start from the northern hemisphere summer growing in peak. And then peaks roughly in the northern hemisphere winter. And then decays rapidly in the following spring and by the following summer like here. The SST anomalies in equatorial Pacific have roughly dissipated almost all together. So it would not be terribly surprising you find a correlation with concurrent El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. And that's indeed people have discovered and in fact that's probably Walker that discovered it first. So namely, if you go now with a more than 100 year rain gauge observation over India, you can do EUF analysis. So this leaving mode explaining something like 20% of the summer rainfall variance is strongly correlated with southern oscillation. Over more than 100 years the correlation is 0.52. So that's extremely hard for that long period of time. So this is a strong correlation with concurrent El Nino conditions. So perhaps a little bit surprising is the second mode, second mode explaining like 9%. And then people, so this represents dipolar pattern between the southern India and the northeastern Indian dipolar pattern. And if you correlate this EUF with SST everywhere, you will find it's most highly correlated with SST in the northern Indian Ocean. So the northern Indian Ocean warming is known to be induced by preceding El Nino, right? El Nino peaks in winter. So this is a variability for summer rainfall. So El Nino affects both concurrent summer and also affect the subsequent summer, right? So the concurrent answer inference is not terribly surprising. But the El Nino inference on the subsequent summer is a little bit bizarre, right? Because I said El Nino itself dissipated almost completely by the following summer. So that's a little confusing. But we will see it all makes sense. So if you go to China, right? So a little bit shorter observational record, you correlate the Nino 0.3 with Chinese rain gauges in China. You will find the highest correlation actually occurred when you use preceding winter answer index than with the concurrent answer index, right? So in other words, the answer inference on China tends to occur in the post answer summer, right? Especially this characteristic southwest wind anomalies transporting moisture from Indian Ocean and South China Sea into eastern China causing rainfall variability. So this is a very characteristic southwest wind anomalies across the southeastern China. So we will come back to this. So these are like two major domains of South Asian monsoon and Eastern Asian monsoon systems. So you see both concurrent answer effect and the post answer effect in two summers. And then we can do the UF analysis of the rainfall over a much broader area, in this case, from covering the entire North Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific. So this blocked the region, right? So leaving the UF, the first UF explaining 29% of the rainfall variance features like eastward displacement of deep connection. So we know that's El Nino, right? Especially if you see like the surface winds, you see westward wind developing in the western part of Equatorial Pacific that's driving answer to develop, to grow. So this is the UF1. And then when you correlate this PC with SST globally, you find the strongest correlation is in the eastern Equatorial Pacific. So again, confirming this is a concurrent answer effect on the Indo-Western Pacific summer rainfall variability. And the second mode, the second mode explains 15% of the variance. And then when you correlate this UF with SST everywhere, you are not correlated too well with eastern Pacific, rather you correlate the best with SST over northern Indian Ocean. So similar to what we just saw for the Indian rainfall analysis. And then for this second mode, the most pronounced anomaly is this suppressed deep connection from South China Sea through Philippine into the western Pacific. And that's associated with anti-psychonic circulation in the low level like here, right? And especially the southern part of the anti-psychonic circulation is to weaken the prevailing south-easterly monoclonal wind from the Arabian Sea through Bill Bangal and South China Sea. So warming, northern Indian Ocean warming and this. So by, you know, if we accept atmosphere, seasonal mean anomalies must be anchored by SST anomalies somewhere. Somewhere you will have to reach the conclusion that Indian Ocean warming is the direct anchor of this SST, this rainfall and circulation pattern, okay? So that's just by simple physical inference without much mechanistic details. So that's kind of a, again, kind of summarized here. So I want to draw attention. Like in the post-Ansol Summit, the biggest anomalies, both in circulation and rainfall, you see in the western Pacific, suppressed rainfall and anti-psychonic circulation therefore increase the atmosphere pressure at the surface. So this is a kind of illustrated, summarized here. So the black contour is auto-correlation, black correlation with NINIO 3.4 in December here, right? So the NINIO develops like this and decays like this. And then here the black line and the orange bars represent the northwestern Pacific atmospheric anomalies, the correlations with Ancel. So you kind of see the most pronounced northwestern Pacific response to Ancel occurs in the decay phase of NINIO southern oscillation. And also extends all the way into the following summer, whereas the NINIO 3.4 has already dissipated, right? So there's no NINIO to speak of in the equatorial Pacific, but yet the northwestern Pacific anomaly, somehow know there was NINIO six months ahead. That's because the Indian Ocean is responding to NINIO by warming, right? So this is also one, no. So Indian Ocean tends to become anomalously warm following NINIO. And this Indian Ocean warming somehow persist through the following summer. So that led us to propose perhaps Indian Ocean after all it's not just a passive slave to NINIO southern oscillation. It has active role to play, more like a capacitor. So NINIO is of course the most powerful agent for internal variability. So it's like a battery charging the Indian Ocean when NINIO is still strong. But then if you take away the battery NINIO, the capacitor of the Indian Ocean would persist for a while and discharging climatic anomalies to the surrounding region, including India and China and the northwestern Pacific. So that's a conceptual model, right? Without presenting any mechanistic support for the argument I just presented. So now I'd like to turn a little bit to make some mechanistic discussion as to why the Indian Ocean warming would have impact on the northwestern Pacific, for example. So this is showing like a post-NINIO summer, the correlation with NINIO 3.4 in the preceding winter. Okay, so this is a bit confusing. So the correlation is to illustrate the post-NINIO summer anomalies in the ocean and atmosphere. So already shown like the Indian Ocean remains warm in the post-NINIO summer. So that warming through, perhaps, cause our equilibrium adjustment. Simona talked about this morning. You can anchor and drive a gear pattern, maternal gear pattern, right? So a common wave propagating east and a raspy wave on the sides. So this, by the way, is a completely, the contour here is a correlation between tropospheric temperature average between 850 millibar to 200 millibar with the preceding NINIO 3.4 SST index. So the correlation is as high as 0.7 in the subsequent summer. So this is not schematic, okay? This is from observational correlation. So it just looks just like a maternal gear pattern in schematic, but it's real observations. So you can imagine under the warm troposphere, pressure will drop. And pressure, so especially the carbon wave, you expect to see low anomalies, low sea level pressure here. So you would, without friction, you will call for easterly wind anomalies in the free troposphere, lower troposphere. But then in the presence of, because we are talking about the surface winds, right? So there is a friction and friction would drive the surface wind into the low pressure on the equator. And therefore, at the same time, causing divergence in the off-rack or total region. So that divergence would trigger, would suppress the convection and then the suppressed convection is going to enhance the higher pressure. So that convective feedback would amplify the system. So this is surface wind correlation pattern. So you see the winds are doing anti-psychotic circulation. And then the southern branch of the anti-psychotic circulation is to weaken the southwestern monsoons winds. Okay, so this is a mechanism how the Indian Ocean warming could lead to suppressed convection and anti-psychotic circulation in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. And coincidentally, Fred sent me this paper. I find it's quite amazing. He did something like Andrew and Gil did by imposing an isolated cease of his temperature anomaly patch in the dashed circular region. But his model is moist, including a moist convection, interaction with the circulation. So the response naturally is going to be different from because the convergence divergence are going to drive additional rainfall convection anomaly and modify the circulation. But nevertheless, so imposing a positive anomaly here, of course, you are going to get positive rainfall anomalies. But remarkably, in off-rack or total region to the east, you see like suppressed rainfall anomaly on either side of equator because his background state is symmetrical between northern and southern hemisphere. Whereas we are discussing northern hemisphere summer. So the southern hemisphere is not conducive to convection. So we have to chop off Fred's figure in our mind, chop off this part, keep this part. So this part is another, I think is analogous to observed the northwestern Pacific suppressed rainfall and anti-cyclic circulation in response to the Indian Ocean warming. Okay, so I think this is the only model results I'm going to show. But I think it's quite remarkable there is some agreement here. This also consistent to our modern experiment with SST prescribed in the Indian Ocean. But theory by being one to maintain a specific Pacific. How do you, I'll come back to this point. Yeah, yeah, go ahead. I'm a bit confused about what the contour is in the shading. Oh, the shading, contour and shading are both rainfall response to an imposed positive SST anomaly in this circled region. Just significance is the thick line. Thick line above the thick line is significant. So perhaps Fred did like a 10 year or 20 year simulation, right? And then, yeah. 150. 150, yeah, so highly significant. Yeah, so all this kind of atmospheric so far, right? So like people know Indian Ocean is going to warm following an El Nino. But people didn't really address why the Indian Ocean warming should persist into summer, right? Yeah, I guess it makes sense that Indian Ocean would warm, but why it would persist into summer. So I'm not going to, yeah, John. It's not obvious to me why. Uh-huh. I know it's sort of probably obvious to everybody. What is the reason for the warming? There are several. So one is often invoked argument is the eastward shift of the convection. So then the Indian Ocean would have less clouds, right? So that would warm the SST. But people have done like a heat budget analysis. That proved to be secondary. That's not important. The important part people discovered from a heat budget analysis is the wind induced the latent heat flux. So somehow the winds reduces after El Nino. Yeah, over the, yeah. Yeah, so actually next I'm going to make an argument. The sustained warming in the North Indian Ocean through summer and sustained atmospheric anti-psychotic circulation. They are the coupled. They form a couple modes. So I will show some evidence. So yeah, just this part, right? So the lower panel shows repeats what I just said. Like suppressed convection, reduced rainfall and increased somewhat increased rainfall over Indian Ocean. And then you see this dipolar mode like a Southern Indian increase and Northern Indian decrease. So that's the UF2 of Indian rainfall variability. But that's actually not very distinguished. What's really big is this one, the suppressed rainfall. And then this is a marginal gear pattern in the tropospheric temperature. So this is a post El Nino anomalies in the atmosphere, warm free troposphere temperature, suppressed rainfall on the flank of this Kelvin wave. And then the suppressed rainfall is going to generate, is going to be coupled with anti-psychotic circulation at low level, right? And then the anti-psychotic circulation on the Southern flank is going to be easterly wind anomalies. And easterly wind anomalies going against the Southwest wind, right? So that's going to keep North Indian Ocean warm. And the warmer North Indian Ocean is going to send warm Kelvin wave into the Pacific, reinforcing that anti-psychotic circulation. So I believe, in a sense, look at this, right? So in the first part, I mentioned El Nino has a center of action in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. So the center stage of El Nino, of course, is the equatorial Pacific. Yeah, sure, most part. But in the post El Nino summer, the central stage of El Nino actually shifts to Indo-Western Pacific. The most persistent El Nino induced anomaly are found over Indo-Western Pacific. For a reason, exactly because there's a couple mode that provides the positive feedback that would go against the dissipation, some of the dissipation, the radiation, whatever. So I think the post El Nino summer, the shift of the anomalies into the Indo-Western Pacific. So there's a warm North Indian Ocean which generates a Kelvin wave response which is associated with an anti-psychote. Yeah. And that anti-psychote reduces the- Monsoon away, yeah. Over the North Indian Ocean, which is positive feedback. Exactly, exactly. So is that exactly because there's a couple mode is selected by ANSO? So we see in the post-ANSO summer, in various parts of the Asian summer monsoon region, you repeatedly see this post-ANSO signals. Exactly because there's a couple mode. So again, maybe I would draw a similarity from the second part of my talk, right? El Nino is a mode, but when you hit the Eastern Pacific with a hammer like El Nino, in March, April, it develops a dipolar Maradona mode. Whereas you hit, in the Western Pacific with a hammer of El Nino, you're gonna see this I-Core I-Pock, right? In the Western Pacific, ocean capacity. So this is, I believe is a couple mode. I don't have time, but actually we have done some model experiments to show this mode can arise even without El Nino. I don't have time, I don't want to go to too much technical detail. But just from observations, so I hope you can see that the anomalies are organized in a way to form positive feedback. Okay, so as I mentioned, there's another anomalies, pattern anomaly, I have not spoke of too much. So you see on the Eastern part of the Anticyclonic circulation. Remember that the tree, the monoclonal winds are westerly, penetrating through South China Sea into what is extremely Western Pacific. But the tree winds remain in the, much of the subtropical Pacific ocean. So the Anticyclonic circulation is actually causing a cooling here. So the cooling is in a sense is also handy because locally you can suppress rainfall, right? So suppressed rainfall is going to excite low level Anticyclonic circulation. So the warming here and the cooling here are the optimal configuration for Anticyclonic formation. And this thing actually starts in the previous preceding spring season. So we have some argument for this to develop into this. So it's more complicated, but I just choose the simple part to present here. But I think they are complementary. This is the optimal configuration for me. I think nature always choose the optimal pattern, right? You know, all the patterns nature choose makes most sense, naturally. Yeah, so this is, I will say, a bit of surprise to me. Initially I just thought I tried to use the well-known Indian Ocean warming to explain the Anticyclonic circulation and suppressed rainfall. But only later I recognized they are actually coupled. So it takes time for you to see the true beauty of nature. So okay, oh, wow, it's dark. What happened? Okay, yeah, so just to summarize. So I think the slides I have shown so far illustrate Anticyclonic effects the Asian summer monsoon in both concurrent and subsequent summers. So the concurrent summer effect is kind of obvious, but Walker noticed more than 100 years ago, but they are increasing evidence indicating Anso has an effect on the subsequent summer. And then this Indo-Western Pacific Ocean capacitor, we view as a couple more seem to give rise to this coherent, recurrent post-Anso summer anomalies as illustrated by those two UFs. So UF one concurrent Anso effect, UF two post-Anso effect. So all this seem to now kind of fit together to a degree. You know, as the insect asked me, there are things that we still don't understand. But and also every El Nino is different. So people have tried to use this post-El Nino mode to forecast what might happen in Eastern China, right? Especially in 2016, Nino 3.4 in terms of Nino 3.4 is one of the largest El Nino instrumental record. So by this people would predict if El Nino, that El Nino is typical, people actually predicted a major flooding event along the Yangtze River basin over China. But the prediction proved to be correct for the first half of the summer and the second half of the summer is all went out the window. So again, you know, I said nature is beautiful, but their beauty we still haven't seen or haven't recognized. So I think maybe in the Eastern China prediction, I think because it's a subtropical milititude monosystem. So maybe there is intrinsic limit predictability on the seasonal time scale just because the internal variability of the atmosphere is a lot bigger than in the tropics. So there might be a limit as to what we can predict, but that certainly doesn't limit our ability to understand even if it's internal variability, you said random, but random happens for a reason also. You know, it just, you know, we're convenient. Yeah, so the paper, most of what I talk about in second part is summarized in the review paper in Advanced Atmospheric Science 2016. You can go to take a look. So yeah, so okay, yeah, in sec. Just an excellent talk. Actually, the fourth to SST pattern, which is in recent years SST pattern also did with Anso, like after 1998. But when you say the pattern, SST pattern in young ocean in the 70s and 60s, it's much, much higher. Yeah, much weaker also. So it's much stronger than SST warming in the past. Oh, in concurrent summer. Concurrent summer. Yeah, okay. Concurrent winter. Okay. Concurrent winter. So that tropics, somewhat, mode one and mode two, some decades combined. Yeah. So they can be separated, there are many problems. Yeah, I think the concurrent Anso mode is very robust. As long as there is Anso. The post-Anso mode somehow experiences quite substantial into multi-decay of modulations. So we don't understand, you know, one explanation is the post-Elnino mode requires relatively large Elnino amplitudes. So Elnino, we know like the variance has modulated over the instrumental record. So it has been high since the 70s and was high about 100 years ago. And in between it was kind of a mediocre, like modest. So maybe the modest Anso would have a difficult time to go through the following summer just because so many things are going in between, right? So you need a hit with a really big hammer in order to see the mode, perhaps. Okay, I'm done, so I'm open for questions. Yeah.