 Okay, very good morning to you. It is Tuesday the 18th of August. Hope you're doing well Don't forget to check out amplify trading comm our website. If you haven't already done so for any of those interested in trading We've got our next one week intensive advanced program happening starting on Monday And then we've got our professional program also starting on the same time Which is a five week program where you actually get to trade our capital as well as part of that process So check it out. If you haven't already done so and I forget to like and subscribe to the channel Really appreciate some of the comments from yesterday. And of course, I'm always happy to help whenever I can But just having a look then at the charts and this morning as I was going through quite a lot of the news I would say things were Pretty quiet overall. There wasn't a great deal that was really Getting me excited for a news perspective, but certainly there are some interesting things to watch and and a lot of that is coming from Some key technical levels US indices back within striking distance of of all-time highs, of course And then you've got gold back above 2000 oil as well flirting back with some interesting Topside levels as it continues to be underpinned a little bit from yesterday the idea that China is really ramping up its pre-ordering if you like of The transportation of future purchases of energy products in the US But also as well a lot of people looking ahead to the JMMC meeting And some reports overnight about the fact that compliance levels are looking particularly good Which would be great for oil in terms of helping to Offset some of the revision downwards that we've seen from a number of bodies last week on the demand side And then in the currency market, I really wanted to have a look at the dollar again I started off this week really talking about it in the title of the briefing on Monday About is it make or break week for the dollar and if anything after that episode of kind of yield Short-term obsession the market now has reverted back to trend yields A declining again that meaning golds moving back up again dollars moving back down again currency pairs right back at striking distance you're on that long-term key Trend line as is the Aussie dollar, so we'll have a look at that as well But look, let's get into some of the charts and let's start with gold because it's always a good talking point and Going to remove my Camera just so you can see everything a bit more clearly so here looking at the gold chart and 30 minute candlestick Just to give us a perspective of really the last three weeks I guess a price activity where we were finding some restriction around that 2000 level as you can see here on the left-hand side hit that level rejected a couple times the Paul Wax We're getting ever more shallow which would be indicative then of a Impending break of which when came you can see caused a quite quick acceleration of price And then we went all the way up to a high Which was just short really of around 2100 we had the breakdown in price of which we now know and Obviously the number of factors behind that but as I said now that that yield Story has kind of passed for the moment This is one of the things that we were saying at the time when gold was declining and that was the fact that yes despite that move that had happened and for good reasons The idea here is that gold is going to be Undependent supported going forward in the weeks and months ahead through into Q3 and Q4 Whether or not it's the Federal Reserve Continuing to sound you know an ultra accommodative mode, you know, they are committed to Unlimited's quantitative easing. We've got the minutes coming out and obviously a lot of people looking about any changes in Some new policy tweaks going forward. I don't think that's going to happen necessarily in the minutes But we've got the September meeting, which is quite key you got Jackson Hole happening the symposium at the end of the month and The idea here is that there's enough geopolitical risk with US China still to play out and Potentially to get even more hostile as we go into the campaign real period ahead of the election in November and Then also you've got the election in itself Which is looking likely given the coronavirus situation to be a mail-in ballot system Which inevitably is going to lead to a massive disruption for the way of which results are going to be known And that's being reflected in some of the hedging that's happening at the moment as well So plenty to be bullish about gold irrespective of that incredible selloff that we had obviously just a week ago So and so here we are we are back above now that key psychological level again So 2000 you know interesting yesterday. We had this this kind of breakout of what was I just put an ellipse You know, it's been whenever they have an asset like this, which is quite momentum-based when it does start to move similar with silver They do tend to react really nicely to to technical levels because a lot of these intraday short-term speculators Are wanting to get in and out of the market. They're not looking here to hold a longer term position They just want to find the nearest and clearest way of proactively managing the trade Looking to get in and get out and as we saw yesterday a breakthrough then that level of around 1975 really accelerated the price and where did they the balls chase it up to well right up to literally pretty much to the cent 2000 and then that's it book profits. So completely Behavioral there and technical in terms of the way that in which that move because soon as we hit 2000 as the Kind of ultimate objective on the run high yesterday Where we did move if you think about it right from the beginning of the day, we're talking about a $40 move So pretty punchy as well on that side getting overextended technical level 2000 what better target than to book some and then as soon as it hits it It drops 12 bucks pretty much within the following hour. We have to You know despite that obviously we're on the recovery now and we're right here We're at the 618 fib retracement of the initial High in gold all the way to the the the route low that we had on the 12th. So that's providing a little bit of near-term resistance But yeah further to the upside then I've got to start looking and just kind of following the price back high You've got the hour one on the daily pivots, which would come in at around 2016 17 And then just using this the previous structure of the price and how it responded on the previous highs and Support in the lows. So if we're looking around here 26 27 can be interesting and then further up 36 45 and someone so yeah at the moment then as What we were on the desk largely anticipating the sell-off in gold's been Decidedly short-lived as the market reverts back to trend and what does trend mean? Well, let me just show you the Dixie because for all the same reasons I was just mentioning particularly on the the Fed side the expectation then with a fairly slow and Kind of grounded out recovering the US economy is going to require ongoing support in that in that sense from a monetary policy perspective Now I was just looking at the the Dixie and you can see here this morning The Dixie is trading down about a quarter of 1% but look where we are the blue line is indicative of the current price So 92 618 and if you actually look here, you've got that peak that we had back in I mean this is going we're going pretty far back here We're talking 2003 Support 2004 resistance with a double top there. You can see in 2004 and 2005 So 0304 05 where we are right now is a really key level which was around I guess 93 But just below there literally to where we are 92 and a half 92 60 You can see there the market responded to it as well Back in the summer of 2015 again in early kind of Q2 of 2016 Chopped through and you can see the Failed break in the Dixie back in 2017 But then when it did break at the end of that year, we saw a much deeper move from really around 92 and a half all the way down then to 88 and a half which then starts to encapsulate some of the peaks of that price of dollar recovery in 08 and 09 2010 so I do think it is a critical moment really for the dollar and and overall although these are important support areas I do think that Ultimately, I think there's enough In play to suggest the potential for that break to happen and a continuation of dollar weakness and of course if that does happen then things like The Euro dollar or let me just I don't think I was showing my my Dixie chart there So if I let me just make sure I was showing the Dixie here So this is where we are at the moment. You can see that blue line here are those levels I was just referring to 03 04 and 05 These areas here where the price of responded to before and that previous break around this current area Saw back two years ago quite a deep run in the dollar So the point being is we're a key area here for for the greenback and when I start looking at Euro dollar Obviously a decent push on the upside yesterday if we start looking at a multi-year chart We're right back up there retesting this summer 2018 high We've had a few failed attempts here Looking week to week. We're right back at that level now and obviously if we put that on an even longer time frame This is not just critical on that previous chart for the summer of 2018 This also corresponds with that long-term trend line go back to 2008 and retest in 2014 So really quite key here because we've mentioned many times From a from a timing perspective, we've obviously got the European PMIs coming out on Friday It could be quite interesting perhaps that we have to wait till the end of the week to provide that catalyst But a break here technically does open up the potential for quite sharp upside in the euro Then on the Aussie, but just bring that in as well It's a similar type of thing The Aussie is right up here now following suit so all of these dollar pairs He did have the RBA minutes overnight But you know, that's not really the driving force at the moment in these currency dollar related pairs it is the greenback that's dictating direction and Overnight we've had a little retest up around a similar type of level on this this trend line and that trend line is basically this which is that 2014 retest 2018 and where we are at the moment the one that we were looking at yesterday So again a really key level all determined really not so much by by the Aussie Short-term but much more by the the dollar and the dollar is sitting at these fairly precarious levels where I do think it is Open to the prospects of potentially re-weakening aggressively and further so Yeah, it's going to be interested to see how how that plays out for sure and today's session Definitely it does need to be to be watched A quick look elsewhere a few other things. I just wanted to mention was Let's just have a look at the oil market. This is on Reuters this morning talking about oil or lower Suppliers seek to hold promises on output cuts. Obviously it comes a day ahead of the JMMC meeting as I mentioned This report suggests According to two OPEC plus sources that compliance with OPEC plus oil output cuts were seen at 97% in July now. I know that's not perfect, but that's a damn sight higher to an OPEC's pretty Poor reputation to adhere to a predefined quota So that I would say is a kind of positive sign And with oil markets is having a look at this as well This morning, so let me just transition my chart again so Just gonna move the screen See a couple of things I'm looking at here in the oil market This is looking on a 30 minute So a couple of areas where it's kind of rising trend line here from price from Going back to the middle of last week or early last week where it's just restricting price And it did respect that yesterday evening and then going back to the fourth Kind of an area here where prices just be squeezing up but in the near term, I guess if we're looking more Relatable for the current price activity. I'd be keeping an eye on if I put this rectangle here that previous Push higher that we had Yesterday afternoon before the eventual break came into the US Sessions after Europe had left then we've come back down in the Asia Pacific session and European morning to find support of the same exact area So 4290 quite key in the near term In that respect any break below there then be looking you've got the pivot just underneath of course Which does coincide quite close proximity to that initial hide-up seen at the overnight on the 14th and then any further push down Towards the low that we had yesterday afternoon So a couple things to watch there in near term, but obviously on a longer dated chart on oil If I just remove tidy this up one second So here that 21 DMA as we were discussing on Monday There's not 21 Yeah, 21 DMA the 50 DMA is a red line So the blue line the 21 has been holding up quite nicely and has continued to do so both on Friday And even yesterday it got no me not that close But it's still being a pretty solid indicator And for the moment then looking to retarget up and around those initial highs we had on the fifth Definitely within sight. We're right at the top end of the range that we've traded basically so far in the last Seven days or so so worth keeping an eye there on the Factor of charts though, let's just have a quick look at a couple of us indices Because the Nasdaq Continuing to do its thing. I mean I read this morning as well not those particularly related but Tesla now Market cap in the u.s. It's the the 10th largest company in the United States for America, which is just incredible But yeah, I was looking at the the Nasdaq the Nasdaq's been doing that same pattern really is what we saw Initially back down here. Yeah, I remember when we were at 10 to 96 It kind of test test break And then we're here. We were test test test break and we're doing the same thing again now So, you know if history does repeat itself then perhaps then we can get a further squeeze on the upside here but struggling a little bit you could say to really just Power on up. Although I still feel quite bullish and any pullbacks Got quite a key level there 11,058 And then you've got that bottom end of that trend line and the 21 DMA Which is also being particularly strong in the Nasdaq over a period of time It would be good areas to reinsert along even if we did see a pullback But there's still a lot of indecision at the moment on Capitol Hill I'm sure a few guys have been reading the latest but latest on that is basically The Senate Republicans plan to introduce now a scaled back Stimulus bill according to two Senate Republican aides The legislation will include a three hundred dollar a week enhanced employment benefits So that number now it's coming down the members at around four hundred down from the previous six hundred that was in play before its expiration at the end of July There's also going to include money for small business aid additional US Postal Service funding and protection from employers against lawsuits stemming from COVID-19 infections The democratic support though is seen as Unlikely the Senate is in recess at the moment So it's probably unlikely that Mitch McConnell is going to even bother calling them back for this And the proposal could be the last kind of tabled offer now Until then given the fact that they normally go on to an extended break Which the Senate is already on until they return in September So we could have not only we had basically like a two week impasse here of what exactly are they going to do And there's like the stimulus bill which is quite key for the ongoing recovery of the US of course It could be another two weeks before they and come back from their kind of some rake In that sense. So the thing the point here of what they've done is it's kind of as it says It's a slimmed down scale back proposal House Speaker Pelosi and the Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer have offered to trim their proposal by one trillion Remember theirs stood at three and a half. So they've come down to two and a half But with the Republicans tabling what they have for me this entire thing is just dead on arrival. It's a no-go and Yeah, the markets are not freaked out by this But It's looking likely from a timing perspective We might have to wait a number of weeks in fact for something to happen the fact that the market hasn't really ratted so much I think tells quite a lot with how they deem that issue that I still feel Most of the opinion that something will happen eventually and perhaps then that's just enough then Just to go through this kind of touring and throwing knowing that generally some of the economic data points in the US have been Pretty good and the economy. Well, not the economy. The market is holding up. So therefore, what's the rush? At this point, obviously they're playing quite a high stakes game here, but If I was a politician, I'd probably be doing the same for us thinking tactically in that way. So yeah, I wouldn't be expecting too much I don't expect any type of progression with what the Republicans have put forward here Yesterday, but just so you're aware the S&P of course as well With the Nasdaq pushing it around these all-time highs the S&P is right back up there again, of course. Here it is So we're just within striking distance really now We've already got another 20 points or so to go and we're right back up to where we were back at the peak on the 20th of Feb So the kind of inevitability about that continues to to play out Okay One of the things though just talking about the Republicans and I just briefly wanted to to mention then the polls obviously the Democratic Convention is now underway lots of pop shots Even Michelle Obama getting involved talking about how unfit Donald Trump is to run as president Definitely focusing on the Covid-19 situation and its impact that it's had on the US economy has been the main targeted kind of a theme thus far Interestingly though in the polls it's worth keeping an eye on they haven't really fluctuated too much as yet But it'll be interesting to see where we stand at the end of the week after the convention is finished In a little over a week We've gone from around a six point four lead to Biden back up and rewidening to seven point seven Since the appointment of the running mate Kamala Harris and also probably now a little further extension Given the amount of volume of press coverage to this event slightly to draw for them So yeah, quite interested to see how far it rewidens at this point in time Separately although everything I've mentioned is relatively upbeat, you know kind of oil is up equities are still holding up At this point the one thing I did want to mention was Covid-19 and a few areas. I'm still keeping an eye on and before I look at this one Just really looking at mainland Europe. I know Spain was definitely a focal point about three or four weeks ago And that's kind of dropped off a little bit as they've started to get a little bit back into Control of that that latest acceleration and cases that they were seeing But yeah looking at the seven-day rolling average of new cases per million of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 and as you can see the US is basically Plateau'd and if anything gradually decelerating but Spain UK Germany and Italy still on the up at the moment and One of the ones that caught my eye this morning was that Germany has recorded its highest number of new coronavirus cases in nearly four months The reproductive rate now above one, which we know is quite critical So I don't think this is a reason to spook markets right now if it were that would already be materializing So I think the price moving in itself is is the context Enough that you need But what I am saying is that this does definitely you know coronavirus is not like a done deal at this point Although the market I think is comfortable with the developments of this is showing worldwide at the moment Hence the reason why if anything it's almost like a perfect cocktail where for an equity long environment Where it's going to keep monetary policy in very much easing mode the economy is going to have that ongoing commitment and Generally then some of the data has been suggested that things have started to actually pick up again so Yeah, just worth keeping an eye on that's all I would say Okay, calendar wise for today. What have we got? We had the RBA minutes overnight Not really necessary for me to speak a great deal about it. The summary was the August meeting Stated that a cognitive approach would be maintained for as long as necessary and a three-year-old target would be maintained until there is Progress towards full employment and inflation. So on those metrics then They're going to remain in accommodative accommodative mode for a long period of time and that's kind of the whole point That's the whole point as well in my mind that's helping this yield Continuation and we've got over that episode of movement that we had last week when obviously the 10 year did break out to the downside Through some key technical levels of what was resistance and then support And now we're on the move back higher again and again in short term Just looking at the last couple of days price activity had a nice response Yesterday evening and around the 50 DMA and that has held a couple times overnight in the Asia Pacific session And so we're back up to that kind of range High and encapsulated some of the price activity from yesterday in the US 10 year now But back to the calendar the apart from that then today is particularly quiet and Terms of UK and mainland Europe Nothing in fact scheduled from a data perspective Housing data coming out the US starts and permits and then the weekly infantry data from the API this evening Earnings wise it's kind of like bookends earning season. You get the brick and mortar kind of retail names So Walmart and Home Depot are reporting Dow components so worth keeping an eye on if you're looking at the futures market Head of the cash open and in front of fixed and fixed income traders Guilt so UK supply and also 4 billion euros worth of a 2027 auction coming out of the German Treasury as well but that is it so Wish you all the best for the session and any questions at all Just feel free to leave comment always have to help, but I'll see you same time tomorrow. Thanks so much guys