 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is having a wonderful, wonderful weekend. It is a three day weekend. The stock market is closed on Monday in observance for Dr. Martin Luther King's birthday. Okay, so we are getting an extra day off if you are new to the channel or just a loyal viewer. We appreciate you as always. If you could be so kindly to support the channel, like the channel. If you are new, please subscribe and we again try to give you our clean, unbiased efforts of what we believe the stock market is going to accomplish and accomplish on a short term basis. So let's talk about the tape, right? If you've been watching this channel for many, many years, you know that I am a very, very firm believer of your opinion means nothing. My opinion means even more nothing, right? It's all about the charts, right? Everybody, no matter if you are trading for one day for 30 years or anything in between, we all have the same data in front of us, right? This is why we always talk about a non-biased approach instead of what we feel is going to happen, what we need to happen, what we desperately desire or painfully are desperate to see things play out. That's not what the small stock market is. The stock market goes up, the stock market goes down. If you believe in technical analysis like that is my holy Bible, right? As far as the trading world goes, we try to navigate the markets based on supply and demand. And obviously the market can't go higher if supply is not cleaned up. The market can't go lower if demand is not cleaned up. And that's kind of where we are, right? If you've been just kind of watching this broadcast just over the last couple of weeks, we talk about on every single level, give you some pretty specific numbers where the market needs to confirm, or in this case the QQQs need to confirm to either go higher or go lower. As we all know, we started the week of 2023 below the 50-day moving average, which basically kept on going a little lower and lower and lower. And then next thing you know, the bears got tired, right? And that's exactly what happens. There is no magical price point or the quote-unquote bottom that everybody looks for, but there's always exhaustion levels, right? Eventually no matter what market you trade, even going back into the generational lows of 2009 after the mortgage crisis, nothing materialistically has changed. People were losing their homes, people lost their jobs, and the financial implications pretty much lasted for years and years and years. But eventually the sellers got tired, right? That's all what happened. And if you guys remember, while some of you guys who traded back then, 2009 was the generational bottom, and we rallied for the next X amount of years, right? We had a big, big rally. You can make a case all the way up to 2021, right? And then next thing you know, 2022, we had this bear market. We started the year in the bear market. And little you know, things change, right? And that's the most important part. And sellers just like in 2009 got tired with no materialistic change. Sellers got tired about six days ago, okay? They just got tired. And that's exactly what happened. There is no mythical bottom. If you're looking for a mythical bottom and you want to be right, that's on you. That's a social media thing. Nobody cares, trust me. Nobody cares about the person who talked about the bottom, who mentioned the bottom, who is documenting their bottom. Nobody cares, okay? That's for kids. That's for children. That's not for the grown-up sections. The grown-ups were trying to figure out where to put their money next to take advantage of the next short-term potential. And if you've been watching this video for the last, you know, just five days, right? We talked about every single level. Just go back to the last one, two, three, four, five. Just, you know, six videos, right? We talked about the importance of this 270 level. We talked about the importance of building above this 20-day moving average to get to the 277, 278 level, which was the 50-day moving average that got rejected. And we all know the importance of the 50-day. We finally got above the 50-day moving average of a close above the 277 level. Then we talked about the next measure potential of roughly 281. We also talked about the necessity for the bulls, you know, to continue to shrug off bad news to build over the 50-day moving average. And if you look at the action the last, you know, two, three days of the week, you could see some really important levels. The bulls made a tremendous stands. You had the resumption and the reclaim of the 50-day. The next day was the CPI number. And if you guys remember, the first three to four minutes of the CPI number, it looks like, oh, here we go again. And to bulls credit, they bought the dip within five minutes of technology, right? And just exploded the stocks higher. And the next day, which was Friday, they tried to do it again, right? They tried to do again. The bulls lost the 50-day moving average at the open. There is something called shorting in the hole, which is a big no-no, especially in bull market, which basically means sellers were emotionally scarred from the previous bear market. They sold their stocks pre-market only for the bulls to buy it, shorting it to the hole. Again, a big no-no. The bulls reclaimed back the 50-day moving average, and then we were off and running and closed at the top of the range here at 281 that we talked about on Thursday's video. And now the question is, what happens next, right? So for the bulls to continue this kind of pretty good move in the last four or five days, and if you look at the numbers towards the end of the week, they were pretty impressive numbers. The S&P gained about 2.7%. The Dow was up 2%. And again, the tech-heavy Nasdaq that lost 33% last year that I talked about in the last couple of videos, is it really, really possible that we could get a 20-25% rally this year? Again, I don't know. Okay, I don't know. Again, like I said, we could lose the 50-day moving average, and that completely goes out the window. But as long as we continue to build, right, and that's the most important part, as long as we continue to build, and the bulls keep on discarding bad news over and over and over again, they keep on closing above the 50-day moving average and price-improving levels. Again, we don't need to go up every single day, and that's the most important part. Just the same way we were trading in a bear market for predominantly 80%, 85% of 2020, at 2022, we know that the price action, the predominant price action was going to be through the downside, but the market didn't need to go down every single day. You're going to have reverse trends, and on those reverse trends, you want to kind of leave the market alone, right? You want to be kind of dealt the neutral because those two, seven reversal days, they're good for 50, 60, 70 cents, maybe $1.50. The trend days are good for two, three, four, $5. That's the whole point of why they're a trend. And if you look at the NASDAQ 100 or the QQQs, there's a couple more levels that we need to start stretching again. You can see here at the top of the channel here, now that we got to this 81 level perfectly into supply, correlated both with the 150 day and the Bollinger Man, now we need to build, continue to build the base above 281. The next key level will be, if we can establish a new base above 283, and you can see here, 283 is the highs from December 15th, and 283, or roughly 282.80s, not split hairs, let's call it 283. If we can get a close above 283 on the NASDAQ 100 or the QQQs, then we have a bigger potential move to this 287 level. We'll stretch out and measure potential on a lot of stocks. And if you look at a lot of names, and we'll talk about some names in a second, they're starting to stretch, right? They're starting to stretch, they're starting to come out of pretty good bottom channels, and those are the names you really want to pay attention to because remember, the most aggressive price action is always from the bottom, right? It's never from the tops. Top is continuation of the breakouts from the bottom. The bottom is what we talk about all the time, jumping out the first floor, right? When you're jumping out the first floor here or here or here, that's fine. When you're jumping off the 10th floor here and here and here, then you talk about having a potential accident, and potential having a severed head, and nobody wants to die, at least I don't. And that's exactly where we are. For the bears to kind of take back control, they're going to need to start taking down some trends. And when some trends are in a bull market, you're looking for higher highs, higher lows. And you can see here, for the last four days, here's a low, here's a higher low, here's a higher low, here's a higher low. So for the bears to take control back, they're going to need to lose at least Friday's lows and close below $2.76, which will also correlate getting reclaiming and taking control back on the 50-day moving average. As a bull, you don't want that. The fact that we trade on both sides of the market doesn't make a difference for us. Yes, again, I would love to see prolonged bull market. Again, as you guys have seen, it's just so much more fluid. It's just so much easier mentally, technically. There's more market participants. Everybody's in a better mood. There's more liquidity. It just feels better, right? Just feels right. I mean, I love a bear market. Don't get me wrong, but again, there's just something different about a bull market. You could take inventory. The bulls have a longer leash, and the price action will make you right. Even the biggest chasers and the biggest novices on the planet will ultimately get rewarded in a bull market. You can just see that right now. In the last couple of weeks, we don't talk about small caps a lot, but you talked about in the last couple of weeks some really crazy runs in the small cap world. If that doesn't correlate as well with speculation money and being in a bull market environment, look at Bitcoin. Look at Ethereum. Look at all these crypto stocks. The idea that they were their standalone entity is ridiculous. When the stock market goes down, they go down. When the stock market goes up, they go up. I mean, if anybody doesn't see that, it's a very easy argument. I don't trade the cryptocurrencies, never did. I'll trade the small caps once in a while. There's option flow. But you could see it clean as day. They are tied into direct market sentiment. So when the market is good, they're going to be good. When the market is bad, they're going to be bad. And that's how we roll into this new week. And if you look at all the big players right now, all the big NASDAQ 100 players, they're doing their thing. Except for one. We'll talk about that one in a second. You guys know which one it is. It's Tesla. It hasn't really rallied. But the crazy part about it is Tesla really hasn't gone down. It might as well start off with Tesla. Here's the crazy part about it. If you guys look at the last couple of weeks on Tesla, there's been a couple of bad news that came out on stock. You had a couple of weeks ago. They came out and they came out and said there was a rumor. I don't even remember if it was a rumor. It was actually a headline from the company. But it was basically where there's a chatter. They were cutting production. They tried to take the stock down. The stock reversed had a nice two, three day run. On Friday, on Thursday, they had an announcement. They're cutting prices. 6% to 20% in all their models. You said, wow, this is going to be a death blow to the stock. Not so much. They actually held the bottom of the range here. It held literally the bottom of the range here. But the crazy part about it is every single time they come out with bad news and it gets engulfed. And you say to yourself logically, wow, that's good. The fact that they're brushing off bad news, ironically, it still can't rally. It's brushing off bad news, which is bullish, but the part that just doesn't make sense after they brush off the bad news, they just can't even rally. Maybe this week, right? Maybe this week is finally the week that Tesla finally gets out of this channel. You can see how just tight this channel is. It just cannot break the downside. There just doesn't appear to be enough fear to break the downside. But at some point, man, it either has to break above this channel here to the upside or break below the downside. Again, so far it hasn't. I've been trading Tesla for years, man. This is my favorite stock. But this week was just incredibly weird. Like the upward moves are like $1 or $2. The downward move is like $1 and then snaps right back. And so, again, it has to get out of this channel. And hopefully by the time we are broadcasting on Tuesday or Wednesday or Thursday or in this lifetime, the next, we'll finally get our break above this channel, whether it's the upside through the downside we don't know. But it's to be determined. But if you look at all the other Nasdaq names, especially the market leaders, they're acting incredibly well. Netflix finally broke out out of this top of the channel here. This is the highest close in this whole formation. Again, not a big move. It broke out like $3 or so above the December 13 highs. You thought it would be a bigger move, especially at the market reversing. Not so much. But this is the highest close in this whole formation. You have Amazon, right? Looking incredible, absolutely incredible. You can make an argument. This is definitely one of the strongest names in the Nasdaq 100 right now. Again, reclaimed the 50-day moving average. Had a monster move. Rested, reclaimed on Friday. And now it looks like it wants to refill this whole channel here. So if the market continues to go, I do believe the stock can test this 102 next week if the market continues to rally. This looks really, really good. Again, they were coming for the 100 calls, $102 calls. So this lines up really well. Microsoft, a really great move off the bottom of the range. And here's the great part, right? It hasn't even reclaimed the 50-day moving average. So that's what we're watching this week, right? From Microsoft, you can see here, it's still below the 50-day. If Microsoft can reclaimed the 50-day, then you got, you know, 43, 46 on deck, especially with the strength of the market. Apple, right? It looks, again, not sexy. Not sexy. Again, remember, Microsoft and Apple were the leaders to the downside. But if you could just get above this channel here, man, we could start seeing, you know, 38. Again, this is another name that has not even gotten above the 50-day moving average yet. So if it could start reclaiming this whole channel here, maybe it starts making a move into the 140 level. You have Meta, who's just been on an absolute really great run. You know, you're talking about the stock going from this little baby channel here from 117 all the way up to this 140 level, which is really, really impressive. The chip stocks have turned around. Obviously, everybody knows about NVIDIA. Here's a perfect example of NVIDIA reclaiming the 50-day moving average, getting above this channel, going into the next supply. It got above yesterday's channel, went to the next supply here of 169. If it could start building off that 69, 70 level, I think we see 74, 76 for the stock as well. So if you go through, you know, a lot of these NASDAQ 100 names, they just look great. Look at Starbucks. This is the highest close in this whole formation going into next week. Look at Moderna, right? This is the highest close in this whole formation. Finally broke out Friday above this daily supply zone. That looks really, really great. Again, if you do your homework and just go through, you know, the NASDAQ 100 names, there are plenty of really, really strong names out there. Look at CRM. You know, there's another name I really like going into this week. Look how tight this channel is, right? And it's the most exciting average. All it needs to do is just get above this channel here and it has its next leg up. So, you know, we're set up here. Again, technical analysis, you know, I've been saying this for nearly 24 years. It's not subjective. We don't care about your opinion. That's what the stock market tells us. Price action is everything. My opinion doesn't matter. Your opinion doesn't matter. What you think has to happen in three years, sure as hell doesn't happen. If you're using technical analysis as a guide, you can make professional decisions as an intelligent, responsible adult. And that's the only thing you can ask for. If this is a year that you're looking for change, and again, if you've been watching my channel for a while, again, we trade the PS60 theory. We are the only ones on the planet who trade the PS60 theory. So, if you are curious or have been curious or finally looking to make kind of the leap into the wonderful world of pivots, you know, the webinar meets Monday through Friday. I speak for six and a half hours a day, constant market action, all live trades, all live pivots, all that good stuff that you can see technical analysis at work. And the most important thing is not about me. It's not about you. It's all about price action. Guys, God bless. I wish everybody an amazing, amazing weekend. Again, do something nice for yourself. It's all about health and all about happiness. God bless. And I will see you all on Tuesday. Take care.