 Good afternoon everyone and welcome to the Center for Strategic and International Studies for today's event on Africa and the arms trade treaty. Sharon Squasoni who directs our proliferation prevention program has run into a travel snafu in Japan So you get me instead. I'm Jennifer Cooke director of the Africa program But I do want to say a big thanks to her team for putting this event together We're looking today at the UN arms trade treaty and its potential significance for conflict and insecurity in Africa According to the African Union some 20% of the world's small arms and light weapons are to be found in Africa a continent where capacities to track regulate and Control the inflow and proliferation of small arms is exceedingly weak The vast majority of these elusive arms come from outside of Africa Where unscrupulous non-African governments and arms traffickers like the infamous Victor boot and so forth have literally made a killing? today one only has to look at the brutality and devastation in the Central African Republic in South Sudan the predations of violent Extremist and militant groups like Boko Haram in Nigeria Al Shabaab in Somalia a Q. I am in in the Sahel M23 and DRC to understand How conflict how these conflicts have been made so much more deadly by the proliferation and easy access to arms At the heart of the arms trade treaty is an effort to curb the illicit trade of arms and weaponry That could potentially be used in genocide crimes against humanity and War crimes The arms trade treaty was adopted last year in April by the UN it was signed by the United States Last September there's still a long ways to go on the treaty For the US to become a party it has to pass a two-thirds vote within the Senate to ratify it And for the treaty to enter force it has to be Receive 50 ratifications globally and there are big questions ahead I think as the treaty faces opposition domestically from groups that worry about impact on gun owners and gun manufacturers in the US Reaching the global quorum And understanding really in practical terms how this treaty Alone can impact the situation in Africa and what else might be needed to have it To be able to reduce the toll of small arms within Africa So lots of questions ahead Reaching that global quorum getting a better understanding for African perspectives on the treaty only two to date have ratified even though this There was a great deal of rhetorical support early on from African states And the African Union and regional organizations have not shown a particularly energetic role in Moving this forward on the continent So today to give us a much better understanding of these questions and the broader Context in which they sit we're delighted to have with us Thomas Countryman Assistant Secretary of State with a Bureau of International Security and non-proliferation And Dr. Raymond Gilpin whose academic dean with the Africa Center for strategic studies Part of the National Defense University He's been a great friend an extremely thoughtful and rigorous analyst of African security challenges You have their short bios, so I'm not going to go into detail But really it's a great pleasure to host you both here today, and we're looking forward to your remarks on this I think we're going to begin with assistant secretary Countryman And then we'll turn to Raymond and leave plenty of time for question and answer This event is being webcast so we welcome our web viewers as well but when we do get into the Q&A if you could wait for the mic and Identify yourself before speaking so thanks very much and since secretary Countryman welcome Well, thank you Jennifer for that introduction and for Setting clearly and briefly the kinds of topics that I hope we can discuss today I have some definite views on some of these topics But I also have a great readiness to listen to other views about what we can do As you know at the end of the Cold War this stage had seemed set for Africa to emerge from decades of conflict and really realize its potential as a stable prosperous continent Sadly in the last 20 years, of course, we've seen civil conflict in many parts of Africa Not only genocides in Rwanda and Darfur, but regional and sub-regional conflicts An upswing in terrorism and even in some cases the effective collapse of central governments in some African states Many leaders in Africa are working hard on Regional solutions to these problems, but they also look to the outside world for assistance And the outside world of course has an obligation to help African states find solutions to these regional conflicts as Part of that solution many African states early on recognized the potential of a arms trade treaty To assist them in their efforts to contain and reduce the level of violence in civil conflicts And as a consequence African states were among those who led the political push To conclude a treaty at the United Nations The argument rested in part on a belief that a significant proportion of The problems of the that is the civil conflict problem in their countries Could be attributed to the illegal import and trafficking of small arms and light weapons throughout Africa from sources outside Africa and The treaty seemed to offer a way to help address The question of the flow of weapons originating from outside of the region After many years of hard work by countries from every region But crucially including African states at the United Nations and crucially including non-governmental Organizations that pushed for the treaty we were able to conclude a meaningful arms trade treaty Moving forward There is still more hard work to do both by states around the world and by NGOs We have to work hard maybe even harder than we did in the negotiations in order to ensure that African states that have signed and ratified the treaty effectively implement their new obligations And that's really what I want to talk about today is getting beyond the negotiation Getting beyond signing ceremonies ratification steps in Parliament To talk about the steps countries can now take to make the goals of the arms trade treaty a reality and in particular What can African states? one of the principal political impulses behind this treaty do Within the treaty and outside of the treaty to realize our common goals When secretary Kerry signed the arms trade treaty in September he explained what the treaty is about and what it And why it is important? He said it's about keeping weapons out of the hands of terrorists and rogue actors About reducing the risk of illegal international transfers of conventional arms that will be used to carry out crimes It was about keeping Americans safe and keeping Americans strong and doing the same for other countries in the world It was about peace and global security and about the advancement of humanitarian goals He also spelled out clearly what this treaty is not It's not about taking away domestic freedoms President Obama has restated his strong belief in an individual's Constitutional rights within the United States and this treaty is fully consistent with the United States constitutional rights The treaty recognizes the freedom of individuals and states to obtain possess and use arms for legitimate purposes and Crucially it reaffirms the sovereign right of each country to decide for itself consistent with its own Constitution and laws how to deal with conventional arms exclusively within its own borders and There's one other thing that this treaty is not it's not about limiting a country's sovereign rights to conduct responsible arms transfers The arms trade treaty is a trade regulation treaty focused exclusively on International trade and conventional arms. It seeks to create a global framework for Responsible regulations by each state of transfer of arms and the treaty recognizes that such transfer is a legitimate commercial activity that supports the national security and commercial interests of countries So to discuss the ATT after negotiation I Would say that in order to achieve the noble ideals of the ATT Promoting global peace advancing humanitarian objectives. It's not enough to sign or even not enough to ratify the treaty The state's parties will have to ensure that the rule of law and good governance are enhanced That each state's citizens can live in a stable and secure environment and that each government Achieves adequate control over international transfers and over national stockpiles of weapons So in this context, there's a number of state the steps that states can take to help achieve these ideals Some of the actions I described today go beyond the specific Obligations of the treaty but are no less essential to meeting its purpose. I Mention these today because it's important for all states to recognize that The ATT is not a solution in itself It is instead a tool that can be used to address the larger challenges that gave rise to the treaty we recognize of course as As Jennifer mentioned in the introduction that there is a significant problem with the illegal transfers of small arms and light weapons into Africa Particularly in the 1990s which have helped to fuel and sustain conflicts throughout the continent and Many of these illicit weapons even those imported decades ago are still in circulation today and Certainly most weapons in Africa have come from outside the continent. There are few Manufacturing capabilities within Africa not zero, but few but the illicit flow of weapons from outside of Africa is only one aspect of the problem a 2013 report by the UN office on drugs and crimes Writing about organized crime in West Africa said there are essentially five sources of illicit firearms in West Africa First legacy weapons from past conflicts in the region second weapons from recent conflicts in neighboring regions third weapons sold by or rented from corrupt security officials military and police within the country fourth weapons purposely transferred by neighboring governments and fifth and probably the smallest a relatively small number of weapons imported from outside Africa specific to those conflicts There has to be a means to address all the sources of weapons circulating in Africa and it's a tall order But it's important to recognize that the arms trade treaty in itself No matter how effectively implemented is not in itself enough to stem all these sources of weapons So Let's talk about some of the steps that I believe Still need to be taken by both by governments within Africa and governments outside of Africa We have to recognize that the international community must work together on a set of interrelated problems the United States and Other international actors particularly the European Union are prepared to help countries that are Determined to deal with exactly these issues. It's very much part of our legacy And I know part of the mission of the Bureau that I have the honor to lead Let's start with an action that is required by the treaty itself First countries have to establish and implement effective export control policies effective export regimes for conventional weapons most of Many developed countries already have such regimes But it's important that those all countries that are major exporters of weapons develop such export controls But it is equally important and required by the treaty that Every state develop import control regimes as well So that weapons entering any state are Adequately controlled by the government so that the government can take all appropriate measures to prevent their unlawful diversion Most of our discussion in New York in two long rounds of negotiating this treaty was about the export controls But it is crucial to emphasize That without effective import regimes as well African states will not be able to reap the full benefits of this treaty Establishing these effective import regimes is particularly crucial in those states that are currently Suffering from a drastic oversupply of weapons These import regimes Need to be as transparent as possible in order to help prevent diversion and build confidence Among the population and among partners internationally that a TT implementation is effective It's not enough to have the laws to have an import and an export control regime All states including those that already have these laws need to continuously Improve and implement effective border control and customs service both in the written law and in the actual day-to-day practice Effective border control and customs service go hand-in-hand with an effective arms trade treaty Here again the United States is extremely active in Africa and throughout the world in Aiding countries in a cooperative basis to build more effective border control and custom services My bureau alone puts about 60 million dollars a year Solely to this purpose expanding export control and border security capabilities around the world Even this is not enough States must also be prepared to Establish and implement and push forward an effective legal framework to prevent corruption First to be able to prosecute illegal arms traffickers within their borders secondly to be able to cooperate with other states in Attacking illegal arms traffickers outside of their borders and the arms trade treaty Offers tools to do that in terms of encouraging Member states states parties to share evidence to share legal procedures That if used effectively could put the black market dealers out of business and Third States must be prepared to battle corruption within their own governments Recall that one of the important sources of weapons that fuel regional conflicts in Africa are Weapons that are stolen or frequently that are sold out of the arsenals of the military or the police within those states Without a system of justice that effectively punishes those state Police or military officials who do that we will not have prevented the Continued supply of weapons and ammunitions Now again There's a lot that the United States can do Working with African states working with the European Union and others to assist in exactly these efforts Not just in the kind of legal development that we do for example through the Department of States Bureau of international law narcotics control and law enforcement But also in technical issues our Department of Justice for example can assist states in marketing Marking national weapons inventories and tracing illicit weapons in Africa alone We have assisted 24 states so far in marking the small arms that have been purchased for the military or the police This is often neglected, but it's a very necessary first step If you're going to first manage your state inventory of weapons the weapons that police and military need and Then be able to catalog and track those weapons if they are diverted from legitimate state stockpiles now This is the last main point on practical steps that can be taken It's essential that countries in Africa as well as elsewhere, but focusing today on Africa Institute and maintain effective controls over state-owned stockpiles of conventional weapons frequently These arms are not well secured in police barracks or in military basis Now properly securing State-owned conventional arms is not an obligation created by the arms trade treaty Which talks only about international transfers, but again Improvement in this area is essential if we are to realize the broader goals of the arms trade treaty And in fact, I want to give credit to several African delegations at the negotiations who focused on this issue and Tried to ensure that the ATT included a reference to national stockpile security Although the final decision was that that was not exactly within the scope of the treaty Again stockpile security is an area where the United States Offers substantial assistance to countries seeking it in two different ways and in several different programs The State Department's Bureau of Political-Military Affairs Provide supports to governments around the world to secure or and destroy old or abandoned munitions and To enhance the national management of such stockpiles Since 2001 when this program began Just in Africa, the United States Has destroyed over two hundred fifty thousand small weapons and marked 350,000 more with unique serial numbers Department of State helps programs has programs to enhance physical security at arms depots in places like the Democratic Republic of the Congo Niger Somalia, we've had such programs previously in Burundi, Switzerland, Angola And it is not only the State Department But also the Department of Defense that provides training assistance to help militaries in Africa and elsewhere Manage more securely stockpiles of weapons and ammunition There's a key concept That motivates I think even though we didn't discuss it frequently in New York The value of the armstray tree and that is transparency and as a trade regulation treaty the arms trade treaty should have the same value of Transparency that we expect when we're talking about international trade in energy or Agriculture or high technology goods and the arms trade treaty builds into it The means for countries to cooperate more closely on such transparency But transparency also has to be a light that shines Upon one of the key Sources of weapons that fuel conflicts in Africa and that is the frequently the conscious decision By African governments to supply weapons to allies who are fighting civil conflicts in a neighboring country Without an honest conversation About that aspect of The supply of weapons in African civil conflicts we can address only some aspects of the problem There does need to be a recognition by African states That this has to be put openly on the table That the source of weapons is not just illicit drug illicit arms dealers 5,000 miles away Sometimes it is another African government just across the border now We are looking forward To the entry into force of the ATT We think that it makes a beginning In addressing the kinds of problems that African states are justifiably concerned about and that it creates obligations on the rest of the world to do their part to prevent a destabilizing influx of conventional weapons into Africa and we will do our part I think here I can speak not only for the United States But for the European Union and a number of other states who take this treaty Seriously, in fact who take it seriously because we've already incorporated virtually all of its requirements into our law But we're prepared to do more Than what is in the treaty we're prepared to work cooperatively to put money and expertise and a genuine spirit of cooperation with partners throughout Africa Into an effort not just to implement the ATT But to realize its fundamental promise that of a more secure and prosperous world Particularly in Africa So thank you, and I look forward to a discussion Thank you, Mr. Countryman Raymond Thank you very much Jennifer and thanks to CSIS For inviting us to participate in what I think is a very important Meeting the discussion is relevant not just because of What the treaty does or does not state or what it does or does not imply for Africa's security? I think it's important because because it is germane to the continent long-term stability the flow of small arms and light weapons the legal trade and trafficking of these small arms light weapons have Blighted not just the lives and livelihoods of millions, but also the fortunes of so many Potentially prosperous countries across the African continent, and this is why we are pleased to be part of this discussion The Africa Center for Strategic Studies is the Department of Defense's premier Institution for Strategic Security Studies on the African continent between 2005 and 2009 the Africa Center conducted a series of regional workshops in Africa on Small arms and light weapons. So a lot of what I'll be saying here today is going to be informed by the findings and conclusions of more than 200 experts most of them African who participated in this series between 2005 and 2009 as The Assistant Secretary has rightly pointed out the ATT is an important first step. It is by no means a silver bullet What I want to do very briefly is not to go over the ground. He has already covered But I'll talk a little bit about my views on what this means for peace and security across the African continent and Then I'll share some of the challenges. I believe that need to be overcome in Africa to ensure that when this treaty is ratified and implemented it become it it it It attains its desired effect and then like all good Beltway folk. I have a group of recommendations for you my wish list if the world were level and Everything was equitable But let me start by by talking a little bit about some of the implications of this treaty for Africa. I think that For me one of the most important things is that it introduces a modicum of responsibility in the trade and transfer of small arms and light weapons as the assistant secretary pointed out It shines a light where there has always been a lot of opaqueness and it brings to the fore the importance of a collaborative effort between not just the signatories to the treaty but the industry As a whole to ensure that there is responsibility in trade of small arms and light weapons Secondly it also makes it a lot easier to enforce accountability and I'll talk a little bit about this when we talk when I discuss some of the challenges Hopefully it could help reduce the proliferation of small arms and light weapons We've talked a bit about some of the sources and this is a eight point five billion dollar Industry and there are a lot of equities there. And so being able to Being being being able to unravel all the tentacles of the small arms and light weapons Transactions actors and channels is going to require concerted effort and also collaboration among a larger group of of stakeholders The treaty itself is not going to bring peace and security It's not going to bring about peace and security across the continent for a number of reasons that I'll highlight to and the first is that Conflict valent conflict across the continent is a very complex and at times historically rooted phenomenon It's not just a matter of the availability of small arms and light weapons We're currently doing some work on water and security and researchers are tracing the effective Decimation of Lake Chad and the it's the impact of Climate change that's the mission of Lake charge Lake Chad on the political economy of the Sahel and why certain groups move in certain directions and which is why we have people like Partly why we have people like Boko Haram and Some of the instability in the Sahel so it's historical It is linked and so it's not just an issue of if we were able to get rid of the small arms and light weapons We'll have peace and security. We've also learned The painful history in recent decades that machetes could be as deadly even more deadly than small arms and light weapons And so we don't want to start this discussion from a position of delusion So if the ATT is not going in itself to bring about the sort of our peace and security, it is part of a larger puzzle We've also heard that while African countries were at the forefront of lobbying for this particular Treaty and being very involved in its deliberation etc. Etc only to have ratified to date and Fewer have even given serious thought about you know How it's going to become low and how it's going to be implemented, but there are a number of them practical issues I would like to raise I'll go through five or six very quickly and The first is in most and I would say probably all African countries We don't have a baseline of capacity and capability as far as small arms and light weapons marking tracking registering and and any form of detailing we don't have a baseline and This particular treaty is contingent upon their bill and upon the ability of a state To do to do those things So you ask the obvious question what's the starting point and How are we going to get African countries prepared to implement this treaty even if it does go through? national ratification etc The second challenge I believe that needs to be overcome is one that to which the Assistant Secretary alluded is the complicity of state actors not just in the transfer of Smaller and so white weapons, but also on the demand side and the use of proxy groups We've seen this in the Great Lakes region. We've seen it in the Sudan to see the Manor River Union so if the entities that are by international statute charged with Ensuring the responsible export and import of these small anti-light weapons are themselves complicit You would also again ask the obvious question Where is the impetus going to come from to to bring this about because as we we all know and all good Observers of politics and security in Africa know that the state is a critical part of the Com of the conflict dynamic the violent violent conflict conflict dynamic And so how do you deal with the state as a player and a factor? the third thing that needs to be addressed is the complexity of what I call conflict affected country political economies because Wands in countries across the African continent that have been affected by conflict you see not just You see not just a destruction of lives and property, but you see a selective destruction of lives and property There are groups and strata in society who wield not just Military and political power, but also economic power Why is this important? It's important because throughout the conflict and immediately after the war economy determines not just which illicit commodities like small arms and I weapons Enter or leave the country, but they also determine fuel food other commodities It is the same actors the same chains the same financing channels and so You really do have to disentangle the illicit path within the context of a political economy for you to make much progress because just trying to Address the small lamps and I weapons trade would mean that this is the same person who brings in food rice How do you address that and these are the reasons why you see a lot of dragging of feet? Because the practicalities are a lot more challenging Fourth is the issue of Capacity constraints in terms of human resources Technology skills financing that's needed to ensure that the treaty that the trade or transfer of the small arms Small arms and light weapons could be monitored in a way that's consistent with the provisions of the ATT there are a number of Regional and international both bilateral and multilateral institutions that are That stand ready to help African countries But we really do need to do a better job of coordinating these efforts so that we don't have gaps or duplicates or duplicative about to say duplicitous or Duplicative efforts that are wasteful because as we all know this issue is one that is central to the fortunes and stability of millions across the continent The fifth reason is that of Undocumented domestic stockpiles and production the assistance actually has mentioned those but You know depending on who you talk to these stockpiles either more or less are a problem and These stockpiles don't go through border checkpoints and customs. They are They are the commodities that get smuggled and traffic Over you know borders and Ungoverned spaces on God ungoverned spaces and they're and they're also the channels that State actors use to supply their proxies The sixth challenge is the Opakiness in exporting countries. I know yes. We are focusing on African countries and we need import Import the capacity as well, but you look at the small arms survey Transparency barometer and you would see that There is no exporting country that passes master across the board There are varying levels of opaqueness and this this does Make it difficult. It makes it difficult and challenging August 2013 a research entity grip Sands for the group for research and information on peace and security published a report on National reporting small arms and light weapons in Africa. Let me just share with you a few of their of their conclusions They surveyed all African countries. They found out that most of the countries About over 60 percent do not have reporting legislation. They don't have laws that require what require reporting Most of them about half do not require marking or Have any of any am arrangements for registration? Half of them claim to have tracing procedures in place, but Implementation is very weak across the board of all the countries surveyed 43 have arrangements to track imports 33 have Legislation for exports and only 24 have any legislation that covers Transhipment and at the heart of the ATT in a article 6 and 7 they are requirements for exports inputs imports and Transhipment so there's an urgent need to address these legislative gaps to ensure that the that African countries and African governments Could be better positioned not just to implement the ATT but to address this Important part of their security conundrum What are my recommendations? I think firstly we should focus on building the baseline in every country and Supporting capacity Enhancements not just human capacity, but also institutional Secondly, I think that we need a public-private partnership to help clean up the supply chain I know this sounds a little far-fetched, but a few years ago when we were discussing this as it relates to conflict minerals a lot of people said oh no the companies would not Would not want to have anything to do with this But the company is very quickly see that it is in their best interest and it's also more efficient To have a clean and transparent Supply chain so as we did with them conflict minerals I think we should get the industry involved and have a private public private partnership to help them share the some light To what goes on? Thirdly, I think that we require Muscular international diplomacy to deal with countries that we know aid a bit and sustain small-on-flight weapons trafficking and also utilize and not only Intervene directly on the help their own behalf, but utilize proxy groups in neighboring countries Fourthly, it's important to disentangle illicit arms from legitimate trade because a Lot that happens in the non formal sector is not well understood by policy Analysts we usually go into sledge hammer and we're going to get rid of everything that is illicit there are some things that are illicit like trafficking like cross-border movements of Consumer goods etc that that's the only way that they could move because there are no institutions that far away from the Capitals to facilitate trade We have to be careful as we address the ATT issue that we do not upset the apple cart and Do more harm than good? Fifthly, I think we need a coordinated action to go after Globalized networks that facilitate small-on-flight weapons transfers and illicit transfers and the associated impunity Yeah, I know we got Victor Booth, but he's just one there's many many many more and many more that we do know And I think we really we if we are serious about having a treaty that's going to have teeth and Lasting impact across the continent. We should be able to garner support for concerted action and closing as the Assistant Secretary mentioned there are a number of things outside the remit of the ATT that African countries need to be doing I need to be considering now to make an effort My worries that a number of countries will be waiting for ratification before they start thinking about acting and I think if I have a concluding thought is that The small arms and light weapons challenge that continues to blight these countries is not about the ATT. It's about Domestic security it's about regional security and it's about prospects for all African citizens So now is the time that a lot of these things that I have Listed and that's the Assistant Secretary articulated should be tackled by African governments civil society in African countries the small arms light weapons industry and All stakeholders. Thank you Thanks very much to both of you for really Really thoughtful presentations that get to some of the challenges well outside the treaty Maybe I'll ask a first question then we open up for a question and answer first to Assistant Secretary countrymen I wonder you know, this is a time when you know Unfortunately, we've seen kind of a proliferation and unraveling in a lot of fragile states It's a time when African countries have pledged to step up to their responsibilities in terms of regional security the US looking for Ways to help build capacity more engaged in that than ever And I wonder how much this kind of agenda the agenda that you laid out in terms of you know securing domestic stockpiles import regulations is a part of the conversation that we have with African states as we Engage them on security capacity building. Is it something that ambassador Brigadier at the African Union brings up Is it a is it a regular part of our conversations that our embassies have with governments and so forth? No, thanks, Jennifer. That's an excellent question and thank you dr. Gilpin for Some great ideas that I've taken good note of the The answer is so far not enough It is not sufficiently integrated into the kind of dialogue that we have Bilaterally with countries across the African continent We do have fairly intense Cooperation in the non-proliferation field generally and I should mention that the non-proliferation Portfolio of my bureau is not just conventional weapons It's very much about nuclear chemical biological weapons as well And so we have very intense non-proliferation Programs in all these fields with several countries in Africa particularly South Africa where we have well established programs of cooperation for many years We have growing Export control and border security Programs with a number of states in Africa as I mentioned not just my bureau But others in state and in Defense Department have stockpile management weapons abatement programs with a number of African countries what we haven't done is In most of these bilateral dialogues about what we can do next is To put these into the framework that I tried to lay out today And to build upon the interests of those states in the arms trade treaty To help motivate them to take extra efforts that have the most immediate payoff for Reducing the availability of weapons Reducing the level of violence in their country, so it is what we need to do But we are not doing enough of it yet Thank you and Raymond. I wanted to ask you a little bit About the African Union and the regional economic communities and what kind of leadership role might they play I imagine let's say a Peer review or a standard set. I mean the African Union can play a role in terms of setting norms and standards Perhaps some kind of peer review mechanism and if not the AU perhaps An echowas which has seen you know with the the collapse of Molly and the infusion of arms from all over the place But particularly Libya Might they kind of be a champion of this in a way to at least begin the standard setting the peer review and Maybe an index of I'll turn to you and then we'll open up Now, thank you very much. I think that's an excellent idea because we have Over 50 countries with varying levels of capacity As I mentioned earlier most of them do not even have the legislation in place to start Very few have the capacity so beginning to address it at a sub regional level make sense and Why it makes sense is because most of the sub regions already have protocols They can build on like the echo us convention the ecas convention the Nairobi protocol the Sadak protocol They're all they all exist and these are the these are instruments that they could use to actually start doing things like putting the framework for marking and tracing in place getting Database regional and national database of military and non-military Reapons in their areas of responsibility Also coordinating technical assistance because one of the things that the ATT makes clear is that where necessary technical assistance would be available and Coordinating that is usually the Achilles heel of a lot of good intentions of the continent and Being able to engage the sub the regional economic communities to do this. I think is a great idea the African Union on the other hand Has a great role to play it's a it's a Should it choose to do so and I think this is a it is a great forum that we have to encourage them to do to do so because Could dovetail very nicely with the African Union's vision of Subregional peace and security out the African peace and security architecture And so you have the building building blocks in place That what we need to do now is to breathe life into them And I think that starting with the regional economy communities is a great idea because of the protocols exist And it's a much more manageable challenge Thank you both. Let's turn for Questions now as I said, please wait for the mic and identify yourself. We have the gentleman in the far back Robert Chirada international investor I Wasn't quite clear the last question. So maybe this is a little redundant, but I wonder if For our special guest Mr. Gilpin can comment or try to estimate Where most of these arms are coming from what nation and who who is most benefiting from this in terms of bringing them in? I know that's a you know, we got a lot of countries to cover there But is there are there a couple nations that are predominant in this? Do you want to take a few at a time? Well, let's take a few Think about that think about the list that will come right up front here, and then we'll move over here Thank you. James Bridger Delac systems on this is a specific case example with the spread of private maritime security companies to deal with Somali piracy and the so-called floating armories to facilitate storage and embarking of weapons there's been a lot of Worry particularly out of India that these weapons now could easily spread into the hands of the hostile forces across the entire Indian Ocean is this something that you've heard a lot of concern coming from African governments? Is it also something that? there's been any talk at International level of regulating this beyond sort of industry self-regulation as it stands. Thank you Okay, and we'll come yes here up front Good afternoon, my name is Rosemary Seguero. I'm the president of hope for tomorrow We focus on conflicts resolution and violence prevention. Thank you so much. Mr. Secretary and mr. And dr. Raymond I come from Kenya many times conflicts and violence in Africa women have been the victims Children victims and all that happened in Africa is so annoying Despite the support from USA European Union and all over the world I just want to thank President Obama for the Initiative is doing on partnership. The partnership is the most important thing the USA Government cannot do it alone the global world cannot you need to include us as civil society and Of all the people women who are the victims this thing has been said on and on as you support There is something that is missing civil partnership private and public partnership where? Companies that tell with security security is the most important thing in Africa. We need security We are private our company can do security. We are an unprofit and a profit This is needed in Africa that partnership of private public civil society and young people who are always the victims and actors They need to be involved in from the cross route up to the upper level Otherwise, if you say only the head of state the government is not going to work Let us partner and work on this as collectively and in partnership and I think this can can make a difference So, how do we do this? How do we partner from here say a club or that's for Kenyan diaspora African diaspora and a woman concerned of other women children who are normally the victims of violence and conflicts. Thank you Thanks Should we take just one more? Thank you, I'm Rachel Stoll from Stimson I had a question which I will ask but I do want to make a comment because Dr. Gilpin mentioned the necessity for having a baseline of Capacity and there is a project that is ongoing Which is called the baseline assessment survey project, which is doing Just that which is a survey of all UN member states to identify Article by article within the ATT where states are today So that when the treaty enters into force we can actually measure if the if the treaties having an impact So there is a process there and one of the challenges is getting the right people to to fill out those surveys and particularly in Africa What we're finding is that these systems are either very small arms focused and not the larger conventional arms issue So my initial question to you is how do we engage the right people in capitals To fill out these surveys to be part of the kind of effective implementation and identify those partners But also for assistant secretary countryman kind of what's next for the US the US has signed It seems very obvious and clear that there will be 50 signatures By the one-year anniversary of the adoption of the ATT which means the conference of states parties is coming Where does the US fit in on all of that? set of questions there You're welcome to chime in on the first one which is kind of naming names If you wish, but then shall we start with you Raymond and then move to Okay. Thank you really great questions the Small arms survey annual report Lists the main exporters and importers of small light weapons Annually it also lists the key Transshipment I'm countries. I mentioned this because of the second part of your question, which is who is benefiting It's a rather convoluted supply chain For the in the small arms business which includes not just hard currency But commodity swaps at times along the way So being able to say exactly who is benefiting and how much at any point in time Requires a bit of research. I wish I can do I'll be very interested in that But I haven't seen it done as yet the main exporters are your Usual suspects Western countries Russia China, etc. But the people who actually traffic it along the Chain until it gets to the militia or it gets to the government That's a shadowy world that you know We need to take down another Victor Booth to find out, you know, what another looks like but what I could say is that There's a lot of people benefiting from it It's 8.5 billion in small-arm sales, but the degree of beneficiation along the chain I think increases that amount exponentially when you think about service Service payments, etc. I think it says there's a lot of people who have Significant equity and so the import and that's why I think it's important for industry to all be part of this Because it makes it easier for industry to be efficient if we have a predictable and open supply chain the second question about MSS and private security and firms You know that has been that you know even before the Assets were deployed. There was a significant discussion about what does this mean in terms of proliferation? We have and we have we the Africa Center have conducted a number of maritime safety and security Seminoles in West Africa Horn of Africa The issue does come up, but people are a lot more worried about what's going to happen to the assets that bequeathed to national governments rather than those Held by the PMC's because the PM's the sorry the private military companies have a more rigorous accountability Arrangements than do the governments and so that's We worry a lot more about what the government who have received Small arms and I weapons of other pirates and the equipment what they how that's going to be utilized Take the Niger Delta for instance a lot more than the PMC is not to say the PMC's are not worrisome But relatively speaking it's you know what the governments I'm doing Rachel I was You know I was in a rush. I should have I would should have would have Mentioned on the Stimson initiative It is it is it's it is ongoing. I think that we we really do need to have one that focuses a lot more on the continent because If you look at this starting compare the starting point of the average African country in this regard with You know any other developed developing part of the world the last four decades in Africa have seen state involvement in violent conflict to an extent that Even there's no way to tell who has what in terms of small arms and like weapons So we need we need a lot more focus on on on African countries And I think that there are two if I were to give two tips in terms of How do you get them to? Fill out the forms The first has to be they need to be able to see their self-interest in this they need to understand And that's where the ladies talk the ladies intervention about the importance of getting civil society involved sensitizing the groups people have to recognize that this is not just an internal security challenge it's a national security challenge and With that everybody has to be involved with so once the constate once it becomes parts of Election campaigns it's a lot easier for them to do it and the second is persistence It's not going to be easy But you just you have to be persistent the grip report, which I'm sure you you you you you have seen Utilize a lot of in country. I think they visited 11 countries right and visited the utilize a lot of In-country groups that made it easier for some of the for some of this Quote-unquote sensitive information to be divulged, but those are the two things that I would say Okay, let me try these same four questions, but different order and First the question about private security companies that are protecting against piracy I have not heard before today anyone express a concern about Relatively small number of weapons that are used to secure ships as they go through Around the Horn of Africa. I've not heard any countries express a concern about that diversion not saying it's impossible, but haven't heard it Question where do the arms come from? I'm not going to give you a straight answer for two reasons One is I'm not a sufficient expert To go on the record as being quoted as US government accuses this country in this country in this guy I'm just not going to do that But I will say that There are so many different patterns that you can't make a generalization about Africa on this issue as indeed on many other issues a pattern in Somalia which involved Guns originating from Eastern Europe going through Yemen and the traditional Yemen Somali connection is one pattern the kind of pattern of Blood minerals or gems in certain places in West Africa drew a substantially different pattern of money acquisition money outflow weapons in flow and then there are Conflicts such as those in the Great Lakes where clearly a major source of Guns for contending forces are directly from neighboring governments These are very different patterns and they need to be analyzed one by one And I think an academic or a non-governmental organization Could give you a better answer than a US government official on any of these things Rose Mary appreciate the words on civil society. I Sometimes think about if I were from Kenya or from Namibia or from Ghana Which civil society group would I like to be in because there are so many issues of good government of reform? Of equality that have to be dealt with in any of those countries. I expect that lobbying For better laws about import of weapons is probably not the most popular NGO in any African country today But it is still essential for civil society to help governments make the right decisions It was civil society that motivated a lot of governments educating them About the treaty and the realities of arms trade that led to the political impetus for this treaty at the United Nations It was NGOs in this country that did the same and reached 50% of the population It is I think essential in Africa as well and important For NGOs from other countries to assist sisters and brothers in Africa in helping to build that kind of constituency Not necessarily in a dedicated NGO But in getting the kind of support from civil society that will help Governments recognize their own responsibility for dealing with these issues What's next through the United States well lots of things first I don't know When it will be feasible to submit the arms trade treaty or any other treaty for ratification to the Senate The I think there needs to be a focus on beginning an actual discussion to date. There has not been a discussion There are groups that opposed the arms trade treaty before the first word was negotiated And no version of a treaty would ever have won anything except their stern opposition They have significant support in the US Senate. That's a reality. There's nothing sinister about it That is simply the political reality the different political reality today From just to betray my age from the kind of United States I grew up with is there was a time when people who disagreed would discuss things with each other Doesn't happen anymore our attempts to speak To senators About the realities of the treaty It's tough to get an audience again. They're very busy. I don't blame them Those organizations that are vehemently opposed are simply afraid to discuss this Other than in front of an audience that they have handpicked So I don't know if we'll ever get an actual discussion of the kind that your democracy textbooks Talk about I think we'll get the kind of debate that reflects the kind of debate we have on most issues today Despite that discouraging prognosis will continue to Speak frankly and seek To talk honestly with anybody who's got an open mind And just one word on the civil society component a big element would be is an investigative media Capacity which you know in South Africa and other places have done a great deal on breaking some of the big arms trade Scandals and so forth just a thought Jennifer and I'm Connie Well, thank you very much to the panel. I'm Jennifer Macby's Connected to CSIS. So I was wondering if you could explain I understand why the US is not going to ratify soon anyway But what about the other countries? You said only two had ratified So I wondered if you could explain why not more and how many have signed the treaty. Thank you To in Africa, right? Yeah And then Connie Thank You Connie Freeman. I'm with Syracuse University. I Thoroughly enjoyed the presentation and feel like I learned quite a lot today I was intrigued dr. Gilpin with your mentioning Public-private partnerships to work on this issue Because I think that many governments have a self-interest in not working on it And then we need to find some other channels for it and you mentioned that with conflict minerals Companies in the private sector had been more amenable than some people had anticipated And I'm just wondering if you can expand on that a little bit. Thank you Hi, good afternoon. My name is Allison Pitluck and I'm with the control arms coalition I just wanted to I guess without pre-empting any response from the panel Get back to the question of the only two ratifications among African countries my coalition's following the ratification process very closely It's only been about 10 months since the treaty is open for signature So it's pretty astonishing that 31 governments have already managed to ratify in that time and that we might even see 50 Before we reach a year. I know that many African governments are working hard To get the ratification process accomplished But as I was mentioned earlier, there are a lot of legislative gaps that are Preventing this from moving as quickly as we would like and we want it to be done and as proper a manner as possible Great. Thank you for that Great excellent point and then we'll go to the gentleman here and come back to the panel. Hi, I'm Gary Sargent Treadstone light. I'm a retired army special forces guy spent some time in Africa in the 90s my question really is is Mill-to-mill and it's more of a comment if I could get a comment since I got the NDU dean one of the deans here Comment on the mill-to-mill Interface between our country and most of the African countries. Is that a helpful piece not helpful? And do you see an increase in that now that we're Extracting ourselves out of the mid-east The total number of states in the world And I've given up trying to explain our ratification process to anyone else So I'm not going to try to explain other people's or why it's slow The I Agree with the comments about press investigative media It's what I mean when I say there needs to be transparency or dr. Gilpin means when he says there needs to be less opacity in international transactions mill-to-mill Connections again it is you pretty much have to go country by country. There are countries With whom the United States has a long military relationship Countries in Africa that have effective civilian control of government and as a consequence are building Truly professional militaries and then there are gradations below that And our relationship varies with each and is crucially dependent upon The level of civilian versus military control in those governments But in general those states with whom we are able to sustain a strong relationship Between mill from military to military over the years and have I think obtained some of the benefits Of what we can offer in terms of professionalization of the military Including stockpile management fighting corruption, etc So I think that's my only comment on a good point Yeah, thank you Not much to add on that just to probably try to Get at the second part of your question, which was do we anticipate an increase in African mill-to-mill as we draw down elsewhere? I think that's in the realm of hope We hope that there is and because as you know that we have a strategic pivot towards the east and so I think a lot of the Slack so to speak might look east, but we're hoping that a significant proportion of it comes Africa's way On the public-private partnerships It was a really really really long road because there were a number of different types of companies that were involved electronics manufacturing etc and People thought that because of the complexity of the supply chain will be difficult It has been difficult, but because the companies have worked together We now have Intel for instance Announcing that it could verify that it has Conflict free supply chain for the specified minerals We have Apple Announcing that for its processors it could also verify a number of other Other companies are you know not too far behind and those are significant efforts because verifying the supply chain for something like tungsten is Costly it's cumbersome, but they did it because you know all parties saw self-interest in predictable open and Transparent transaction environment and my hope is that since we know that the governments will be reluctant because they have Equities in conflict in some instances if we have the companies on board as well it kind of You know makes it less threatening to them. It's not so much of an existential Us versus them it is we're all in this together, and I think that the companies would be able to You know Do what they did in the conflict mineral issues? I move forward Regardless of what the government's are doing and make progress. So that's what I'm hoping will be able to do through a proper public private partnership in this particular space Hi there, I'm Annie Leonard I'm an intern for an interested California based lawyer and I was wondering The arms trade treaty has been accused of ambiguity and I was wondering if you guys believe the treaty is ambiguous and Why you feel it was accepted in the form that's drawn such complaints and also I know you've mentioned a lack of treaty related discussion in the Senate But I was wondering if you feel if it's in the best interest of the Senate to ratify a treaty that's been accused of ambiguity Hi John Doyle a defense writer and editor of the 4g war blog I wanted to ask about the role of organized crime possibly in arms trafficking I know I know or at least I've been told by ATF people that it's not a big issue yet in Africa, but given the rise of Africa being used by Latin American cartels as a transnational shipping point Whether the violence that we've seen south of the border is is going to flow in that direction as well and What your thoughts are on that? I'm Denzel. I'm from South Africa My question is related to that it's like When the new government came in power there, there was over 2,000 caches there. I don't think they ever lifted them and When when they lift in the caches, that's all the weapon systems they use And the the weapon system runs with a drug system and then there's no people with jobs So you have to integrate all those systems. You can't just go. Hey, what's the arms problem? Thank you Sure I'm just very very quickly. I will not be able to do to just to do justice to the ambiguity question I think all treaties have Since they're full of legalese, they are by definition slightly The language is a loose because you want to cover a multitude of sins but there are parts of the parts of the Treaty particularly those that are requiring countries to assess You know assess the efficacy of Export or internal controls and as as to their Impact on on the mining peace and security That's very vague language because how could you assess that this grenade that's going from here to there? It's going to impact peace and security. There's many leaps of logic and faith before you get there So it's loose language. It's also loose language in the sense of you know, how you Measure the impact of diversion. There's loose language in reporting and publishing But it Republic reporting and publishing requirements I don't think that that detracts from the strengths of the treaty itself I just think that there are a number of Areas that probably need to be fine tuned as the countries ratify and implement domestically, but I think the treaty itself is sufficiently broad to allow a number of Parliaments and houses of and legislative bodies including ours to find common ground The organized crime issue is becoming problematic across the African continent We are seeing an increase in Organized crime activity. We're seeing an increase in some countries of what I would call state capture Where organized crime groups actually control the politics if you take a look at? political political Political parties and elections in Africa you would see parties that come out of nowhere all of a sudden flush with money You see candidates Who had nothing two years ago all of a sudden having huge billboards all over the place? You know you have to ask you have you have to ask the obvious questions and so not only in terms of the Violent crime and violence and violent conflict, but also state capture which itself becomes problematic because those regimes Then themselves become party to not just violent and organized crime for the perpetration of violence and also the Facilitation of the flow of not just narcotics, but small arms and light weapons and the gentleman from South Africa You're absolutely right what we have Here is a collectively reinforcing problem. You can't just take one you really have to have 35,000 foot view of the totality and see how you exercise the leverage that you do have to Bring into effect first order second order effects over time So you're absolutely right and I completely agree with you Thanks, the last two questions are very good ones, but I don't think I can add to what dr. Gilpin has said Ambiguity a couple of points first I would never never Advise any politician or any attorney for that matter to say or do anything ambiguous Secondly We want to measure ambiguity against what? against other treaties against United States legislation Against the Handbook of US export regulations, which is how thick help me out here may get this big It is not And is not intended to be legislation On the points that matter and that should matter I submit to legislators in the United States It is absolutely unambiguous the responsibility for writing the laws and regulations to implement this treaty belong to national states national legislators We've we're already implementing the treaty There is not a single piece of legislation required For the United States to be able to say We are now in compliance with the arms trade treaty. We're doing it. We lead the world in it We did it first. We think it's a damn good thing for other states to do too And we don't have to change any laws on that point the treaty is unambiguous If we think it's a good thing for the United States to do Do we think it's a good thing for other countries to do and So far the answer from those who don't like it or who make the ambiguity argument when it suits them is That we don't give a damn if other countries have standards We don't care Whether American industry competes on a more equal playing field We have no opinion as To whether other states ought to be held to the same standards and the same criticism as the United States I'm happy to be shown a single point in this treaty Where the ambiguity Causes a problem for the United States Will it cause an argument a debate in another country when their legislature writes a law to Implement the treaty probably Ambiguity might be an issue there But we already know what our policy is the Congress said it 50 years ago and has fine-tuned it constantly Since there's no ambiguity in US law and policy and no amount of ambiguity in a treaty which is by its very definition like other treaties ambiguous can change the fact that the US knows what it's doing and I don't mean the US administration. I mean the US Congress that wrote the laws the administration enforces Note to end on and and not much ambiguity in our Constitution Listen, I want to thank you both for I certainly like Connie I've learned a lot in this and I think that's always a signal of a really fruitful conversation for me at least and I want to thank you assistant secretary and dr. Gilpin for really being with us and Thrashing through these issues Thank you