 Hello and welcome to NewsClick. Today we are going to discuss this phase of elections, mapping the elections with Seema Mustafa. Seema, this time of course we have the 40 seats going to elections in Tamil Nadu. This is one state which is going to see only one round in elections. Of course there are a few more but this one is a big one, 39 seats. We start with the Kanimori raids which have taken place yesterday. Again raids, IT raids just before the elections? Absolutely. I mean they just did it a while ago. They've done like any number of raids I think in these elections. They have been 11 such raids before the Kanimori one. And of course they have included Kabana, they've included figures in TDP, they've included figures. They've been quite secular except the BJP shall we say and its allies. Otherwise it has been quite secular. Everybody has been targeted except the left. But it is a stupid politics and particularly for a state like Tamil Nadu where the awareness is more, the education is more. And where the people are going to take, I mean sitting here we don't have yet the field reports, but one can take it for granted that they're going to actually be really angry with us. And she's going to get and the DMK is going to get some bit of a sympathy vote on this. Because they don't like the central intrusion. And Tamil Nadu is one of the few states which is very, very possessive about its federalism and its autonomy within the structure. And also the timing. Yes, absolutely. It's cruel. If the IT department thinks Kanimori has been evading taxes. Okay, right. By all means you're not saying don't. You had five years. Exactly. One day before the elections. Just one day before. Yes, it shows a desperate PJP. It shows a certain crudeness of approach. It shows a certain thinking where only by intimidation you feel comfortable. So that's what you're trying to do to an opponent who's obviously whose graph is on the rise. The DMK is expected to do far better. I mean considering you didn't do much at all last election. But maybe you know the whole tide seems to be turning in favor of Stalin and his party. Before we go to the DMK and the Tamil Nadu elections. Let's also talk about the election commission. Election commission has told the IT department that you have to be neutral before during this election's electoral phase shall be saved. And it had also said take permission from us, inform us before you do the raids. The IT department in its reply did not talk about giving intimation to the election commission. They kept completely silent on it. And more or less quite dismissively wrote to the election commission that essentially saying that what you're saying is nonsense. See this is a message that the election commission sends out. I mean you know at the stations time it went a little wonky and a little weird and a bit authoritarian. There is a message that every election commissioner has to send out that I'm strong. I'm independent and I am going to take action regardless. Unfortunately the election commission this time is not being able to send out that message. Simply because on all issues a verdict or a ruling from it is literally being dragged from by the opposition or by people who have complained that what are you doing. On the issue of the four leaders who have been now given some shall we say self-punishment even though it may not be a very major one. That you are making communal statements. No and it's strange. I mean it was all started with Yogi because he was the first I think from this whole thing. Well it could be argued all the time. But you finally why aren't you just doing it case by case. Why do you feel as the election commission that you are seeking some kind of refuge in numbers where you are some of the BJP and some of the opposition. They went to court saying we are toothless when Gogoi the chief justice said if you are toothless can we have the chief election commissioner coming and telling us this. And then the action comes and again Gogoi has made that quip the chief justice has made that quip. You seem to have suddenly discovered some tooth. Yes yes yes yes yes. The point is there is 324 of the act which has powers given to the election commission which is what station utilized where there is no other law barring their action. They love to take action. Absolutely. And all the action commission has used that provision for taking action. And you know even in times when you had a weak election commissioner I don't want to think he still managed not to be as partisan and still managed to give out some signals that okay I am treating everyone with a equal hand. Somehow there is a dip in that trust and confidence and when that happens then obviously IET department is going to ignore the body which should be right on top of these elections. And of course the other major issue the election commission has yet to respond. The use of the army and the forces the Serves Javan's in election year in which the prime minister has been openly doing. Yes. He has been asking what in the name of the army. I mean you had generals and veterans write about it. You have them having they've written columns on it. They have written a letter to the president of India saying that do not allow this politicization. And even so you know they are being targeted. They are being named. And now you're going to tell us that senior military officials who have presided over I mean who have been part of the so-called defense of the nation are suddenly now traitors. Including the surgical strike. Yes. You know I would also like to draw your attention to another incident. If you remember the BSF Javan who protested against the kind of rations that were given was sacked. Okay. He's now standing for elections. In testing in Varanasi. Varanasi is the prime minister. Yes. And about 1000 Javan's have or ex-Javan's have actually given him support have come out in Varanasi to vote. Of course. It's symbolic. We know that. But the point is here are the Javan's actually on the ground. Who are the ones also who have laid down their lives in Phulwama. No. And this is what the treatment to them has been. And I also like you to think about what has already come. The CISF. There was no even pretence of training against these kind of attacks. See in the military what is happening is very clear. You have had professional people of integrity who would never been really in politics. You never heard of them before. Many of them you are hearing of now except in their professional capacity. There is a fight now to preserve the true professionalism of the military as against those in government and officials and military officers who are actually taking a partisan and a biased position. So if you are with us you are a nationalist military and if you are not then what happens? You are a traitorous military. You know it's also interesting. You are messing around with one institution that is so important. I mean you messed around with all institutions. But this is particularly important because it's also an armed institution. Absolutely. So this is really at the end of it. And you can't divide it and you can't make a huge section of military men and personnel feel that we are not recognized simply because we want to be professional and don't want to be part of any political structure. Coming back to our topic of the elections, the Tabil Nad elections today. That you know last time it was an AI-ADMK sweep that 37 seats out of 39. Once it going to BJP this time the AI-ADMK and BJP are in alliance but there is no gender. Do you expect that AI-ADMK would become really a small force because a major section of the AI-ADMK seems to have shifted to other groups? Yes. Yes, it seems like that. And the reports that are coming out from Tamil Nadu is definitely showing a major tilt towards DMK and some of the other groups. As you're talking about Stalin's ascendancy in Tamil Nadu. Yes. And I think what Karuna and I did was a very clever thing. He knew that you know the legacy is so strong is that it would be very difficult to bring in Stalin right to the end. So he had anointed him a long time before. And today in these elections you can see that Stalin has actually come into his own. He is the accepted leader now of the DMK. He's calling the shots. He's showing a certain independence in decision making that was not always as visible as say a few years ago. So this is a major plus and he is accepted by the DMK carders. So I think we're going to have some fun in Tamil Nadu. And the ADMK carder does not seem to have accepted those who are now running the ADMK. And I met somebody from ADMK who said well not this time but you know one day Shachikalla will rule. So you know maybe she will when she comes out she'll get all that sympathy factor and maybe she will in some elections. But it does seem that this state at least is going completely against the BJP alliance which is in this case the BJP and ADMK. I think most of the South is like that except for Karnataka where the BJP is alive and trying very hard for a seat or so in Kerala. But there's a seat here and a seat there. But somehow you get the feeling that the South disclosed its doors to what it sees as this very very essentially North Indian Hindi speaking cow belt party. That's true. The BJP has probably not struck any resonance. It's not in Telangana. It's not in Andhra Pradesh. Except in Karnataka. And also the fact of course that some of these parties who are not identified with BJP of course are keeping their options open post elections. But at least in the election at the moment BJP somehow is the kiss of death in these states looks like it. I mean all together yeah 46. Maharashtra is now the biggest state after UP. It's bigger than Bihar. This state makes a huge difference. Last elections the Shiv Sena and the BJP had 36 seats and the INC and the Congress and the NCP Sharad Pawar had 12. Do you think the figures are going to be broadly similar this time? Change. Yes. The reports again the Congress itself is thinking of 12 to 18 seats. The outer limit upper limit is 18 which I don't see really at this moment. But you know Maharashtra is interesting because it's got a lot of things happening this time. Last few years you had the Shiv Sena fighting the BJP right. And then last moment Uddhav Thakure came into alliance with the BJP. But the carders who have been used to this vitriol against the BJP and the BJP carders who have been smarting under this attack are not working well in several constituencies. So you know you had a situation I think Aurangabad our reporter was telling us that the people there are saying we will not vote BJP. We will not vote for the Shiv Sena even we might vote for an Uvesi candidate but we will not vote for the Shiv Sena. So there's that kind of anger even though the seats have been allocated. So there is that division which they have not really been able to mend on the ground because there's been an amazing level of bitterness. I mean if you remember that Uddhav Thakure's attack on Modi was more vicious than the attack from the opposition at times. We put it stronger not vicious but anyway leaving that out. But of course as we know the NCP, the Congress also have their own divisions and they have also supposedly put up candidates who are not that strong. They don't have candidates. Candidates better selection. Apparently they could have found better ones but irrespective of that. But also the fact that the smaller parties, small there are different parties over there some seat adjustment with the left could have been possible with the peasant and workers party over there. Then also other small parties. But it's interesting it's interesting the Congress is almost opted out. And from what we hear the Raul Gandhi had several meetings with Sharap Bavadi NCP chief who's the old man who's not contesting these elections because of supposedly family accommodating various members of his family. But the other reason is that he's basically now in charge of the election both for the Congress and for the NCP. So he's the guy who's setting it out. He's the master strategist in his strategy always the Shiv Sena has played a role. So this time it's not Uddar Thakure but it's the MNS Raj Thakure. And he is working very closely with Raj Thakure in these elections to help some of the key candidates win. So it's interesting. And then on the other side you have this little grouping of Ovesi and Prakash Ambedkar. Prakash Ambedkar and Ovesi both too opportunist basically seen as BJP acolytes. No Prakash Ambedkar has had much more. They are seen to be splitters but it could be argued. Ovesi has a very mixed record. In fact friends in Hyderabad would say he's always been splitting in order to help the right, the BJP. Always. But Prakash Ambedkar has had a rather shall we say very different political strategy. Yes. So that's why it's very interesting. Why did he suddenly discard all that and go with Ovesi? That is one. But the second part of it was the Congress in its election shall we say tactics. Unwilling to accommodate people like Prakash Ambedkar and as I said other groups. It's not the only one. The other groups over there who also they don't seem to have finally accommodated. Well then if that's the reason then it's a good. I mean you know then it's an understandable reason and sort of sets him off the hook. Because right now the campaign one hears is that he's also sort of working closely with the BJP and I hope it isn't true. Because he's had a politics in the past like you said. Not only that Tel-Tumbri is his brother-in-law. Yes. Okay so unless you say he's been cowed into submission I wouldn't really think that is a major reason. I don't think he would be. Exactly. So I don't think that would be a major reason. But I do feel that if we take what the Congress has done in the what we discussed in UP what is discussed in different places. Absolutely. Absolutely. This is also a strategy of the Congress not to really give space to smaller regional parties. And what we are discussing on UP that in that sense the BJP strategy of leaving seats for the smaller parties has paid off for BJP. Relative to what the Congress has done this time. Fortunately, fortunately in the states that matter the local regional parties have been able to stitch up alliances. You know. Where they are strong. Wherever they are strong. Where they are. Maharashtra is where the Congress is strong. Exactly. And wherever the Congress is strong whether it's Rajasthan whether it's Maharashtra or Madhya Pradesh where it's you know the main party where there is no regional party really stronger than it. It's not. It's almost seems to be giving up the election in Gujarat. You know whatever the momentum was before the Assembly election last time has completely disappeared. One is not even hearing about this guy. Yes. About this party. Yes. The Congress seems to be more on the backward movements of reason which are not clear. Coming back to again election alliances. If the BSP had been an ally with the Congress in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. We have shown that one time if you remember the discussion we had. They would have got 10 to 15 additional seats. The Congress and these parties. Yes. They will not get any seats without Congress. Obviously Mahavati doesn't get any seat in Rajasthan. But if they come together they make a difference of 10 to 15 seats. For me you know in the whole process of coalition there's a message. There's a very very strong message from coalitions of federalism. Which is very much in the character of the Constitution. So sometimes you might get those 5 seats or 10 seats extra. You might not get them. You might get just an increased vote share. But the message, the political message that you're sending out is very very important in today's times. When there's this authoritarianism, where we talk of one party or two parties. Where the federal parties are feeling squeezed. Where there is that total attack as we just discussed with IT raids on the regional parties. As well. As well. So I think the whole message of stitching together coalitions would have been very very important in a post election scenario in 2019. Unfortunately the Congress has in a very deliberate strategy given that. Thank you very much Siba for mapping the elections with us. Hope to continue this till the elections are over. This is all the time we have for Newsclick today. Do keep watching Newsclick.