 Welcome traders, this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Manley, we're going to get started here in just another 10 or 20 seconds. Okay, that is a clock UK time, so we will get this session underway. Before we jump into today's presentation, I always want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. I'm most pertinent for today's discussion of the fact that the views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine, they're not indicative or representative of those held by Ticknell UK, or Ticknell Europe Limited. For those of you who are here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself after I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting club left with some colleagues went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup, focused on C-Suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially I had front row seats the dot com bubble witnessing people make and lose a fortune in markets sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital play with and some time on my hands I started day trading the S&P 500, or probably more appropriately at that stage day gambling. After I racked up some pretty solid gains, however, as is often the case, my beginner's luck ran out and I essentially began to average down into losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately taking a six figure hit to my personal capital. So this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months was a time during which I had not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality, but one of which are underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game, and probably most importantly of all I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal orientation individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process oriented. That means I have to stop focusing on what I can make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and you have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game, in which you're simply playing the probabilities. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know my focus on excellence and execution. Mae Edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable on your return since 2008 since 2013. I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, again delivering annual positive returns since 2010. I've also mentored hundreds of private traders of all experienced levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm a resident market expert exclusively providing market trade analysis to tick mill clients. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers for the trading day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos for trades that I'm tracking in the market as the trading day progresses. I also share through the tick mill trading view account and the tick mill market expert blog. I also run tick mills e-mini strategy Facebook group where I post a daily trade plan outlining my pre-market thoughts for the New York cash trading session for the S&P 500. I give my bias for the trading day ahead and specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. My friends have delivered post a 6000 points of profit since we launched a group in April 2021. Second tick mill strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. The tick mill futures telegram group is a real-time environment where on a daily basis I share in-depth insights analysis and real-time trades. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of the New York cash trading session. Traders can essentially see in real time how I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets. And most importantly, those mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. Okay, so that gives you a sense of where it is I'm coming from. Let's jump into the charts. And as always, if you have any questions, just drop them into the chat box and I'll come back at the end of my presentation and answer any questions that are there. Equally, if there's an instrument you would like me to take a look at that I don't cover in my deck here, then you can also drop that into the chat box and I will give you a view on that at the end of the presentation. So I started the S&P 500. As we talked about last week, we were looking for this test of the weekly trend line resistance, which we traded into or just shy of. We have seen quite a pronounced reversal at this stage. So I'm viewing this move currently on the four hour timeframe as impulsive, and I'm tracking now any pullback equal in scale to the initial pullback that we saw here from the swing low into the 409 to the 4086. If we hold the current lows, that would take us back up into the 3990s. From there, I'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns. We've also got this trend channel resistance in play now. And I'll be looking for another leg to the downside. So into that 48, sorry, 3980s, 3990s, watch for bearish reversal patterns, be engaging on the short side, toggling move down into the 3880s as the next downside objective at this stage. We'd really need to see a close back through this trend channel resistance to suggest this correction is potentially complete. And then we'll be toggling the move back up into the 4050s as the next upside objective. Moving to the NASDAQ. Similar scenario here, we are looking for any pullback into this trend channel resistance, 11,690s, watch for bearish reversal patterns, and we're looking for another leg to the downside. I'm looking for a five equals one setup. So depending upon where we bottom here, if we hold these current lows, any move up into that 11,700 zone, we'll watch for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side. That would give us a move down to test daily and weekly projected range support into the 11,300 area. Similarly with the S&P, we'd really need to see a close back through this channel to suggest this correction is potentially complete. Moving to the Dow Jones similar setup here. So I'm looking for any pullback now into the trend channel resistance 34,000 as bearish reversal patterns in this area to engage on the short side and using that five equals one measurement. So a little bit shorter than that. There we go. So any pullback in that trend channel resistance at 34,000, we watched for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side, a target to the downside becomes 33,200. Moving to the DAX. Tracking a corrective move here in the DAX, we were looking, I was looking last week for for another leg higher. Looking for us ultimately to hold this trend channel resistance, we didn't get any reaction there, stole the down. So now what I'm looking for is a three way of correction to develop. And ultimately any move back into test the 14,460s. We want to see bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side. Just moving to the daily chart here and I'm going to blow this up so you can. It's a little bit clearer with respect to what I'm talking about. So on the daily time frame here, we can see that we have a pretty clear wave cycle developing here. I'm going to suggest that we currently have a wave three and interim wave three high in place. And what we're looking for now is a way for pullback. Now, what I use as an initial target for the way for low is an equality objective or a symmetry swing versus our wave to corrective legs. So that would actually give us a target here 13,900, which coincides with these prior highs. So I'm looking for any pullback now in the DAX into 13,900, especially if we get that pullback occurring post the FMC meeting next week. I watch for bullish reversal patterns here to engage on the long side looking for that move up into 14,700. Let's move back to the multi chart view. So the decay also in a corrective phase now. So I'm looking for a quality objective versus the swing structure here when I talk about equality. What I mean is equal legs in terms of market at market price movements. So that gives us 26,975. That also coincides here with the trend channel support and the high volume note on the daily chart. So I've been watching for bullish reversal patterns in that area to engage once again on the long side, looking for a move at least back up into retest prior cycle highs 28,519, and then on to trend channel resistance just below 29,000. At this stage will take a loss on a closing basis of that trend channel support. Yes, we have a more meaningful high in place. And then we can think about moving lower once again. But for now, the set up and structure looks constructed to me and so I'm looking for further upside nifty has tested into our support zone. And so what I'm looking for now is any blows back through 18,790 or engage on the long side minimum upside objective is five equals one, which gives us 19,200 at this stage again. To suggest a more meaningful highs in place we need to see a close through the 18,600 area, and that would have us back down testing support to 18,120. Moving to the bond market TLT on a tear last week we were looking for a 108 test the gap through there. And what I'm now looking for with TLT is a wave three high to develop just below 111. I'm using the measurement of wave one a 3.618 extension, which you will often find caps that those wave three highs. I'm looking for that level that just below the 111 want to obviously see momentum divergence maintained so price making new high but our momentum study failing to confirm that. And then that should set up a three wave corrective move something similar in scope and scale to our wave to low for our wave for would have us back into 105 60s from there. I want to watch for bullish reversal patterns to reengage on the long side minimum five equals one objective takes us up to 112. And then that should I complete the first leg of a bigger corrective phase developing in the bond markets. Moving to the forex space and we have a dollar index. A nice, nice channel trading opportunity here so I'm looking now for the dollar to any move into this high volume know the trend channel resistance 106 20s. I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side. As we talked about last week I'm ultimately looking for a test of this 102 70s, which is weekly trend line support in the midpoint of the broader channel that we've been trading in for the dollar index so any move into here then I'm looking for a more pronounced corrective move to that up so we look for 106 20s 106 30s bearish reversal patterns there to take us down into our target zone 102 80s 102 60 there is the weekly projected range support. And the euro obviously trading pretty much inverse to the dollar index so looking for one more push higher here in terms of the euro up into the resistance zone here 106 30s. I've been watching for the momentum divergence to be maintained you see we have pretty much have triple divergence there on to that next time I watch with bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side. Toxing a move down to test support at 103 60s, and then from there we'll see it buys again a step back in once again. So we're looking for that test of 106 30 to give us a setup bearish reversal patterns momentum divergence maintained so ideally what I've been looking for is momentum to do something like this. Hold this area and roll over, and then we get a bearish rejection at that 106 30s and initial target to the downside 103 60s to sterling holding our trend channel support so close now back through the 122 30s sets up that move to target 124 80s 124 90s. And from there I've been looking for a more sustained corrective moves takes back into trench on support at the 119 here you can see all clearly on the daily timeframe. But initially we are looking for this push towards 125 and then similar to the euro and obviously trading the inverse to the dollar index we're looking for this momentum divergence to be maintained. Hold this area which bearish reversal patterns to play for another correction to the downside. And like I say thinking about something back into that daily trend line support, just below 119 will be the target there. We're looking to the dollar yen. Looking for this trend channel play here, move for a test of 138 60s bearish reversal patterns from there and we are looking for another leg to the downside to target just above 132 in terms of in terms of the dollar yen. We're looking for a more complex, more slightly more complex pattern so we could get a ABC here internally and then get the push up into our resistance zone 138 30s, but set up remains the same looking for rejection here from this trend channel resistance and giving us that downside objective into the 130 tunes. Similarly, if we take out this trend channel support here. And that would be the first clue as to the fact that we're not going to test the the primary trend line resistance, and we're likely to roll over and head straight to the target zone at 132 Swissie. Similar scenario to the dollar index here what I'm looking for is a test now into trend channel resistance at the 95 level. I want to see if a rejection on the alley or four hour timeframe to engage on the short side, and I'm looking for a test down there into projected trend channel support down to the 90 just above the 92 level. Euro yen. I want to test up into trend channel resistance here at the, just below 145 from there and watching for bearish reversal patterns now we still do have we still have an open target here on the downside at 140 20, but what I would also be watching is any pull back into the midpoint of this channel that finds support talking about four hour hourly rejection of this zone. I would actually look to engage on the long side looking for a retest of our resistance there at 146 over four. The also yen, see what we got here with the also yen. I'm looking now for a test of the security objective versus the swing low here at 91 40s. I'm looking for various reversal patterns at 92 60s to engage on the short side, looking for a test down into trend channel support and the monthly projected range resistance weekly projected range resistance 1930s. And we've also got this weekly trend line support coming in just below the 90 level. That's going to be a key test here for the Aussie and and also we think about the Aussie and is a as a risk proxy. If we hold this level and we can bounce, then that could set up the, the much, much hoped for Santa Claus rally in terms of risk sentiments in general. Move to the Antipodeans monitor currencies dollar CAD putting a rejection here so I'm looking to see the dollar CAD can hold support into daily projected range support 135 60s if we can. We have an equality objective just below 138 and those prior cycle highs there so that's going to be the test zone. We can hold support 135 60s we don't hold sport there I'm looking for move down into trend channel support and the high volume mode 134 40s on the downside. The Aussie held trend channel support again. So we are looking now for price to extend to the upside we have the target here at 60 well just below the 69 handle if we can extend we look for trend channel resistance at 69 20s. We have a high volume mode there on the weekly timeframe. And then once we test into that area, I'd be anticipating we get a more sustained corrective pullback in terms of the Aussie something similar in scope and scale to the first server is thinking about this is the way to correction. May blow this up and draw it into so you can see exactly what I'm talking about. So if we're going back. So I'd be looking for this type of corrective move three way pattern so it can see his training back down into the 66 40s for once again trying to advance to the upside. Moving to the key way. I'm going to use to track nicely to the top side we're looking now the next area of resistance in the key way is going to be this 64 70s. If we hold this trend channel resistance still scope that we do a three way corrective move before advancing into that target zone, but if we trade directly to it, I'd be watching for bearish reversal patterns there off this trend channel resistance for this more sustained corrective move before the next leg to the upside and I think I mentioned last week the potential for the developments here of inverse and inverse and shoulder scenario so we can get up into here, then we'd look for this type of price action. So that's testing into just ahead of that 60 level before looking for our next leg to the upside goals. Looking for a three wave corrective move to develop here if we if we can hold if we can hold the current swing high, which would have us back down into the 1744 area and they're looking to engage on the long side again. So that's testing to 1850 here, and you can see again, my thinking is that we probably if we retest these highs from current levels. Watch for failure there when I'm looking for a pullback into the 1680s to develop to put in a potential inverse head and shoulder scenario, which would then have us talking and move up into the 1880s. More than likely going to be a trade for the other parts of next year. Silver similar to gold setup we're looking for a test of 2519 the trend channel resistance. If we can just move this. If we hold here at the 2320s, we look for a pullback into the trend channel support and weekly projected range sport coming in out 2190 from their watch for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side, looking for that move up into trend channel resistance 2530s for silver crude oil. So last week we were looking for a test of 7330s to give us a bounce we've got a decent bounce obviously then we have various headlines coming out of OPEC we've had concerns about the China reopening story and and saw a pretty steep sell off. I'm actually looking for crude to test below the $70 level and get a week the yearly pivot to test here just above 69 so if we can get that move down into the 69 handle. We know that the US are are actively considering buying crude oil into that $60 region to restock the reserves in the US so you've got you've got a pretty sizable buyer in the market there and so any reversal from that yearly pivot I think could have some real legs and we could then be thinking about a move back. Certainly into the 80s as as potential range resistance currently so any move into that 69 level certainly want to keep an eye on it watch for either that four hour or a daily bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side. I think first stop is a move back up into the the low 80s there as as the range resistance for crude currently and remit things out with Bitcoin. I've been watching this most of the weekend looking for this trend channel support to hold at six just about 16700 any close through the trend channel resistance here 16900. I want to be involved on the long side looking for a move up into 17,820 as the next upside objective for Bitcoin. So that concludes this week's whistle stop tour of the markets that I'm I'm actively tracking. Like I say, it really important week next week for risk appetite and risk sentiment we've got the CPI data and the final fed meeting of the year. And once we get those risk events out of the way, maybe we get a shake out in terms of positioning, then we'll see if we are going to get a setup for the for a rally into year end, or something else to be cognizant of remember price action we saw in 2018 that vicious sell off on Christmas Eve before recovering something to be cognizant of because of the rate environment and those rate dynamics that we're currently experiencing, which are great, because you know, a greater impact than than that, which we saw in 2018 really what happened at the back in that that sell off was a clamor for dollar liquidity, we could get a similar setup this year, but if we if we can get through the FMC and CPI without any major shops and market, and we could glide gently higher into year end. Okay, are there any questions. Gold, I've just just done gold so hopefully you, you know what I'm looking at for gold now. We're looking for any pullback into the 1740s is an opportunity to buy any retest of this 1820 area, as long as we don't make a new high momentum here. I think we, we could start see a bit of a pullback in gold before advancing into next year. Okay, if there are any other questions coming through I'm going to wrap this session up here actually what I'll do just quickly for those that are here for the first time, I will share with you the link from the Facebook group, where you can get my daily trade plan. And I'll also share the tick, the signal trading view accounts, where I share trade ideas on a daily basis. Let me just get that for you. This could be a good place to start for you following these, these trade ideas I explained in video format, that the opportunities that I'm looking at how I'm shaping the market the levels of the levels that I'm looking to to engage in so that could be a good first call for you, in terms of getting a sense of how to framework market price action and how to develop trade ideas. Okay guys, the other questions I'm going to wrap this session up here as always traders plan the trade trade the plan, and most importantly, manage your risk until next week. Thanks very much.