 Welcome to Digital Asset News to get top stories and cryptocurrency digital assets, now break down to bite-sized pieces. So today the big question that I keep getting or we keep getting is really twofold is, is the bull run coming to an end? Are we going to enter into a bear cycle? And should I keep dollar cost averaging? And there's a couple of different factors. And what I want to do was bring in CJ Rykel from Market Rebellion. CJ, thanks for coming out again. Just to take a look at some technicals and also to take a look at the macro to see where we are at and where we are going. So CJ, again, thanks so much for coming in. I appreciate your time as you're in lovely Puerto Rico as everybody else seems to be going to. So thanks for coming by. Yeah, I really appreciate you having me. It's a pleasure always to be on the channel. And those are really legitimate concerns. Is the bull market over how far in the bull market are we? And I think that last question that you mentioned about, should I stop dollar cost averaging? It depends on each individual's goals, right? Rob and I do not have, we probably have different levels of risk tolerance and goals when it comes to how we want to plan for the future of our finances, etc. So with that in mind, let's just keep that in mind while we go through the analysis here. But I think the first thing to understand about where we are in the market cycle is to understand how the stock to flow model has modeled scarcity in Bitcoin's history and has been so accurate at timing where the market cycle is getting much overheated and where it's probably a good time to start taking some off the table. So the stock to flow model is based around the halving cycles and each halving cycle occurs when we reach this purple color right here. So we had our most recent halving in May of 2020. And now we've gone ever since. As you can see, this is essentially where we were at in 2017, where we are in our current cycle. So we were at a price of roughly $1,000 or closer to maybe $2,000. That would be our equivalent of where we are now relative to where we were in the 2017 cycle. So I think the thing that's most compelling about this is that we may not even be at the next bear market low that would occur hypothetically in 2024 or 2025 in a macro market cycle. So that's very interesting and that's partially what leads me to believe that we're not even close to the end of the bull market cycle. We are probably about halfway to 60%. I see us really where I plan to take capital off the table and scale out is when we start reaching this green period of time or essentially when we become 800 days or roughly a thousand days until the next Bitcoin block halving. So that's a very general principle. A lot of people are looking at this in the space and are all making decisions based on this one model. So I think that it's very important and very important to understand when allocating capital in the crypto space. Just like you said, a lot of people are looking into this and probably going to do the same thing. So when we did our TA intro, we talked about how everybody's looking at the same thing. When you have the same group thing, even if it's right or wrong, it still happens. And you don't have to really know it or second guess yourself. You're like, well, that's what everybody else is looking at. This is what's going to happen. You can go against the grain, but sometimes it's just like, well, everybody else is seeing the same thing. So sure. And what's interesting about this one is that like you talked about right now, Bitcoin's price stays. It's May 4th, I think. It's around $56,000, $57,000. So you're saying that in the next bull run or the next bear market where it's going to drop down, maybe in 2022 at some point, you think it's going to be above $56,000, maybe at a $70,000, $75,000. Who knows? If we look at it and how we played out in our last cycle, and there's actually merit to why this could be like a potential super cycle, I know Dan Held has wrote a lot about the potential super cycle. I still want to play it conservatively because you don't have to sell the perfect top to make money. As long as you're in early and you've seen this market play out, I still think there's a lot of opportunity left. But like you said, Rob, our equivalent of where we were last cycle is probably about $1,000 or $1,500, and that would be pretty much the same price in relative terms as our current. Yet when we fell down, we went to $3,000, which was twice the amount we were at relative to our current point. So what I'm saying is that we may not even retrace like $100K in the next bear market. So it's going to be very interesting, especially based on this chart. Yeah, so real quick, let me share something with everybody. I'm going to share a screen. So what CJ was just talking about is exactly correct. This is the same thing that I talk about. He uses stock to flow. I just use a little basic model when I talk about the halving, all-time high dips and resets. This is in 2012 and 2015. Same thing happened in 2016, 2017. Same different thing, right? But the one thing to notice is that in 2020, 2021, when we're out right now, I think on all honesty that we are right slab dab in the middle. Let me show you. Yeah, so this is essentially taking a look back at 2017. And if you're investing right now, I always think the best time is when it's boring as hell and nothing's really going on and we're in a bear market, a dollar cost average. The second best time is, I think it's right here. So look at July 2017. I mean, we're only in May. So we're actually down here somewhere. So what CJ is saying is that at this price point, I think the bitcoin is around $2,025. And then I want it to like, I think around here was around $5,000. Right around here was $3,000. So in July, August, sometime around there, that's when, if you look at the models, this is where it could be. Now it doesn't guarantee future success or our future duplicity. But if we take a look at them, it could be what it is. So that's how I see it. And that's the big question as far as like, well, should I stop dollar cost averaging? Because what if it goes down right now? It's at $56,000. What if it goes on a $35,000? Well, if you dollar cost average, it kind of doesn't make sense. But maybe it does go up to $75,000. So that part, I got you. Makes sense. What else do we got to go over? Well, you brought up Bitcoin dominance and how the capital flow in the space has sort of changed throughout market cycles. And so this goes more in depth than just Bitcoin. This has to do with how I position myself in altcoins and how I think you should think about the altcoin market as we progress further on in the bull market cycle. So what I have outlined here is a chart of Bitcoin's percentage of the overall cryptocurrency market cap. So I think we're at like over two trillion now. You know, Bitcoin is just under 50%. But as you can see, in the bear market of both 2015, 2016, and then of course, in 2018 and 2019, that is when ideally it would have been most profitable, not profitable, but it would have been the best to be in Bitcoin relative to all the other altcoins because they were all bleeding capital very, very highly. And Bitcoin was the best at preserving capital. But as you can see, right as we entered the heart of the bull market, and this was the ICO mania in 2016, Bitcoin dominance just dropped off of a cliff and went all the way down to a low of like 30%. And simultaneously, we actually had the inverse occurring in Ethereum dominance. So Ethereum during the max and the heights of the ICO bubble, we actually had a Ethereum dominance that consisted of 30% of the overall market cap. And so you can see that the exact same thing is happening. People are building on Ethereum, DeFi and all of those interesting projects are actually coming to fruition and getting people really excited about the space. And I think the primary difference between where we were back here and where we are now is that all of those projects were, you know, just future promises, they're saying, Oh, we're going to do this, we're going to do innovation, you know, and now we actually have real DeFi projects delivering with amazing interesting stuff like yield farming. And it's just very exciting how capital is moving in the space. But as you can see, back to the Bitcoin dominance, this is really showing us that we're accelerating into more of the heart of the bull market based on the fact that Bitcoin dominance is dropping. I expect to continue to drop and go far below its previous low at 36%. Because I think there's more capital in the space ever before. And the exponential gains that are going to provide the five to 10, 20 or even 50X are likely going to be found in smaller altcoin projects and DeFi projects, as opposed to Bitcoin, which may be the safer play. But when we model it out, it's looking like 200K, which would roughly be three or four X. So the exponential really speculative gains I see are still found in the altcoin market. And that's represented when people have Bitcoin, they hold it throughout the bear market. And then once they get profit in that, when the bull market starts, they start to transfer assets and take those profits and put them into more speculative risk on assets like DeFi and like other things throughout the Ethereum and Binance chain ecosystem. And before we go on, this is just all investment opinion. This is not investment advice, entertainment purposes only, all that good stuff. Like you still have to do your own research. This all looks good. There's a lot of information out there that you have to take a look at. This is just your starting point. That is for sure. So that is the big thing. Hey, CJ, you show me a quick slide about how things move into from Bitcoin. Can you show that or you can't show that? I'll show it. Because this doesn't have to do a lot with strategy, but it essentially is a nice diagram of what I was just talking about. When do you show this and who do you show this to as your intro? Yeah, so this is a little bit about of our investment strategy and how we look at a lot of assets in the space when it comes to how capital flows. And essentially what we saw historically, and we're actually starting to see less and less of this because we're seeing initial capital not come into assets like Bitcoin. We're seeing initial capital from first time retail investors start to come into things like Dogecoin. But this model is still pretty accurate for the most part in the sense of how capital flows throughout the space. We either have capital coming in from Bitcoin or Ethereum at the start of the cycle. These are high beta assets. And then once those gains are sort of recognized in the beginning of the bull market cycle, when we have that initial run to 20k to 30 and 40k, we saw a lot of those assets then transfer to Ethereum and go into the moderate beta and high beta assets. And ultimately flow into ignition assets, which are things that you'll find on like Uniswap or Binance Chain and very high risk on assets that have done like 20x and things of that sort. But generally, once the bear market comes, all of those speculative gains have a tendency to flow back into both Bitcoin and then both into Ethereum. Go ahead, Rob. So I was going to say, I always call Bitcoin the gateway crypto, but it seems like more and more we're looking into a Dogecoin, but more specifically an Ethereum, because when you put an Ethereum, you can go to Uniswap and get whatever you want to depending on even where your countries are. But when you talk about these large cap assets, where it goes from Ethereum to moderate beta to large cap assets, you're talking about Ethereum to like a chain link, a V-chain, something in the top 30, right? Yes. Well, a large cap asset, I would consider anything over 5 billion in total market cap. And then it flows from there to like these really small ones like chain games and stuff you see in like the top 300, 400 market cap, but like way far down because there's a lot of gains to be had. I think just like in 2017, I mean, if you invested into Bitcoin 1,000, you know, hey, you 20X at the very end, good for you. But if you would invest it into something like small, small caps, I mean, take your pick of whatever it is, everything just flowed in there and you could have done 100, 200, 300X. Again, investment opinion, not investment advice, and that's how I see things. So these days, what I look at is Ethereum is crushing it because Ethereum is the one that you need to go to all the different dexes to get your crazy ass cryptos, right? But if you, you can also use Binance Chain, PancakeSwap, used on their smart platform to get other types of assets. And there's one that just came about which I will be doing a video on. It's called ZeroSwap or, yeah, the zero exchange. And what they do is they use Ethereum, Avalanche, and who's the other one that they use? They use three, Binance. Yeah, this one. And so with this one, I think this could be the actual next big dex and the next big coin. And it's like rank number 400. So if you're into utility, this is the one to go to. This one and probably Swissborg, because they're going to have a major announcement today, but I don't know what it is. So yeah, figure it out. I had flashed through the disclaimer here, financial advice by Market Rebellion or digital asset news. However, I have a position in zero. I'm very excited. I've been using this exchange. I think the swaps and the ability to go cross chain is absolutely revolutionary because users on Uniswap, you know, you have to deal with the Ethereum gas fees. It can be difficult to get out of certain positions, but with zero, there are certain things that say a trader who only uses Binance chain uses, there are certain assets on Uniswap or other dexes that use Ethereum, but they want to access, but they have to still deal with those Ethereum fees. But through zero and using a cross chain decentralized exchange bridge, those fees are virtually eliminated. So this is a huge revolution. And I think zero has got a very promising future in store for it. Yeah, exactly. So I don't have a position yet, but I will after this video. So if you are going to buy in, just know I'll dump on you. Not just kidding, but do your own research and all that good stuff. So I think we answered the two big questions today. Is the bull on over? I don't think it is. Just taking a look at the stock to flow model and then what's going to happen, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Binance chain flowing just through smaller caps and even micro caps. And then should I keep DCing and Bitcoin and Ethereum? This is a question that I have to ask myself all the time. And to me, just like CJ said, it depends on your goals, right? How big is your risk tolerance? Do I want to start to sell off some of my Bitcoin and put it into smaller caps? Well, I could if I'm one of those people who likes to really push the envelope, but it's risky and you have to think yourself, do I really want to make it this year, right now, 2021? Or do I want to do something like this? Let me just show you. We can all, I mean, not we can all, I can make it pretty well. Seven dollar cost averaging since 2017. And I've been doing it the whole time. I'm not the business losing money. However, if I want to just go, you know what? I still like the position. I still like the teams. I still like what's going on. I'm just going to keep repeating this cycle until 2025. And just maybe get out a little bit and maybe keep dollar cost averaging a little bit more. And tell the bear market, like I've always said, I'm going to sell 80% of my alts, 50% of my Bitcoin, get back in and just keep dollar cost averaging. So it's up to you to decide for yourself to do your own research. Do I want to get as rich as I possibly can right now and do my original things? Or do I want to say, you know what? I'm just going to, you know, slow and go, see how it becomes and then just dollar cost average when this bear market comes in. Because again, this is one of the monies made, in my opinion, when it's boring as heck, nothing going on. Anyhow, that's what I got. Yeah, maybe not just the pouring, maybe you should add depressing. It is depressing when you see your net worth go, wow, I'm a genius. And all of a sudden you're like, what the heck just happened? So anyhow, that's what we got. So CJ, any last words of advice before we wrap it up today? You know, I just think it's important to understand your own goals and to be, you know, responsible, whether if you have dependence, like myself personally, like I'm one of those guys who's taking, like jumping full in when it comes to risk, because I have extra time, you know, but I'm helping my dad in cryptocurrency as well, you know, he's new to the space and he has different goals because he has the last time to make that money. So we're playing things a little bit more conservative on that front. But yeah, that's all I would say is just manage risk and never put yourself in a position where you can have a permanent infinite loss. Exactly. And then so there's one side of that coin, the other side is something like me, late 40s, kids and grandkids, you just look into just to make sure that you do the right thing. So you can actually get in a little bit and, you know, get them ahead in life. And then of course, there's the other side, which is, you know, 60s, 70s, 80s. And I know there's a bunch of those people who watch this channel. It really just depends on what you want to do right now or later. So again, everybody's goals different, your goals are not my goals or CJ's goals. Make sure it's ready to improve and do your own research. All right, thanks so much for watching. We appreciate your thumb value. Give it a thumbs up, like it, subscribe, all that great stuff. And we'll see you on the next one. Thanks.