 komusul నీడింుత్డత్ Financial త్దెమ౬త్యెళ్� westin సుత్తోాట్టిట్యె. సుణిథితేయెమాస్ో, తిబినేయిమనేప్ సునేపియేకాస్ Blakeనోనే. వ -... oh Spotj I am indebted to my host, my brother, his excellency, the governor of Sokoto State. I am the visitor to the university governor Aminu Tambua for the invitation to give this lecture. And I must also mention that by giving this lecture, I am also conforming to the royal orders of his eminence, the sultan. And as you have noticed, his orders to come on here will also prompt me a bit in the military fashion, I have my humble say. I will not argue with his eminence about which profession comes first, whether it is law or the military. All I know is that if a gun is pointed at you, you better obey. But I must thank Israel Highness for his kindness, his counsel and his friendship, which I have enjoyed for very many years. Your excellency, the governor of Sokoto State, please accept my commendations for the foresight that you have shown in sustaining this institution. From its beginnings to this day, where we are witnessing the first, second and third convocation ceremonies. Just as you have mentioned to me, your immediate predecessor, Dr. Noamako, deserves also a good mention for his foresight in establishing this university. I must also thank the vice chancellor and faculty of this unique university for the warm welcome that I have been given. I suspect that the special welcome I was given is more on account of the fact that I am like you, a professor. So this is as between we teachers and I am very happy that I have been received so warmly. I was informed that although this, as we know, is a state university, the staff and students of this institution are drawn from all parts of Nigeria. This is as it should be. The very concept of a university is its global rich and nature. The university must embrace the universe for ideas, for talents and knowledge. There is a sense in which the strength in the aggregation of diversities that we find in a university is a metaphor for the strength of a nation with the diversity and cultures that we have. This university benefits also from the rich and enviable antecedents by your location here in Sokoto. Sokoto, this city, is itself a citadel of learning, the home to revered leader and revolutionary Sheikh Usman bin Fodio. We are all justly proud of the quality of scholarship that is deeply entrenched in the research works of the founding fathers of this caliphate. This is a legacy that we must all cherish and nurture. Hersey, congratulations to the graduates on this remarkable achievement of completing your courses of study and doing so under the particularly unique circumstances of the past year. I commend your resilience and perseverance. I must also congratulate you and your guardians and parents on this special day. We thank God that you are alive to see the day when your children and wards attain this enviable height. I also bring you the very warm greetings and felicitations of our president, President Mohammad Ibuhari. The subject of this brief lecture is Nigeria, some defining issues for the future. I'll be sharing my thoughts on some issues that in my view will shape the future of our country for good or for ill. And I think it is appropriate to share these thoughts here in this important place of learning and inquiry so that we can engage in the great work of thinking and planning ahead and preferring solutions. The difference between failure and success is usually planning and preparation. It is our duty as policy makers and that of the academic community to think, to innovate and to find answers to the typical questions along the development journey. It is that sort of inquiry that I hope this lecture will inspire. There are at least four issues and I'll be talking of only four which I think we must find appropriate response to as a nation and as a people. There are one population growth, two climate change, three security and four unity, the unity of a nation. Again I'll repeat those. Population growth is the first. We must find a solution to the population growth. We must find a solution to the issues of security. We must find a solution to the issues of unity and of course climate change. Let's just take population growth. According to the latest estimates by the United Nations, I expect the population division. Nigeria is currently the seventh most populous nation in the world with an estimated population of over 200 million. In the next 30 years, Nigeria is projected to become the world's third most populous country after China and India, with some forecasts saying that we'll have a population of almost 800 million people by the end of the century. What this means is that there will be almost four times as many people in the country, almost four times as many mouths to feed, as many who would have to go to school, as many for whom would have to find jobs and livelihoods. Nigeria is also a young country. Our population consists of about 90 million Nigerians under the age of 30 with about 43% below the age of 14. These figures could mean enormous opportunities or they may protect great problems and all of this will depend on how we plan and what we do in the next few years. A critical game changer in whether this population growth yields a democratic dividend or becomes a lethal social and economic bomb is education. Education for all with an emphasis on education for girls. The UNESCO Global Education Monitoring Report says that of all and this report is a very lengthy report but I'm going to very quickly summarize some of the major points that it makes. It provides important evidence that education ensures economic growth, but education reduces poverty. But education also increases individual earnings, the capacity of people to earn more, roughly 10% for each additional year of schooling. For each additional year of schooling, there's an increase in the likelihood of what a person can earn by about 10%. The same report goes on to talk about how education can reduce poverty. How education, especially education of girls can actually reduce economic inequalities. If workers from both rich and poor backgrounds receive the same education the disparity between the two would actually decrease by 39%. In other words education actually reduces the gap between the rich and the poor. Also of course we know that education promotes economic growth. The benefits of educating girls in particular is even more profound. A child of a mother who can read is 50% more likely to live past the age of 5. I'll just repeat that a child of a mother who can read is more likely to live past the age of 5. Each additional school year increases a woman's earnings by 20%. If mothers finish primary school, there will be two thirds less maternal deaths. If women finish primary school, there will be two thirds less maternal deaths, that is death at childbirth. Besides, more schooling means that girls will not marry too early. This by itself will control the population growth. Not educating girls is almost equivalent to a man cutting off his right arm or anyone of his arms as matter of fact or either of his arms. If indeed half our population is female, we need not argue about how disastrous it is to leave half the population uneducated. To prepare for the future, there is a need also for creativity and the redesign of our educational system. The way we teach and what we teach, because we must recognize the need for speed, for scale and for a different type of quality in our educational system, especially what we offer to our young people. Ours is a nation that is already accustomed to innovation. Innovation is not new to us. Here in the Caliphate, we have such examples as Nanna Asmau, the daughter of Sheikh Usman Danfodyo, who in the 18th century as an early age recognized the importance of scale and the use of trained trainer models in achieving that. She established the unbroken chain of scholarship through her young tarot educational movement. Nanna Asmau created a cadre of women, of women teachers, the judges, who after their training traveled to different parts of West Africa for the purpose of educating an empowering woman. To date, the influence of their work is being felt and celebrated across the continent. In recent time, we have also had the Jacondas schools in Lagos having recognized the adverse effect of running morning, evening and afternoon shifts on teachers and students. The late Jacondas set out to eradicate the shift system which had been institutionalized and institutionalized free education and embarked on the construction of modest but functional structures. To house the teeming children, at one point, Jacondas was actually launching up to ten schools a day. The impact was immediate and significant. Today, we live in a world where multiple outlets exist for the delivery of education. From the regular classroom setting to Google classrooms to Zoom instructions to radio instructions in multiple languages. And there are mobile applications or mobile phones that we can use. I was recently introduced to the virtual reality goggles which are configured to deliver content in practical training of science courses. They replicate the experience of being in a laboratory performing experiments just by wearing a goggle. While it is absolutely important to invest in the physical structures in schools, it is even more important to invest in the training of teachers who will shape the young minds of the children and equip them with modern skills in the application of these innovative technologies that ensure quality control, reach and of course sustainability. In doing so, we could actually enhance the capacity of teachers who are in the end those who will do the very best that they can and infuse the best quality of education. Back home, apart from the various interventions that we already have, there is already a growing need for us to accommodate even sharper ideas and sharper programs for the education of our young people. There is so much that can be done. Today, we will find ourselves in doing even in the innovative ways that we have seen and the various things that can be done. We find ourselves caught between trying to decide which are the best options, which are the best options that we can use, which are the best methods that can deliver the best results, especially with a large population such as ours. Recently, the president launched a program where he approved the extension of the home-grown school-feeding program in the country to cover our major schools and other children in non-conventional educational settings. Earlier this week, a national project, the address children's project, was introduced here in Sokoto State and it aims at addressing the challenges that are disadvantaged youth and children face, providing them with wherewithal to engage in conventional schools or otherwise take ownership of their lives, thereby giving them home and a life of dignity. Working with the federal MDAs, the private sector and development partners, the federal ministry, the federal government, through the office of the special advisor of social investments, aims at providing basic education, entrepreneurship, skills, vocational training, sports agriculture and digital and live skills, while also addressing the health concerns related to the nutrition, substance abuse, vision, hearing and special needs. In all these technologies, mobile learning mediated by mobile devices and the mobility of learners regardless of their devices and the mobility of content in the sense that it can be accessed from anywhere, should form part of the approaches of a new educational system. We have seen these technologies successfully deployed in rural schools in India, in the Karnataka, Gujarat in India, where they've deployed these same devices in view of the nature of our federal system. We must also take into account that the successes of all of these programs depend on the buying of the states. This is inevitable since the majority of the schools that we run are owned by state governments. Beyond ensuring basic education, we must harness the opportunities that come and the benefits that come with large populations. In the design of an exceptional educational system, now there is a need for us also to ensure that our educational system is globally competitive, so that we can have a globally competitive workforce and surpass the achievements that have been reported by countries like China and India in that regard. With a large population, sometimes we assume that this just means cheaper labour costs. But that may be insufficient to attract investments or improve productivity. A well-skilled workforce is important. Sometimes we assume that because our population is large, so we have cheap labour and investors should be happy with that. But that's not the experience, that's not the experience of countries all over the world. The CEO of the Apple Corporation, Mr Tim Cook, several years ago pointed out that the reason that his company makes iPhones in China is not because of the cheap labour, but rather because of the concentration of skilled manpower in China. At the time he was making the statement, there were over 2 million application developers, app developers in China. India has become attractive also and has retained some of the largest global corporations for various outsourced business processes. For example, for call centres for consumers of products and services of these large corporations, the workforce in that industry are mainly young university graduates. One of the factors that makes India attractive to these large corporations for these call centres is because it has a large English speaking population. But Nigerians are also, we also have a large English speaking population and our own spoken English is even considered better than most in the common world because of the accent less English that we speak. Which is a great advantage in an industry that relies on speaking. The work-based skills required today are changing dramatically. With a population such as ours, we must remember that the world is changing quickly. The skills that are required to find work are also changing. Digital skills are and will define employment in the future. It will define not just employment but employability in the future. Years ago we could say that our large workforce could be engaged in factories. Today with industrial robotics, many of such jobs will disappear because it might be cheaper to use robots on the manufacturing lines and human beings. Besides, these robots do not go on strike and they don't get tired. But with the loss of factory jobs, there is and there will be a growing demand for people who can design, manufacture and program machines. A lot of retail trade is now conducted online. It means that jobs as shop assistants will be fewer. But there will be openings for those who can use Instagram or other platforms for sale and for marketing. Skills in digital animation, graphics, motions and advertising and marketing will be sought after. Preparing for the future with a quadruple population therefore requires critical thinking around the issues of relevance and competitiveness. We need to consider the impact of the potential growth on the provisions of education, health care, job opportunities, social infrastructure and poverty alleviation. I'll talk very quickly about climate change and the response to it especially the response of developed countries. This is a phenomenon that we must watch carefully. Of course we all know what climate change is. The devastating impact of climate change is already well known. Flooding is worsening in many of our states and communities. It's worsening in frequency, it's worsening in intensity. Desertification in the Sahel region is decimating pasture and farmlands. Our harvesting periods and seasons are being affected by changing weather patterns. We have seen some of the most graphic manifestations of this challenge in the form of persistent conflicts between farmers and herders nationwide. We know that these conflicts have been exacerbated by the loss of land due to drought and desertification. The loss of land poses an existential peril to both farmers and to herders who have to contend with the shrinkage of the resource that they utilize for cultivation and also for pasture. In this case, the loss of viable land is even more intense. It even intensifies the competition between the two groups much more. And when in combination with the febrile inter-communal relationship which has created a surge in crime and conflict beyond the immediate security challenges. But we must also recognize that this crisis will only get worse unless we are prepared to find viable means viable solutions. So there is a need for us to adopt viable means of livestock management as part of our drive to boost productivity. When these issues are appropriately and accurately deconstructed, it becomes clear that they are fundamentally development hurdles. That nations have had to vault over in decades past. It is also clear that we must evolve sustainable agronomic and pastoral models that restore harmony between farmers and herders. In the realization that we are all stakeholders in a common ecosystem and economy. Finding sustainable solutions to these issues is one of the tasks of the present and we must take this if we are to have a peaceful future. The federal government in collaboration with the state governments under the auspices of the National Economic Council have already developed the national livestock transformation plan. This is a comprehensive strategy for addressing many of the conflicts that we have between farmers and herders. And is now set to be fully implemented. Already 22 states, including so called two states, have indicated interest and pilots have already begun with the support of the government of the Netherlands. And some pilots are going on already in four states, in Adama and Nassar, in Plateau and Gombi states. The implementation of the national livestock transformation plan will bring an end to some of the conflicts that we are seeing. The goal is to make livestock breeders more sedentary. Ranching rather than random grazing is central to the new plans. This approach will lead to high yield in the dairy and meat and ultimately greater financial benefits. However, one of the things that we must take into account is that in this business there must be give and take. Nobody can have things absolutely the way they want. The future depends on how much we are able to accommodate each other and accommodate each other's points of view. The second point I like to note about climate change is the problems that we are already having with the developed economies. What are the implications of this climate change for our economy? The European Union, Japan and the Republic of Korea together with more than 110 other countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. China says it will join by 2060. Countries representing around 65% of CO2 emissions globally and 70% of the world's economy will have committed to reaching net zero emissions of carbon neutrality by early next year. The UK, France and Sweden have set out plans to end international financial support for oil and gas and other fossil fuels. The European Union will stop funding fossil fuel projects by the end of this year. Many developed economies are now saying that their cars will be electric in less than two decades, in fact some in less than one decade. The effect of these developments is that in a few short years the world will require far less oil and definitely also far less gas. It would be difficult to find funding for oil and gas projects. It would be difficult for us to continue the pace of investments that are going on in oil and gas projects today. Why is that the case? Already there are active developments within some and there are commitments being made internationally about what development finance institutions can pay for and what they cannot pay for. Gas which is cleaner fuel and remains the only viable transition fuel for us as we work towards zero emission targets. I want to just emphasize this point. The developed nations of the world are saying that they don't want fossil fuels anymore. In other words, oil and gas must be de-emphasized. Cleaner fuel is what they are talking about now. Renewable energy is what they are talking about now. We are a gas-rich country. Most of our fossil fuel is gas. If fossil fuels are defunded, if the World Bank and the other financial institutions refuse to fund oil and gas projects, international commercial banks will also refuse to fund oil and gas projects. Then we are going to have a problem. Not only will we not be able to produce oil and gas at the pace we are, our revenues of course will drop very sharply. So there are conversations with our international partners now must be on how we can have a just transition from where we are today to the zero emissions that they are talking about in 2050. We cannot have a situation where they simply defund gas projects. We cannot have a situation where we just simply say well from the next problem yes, no more gas, no more use of gas. That will damage our economy. In any event, cooking gas remains the one option that we have, the one clean fuel that we have for cooking. And that's going to remain so until something else is discovered. So it's important for us to pay attention to what is going on internationally. So even as we debate climate change and as we make commitments to the price agreement and to other arrangements around climate change. We must bear in mind that our interests must be front and center. And our interest is in ensuring that nobody just simply ignores all our needs and says zero emissions by 2050. The third point which I would like to go through very quickly is the questions around security. And I want us to, of course, all of us are familiar with the issues today. But I just want to begin by saying that the old notion of national security, which is just the absence of internal or external conflict, is no longer relevant. Today when we talk of national security, we are actually talking about human security. And human security implies that the state's sovereign responsibility goes beyond guaranteeing the safety and well-being of the citizens. It covers the obligation to provide meaningful livelihoods as well. Indeed our constitution, section 142b says that the security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of the end of war. So the challenge now and in the coming years is how to provide adequate security in a large country and for the welfare of a huge population. And I want us to, I want to emphasize that how do we provide adequate security in a very large country and for a huge population. I was speaking to a European diplomat. I was explaining that the northeast of Nigeria, that policing the northeast of Nigeria or securing the northeast of Nigeria, that some of the challenges include just the sheer size of the place. And I said to him that that northeast is like the whole of the United Kingdom. Plus Sweden or Denmark, just choose one, the whole of the United Kingdom. Plus Sweden or Denmark, just choose either of them and add to it. That was the size of the northeast. Nigeria state alone can take all of the southeast states and still have space left just to get a sense of the size of territory that we are talking about. So in thinking about security, we must recognize that the opportunistic attacks that we are getting today in far-flung villages, in schools, in the hinterland, in places that were either too very peaceful, in places that were safe, all of these are on account of the fact that we must do something and we must think more in terms of how to manage wide ungoverned spaces. How do we manage wide ungoverned spaces? Recently of course you know that many of the schools in the hinterland where abductions have been taking place are seen as soft targets by terrorists and Sunday criminals. Far-flung villages in remote locations across the country have experienced in the past. Some of them only experienced, did not even experience petty stealing or burglary and they are now raided by terrorists, villagers are kidnapped, maimed or killed. Even a peaceful state like Sokoto state has not been spared. There is clearly a need to significantly expand the state's capacity to reach all of these ungoverned spaces to interdict and to bring to justice the highly mobile and itinerant terrorists hiding in the large forests. The appointment of the new service chiefs by Mr. President and his express orders to them to do all things necessary to ensure the security of Nigerians everywhere has given us an opportunity for fresh thinking and fresh approaches. First it is clear that technology will be crucial for both smart surveillance and the interdiction of these criminals and terrorists. Technology offers the most effective ways of policing our large extensive tariffs. Secondly we need more boots on the ground in all law enforcement agencies. It is also clear that our centralized model of policing which was entrenched when the country was less populous and less complex is not capable of addressing the challenges of the 21st century in the throes of fast paced changes. The time has come and this debate of course has been going on for a while to evolve a decentralized policing model that will operate along the lines of state and local policing. I believe that there is an emerging consensus on this issue. There are a number of proposals for the establishment of state police entities before the national assembly. The Niger police force has also commenced implementation of the community policing program. Taking together these initiatives indicate a growing realization that policing and security management should be more localized and entirely centered around the public safety needs of our communities. Political leadership obviously has a role to play in the all important task of securing our people. On the 18th of February this year the National Economic Council which I have the privilege of chairing which of course comprises as you know state governors agreed to a set of principles to guide the approach of state governments to peace and security issues. Among other things the governors committed to ensuring the arrest and prosecution of the perpetrators of crimes to collaborate with federal authorities in many cases to reconstruct destroyed homes and pay compensations where appropriate for damages to property and livelihoods during targeted attacks on communities as well as the unequivocal condemnation of manifestations of hatred, hate crimes and related violence against communities. The NEC also agreed to ensure that security initiatives including state law including state security initiatives infuse into them some minorities within their communities so that when we are setting up state security we take into account the fact that there are minorities within our communities and that they also must have a say in the establishment of those security outfits. They have found the statutory jurisdiction of state governments over forest reserves and they agreed that in collaboration with the federal government they will undertake initiatives to eradicate forest-based crime on the part of the federal government we are committing to training and deploying more forest rangers to all of the various forests in order to support the effort. The council also condemned ethnic profiling and committed to ensuring that innocent citizens and entire communities are not slandered or victimized for crimes perpetrated by criminal elements within these communities on the basis of ethnic or religious affiliation. These resolutions by the National Economic Council represent one of the efforts by the political leadership at all levels in realization of the constitution's assertion that the security and well-being of all Nigerians is the duty of government. Permit me to speak briefly then on the all important subject of national unity as I close. When a multi-ethnic and multi-religious nation such as ours is buffeted by economic adversity it is natural for fault lines and cleavages to come to the fore. There will be those who argue that the survival and security of our nation can only be found in the narrow circles of our tribe or our creed or our faith. Indeed, it is inevitable that at such difficult times such as we are going through that we hear the merchants of discord seeking to divide us in many cases to promote their selfish political or their interests. This is not a phenomenon unique to Nigeria. The rise of xenophobia, nationalism and other forms of chauvinism on the global scene indicates that the challenge of managing diversity is not a Nigerian or African problem alone. Racial, ethnic and sectarian tensions are common to diverse societies. They are intensified during extreme economic conditions such as a recession or a depression. Divisive rhetoric is especially important during times of economic difficulty because of the pervasive apprehensions about survival and security. When large numbers of people worry over where their next meal will come from or the prospects for upward mobility or for finding means of livelihood is easier to tempt them to believe that their neighbors and compatriots of different ethnicities or faiths are the reasons for their problems and their mortal enemies. This dynamic underscores the necessity of economic growth as a means of enhancing social cohesion. However, the paradox is that it is impossible to promote economic growth where there is no social cohesion. Those relationships between both concepts is mutually reinforcing. We need social cohesion which brings peace and stability in order to engender growth and in order for there to be peace. In turn, growth fortifies social cohesion because it guarantees inclusive prosperity. It is a matter of interest that the most prosperous economies in the world are typically diverse countries. The most prosperous economies are diverse because the true world of nations in the 21st century is human capital. Societies that set out to attract and retain the most diverse pool of skilled human resources are ordained to prevail in the race for prosperity. With diversity comes a broad range of cultural, philosophical and intellectual approaches for solving problems. Innovation can only flourish in this kind of setting. This is why we must understand that even though managing diversity can be politically and administratively difficult, diversity itself is an economic threat and harnessing it properly is hugely rewarding. But I think it is also important to bear in mind that unity requires the hard work of ensuring justice, equity and fairness for all segments of society, for all ethnicities, for all faiths. We must ensure justice and fairness and it is hard work. We must not overlook any fears or allegations of marginalization or discrimination on account of religion or ethnicity. We must confront them. We must let people speak up and we must confront them. We must not sweep them under the carpet. And this is especially the responsibility of political, religious and ethnic leaders. We are the ones who have to do the difficult work of mediating between the classes and segments of our society. Any leader who cannot tell his community the hard truth, any leader who cannot speak about compromise and about coming together with other tribes and other faiths to his community is undeserving of the position of leadership. It is our role, it is our role as leaders to speak to our people, to speak to our communities and to let them know that this nation is stronger together than apart. Unity is not just a slogan. It is not just a slogan or even merely a good idea. It has manifest expressions in our community when Nigerians from diverse backgrounds are comigling, trading, partnering, intermarrying and blending in various ways. We live in a complex way, a web of multi-layered social, cultural, economic and political synergies playing out in every sector of our individual and national lives. Despite the scale of the challenges facing us, unveiling this web of commonality as proposed by enthusiasts of disintegration is a cure that is worse than the disease. The champions of division are trying to mobilize followership along ethnic and religious lines in order to secure their own positions or pieces of the so-called national cake. However, the choice before our society is clear, either we fracture our communities in order to seize what remains of a rapidly diminishing national cake or we commit ourselves to the task of baking more cake in ever-increasing quantities as we unleash our boundless capacity for enterprise and innovation. And I think it is entirely possible. We have the potential, we have everything it takes to provide enough for all of our people. We have everything that is required for this country to give circle and to give place to every single individual and to generations yet unborn, despite our increasing population. But it is the task of those of us who are leaders to ensure that we bring this country to the point of the full realization of its potentials. I therefore urge all of us to consider the importance of national unity. Nigeria is more than a sum of its many parts and diversities, ethnic diversity, cultural diversity, religious diversity. These are value-added for our nation. Difference should not mean division. In the context of national unity, it is essential for us to establish a culture of tolerance, open-mindedness and acceptance of the people of all cultures and creeds. There is unity to be found in the face of such differences. There is a Nigerianness that binds us all. There is a shared commitment no matter how surprised to build a better Nigeria for ourselves and for future generations. It is who we are. It is in our very beings, that love of country, that aspiration to do better. I am consistently inspired by the zeal of young Nigerians I meet across the country. The energy, the enthusiasm, the intellect that is on display gives me comfort that the future of our nation is certainly bright. Every one of us has a critical role to play in defining that direction, in defining the future of our nation, every one of us. To the graduates today, you have graduated in a time of global uncertainty and the challenges of these times are many. And you may be concerned about the future, but you must not approach the future with fear or trepidation. Instead, you must take ownership of all the opportunities that lie ahead. Today is the beginning of a great future for you in this nation. And I pray that all your dreams will come true. I want to thank again the management and staff of this great university for the opportunity to speak to you today. And to say that this university holds the keys to the development not just of this state but of our nation. And all that is required and all that is required for us to do, we must do. I believe that the academic community in particular has an important role to play in supplying the answers to the various needs of our country. Thank you very much.