 Welcome traders to today's online educational series next installment with me, Patrick Mungley. Can I just quickly do an audio check? Make sure you guys can hear me. Could you type a Y in the chat box if you can? Also, you should be able to see a welcome screen. Great stuff. Okay, so let's first of all, as always, just review the risk disclaimer. And take a second to appreciate that obviously foreign exchange trading or any trading really is a risky endeavor, but certainly you are doing yourself a service in terms of mitigating that risk by participating in these educational sessions and equipping yourself with extra levels of risk. Extra levels of knowledge before you undertake any trading activities. So, before we jump into today's contents, hopefully by now most of you know who I am, but for those who don't, those of you who have the first time, I'll just give you a brief overview of my background. After I graduated from King's College in London, I went on to join a city consulting firm and after a period at the firm, I left with a group of guys from the firm to do a startup. The startup experienced a significant period of growth and after four or five years, I catched in my stake and I began to pursue my passion for markets as is often the case with new traders or people who are making their first steps into the market. What I refer to as more meddling in the market and trading as such, I had a pretty good run in terms of beginner's luck. And when I started to make some quite significant gains, however, as is often the case that that beginner's luck ran out and I gave those gains back and then some. After taking a significant loss, I took a period to reflect upon what I was doing and I'm really as to whether or not I wanted to make a serious commitment to trading and to treat like a business and I took that decision. I sought out a mentor, someone who demonstrated excellence in the field of trading and I underwent a period of educating myself through his mentorship. Not only in the technical aspects of trading, but more importantly really in the mental aspects and we focused a huge amount upon my mental game and really was a period during which I became far more self aware and I really began to become a student of risk. So during this time I developed a trade plan, I back tested it, I forward tested it and I then underpin that with a rigorous risk management strategy. That plan and strategy I took to the market in 2008 and since then, on an annual basis, I've delivered profitable returns and I say annual basis because really that's how I assess my performance. I'm not interested in the outcome of individual trades or really even in a set of trades as such. It's really that to my mind, what I'm doing in terms of executing my plans, I'm collecting data and that data should over an extended series of outcomes, so weeks, months, years should demonstrate the edge of my strategy and like I say, fortunately for me it has done since 2008. Since 2010 I've also mentored hundreds of private traders from complete novices through to former Chicago pit traders who have made the move to the screens in really developing trading plans, execution strategies and mental performance. Since 2013 I have actually been responsible for managing investor capital through a managed account service that I run and again that strategy since 2013 has also delivered profitable annual returns. Most recently I was approached by Tick Mill to become a resident market expert. I deliver research and analysis to them and you can access that through the Tick Mill blog page. I believe you can now get email alerts as to when you post are put on there. And I also, most recently have been hired by an online trading education firm to head up their trading and trader education program. The unique aspect of that firm is that not only do we provide trader education, but we also then fund retail trading talent through a funded account service that we also run. That firm is called fxcareerswap.com if you want to take a look. And that really brings up speed with who I am and where I'm coming from. Now let's move into taking a quick look back at what we've been talking about over the previous weeks really and then an idea of what we're going to be talking about with the next phase. This is what we refer to as the intermediary phase in terms of the education process that we've been running now for about eight or nine weeks. Today we're going to delve into market cycles and really the idea of time as well as price. In the past few sessions we've been focused on how we can use simple strategies to help us identify very quickly when we open a chart what type of market phase we're in. Are we in a trend or are we correcting and if so how those those different phases can offer trading opportunities using some very simple tools and for the purpose of what we've been doing it's been for nachi retracement extensions and projections. Once we complete today's session in terms of looking at market cycles. We in next week's session are going to move on to actually looking at specific trading strategies that I use. So over the coming four weeks we're going to look at four of the key approaches that I use to identify trading opportunities and you'll see how the educational aspects of what we've been looking at over these prior four weeks. The first four weeks were just basic introductory information to to the markets these prior four weeks we've been looking more at how we can actually consistently analyze and identify and frame the market data in front of us in terms of the charts. Like I say coming four weeks we're going to to move into looking at how how we can actually execute trading strategies that have proven themselves consistently profitable over over many, many years. So that's so that's just to give you a heads up in terms of the structure and where we're moving to now let's take it back to to today's session and and what it is we're going to be looking at so. Traditional cycles. Or are based upon time between highs and lows. Okay, that's how markets. That's how people who look at the markets tend to frame the reference for cycle so an average cycle length is actually not particularly useful information because it doesn't continue because it doesn't really consider our title widespread the range of the numbers are. That are used to make up that that average cycle length. If most of the cycle repetitions that were used to come up with the average cycle were tightly grouped or gave a confluent area that average would actually be far more useful in terms of information. Unfortunately, an average can be made of any series of numbers which may be widely dispersed the average, maybe meaningless really predicting the next. Repetition point. So traditional market cycle analysis also assumes a cycle length is static and the static cycle will continue indefinitely into the future. It just doesn't work that way price and volatility cycles change over time. What might have been a fairly regular cycle in the past may no longer be evident in recent market activity, because cycles in and of themselves and not static they're actually dynamic. So the typical low to low or high to high cycle lengths are generally different for bull and bear markets and will fluctuate over time as volatility and price cycles fluctuate. Additionally, markets generally make their highs and lows at dynamic proportions of past trends and counter trends. Just as we discovered in the previous sessions that most trend and corrective highs and lows are made at or very near proportions of recent sections of the trend book correction a similar approach can be taken to time proportion. So what we're going to do today is we're going to use some tools that will help identify time targets for reversals. So you'll learn a logical practical approach to time target analysis. Time retracements are made up in the same way as price retracements, except time units are used instead of price units. As we know, if most corrections are made at or near one of the key Fibonacci retracements, why shouldn't they also be made at or near a key time retracement? That's the question that I've asked myself and after studying GAN, WG GAN, a famous market analyst, price and time strategies. GAN price and time limits often seems very complicated, but for the most part it really boils down to a simple concept. Most highs and lows are made in proportion to one or more previous sections of the trend or counter trends. So to learn how to make price retracement zones, time retracements are made just in the same process as the price retracements, but on the time access. And they use some of the same ratios that we use for the price retracements. So the ratios for time retracements are the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 100% and 161.8%. In most cases, we just use the 38.8% and 100% proportions to help identify time targets for corrections. The ratios are often expressed as percentages just like the price retracements. It will probably not be complete a time retracement in terms of when it tests the 38.2% retracement. As we talked about last week in terms of the price, when price retraces the 38.2% retracement, normally that suggests price is going to pause and then we're going to correct and actually make another leg higher in terms of the correction. But it will probably, in terms of time, be complete more often than not between the 61.8% and 100% structures. If a market is correcting into a price target and a momentum reversal, remember we use the stock stochastic RSI to help us identify momentum. Then we can actually combine these tools so we have price retracement, time retracement and stochastic momentum indicator to help identify when a correction or a trend is likely to have completed. So what I'm going to do now is we've used this example, we've been looking at it over the past few sessions of the Euro. This is a setup that I identified in the daily market outlook that I posted on the 7th of January at the point I posted it. We didn't have all this data, we completed this move to the downside and we had this corrective type price action. And I suggested at this point that we would make another leg higher before seeing the next leg down. Now, let's just remember some of the key concepts that we think about in terms of identifying trend or non-trending action. The trend in terms of swings in the price should not be overlapping. So once we made this correction and we exceeded the prior low, we then had another trend move to the downside. Identify the trend move as non-overlapping sections of price, which we've got here. So once we had our trend in place, we then, using our retracement tools, had a couple of levels that we wanted to focus on. We trained it up into the 38.2% retracement and as we often do, that level caused a pause in the price action. It wasn't sufficient really as a minimum requirement for the corrective cycle to complete it. But we then made another swing high. Let's bring back in our momentum tool here. So we have this swing and then we look for a swing low and we've got this swing low here. And then once we've taken out this high, we had an A, B, C, D pattern that we talked about. So we had this price projection versus the last corrective move. So this is the tool we use, the Fibonacci trend-based projection. And that gave us a price level of 111.65. But we wanted to see a test of in terms of a minimum target from a price perspective. Now in today, what we're going to do is we're also now going to bring, we'll just get rid of the Fibre Tracement, the price projection for now. We'll also get rid of the extension there from price. And now we're just going to focus on time. What you'll see here, this tool is, let me get some settings. This is the Fib time zone tool on the TradingView platform that you can all access. And these are the settings I use. Again, what I won't do is I'm not going to spend a huge amount of time going over the settings. There will be a link for the video shared, and you can review these in your own time. But these are the settings we're focused on in terms of the Fib-based time retracements. We've got the 0 to 1 basically identifies the swing. So that gives us the original time structure. And we then have the 38.2, 61.8, and the 100%. Now on here it says 1.382, 1.618, and 2. The reason it says that is that we have 0 to 1 being our original measurements. So these are the extensions. So the 1.382 represents 38.2% of this time period. Is that making sense? Can you type a Y in the chat box if you're following along with respect to that concept? That the 1.382 on our settings represents a 38.2% of the time it took for this swing to occur. Y in the chat box would be useful to let me know that this is syncing in, guys. Good stuff. Okay, so we have the 38.2% of this time. We then have the 61.8%, and then we have the 200%. Now a couple of things I want you to bear in mind. As I said from the outset, more often than not, the 38.2% time retracements, when we test that level, although it's the minimum requirement for a completion in terms of a time cycle, we would only really pay attention to that level if when we trade that 38.2% level, we've actually seen an equidistant swing, so maybe CD pattern, or we've traded the 50% price retracement of the swing. Okay, but more often than not, the 61.8% of this swing in terms of time projected here with our fib time zone tool will be where we see the patterns complete in terms of corrections. The maximum we want to look at is a 100%. So this swing here, if I draw this in, so this swing here, by the time we trade, by the time trades to this level, this has actually been an equal measure in terms of time. Okay, so by the time we've made that equal test of the 200, which is 100% equivalent in terms of time of the original swing, more often than not, that should represent the completion of a complex correction. And let's just draw back in the complex corrections for those who want a quick refresher on that. More often than not, using the Elliott Wave tool here, corrections occur in three waves. Yeah, so that would be a correction. But they can also extend to make what we call a complex correction, which looks like this. Okay, so it's two sets of threes. Yeah, now the minimum requirement for an ABC correction is the 38.2% time retracement. So in this instance, we have a swing high. We have a swing low. Yeah, again, for objectivity in terms of taking away the guesswork out of the swings when you're first starting out, you can use just reference the stochastic swing points to give you an objective measurement of the structure. So what we've got here is an ABC, so a simple correction completing at the 38.2% retracement. So what we've got there are the minimum requirements to suggest from a time perspective that a correction could have completed. Now, again, we want to factor in the concept that the 38.2% retracement is more often than not a pause than the actual reversal. So we get a pullback, we make a new low in our momentum indicator, but know that we don't break the prior swing low, so we can't at this point accurately suggest that the completion is complete. Okay, so once we have this low in place and we take out the prior swing low, then more often than not, we understand that we could be going into a complex correction. And in this instance, that's what plays out because we have our swing points to draw these in quickly. And then we make a complex correction. So we have an ABCDE pattern and note that the ABCDE pattern completes at the 100% time projection. So key takeaways from this section are a simple ABC corrected pattern at a minimum should complete at the 38.2% retracement. More often than not, they will complete at the 61.8% time retracement. If we haven't completed the correction by then, the only other correction we can consider or we want to pay attention to is the complex correction which should complete at the 100% time projection. Okay. Now in a minute, we're going to add in the price retracement, but for now we just want to focus on these time levels so that we get familiar with them before adding back in the price. So now that we've got our fib retracement levels, what we can also now look at are our fib expansion levels. So as we say, as we use the trend-based fib extension to measure in price, our ABCDE patterns, is anyone else having an issue with the sound? No. One second, guys. Gordon, you'll have to log out and log back in. Okay, let's carry on. Gordon, we'll have to can hear. Okay, great. Okay, so we have our, it's just the same as we have our price levels in terms of the ABC pattern or ABCDE, any which one you want to use. We also have the ability to do that for time. And for that, we use the trend-based fib time tool. Okay, so what we do there is we measure our swing points again and this time we get a projection in terms of time. Okay, so once we have our swing levels in place, our A, our B, swing high, we measure time projection for our B points. Okay, let me just get rid of those. So now what we get is a time-based extension, which gives us a window for where this, from a time perspective, where we're likely to see the correction complete. And what we notice similar to the principle that we use in terms of price, we get a cluster. We want to pay attention to the fib clusters. Okay, so here in terms of the cluster, we actually get a confirmation not only in terms of the time-based retracement, but now we have a time-based extension suggesting that from a time perspective, this correction should complete in and around one o'clock in the morning on the 14th of January. Okay, so we can be that precise here with these time tools. We also then have our momentum tool indicating that the correction is overbought. Okay, from the RSI to cast it. And we've got two time-compliant factors. Okay, now if we bring back in our fib-based retracement, so now we're looking at price and we start to see where that sings up. Well, we've got a 50%, so we achieve the minimum price requirement for the correction to complete. And we can also bring in our tool for measuring the trend extension, so we have A, B, C. And a couple of things are interesting, aren't they? Because what we've got here, actually, what we've got here is that we don't actually make the minimum, more often than not the minimum requirement. Again, remember how we want to phrase our approach to the markets is that we're always thinking in terms of more often than not in probabilities, not in absolutes. We don't actually test into the equidistant swing from a price perspective. Now, more often than not, as a minimum requirement, that's what we'll achieve, the A, B, the equality swing, A, B, C. So we don't get that, but we have confident time factors and we do achieve the 50% retracement. So from a probabilities perspective in terms of building the case for a trade, the minimum requirements have been met. We meet it from both the time and price perspective and we do sell off. But we know that when we get that next swing low using our momentum tool, we see we haven't taken that price swing and we haven't got a new low in price. So immediately what we can think to ourselves is that there's a high probability that the correction is not complete and we have some new levels to measure from. Okay, so now we have this A, B, C and we can change our time tools to reflect change in time. And then we watch to see where we get confidence and what do we get? Well, we now have the 61.8% retracement from a price perspective. We have an A, B, C, D from a price perspective coalescing in and around this 111.65 to 111.59. So that's giving us a six-pip window from a price perspective. And now what we want to see is where we are from a time perspective. Are there any cluster points that are available to us? And what do we get? Well, we have the 200% level, which we know is where a complex correction, that's the maximum time perspective for a complex correction to complete. If price exceeds this level in terms of time, then more often than not, we're actually seeing any trends occur. So again, we can't, you know, not every correction is going to fit this model, but more often than not, it will. And that's what we want to focus on as traders, probabilities, not certainty. We're just dealing with probabilities here. So we've got a time and we've got a price cluster. Okay, so what we do on our charts at this stage would be we just mark that area as being a high probability time and price window. And we just mark it for the correction to complete. Okay. And we see price trade up into there and although we break through in terms of spiking on the closing basis, we don't close above that level and we sell off and we make new loads. Okay. So is everyone following along there in terms of how we overlay these time structures with the price structures to give us even better confluence. Let's look at another example. So what do we, so let's get rid of all these tools will start from a fresh. So once we take out this prior swing low, we then want to look at the structure of the price of that price action to identify as best as possible as to whether or not we've seen another trend move. And so in this instance, we can just bring in the other way tools to simplicity here. We can clearly see a structure that suggests a five, what a five wave move has occurred non overlapping price action. Remember the basic concepts or what we want to use here that will get caught up in analyzing every, every move on the chart and drawing as many lines as possible and really just getting paralyzed by our own analysis. So we want to keep things as simple as possible. So we know how to five wave structure we take out the price, we know that the last move was a correction. So more often than not, we're now we can confidently say that we're in a new trend. So let's see where we are from a time perspective to see if we can identify in time where we might see the next correction complete. So we bring in our time zone tool. And we've got ourselves a window there now. You can get rid of those settings so we now we've got a window minimum level from time. So at this point is generally the 20th. And we know by the 21st would be the minimum to 10 10 10 am on the 21st will be the minimum time scale that we could expect reasonably expect the correction to complete. And once we see our swing in place, our swing low, we have a swing high, we get a pullback using just the simple tools, the momentum stochasticist, stochastic RSI. So now we can start to think to ourselves, right, we've actually got a swing level in place that we can measure from. So let's do another time based measurement now. This one, going to use our trend based big time tool. And here we have a low, a high and a low. So now we've got a window here from a time perspective between the 20th. So let's draw in time zone here. So we've got on the 21st from 10 to three and 10 am to three o'clock in the afternoon is a time window we when we could reasonably expect this correction to complete. At this point obviously we don't see this data we're projecting into the into the future. But we can we get once we've got these two swing points in place, as as just using our stochastic RSI, then we're able to with a level of objectivity identify this time slot. Now, let's see in terms of bringing in some price measurements, what we do is we throw it into that area. So 38.2% is we know that prices will pause there, but we see that 38.2 and we try just shy of the 50% level. Okay, but we also have another tool to help us, which is our trend based fit tool, which gives us an A, B and C. So now we have an A, B, C, we have a minimum time requirement and we're trading into a price retracement. So okay, and we're able to identify that that zone there, even if we go up to 50. So 50, so I give this 111.20 from 111.10. So 14 PIP window and a four hour time window, when we can confidently expect that this correction completes and we do complete ultimately, we take out the prior swing loads. Okay. And what happens now as well, trend continues. So now we'll do one more here, remove all these drawings and I'll just bring it all back in for you. So the price extends lower and we are watching for the correction. So we now have this swing high down to this swing low. Okay, and we bring in our time tool. So we have this, sorry, that first of all, we'll take a look at, we'll bring in our price tool here and then we'll overlay the Fibre retracement in terms of price. What we won't do is here, we won't scroll forward. So let's do all this from these two swing points and see how, see how this works for us. And now we want to do a Fibre time zone retracement and just swing higher to the swing low. Okay, so now we've got two levels on our charts already. So we can scroll forward a few bars here. We can start seeing what we want to see now is the swing low in terms of our momentum tool to potentially give us a level to identify the first leg of this correction. We've got some price levels that we're watching. And in a minute we'll see some time levels. So now we have a swing low. So this could be our ABC. So once we take out this high, which we do, we now can bring in our trend-based Fibre extension. So now we have an A, a B and a C. So we've got some, so we've got some price levels now we can start to look at. So this one 1064 is one area we can look at. But we have the 1618 extension up here at 109.36 and we have the 111 there as some additional resistance. So let's track forward here a few candles. Now take out the equidistant swing level, but we knew that there was a high probability that wouldn't be the completion of the correction because 38.2% of tracements more often than not are the pause as opposed to the correction. And let's just now start to look and bring in the time from our A and our B points. So we knew that when we got up to this equidistant swing, we didn't have any time confidence. So let's start to see where we get some time confidence. So first area, first time zone was on the 3rd of February, 3rd of February, where we also had the 1618 extension of our A, B, C, and just above there we have the 61.87 tracement. And we had, and we had a price rejection from that point. Okay, now do we, does it, does price, so at this level we've satisfied some of the minimum requirements in both price and time. Now let's track forward and see what happens, and we actually break down through the lows. Okay, so once we break the lows, then we've got another section of price and time that we can start to look at. So let's go through and see once we make the low here, we'll bring in the tool again and we'll do one more of these measurements. Okay, let's remove all the drawings. So this leg completed the minimum. And so now what we've got is a potential swing low in place. Let's see, do we, we know we break lower. Let's follow this into getting the swing low and then we'll do the measurement. This is the current, so unfortunately that's the actual current we agree. So actually this is interesting in terms of mapping going forward guys for you guys. Let's take a look now and just overlay. This is real time. This is versus the current price levels. Let's bring in our tools and start to track some levels and we can revisit this in next week's session. So we have, if this is our low, or whatever we make our low, but for now we'll use this is our low. So we have some price levels and let's bring in our time levels and identify this point. We can only do the retracement because we haven't got our AB level. Let's look just from a time perspective where we could anticipate if we hold these current lows. We could be looking at the 18th of February minimum 50% retracement more often than not. But certainly 38.2 so between 10950 and 10980 at a minimum on the 13th of February. More often than not into 20th, sorry the 18th of February or the 20th of February. Now let me just draw in for the purposes of tracking this, the types of corrections we can see. So if we have this being our A so we trade into the 38.2 and we pause a B and a C point will bring us up into this area. Yeah. And once we've got that once we've got the A and the B we can also then bring in again just so that you can start to follow this at home. The trend based fib time. So once you've got that A, B, you then get a C window. So we can start to see how the time is clustering here around this 18th of February. Obviously we're tracking this into the future. What I'll do is when this pattern plays out I'll actually do a post on the data market outlook for you guys to follow along as I track this. So once we've got that swing low then we can do time and price calculations that at this point gives a cluster in and around the 18th of February. And we've got a 30 pit window in terms of price. In terms of tracking this forward into if we make, if this is our low, if we make a new low then we repeat this process into the new low. So that makes sense guys. So what I'll do is I'll update that with a post on the on the blog, the tick mill blog and we'll actually track the development of this in real time so that you'll get a real time example over the next week of how we can use the retracement tools, both time and price and how we can use the expansion tools in but we're using both time and price. Okay, so that wraps up the content for today in terms of looking at cycles. Does anyone have any questions at this point. Yeah, I mean it can really that's that's a depending upon the instrument you're trading if you're trading some of you know some of these majors because we're not a fairly low volatility environment at the moment, then the setups can take a bit longer to develop. But really that that's where you know the patience aspect of trading comes in I mean you, you know you can go a long time in terms of trading using a process or a plan and not get any signals but that's part of the patience and discipline of being a professional trader. But I mean you know you've got 28, 4x pairs that you can trade. You've got CFD you've got CFDs you've got indexes you've got commodities so there are there's a broad array of instruments and if you know if you were going to use this work and track that across all those instruments I'm certain that trade frequency wouldn't be an issue. Any other questions guys. Okay, there are. Okay currently trade effects. Yeah, do you know, you know, gold, silver, oil are all great trading instruments the S&P 500. Encourage you to take a look at the you know the strategy in terms of Fibonacci time and price of tracements and extensions works on all instruments and on all time frames. Okay, if there are any other questions I'm going to wrap this up here and like I say I'll update you in real time regarding this this Euro dollar chart as we go through the week and next week we will start looking at specific trading strategies that I use in the markets. Okay, thanks very much for your time everyone I hope this content was useful.