 The all-progressive Congress and the People's Democratic Party PDP seem to be at a crossroad over which the geopolitical zone of the country should produce the next president of 2023. And six unambulant lawmakers defect from the APC or to the APC from at that. Interesting times, but this is plus politics and I am Mary Annacolle. And ahead of 2023 election cycle, the all-progressive Congress, APC and the People's Democratic Party PDP are at a crossroad over which geopolitical zone of the country should produce the next president in 2023. Now joining us to discuss this is former special advisor to the River State Governor Poonabo Inkul Tharya and political analyst Byadu Shoumi who will be joining us much later. Thank you very much Mr. Tharya for joining us. Yes, thank you very much Mary Ann, good evening. Thank you. So it's very interesting for us to be talking about both parties at the same time. I mean for those of us who have been following the political happenings in the country we can see that both the APC and the PDP seem to be having their internal party wranglings. But why does it seem that both parties just like I said at the beginning of the show are at a crossroad and seemingly confused as to what zone they think the president should come from? Shouldn't this have been a plan or a clearly thought out strategy before the convention even approaches? Well, not necessarily because the party is populated by people from different political zones and people with different political interests. You know politics is all about interest. There is no permanent friend, no permanent enemy but permanent interest. So it's all about interest and so everybody will want to push his interest but just his own interest. And at times like this that they come together and do each accommodation agreement on which zone should take the presidency. And they are very much destined to determine the party chairmanship and who and who might go for government. So we started deciding that right now as to speak because the political hostings have started. And these are issues that especially the presidency and the chairmanship of the party these are issues that must be decided before the convention of any political party because that could determine where the chairmanship will come from, where the chairman of that party will come from and where the president, the presidential candidate of that party will come from. So it's quite normal. You don't expect them to decide on those issues a year ago. No, it's at this point in time that they are going to decide on certain matters. Okay, Mr. Shoomi, thank you very much for joining us. There are certain people who feel like from the body language of the APC that they might just be zoning the presidential ticket to the south of the country. Do you see any signs that might botchress that point or do you think different? It's quite clear that in the APC they didn't have formal agreements or it's not written in the competition that they should zone. But in PDP, in the case of APC, there are factors that we can't solve. One is the foundation arguments which allegedly was written with Ashwajubara Tinubu, the national leader, as attested to you by L5 and some other personalities in the APC. And the second factor is the prevailing circumstances, which is ideally in favor of a certain candidate's image from the APC because I do not see how APC can sell in no time candidate. It gives the background. The premise is to have the structure on every chapter and the heads of them are clear. Clearly the voices of leading entrepreneurs were not coming. I think we're having connection issues with you, Mr. Shoomi. If you can take that line again because we had some issues with our internet connection. It's quite clear that when you look at all the indicators, one is the internal agreement attested to you by leading party shifters, including the Kavino State, that they had with Ashwajubara Tinubu that they would consider him for the next election. The second factor is the issue of the prevailing tension in the conflict between the North and South and the fact that many North and leaders were either in support of co-nautherners, the Fulani ex-men, or were silent. They were not audible enough in terms of condemning the invasion and the destruction of lives and properties of people across the country. Even though it's happening, it's not true. So those two factors would combine to ensure that APC would likely in a bit go on to power fill the certain candidate. The party did not have any zoning agreement written in its constitution, but it has always been very sensitive to tensions, particularly ethnic tensions within the country. I think that is likely going to be the case. But they're waiting for PDP to actually announce its own zoning arrangement. PDP is picking from the North. They certainly will pick a candidate from the South hoping that what is appealed for the Al-Majorids would soon get in their favor. Let me come back to you, Opunabot. The PDP is obviously also on this table of party, inter-party drama like we said earlier on, and leadership, you know, Tossel. Although they seem to have a provision for zoning in their party agreement as opposed to the APC, why do you think they will be eyeing? Do you support Mr. Sho with me saying that it might just be the South again? And who could be the people that the PDP would be or rather the people who could be the hopefuls for that presidential ticket if you have any idea? Well, when it comes to zoning, zoning is ideal to ensure fairness, equity and ensure that all the three political zones at least could have access to presidency because, you know, politics is all about numerical strengths. And if you go based on numerical strengths, then the North will forever preview the president unless the other, the South and the East will come together, the West, sorry, will come together. And the North can also collaborate with any other zone while they need to do the fraction of these other zones. I'm sorry, we lost her in Kotara. Let's go back to Mr. Sho with me. Has there been a precedence of where a party, in a political party, a president had said he would hand over to a certain person to be the presidential candidate for the party and kept to it? Or is it that, like you said, maybe it's just going to be a loss of people throwing their hats into the ring? Let's not forget the Kogi State governor has been showing interest in running for that same party presidential ticket. Do you see that gentleman's agreement for 2019 in the APC taking its pride of place or something different happening? Yeah. Well, when you look at it, nobody can see precisely who the APC will field as its candidate. But what is clear to me is that I don't think the Kogi State governor has a standard chance in this game of chess. You only need to look at all the factors. Why doesn't he stand a chance? Why doesn't he stand a chance? Yeah. You look at the factors at the same time. There's a huge clamor in the country for a certain president. We've had major issues with headsmen leading to ethnic tensions between the South and the North. And yeah, the Kogi State is precisely in the North. Obviously, we seem to be a sidekick. It's an attempt by the North to retain power by enemies rather than power shifting to the South. We also know that agitations for succession is higher in some sections of the South. And also, we have it in the other section, people are clamoring saying they want a separate country of their own. So how do you doubt those agitations, if power will remain in the North, whether we call it North Central as in Kogi State or in the corner, rather it will if well be demand for separate states or for succession in Nigeria. So in order to arrest our drifts already, which is we are the precipice, I don't think the ATC will be irresponsible by retaining a North candidate as its presidential candidate. The most likely thing given all indices is that they will try and placate feelings in the South and allow power to move probably to one of their currents or somebody they have a gentleman's appearance. I don't know who will emerge, but what is clear to me is that I don't think he is not a candidate who will emerge as APC's material. You sound so certain. Let me see if I can go back to, in Kotara. I asked a question about the PDP and who you think that possible candidates in the areas that they're zoning it to, some people believe the PDP will be zoning to the North, while others think the PDP will be zoning to the South. But as we speak, the party in itself is still unable to retain its party chairman. One minute he's the party chairman, the next minute another court order is asking him not to parade himself as the party chairman. So again, how easy does it make it for the normal person to call where the PDP's zoning is going to? Okay, it will be a political experience for the PDP to zone, not just the PDP. The PDP and the APC to zone the presidency to the South. Because the shipping president is from the North and usually between the North and South. Now, when you talk of the South, the Eurovalls are included. And then again, because when you talk of the East, it's a difference in all together. We have the South West. That's right, it depends on the South West. So if we talk about the South, Eurovalls are included. Then if we talk about the South-South, but it will be why for the politically, for the party or any serious party to zone the presidency to the South. Let's talk about justice fairness and fair play within the party. And I'm going to ask this same question to Mr. Showy to speak about the APC and the PDP. Is there some form of justice equity and fair play? Because this is what most Nigerians are asking in terms of zoning in the party. And we know that the National Conventions for the different parties are coming up. And we've also seen a lot of people leave the PDP to the APC. Who are these people that might be able to hold that flag if, let's say for example, the party is zoning to the South? Who are the possible candidates who will be vying for that position? Talking about fairness and justice, it's a subjective thing because the party will have to agree on where their chairman will come from. If you think of me from the South, from the North and so on. So the party will agree. You're going to have a convention. It's all about lobbying. And it's a very large extent because there is a progressive fairness and justice. You're talking of the distribution of portfolios in the party. And you're talking about the chairman, the deputy minister chairman. Of course, when it comes to the deputies, you have the deputies from the three zones. There you have the National Conventions Secretary and so on. So the key position is actually the chairman because that is the terminating factor. Where the chairman will come from is the terminating factor. Where the other political office will come from. And where the president, the leisure cabinet will also come from. And the party will agree even before the convention. Of course, they are going to be dissenting voices. No doubt about that. Some will be adversely. But the convention will be the deciding factor. So when it comes to fairness, I don't think you can actually make the major political parties of being unfair or not being just. I don't think so. Because the convention will be the deciding factor. And before the convention, of course, the nothing will take place. And once the chairman gets it, for example now, the president's chairman, that is a suspension, the condition of the deputies, is from river state, from the south south, the chairman will be zoomed to the south for two terms. Of course, the next chairman will come from the south. So if it's the one term, to one term the next chairman will come from the south. But if he dands on the presidential candidate you'll come from, that is a major decided factor in here, and here the chairman of the candidate will come from, the presidential candidate and the chairman of the party, the chairman of the party resides in him, the chairman of the party elected, automatically you can extrapolate where the chairman, the presidential candidate will come from. It is simple, if you are a politician. Alright, Mr. Shoumi, this question is for you. Some pundits have said that, you know, the APC and the PDP, both parties are keeping tabs on each other to see who, what party is pushing for and who their tentative candidates are for all of the different positions within their parties. And, and they want to see if they can outsmart one another so that they can either have the upper hand come 2023. What are your thoughts about this? Is it really what is happening? I guess the question is still about the fairness and justice. Is that correct? Yes. Okay. Now, I don't share my colleague's viewpoint on this issue. Yes, it is right to say that wherever the chairman comes from, we will inform some other positions. But that will not be a factor because what you see is that in PDP, they actually think about where the president is coming from first before deciding where the chairman will come from. And then they go to the convention and then we got, you know, a reality. In the case of PDP, it's totally different for me to say. PDP has a zoning arrangement, you know, written in their constitution. If you go back to it, you realize that Obasadok from the south was president, then followed by Yeragrat from the north, then followed by Junatan from the south. And that was why Artiku emerged as a flag bearer at the last election on the platform of PDP. So I can see the same situation. I can see the cost between Tamboan and Artiku at the next election, you know, to extend the PDP. So it's most likely, or more likely than not, that Inotama would take the ticket of the PDP. Now, the issue is how do they intend, you know, to gain the trust of the people in the south? That is a different thing completely. And for PDP, that would be just a reason, because they would like you that we are rotating it, not south, not south, not south. Whereas in ATC, that is not the situation. This is the first time they have political power and they now need to move power to another, you know, section of the country, particularly the south. So I think these issues are very, very clear. The issue of justice and equity, you know, there's no place for that in politics. It's political calculations about who will win the elections. Both parties are waiting to see who will first make the first move and then they can now pass on it and say, yeah, we are the party to represent an interest or party to represent certain interest within the Nigerian equation. So I think that's the situation in which we are faced with. Alright, unfortunately we have to wrap up the conversation. No thanks to the bad connection. Biyaro Shoumi is a political analyst, openable in Kotaara, is a former special advisor to the government of River State. Thank you very much gentlemen for being part of the conversation. Well apologies for all the connection issues we've had today. We promise that on Monday we will have a great show on PlusPolitics. I am Marianne Akon. Have a good evening.