 Sina rin sa lahat ng mga nanonoood sa iba't ibang panig ng mundo, magandang umaga o magandang gabi kung saanman pukayon na roroon. Kamusta pukayong dahap? People will be talking, analyzing and dissecting this presidential elections 2022 for years to come. Was Google Trends a better predictor than the presidential surveys? Did the Kaliya surveys, presidential cup surveys or social media polls successfully get the pulse of the masses? Were the trending social media hashtags a better gauge for who's leading than the campaign rally body counts with drone shots? Welcome po sa inyong lahat to the 10th and final webinar of the National Forum on Communication and Democracy, Philippine elections 2022, so aptly named Anyareh post election analysis. I'm Cess Orenya Drillon. I will be your host and moderator for today's program which may also be viewed by a live streaming on YouTube at the TV UP channel as well as on the TV UP and the Philippines Communication Society Facebook pages. We will also have some live tweeting so please use hashtag PCS forum series with your posts. And before we begin, let's acknowledge the following. We'd like to thank the University of the Philippine System, the Office of the Vice President for Public Affairs, the Philippines Communications Society, UP Information Technology Development Center or ITDC, TV UP, the Internet Television Network of the University of the Philippines and everyone who has helped make this forum series possible. And because we have many faculty and students watching us today, PCS members will be receiving a certificate of attendance as a benefit of their PCS membership. If you have not applied for or renewed your membership yet, this is your chance to be part of the premier organization that represents the communication discipline to the Philippine Social Science Council. The online membership forum is available on the PCS website philcomsoc.org slash membership. And because this is a national forum on communication and democracy, we want to make sure that everyone has an opportunity to be heard. We will be using Mentimeter so that our viewers on Facebook and YouTube will also be able to participate. We encourage everyone to participate in our mini-quiz, madali lang po ito, salina po kayo. Your answers will be discussed during our panel discussion later on and you'll also see how the other viewers have answered. Again, for all our viewers, including those on Facebook, please open your browser and go to menti.com and fill in the code that you're answering right now. The code is 4453-44534610 or simply scan the QR code on your screen. Okay, I know that everyone is excited to get the show going so to set the tone of anyari. Post-election analysis. Let's hear a few words from the Dean of the Institute of Arts and Sciences of the Far Eastern University. Friends, give a warm welcome to Dr. Rowena Rays. Dr. Elena Perna, PCS board members, our resource speakers, prof. Ernier Barrios, Dr. Rachel Khan, my friend Roberto Ditao Jr. Our beautiful moderator, Seth Orenya Drulon, major practitioners, your faculty and students from Ruzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. Magandang tanghale. Anyari! We are seeing too many brokenhearted family members, friends, colleagues and students and so I ask, how do you mend a broken heart? Thank you for inviting me to the National Forum on Communication and Democracy, Philippine Elections 2022. The Institute of Arts and Sciences of the Far Eastern University is one with the Philippines Communication Society in the quest to analyze, decode and define further the elements and components of an election so that the strength of our democracy and our democratic institutions are protected and promoted further and perhaps help heal some hearts wanting answers. The National Election two days ago showed how reforms are badly needed even if it's signaled that the Philippines is committed to the form of government that the nation has. Our participation in the election marks our desire to find leaders among ourselves who embody our collective dreams and aspirations. We just hope that the winners will stand by the campaign promises to uplift the people and the nation. We are in dire need of role models and authentic leaders. However, the democratic practice of finding leaders should not be romanticized and idealized. Instead, we need to provide spaces where we can examine the factors that led to the election of our national and local leaders. Today's National Forum and Post-Election Analysis will be able to provide us with descriptions and discussions on what happened before, during and days after the 2022 national election. We are here to listen and engage with experts regarding the communicative modes of predicting election poll results. Though we still trust surveys and exit polls, what forms of surveys can capture the sentiments of the Filipinos? Do we conduct surveys in all their form sizes? Are Google Trans worthy of contesting or backing up survey results? The insights of the panel members will be able to contribute to the critical discussion that is not only supposed to be examined among communication and nuclear practitioners. We need the conversation inside academic halls, in family affairs and in friend group chats. The series of ground table discussions in the past months have been an exciting and timely collection of fora that investigated and pinned down the role of communication in media in Philippine politics. The series enabled the country to see that elections are equal concerns of economists, political scientists, communication and media scholars, and other social scientists. As a communicative scholar, I am intrigued and passionate about analyzing social media campaigns and how this relates to traditional political campaigns. Obviously, now we are seeing a new formula in packaging the leader who will represent our country's dreams and aspirations. To quote Vicky Morales, though we just need a popular name to win an election despite having no platforms. I hope that our invited speakers will deal with these questions. As an academic leader, I look forward to the insights of our colleagues and experts when it comes to post-elections. Perhaps a Torah comprehension about political communication is a much-needed skill that all our students must have to protect and advance our democracy. Again, welcome to the National Forum on Communication and Democracy and thank you so much for the invitation, PCS family. Now, 45 by FEU's deaf comms may alarm, may apki alarm. We want to understand so we can continue what some of us have already started, a social movement. Thank you everyone who made today happen. Thank you so much for your very inspiring message and for setting the tone for today's discussion din Rowena Reyes of the FEU Institute of Arts and Sciences. How do you mend a broken heart? Yan talaga ang tanong kahit ng isang magulang katulad ko and my answer was for my son to join and watch this discussion. You may now start answering your mentimeter poll on your screen. Simply go again friendsmenti.com fill in the code that you see on your screen and itong unang tanong paano mo ilalarawa ng Philippine National Elections 2022. For this question, you may put in three words for our word cloud. You will see that the words will increase in size the more times this word is mentioned by our viewers in the mentimeter poll. We see some answers already coming in. Bring back Marcos to jail. Ay ang lakino na. Yun ang nakita kong malaki. We'll leave the mentimeter poll open for you as we go along with the program. Iri-reveal natin later ang inyong mga kasagutan later with our speakers. The second question on the next page. Ano sa palagay ninyong accurate method sa pag-predict ng election poll results? A, pre-election surveys. B, exit polls. C, Google trends. D, cup survey. E, Kaliya survey. F, intercept survey. G, drone shots. H, campaign rally. Attendance. I, social media hashtags. At J, social media posts. Ayyan. So, alam ko, the chat box is so busy while our viewers are putting in their answers. Sirs, maraming nagsabi, nag-check in kung saan sila naroroon. I saw somebody from Beijing. Merong copies all over the Philippines po. Luzon to Mindanao na jyan ang ating mga participants at meron din sa ibang bansa. Okay. So, babalikan ko natin. Please do participate in this mentimeter fund quiz. I know it's not going to be just fun because it will be very, it will indicate how we all feel about the past political exercise. Ayyan. So, as we're hearing from our viewers, let's now hear it naman from the street, the word on the street with a person on the street interview with TVUG. Bikit ko naman kata siya. Fair and square. Malines, I don't believe. Maraming naman tayo nakikita ang anomalies sa numbers ng results. If you just try to analyze the numbers, it really does not make sense kasing nga parang walaang variability or are consistent and basically, why is it so perfect and dun ka talaga mag-dutuk. May mga questions, then, the back of my head na what if talagang totoo na talo, how do we move on parang being under a Marcos administration. Never in my wildest dreams would I have thought na babalik tayo dito when history has clearly told us ano yung nangyari before. Minsan, yung gaboto mo hindi siya yung mananano. So, hangga pinalang natin kung sinayong majority na pinili ng Pilipinas. Ang Pilipino is, pinipili nila hindi dun sa kung sinayong magaling or sobrang daming kung anong nagawabas na kahit anong daming mo nang nagaway, ang pinipili pala nilais kung sinok ang kanino siya makakalili. Ano, how can you say ma-anoy siya sa mga may hirap when his whole life he was living a lavish lifestyle. I don't think there is a genuine connection. If you check the marketing strategy of the BBM camp, ang target talaga nila, yung mga masa, yung mga class, niyung mga class. Yung halas lahat sila below middle class is minya. BBM talaga siyong sapotaan. The fact that they can make him look like a genuine connection with the lower income class shows how good of a branding the team did. Not less of what Bongbong really is. Let's hope for the best. I think ang pinakamagkakalan ng change sa bansa natin is hindi lang itong term ni President Marcos, but reforms saan na malaman din ng mga tao mga na yung mga requirements pa, kasi kailangan mag-tab ng reforms sa Constitution natin. Let's always ask for accountability and that's very, very important in this political climate. Kasi at the end of the day kung sinong sinasupportan mo, hindi naman, hindi naman yung tao yung mananalo. Hindi naman si Bongbong Arsillian yung mananalo. It should be the Filipinos that should win. Not one candidate. Thank you very much TV UP for giving us the pall of the people to the person on the street interview. So insightful views from the youth. And to start off nako, simula na po natin. Let me introduce our Distinguished Panel of Experts for our round table discussion on anyare post election results. You know, our first speaker was supposed to have been the founder and managing director of Strath Bay's group and the president of Strath Bay's ADR Institute Professor Victor Andres-Mangit. Unfortunately po, I'm so sorry to tell you to break the news to you that his father passed away this morning and we do please I'd like to invite you to say a silent prayer for the repose of his father's soul. So in his stead we have Professor Erniel Barrios of the UP School of Statistics. Magandang hapon po sa inyo Professor Barrios. And of course next we are honored to have with us on the panel the Associate Dean of the College of Mass Communication in UP Dilliman. She is a professor with the Department of Journalism and coordinator of CHEC.PH which is a collaborative fact checking project at the 2022 presidential elections. CHEC.PH is an initiative of the academe, media and civil society to counter disinformation and provide the public with verified information. Please welcome to your screens Dr. Rachel Ican. Magandang hapon. Good afternoon, Seth. Good afternoon, everyone. And Dr. Barrios, are you there? Hindi po namin na dili Good afternoon. Okay, and rounding up the panel it is my pleasure to introduce the Chairman of the Kapisana ng mga Broadcaster ng Pilipinas or KBP. The KBP organized the Panata Sa Bayan the KBP Presidential Candidates Forum in February as well as partnered with the Comelac for the Pilipinas Forum 2022 in May. Please welcome to our webinar the President of the Manila Broadcasting Company Ruperto Nick Dow Jr. Magandang hapon po sa inyo, June. Good afternoon, Seth. And good afternoon to everyone. Thank you, everyone, for being part of this roundtable discussion where we examined how close were the prediction models to the outcome of the elections. Okay, simulan muna natin yung person on the street interview that we just played. May I ask for, before we begin with that your reaction to the Man on the Street interviews, let's bring to the screen yung slides muna ni Professor Manhit, ni Dr. Manhit para ma-kita rin naman natin lahat kahit wala siya dito. Okay, there are two slides that we'd like to share with you from the presentation of Dr. Manhit. Okay, the first one is you can see on your screen presidential candidate who best fits selected criteria. Naki kita nyo naman ang naging risulta nito sa Pals Asia ang scores na ni Bongbong Marathos, ni Lenny Robredo, ni Isco, ni Manny Pacquiao, ni Laxon. Okay, shall we also share the second slide? Oops, andami slide. Okay, atto. Senator Bongbong Marathos has strong narratives on social media. Okay, are you would give you a moment to read through this slide? Okay, any comments from our distinguished panel? Sinon gusto magbuen na mano? June? Okay. I can start off, no? First, I'd like to, this is my observation mo na, no? And I think it kind of relates to some of the comments mentioned earlier about the fact that the Bongbong campaign I think ran a better campaign in this sense that they actually sold him like selling a brand. They addressed the pain points of what the population did. And I think with the help of Cambridge Analytica, I think they were able to come up with a great strategy. They made obviously research on what the pain points are and what the people, what the USPS or the unix selling proposition should be for Bongbong, and that's unity. I think they did extensive research and I think what they did was to identify ang kailangan ng tao ngayon unity parang yun ang overall. In fact, if you look at the branding, it's unity, it's all about unity. That's the first point. That they did a good they did a good selling of a brand, which is the brand of unity. Pangalawa, I think we should also point now that the Terte name is still a very popular name. We know that the president the Terte still has a very high approval rating and so forth. So let me just point this out. Bongbong wouldn't have won if Sarah ran as president. I think we know that. In our company, we actually ran several servings. We ran four surveys. The first one was was done in August and at that time Sarah was still running and the results were Sarah would have won. Sarah was let me see she was doing about 25-28% Bongbong was doing 17% or 18% Lenny was 8.3% Isco was 11.2% Manipaka was 10% and Ping was only 3.3% Sarah ran two would have won. I think the biggest strategy that this campaign did was to unite the forces of the Tertis and the Marcoses. Pagdating ng second survey namin, which is done in December and they unite na sila don, what happened is that the numbers of Bongbong and Sarah added up. It became 50%. It was adding up what the August surveys was. So I think that's the biggest thing. And that's the we call the billion billion pesos of question. In fact even the president was wondering why the heck is my daughter stepping down she's going to win this election and I think she would have won the elections at she ran because the name is still very popular and I think that that's shown by all the results. So noong umatras si Sarah, ang nakayari lang, nag-add lang yung numbers. The followers of Bongbong added up to Sarah's numbers and the followers of Sarah added up to Bongbong's numbers. So you just add those numbers. It may be simplistic but I think that's what happened. I think that's the biggest strategy na pinagusapan nila. So there's a chance na mahatin boton natin because the two of them are the populist candidates. So you're dividing the votes of the populist candidates if they ran against each other and I think the other candidates might have a chance because if you look at it Lenny was searching I can explain that a little later. Ang comment ko lang pala I just want to comment yung about the I mean, as you know KVP and the PP Charities are running this account the electronic account. It's not true. Medyo ano lang yan. That's all conspiracy theory. Because we were looking at the numbers they're not consistent. Bong was doing 70% ang bababasyan ng anong. It's not true. I voted for a candidate that didn't win and I'm sorry all these conspiracy theories na siyadong consistent yung 68 or whatever 6832 and hindi po to do yung and I'm sorry we were looking at the numbers. Sigil at anong natin yung mga statistician mga Sigil, Rachel you want to weigh in reaction to the graphs and the man on the street I generally agree with what June had said with regards to the effective campaign. In fact it was a very effective public relations campaign which was boosted also by the effective use of this information. So between a very good branding and strategic public relations then you had the informal but also very effective use of this information strategies. It's no wonder they're able to clinch it in terms of the numbers of the voters. Plus the fact that's why we see also a very big disconnect as the slides showed us they're looking for the least corrupt candidate and then you have Bong Bong Marcos as the highest person said. So I think that shows really the effectivity of the disinformation campaign because of the disconnect between the values which the people were looking for which I think we all agree with the values that they were looking for I mean there's no disagreement there the problem was the translation of these values into the who fits it most and I think that's where disinformation comes in. Okay. Dr. Barrios perhaps my question for you let's go not to the meat of the topic maganda bang naging batting average na pre-election surveys kung para sa risulta ng election? Maganda at hindi. Maganda to sa mix 10 medyo malapit pero yung iba hindi rin pero meron ako comment doon sa slides kanina na pinagusapan natin sa palagay ko their side the side of the unit team used the most sophisticated research strategy that is ever imagine in the research community they utilized the data mining strategy that invested on the big data that was generated by the social media the social media Facebook, Twitter are very rich source of information from there we there are some some mechanisms that can be used to extract insights and from here they were able to determine the aspirations of every Filipino on how they envisioned their president would be and then coupled with misinformation disinformation campaign and think one candidate to be the opposite of what the citizen aspire and the other one paint it nicely through effective means like tiktok and so on and that's how they actually won the election the main topic I'll be talking about later on is the 62% ratio sir June I'll talk about it yes yes we'd like to hear your views being from the UP school of statistics going back to what you said Professor Barrios hindi ba ginawa ng Lenic campian yung pagmine ng big data based on what you saw the way they communicated their candidates or the way they projected Lenny and Kiko sa tingin nyo hindi kula ng research apparently their team was able to invest long time ago even before the campaign period they already invested sir June noted they invested on Cambridge Analytica which is now closed they had among the best data scientists in the world and we have very good data scientists here in the Philippines but unfortunately it was only in October that VP Lenny decided to run so the concerted effort was a little bit too late would have started a year ago it was too late agree medyo huli na ang opposition ang groupo nila eto naman bakit magkaiba malikay sa sinabi ng mga kabataang in-interview kanina at dito sa slide na pinakita natin sa inyong palagay bakit magkaiba ang realidad although you touched on that ang disinformation magkaiba ang realidad ng halalang ang unawan ng mga butan itong parang are we living in an alternate reality are they living in an alternate reality which is the real reality that's my question makes sense can I answer oh sige Prof Barrios and then Rachel and then Dr. Nick Dowey I think there is a multiverse thing existing here because if you talk to ordinary people taxi driver and so on sa sabihin nila kailangan panuorin mo ng mabute yung YouTube at tiktokong ko kasi pinapaliwanag doon yung mga nangyayari so may alternate universe yung ibang campo where they think the facts are coming from there and tama ngayon mainstream media is the fake fake news source according to them because they were already conditioned that there is a parallel universe of what reality is lahat ng ito madali siyang dadoon sa data mining that I was talking about unfortunately it's very expensive because you really have to spend a lot of resources to acquire the data from Facebook and so on and so on of course data mining there's nothing wrong with that but spreading falsities and myths on social media what is that punishable how can we hold these people accountable they're already going to be in power and that's in addition to your comment Rachela you were about to comment on that alternate reality but can you also comment on how do we pano ba natin si singilin kung mga kasing nga lingang pinamood mode meron bang paraan well I'm hoping that the lawyers for Lenny will look into that into the legal aspect dahil I am not a lawyer so I really would not want to comment on that at the same time kailangan kasi itrace yung original source and that will be the tricky part because what we find in the social media this information is shared and that makes it more complicated to really pinpoint si no ang kakasuhan and then to comment on the alternate realities social media made it very easy because of what we call algorithms you could get trapped in an algorithm where all you see are the fake news and the real news or the facts don't penetrate into your algorithm and especially if our networks are very narrow we only have people of the same mindset so our world view is kinda it becomes unreal in a sense that we are in a multiverse nga ang mga yare and that's why this information becomes easier to spread once you enter a particular network once they embed themselves in a particular network then it will generate itself basically okay Jalun? I agree with both but I think you're right there's an alternate universe but I think it's fueled by the fact that as Dr. Baez just said na una yung company bong-bong magspread na conditional minds ng karamian ng mga tao and in fairness to check organizations such as check.ph they try their best to bring out all those disinformation, all those fake news we've seen a lot as we've seen most of the fake news are against I think the conclusion of check.ph and they've been published unfortunately because na una ang mag-condition ang mind yung bong-bong camp kaya ano sabihin mo pa dyan they won't believe you'll be faced with two quote-unquote facts which do you believe pag na-condition ng mind mo you just believe what you want to believe naging loyal ako dito I'm fortunate that's what happened as was mentioned earlier by Dr. Barrios na-unahan tayo na-unahan yung group ng VP Lenny because late siya mag-decide na-unahan and this campaign for bong-bong is not only the last year or the last two years this is six years in the making they've been planning for this longest time he ran for BP in preparation to run for president this year John na-conduct na ba ang KBP ng exit polls? No, no we did not actually my company NBC used to conduct exit polls except this year and the reason for that is because the use of the exit poll has been limited to a few minutes lang it's very expensive to conduct exit polls it costs anywhere from 3 to 5 million and the use of that information is only good for like 15 minutes because the pagsaran ng polls by the way you cannot announce the exit polls until after the polls are closed and within a few minutes from closing the polls in our experience 15 minutes although this year na delay ng isang oras and there's a reason for that na kawin ang conteng aberia sa UST but we did make that public anymore because it's a minor glitch that delay ng conteng but theoretically within like 15 minutes in the past except this year na alapas nakagadyan so useless ang exit polls at actual results kung sinong mananalam bilis. I mean this year was extremely fast ABSCBN would would invest in exit polls every election of course xempering ngayon, wala ng kagali ang mga exit polls we didn't invest in that MBC used to conduct exit polls we have ang total sampling mga 35,000 ng sample namin so napaka but you're saying in a quick count na hindi na halos hindi na halos magamit in fact I know there's a company that I know a lot of the people in this call are against this group because did an exit poll and they made it available to a lot of media including ourselves except that we were going to announce their results of the exit poll result by that time and we were already announcing the actual results so useless as far as content is concerned exit polls unfortunately because napakalit ng windows in our experience they are predictive can you allude to that glitch that you said there was a one hour delay I mean it's not important but we'd like to know what that glitch was about it was I'm not sure about this as I said, by 7.15 naga-announce a tayo na delay ng content because set up is like this the VCMs are supposed to send the results directly to the transparency server that's in UST the transparency server is supposed to pass that same data to what we call the mirror server and all of us the KBP all the networks have the mirror server ang systema doon you have a USB na transparency the mirror server then that's what you tabulate so ang nangyari actually if you recall 3 years ago in 2019 there was a 7 hour glitch I don't even remember that at 7.15 na tabulate na tayo and then after a few minutes big lang namin to hindi kumagalawin numbers ang nangyari daw doon there's so much data coming in into the transparency server hindi siya makabato doon sa mirror server so that's what they they're supposed to have solved that problem this year and they did unfortunately meron pa rin ponting nangyari na hindi siya bumabato so ang ginawa nila minanual mo na and then later on na resolved na in fact compared to the previous elections this was very very fast by about 10 o'clock nang 90% na yung data natin napakadami na 90% na normally you reach 90% siguro madaling araw na yun but this year was very fast and I think it was explained by Commissioner Garcia that part is because of technology mas mabilis ang transmission ngayon dati dati kasi mabagalan transmission ng mga cell sites natin okay which brings me to the question for for prof Barrios maraming conspiracy theories na lumalabas masyadong consistent yung pag-transmit parang parang hindi nagbago parang yung distribution was too equal between bong bong and lending ano po para masagot na yung mga ganyang mga duda ulo ng maraming okay may isi share ako sa inyong excel file sigil while you are sharing kasi yan din ang lumalabas sa Q&A was there mass cheating involved considering 1800 VCM's malfunction and the votes ratio between BBM was linear okay go ahead yung linear thing kung mapapansin nyo itong table na ito ito yung part nung nagsicirculate sa social media I just captured it here okay so sa statistics meron tayong pinatawag na central limit theorem anong ibig sabihin ito yung mean habang lumalaki yung sample size ay lumalapit sa totooong value ng mean alright now ang proportion percentage of votes shared by the candidates is an example of a mean alright so ito tinig na natin yung kasamay ito doon sa table na nagsicirculate sa social media meron tayong 1 million nagsend naging 17 million naging 22 hanggang naging 36 million and then for here ito yung mga corresponding 70% si Marcos 29% si Bipileni 67% 32% for each of this number of votes accumulated so that's that's a that's a cumulative count by the way so itong 13 1 million kasamay ito sa 17 million and so on kung sana yung votes na pinagusapan natin dito fresh vote tapos constant yan there's something wrong with it pero dito kasi cumulative yan ngayon sa statistics that's that's possible that's a statistically sound hindi yan irregular kasi sabi ng central limit theorem kung ano yung totooong proportion habang lumalaki yung number of votes that we are counting nagiging malapit ay doon sa totooong proportion ito so kung nyari ang totooong proportion ay 32% si Bipileni 68% si Marcos alright so basi doon sa central limit theorem kinukon para kinukompute natin yung range to kung nasa 1.3 million na yung pumasok na votes tapos ang totooong vote ni Bipileni ay 32% 68% si Marcos ang mangyari ngayon ay at 1.3 million we expect na yung vote ni Marcos will range from 66.64% to 69.36% ang kay Bipileni 30.64% to 33.36% yung doon sa transmission si Marcos ay naka 70.05% medyo mas mataas dito okay si Bipileni ay 29.95% medyo mababa ng conti dyan alright at nating ng 17 million na yung count okay so we expect si Marcos will be between 67 to 68% si Bipileni 31 to 32% pumasok na ngayon ito yung numbers nila dito sa range that we are talking about okay hanggang sa pagdating dito sa clear to everyone pagdating dito sa 36 million so ang range ngayon ay 66.67% to 68% 67.75% yung lumabas it's within the range that we are expecting according to the central limit UREM in statistics so statistically there's nothing unusual with the proportion that is expected as what the central limit UREM is telling us okay how about a professor the VCMs that did not work based on percentages would this be a big number would it have affected the outcome ah we need to know how many VCMs exactly malfunction alright now other than this there's a possibility still na something wrong happened in the course of transmission because some are doubting why the transmission is so fast well of course because the technology is improving we expect transmission to be really fast and again there were questions ah why do we anticipate possible manipulation when in fact before the election all representatives of the candidates are invited to inspect the machine to look at the SD cards to look at the codes that are inserted in that are placed into the SD cards now there's still a possibility that in the course of the transmission of the data to the transparency server and wherever it will go a code, a program can intercept this along the way that's possible there's a it's technologically possible of course I'm not claiming anything but here however once we have across check the actual manually counted votes versus the transmitted votes at the precinct level and we can see discrepancy then that's a probable cost for further investigation so I don't see any there's nothing statistically that we can say it's unusual there's no problem with that yung consistent numbers but there's still a possibility that something happened in the course of transmission but the only way for us to verify that is through manual across checking with the manual count which is what the PPCRV is doing that's right and also there is that there's also the audit that's being done by Komelik by Namfrel random manual audit by Namfrel random manual audit correct I think PPCRV is going to manually encode 10,000 I'm not sure if this is ballots or precincts I think it's ballots now ngayon kailangan natin malaman how the ballots were randomly selected kasi yung proportions that we can see from there is not necessarily a reflection of the proportions that we would expect in the transmitted data so that bears watching still just to set my for us to be at peace with the results yes okay let's go in PPCRV all COCs what happens kasi is every clustered precinct will print COC and those are the ones being sent to PPCRV so PPCRV will count all 107,000 COCs so 100% should be account of PPCRV yung Namfrel is random yun they will only select a few randomly precincts that they will count but PPCRV will count all of the COCs in Dr. Barrios that will be great it needs for us to see and compare the encoded versus the transmitted data that's actually what happens since the start of this electronic method that we've done so every in fact PPCRV will report it there are any discrepancies in the past we've reported some discrepancies but very very minor discrepancies less than ang nareport ng discrepancy when they do the report alright so let's go back to ano ba ang reliable kasi against the result of false asian SWS VP Lenny and Kiko's followers were banking on Google Trends that showed seemingly a reverse and there was also this last-minute survey purportedly but we could not really look at the methodology purportedly by UP Ateneo and LaSalle professors I'm not your professors or alumni showing that the lead shifted to the camp of VP Lenny would you like to comment? yes thank you with regards to the Google Trends we could see that there was a big change in terms of statistics in Google Trends from January to April but then Google Trends cannot replace polling because it only shows interests so it actually aggregates Google searches that are made by internet users and by it actually shows it can tell you the interests and you could see that ever since they started the rallies the interest of the public increased the Google Trends dun siya tumas so it showed that it was effective in terms of people now were looking for information about Lenny and Kiko but at the same time it does not tell us what kind of information they found and that's the problem with Google Trends if they were able to get into the sites that were telling truthful information or they actually found further disinformation and that's the big problem with Google Trends that's why it cannot say opinion polling in terms of determining or predicting elections but we can see it can be used sa campaign managers should have been able to use it to see where the interest was going because it can be it shows sub regions where interest was growing so that's where people could have gone they could determine where house to house was still needed or further information could have been pushed with regards to the Lenny Kiko campaign so it's more for helping to push the campaign rather than determining its outcome or could it have been the Lenny camp being in their own echo chamber just multiplying their own messages I suppose or social media posts that's possible as well if because it aggregates it so it also cannot determine where the searches are coming from so yes it could be just one camp doing the searches but then it's also very hard to do since it aggregates all searches so it's very hard for one camp to also influence the number of searches but yes it could also be pushed that way and I think in some instances because of the misunderstanding of google trends that's actually what they tried to do yeah Prof Barrios mabalik ako sa inyo kasi maraming di ba tinawag ng false Asia yung false Asia did you feel as a professional did you feel how did you feel about it about how if the poll does it go your way it's false I mean kung baga parang binaliwala yung shensya na maaring bumasok doon sa pagawa ng survey I cannot say ah there's something wrong with the methodology of any pollsters in general because if you look at their websites the methodology is supposedly statistically sound so I don't have any problem with that I think what is the more crucial thing that we should examine here is the coverage of representatives that they are trying to analyze and false Asia is open about this that they were not able to represent A, B and so on and uncertain demographics because recent polls surveys outside the country realize that the voting preferences would actually vary depending on socio demographic profile social economic class is just one age gender, location and many others contributes to the voting preferences voters preferences of a candidate by not being able to thoroughly represent certain segments of segments of the voting population there are some questions or issues that we need to look at on the validity of the results however kung ako yung doon sa candidate, sa mga nagkakamping I will take it as is and then play on what are the sentiments actually reported were actually covered in the survey because DE for example is the biggest part of the population kung ako yung magkakamping doon sila yung tatargetin ko kasi ito yung sentiments nila at the moment kahit na sila lang yung narepresent doon I'll make it a point that yung kanilang aspirations so yun yung sa tingin ko magiging take but hindi kung sino yung nananalo sino yung hindi nananalo kasi yung poll surveys is based on opinion on perception and perception can easily change kung nyare yung nakita mo lang si VP Lenny na na very humble very honest or whatever it will easily change your mind so yung data na naku-collect sa poll surveys I don't think it's very stable because it's based on perception however it gives us a clue a direction kung papano dapat natin strategize para makuha natin yung sentimento nung nakakarame basically so are you saying hindi nimble enough yung campanya nila VP Lenny to mind what those surveys indicated mukhang kulang sa tingin ko right sure nothing they could have been using it pero kulang kasi yun ang tumututok tayo doon sa pag valiwalan ng surveys kaisa sa paggamit ng survey para to our advantage in campaigning yes I agree it looks like they started to pay attention to what the surveys were saying and even what Google Trends was saying towards the end of the campaign they began the campaign first they began late because of the decision the late decision to run and then they were using at first very traditional approaches to campaigning when the other one had a head start I mean they never seized it from 2016 onwards plus Cambridge Analytica also had the practice of the Trump campaign so they knew what they were getting they knew what to look for they knew how to strategize and even when it comes to the disinformation one of the things that was kind of frustrating for us in check.ph we were doing fact checking but then they left it to us to do the fact checking hindi sinagot ng Lenicamp yung disinformation against them they let us try to correct it but then as we said earlier there was already a mindset that had been placed there by the early social influencers of the other camp so it was very hard to combat that already and then sana sinagot nila instead of going the line for example what we were seeing in the polls that they were saying we should have already ceased the negativity even if everything they were saying was true maybe that part of showing attempts at historical revisionism and all the tax evasion they could have left it to the fact checkers and spread the positive message instead of using there's a lot of quotes saying when she's calling BBM a liar and that actually worked against her so those things they should have listened they should have done more social listening I think in their campaign which was effectively used well anyway this is at the other camp but okay we will still have an open forum but ang dami talagang masakit ang loob so this surge of we saw these grounds late in the day but still it's there so this is my question anong kaya ang gagawin natin sa ano ang dapat sa kanila dito mong nakikita kasi nakilangan talaga ang planning hindi pwede yung nag-decide ka lang tapos kamanalo ka big lang ganon ka-blame doesn't go naman to VP Lenny for that she was really forced into it but how do we harness this volunteerism that came out during the campaign of VP Lenny and where what is the task of the opposition now for me the first thing that should be addressed is based on social listening we see that there's a lot of acceptance to the historical distortion historical revisionism so it's really as Lenny also said it's an education crisis and I think those who started there were a lot of initiatives on voter's education I hope na hindi yun overnight initiative but all those all those NGO civil society groups just hademic groups who had come together for voter's education that they continue that until at least for the next 6 years at the very least so that in the same way that the other camp had harnessed social listening from 2016 let's do that now until for the next 6 years and not put our guard down not pag-election lang hindi yung pag-suppot ka lang sa election exactly and I think even for for fact-checkers there were several of our members who were doing fact-checking but they were really focused at the time on pandemic fact-checking we only shifted to election related fact-checking in January while the tick-talkings and the YouTube social influencers were already there from 2019 and that was under the radar because it's very hard to track video so this was going on and we also came in kind of late you wanted to add more no that's okay so those two are feeling quite depressed can channel their efforts to this advocacy yes June I agree I think what's I know na talo tayo but I think there's something good that happened here to be to be accurate I think towards the end I think the BP Lenny did and that's why they were trying a certain socio-economic class ang problema yung mga talagang die-hard BBM di na mga convert talagang nanduna sila but there's a ground swell of a lot of those who were either passive or don't care about politics now they become politically aware and I think the social activism that's been generated by the Lenny campaign for several things number one to correct facts so I think should continue unfortunately there's a lot of work that needs to be done NGOs such as Rachel's group and even traditional media should continue with that in fact that's one of our advocacy in the KBP right now but more than that I think the activism should continue to make sure that this new government that comes in will do its job properly in other words magbabantay tayo ngayon dapat that this activism should now be channeled towards making sure that this government does its work properly kung mayayong tayong makikita ang corruption issues dyan I think those should be brought up right away and parang babantay natin kung bagong that's what should happen this activism that we've should continue to do its work in that how about mainstream media and traditional media being also demonized and being portrayed as the source of fake news and how do we combat this that actually helped the spread of the disinformation it made disinformation channels it allowed them to easily come in why because since 2016 the state players have been trying to undermine the credibility of media there's been a constant attack on mainstream media that has also produced a chilling effect on the journalists so for example what we don't see or what is not being answered by fact checkers like us are actually the troll attacks on journalists who come out with news reports so there are some who despite all the troll attacks and what not threats they continue to work but there are several they do self-censorship because they now are afraid of what can happen to them and then of course there are media owners who I think are the most affected by the chilling effect because the last thing they want is an ABSCBN happening to them and I think that's where the problem lies that the media owners themselves are affected or have been chilled in that sense that they don't want journalists to be as aggressive as they normally are in terms of covering corruption in terms of reporting anomalies et cetera and that's the sad part now if there is there's a public swell of support on media it will be braver to enable them to do its job but there has to be they have to feel because the media has to feel that the public wants media freedom sometimes we don't feel that unfortunately it's not as strong as in 1986 where people really valued freedom of the press so I think that's where the ground because precisely of the attempt to make them to attack them that they are biased so there's a confluence of events can this information also helps make media look biased that was part of the work of the social influencers especially on YouTube those who had already established channels that were co-opted into this campaign that was one of the strategies first is to discredit mainstream media so that's part okay there's one several questions here I'm reading from the Q&A box one here I'll try to combine them considering the gravity and impact of using AI on the future of our country now becomes important to legislate one, mandating debates and attendance thereof and air the national TV to provide Filipino voters a fair and transparent way to discern their candidates define and two, defining minimum qualifications of our candidates I'd like you to react to that but the worry is people without ethics with money will hire lawyers and contest it to the Supreme Court okay another question sa masabahin yung pagsagot nito do you also attribute the lack of crisis management communication in the part of Lenny's camp that led to negative perceptions during the campaign okay sige yan na muna siguro okay shoot alright as we said earlier the campaign came late while the attempts at this information and also the character building in the Bongbong Marcos Camp was already on its way very effective they also in terms of answering all the campaign strategies of Lenny and also some claims I wanted to bring up the four these of this information that was very much used by the Bongbong Marcos Camp that was very effective to dismiss distort, distract and dismay and it was very very effectively by that camp to dismiss, sometimes they will dismiss an allegation as that's nothing, that's not true or parang namin na ngayong binubul mas kami kami na apik kami or distort when they what they're guilty of they blame the other camp for example you remember the onion the onions being used the photoshop a picture of a rally so they're guilty of it they accuse the Lenny camp of doing the same so that's one and then distraction they change the topic they change the conversation and if it's not followed through and that was the I think lacking they were very passive in answering the distracted when distraction was used in this information a lack of speed in answering that and they left it to official fact checkers to do that and then dismay what is more insidious because it was a troll attacks against those who for example you are from the Lenny camp and you put something on your news feed there were trolls that would comment viciously on your feed whether you're a journalist or an ordinary person they had people hired to even within your own network to bad mouth you or to you know to put up the scripted troll answers so these were very tactics that we saw that were kind of effective unfortunately okay at this point I'd like to call to join our discussion see Dr. Rowena Reyes who gave the opening remarks please join our discussion and weigh in as I open the floor to questions from our viewers please put your questions in the Q&A chat box so I can read your questions should we now okay let's also please to weigh in on the results of our mentimeter poll so tingnan na natin yung ating mentimeter poll so the first question is paano mo ilalarawan ang Philippine National Elections okay so there you have it ang mga malalakke bring back Marcos to Jill disappointing heart breaking frustrating delete tick tock misinformation delete facebook okay any responses siguro din kayo na muna since I just brought you into this um yeah um um kain na nakarisebo ko na mga messages kasi tanong nilang sa mga masyado tayong broken hearted sa nangyari but listening to everyone now um and I like what Junik Dao is saying but we have to keep calm really and um and and and taking everything to become and be the voice of reason reason for our students otherwise um kung isa isa hi natin kung where we're going to get our our uh reason to believe in the elections it might not be enough to just get it from one source so um reason to continue to believe in our country yes yes so so we really have to continuously educate our our students I'm sorry I'm coming from a a a point of view of a teacher and and I'm seeing so many requests to cancel classes but really we have to keep calm and we have to continuously feed them with the right information Junik Dao thank you I'm Dany Monsinabi na wait that's not true that's not correct when if only people realize yes maybe we came in late late in the game but um but we have started something big something social movement social activism and and and I had a conversation earlier with Dr. Gigi Alfonso and yes um it will take some time before for all of us to mature and accept what happened but uh coming together and and trying to find so much uh um explanations I think kite pa pa ano we might be able to mend some broken hearts but still we have to dig deeper and and read as much as we can so that we'll understand what happened um and um the feeling of the youth we should not let it go to waste I mean you know that the enthusiasm that they had that's also our feeling yeah that's also our feeling yeah yeah you know my son does not want to have kids because of the maybe our kids are friends because that's exactly their lines really they see things different now so we have to really be careful also what we you know what what we put out what we tell them yes yes and sometimes it's not us it's just that what's out there um I heard one a resource person saying that they were they were in a pandemic lockdown for two years and what's their source right they don't read traditional media it's just social media so uh I mean I think it's really just strengthening our call for media information literacy for our students and and um to be to explain and not just you know when they say something to us and and give our personal to explain both the left and the right I mean the good and the bad so that they really fully understand right let's bring back the first image and um yes okay uh Prof Barrios gusto nyo mag comment Prof Barrios ah ang masasabi ko lang yan din yung nasasintan ko hahahaha hahahaha so tugma tugma ah and an ako din yan din yung kanyang ah ang aso lahat tayo ano kailangan natin um maging busy at di malulong sa depression you know we cannot be paralyzed by this okay let's go to the next the next uh page o jun uh want to give us more words of wisdom and inspiration actually yung yung first tan yung lahat tayo we agree with that eh although in my case um I knew that was gonna happen because we were it's related to this one because as I said earlier we were doing our own polling we did for uh pre-election surveys and uh I appreciate what what Dr. Barrios said kanina no but yung sampling namin Dr. Barrios was was pretty random we hired an expert to do our sampling and we covered the entire country but you're right at nagsurvey kami we kind of simulate ay ano uh parang election talaga we came up with some kind of a balo and we just asked the we did it you know we uh um consulted namin identified randomly sa saan region, saan provincia, saan town, saan barangay and then we started with a certain place and then we count number five so it's really random mo so papagita lang namin and they just check who they vote for it's like simulating an election so it was very predictive of the results nang kita namin as I said si si Bongbong nung nag-saanid where saan is nilalisara ang unang survey namin na sa 49% na siya kagad tapos ang trend niya pataas we were hoping nakakain si Lenny sa share ni marcos hindi marcos continue to go up because he was running a as we said a good campaign but so did VP Lenny started at 8.3% in fact umakit siya 16.2 naging 21 naging 24 and then ultimately as we saw naging 28% siya that's the final ano niya share niya at about 28% so both of them are on an upward trajectory and it was the polls were really very kind of predictive of what was going to happen that marcos will win by a landslide because he continued to to gain instead of losing followers, he continued to gain although VP Lenny also gained by even a big number nag-gain si VP Lenny na more than ano yung from 8.3 again 28% siya so nag at 20% ng gain niya si marcos unfortunately continued to gain so from 49 sa amin naging 58 pang asya di ba so nag-gain siya ng mga 9% Lenny gained more but unfortunately marcos not enough hindi siya nag-cutting to the marcos nag-gain pang asya marcos anangyari both of them gained from the others nag-imbloat sii I think hindi nga tanakawan bilang si Ping Laxone there was a lot of hope at the outset for her for Ping but all of them I think yung mga siguro mga undecided didn't the goal for those that had no chance of winning anyway Here's an interesting comment and I think also this is a time for self-examination where we did wrong so that we can better next time so agree or disagree everyone is talking about misinformation and bbm's lies not realizing that their problem is how the two camps manage perception leaders are the ones who set examples for their followers bbm chose to pull off soon choose art of war by keeping silent all the time letting the kakamping explode out of irritation the result is that many kakamping in quotation marks people with arrogance giving people facts when the class C2D didn't even need it these people need kindness which a lot of kakamping failed to represent by succumbing to their passionate hate for bbm the perception they gave to the masses arrogant, elitist and promoters of cancel culture which is psychological makes fell into the dirty trap of the dictator's son it could have pulled off Selena Gomez's tactic she called out her fans when she noticed they were becoming hurtful to other people this commenter would like to say I voted for VP but really a time to really examine also hard self examination what do you think? yeah I think I said earlier that VP should have let others explain why he is a liar why he should have kept it silent because it became we're trying to get away from the personality worry which she reinforced unwittingly by some of her comments because of the very good research on the other camp they knew how to avoid and he can easily deny it it was all his people doing all dirty work he can easily say it wasn't me and that's where I think the shortfall in terms of understanding what people were thinking communication of the messages fell apart okay, yung debate obviously di na necessary should we legislate debates require it of our candidates Prof. Marios who you want to weigh in ah siguro kailangan because dito natin talaga makikita yung tutoong dataforma ng mga kandidato kasi kamukasa sa mga senators anong maasahan natin kung hindi natin alam kung anong balak gawin sa senate so I think legislation is important pero sila din yung nandon so who will initiate the legislation so paikot-ikot katawa-tawa for sure nilang congress nabangit ka nina we should still insist na patalo na tayo di ba nabangit mo ka nina I'm sure it was nabangit mo ka nina yung tungkol sa AI and ethics and so on sa palagay ko it's about time that we revisit and update the data privacy act kasi dito papasok ito yung so I think it's about time that we update the data privacy act so somebody at least in the senate should champion the cost for looking into the ethical aspect of artificial intelligence in general so we should take on the big players Facebook Google we should we should take we should challenge them can we? no pwede kasi hindi wala ako masyadong alamyan kasi pwede at the country level meron mga specific guidelines kung ano yung mga pwede which can be a part of the data privacy act any thoughts on that rate? I would be cautious on anything that requires legislation because it can be used against the good especially when you distrust the government that's sitting they're already talking about constitutional changes earliest now it's a scary thing that after we fought for the 1987 constitution that it could be it could just be changed overnight so while there are solutions that should be looked into I don't want to jump the gun and say legislation or laws or rules are the solution there I think we have to look for a middle ground perhaps also the continuing talks with for example I see already some positives in terms of the applications like meta looking at coordinated coordinated misinformation they're doing something but I think they should do more in that regard that's where AI can come in and trace coordinated messaging so that's one area that can be further looked into and I think we have to explore others but I would step back when it comes to laws legislation here is an interesting question and observation from JC Kuey legacy media failed in its mandate with little airtime and corporate influence that content is bias and sometimes sanitized or watered out how can legacy media be more nimble and have more teeth to address pressing issues without bias and filter si Junyan dapat legacy media oh Jun na legacy media parang anong mukadaw wala na ako sa legacy media between I know that there's been a lot of criticism about we have to admit you cannot legislate what your anchor people or news people will say sometimes they have their own biases but there is a mechanism at least in the KBP for addressing that if you have a complaint against any station or any announcer or any reporter you can actually complain and that's going to be acted upon so I understand the sentiment but I think compared to between legacy or traditional media at least in the traditional media there are ombudsmen there are self-regulatory structures that addresses certain concerns about legacy media compare that with the digital media digital media is anarchy anyone can be a broadcaster anyone can be a blogger and they can say anything wala nga so you can say anything and nobody will sanction you that's the problem with digital media and we're trying to kind of group like check.com even as we're trying to point out those kinds of disinformation a lot more needs to be done because we're dealing with so much, so many bloggers so many broadcasters in digital media that can actually do a lot of damage I think the failure of ABS-CBN to get its franchise plus the legal troubles of Maria Reza have really led legacy media to be in fear the long and short answer is yes at least for broadcast and I heard is it true june? Supposedly di ba, may claim ang pamilya marco sa isang network yan baka daw buhayon nila we heard about that you heard it? that's been a long that through more information has been known since since the Marcos left alam natin that one of the big networks is supposed to be owned by Aymida and so forth I don't know what will happen to that if I ask a question from Bobby Barreo the other day because he was with that network before and he mentioned that there's some truth to that now as to what will happen with the return of the Marcos if they will reclaim that because magiging garapal yan you're opening up the ill-gotten issue again because so I don't know what will happen to that okay now here's let me bring in some more comments from our participants and audience Odeline Avicilia mam says the crisis management communication of BBM is a strategy of Trump watch our brand is crisis that is the same campaign strategy they use any comment Rachel? um I think I already mentioned it earlier about the 4Ds the dismiss, distort, distract and dismay which they used it to a maximum effect so yeah that would be my comment and they're going to continue using that I think to sustain the next six years so actually what we should be doing is as mam Rowena said earlier to increase media literacy and perhaps historical literacy as well so these are the things that we should be looking into in the next six years okay this one addressed to mam Neni and Dean Barrios Tony B. Igalinos have schools of communication notably CMC considered revisiting their curriculum and see how adjustments can be made to address disinformation in the long term the school of statistics data science program is a good partner for a consortium with media conglomerates taking active part okay on the part of the University of the Philippines the College of Mass Communication has continually been looking at its values curricula and adopting new courses regarding this information Professor Khan right here can tell you about what the journalism department has done in the communication research department where I was once connected with we are there are there are there is a particular program that addresses social media and measures social media misuse and disuse and lastly on the part of collaborating with other institutions whether within the University or outside it the University of the Philippines has been very very aggressive in doing that check.ph is just one example of them I can name a few more but then I will take more time and then lastly about artificial intelligence we in the University are looking particularly at that and looking at the ethical considerations for this pretty soon we will have a center that will study artificial intelligence that by itself is not just a physical center it will also be a cross disciplinary interdisciplinary center which will which crosses the arts engineering the sciences and of course the social science the social sciences thank you. Wonderful ayan that's so much to look forward to dapat mag-aral ulip yung mga nanjan sa legacy media di ba June anyway we have time for one last question and we'll make this a fast round for everyone on the panel ok here it is if there's one thing you can change to improve the national elections I would have wanted to ask the one about robin padilya leading the senatorial race as compared to chell jok who is in number twenty seven 15 ba? 16 siguro yun muna bago ano because the survey failed to track data prof barrios or rachel would you like to comment? bago yung last question o sigin robin was in the top 12 I think robin in the survey was in the top 12 number one we've seen similar happenings in the past for example grace pa nung tumakusik grace pa senator nobody predicted her to be number one in fact at the start nasa number 22 atas nung bago mag-election na pumasok siya sa top 12 I think pagdating sa election siguro yung sampling natin na pukawa yung mga CD I don't know what happened but in the case of robin paraming nag-hasterd ng gas market big lang umakit si robin kasi endorse daw siya ninyu 30 the last minute prof barrios yung si pulko has been consistently number one mga magsaks number three I think it's a combination of the fact that Loren really spent a lot of money in the campaign number two, hindi siya endorse no si tulfo was not endorse by iglesia I think if tulfo got 2 million from the those factors came into play hindi siya nag number one because hindi siya iglesia endorsed but I think in the case prof barrios a lot of people are saying it's because the president endorsed him to show you malakaspanig endorse in power ng president I mean for him to be able to get tolentino and Bato and go win senators I mean that shows you how influential his endorsement is okay prof barrios ah siguro isa lang that may dadadag ko yung underdog ng mga Pilipino na kung sino yung underdog and perceived to be inaape ay siya yung pinapaburan kasi everybody's talking about anong gagawin niya don and so on although yung popularity endorsement and so on work nandun na siya but being number one I think nakuhan niya yung puso ng masang Pilipino na yung underdog ang papaburan natin okay so in closing for all five of four of you rather ano ang gusto niyong palitan para mapabute to improve our elections quick quick round Rach? Rachel? I think that rather than I saw some comments regarding I don't think that we should depend on the depth neither for teaching history nor for teaching but what we have to do now is to train the teachers whether even if it's outside class seminars on helping public school teachers even private school teachers teach this to courses so that we could help more people understand really what's going on and not fall for the participation that's happening on TikTok or YouTube I think this is a starting point but a lot more has to be done I'm sorry I suddenly lost my connection Prof. Barrios Siguro kung merong papalitan try to put more regulatory policies on the conduct of surveys kasi may possibility din kasi na yung mga surveys will lead to the bandwagon and so on and so forth so kailangan yung design yung methodology ng surveys follows a certain guidelines maybe by professional organizations which is what they're trying to do in Australia now they're trying to formulate guidelines ito yung mga dapat natin gawin this should be the basic requirements of a valid survey designed for all surveys and so on and so forth Thank you Prof. Barrios June and then Sidin Rowena Reyes naman after you Seth this is the opinion of Jun Nick Daunat of the Network Okay Anyway I think ang pinaka pet pib code we've discussed a lot about the disinformation and I think that's been discussed enough but ang pinaka pet pib code nipis sa election and for our political system is the issue of dynasty I think kung kung ang papalitan I think it's already in the constitution I think there should be an enacting law to really implement anti-dynasties I mean, makikita mo ngayon it's a farce there's supposed to be anti-dynasties pero palit lang ng palet it's the same it's not the same person but the same family in fact ang daming parang ginawang enterprise ang politics I think that's that's number one that needs to be done in fact if you look at the history of the Philippines nasirat tayo ang trajectory ng Pilipinas nung Marcos decided to perpetuating self-empower unfortunately Bipilayan it didn't didn't if you recall the Philippines was number 2 only to Japan panawin ni Marcos and because we did not continue that that cycle of selecting leaders properly corruption creptin and look where we are right now we're na overtake na tayo patibiat na miyata at laos na mauna pa sa atin and unfortunately that's what people in power that's the anti-dynasty thing the constitution provides for it but hindi na implement I don't know if that's going to be our legislators because si lamis mo ang impacted dito in fact that's a policy of Bipilayan only one person in the family runs but as you can see now there will now be two billionaires in the senate there will be two kaitanos in the senate there will be two astrabas in the senate my god this is going to be and the province says cities exactly lahat mayor, vice mayor magkapati mag-anak hindi from the low maraming salamat to sa grandstand sila sila sila nalang yun no our political situation is not going to change unless we we actually implement that anti-dynasty provision in the constitution properly that's number one I agree we should legislate debates and on the issue of AI and all that mahirapya legislation but I think we can work with the private social media platforms Facebook and Twitter and all that I think we can work with them so that they can they can have better governance especially when it comes to to a certain extent nag-agree naman sila but I think there's a lot more to be done with that I think that's what I have to say now baka we can focus our efforts there yung mga kabataan sure baka pwede sila doon mag-focus ng efforts nila ok, Dean Reyes ako I have two things one is as I said earlier MIL media information literacy and second is siguro yung voters education ako I'm guilty I started a year just a year ago but if we had it you know a constant then perhaps mas may merong tayong impact na nag-gawa sa ating mga sojante so yun MIL and voters education every year not just a year before the election it should be there it should be constant it should be strong thank you the fight is just beginning we thank you very much we thank very much all our speakers I know this is a very hectic season for all of you we had to overcome as well your depression and the sadness we appreciate that you have shared your wisdom in our webinar today we're now sharing the evaluation poll results and as expected a great percentage of our viewers have given very high marks for our panel so ayun po ang mga questions na sasagutin ninyo there are five questions and these are the choices for each question strongly agree agree, disagree and strongly disagree so the first question the panelists demonstrated thorough knowledge of the topic the panelists were able to properly organize their thoughts in answering questions posed by the participants the panelists spoke clearly and audibly the panelists used appropriate language with technical jargans adequately explained and the panelists contributed to the perspectives and knowledge on post-election analysis okay, as mentioned earlier we're now launching our post test so you can assess your progress in knowledge and understanding acquired from this webinar okay so we that will be also on your screens at this point we will keep the post test open in the background as we proceed with our program now it is my distinct pleasure to introduce to you the president of the Philippines Communication Society and the vice president for public affairs of the University of the Philippines system to give the synthesis and closing remarks please welcome Dr. Elena E. Perna thank you very much sis and thank you for to our resource persons here at this 10th episode of our national forum series on communication and democracy had our resource persons unpack campaign dynamics polling and voting trends importantly the aftermath of our national elections two days after our national polls Anyare is the question in the minds of many voters and observers of Philippine elections this years Philippine elections had the highest turn out of voters with 65.7 million Filipinos casting their votes it was also the fastest in transmitting election returns however the reports of voters having had to wait 5 6 even up to 12 hours before they successfully cast their votes and also reports about the possible disenfranchisement of about 1.1 million voters due to anomalies and irregularities such as 1800 vote counting machines breaking down or malfunctioning delayed or non replacements of SD cards and the absence of technicians in the precincts the COMLEC the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the Philippine National Police characterized last Mondays election as generally peaceful and safe despite reports of intimidation red tagging violence and failure of elections in certain areas of the country COMLEC sportsman admitted such incidents but called them isolated and comparing this year's elections with the 2019 midterm elections the AFP said it monitored only 15 election related violence nationwide compared to 60 such incidents in 2019 it is against that background that we had our last webinar it began with Far Eastern University's Institute of Arts and Sciences Dean Dr. Rowena Reyes wise words how do you mend a broken heart she asked she rightfully recommends participation in a forum like this afternoon's discussion to understand what happened to gain insight on what are trustworthy sources of information I agree with Dean Wang that the thorough understanding of political communication ethical political campaigning is what our students of communication and media need thank you Dean Wang for pointing out how important it is for us Filipinos to continue moving forward with this new form social movement our moderator says Orenya Drillon then engaged our resource persons Professor Erniel Barrios who is with the statistic with the school of statistics the UP school of statistics Professor Rachel Kahn of the UP college of mass communication and project coordinator of check.ph and Ruperto Dikdao Jr president of Manila Broadcasting Company and the chair of the KBP in a round table discussion Victor Andres or Dindo Manhit who is a founder and managing director of StratBase who was supposed to be with us this afternoon but unfortunately you know his father passed away our condolences to him to him and his family he shared Dindo shared with us a couple of several slides a couple of which were used by sess to jumpstart the round table discussion I will do my very best to synthesize the main points but my strong advice to you viewers is to review this episode which will remain available in the TBUP YouTube channel one did survey results correctly predict the partial and unofficial vote counts for the presidential vice presidential and senatorial races the answers are both yes and no there is no evidence that the methodology of credible survey groups are questionable secondly the campaign team of winning candidates Marcos and Duterte did a good job of selling the brand unity using survey data to define the winning combination of Marcos and Duterte thirdly the effective public relations campaign integrated this information strategies one evidence of this are the data showing the disconnect between what voters saw as essential values of a leader and the characteristics of the winning presidential candidate Mr. Bong Bong Marcos fourthly this year's winning presidential campaign showed the utility of data mining strategy or investing on big data from the social media to extract insights which are then used to create and share this information and content that can be seen in hyperpartisan websites Facebook pages and various social media accounts this strategy is data driven it is scientific but these are used to condition the minds of voters winning candidate Marcos had an early start in using these data mining strategies and unfortunately for losing candidate Robredo the campaign used them too late TikTok in fact now is the propagandist's new campaign tool to win elections fifthly the successful creation of an alternate universe was important because these are the ones that contain the misinformation the algorithms of social media created traps created this fake news universe number six is the basis for the groups protesting the 2022 election results was there a mass cheating involved considering the difference between Marcos and Robredo being linear from professor Barrios we learn about the central limit theorem in statistics and that nothing is unusual with the proportion it is as expected number seven however there is a possibility that in the course of transmission of data to the transparency server could be that could be where the distortion lies a code could capture the data but this may be revealed if it happens by the random manual audit of Namfrel and the manual encoding of COCs by the PPCRV evidence of anomalies will be when you compare the results of the manual count and the COMLX random audit with with the with the data that have already come in the eighth point lapit na Google Trends cannot replace polling as it measures interest people looking for information you know is what Google Trends can track but it cannot track the kind of information that they find there is no way to determine if the information that these individuals seek and find are verifiable information or actually this information Google Trends can show where interest is in order to push the campaign rather than predict election outcomes unfortunately and this is the ninth point the camp of Robredo was not nimble enough in using Google Trends and survey information for their campaign purposes nor did they address the false information and historical revisionism early enough I'd like to end with some lessons and ways forward still coming out of the discussions this afternoon Basi sa mga leksyon ng halalan claro na ang ilangan gawin ng komilik para sa susunod ng mga election number one we need new machines para walang breakdown pangalawa these machines must be tested before election day and thirdly komilik must anticipate anomalies and problems coming out of vote buying the simple lack of pens and secrecy folders the closure of precincts and before 7pm the presence of armed police inside polling places and the spread of false information sometimes by government officials themselves and then para sa ating lahat tayong mga mama mayan ano ang kailangan na ating tugunin at glowin number one regarding false information particularly historical revisionism we should advocate for continuing fact checking fight historical revisionism correct the whitewashing importantly address those of us who are in the academy address the educational crisis that begins in our basic education pangalawa bantayan natin ang ating bagong gobierno be watchful against corruption number three we should all understand and talk about artificial intelligence and privacy issues in fact there must be somebody to champion the privacy champion the cost for ethical artificial intelligence fourthly support our free press the non-renewal of the ABSCBN franchise the harassment and attacks of journalists and conventional mass media resulted in a chilling effect resulted in self-censorship and all of these contributed to the rise of this information there must be a public swell of support for media so that our journalists and our media owners become braver panglima ko mahalin natin ang ating bayan pagtibay natin sa proceso ng demokrasya patuloy tayong magpakita ng malasakit at kawilos tayo para sa kapwan natin nasabi nang ang namulat hindi na muli pipikit hindi natin kailanman hahaya ang makatulog muli ang pagasang magising this webinar is the last series of the Philippines communication societies national forum on communication and democracy on behalf of the PCS and the UP system I thank our moderator and resource persons today and in the nine previous webinars and especially you our audiences our dear communication and media students faculty and professionals please watch this webinar again because these are indeed educational resources not just for those in communication and media but more importantly for the general public para sa patuloy na pag mulat natin lahat pumunta lamang kayo sa tvup.ph at bisitahin ang YouTube channel ng TVUP Maraming salamat sa inyong lahat patuloy nyo kaming sundan dito sa Philippines communication society www.filscomsoc.org Maraming salamat muli at magandang hapon Maraming salamat can you hear me? Maraming salamat Dr. Elena Perna napakagandan ng sinabi nyo at medyo na ibsan ang sama ng loob ng marami sa atin my airpods bumigain sa atangalan ng ating webinar as you can see we will be showing on your screens the post test results there has been a distinct increase in knowledge and understanding of the issues based on the post test results those who have actively participated will get the most out of this interactive program. As mentioned this is the 10th and last webinar of the national forum on communication and democracy Philippine elections 2022 please stay tuned for updates on upcoming projects and activities in the PCS website or Facebook page if you would like to watch this or all the other previous webinars in playback all the webinars in this series will be available for viewing at your convenience at the TVUP YouTube channel this formally closes the national forum on communication and democracy Philippine elections 2022 ako po si Seth Orenya Drillon on behalf of the Philippines communication society let us strengthen our country's democratic foundations through communication mabuhay ang Bansang Pilipinas mabuhay po kayong lahat at ituloy po let's continue the good fight magandang hapon sa inyong lahat