 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim sawness and dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm as we're taking a look ahead at the Thanksgiving week of games. We got rivalry week in college football We got Thanksgiving across Vienna found some big games on Sunday as well We're gonna break all those down in a Thanksgiving betting preview Palooza here As we're jamming everything into one podcast for this week. My name is Jim sawness I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by Ed Fang you can find him over at the power Rank comm and on Twitter at the power rank Ed happy Tuesday to you happy Thanksgiving week to you how you doing today? I'm doing pretty good, but Jim. I got to tell you I think I'm a bad person. Oh, what's this? So we were sitting around last Saturday, you know pretty happy after Michigan got the win against Indiana And then we turned it over to the Cal Stanford game Yeah, and you know unfortunately Cal scored a late touchdown to win that game And so these stoic-faced kids on the the axe committee on both sides, right? Have you seen this? No, okay? So there's an axe committee because Stanford and Cal play for an axe, right? So the axe is is on this. It's kind of you know, it's kind of like a Like a picture frame and there's an axon and that's what they play for And at the end of the game like the axe committees for both schools like go down to the field and and essentially stare at each other Yeah, which is probably one of the most comical things at least that's what my non Stanford and Cal friends think it's the most I think it is comfortable too because you're on this axe committee You're not allowed to watch the end of the game, which was quite a game You're just sitting there like grumpy and staring at the other people on the other axe committee So my wife's an undergrad there and she swears it's a it's a big deal to be on the axe committee Seems pretty dumb to me. But anyways, so you you know Cal wins they uncuff the axe And they have to turn it over to From the Stanford people and I have to turn it over to the Cal people Yeah, and the Cal people are elated and they go running off and and obviously the Stanford person. I'm pretty grumpy But this but this axe committee gym, they're not like athletes. It's not the cross-country It's not like people like you who played sports in high school. They look like they plucked them straight out of the double e-lab They're sprinting over to the Cal part of of wherever their fans are and I was like, I think they're gonna bite it And five seconds later they bit it and I got up danced So happy that they bit it. Oh My gosh that person, you know what Ed though that can be way worse because we're talking Minnesota, Wisconsin They play for a real axe. They play for Paul but hey, this is a real axe It's just on a you know, like a like a plaque. There's nothing restraining this axe It's a real axe that can hurt someone They don't let some double e's out of the computer lab like hold it though, right? It's like no no they let the like the football players and like I'm always worried about it and Like I grew up in Minnesota. So I have a long a long history of following this rivalry I remember vividly watching from my parents basement. There was a game. It was in the metrodome in Minnesota was up and Lou Holtz was talking in the ESPN studio about how you know Minnesota had it locked up, you know and Of course Wisconsin blocks a punt returns her for a touchdown wins and In a chaotic fashion runs across the field to the other sidelines Minnesota one the year before they grabbed the axe I'm like sobbing some a little kid and I'm upset about this and they're running around the field with this unrestrained axe And I'm like yo yo yo something not good's gonna happen here. So like It's not as K. It's not as comedic But it is frightening as what happened as in like I feel like that would be hilarious to watch and predicting It makes it better, but Minnesota, Wisconsin gets real man Yeah, well Stanford Cal is pretty real too, man. That's true. There's some history there I've heard a couple a couple things I suppose about that rivalry for sure But I didn't realize they played for an axe it makes sense, you know given given the mascot, but like didn't realize that that's fun Wait, why does it make sense given the mascot? Oh because of the tree. Yeah, but see that's the comical thing They've been playing for an axe way longer than the tree, which is actually not Stanford's mascot It's the Stanford's mascot. So why did they play for an axe then? I have no idea But what started this axe committee thing like how did that become yeah, how do you say hey undergrads? Why don't you not watch the end of the game and sit and stare all grumpy faced at yeah a bunch of dorks from the other school? So anyways after after that happened I went up and and went out to dinner with my family Yeah, and then and then my little one was like, why do you play for an axe if you're the tree? Which is just great from an eight-year-old. Yeah, that's super funny. I love that and I Don't think you're a bad person. I would laugh at that too. I think that is fully valid You have validated my life. Jim's honest. So yeah, so I'm gonna like Expunge you of all I don't know if that's the right word to use whatever. I'm gonna do it Expunge you of all guilt Edving you've been you've been freed from this conscious chain and you're good to go because I would also laugh at that And it sounds hilarious to me and I want to find video of that after we do this today We are gonna jam in both college football and the NFL because of Thanksgiving weekend I need big traditions in the Fang household on Thanksgiving Well, my the rest of my family all left this week actually so I'm here alone this week, which is actually nice Yeah, but a quiet. Yeah some stuffed on and then I'm gonna go see my parents later So no nothing big. Okay. So less chaos than usual So you are the opposite of literally everyone else when it comes to Thanksgiving. Well, this is this is rare This is the first okay, so still okay. Nice. We'll enjoy. What about you? My sister and her husband live like 45 minutes away. So they're gonna come to us They have a new cat and the new cat apparently not well behaved enough to allow for hosting yet My fiance is also very allergic to cats, which would not go well So they'll be coming up here. My whole family is in Minnesota. So it's kind of weird that just so happens my sister and her husband live 45 minutes away Over in Ithaca so works out pretty well. We've done the last couple of years and looking forward to it And you know watching some football playing some DFS betting a little bit, you know What will be better than that? We're gonna break down this slate of games here in just one second But before we do that want to give you a quick reminder We're doing this usually twice per week here on covering the spread with a college football in an NFL show that will have to change as the NFL Or as the college football calendar switches over but to make sure you get those podcasts right as they are posted Make sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts can be Spotify Apple podcast Stitcher anywhere you find podcasts you can find us and if you're an Apple podcast Make sure you leave a rating and review because those dudes help us out quite a bit as well Now before we dive in to this week got to take a look back at last week at both the college football in the NFL What went wrong? What went right? And I think last week pretty pretty good, especially on the NFL side So let's break that down and then dive into Thanksgiving slate Covering the past All right, we'll start things off here on covering the past with the college football edition of Covering the spread we talked with Ian Cameron at Bobano and we talked about the gray cup and felt bad for Ian Because it seemed like the tiger cats didn't have their best performance on in that game He was talking on Twitter about the offensive line a defensive line He's not showing up met some the over a 51 points and it finished at 45 when a peg won that one And it didn't seem like it was all that competitive So our condolences to Ian for his tiger cats coming up short But it's not like a good season for them overall so cooters them and making it that far also talked about the over on 57 The over at 57 for Penn State versus Ohio State He did get two points of closing line value there close at 59 But it did wind up going under there Ian wanted the under on 45 points for Texas A&M versus Georgia And that game did go under so got that one just 32 points for Texas A&M Georgia So under pretty easily there. He wanted Temple plus 10 and a half against Cincinnati Cincinnati barely scored 10 and a half points by themselves a temple lost by two there So they covered pretty easily They were down 15 at one point They didn't need to scram on the fourth quarter, but they do did wind up covering pretty easy So temples defense played really well helped Ian nail that one and you mentioned the under on Michigan State versus Rutgers I think this was a beautiful situation where the process and the results aligned perfectly You wanted the under on 44 points And you said it was because you weren't sure Rutgers was gonna score and you didn't think the Michigan State offense to score 44 by themselves Rutgers did not score Michigan State scored 27 So if the exact route you had mentioned it has to feel good knowing that the exact thought process is how things play out Yeah, absolutely. It was it was nice to get it. It was relatively easy I don't think you can ever expect a team to not score and Rutgers did have some yards in that game I think they were you know, they were about to kick a field goal pretty late in the game gone in penalty and decided to punt so Just just another thing to help seal the deal there Absolutely, you didn't need the help, but it doesn't hurt that is for sure So good things across the college slate last week and the NFL side We had Donnie Seymour on to preview week 12. You can find him on Twitter at right side VP Donnie wanted Seattle plus one and a half and I think Seattle might have been favored by the time that one closed I also had the under on the Eagles team total at 24 points and both those hit a pretty big way a Health that there was men's renews that broke later in the week with Alshon Jeffrey not playing Nelson Aguilar not playing Brandon Brooks Had anxiety issues during the game so you couldn't go so the Eagles were definitely shorthanded But I think I don't even know if Brooks had played that full game or if Alshon had played that game But they had hit they would have hit they were they were brutal there for sure So kudos to Donnie on yelling that one and that's rough because not a good Seattle defense Jared Reed got hurt during that game and They still didn't do anything And like again, I know like I think that like I think I for some reason I follow a lot of Philly people on Twitter There have been some like wild things about Carson Wentz this week as far as like Cut him like people have taken this way too far. I thought that Like back in like Wentz's first year I thought that people were getting too excited about him, you know and stuff and I don't think the pendulum could have swung anymore where Like yeah Carson Wentz missed some really bad throws on Sunday. That's true But you also to remember the context of you know guys are not getting open. He is under pressure pretty consistently and Like it's the same thing with Jared Gough people are not considering the context And I think that people are being too critical of Carson Wentz when you consider the situation around him. It's just wild Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think you got to be a little bit patient here I mean, I think there are some broader questions with this Philadelphia organization. You win the Super Bowl and they're pretty much disappointed since then No longer kind of have the mantle as the you know, the most analytic savvy team as well either as Baltimore Has definitely taken that over But yeah, a lot of questions and Philly So we'll see how they answer this. Yeah, and people love to overreact NFL So I shouldn't be surprised people are being so critical people love to overreact in football, right? Right exact I mean in the sense that we have 12 or 16 games to evaluate these teams. It's it's it's it's just it's just naturally geared towards Overreaction, absolutely small samples lead lend themselves to that and it makes a lot of sense the other game we discussed here was Cowboys against Patriots and Donnie mentioned the Cowboys plus six and a half you said your numbers had it at a four and a half point game and It wound up being a four-point game So, you know, you said that you didn't want to bet it because of Bill Belichick because of Jason Garrett and I think that also played itself out weirdly because Jason Garrett has an affinity for field goals while he's down Seven points. So, you know, I think that I understand the thought process and not betting it despite seeing your numbers there But hey, your numbers are right. I think that's good But maybe your numbers know Jason Garrett doesn't want a gun for a tie game went down seven potentially I mean to the extent that that manifests in the margin of victory in games, maybe Yeah, but I I think that's more on the side of the subjective adjustments afterwards and you know I feel pretty good about staying away from it I think, you know, if New England could have just a little bit of a better game against a pretty bad Dallas defense Yeah The margin could have been a lot could it could have been bigger and they could have covered that Yeah, exactly. And I think that you know when we talked about it, too It wasn't clear that Muhammad Sunoo and Philip Dorsett were both gonna miss that game And if they if one of them had played we may have seen the pagers move the ball a lot easier You despite the weather. So I think that was Definitely a factor there, too, but the numbers are right. So at least that's that's definitely good. There we go Donnie mentioned the Jets Raiders over 46 and a half points. The Jets did their part That's for sure. The Raiders benched Derek Carr in the third quarter. So Kind of killed Donnie's odds there. I think it's a good process play. I like that that one, too The wind actually wound up being pretty high and the Jets still scored 34 points So the results didn't hit there, but I thought the process was good by Donnie You also had the Browns team total over 27 and a half points and the game over 44 and a half points Both those are wins as well We saw Baker Mayfield break out in the first half of that game and Ryan Fitzpatrick moved the ball against the Browns defense. So I think All around really awesome week by both Ian and Donnie and a really solid week where the process I think played out pretty well any final thoughts for you Ed from week 12 NFL our week 13 a college football Yeah, I mean we got talked about the Ravens. I mean they were killing the Rams last night fourth and nine There's a penalty on the Rams that gives them an extra four yards and they pull the punt team Throw the offense back on convert fourth and four, which is absolute. You should absolutely go for fourth and four near midfield they convert score another touchdown and as scary as the offense is it's even scarier when you have a coach that understands the right calls on fourth down, right and Yeah Doing it all year. It's not even just understanding it's having a coach who is willing to do it Because like a lot of coaches understand it I think and they've talked about this But they may not actually go through with it and I think that that's that's the next level and John Harbaugh has shown that he will follow through on that like he'll listen to what the analytics say and It's so hard like if you grow up your entire life as a football coach being told one thing To be told something else and to act against and to act in favor of that So I understand why coaches are hesitant. I get it, but to actually go through with that is is incredible I also want to talk about the Ravens defense just briefly while we're talking about them ever since the Marcus Peters train They've been gross you look at the per drop-back expected points added numbers by quarterbacks against them Russell Wilson negative point two five Tom Brady negative point one two Ryan Finley negative point six five Deshaun Watson negative point four one Jared golf negative point one nine So they've all been negative point one two or worse Tom Brady's been the best Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson having terrible days Like Jared golf was never on the field. They played they had three snaps in the third quarter So it was just a wild game But when you match up an offense that hits a hot streak with a defense that's playing as well as they are Brutal things are gonna happen and we're gonna talk more about the Ravens our preview for this week too because They're just kind of a wild team at this point. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely And and they're not you know historically that you know, I mean they're not historically the best team in the NFL right now They're just they're just on a heater and yeah, and they'll they'll sell it down at some point I also want to mention I think two weeks ago when I talked about wanting Houston Plus four and a half at Ravens or wherever I was two weeks. Yep I had kind of mentioned the past defense and that EFF grades were really good Back then they're passing success rate after my adjustments for schedule. They were 18th. They're up to 12th now Yep, which definitely is confirms what exactly what you were saying. So yeah, everything is working right now It's the kind of thing that you want to work in the playoffs But you know if you get it a couple months early then then you go with it Absolutely, so we'll see how things play out and we'll talk more about the Ravens in our preview But before we do that during Thanksgiving week We are hooking up our podcast listeners with number fire premium for just five dollars in your first month Whether you're betting up Thanksgiving setting your DFS lineups or just ready for the fantasy playoffs Premium covers all the bases normally as much as 49 99 Try premium today for just five dollars when you sign up with the promo code touchdown That is promo code touchdown Visit number fire comm slash premium for details promo code only applies for first-time users through the end of cyber Monday again Number fire comm slash premium and that promo code is touchdown Let's dive in now to the thanksgiving slate and get you set for all the college and NFL action coming up this weekend Covering the present All right, no covering the future for today. We're just gonna go through nine games. We're gonna give our leans on these We're gonna go kind of rapid-fire normally well We want to focus on the process and we're gonna give reasons why we think we're leaning different ways in these games Or why we're not leaning certain ways, but we're gonna go a little bit more rapid-fire for today So and we're gonna start things off here with one a game that you have may have some interested That is Ohio State versus Michigan. I called it a game, but it's actually the game Ohio State a nine-point favorite now at Fandall Sportsbook the total is 50 and a half. What do you see with this game to know how state in Michigan? Yeah, it's been interesting to look at Ohio State's data just from this year So I I there's three components to my model and one of them is just data from this year So in terms of points so margin victory in particular success rate and then yards per play So I take those I adjust each of them individually for strength schedule put them back together in weights that I have found to be appropriate Ohio State's the best team in the country and not only the best team in the country There's three points on a neutral site better than LSU so They've really been good. Is there some small sample size and regression to the mean coming probably But Ohio State's been that good Michigan has also been very good since the second half at Penn State Putting up some big margins of victory and playing like the team that we thought They could be heading into the season But Ohio State is it has just been on another level so far so this is my numbers My numbers like Ohio State by about 11. This is not a play for me I think Michigan's been playing well enough and it's consistent with what we thought this preseason to stay away from this game But that's but but it should hopefully it'll be a decent close game I also this one is a stay away and Part of it's because of Ohio State last week because you know they they're facing Penn State and Penn State's a good defense They're a 10th in SP plus according to Bill Connolly and ESPN Michigan is fifth and that was kind of the first year that Ohio State looked really mortal to me And it made sense. They were played facing a tough team now they're on the road facing a really tough defense and I think that that is enough where it's hard for me to feel really good about Ohio State as a nine-point favorite and The reason I don't want to go towards Michigan is I think that Shay Patterson's ball security issues frightened me When he's facing a guy like chase young, I don't know if that's like rational or me overreacting But like that's a major factor for me and it's it scares me to to back Michigan. So I think this is a stay away, too I think the line is very good. Yeah, it's not irrational I think someone's done a study showing that a big portion of Fumbles by the offense occur on like strip sacks or something more because it's just like a play where the quarterbacks Not expecting it. You can get a strip sack It tends to be that the offense tender tends to recover those more just there because there's more offensive players on that side of the line of scrimmage So there's definitely something to be said there and I think there is some data to back up what you are saying, Jim All right, so we're both staying away from this one, but should be a fun game and I'm excited to see how things play out I want to see Ohio State that offense, you know the defense has proved itself I have no more questions there, but I think this offense should be fun to watch against Michigan, too And see if they can kind of redeem themselves till last week Let's move now to Alabama versus Auburn this game not as fun I think as it would have been if two were playing but I think it's more interesting the betting perspective with no two Alabama a three and a half point favorite the total here is 50 What do you see with this one? And I think it's it's a complicated game to dissect because we don't know a lot about Matt Jones Yeah, we don't know a lot about Matt Jones But I think the thing that I don't know if I've talked about it yet this year But Alice Bama's defense hasn't been the same this year as in past years Starting in 2015 in my adjusted yards per play. They were first for three straight seasons They had a terrible season last year by dropping all the way to third and adjusted yards per play Their tenth this year by adjusted yards per play They're worse when I look at adjusted success rate and you know, Nick Saban's had his fourth defensive coordinator in five years And he's had some you know serious injuries in the front seven so That that not to knock some down a notch Auburn's offense is you know, kind of a work in progress with a true freshman quarterback at bow nicks So, yeah, I think I think it's it's going to be an interesting game. My number has Alabama by seven It requires an adjustment for two. Uh, right. I think the market's pretty fair at Alabama by four If I lean any way I'd probably lean towards Auburn just because of the defense Uh, because Auburn's defense is like the best in the nation by my adjusted yards per play Uh, so that's why I would lean there and I think that my only lean on this game I don't want to touch the spread. I think I like the under here and a lot of it is because of bow nicks Um, if you look at what bow nicks has done against top 50 defenses by sp plus this year He has 4.9 adjusted yards per attempt, which is Really bad, uh, Alabama 10th by your numbers defensively So they would certainly qualify as being a top 50 defense and it's not like all bow nicks is full You know, he's a true freshman. He's in the sec. He's facing a bunch of really tough defenses So I think this game will be low scoring. I think that the fear of bow nicks against a good defense is enough Where I can't actually bet Auburn plus three and a half But it's enough where I can go with the under here. Uh, the total's at 50. What do your numbers say about that total? Yeah, I mean my number has it at 56, but obviously again requires an adjustment Um, it's just so hard when you'd have no idea what mac jones is going to give you against the best defense in the nation Well, it are how do they compare to arkansas or against an fcs team, you know At the same point we have a mac jones so far. So we'll learn a lot about him But I think my only lean here would be uh towards the under on 50 points Let's finish up here with the battle for paul bunion's axe. It's wisconsin against minnesota wisconsin two and a half point favorite Total here is 47 and a half. What do you see in this game? Yeah, I see wisconsin being clearly the better team when I look at a justice success rate the offense is sixth in the nation Uh, and the defense is even better at third in the nation Uh, as much as I respect how much minnesota has come on lately and they have been really good. Um Oh, it was interesting, uh in the northwestern game Yeah, that uh, because I was going to tweet something snarky like Doesn't it count as a loss if you allow 22 points to to northwestern? Yeah, or whatever it was Uh, but it was a fascinating game because like I think 90 of the northwestern's yards came on three long touchdown drives Yeah So they score had three long touchdown drives and like essentially zero yards the rest rest of the game, which um, You know, if you kind of look at their yards yards per play is a very Is very very strongly correlated with with how many points you're going to score. Obviously, there's fluctuations Uh, but if you look at that, they should they should have northwestern should have scored fewer points So anyways, minnesota has been really good recently. Um, wisconsin in my mind is and in the normers mind is clearly the better team here Numbers, I think like wisconsin by six, uh, I will take the side on that Okay, I am actually really into the minnesota offense So i'm actually gonna go the other way with this one. I think I like minnesota plus two and a half and I think it's because I don't see like when looking at these two teams. I don't see it as being a big difference I think that wisconsin's defense is better, but I like minnesota's offense more We talked a lot about minnesota's defense because they faced a lot of backup quarterbacks They faced northwestern's fourth string quarterback on saturday and he put up 22 points. So wait, so what do you qualify? What's hunter johnson? He's either third string that got benched Because he played I think he's like the one and a half string He qualifies as the one and a half string So tj green is the only quarterback who has shown life this year. He got her against stanford Uh hunter johnson has been out since then right right and then hunter johnson kind of Aidan smith got hurt hurt So he got benched hunter johnson started that game against minnesota andrew marty came in He's a two-star quarterback who decommitted from all miami, ohio to go to northwestern. He's a red shirt sophomore Apparently he's been terrible in practice. So if it's his like refused to play him, uh, but played well in that game So like the minnesota narrative of facing backup quarterbacks still very true But their offense is good tanner morgan has played four games against top 50 Defenses by sp plus his adjusted yards per attempt in those four games is 12.5, which is nuts. That's awesome like that's a really good number and part of that's because Of what you've talked about where they do kind of rely on big plays and big plays can regress in a big way And they're i'm assuming their success rate numbers are not as good But when the big plays have been there all year, I still have some faith in this minnesota offense So i'm gonna i'm gonna go with minnesota plus two and a half. I understand Why um the numbers are not as into minnesota, but I just I have less faith in the wisconsin offense I guess all right. Well, so the only way i'm going to be sad about this game is of If wisconsin wins by one or two points because if they lose They will push on the nine wins. I had the year. I don't think I mentioned it on this show Yeah, so I have like two results that are bad for me in this game then So we're just hoping that it's not by one or two points. Yeah. Hey minnesota wants to blow them out I'm all happy for it. Right. I'll take an L for the you know for a push on the win total Yeah, absolutely I I will totally understand that and it's kind of like a hedge too because like the odds of that being one or two Point game not that high. So, you know, you might as well be happy regardless outside of those two circumstances So ed has uh wisconsin minus two and a half and I have minnesota plus two and a half Let's move now to the the nfl games We're gonna go through all three Thanksgiving games because why not and we're gonna go through three games on The weekend as well starting off with bears versus lions Some big movement here. Uh, the bears are now two and a half point favorites. They open at one the total is 38 and a half and I think that's a reflection of the bengal's fifth string wide receiver jeff driscoll Starting at quarterback for the lions. Uh, what do you see with this game ed? Yeah, um, what I do on my site when I have Especially when I have three games is I look at what the market would make this game Based on only the three games that they've judged jeff drisco And when I do that it makes the bears a three point favorite on the road here So I think this is a pretty fair line Uh driscoll It destroying games that this driscoll has started have a 36 success rate And to kind of put that in perspective, uh, you know, mitch biscuit and the the bears roll number has been about 40 So it would it would be the kind of the worst in the nfl given what we've seen from driscoll. Obviously, it's a small sample size Um, but uh, yeah, I think I think the line is fair at bears minus two and a half Uh, and might might even get to three. Yeah, I don't I don't want to touch this spread because this game is the weirdest game You could possibly have uh with trebisky being broken and jeff driscoll again Like this dude was moved to wide receiver by the bangles in august and then cut They kept ryan finley who was old and bad over over jeff driscoll And he has a starting quarterback. So I can't bet the lions But it's also really hard for me to bet on the trebisky right now. So I don't want to touch this game, honestly I think it stinks. Um, what's the total? It's 38 and a half. It opened at 39. It's already come down half a point um, but yeah, like Like jeff driscoll literally moved to wide receiver in august. Yeah, sorry, my number has it at 40 And that probably requires a downward adjustment for for just yeah, so pretty efficient lines here Yeah, I just don't want to watch this game like I'm going to schedule Uh Thanksgiving dinner during this game and I think I'm on a plane during this game Well planned ed well planned. I think I have a delta flight. So I could watch it But I just like this game would be so much better if matthew staff were playing I hope he gets healthy because like that stinks. He's good. He had an awesome year jeff driscoll Not as good. Let's move to the bills versus the cowboys. I actually do like this game Um, I like this game a lot honestly It's really fun and it's the only third or Thanksgiving game That is not a divisional rematch Within the path three or so weeks and that's part of why I like it Uh, but what do you see with the bills versus cowboys cowboys six and a half point favorites in the total of 45 and a half Yeah, I mean dallas says the best pass offense in the nfl and uh, then you come in every week and wonder whether they're ever gonna throw the ball So, uh, if they do they're gonna face pretty good bills defense, uh, that is sixth And when I look at success rate on past defense plays, uh, my number has dallas by 6.3 points. So It's kind of a stay away from me. I like the the over here, uh, the over the total has actually risen a point already It was 44 and a half. It's 45 and a half now. So I don't like it as much But I still like it because I think the bills defense is good Um, but they've had a really good schedule like they've faced and that your numbers account for that So like it's worth noting that it does account for the fact that they faced some really bad play but If you go based on number fires metrics, the bills defense ranks 20th overall after adjusting for schedule They're 13th against the pass. They're 28th against the rush And the cowboys I know that we had this perception of them being like this slow team because they always used to be but Despite all the other things that they've done that have been backwards this year. They have been an up tempo team They rank third in situation neutral pace according to football outsiders and the bills are 16th Uh, so this is kind of an up tempo game. It is a fc versus nfc. So non familiar opponents They have not just played each other in the past couple of weeks. I like the over here, uh, the total of 45 and a half I think I agree with you that the line is pretty efficient because This bill's offense isn't bad. Um, you know, they've had a they've benefited from an easy schedule too But they're not bad. So I think the line is efficient, but I do want the over here I I think that this game could be kind of fun. It's like my like It's my favorite game on thanksgiving sleigh, which I did not expect going into the year to like the game With jason garrett and josh allen and suddenly I think it's gonna be a fun game Yeah, I think I'm gonna have fun watching some josh allen. I haven't consumed much josh allen this year, but You were in for a treat. I live in syracuse, which means I'm in the buffalo market And I get to watch every bill's game. It's a trip like Jamis winston is interesting to watch because you never know what's gonna happen josh allen is is jamis on roids from like a watchability perspective because like He could fumble twice in one play and then throw a pick Or he could fumble twice one play and then run for a touchdown the dude's nuts like it's insane he could throw a pick six and It would not you wouldn't bat an eye at it, but like it's weird. It's it's gonna be a fun game. I think so Italy a fun one a national audience watching the roller coaster that is josh allen should be fun Let's move now to the saints at the falcons the line here is saints minus six and a half The total is 48 and a half and we did just see this game two weeks ago. That was the game Where the falcons defense turned it around? Obviously they regressed in a pretty big way last week. What do you see with this game? Yeah, I mean I see new orleans as a serious super bowl contender When I look at adjusted success rate their fourth on offense fifth on defense But I also see a six and a half is a pretty big number to cover on the road in the division My number has it in new norleans by three. I think I would lean towards them I don't necessarily love it because Atlanta's defense is terrible and you can see breeze just destroying them but Yeah, so I think a lean on the side towards uh, Atlanta at home Yeah, I think that for me More so than the spread. I like the under here. I think I like the under here as much as I like the over for bill's cowboys Because there's no taran arm said here for the saints and he's a left tackle So no one's gonna talk about it like we don't like to talk about left tackles But taran arm said is one of the best left tackles in football And we actually have a sample on this saints team without taran arm said because he's actually missed six games each of the Past two years if you go back to 2018 I look at the numbers on the quad edge The saints average 8.6 yards per attempt yards for pass attempts with taran arm stead It fell to 7.4 without him in 2017 It was 8.8 yards for pass attempts with him 7.7 without and that's a pretty major split And these teams again also just saw each other a couple weeks ago. So they know what they're doing Uh, drew breeze his average depth of target that's coming back is 6.8 yards downfield That leads itself to a high completion percentage, which runs the clock and that's why I want to go Towards the under I still think the saints win. So I I agree with you like the saints probably gonna win But I think it might be a bit slower and lower scoring than expected We were talking with dr. Bob about the effective area yards and drew breeze is not throwing it deep right now and Like it's a small sample. It's three games. Whatever but like Given the anecdotes around his arm I think that it's enough where I'm willing to bet the under here So I think that's that's where I would go. Uh, and you wanted falcons plus six and a half, correct? I'll lean that way. All righty. So let's move now to 49ers at ravens on the sunday slate. This one's gonna be fun, Ed It's hard for me to get a read on this game. I will be fully transparent about that The ravens are five and a half point favorites after their Domination on monday night total here is 45 and a half. Uh, what do you see with this one? Yeah, you know, like I said, I mean The ravens are on a heater and it's it's I'm not going against them. Um, yeah I don't think it's the right spot to do it even though my numbers have them winning by about two and a half points Uh, san francisco still has the best defense in in the nfl Um, you know, I mean there are problems with this baltimore team like they can't get much pass rush Um, and they're acting their second area is good, but but golf oftentimes in the first half had plenty of time to throw Um, so there definitely are problems. Um But in general this is a stay away game for me. Yeah, I think that's I'm gonna stay away too. I agree I think that this these numbers I think it's just hard for me to get a read It's kind of similar to bearer's lions were like I have no read I have no feel for how this game is going to play out. So I just want to stay away from it I do want to mention that jimmy garoppolo. I think watching him He's made some really bad throws recently But the overall body of work from jimmy garoppolo recently Has been a lot better than it was earlier in the year and I think that If you had given me five and a half On the ravens and I knew what the ravens would do, but I only knew the early season garoppolo numbers I probably would have been really excited to bet against the 49ers But given what garoppolo did with no joe staley with george kiddle being out with the manual sanders being banged up That really did change my view of him And I think that I am higher on jimmy garoppolo now than I was So I don't want to bet the 49ers, but it's enough where I'm not going to bet the ravens either. I think that He's really been impressive to me. I know that again. He's had some hideous throws Hideous throws and that matters, but I I do think that the overall body work has been a lot better For garoppolo any final thoughts on this game here ed before we move on Uh, no, all right. Let's move on to patriots versus texas Patriots three and a half point favorites here. The total is 44 and a half What do you see with this one pretty interesting game on both sides? I think Yeah, I mean my number is like new england by 2.7 points about three so In the right neighborhood probably lean towards the sean wasan and And houston although, you know, I mean houston our defense is a little bit asymmetric Um, yeah in terms of adjusted success rate their second against the run But 19th against the pass new england is still a team that is smart enough to to throw on on first downs Yep So I think they will be able to take advantage of things. So Um But you know, I mean this offense has struggled and we'll see if those struggles continue New england's defense is still lights out Um, so you have to respect them as a super bowl contender because of that defense and because of bill bellichick But you probably We'll see if they struggle again like they did last week Yeah, I think I want the over in this game at 44 and a half. Um, it's a game being played indoors It involves the teams ranked 11th and first in situation neutral pace according to football outsiders Patriots are first now, um, which is really interesting because they've I think that they've Found a groove offensively by playing up tempo and it's kind of Like we haven't seen it, uh because they've had all these injuries But when they've gone up tempo, they've been more efficient than when they weren't We just have noticed because of the injuries, but they got isa win back their left tackle last week He looked good in that game. I think it was noticeable And Muhammad Sunoo apparently almost played last week. Philip dorsett is in concussion protocol If they get both those guys back, I think this game easily goes over the total but I think I have a good enough read on them to assume those two guys are going to be back And if I assume they're back, I think the over hits here, uh, Deshaun Watson I still have a lot of faith in him, uh, not enough where I want to go at the Texans But I think enough where I want to take the over in this one So I think that with the Patriots getting healthier It makes sense to go with the over here at 44 and a half It should be a really fun game I just think that the Patriots we've gotten a lot of stink on them because of the past two games But when you think about the context of all the injuries Some bad weather in both those games too, I think it makes sense to go for the over here at 44 and a half Let's finish up with the Monday night game. It's the Vikings against the seahawks two teams I have had no read on the entire year Ed. So help me. Oh, what's your thoughts on this game? Well, I mean I can read Seattle easily They have an elite quarterback probably the best in the league this year Although Lamar is obviously giving Russell a little bit of a run for his money and their defense is terrible Now Minnesota. Yeah, I have no no idea. Um, they've kind of been a mystery to me But you know, like I actually went back looking at this, uh, to try to figure out where we are with Kurt Cousins You know, he is completing 70 of his passes. He's got the third highest passing grade on pff In minnesota is 11th when I look at adjusted success rate. So those are all Very good numbers. Maybe not living up to what they're paying him, but but those are good numbers Uh, and Seattle's defense is bad. So, um I don't know my number has about Seattle by three. So doesn't see a ton of value Maybe lean towards minnesota just based on what we've seen from cousins. Sure Do you have any thoughts on the total here at 48 and a half? 48 and a half, um I Have it about 48 and a half. Okay, so The one direction I was tempted to lean was the under at 48 and a half But I think injuries here kind of scared me off jaren reed as mentioned He rolled his ankle in week 12 using a walking boot after the game and their defense has been bad Still with him, but it's been better than it was without him, which is not saying a lot because they were really bad Before jaren reed came back But also jadevian clowny has banged up if they had jadevian clowny and jaren reed Against what is still a shaky vikings offensive line, especially going the road. I feel good about the under but Russell wilson's facing a vikings defense that has looked a lot more vulnerable this year than they have in years past That makes it hard for me to go there title lockets weak healthier now Both these teams are very run heavy, which is why I initially was drawn towards the under If you look at the two teams They're 27th and 30th and pass rate and early downs in the first half So like that to me lends itself towards the under But it's not enough for me to actually pull the trigger and go with the under I lean towards the under, but I don't actually want to you know fully commit to that And I think to me this is more of just a stay away game But I think I do lean towards the under because of that like it just frustrates me Like I think it's like it's just me getting mad at the seahawks for running so much when you have Russell freaking wilson And you just insist on running Yep, that's well, I mean minnesota too, right? Yeah, no, you're right. They're at the bottom of the league and they're trying to cram the ball Uh, their rush success rate was not good. I don't know if it was bottom five, but it wasn't it wasn't good And uh, yeah, you know, it's not really the same minnesota defense. Um, that it was two years ago and I think A lot of those guys are probably getting old and past their prime and We'll see what they do to fill that a bit of a salary cap crunch I don't think that's fully hit yet But like they did lose sheldon richardson who was there last year They're 12th against the past based on number fires metrics. They're not like actively bad, but they're nowhere near what they were Um, so I understand why the total is a 48 and a half and I think it's just enough where I don't really want to go there Ed and I always preach searching for the best value embedding on gains And you can look no further than the new odds comparison our engineers have developed over at number fire dot com Odds fire is a premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated u.s market Compare odds quickly identify the best value and even examine first party fan dual data all in one place Never settle always get the best odds check out the experience for free now on number fire or at odds fire dot com gambling problem call one 800 gambler That is all we have for this weekend. Uh, we covered nine different games kind of rapid fire A couple of I think interesting lines there we can potentially take advantage of but Overall, it's gonna be a fun week of football. I'm pretty excited to see how things play out this week Absolutely. Yeah, it should be good and with an extra full day on thursday It'll be fun. Absolutely. Yeah, what do you have over at the power egg for this week given kind of a weird week? From a content perspective Yeah, uh on the football analytic show I talked about some college football games essentially the three that we mentioned today Went a little bit more depth, uh, but I also went through three of my recommendations like my non football recommendations for part of the year Um, so probably most worth it. I guess check that out. I don't know. I have a lot of fun asking guests about non football and sports, so Yeah, have that going on and um, we'll be back next week with More newsletter and uh and podcast as tony you can find that by searching for the football analytic show Find ed's work over at the power rink dot com and find ed on twitter at the power rink ed. Happy thanksgiving to you We'll talk to you again next week. Yeah, sounds good. Absolutely. I am on twitter at gymsonus j i m s a n n e s busy podcast week this week on the dfs side We had our recap week 12 up yesterday our thanksgiving slave preview went up today And our week 13 main slave preview goes up tomorrow You can find that by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast and while you're there make sure you remember to subscribe to cover in the spread as well Back at you again with our regular two shows next week So subscribe to cover in the spread rate and review the podcast as well Big thank you to those of you who have done so already shout out to calvin theobald our video editor because cal's with Me today for the dfs show. He was with me today for a waiver wire q&a He was with us today for this cal would be tomorrow again for the dfs show Thank you cal for the crazy hustle You've had this entire week really do appreciate it as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in Hopefully thanksgiving goes well for you. Hopefully you have safe travels Hopefully the games go in your favor for both college football and the nfl as well We'll talk to you again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network