 Okay, very good morning to you. It is Wednesday the 2nd of September. Normal service resumes and that meaning then that NASDAQ and the S&P continue to push to the upside, a higher close on Wall Street overnight. In the briefing, we're going to talk a little bit about the reasons behind that, what might come next. We'll talk about the economic calendar for today. We'll talk about potential for further forthcoming fiscal and monetary stimulus in the US. We're also going to talk about the euro as some verbal intervention coming on behalf of the chief economist of the ECB yesterday coinciding with a key technical rejection around 120-12050 in the currency pair and also a quick look at the US election given Donald Trump has been in Wisconsin which was being at the epicenter of some of the recent violence in North America. So that's what we're going to cover but before I do do that just to remind you here we're going to be covering the team and I at the full US non-farm payroll release this Friday. All you need to do is go to the link. I'm going to put it in the YouTube video description and in the comment section. It's going to be capped at the first 500 registrations so do register for that early and I really look forward to taking you through that live release. We're going to have everyone on board. Piers, Will, Sam, Alex, myself, Liam will all be present so any questions will be on hand to help. But let's move on and let's look at the charts then this morning. What have we got? And as I said index futures are on the ascendancy once again and if you look at the DAX we're up around 120 points just following the site gap up. We've had a recommencement of trade in the overnight session on Urex following then the continuation of the push hire that was seen late into the close on Wall Street and then has continued during the Asia-Pacific session. Overall it was a little bit of a mixed performance for the Asia-Pacific indices. The Australian stock market actually did outperform. This comes irrespective of the fact that their second quarter GDP came in quarter on quarter at minus 7%. Expectations were for a contraction of just 5.9% but what that's done then is kind of that mantra of the worse the news, the more powerful the anticipated stimulus response coming from the government and so therefore naturally the Australian equity market has kind of jumped ahead and looking forward then to increase stimulus measures to boost their economy. So weaker GDP but a stronger result for the Australian stock market but a little bit mixed elsewhere. Japan, South Korea, modest gains, China, Hong Kong a tiny bit lower. But overall if we look at the close on Wall Street yesterday we just flick over to the heat map because that really tells the story and one of the companies you can see once again here that is in the green one of the big market cap names that generally just drags the equity indices higher in the case of the Nasdaq certainly but also the S&P is Apple they were up another 4%. Remember they were already up a similar margin on the back of that 4 for 1 stock split. It's kind of going live if you like in the prior session added another 4%. This follows that news that we're covering in a briefing this time yesterday about Apple asking their suppliers to build at least 75 million 5G iPhones later this year alongside new watch models, new iPad Air, new smaller HomePod, lots of other products they're bringing to market irrespective of the pandemic obviously that are still interrupted somewhat a lot of these these retailers but not for Apple in terms of their expectations going forward in the market liking that to give you a bit of context here I saw an interesting stat. Apple's market capitalization is now equal to the combined value of all the stocks in the Russell 2000 so quite incredible really those smaller domestic brokers kind of small caps in the US 2000 of them is equal to just one mega mega cap tech name but obviously one of the big things from yesterday that helped push the the market higher just generally in terms of risk appetite it caused the dollar to also reverse some of that persistent selling pressure that it was under which coincided with that kind of cap in the euro dollar quite a key level we'll look at in a moment but also underpinning the general equity push with US manufacturing activity and obviously that expanded in August at the fastest pace since late 2018 again growth in new orders jumped more than six points which reached the highest point since the start of 2004 the gradual reopening of businesses and steady improvement in consumer demand that left infantry's depleted a boosting manufacturing in the United States but factory employment does remain a little bit weak and that will be a consideration when we look at the Labor Department report in non-farms on Friday but you know really strong figure coming out of the US and it does follow the coattails of that Chinese manufacturing activity number we saw the day before which expanded as fast as clipping nearly a decade with also the first increase in new export orders this year so you know if you think about the things that are going on at the moment then these are some really positive and encouraging signs for then the strength and speed of the global recovery and so with that in the context of the fact that there's probably a more likelihood of further stimulus to come whether that's the Fed remaining very accommodative we had feds L'Oreal Brainard who's a governor at the FMC suggested yesterday that the importance is for the Fed policy to pivot to accommodation from stabilisation in the coming months furthermore Treasury Secretary Stephen Manchin said yesterday the US economy urgently needs additional fiscal stimulus to fully rebound from the COVID-19 crisis so think about it at the moment you get in this continuation of further commitment from both fiscal and monetary forms and it's being put into a context where economic data is showing a fairly robust recovery and all of that happening of course with this also happening which I'll just transition my screen which is COVID-19 cases in America continue to decline so you know if we look at daily case numbers current hospitalized numbers and daily deaths they're continuing that trend which has been in play over the course of really the month of August and so you know if we look at that when people were talking about the second wave and the Sun Belt States and about how that was going to have potential real pressure on hospitals you know we're pretty much getting back down to the levels of where we were at the lowest point after the initial first wave and I believe in Texas in the next week or so they're going to start reopening certain businesses and so on so all of this then is a real positive sign for fair equities it's like a perfect storm it's the Fed not changing that's no way no chance they're going to tighten if anything they're going to ease further whether we go from you know Clarida yesterday still keeping your curve control on the table to Brainard saying that we should pivot to accommodation from stabilisation to the new adoption of average inflation targeting to then Steven Mnuchin still pushing with on Capitol Hill against Nancy Pelosi to get some form of stimulus in well then I can't really see all things remaining equal any reason why this equity market shouldn't just continue to rally now that doesn't mean it won't be without its momentary pullbacks of profit-taking in terms of some of the short-term speculators looking to book some on the way up but yeah I mean we look we're at almost 35 and a 35 50 now coming up in the S&P future and we're trading close to that the pivot or excuse me the R1 comes in at 44 they're just above but yeah 3600 yeah why not is that going to happen today I would say no it's quite far off but it would it happen this week or in the future I think it will so I don't see much to the track from that at the time being if you pivot that over to crude crude oil should be supportive by a similar narrative an overall more solid global picture as has been identified by the manufacturing PMIs and both from China to the US would indicate then a better return of demand coming for consumption of these energy products and typically that would be supportive of oil the American Petroleum Institute reported crude inventories dropped by 6.36 million barrels last week according to people familiar with the matter that was in a report in Bloomberg this morning that would mark the longest run of declines this year if confirmed by government data on Wednesday so you've got a better global picture which should then increase general appetite in terms of demand forward-looking you've also got then persistent drawdowns happening in terms of inventories and also from a technical perspective if you look at this crude chart looking on a daily continuation and we've just had in the last day the 50 DMA has now crossed the 200 DMA which would be typically known then as the Golden Cross which would be a bullish signal from that technical indicator that you know we're already looking at the 21 DMA has been a good area of support for price generally so I'd still be keeping an eye on that with that low from the 27th of August which is around 42 36 but you know lower down that shorter dated moving average crossing the longer one generally would be a bullish factor and so yeah whether that's going to be the key today or not we'll see perhaps then the oil inventory numbers whether the API but usually more the DOE sparks price activity could that be the midweek catalyst it needs then to push it on up higher if that does happen as I said before technically we need to get above the 26th of August high which came in around 43 78 which is about 50 cents or so above the current price but if we did then I don't really see too much in a way of obstacles technically from resistance point of view until we get all the way up to 44 and then 45 would be a key target on the outside so still remain bullish in the current set up and I would anticipate then oil to move in a similar fashion to the general grind hire that we've seen in equities because they're both trading off a fairly similar generalized narrative in that in that sense elsewhere then with some of that pickup gold just coming off a touch yesterday gold being rejected at the 2000 hand and we know that was important before on the rally up and so on the decline it was equally so and now we've got back to that point so I think you know just given some of those positive developments yesterday probably a good chance to just books and profits given the run out we had a bit of a technical break if anything in price yesterday we got above some key levels that were defining last week's price activity and in the early trade of this week and then we broke above that extended up to 2000 before they're just running into the resistance and profit-taking on that move nothing too much more so than that I would say and then elsewhere yeah let's have a quick look at the currencies I mean one of the main things that I was looking at was was this one Euro surge is ECB's newest complication for pandemic economy and it's talking about in the past those who were trading for many years will remember Mario Draghi dealing with the Euro particularly a few years ago when it was at 140 but remember it was up at 160 at one point and that's where you get this kind of termed jaw boning where they try to talk down the currency and because of the nature of the fact that in in the euro area the European currency unions particularly exposed to currency strength because of its relatively high reliance on exports and so what we've had here is a little bit of that soft intervention verbally I to call it and it's come by way of the chief economist of the ECB Philip Lane who said basically that the euro-dollar rate does matter so he's trying to do that's kind of the very soft signal pulling on the table look we are mindful of it it's rallied an awful lot in a very short space of time just a number of weeks when it's broken out to the upside amidst as well some of this dollar weakness of course but really initiated that euro strength since Merkel came through over delivered with the latest form of German domestic stimulus coincided with the coordinated EU recovery fund delivery and that really fired up galvanized the euro in the context of the weakening dollar that we've seen with the further move to a competitive policy from the Fed with the technical breaches on long-term trend lines the euro is really sore so this isn't too unusual activity it is probably to be expected from the euro and if we look at the euro from a technical perspective and our key level that Alex was looking at with a few of the guys yesterday was up at 120 to 120 50 I'm looking at a weekly candlestick chart here so that's that break out of that long-term trend line and that summer 18 high but as we get to around 120 50 you can see that there's that peak of price movement in September of 2017 and that load that we had in the summer July of 2012 as a key area so that's a big resistance point and obviously what's quite interesting is the ECB have shown their first hand if you like in that they're not they're looking to control and tame the appreciation of the currency because what they don't want to happen is what was happening back here during 2014 and certainly back in the midst of the financial financial crisis itself so yes quite quite interesting there otherwise then you know coinciding with that technical rejection those key levels obviously really instigator was a dollar bounce off the lows following the stellar ISM yesterday so consequently cable also a little bit lower just backing off the surge that it's had just falling short to 135 handles so those major pairs down the touch this morning the Dixie's not really doing anything this morning it's flat but it importantly is holding on to to the gains it made yesterday so we were trading a sub and 92 hand we yesterday we're back up to around 92 40 now in Dixie for the time being okay one of the final things I just wanted to cover was a quick look at this and this is to talk a little bit more I guess from a political strategy point of view more so than I think it's really a definable thing to trade right here right now but you probably saw some of these images from from yesterday and they're circulating this morning and Donald Trump met with local leaders in Kenosha Wisconsin on Tuesday he barely even mentioned Jacob Blake who was the the black man shot seven times in the back by a white police officer in front of his children instead Trump made it clear that his sympathies lay with the police force and now here in then is the the big kind of strategy play from Trump his campaign of course is aiming to counter the loss of faith in his administration over the handling of the pandemic and also the economy by painting a dystopian picture of a democratic administration where towns and cities are kind of as he would term it in his tweets succumb to the mob and the mobs running riot causing violence smashing homes smashing shops causing disruption rioting and so therefore reinforcing his call for law and order that he continues to repeat as a message now one of the things here then that's you know that's quite interesting in terms of developments in terms of what Trump has at his disposal to try and catch up and narrow this gap with Biden is that if you think about these things here the main things is he needs to counteract then the loss of faith and what created a loss of confidence in himself reflected in the polls which was his dealing with the pandemic and its impact it's had on the economy but if you look at it as we've been discussing in this briefing the economy is recovering and ISM really epitomized that yesterday stocks are rallying COVID cases are declining and also we've still got the televised debates coming up which the general consensus is Biden's got his work cut out whether it's his own his own mental agility or whether it's Trump gonna be more kind of refined we'll not say refined that's a bad word to describe it but Trump being more perhaps comfortable in their routine of a televised debate forum so all of that I would say in the current contest is playing out fairly favorable for Donald Trump at the moment and one of the things that's been quite evident is I was looking at some some data from the FT and it was talking about it was asking white voters by different political parties so whether you're a Democrat, Republican or independent and asking do you support or oppose the Black Lives Matter movement and obviously this was a massive thing after the George Floyd death a few months ago and it went kind of viral it was a big global social issue but very different now I'd say to the type of engagement that the world and domestic communities in America really had with that subject matter albeit it's still a very very divisive and clear subject but here what was interesting I thought was if you actually look at what's happened do you support or oppose the Black Lives Matter movement the actual independence here if actually look at it the oppose in the independence now I'm going to focus on that because I think it's a little bit more interesting given that they don't have any political leaning in either direction the oppose has gone up and the support has gone down so what this would suggest to me is that as time has gone on what's started to happen here and it does fit in step with some signs about COVID declining the economy improving Trump's jumping on this trying to then further exacerbate the movement back towards law and order and away from from COVID and this is reflected in white voters who are more perhaps indecisive sitting on the fence are starting to get starting to buy into this kind of idea and somewhat tiresome of then this social movement and the more violence there is for whatever justified reasons there might be for conducting that for the history of the actual issue in question the point is it's actually being self-defeating for the Democrats at this point in time and it's actually further fueling more popularity towards Trump because it just further legitimizes the law and order and being tough on crime and supporting the police force kind of movement for the white voter in this case so yeah I just thought it was it was quite interesting to see some of these latest developments and certainly Trump he's aware of these figures and hence the reason he's doing what he's doing and then obviously the situations like what we had happening in Portland in the state of Washington at the weekend with a clash between Trump and Black Lives Matter movement protesters that resulted in the death of a Trump supporter certainly helps this narrative of course so what is all this leading to well the gap continues to narrow my my foresight here would would be that I would anticipate that this gap will continue to narrow and as the economy and what's going to be important is COVID cases continuing to decline economic data continuing to stabilize and improve and I do think that Trump will come out more favorable in terms of those televised debates and so at the moment I would say further games for Trump is probably on the cards now what does that mean I guess as we get closer towards it and we're already seeing this and a few other articles in the FT this morning if I quickly just jump I go very quickly here just conscious of time but there were some good graphics in the FT talking about volatility kinks looking out where in the options market obviously you can start to anticipate then where the peak of volatility has come and the biggest VIX election premium on record now can be seen and the closer these polls start to converge the more up for debate is going to be on who's going to actually win what the actual victor will be and the more people are going to have to hedge themselves for a potential more volatility ahead in the period so not so much for trading right now but I think an interesting observation and one I wanted to share and if yeah this articles in the FT if you wanted to have a look at it all right that is it so as per usual really appreciate it if you're new to the channel if you could subscribe absolutely feel free to leave a comment I always try to reply and engage with everyone so I'm absolutely happy to help as best I can otherwise do register for the payroll event I'll remind you of that few more times before actually takes place on Friday but yeah have a good day and I'll see you same time tomorrow thanks very much