 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We talked about the Thursday games in the 2024 men's college basketball tournament yesterday and today We're gonna break down the Friday games 16 more games on tap for this offering You're gonna break down those is Aiden Cotter a Fandall research will pick his brain on what he sees across the landscape for the Second day of games to get you ready for it should be another delightful day on the court This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Joined here has mentioned my Aiden Cotter check him out on Twitter Aiden Cotter FD Find his work over a Fandall research where he is a writer for us Aiden a delight to have you back on the show today How you doing pretty good Jim? This is like my favorite week of the year So I'm really excited to talk through some of the games and hopefully have as much luck as we did last week Now your Dayton Flyers are a seven seed. Are you hoping to transfer your 7 and 0 record from last week? Are you trying to transfer the good VODs over to Dayton or are you willing to? sacrifice your flyers for the greater good of the podcast you go 7 and 0 again this week man You put me in a tough spot right there. I think I would sacrifice it for for a win I mean that after that 2020 year think we're due for a little good karma, but yeah got a tough matchup I'm really glad that you had Riley on yesterday to talk through the Thursday game So I was like, ah, I can't do this to Aiden, you know We didn't plan it that way But I felt good about the way things broke in that regard at least no it worked out Well, I can avoid that and just pay attention to that as a fan and not as an analyst I did force Riley to talk about Kentucky So I couldn't avoid all of the you know fan allegiances and you know, you're talking about the Northwestern games So tread lightly for today because I can take you out of the screen real fast So just letting you know that that that power does lie in my hands and you have been warned only good things about Northwestern Okay, that makes me scared too. So maybe there was no actually good answer there We're gonna talk to Aiden to get us read on these Friday games here in just one second But as alluded to we did discuss the Thursday games as podcasts going up on Thursday So if you wanted to hear Riley assaults on those Thursday games Check that out right here in the covering the spread podcast So you can also find that show on the Fandal YouTube page and a fandal TV plus also women's bracket gets underway here soon We had Justin Carter on the show on Tuesday he broke down his thoughts on South Carolina what he thinks about Iowa with their setup taking on potentially I'll see you pretty early on so You can find all that right here in the covering the spread podcast He did the fandal YouTube page and fandal TV plus because we had two shows on Monday No show on Fridays. We're covering all the Friday stuff here today With Aiden also, don't forget if you need some last-minute bracket advice We had the full bracket breakdown show on Monday. I forgot to mention that the biggest show of the week We did do that on one on Monday with Dr. Ed Feng and Bennett Corcoran So if you need some last-minute bracket advice check out that in this exact same feed Say goodbye to busted brackets because fandal lets you bet on every game of the tourney whether you're betting on a big upset Or a one-seat. It's time to go dancing on America's number one sports book right now New customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets if your first five dollar bet wins That's two hundred bucks on point spreads money lines You can even pick who's gonna win it all just as a fandal calm and bet on college hoops until they cut down the nets Must be 21 plus in present in select states Fandal is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC first online real money Wager only ten dollar first deposit required bonus issued is novel trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat See terms at sportsbook dot fandal calm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or was a fandal calm slash RG Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey Ohio Pennsylvania Illinois Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia North Carolina and Vermont call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Arizona 1 8 and 8 7 8 9 7777 Over the ccpg.org slash jack in Connecticut 1 800 9 with it in Indiana 1 800 5 2 2 4700 visit chaos gambling health commie, Kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 1 800 gambler net in West Virginia 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in Wyoming hope is here as a gambling helpline MA org or clay hundred 3 2 7 50 50 for support of Massachusetts or call 1 8 7 70 hoping y or text open y in New York Now a we'll break down the Friday games here in a second But because we got you on because we got you on here on Thursday Did want to ask you if there any last second futures you want to lock in before this tournament gets underway Yeah at this point. I don't love betting futures once the tournament opens a lot of the time I think you're better off just betting these teams game by game sure So I really like New Mexico this year coming out of the South region I think they're like a fun sleeper team a little bit of a Cinderella candidate and right now they're plus 250 to make the sweet 16 and plus 1700 to win the region at that point They'd have to beat Clemson who they're minus 126 on the money line and then they'd probably play Baylor who they'd be an underdog Mm-hmm. I think I'd rather just bet those games individually piece by piece especially for those lower seeds When we're talking about either the sweet 16 or the elite eight futures There is a team Crayton that I am interested in yeah, playing a little bit on their national championship future So they're plus 2,500 on Fandall Crayton is the lowest has the lowest odds of those teams where They're top 10 in like team-wide efficiency numbers. They have a top 12 offense at top 25 defense Third and effective field role percentage It's been here if you remember last year against San Diego state They lost in the elite eight on just pretty questionable I would say foul call at the end of the game San Diego state hits a free throw to go on but up into that point Crayton was rolling and They return a good bulk of their team from last year, especially their best three players They have this big guy Ryan Cockburner Who has the size and the skill to battle with some of those elite bigs? Especially in their region where they have Zach Eadie up with it's and Hunter Dickens up the top and They are probably the lowest of the teams where I'm really confident in their ability to get things done on both sides of the Ball so at 2,500 I think is a pretty good price for them Especially given their region with Purdue and Tennessee and Kansas who all have some question marks in March Yeah, that's what I was gonna ask about was the region here because on paper. It does look like a pretty tough region I have concerns about Purdue personally, but those are you know, like my my own like personal things Hey, but like, you know, it is generally teams that are pretty well rated. Do you think that's why Crayton's odds are somewhat long at 25 to 1 for a three-seat although there are a lot of three seats that their odds are longer as well Yeah, I mean Crayton's kind of just hung around in that like top 10 to top 20 Efficiency range all seasons so that I don't think they've ever been considered one of those true contenders and especially where the numbers really do like Purdue and Kansas and Gonzaga at the top who are all Have these strong metrics and these strong resumes and Tennessee at the bottom where the sportsbook probably isn't as high on Crayton as I will be sure But knowing Crayton has that experience. They've been there. This they have a lot of continuity from the last year I think we are getting some good value there at plus 2,500 Okay So the one future right or Aiden is considering right now is Crayton 25 to 1 to potentially win it all for this year Let's talk about some games South region is the busiest region for this Friday as they have six total games in Action in the south for this week now Aiden when you look at those six games in the south Where are you seeing value for this Friday? So right off the bat. I really like this eight nine matchup with Texas A&M and Nebraska Both of these teams are they come from power conferences, right? They've shown the ability to beat some of the best teams in the country Consistently throughout the year. Nebraska has this huge win over Purdue Texas A&M Has been like one of the streakiest hot and cold teams in the country They have a non-conversation over Iowa State. They've been Kentucky twice. They've beaten Tennessee But they also just have some Brutal losses. They don't have a super efficient offense. And so I think getting Nebraska at minus one and a half Is a pretty nice number When you look at Nebraska, they have Who I think will is almost a lock to be in one shining moment is Coside to me Tommy Naga and he is an absolute sniper from beyond the arc He is one of going to be one of the more electric players in the field and His outside shooting I think really can open things up for Nebraska team that loves to shoot from deep And when you look at Texas A&M, they do have a pretty decent defense But the one area where they give up a ton of open looks is from beyond the arc they're like bottom 10 in the country in three-point rate allowed and Then Nebraska on the other hand is like top 35 and three-point rate top 75 and three-point efficiency and Texas A&M, they are a really good offensive rebound team and they have these guards Wade Taylor is one of the better players in the SEC Nebraska, I think it has just had is more well rounded and I do like them at one and a half They're just knowing I can trust their offense and their defense whereas Texas A&M Just a little too hot and cold for me Right now in Nebraska minus one and a half is minus one away to Vanduola Sportsbook Conversely the Nebraska Moneyline Minus one twenty two for that max match of versus Texas A&M now Nebraska being dependent on the three pretty volatile play style Does that give you any consideration to Checking out them if they were to hypothetically face Houston or is that a bit too far of a leap for you? Yeah, I'm not sure I I want to dive into that match up a little bit more Yeah, I will say when you go when you look at odds to make the sweet 16 Yeah, Nebraska's and odds to make the final four out of that region Nebraska's ours odds are Significantly better than Texas A&M even compared to some of the other differences between the eight and nine seeds So I think the market and the book definitely would say Nebraska has a better chance to be Houston the Texas A&M, but yeah, man. That's a tough matchup Okay, understandably so Houston a consideration to it at all So but you know, Nebraska round one lay in that one and a half at minus 108 Against Texas A&M as mentioned six games in the south any other value you saw across the south here, Aiden Yeah, so speaking of Houston, I'm gonna look at this Houston Longwood game and we have a really big spread and I Personally just can't get myself to lay these massive numbers with these one seeds where I do like to look in these games is First half spreads for the 16 seeds Okay, so if you go to the first half we have Longwood plus 15 a half in the first half which is a crazy number and it's It's hard to bet against Houston, especially against these lower teams They are have the top first half scoring differential in the country this year the top first half defense I mean, they're the best defense in the country I think you guys talked about on the Monday show and I completely agree. They are off the charts defensively However Houston two weeks ago lost one of their backup big guys Joe Tugler, which not a huge loss, but that's depth That's another big guy that's out of the rotation and then in the semi-finals of the big 12 tournament Joanne Roberts, who is their main big guy. He is their best big guy went down It doesn't look like it's anything structural from what I had seen. It was just a pretty severe bruise He did not play in the second half of that game He got hurt and then he only played 13 minutes in the championship when they got crushed by Iowa State. I Wouldn't be surprised and we've seen this before where these one and two seats Well, if they have a guy who's kind of up in the air for the first round they will rest them in that first game because if you're Houston You're gonna beat Longwood with or without Joanne Roberts knock on wood When you look at Houston's numbers when they don't have Roberts or Togler on the floor their net rating drops 16 points Their offensive rating drops 12 points and their defensive rating rises four points So we're talking about team that has good guard still I don't think they're at any risk to lose to Longwood But the same time without Roberts especially against a 16 seed who kind of has nothing to lose We've seen these 16 teams kind of make a little bit noise in the last couple years And this isn't just a regular 16 seed. This is Longwood is by far the best 16 seed Based on our numbers they profile closer to a 15 than a 16. They've played some better teams They played my Dayton Flyers earlier in the year. They actually led by three at half at Dayton They beat high point twice who was like the crown jewel of their conference the Big South They would have been like a 14 or 15 seed They're a good rebounding team, which makes me really more confident to back them against such a physical team like Houston And when you look at Houston under Kelvin Samson, so the last couple years in the first round Last year they played a 16 seed. They were up three points at half the year before they were five playing at 12 They were up nine the year before they were two playing a 15 up eight And then in 2019 when they were three playing a 14, they were up nine Last year was really kind of shocking. I was all over Houston to cover that game And I think they ended up covering there But we've seen time and time again where these one-seeds kind of come out a little sluggish and I think if they don't have a Roberts I really do like plus 15 a half on this Longwood team I think we're getting pretty good value there as scary as it is to bet against the one-seed Yeah, it works both ways because it is you're getting Houston will be most motivated because you know They could rest guys in the second half They get a big big lead which is why there is a discrepancy between the first half spread and the second half spread You know, it's not as big as you might think the full game spread based on what this first half is But the at the other time it's also a smaller sample and the smaller sample Gives a lesser skilled team a better better odds of covering better odds of keeping things close So I think that's pretty interesting Longwood plus 15 and a half minus 120 in the first half where Aiden is going there Let's shift focus now and talk about the east for games out in the east for this Friday Which which bets are you targeting there as we do you see you con in action in the east of the first time as well? Well, Jim, we're going right here on the matter. I'm looking at this FAU Northwestern game Northwestern has been I'm from live in Chicago. Yep been to a few Northwestern games Definitely my favorite team in the big 10 my favorite team to watch I Wanted to lay this plus two and a half against FAU so bad and I just couldn't get there. Yeah Where I can't get there is we go to boo-boo ease points. Oh heck. Yeah, let's go, baby Over 20 and a half so boo-boo in Northwestern's all-time leading scorer fifth-year senior is having by far I would say the best year of his career. He's always been like a high volume score But this year his efficiency is just off the charts. He's shooting like 44% from three on Seven rated attempts a game averaging a little under 20 points per game has a sky high 27% usage rate And he's been here before he's played in these games last year in the tournament scored 22 and 18 points And now that he's having kind of even a more efficient season I'm really looking to him to Go out on top, you know as a senior meaning so much to this program Every game could be his last right? I mean FAU is favored by two and a half points In all likelihood FAU might pull this game out But boo-boo. I don't think is going to go out quietly He's coming off this big 29 point performance in the big 10 tournament and although they lost I think he's really well set up here against FAU FAU is like a good offensive team and I think that's going to give Northwestern some problems But they're just they're 100 9th and adjusted defense They've been vulnerable to these high usage guards throughout the season So if you go to synergy sports, they have all these like ISO and pick and roll numbers Where you can really dive into player specific data And boo-boo is 20th nationally in isolation, right? And he out of tournament players He is averaging the most isolation possessions per game Northwestern loves to just give him the ball and let boo cook let him do his thing He's been here fifth year senior And when you go to FAU FAU is 252nd in isolation points per possession allowed You go through some of their game logs and see And they're more high-profile matchups. They played Texas A&M And I talked about Wade Taylor a little bit with Nebraska. Wade Taylor's worth 35 against them They played Arizona Arizona has Caleb Love very similar guard. Caleb Love had 28 against them They played Illinois. It was Terence Shannon Who's one of the best best guards in the big 12 big 10 get 33 against them They just don't have the perimeter defenders to slow down these high usage these quick guards I think boo is just in a really nice spot here 20 and a half for boo-booey and jim, you know this better than anyone. That's not a big number. No I mean, he went full heat check in the big 10 tournament. I know I like you said they lost Uh, but 29 points there He was jacking of threes from like the logo and like with the injuries they've got that's probably their best approach Is like just let him do whatever he wants Um, like ever since ty berry went down like they've kind of just leaned on him and honestly Why would you not given that's probably your best approach? So I'm on board with that I wish I were not in Illinois. So I got actually bet this one with you But boo-booey over 20 and a half points. That's in the northwestern versus f a u game Over as mine is falling away. Go cats, baby. I can't bet it, but I can at least I root for him regardless either way Okay, let's shift focus here and talk about the west. We got four games there the three four five and six Seeds all in action. We take a look at the west aid and anything sent out to you there This clumson new mexico game is probably my favorite game on the board So we got new mexico. They opened up one and a half. They've now been bet up to two and a half I right away took them at one and a half and I put it in all at them four and a half Okay, I love this new mexico team. They were kind they were on the bubble They had some bad losses throughout the year. They won the mountain west tournament found their way into the field And as an 11 seed they are one of the more under seated teams in the tournament They're like top 25 in our numbers They shouldn't be an 11 seed so a lot of the mountain west teams I think kind of got under seated and new mexico is the prime example of that So when you look at new mexico, they love to push the pace They love to get up and down they play at this frantic style They have these three guards jaylen house donovan dent and jamal basper and jr And they're all they're a little shorter. They don't have a lot of size out on the wing But these guys can just score They can just get up and down they cause teams so many issues And they do it while still having an efficient defense New mexico is top 35 in Defensive efficiency and when you look at clemson, they have not really held up against these upper echelon defenses They're three and four against top 40 kempom defenses They did beat alabama who is another fast-paced team, but that was back in november and If you know anything about alabama, their defense stinks This is not a thing This is not a team new mexico where they love to push the pace and get in these high scoring games And they can't guard anyone They do like to push the pace and they do want to play in these more high scoring affairs but they can get down and they can force turnovers and They are a team that doesn't just They're not just offense only right and clemson is another team where playing in a little bit of a weaker acc this year They've struggled against these better guards They don't force a lot of turnovers And they kind of are the opposite in new mexico where they want to play at this slower pace And so I think that is going to what it's going to be the deciding factor here is who can dictate the pace Clemson wants to get down. They want to play in the half core and they want to post up New mexico doesn't want anything to do with that, right? They do have a pretty big good big man jt top in We were in on his points last week and I think he can do enough against clemson's big man pj hall where new mexico If they ended up winning this game by double digits, I would not be surprised I just um, I wasn't very impressed with this clemson team down the stretch They had a good beginning of the season, but new mexico's pace and their Ability to create extra opportunities feel offensive rebounding and the turnovers just really gives them an edge here And I just love this two and a half number And you mentioned they took the alt market at four and a half Right now the new mexico minus four and a half number is plus 132 You could go beyond that as well if you wanted Do you think this number has moved enough where you'd rather stick with the more traditional market or are the alt markets So at least somewhat enticing with where things currently stand. Yeah, I still like getting plus money on this team. Like I said I and maybe this is just me watching a lot of mountain west and ac basketball, but I just don't I wouldn't be surprised if new mexico runs clemson off the floor here Yeah, I think the two and a half is definitely the safe way to go But if you want to get a little bit of that extra juice I would bet this up to four like I said four and a half is where I like that number And I think I got like plus 170 and anything with plus money off that I really really think that's a solid value Well through the magic of audio you are recording this Before you can hear riley's episode because that is going up on wednesday We're talking this pre recording on tuesday But riley liked new mexico too. Uh, he was actually one of the futures You'd mentioned considering them to the sweet 16 plus 250. That's what riley liked as well so I I'm into it synergy across the fandal research team both liking uh new mexico here adan is going with new mexico minus two and a half In this one against clemson considering the alt market minus four and a half, which is at plus 132 Let's finish you up here by talking about the midwest just two games in the midwest on uh this friday headline here By tcu taking on utah state anything you like here in the south Yeah, we'll close out with another player prop. So I If we go to the points props great asa bar for utah state His points prop I believe is at 16 and a half And you're paying a little bit of juice. I think it's like minus 120 But great osa bar is utah states big man. He I don't want to compare him to zack ed because ed is a monster seven foot three just a different player than osa bar Osa bar is only like six eight six nine. He's not as physically dominant But he's a jr. This will be his this is his first year in kind of this full-time role In the first two years he had these crazy per 36 numbers Right, he had a high usage rate whenever he was actually on the floor and he could pop off for these big numbers But he wasn't getting that consistent playing time And wasn't playing these heavy minutes This year totally different story one mountain west player of the year averaging 18 points per game He's got this 26 usage rate He's attempted double digit shots in 23 of his 33 games. utah state loves to run their offense through him, right? He played his first two years at montana state before transferring to usa state this year and he made the tournament both times So this will be his third tournament appearance His first one as his team's primary player Last year scored 11 points against kansas state But like I said a smaller role, but it was encouraging you went five or six against another big 12 team When you look at this big pill team this tcu team Pretty good team, right? Just kind of the definition of a solid college basketball team Pretty decent on offense and defense, but the one area they do really struggle on and defense is the interior, right? They allow 33 points in the paint per game. That's the 22nd highest rate among high major teams Opponents get 42 of their shots at the rim per bark torvik Compared to all the other tournament teams that is the third highest rate among active teams and tcu and utah state both play at a pretty solid pace And so I think that's going to give him a lot of chances and a lot of possessions to get down low and Kind of get his way to the free throw line where he gets a lot of his production and take advantage of a tcu team That has really struggled to guard the interior So that's for great osa bar in the tcu versus utah state game over 16 and a half is minus 128 right now fandals sports But there are some arson alternate markets for osa bar as well over at fandals sports We want to go a bit higher, but um looking at him. He's doing this on Insane efficiency and if he's passed the milsap doctrine where got the expanded role and still was super efficient We talked about this with bubuy where he's northwestern's guide. They're going to lean on him You think it'll be a similar dynamic here with osa bar in this game when everything is on the line Yeah, absolutely and a lot of his bigger games this season Which I like to see came against the better teams in the mountain west right in these closer games They really relied on him and would push him up to 33 34 minutes And in a winter go home scenario I think they're gonna just really really lean on him. He's been their entire offense all year He's been their go-to guy and especially against the tcu team. Like I said that does not defend the interior very well If they want a chance to win they're going to be hammering great osa bar Okay, so over 16 and a half minus 128 for the tcu versus utah state game there any other bets You want to mention across this friday aiden? I think that's all I got today. Love it. I love to hear it It's a pretty good offering here So got osa bar over 16 and a half points minus 128 new mexico minus two and a half considering the all market there Boo booey over 20 and a half points minus 108 longwood first half plus 15 and a half minus 120 nebraska Minus one and a half against texas a&m. We're hoping to duplicate last week where aiden went undefeated in the recommendations here on the show That is aiden codder make sure you check them out on twitter at aiden codder fd find his work at fandor research Aiden it is a pleasure having you on the show here today getting you back on next week Talk about since we had 16 games both you and riley looking forward to that Good luck to you and enjoy the opening weekend of the tournament. Yeah, absolutely. Thanks for having me on jib Alrighty again find aiden on twitter at aiden codder fd I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can find fandor research on twitter at fandor research Do you not forget a lot of good stuff? You are already in the feed Thursday break at break down with riley thomas women's breakdown at justin carter Full bracket breakdown with dr. Ed fang and benna corcorate all right up on the covering the spread podcast feed The fandal youtube page and fandal tv plus want to thank you all for tuning in We'll talk to you once again next week tom veckeo filling in for me on monday austin swam tuesday Tom with you wednesday i'm back with you next thursday to get you set for more college basketball action This has been covering the spread right here on the fandal podcast network