 Let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegstad, as we do every Wednesday at 40 past the hour from forex-trading-unlocked.com. Teddy Kegstad. Good morning. Good morning, Tommy. So last Wednesday, Teddy, I was talking to you. You were on your beautiful balcony with the foliage. And this week, I'm on the balcony, man, talking to you for some beautiful backgrounds, but quite a difference in the markets, man. We have a lot to digest in terms of Friday the action, of course, and then this week and yesterday's action with Chairman Powell. Where do you want to kick things off? Well, what a difference a week makes, huh? Well, why don't we start with the end? So we can tie it all together. So when we spoke last week on Wednesday, I was telling all your viewers, stay away from holiday markets. Probably good advice for most people after what happened. So... Remarkable. Yeah. Yeah. So while now it's kind of interesting, Thursday was the holiday obviously and then Thursday night and to Friday was where everything happened. So let's digest what really happened. Now, obviously, they were hot, thin holiday markets, okay? We had a huge move in the interest rate market. Obviously, we had a $10 sell-off in oil. So what did that do? It knocked around, well, for one, the interest rate move impacts the dollar to begin with. Then the oil move also shook up all the, you know, remember, we had the oil trade on for like the yen, the Canada insert, different currency crosses. All of those were impacted huge. I mean, you can tell by the chart in the end. I mean, it was kind of funny because Thursday night, I had a short-term sell signal and we were right below my 116 target. You know? So I'm thinking, well, you know what? It's a holiday. I'm just going to liquidate my arms and just put a couple of shorts on and just risk the high. I'm like, it's a low-risk sell and we're right below my target, right? Wake up the next day, catch a $3 move. Whoa, what was that all about? You know? So... And so these moves don't happen, you know, typically unless there's like news. Holiday exacerbated move on a thin market, short hours in the U.S. And what have you going into a weekend? Now obviously Monday, Tuesday was the digestion period where we're at right now. You know? Now oil, you know, it's the COVID scare. That's what's going on right now, you know? So we haven't had, you know, if we start to see lockdowns in the U.S. Obviously, and keep on pushing around the world, I mean, Germany and Austria are not looking good right now, you know? So that's where we are definitely having the COVID trade back on the table. But I would be leery of this oil sell-off. Now I know I've been a bull calling for $100, you know, and it's not about right or wrong here. It's about what's the reality of things. Unless we're going to have a slowdown in pace with everything, especially globally, oil has just taken a nick. This is a knee-jerk reaction to fear, you know? So kind of like what would happen after months of what was going on during the COVID trend when we were trading lower and stuff like that. The fact is that supplies of oil are not, oil is not running out. Oil is just not getting to where it needs to go. So the question of demand is there, you know? So I think that's what you're really seeing with the yen, you know, especially as far as most of the currencies. And let's start with that one. So we had a nice correction, okay? We're coming off of multi-month highs, you know? A two, three-day sell-off does not a fair market make, you know? And especially with the extent of the range that happened over Friday and even the volatility on Monday and Tuesday, you know? So at these levels, here's what I'm looking at. You know, you look at the dollar index, okay? That peaked obviously last week going into the holiday. It's coming off a high, you know? So I'm looking at all of these moves right now as a correction, not as a trend changer or anything like that because what's changed in the world? Nothing, you know, except for the fear factor, you know? So I think that's what we're trading on right now. I'm still bullish, the US dollar yen overall. I think that was a good buying area long term. I mean, unless oil continues to get a slide, but I don't really see oil getting below 60 bucks a barrel, let alone into the 50s anytime soon, you know? And even if it does, I think that'll be an exacerbated spike and you'll have a balloon underwater rally. So I'd be very careful getting caught with these, what I'm saying are corrections right now. I think your counter-trend trades, you have to view it as that. And manage it like that as well. Yeah, I love the take, man, and even on crude, which is remarkable. I was just playing with some Fubanachi numbers, Teddy. And if you take the run, it's a remarkable run and not even going from the COVID lows, you know, where it's down at six bucks or negative prices. After you consolidated, when you take the price where you go from basically the breakout of the markets in November of 2020, you pull up a 3-8-2 folks of that entire run, OK? And that run starts at $35, basically, or even lower, $33.64, I have on my chart, up to $84. We've just touched, Teddy, a 3-8-2 retracement, which is a pretty standard retracement on that pullback that we had from 84 bucks. And it's a quick pullback, I agree, back to $68. But it's important for that context sometimes. I don't know if you heard the start of the program. I'm kind of trying to bring listeners into the same thing when you hear pundits like Kramer saying, you know, it's too late to sell no matter what you're talking about. And folks, you got to look at a long-term chart here and see where we've come, see where we've gone. I wouldn't allow even a sentiment like that to come in my head, Teddy, right? Like, I'm not sorry at times, but you start thinking it's too late to sell when you almost you have the biggest company in the world at all time, high as Apple, remarkable resilience. You have the S&Ps within two or three percent. You know, I don't know the exact number. It's two or three percent, you know, basically, as we chop around here. That's one day's move, Teddy, you know, on the market action. So in the crude sentiment, I kind of agree that, listen, if you don't think a 38 percent retracement is capable when we're at negative prices up to over $80 a barrel, basically, of course, a pullback, it's important, folks. OK, so good take on the end. Well, what other currencies are you looking at this week, Teddy, with everything else that's kind of in play? I would I would definitely watch out for the pound, you know, that we saw it. I had a buy signal in the Euro a couple of days ago. So that's that's why I think this is a correction. When you when you look at the dollar index, the major currencies are the Euro and the pound. The Euro, obviously, is set a short term bottom. It has is trying to have a nice little correction. The pound is bobbling off the lows. Like it looks like it wants the bottom, but it also looks like it wants to slam the lows again. You know, now I am short term bullish. The pound, you know, I'm not very bullish, but I can see a nice little correction over the next. I think the dollar is going to be under pressure for the next week or so. You know, unless we have a big turnaround in oil and a big sell off in rates. Now, you mentioned Paul, we heard something out of his mouth now as over the past couple of days that we haven't heard yet. Inflation is here to stay. That's huge, you know, by the Fed taking that stance. That means now they're going to do or lean towards, which I think is always the wrong thing in an inflationary environment, is to raise interest rates. Of course, we can't cut rates because there's nowhere you can go anymore, you know. So and I think you have to watch the bombs like the activity we've had in the forex market. You had a three. This is where we're especially going into Thursday. You know, after we spoke on Wednesday, you had a three dollar move into 30 year treasury bonds on a holiday market off of no news, a rally. OK, so that's where you've that right there gives you weakness in the dollar that set us up for weakness. Then you had the sell off of ten dollars in the oil market on a Friday holiday market. So when you combine that level of market action in those two variables, which the interest rate trade is always on the table for the forex markets, the oil trade we know we've been talking about it's been back on for a couple of months. It's there. So when you have that level of movement, you know what I'm saying? It's sure to shake up the other ones. So now, as long as like I'm saying, as long as in the short run, oil stabilizes kind of where it's at. You don't see an interest rate move that I think you're going to see a bounce in the pound. So you get a rally in the pound is very likely to see a continuation in the euro, very likely, but not very extended. The US dollar Swiss is the one where I think you're going to get some more. Teddy, hang with us for one second. All right, because we're going to break. We'll be right back. We'll be right back, folks. Welcome back, folks. We get the S&P's up 48 points right now. We're talking to our man, Teddy Kegsdad. And Teddy, I just didn't want you to have to rush through that because I like the way you were working through each one towards the end. They're just talking about whether it was, you know, the crude, the pullback, the forex markets, how they were reacting. If you could just continue with what you were saying there. Well, so the Swiss like the end was one that got batted down pretty hard. I think it's an overdone break, but I still think it's prodding the lows right now. And like we have the oil numbers coming out today. Oil is up a little bit right now on the day. That's what's really dictating these trades, as far as, like I said, I think it's a correction. So I think you're going to still see the US dollar Swiss tread on support for the next couple of sessions or so. And then we get to we already spoke about the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, those are two that are just in the gutter. I would be very careful with any bounce in those markets, period, right now, especially with the lockdowns in Australia. US dollar Canada, that's a touchy trade. It's been pressuring resistance right now. And I think a lot of that has to do with with the current trend of what happened over the past couple of sessions. You know, I'd be very cautious buying the US dollar Canada right now. That's a very touchy one. It's in the middle of an area where long term it's a bear still. It's in an upside correction. And there's just too many variables there. It's hard to lock in a trend on that one. But the thing I think you really need to key off of is that right now, all these markets are in a short term correction, or at least you should view it as a short term correction and not a trend change. Never try and pick a top. OK, that's important. And especially with the way the bonds and the oil market have moved these markets over the past week. If you start to see a big sell off the 30 year and the 10 year bond, and if you see oil get another five, six dollars higher back up into the 70 mid 70s or something like that, we're back on the regular trade where we were a week and a half ago, meaning that dollar bulls will come raging back. So and markets tend to go out like they come in. So you've had an aggressive sell off in the US dollar yen, an aggressive sell off in the US dollar Swiss. Don't think that if those other markets turn, that we're not going to see the yen back up at one 15. I mean, you don't have a three dollar sell off in the end on a holiday. You know, it's not. I love the way you walk it through, man, understanding how the commodities are driving the currencies or driving the action. Well, Teddy, we appreciate the update, man. We look forward to talking to you next week. All right, have a great one, man.