 If you've been waiting for a juicy slay of MLB DFS tonight is your night because we have got star pitchers Pretty much across the board It has the feel of an opening day type slate because there are so many good names available For tonight, it's not just like your typical good names, but like there are some sneaky ones under the radar as well I think it sets up for a pretty fun night We're gonna break down my top picture for tonight some other guys I think that our contention for the top spot of value play I like and the top stacks to get you said for Friday's action welcome on into the solo shot That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire calm. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire calm here to break down Friday night's 13 game main slate with lock set for 705 p.m. Eastern for tonight and despite there being 13 games for today I've got no weather notes the temperatures higher Then they have been previously in a lot of places. There isn't a lot of rain to note either so Fingers crossed. I kind of think we're good to go to set it forget it have some fun on your Friday Hopefully win some cash for tonight will break down my top options on the slate in just bit But first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Especially on Fridays because it's not just the MLB podcast each weekday We have our UFC podcast during Friday with Austin Swain I've got NASCAR as well breaking down Kansas for this weekend That should be posted probably closer to around 11 o'clock or so this morning to get you set for all of that so Fridays are fun here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast see but also we have the PGA championship next week Brandon and I recording the PGA podcast Monday instead of Tuesday to give you more time to fill out your line To get all those right as they are posted just hit the scribe wherever you listen to your podcast on the number fire Daily fantasy podcast feed and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Hey soccer fans this season fan duel and captain Morgan are teaming up to give you a one-of-a-kind soccer contest to spice up game day Introducing captain Morgan soccer pick them a weekly fantasy contest that is entirely free to play the contest is simple All you have to do is answer 10 questions about captain Morgan and that week's soccer matchup People with the most correct answers will earn their share of cash prizes head over to fan duel calm slash free games slash captain Morgan in spice up game day with a free shot at cash prizes every Saturday No purchase necessary must be 21 plus to enter location restrictions apply void where prohibited see terms at fan duel Calm pitching preview for this Friday main slate despite the fact we got a lot of studs They don't come with super super high salaries because Max Scherzer is the highest salary guy in the slate He's just 10-7. I think that's very reasonable max read is 10-3 Clayton Kershaw 10-2 Garrett Cole is $10,000. We have Kevin Gauzman at $9,800 you Darvish in 94 Logan Webb at 9000 and then Josiah Gray Sonny Gray Fromber Valdez and Dane Dunning are the others at $8,000 are higher and this is a great flavor pitching I still feel Very firm despite the fact we have a lot of guys here that Max Scherzer is the top guy for tonight He just does the best job of checking every single box The first thing is that Scherzer has the highest strikeout right on the slate. It's at 34 percent Nobody else's above 31.5 percent that 31.5 percent mark is by Kevin Gauzman Who is on the road? Scherzer is at home. He's facing the Mariners here who have hit well so far this year They have a 109 WRC plus against righties on their current active roster, but they're not a low strikeout team And some other guys on the slate do run into that issue for tonight the Mariners 21 percent strikeout rate It's a bit below league average, but it's not bad It's also the best part for pitching on this late because it's 66 degrees That's better than Smotherspots and Cityfield in general skews towards pitchers I've got Scherzer projected for a hundred pitches for tonight, which puts a strikeout projection at 8.4 Which is a very high number regardless of what that salary may be plus Scherzers had a tough stretch this year because three of his six darts have come against the Phillies which leads to a lot of familiarity But he's still a double-digit strikeouts twice. So I don't have a lot of reservations with him I think that he's the top guy for today and I feel good about putting him there So max Scherzer to me by himself at the top and I think you can battle it out for second place But to me Scherzer does belong at the top So the question is if Scherzer is a no-brainer top option the battle for second comes down to Garrett Cole Kevin Gossman and Clayton Kershaw. So let's touch on all three here quickly. Cole is on the road facing the White Sox They are a low strikeout team this year 18 strikeout rate against righties Cole is on the road. Those are two negatives. They're low strikeout rate match up on the road Gossman is also on the road, but he's facing the race with a 25 strikeout rate against righties Gossman is pitching really well right now as mentioned a 31 strikeout rate now that he's throwing more sliders So Gossman gets a high strikeout matchup Kershaw Obviously is throwing well too 29 strikeout rate across five starts with a 2.39 skill interactive era, which is Among the best marks on this slate He's also at home facing a Philly's team that has in a small sample a 29 strikeout rate against lefties this year The big issue for Kershaw is pitch count I've got him projected to 85 Whereas I have both Cole and Gossman and Scherzer projected at 100 That's a pretty big gap Which is why I have Gossman projected for more strikeouts than Kershaw The matchup for Cole means I actually do have a higher projection on Kershaw than him So I'm going to rank them in order of the strikeout projections, which is Gossman number two behind Scherzer I will go Kershaw third then Cole fourth, but all three to me Are in their own tier for tonight Scherzer 1a all three of those guys fighting for 1b And then everyone else fighting for the next spots after that Among the value plays the one I like the most by a decent margin is Eduardo Rodriguez I consider Dane Dunning here because Dunning finally getting a more full leash from a pitch count perspective They're letting him go deeper in games. I've got him for 95 for tonight, which puts his strikeout projection at 5.7 That's pretty good. So I don't mind Dunning He's 8000 though whereas Rodriguez is 72 and He's down there for a reason. He's not pitching great right now But Rodriguez is at home in a good matchup, which means I'm okay taking a swipe here I do want to emphasize though that things are not great for Rodriguez right now He has a 6.3 swinging strike rate So his 23 strikeout rate could come down based on that number I think part of that though is due to the schedule Rodriguez has faced He's gone up against in order the white socks red socks yankies twins dodgers and asterisks There is not an easy matchup in any of those and it's especially true when you're a lefty facing The white socks facing the yankies facing the asterisks the lefty That's tough and it actually makes it a bit more impressive that Rodriguez Hasn't had the bottom fallout yet Orioles are a much better spot for him They have an 84 w RC plus against lefties with a 27 strikeout rate And they're not generating a lot of power Which could help the issues that Rodriguez has had with bad at balls He's had some issues there which haven't cropped up for him previously. Again the salary 72 I don't need the salary savings necessarily because The other races are I think lower salary than they should be but I'm not opposed to it. It would allow me to go nuts at course field with the Rockies I could stack some other teams early like so all of the bitter Rodriguez in parts Due to the match up in part through the salary, but I think for me The majority of the slate will revolve around those eighth tier guys first And I want that upside that they bring and with so many of them here The odds you need one of them to you know, really blow the lid off probably pretty high for today So with that in mind, let's turn to our stacks and We do have a course field game for today. I'm not super into the Royals But I will be into the Rockies and I think that they are the top option Of this slate they're facing zack cranky and cranky has a 2.67 era this year Part of that is skill You know, he's he's a crafty guy But there is an element of luck to it too and that luck could run out at course field In the past cranky has outperformed his peripherals by having very good bad at ball data He doesn't have that as much this year. His hard hit rate is up to 42 It was 35 last year the fly ball rate 41 versus 32 last year And those are big big deviations and it comes with just an eight percent strikeout rate May two percent walk rate his strikeout profit fan dual sportsbook is two and a half I believe it's shaded towards the under that's where we're at right now with zack cranky So what he's doing right now is letting up the ball and play on about 90 percent of plate appearances And 42 percent of those balls in play are being hard hit That's probably not going to work out at course field That doesn't pick ranky so far this year, but he's faced some pretty weak offenses and Just that formula is tough in a park this good for often So it makes sense to me to be super high on the rockies here cranky both last year and early this year has had Some pretty extreme reverse platoon splits where he's let up a lot of hard contact righty's Versus not as much to lefties which puts I think cj cron in a good spot same thing for connor joe Randall gritching has missed a couple games, but it sounds like it's just a stomach thing So I bet he's in there I would actively prioritize the righties over the lefties I'm fine with ryan mcman and charlie blackman But I would say the righties get a boost here and are slightly the preferred side of the platoon against cranky So bump up the righties and be high on them, especially if we get like a lower salary gallic rogers or Anyone else in there? I think that would be Advantages to say some salary and make that stack easier to get to alongside max shares Now yesterday, uh, I was pretty into dillon sees against the yankees You know the strikeouts were there the rest was not today though. It's very different the yankees blew up yesterday It's not point choosing. I think this is a situation where it does make sense to go at them facing vince. Velasquez I think the yankees very good number two stack for today. Velasquez Does have some more velocity this year and his results have been good. You got a 3.9 70 array But he's still struggling in the same areas that he used to Specifically, velasquez is letting up hard contact He's letting up a 46 hard hit rate this year with a 48 fly ball And those numbers are actually worse than his marks last year and velasquez really struggled there last year Plus on top of that his strikeout rate is down. It's 21 percent versus 24 percent It hasn't hurt him thus far. He's allowed just three home runs across five starts But and just one earned run is past two starts But it's tough to see him Skirting his way around danger for too long especially Against an offense like this. They got a 115 wrc plus against righties low strikeout rates high walk rates It's a rough match up for velasquez. So i'll be on the yankees offense for sure for today Now within the yankees stack it kind of feels like anthony rizzo has been A bit underappreciated this year and I'm basing this mostly on the home run prop market Whereas odds tend to be I would say longer than they should be but He's got a 50 fly ball right against righties great plate discipline Actions a couple stolen bases as well. So he's not a value play at 36, but I think he's under souring I think that I want to like if i'm Deeming or you know doling out building block type uh monikers these guys I would say you put judge you put stan there for sure I think rizzo is is in there as well, especially because he's a little bit lower salary than those guys So I do think to me rizzo at 36 despite being not low salary is worthwhile stan's actually 36 as well judge 43 but I do think that that is a fair number both for rizzo and for stanton for today The final stack is More of a volatile one which could bite us, but you know kind of fun That's the astros Uh, it could be great or it could be terrible And I think that the upside in the great is worth a sniff for today The astros are facing jeziah gray who has some The last cas ish qualities. He does get strikeouts. He's got a 26 strikeout rate this year versus 25 last year I think that's gonna stick. I don't expect that to go away But it's the non strikeout plate appearances that bother you with jeziah gray his walk rate is 12 He's letting up a 50 fly ball rate and a 43 heart rate He had similar issues last year too, which is why his era was 5.48 and it's why He has some rough outings He had a four runs to the mets and the marlins at home But if a couple home runs the angels last time out So yeah, he cannot shut down outings He held the giants in the braves two very good offenses scoreless for a combined 11 innings Which is why this stack is volatile But there is upside within it, especially when he's facing an offense as good as the astros So I don't mind stacking the astros here, even if it is a high risk situation. I think that they are worth that Given the upside presented in the profile that gray has One guy I do think worth discussing here is michael brantley I have always been low on him and if i'm stacking the astros typically i'm doing so Just skipping over brantley entirely. I just teased into the upside that I wanted But his isos 134 and in 2022 That's not nearly as bad as it was in 2021. Etc. Etc. The fly ball right from brantley against right. He's 37 percent. So I'm not actively seeking him out But i'm also not crossing him off And you know, I still prefer kyle pucker who is 35 you're don alvarez. Obviously at 38 both those guys to me Are pretty under salaryed. I don't mind, you know, the the fill in guys who get in there guys like uh chas mccormick and stuff like that, but I think if you're looking at value plays on this team outside of mccormick I'm okay with going brantley and I prefer a much over julie gouriel If you're looking at the the value plays i think that brantley's upside's better than gouriel. So Changing my tune a bit on him. I'm still not again like Super itchy to get there, but if I've got a using to make an astro stack work with scherzer I'm okay with that and that is a Change from how I viewed him previously. Let's move now to things to watch three more stacks I think are worth discussing for today. I'm not opposed to some rangers stacks They're facing nick pavetta that has led up a 51 hard hit rate this year with a 40 percent fly ball rate It's led to some really poor results He has faced a tough schedule and the rangers are not tough But uh, and that's why they're lower on this list, but I would still be okay with some exposure here Getting guys like core seager and stuff like that in there for this or this situation where the rangers actually are In a good matchup. I think the twins are pretty similar to the rangers They're facing erin savalli and savalli has gotten more strikeouts recently But still tons of fly balls tons of hard contact allowed The twins offense right now is not I wouldn't think great doesn't feel great outside of baron buxton Which is why they're lower on this list, but some individuals here could be worth a look for some one-off So okay with the rangers. Okay with the twins Similar vibe on the mets facing marco glanzales is not getting a lot of strikeouts this year letting up enough hard contact and fly balls It's mostly pita lanza and then the the lower end lefty bangers. They have out there I think they work for one-offs, but And I think these three to me at least pretty clearly below the other ones If you got to go there for some value totally okay with that and I would be fine go in there, but um Preference for me for the top three stacks for today Let's go into the weekend here with some dinger calls for this friday slate The boring one is cj crone mentioned that is that cranky specifically struggles letting up hard contact righties crone is a righty He's that coarse field It's as boring as can be cj crone to me the top dinger call for today the fun one We're gonna do it. I'm gonna go michael brantley. He only has two of them run so far this year Probably have like three all of last year. That's an exaggeration, but you know Um either way, it's not a guy who goes to be very often but I just think again, this is a good situation for him um He's in a better park for offense for tonight So although it doesn't make you feel great. I am okay with michael brantley Eight home runs for brantley last year. I don't want to shortchange him too much, but um, I would say If he's gonna do it tonight might be a good night So the home run calls cj crone michael brantley brantley definitely a different one than usual But I think that uh for this setup it works for sure That is all that we have here for today on the solo shop But as mentioned a lot of good stuff You're coming up on this friday on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed USC NASCAR all in the same place in the same feed and the pga championship podcast coming up on monday hit subscribe If you like what you hear leave us a rating and review if you've got questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your mlb dfs lineups We'll talk to you once again on monday to get you said for another week of mlb dfs This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network