 Hello and welcome to the Monday market update with me David Madden. Today's date is Monday 15 July 2019 and the time has just gone at 12.35 for the summer time. It's been a broadly positive start to the European session. Stock trade has been a bit higher overnight in Asia and we've had a bit of a quite a start but largely a positive start to the European session and we've had quite a few economic reports from China. The biggest one of course was the second quarter Chinese GDP number which came in at 6.2%. It's lowest level in a few decades. It's no surprise that China is slowing down but it came at 6.2% which was in line with the economists' expectations. I keep in mind the economy grew by 6.4% in the first quarter so the economy is cooling which is of no great surprise but at least the report came in in line with expectations. There are other reports out as well, fixed asset investment which actually came in, which actually showed an increase on the month and came in as expected as did industrial output and as did retail sales. So there are sections, certain sections of the Chinese economy which are actually not only the management can beat economists' expectations, they're actually slightly bucking the trend and actually edging a bit higher. So there is a bit of a trend that are by and large a bit more optimistic on the back of those numbers. Obviously the economy is nowhere near as strong as it was in 2011 but it's encouraging to see that some of the aspects are picking up China in the last couple of years and the last year or two especially with the trade spat in the United States, they've had very different easing policies in anything in the form of changing of banking lending ratios or or else anything from local infrastructure projects to trying to get the economy going at a quicker pace and things seem to be going at an okay state. So what we've seen is things like mining stocks have actually been helped off today on the back of that and the back of the better expected numbers say industrial production and fixed asset investment, the Australian dollar has also done quite well out of it. But to be properly honest it's been a relatively quiet day in terms of news out of Europe. I'll take a quick look now at the week ahead and then we'll run through some major markets. Look at the week ahead, the article can be found on our website www.cfcmarkets.com. I'm under news and analysis, you will find where the bulk of the updates myself and the other analysts do get posted to. So we've already covered the Chinese figures, the manufacturing, the industrial production and GDP and so on. So today, Monday through Thursday, we have a number of US banks reporting their quarterly earnings. So there today we have a city group and then Trump the week, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan as well as a few with the smaller banks. On Tuesday on Wednesday we have UK unemployment and earnings and also the CPI. On Wednesday we have Eurozone CPI. On Wednesday we have Canadian CPI. Wednesday we have second quarter figures from both eBay and Netflix. And on Thursday we have Australian unemployment numbers. So I'll start off now by having a look at some of the major markets starting off now with the FTSE 100. So as you can see, the wider picture is that throughout the late for 2019, FTSE 100 like many European indices has been in a solid upward trend. Granted, we've had seen some size but by and large the trend has been very much the upside. Earlier this month, the FTSE 100 were not hit a level not seen since August last year. Even though last week was a positive week for US stocks, European stocks drifted lower but only slightly. So we see a bit of drift lower and now we are seeing the market edge a little higher. This could be the beginning potentially of the market looking to get a press on higher and retest this area here in around 7600. I know that the upper trend is not very much in play. And if you do manage to take out the recent highs here, we could be looking at targeting this zone here in around 7,794. But even if you do manage to drift lower from this area, if you take out this area here in around 7,470, the big kind of psychological number of 7,400 might act as support. And so potentially could this blue line here, the 50 moving average, which comes into play at 7368. Notice how on a few occasions it acted as support in June and if metric has acted as support in the past, it makes it more likely it will do so in the future but obviously there are no guarantees. And it will be practicing the 50 moving average across some other equity markets. Take a look now in Germany on the DAX. Similar situation earlier this month, the DAX at a level once again not seen since August last year. It did drift lower last week. We are seeing a market actually turning up, we are seeing a market fitting higher this morning. And if you do look to press on higher from here, we could really get retesting this area here at the recent highs of in around 12,660. And then if you go beyond that, you could be targeting this out here at around 12,887. But once again it has been in a wider upper trend in 2019. Granted some of the sell-offs have been recently aggressive but the big picture trend is still very much in place. We can see here that the market has come to be above its 50 moving average, this blue line here which comes to play at 12,188. On a few occasions that metric did active support, so if you do active support in the past it makes it more likely you will do so in the future. Once again if you do drift lower this region could find some good active support and even drop below it, my support could be far from this area here, the kind of psychology port in 12,000 mark. I take a look at what's going over in the US starting off with the Dow Jones. The Dow Jones, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 all set record highs. So the markets are in very strong shape over the United States. Even today the fact that we actually had a record day on Friday, it looks as if we're going to set a new record today once the market is open in just under two hours time. So the markets in a strong upward trend that we're looking at is getting a new all-time high so the sentiment is clearly bullish. So if you look to kind of press on higher from here because we're in kind of an uncharted territory as we were, try to look back and looking out for you know kind of big numbers like 27,400, 500 and so on and so forth. But the next you know given that we're comfortably above 27,000, the next kind of the really big psychology number would be 28,000. The market does manage to drift a bit lower. This region here 27,000 might act as a support. It acts as a resistance very very briefly early July on the way up. We just see a bit of consolidation in that area so that region might act as a support should we see a drift lower. And if not this year here in around 26,660, this zone here or maybe even down to 26,500. Not all the time the market is culturally above. It's fitted with the average and that comes into play in around 26,110 there they're about. Take a look now what's going on on the S&P 500. Seven fish with the S&P 500 fresh all-time high was racked up on Friday. The market appears to be looking as if it's going to create a new all-time high when it opens. So the sentiment is clearly bullish. We're currently expecting the market to open around 3,017 so terms we've been looking at potentially looking at numbers like 3,020, 3,040, so on and so forth. If the market does manage to drift a bit lower support can be found from this zone here in around 3,000. It's a big psychological number but also we can see on a few occasions did act as positions as the market was pushing higher. If you do see any moves to the downside we could see fresh bars in the fold because the wider view has been 2019 the market has been within an upward trend granted this was a fairly sizeable pullback but nonetheless buying on the dip over the longer of the grand scheme of things proved to be a proper strategy. And even if you do drop below 3,000 this region here in around 2,952 is this this zone here. 2,955, 2,952 this zone here might act as support. Once again the S&P 500 is comfortably above its 50 day moving average and the reason why I can reference that in all in all the markets and made reference to it on the on the plus 200 chart is because Dow theory tells us that the averages must confirm each other and basically while the plus 200 the DAX and the Dow and the S&P 500 are all above their respective 50 day moving averages it makes it more likely that the bullish trend across all those markets is going to continue. And then conversely if we're in a downtrend and if we're driving lower and all those markets are below their respective 50 day moving averages it would be more confident that the negative trend would continue. So essentially while markets are moving in the same direction you can be more confident of the wider moves. Take a look now at the gold market. So it was late June a few weeks ago when the market hit a six year high and to be honest sort of range bound since then it's you know it's down as long as the market holds in around going to 1382 it's likely that we're going to see the wider upward trend continue but we also the market has seen you know it's not as difficult to get below 1385 3092 by the same time it's also found it very difficult to actually retest the recent you know the most recent high of it around 1439 so you seem to be kind of range bound for the time being if you do break above the recent high of it around 1439 we could be lucky you're targeting 1485 1485 hasn't been seen you know once again well since May 2013 so keep an eye out for that should we actually have a fairly size of the break above 1439. If you drift lower this region here in around in around 1385 3082 might act as support and if you go below that this is the area here in around 1360 might act as support but you know that the wider upward trend is still very much in play in place and the market not much ago in a six year high so I'll give you that kind of thumbs up just so I can positive um I've got a bullish sentiment is on gold take a look now what's going on on the oil market starting to bring crude so decent rally between December and April 30 size the move to the downside for a decent correction but since then we've had a nice series once you know since then we've had a nice series of the higher high the higher low and the higher higher again and we're back up all the the the straight line here the 20 moving average at 66 spot 69 and if you can hold above that we could be looking at pushing a higher from here potentially retesting this area here in at 70 spot 63 and he moves to the downside good points of support from this region here in around six 63 bucks a barrel I'll potentially I'll do this area here in around in around 60 spot 30 so this this area here keep them out of the if you do see a fairly sizable sell off to the downside turning our attention now to WTI similar situation WTI a very large rally between December and April and we've had you know a nice fairly sizable sell off so we had the lower low the lower high the lower low but similar with WTI and similar with recruit rather we have been bouncing back since about since early to mid-June so we saw the higher high the higher low and the higher high so it would be and we're cut to be above it's 200 moving average and while we hold above the 200 moving average at 57 spots 70 it's likely we could see the kind of the more recent the the recent bounce back since early to mid-June continue so we get a press on that from here we could be looking at this region here in around 64 dollars per barrel and he moves to the downside could find some support from this region here in a 57 region or perhaps even about this area here in a 55 spot 91 and if you do have a size of break below that it could take us back down towards 54 and like what I was saying about um how the the U.S. and the the Funtzi the Dow the DAX the S&P 500 we're all above their respective 50 moving averages two major all contracts are above both above their respective 200 moving averages so you're trading one one of the all contracts keep on what's the what's the other one's doing and essentially while both markets are above their respective 20 moving averages you can be more confident at thinking of that the bullish move in the last five or six weeks is going to continue take a look now what's going on over in currencies it's been a fairly quite morning in the currencies ever no euro dollar and and starting down have to really move the whole lot so the wider trend about 2019 it's been into very much in the downside on euro dollar stage a fairly decent comeback coming into late June but notice how the market appears it kind of turned over on itself yet again we're back below the tour day moving average did manage to um find some support in around the kind of 112 area but essentially while we're some of the tour day moving average which comes into play in around once about 13 22 while we hold below that metric it's likely that we could see kind of further pressure to the downside and a continuation of the you know the wider downward trend if we take off the kind of 112 area we could be looking at retesting this zone here in around one spot 1110 and a break below that could take us back down towards the kind of psychology important 110 I take a look now at the sterling versus the sterling versus the the US dollar you know once again very much kind of wider downward trend as it's been in place for quite a few months granted we did meet going to find some support from this area here in at once by 2440 but it did appear that that the the downward trend is still very much in place we're still not anyway close to kind of retesting the fifth day moving average and I said to you while we can hold below this zone here in around kind of 126 it's likely that you know we could see the market turning over itself yet again retesting once by 2440 I think I'll blow that we could be taking us back down towards this area here in a one spot 2365 if you do you have a size of break above 126 we could be looking at retesting the kind of 128 region and it's only really if you go above 128 because then we actually you know begin to think you know what maybe maybe the downward trend that's been in place for a few months has come to an end and we could be looking at pressing and higher from there one last thing before I go I will be hosting a live seminar on a Wednesday the 17th July 3rd 1300s per the summertime 1 p.m. UK time covering the what's going on in relation to US banking season the major US banks that as I covered at the beginning of the webinar or the video are reporting their figures this week some have already reported by Wednesday others will be reporting on Thursday and it's going to be a short kind of live webinar investing what's got what's been the team throughout the the the kind of bank is the reporting season for the US banks I want to take a look out for in banks that have yet to report their figures yet one last thing before we go to the comments to make in this video or any of the other videos we've made here at CMC markets please feel free to leave review and reviews thank you very much