 Okay, I decided I would speak to you from here because in a formal life I was a student of theology and standing in front of this always reminds me of the church. In addition to the sound of this beautiful room, I mean the room is nice but the sound is difficult. So in any case, I used to be a professional musician for 15 years in the producer and as I said yesterday, I became a futurist by accident. Essentially by writing a book called The Future of Music about the music business in 2004 people started calling me and said you are a futurist, can you tell us about the future? I had no idea what that was but here I am 12 years later. So I'm going to talk to you today about new technologies and if you have observed the media in the last couple of days there is a distinct question that comes up about technology and the question I have marked in red here is this technology actually in service of people and planet. That's one of the key questions we'll discuss later but let's start here. My company, The Future Agency, we have a simple motto and it wasn't raining when Noah built the ark so we help our clients anticipate the future, we have over 100 clients worldwide including big companies like Sony and the BBC and Google and others. So I'll start with this, I think first we can safely say that I call this the digital default. You know we're entering a world where everything is digital our music, our movies, our health records, our telephone calls, everything is digital and that can be very interesting for a lot of reasons but also very scary at the same time but if you're looking at this graph here a population of 8 billion roughly in 2020 65% of them will be connected to the internet and that is changing our world very rapidly. It's changing the world of knowledge, of information, of politics there is not a single politician that is not connected to social networks today. Of course there are a few left which I'll talk about in a second we can safely say digital default is here. We have a huge thing that's happening now with disruptive technologies that you may have experienced. Here's a short list from McKinsey, you can download this, just look for the McKinsey International Disruptive Report things like the mobile internet, the automation of knowledge work this should be quite scary for some of you considering that we do knowledge work the internet of things, the cloud computing and 3D printing you're aware of all of these trends I won't get into it but McKinsey is saying roughly if you count all these together we'll talk about a new economy that's unfolding it's over 25 trillion dollars in terms of value what's happening there so basically with technology there's lots of things happening this is a scary slide, talk about the automation of knowledge work and so what they're saying basically there could be about 110 million workers are replaced by technology based on smart technology that does the research work which is kind of interesting discussion we should get into this so you've seen this, the operation of the Pope the last one, 2005, the previous one, when people were greeting him and underneath that full of mobile phones but the next Pope we will not be seeing any mobile phones because mobile will be implanted in our heads allegedly so it could be something like this, holographics, Google glass, augmented reality let me remind you of this, I'm a musician, I'm not a tech person you don't have to be a geek to understand what this means these things aren't geek instruments it's like car navigation this came 15 years ago, car navigation was only for experts and it took up the whole passenger seat now car navigation is for my mother, she's 75 years old she can operate car navigation so technology is really mind-blowing and quick enough we're on an exponential curve of technology development so our world is moving 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 it's moving 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and so on so the next step is 8, not 5 this is a scary thing about technology and I think something we have to look at in the digital society we're reaching inflection points you can see that here, two of them being about basically what they call a digital society in a sustainable world and basically what we're heading into is we call this the network society it's viral, it's exponential, it's noisy and it's inevitable this is an interesting discussion we should have later what that means in light of the recent security and privacy debate that has raged with Snowden and the NSA but basically what we're seeing here is that we're now in the position of nuclear power we have in our hands more information than the president of the United States 15 years ago, we have no mobile phones so we can do a lot of damage with this basically what we're seeing is that we're at the level of infants in terms of ethics but in technology we're adults and these issues will be a major issue for the next 10 years President Obama, yes, we scan basically what's happening here is that with this increased power just like nuclear energy comes very much increased responsibility and we haven't worked this out yet if you think this through what happened in the last two weeks with the data scandal that we're seeing in the UK and the US and other countries as well basically the government scanning every single citizen under the pretense of protection of terrorism this is a scary proposition the books of George Orwell have in the last four weeks the sales have quadrupled not surprisingly because people feel like they're in an Orwellian society look at this slide of Americans of course, any Americans here? different world over there according to the slide at least the majority of Americans support the prosecution of the whistleblower who is telling us about what happened so I call this aberrations in the digital default because we're living in a digital world and it's basically inevitable but what's happening here is really quite scary that most Americans think that he should indeed be prosecuted I don't know what your thoughts are on this and of course this is just an average American whatever that means but it's an interesting debate we should have later in Turkey four weeks ago the Prime Minister, I was scheduled to speak in Turkey was cancelled the Prime Minister said, Erdogan said that social media is the worst menace to society so he's roughly talking about 2 billion people that use social media in addition to being a menace to society I think what we're seeing right now is because of technology this kind of idea of big corporations, big countries, big politicians is reverting to this kind of idea to where the masses actually are getting empowered and that's what you see in Turkey right now this is a trend that we're going to see in the future we discussed briefly about capitalism yesterday I'll get back to it in a second but this obviously relates to our business model and my new book that I'm working on is called from eco to eco and its main topic is the sustainable capitalism if that even exists that sounds like an oxymoron already but anyway the domes of protection are cracking and we're seeing this in many different ways first of course with media, with businesses, organizations with states, brands and leaders that this idea of living under a protected world like we do in Switzerland with a banking secrets for example you cannot sustain that in a connected world you can't live under a protected dome whether you're a record label or Switzerland or Turkey so we're seeing this as a global symptom as a consequence of technology we're seeing a new generation of people not the millennials but the ones after it all is the generation re that is the generation that is reconsidering relearning, recycling, refusing, rethinking and that's obviously not us most of us you know we're a little bit above that but it's the kids between say 20 and 35 some of you still qualify for that so this is a big change in terms of how they use technology and they're the ones who are driving the economy they're the ones who are questioning attention monopolies like television and using the internet instead you know most kids that now have their own households they don't get satellite or pay TV they use the internet they are no longer in the same speed of things that we are now in terms of ecology this is really changing how ecology works for example the idea of using machine to machine intelligence to improve efficiency for agricultural it has been worked out that basically if we use technology to further how we plant and how we water we could save 40% of resources so the switch to renewable energy plus the switch to smart technologies sensor networks and so on could basically solve the problem so technology in my view again I'm not a technologist it needs to drive another kind of growth another kind of growth means not growth and profits at all costs but a different kind of growth the CEO of Unilever says in order to live within the natural limits of the planet we have to decouple growth from the environmental impact and I think this is going to be the mission for the next 20 years and other kind of growth it has been called by John Alcotton you're probably aware of this the triple bottom line people, planet, profit I think this is one of the key topics is to figure out how that actually all goes together so I think when this position we're now in a jumping into a different fishbowl and as futureists this is going to be a real challenge because this fishbowl basically means that all of those kids that are connected on the internet they are the next billion futureists in the true sense of a word they are actually doing part of our work now at this very moment this means transformation for us here's a good image about transformation you may know the game where you can make a robot out of a car and vice versa that's going to be our future to quickly morph into a different shape could be quite a challenge so I think in general our world is moving from empires as we've seen, you know, Microsoft big countries, big states big banks, big insurances to networks it's a great movie it's called Connected by Tiffany Schlein which talks about how everything is becoming interdependent as you can see right now in Turkey's position as possibly entering the European Union is significantly threatened by Ertegun's response to the wishes of people about his park so it's a major issue we're heading towards ecosystems not empires and this is a big societal change for money, for financial institutions for everything the internet of things, you heard about this connectivity of devices sensor networks, connected networks and so on but here's a key point we should not be in a position like this to where we say, you know, we have technology that will basically solve all of our problems I lived in California for 14 years and that's kind of the view of things in California is that if something goes wrong there's nothing to change it and it's called the techno fix mentality and while I really understand how this works in the likes of Ray Kurzweiler of course, right on top of that movement I really believe that technology alone is not sufficient in terms of solving our global issues technology is a crucial part of this but will not solve the problem by itself for example, if you think that we can engineer the environment we basically killed our atmosphere already so we're going to engineer it with technology and control it and I think we're a little bit ahead of ourselves there so technology alone is not the answer I think it's the storytelling that makes us human computers don't tell stories I mean they tell stories in another way but not in a human way and this is very important for us as futurists we have to tell stories about the future which I came up with myself that's why it's extra scary the green line shows you the decline of regular human jobs whether it's checkout clerks or financial analysts basically jobs that robots and software can do and this will be a decline of up to 80 or 90 percent in the next 20 years a lot of our jobs will evaporate because of this if you're a grocery checkout clerk we have our radio frequency chip to do that work and that's already in there so basically what we're going to see is that technology brings us back to what really matters which is truly human jobs and that's the other line here the slightly blue line that are currently being developed and I believe our job is a truly human job because it requires hopefully some creativity so we are drawing information you know if you're on Twitter you know what I'm talking about we're literally drowning in information but we're stark for knowledge and this is an important point what we need really is wisdom, learnings, relevance relevance and depth not more noise great slide here from a French philosopher I forgot his name but he says logic proves intuition discovers we have to ask ourselves do we want to live in a world that is run by logic then we'll live in a world of machines in many ways you could argue we're heading that way especially considering the NSA and others creating an algorithm that puts you into the no fly zone and there's nothing you can do about it so I think intuition discovers we're moving into a world of eco systems and I didn't come up with this picture actually I found this when I was looking for my topic on Tumblr but it's a good picture we're moving into a world where it's more like a biosphere and I don't mean this in the green sense I mean it's in the organizational sense and we hinted at this several times yesterday social, local, mobile in America they call this solo mo which is basically you know the social networks mobile devices and so on that is a huge chance for futurists and I see many of us not using this enough I would like to encourage you to take that position you know just take a look on Twitter what people are doing and futurists there very few of us are actually part of this conversation that needs to change I think this is a walk drive for futurists in terms of how we can do things to take out this simple blog that I've been running on Tumblr which was just purchased by Yahoo in nine months this is a blog about the future of business in nine months I've got 33,420 followers using this platform that essentially takes no time whatsoever to share stuff from my research and I think we could all do this you know this would be very interesting also for the organization because finally we can escape from the tyranny of distribution if you wanted to have a future show on television you have to go to the BBC or you know wherever you go to this coverage channel and they would say now you can do your own future show on any web-based platform like YouTube why are we not using this why are so little of us actually using this platform of distribution I think it's important social networks are the next broadcasters the next TV stations then again you know in context with the current data issues you may think about this again but I'm doing this anyway video is a new text if you're not making videos about what you're saying it's like not writing I'm serious I'm not making a joke here in five years more than 80% of the entire internet traffic will be on video people watch videos about topic this is a crucial way of information we are becoming part of a global brain this is very important for us and this is already happening here so I'm quite happy about that we're moving into the cloud I touched on this earlier education is the best example you may have noticed that the biggest initiative this year are about digital education massively online learning communities for called MOGs this is a very very big trend that will be very helpful to our cause as well consider offering a course on a platform called Coursera which is just now offering the first courses they're free of course for futurism check it out Coursera like the Coursera in terms of what we do the way that we disseminate our message is really dramatically changing if you look at this network paradigm picture from the 60s we're moving in a world that used to be locked big companies big universities, big banks, big governments big writers now to a world that is interconnected and liquid fluid and I think this is something we need to learn we need to be fluid as part of a larger system not within our own system and this is of course quite difficult it's not either or it actually has a combination of those things together I'm going to come to the end so we can move to the panel ok so there's a great book you should read if you're in the future business called Blykonomics I didn't write it but it's still a good book it's from a friend of mine and it's talking about how liking companies and people is becoming a currency there's a machine from Pepsi that if you like Pepsi on Facebook it will give you a free canned drink this is just an example of what's happening and every single bank and organization wants you to like them mostly on Facebook but also somewhere else and we have to be careful of not becoming what I call a hedonic treadmill you know basically say look how great we are every 4 seconds it's probably also not the purpose of social networks big data I'll skip on this except to say that I think one of the key issues today is that our data is becoming like oil like really valuable material and this is going to be a major topic for the next 10 years we're essentially moving from the oil economy to the data economy because of technology and there again we have NSA inside in most of those the Google self-driving car the switch towards open if you're looking what's happening for example in mobile phones you know an Android system has beat Apple by a long shot because they are an open interactive system so open is actually in most ways beating closed the end of silos we can't think of this as being in one particular place anymore we're now in different places at the same time I think this is kind of this idea that we are over here and these guys are over there and that goes for academic versus non-academic as well so some quick comments on futurism and then I'll wrap up first the digital default is here so we need to embrace this this is inevitable but we also need to think about what that needs for our data for our privacy for who do we work with why do we do things the Faustian Borgans that we strike with the like of Facebook and Google something to think about I think we are as future like artists that aim to expose possibilities for transformation and that's the world that I strive for with my clients is I don't want to come to them I have some great arguments and spreadsheets why you should be doing XYZ I'm trying to show them the possibilities of transformation this is the key part logic proves what innovation discovers I think we need to refocus on creating new ecosystems and not putting band-aids on the old one this is a tough mission as Buckminster Fuller said basically engineering a new system is always preferable when it's about the old system we need a different kind of growth sustainable natural capitalism a triple bottom line this is clearly not a plea for socialism the opposite it's a plea for saying that the current system that we have is topping out and I think we are somewhat on the same agenda as discussion of yesterday so I think we should make much better use of the social, local, mobile technologies because everyone else is and I did the other day I checked most of you guys out on the internet in terms of our input on the discussion that's happening on the social, local, mobile internet we are not really part of it and that needs to change I think we have a lot more to say than we say in academic papers we have global distribution channels available and here's a scary part futureing is becoming a default job all of those kids that are currently researching stuff online they think of themselves as futureists they think of themselves as being in the business of defining the future so how do we become indispensable? that's my final question to you this is the key question for our future what's our future role to make us indispensable from the process of creating our future thanks very much