 Max Scherzer said to make his second start off the IL for tonight and he looked fantastic in that first one eleven strikeouts six shutout innings But now facing the Braves and it's on the road It's a very tough assignment for a guy who was hurt not that long ago So our question is do we use Scherzer? Do we load up on him as our top guy or is there someone else we can consider as potentially being the top arm for tonight and Looking at Scherzer comparing him to the field. I kind of think Scherzer despite the tough matchup is a top pitcher for tonight We'll break that down and let you know what I'm seeing for tonight's slate in just one second Welcome on into the solo shot That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to break down Monday's seven game main slate with lock set for 7 10 p.m. Eastern for today so five extra minutes to destroy your lineups before we hit lock for tonight The lone a weather note for today is that it is very very warm in St. Louis today 96 degrees for the Phillies and the Cardinals that is a bump up to batters there I do still like the pitchers in that one. It's miles Nicholas versus Aaron Nola, but Do bump them down a bit due to the weather in St. Louis for today But no no rain as of right now for this slate We'll break down Scherzer versus the field in just one second But first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast V coming up later on today We have our preview of the open championship for PGA DFS with myself and Brandon Gondola Breaking down our favorite golfers in each salary tier on fan dual for this week letting you know Everything you need to get set for this weekend at St. Andrews should be a pretty fun week for some golf So check that out on the Fandall YouTube page will be live there probably around 2 30 p.m. Easterners show and then up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that This season turn K's into cash and big hits into big wins the Fandall sportsbook Right now new customers can step up to the plate with a no sweat first bet of two $1,000 with great promotions every day a safe and secure app and the ability to get paid fast There is no better place to bet America's pastime than on America's number one sportsbook Download the Fandall sportsbook app and sign up today to get started with your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 must be 21 plus and present in select states first online a real money wager only Refund issued is non-withdrawable free free bets that expire 14 days after a seat restricts supply see terms at sportsbook dot fandall dot com gambling problem call 1800 gambler or was a fandall dot com slash RG and Arizona call 1 800 next step or tax next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 order was the ccpg.org slash chat in Louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in New York 1 8 7 7 8 hope and why are text open why in Tennessee called the red line at 1 8 8 9 9 7 8 9 in Wyoming 1 8 105 2 2 4700 or in West Virginia 1 800 gambler Dot net pitching preview for this Monday's main slate no shocker Max Scherzer is the highest salary picture on Fandall checking in at just $10,700 not too bad for the upside he brings max freed facing Max Scherzer Max Max is 10 4 Aranola is 10 1 with Merrill Kelly at 9 2 and Shaw Manaya at Coors at 9,000 with Miles Nicholas Lancelin Alex Cobb the others at $8,000 or higher Now there is risk with Max Scherzer for today. It is just a second start off the IEL He's on the road facing a very good team. It's in a hitter friendly park I still think he is the top guy in the slate by a big margin So if I'm taking Max Scherzer versus the field, I probably need pretty good odds in the field to go with them here The brace are top they have a 119 WRC plus against righties and their current active roster with a 211 iso That's far in a way the best mark on this slate. So it is tough But he's still so good and you know what he did last week again 11 strikeouts six shutout innings on just 79 pitches But he is more stretched out than that. They said he was good to go 90 pitches or six innings He just didn't need the full 90 to get those 11 strikeouts and six innings He also did go 80 pitches in a rehab start. So if Scherzer was good to go 90 last time I'm fine projecting him for 95 this time around and the effectiveness was good too He kept leaning on his slider, which is something that Scherzer was doing before he hit the IEL In six darts including last week with more sliders Scherzer has a 32% strikeout rate with a 3% walk rate and a 2.47 skill interactive ERA In those six darts Scherzers had double digits twice. He had nine of strikeouts and another So I'm sure they're projected for 8.3 strikeouts for tonight Nobody else in the slaters within two strikeouts of him. So it's Scherzer Gap gap gap and everybody else So it is risky and it is risky to use a guy who's in a tough spot who will be the chalk for the night But I can't find any viable alternatives. I'm okay at being differed without being stupid But I don't think I would be super smart to deviate from Scherzer here So to me max Scherzer belongs the top of our list by a pretty decent margin for tonight Now I do think we should keep Max Freed second on our list in that exact same game It's also not an ideal matchup for him. The Mets are pretty good against lefties But they're less powerful than the Braves and I think that that that Freed's floor here is pretty high The bigger question mark for me is the ceiling here But not a ton of guys on this like can hang with Scherzer anyway And I like everything else about Freed basically what you're betting on is that Scherzer struggles and doesn't put up a big Game and then you're kind of looking for who will be the best option beyond that We can focus a bit on floor there and Freed does great out well I like everything else about Freed outside of the the upside His most relevant sample is his past nine starts where he's been throwing his curveball a bit less He has a 3.32 skill interactive ERA in that time with a 23% strikeout rates And he's doing this while still keeping the sick bat of ball data. He has had for a very long time That's another reason that his floor is high the good bat of ball data I think the ceiling is decent not great, but decent I've got Freed projected for 5.1 strikeouts tonight That is lower than Aeronola, but Nola is on the road against an equally tough team I think that the floor for Nola is lower and Freed's ceiling is at least comparable He has eight plus strikeouts and three of nine relevant starts He hit eight innings and another went seven innings twice as well. So he's not perfect It's not a great matchup. He's not the highest upside guy, but When you look at this slate, it's hard to find guys who are great alternatives to Scherzer It's just immense again and why Scherzer is number one, but I think Freed is number two All things considered by a hair above Nola. I do like Nola and I think that Nola Is someone else will get doubled into strikeouts. It's probably him despite a tough matchup But um, I'll put Freed too slightly above Nola for the second slot One guy who is very similar to Freed is Miles Mickelis And I think I'm going to make him the top value of the night $800 Mickelis is higher upside than you may think He's been throwing more foreseamers across his past eight starts and he actually has a 21 strikeout rate in that time Which is not terrible for this slate He still has solid batted ball numbers, too With a 35 hard hit rate and a 36 fly ball rate. So kind of across the board The numbers from Mickelis in this time are solid And it's not a bad matchup today against the Phillies Their active roster has a 93 w RC plus against righties with a 23 strikeout right now You could say Mickelis just faced him two weeks ago Didn't fare all that well one strikeout across five innings, which is not ideal And it means they have seen him recently But Mickelis had nine strikeouts the time before that he had nine a couple starts earlier as well Plus he does have a slightly better strikeout rate at home than he does in the row I've got Mickelis projected for 5.1 strikeouts. That is right in line with free Probably not going to be in a ton of radars because Miles Mickelis is not a guy people Should or do get excited about but He does help save some salary here at $800 if you want to load up on Coors Field If you want to load up on the Rangers, we'll talk about later on Mickelis could be a good route for doing that So I don't think you need to save salary tonight given that Scherzer is 10-7, which is not that bad Free it's 10-4 Nola 10-1. Those are all fine. So I don't think you need to save salary But Mickelis is actually good enough where I would be okay Having him in my player pool for tonight, but to me it's really Scherzer and everyone else I think that he is Head and shoulders above everybody else on the slate for today As far as stacking goes we do have a Coors Field game for tonight It includes the Padres against Jose Aranya And I think we should go pretty hard at the Padres is our top stack for tonight Aranya had a really nice start last time out. He held the Dodgers to one run across six and two-thirds innings But there was some luck in that he had just two strikeouts compared to three walks and He led up a 43 hard hit rates and a 43 fly ball rate So the fact that he had good results there Seems pretty fluky Which means we can look at the minor league numbers for Aranya, which is about a five-star sample in 21 triple innings He had a 7.290 array also a pretty bad park for pitching So that's worth noting the park factor not in his favor there, but he had almost as many walks of strikeouts Didn't he did get some ground balls I think that that's the one thing that is a negative in terms of stacking against him But we haven't seen that in the big leagues so far yet Before or after his injury is meant from the Dodgers had a 43 fly ball rate against him last week The projected fit feeling independent pitching at zips via Dan Zimborski a fangrass is 5.65 for Aranya this year It's 5.44 at the bat via Derek Hardy and that's even as mostly a reliever. We expect numbers to be better So I think that Aranya is a guy we can stack against here, especially with this game being at Coors fields So the pod race to me are the clear number one stack for today in the past against Aranya We have heavily bumped up left-handed batters and that was true last year to you where we had the Larger sample against him. I'm going to keep that as a baseline assumption here obviously Manny Machado like voiding a very very good place But I think the main takeaway is you bump up Jay Kronenworth Kronenworth Still putting the ball in the air a lot hasn't had the same power numbers this year as he had last year but Putting the ball in the air a lot should that hide in the order I like him quite a bit Trent Grisham probably get a bat a bit lower in the order potentially as low as like eighth or ninth But I still be fine with him there. I think that he Definitely does work. No more Mazzara is fine But I think that the primary takeaway is that Kronenworth is I would say in the same tier tier ish as Machado and Voight Despite the fact his overall numbers this year against righties even are a bit lower than theirs For the number two stack the range of facing adria Martinez and he's got good potential still There's some prospect pedigree in there It hasn't translated to results yet either in triple a or the major so I do feel good stacking against him with the rangers for tonight We've seen that Martinez make three starts in the majors and he's made 13 starts in triple a so a good sample down there Yeah, rain triple a was 5.63 And it seems like reading into the numbers that was due in large part due to hard contact The peripherals were fine For Martinez, but the results were bad and typically what that means is he's letting up a bad contact profile On the balls and play against him We've seen something similar in the majors too Martinez led up a 43% our hit rates in three starts which puts his expected era of 5.89 He did face the jays and they're a super tough team But the other starts for Martinez were against the the mariners and the tigers the tiger starts back in may so, you know Maybe he's made some changes since then But and he did pitch well there too But the mariners game They are a solid offense against righties, but not spectacular. I'd say above average for sure The ranges are pretty middling. I'd say probably a bit below the mariners, but I still think they great out solidly here based on the results that martinez had in triple a based on what we've seen So far in the majors I think there's definitely enough here to stack the ranges and it does help When stacking them that their studs the guys they brought in To catalyzed offense are hitting better now. Cory seager and marcus semian seager has a 12.7% barrel rate since the middle part of june with a 243 iso sending in that same time as a 39% hard hit rates per baseball savante with a 244 iso. That's a three stolen bases in that time too so We're not giving out value plays here with semian and uh seager. They're pretty high salary But I think if you're looking at this lineup as a whole if you got at least garcia with seager and semian both playing Well, that's three legit hitters in this line to boost up the rest of the lineup too. So it does give me more comfort in stacking them Even if I know it's not going to be Easy to stack them given but I do want to use shares or I do want to stack cores and their salaries are pretty high For tonight For the third stack i'm pretty torn on the rockies on the one hand I've used shamanaya pretty decent amount this year and it's worked out well at times And I think he could do well against them On the other hand it is course field and mania is not bulletproof and he's had some blips recently So I do think that the rockies belong third on our list even if they are a flawed offense Mania can get strikeouts. He has a 25 strikeout rate so far this year But the other stuff is an issue. He has a 10 walk rate 40 hard hit rate 42 fly ball rate, which is why His eRA is over four this year despite getting a decent number of strikeouts He's also seen in his velocity depth the past two starts for mania One of those was a home one of those is on the road But the velocity was the lowest in those two starts that it has been since april 24 It was pretty low to start jumped up and now has jumped back down And what's more concerning again is that the swing and strike rate in those two starts was below 10 percent Got hit around a bit too. So Might not have mania pitching at his absolute best right now. He's not going to course field He has not faced the rockies yet. So no familiarity there But they are better offense against lefties than they are against righties their wrc plus which accounts are park is 117 against lefties We're just saying 19 strikeout rate so no I don't think the rockies are a must stack offense for tonight despite being a course field and I do prefer the Padres here, but there's still a good stack the the rockies are All be into them is my third ranked option for tonight behind the Padres behind the rangers We'll go at the Rockies after that Again kind of similar to the rangers discussion. It does help here that the Free agent guys are coming on chris bryan is hitting the ball hard finally and that's a big plus But rato gritchick might be Slowly coming into things too. You had a couple barrels over the weekend in one game Yet a it has a 48 hard hit rate since the middle of june on with a 203 iso He hasn't had a lot of hits recently and iso does not account for the fact that you're not getting any base hits So maybe it's lucy, but I like the hard contact not striking out too much $2,000 platoon advantage course field my night does let up some hard contact and fly balls I'll be on gritchick here. I think that it makes sense to buy into him given Some of the data we've seen even if the the hits have not been there as of yet Things to watch for tonight. Introduce you a bryan bella or bryan bayo can do in his second star for the red sox They get kicked around a bit in his first art But he had a 34 strikeout rate in triple a got a ton of ground balls down there too And I love that kind of guy if you can get some strikeouts get you some ground balls It's a fun archetype for dfs. The problem for bayo is that he's facing the rays for a second straight start so I don't think he's going to be able to do that But I want to see what he does because I think that the profile he presents is pretty interesting and interesting enough where I will Be receptive to him if he does show up pretty well here given the complications with it being a second straight start against them But bayo to me intriguing I would say for tonight Kind of similar idea for spencer howard not as high on howard individually as I am on a guy Like bayo, and I don't think his leech should be very long I've got him projected for 80 pitches tonight howard But again good numbers in triple a lot of strikeouts there He lets up a lot of hard contacts a different contact profile than bayo got hit by the orials last week So, you know, there's no shame in that the orials have been playing really good baseball recently, but I think you could give some thought to the a's as some one offs for tonight If you can find guys you like using on that offense Not the worst idea given the kind of contact howard is led up I think that's actually an okay round two at least consider for tonight. The white sox could be another source I mean of some one offs and I mean literally one guy, uh, they're facing cal quantrill pretty solid guy He's had some bumps recently though, and he struggles morgan's lefty. So when I said One offs literally it's gavin sheets. Basically. He's the primary guy here other lefty in their lineup is yohamon katha or twitch header Uh, I've not seen enough out of mon katha since he came back to get excited about him. So Not going to get to mon katha, but if you need another uh potential one-off guy I think that gavin sheets would be someone you could consider in that realm He is $2,600 first base in outfield on fandall. So, you know some flexibility there sour savings, too Sheets could be a guy you could turn to for one offs against quantrill for tonight Let's finish up here some digger calls, and I'm sorry both these are at course field So maybe it's gubba boring, but the homer calls for today a big crony work and rando gritch It couldn't quite go with like a Machado or a void call because it seems a little bit too boring for the pod rings, but I do think that I feel pretty good about crony worth for tonight Again putting the ball in the air has an result in a ton of power so far this year But I like the the the bat of all profile. So I'll go with j crony worth the Quote and quote fun one is gritchick and this may seem stupid because Gritchick actually has much shorter home run odds than crony worth for tonight on fandall sports books So maybe it's not actually should flip those two, but I will go with a j crony worth rando gritchick as the home run calls for today That is all that we have here for today on this monday main slate But as I said do not forget we've got our open championship preview coming up later on today on the fandall youtube page and up On the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed I'd guesstimate 230 as the record time for that if you want to watch over on youtube So sing back for that hit subscribe on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed to get our pga mlb usc and nascar podcasts as they're posted each day throughout the week If you've got any questions for me. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fandall podcast network at fandall podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck to you with your mlb dfs lineups We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down tuesday's slate This has been the solo shot right here on the fandall podcast network