 Okay, very good morning to you Anthony chum. I'm the head of market analysis here amplified trading and Before I begin don't forget to subscribe to our YouTube channel And Eddie is going to do his normal kind of deep dive into one of the major market themes And he'll deliver that video on Saturday. We don't actually have a fixed Topic for that video is yet So if you leave a comment on the bottom of this video Let us know what you'd like pick one subject to know a little bit more about in terms of some of the general News or macro themes at the moment and then Eddie can shoot a video later today and we'll publish tomorrow morning And then the other thing is apart from my kind of regular Monday to Friday market briefings Sam releases his technical trading setups for the week ahead on Sunday So again, as I said subscribe to the channel hit that notification bell You'll get all the alerts as soon as those sessions go live but let's just take a look at the charts then for this morning and I would say it's a really relatively calm open in short markets are highly Anticipating a press conference from Donald Trump at there's no ETA as yet But it's going to be an important one of course because he's going to be unveiling what the next steps are in regard to China And that is the main focus. I would say for today's session Given that though There's a little bit of just general risk off in terms of how the asset classes are performing at the European Open So equity index futures US related are down slightly just backing off from some of the initial highs that was seen Towards really when Europe exited the market. We had a bit of a dip into the close on Wall Street That's then consequently down about 140 points just paying a bit of catch up T-notes then up 9 ticks gold positive by about two bucks All be it relatively calm there trading around its pivot in futures and in the FX market the dollar still remains just a touch weaker down one-tenth Euro and Cable relatively flat if anything just bumping up a little going into this this European session then oil Yeah, a bit of a roller coaster really after falling around 10% in a 24-hour period through kind of Thursday's trade We have recovered through much of Yesterday, I'd say Wednesday Thursdays when we dipped and then Thursday Friday we rallied and then we've come off a little bit So bit indecisive in the oil market a few kind of Conflicting forces, I guess being more supportive does so far relative success of the loosening of lockdown measures globally in a number of key areas and that's helping on the demand side The adherence to the compliance from the OPEC plus Of the production cuts, however that in itself becoming a bit of a contentious issue whether Russia in particular will continue to roll that over We're going to have a meeting or gathering in about I think it's about 10 days time of those OPEC producing officials Which will be ultimately very important then you've got this trade war as well, which has been a little bit negative for price Sensitive of course to any further disruption that that trade war could have not just on Chinese demand But just reverberating across sentiment for global markets and growth potential So yeah, that that's pretty much it from a top level So going straight into some of the headlines as I said a lot of people are waiting Trump's China press conference and as the news Press reports would suggest it could mark the end of his cautious approach to Beijing. He's always been quite confrontational on some particular comments particularly on on trade of course and about how they Manipulate their currency and their favor to help their exports and so on but there are you know There's a mix of different things going on here One is Hong Kong which we've seen talked about this week. The others is about the human rights issue about particular Muslims in one part of the country and how they're being treated because of their their ethnic minority citizens and and and how that's going to play out so that is multifaceted and There's a couple of things here to keep an eye on and here's probably a good checklist of what is going on So Trump's gonna hold a press conference on China as I said, there's no set time But I would assume it's gonna happen this afternoon. So I'll keep you posted as soon as we know definitive timings He's offered no details as yet, but he did say that this conference is going ahead just a few hours ago The the saying of a conference in itself and that he's basically not happy with how things are happening is what caused a little bit of the The pullback inequities last night So for weeks the administration be matching up pressure on Beijing about it's a legit cover-up of COVID-19 Remember Trump kind of saying it's the Chinese virus and so on And then in the past week the pressure in the US has taken a more serious turn and this comes With basically Washington this week laying the groundwork for potentially removing of Hong Kong's special trade status That was after a new proposed Chinese security law That threatens the long-standing independence of Hong Kong and so that's that's probably the most serious one I think that's really elevated this this recent confrontation because that would have serious repercussions then for China and so the threat of quite severe retaliation does increase And then the other final thing is this kind of potential issue around border disputes between China and India that Trump has said He offered to mediate and then the legislation awaiting Trump's signature concerning China's treatment of Ethnic minority citizens so yeah quite a few things to monitor and really it's what does he do next and How severe and how immediate is that action? Will probably be the the driving force of how markets will close and finish this week So yeah, I don't really have anything more to add than that at this point other than I would be if you're Formulating a strategy for this morning. You want to be thinking in terms of a mindset that markets might train trade relatively Conservatively ranges probably quite small quite tight barring anything unexpected A lot of people will be sat on the sidelines just awaiting Trump first Before then looking to commit to any type of market move So if you are in a trade this morning probably worth being fairly realistic in terms of your time frame of how you'd want to hold How long you'd want to hold that trade? I don't think personally you'd want to be sat in a trade going into Kind of the North American opens around probably 11 11 a.m. London time because no doubt Trump will probably be tweeting Head of the official press conference. I've just had a quick look Trump actually tweeted about one hour ago So the guy hardly ever sleeps these days So yeah, a little bit of words of warning there Overall, I'd say perhaps best unless there's something quite clearly obvious As a setup that materializes of just waiting for this afternoon to see what he says This there's also one of the other things of course that you probably read about a lot yesterday Trump has also signing a social media order and this came after Twitter fact-checked him Basically what he's trying to do is amend or change a law that shields social media companies from liability for content posted by their users Yeah, it does bring up quite an interesting Concepts I guess is what it what if Trump didn't have the use of Twitter how effective would his tactical approach to modern-day politics be without the narrative or the platform to communicate of Twitter and I know it sounds ridiculous But I think he would be severely impaired if it he was not able to actually use that as his main form of communication And the whole point here is he's kind of built this narrative around Twitter allows him to be unshackled and uninterrupted in terms of him being able to reach the public directly Outside of what he feels is and the manipulated media sphere who are all against him So I do think beyond that point and the way he communicates has been For his base highly effective in terms of him being able to get across lots of you know kind of misdirection distraction you know all these different things that really have Have helped him in many ways as you know as crazy as you know co-fifi might seem you know it kind of it's all part of the Kind of the madness and magic of the marketing machine that's Donald Trump and certainly has been in my opinion a highly effective and You know an unprecedented strategy But one that I just wonder if he if he did lose Twitter. I think he would be massively disadvantaged So it could be something interesting to watch but you know, otherwise It's it's a kind of a moot point at this at this point in time Moving on then a couple of other things just get you aware of We talk about obviously lots of different countries and you know the depths of what they're going to in order to Backstop economies through this quite quite Unforeseen economic situation on the back of the pandemic and Germany have basically come out and done more So if you think about you know, why are a kitty markets generally holding up? Well, you know, there's a variety of different things things going on But you know just the magnitude of the central bank of government's responses is is large at this point And you know, this comes on the coattails of Europe as well that recovery fund to getting that kind of tentative agreement Which was a big positive sign and move for the euro earlier this week And the euro is still kind of continuing the trend from where we were trading about Midweek on the back of that news, but now Germany coming forward and Merkel stimulus sequel So basically here Merkel the coalition is set to discuss proposals Next week on June 2nd the focus now on aiding recovery after cushioning the crisis blows So they're looking at it as in there's two forms of stimulus There's the initial get it in and and let's try to offset the initial impact And then there's let's try to provide a further stimulus or supporting hand to the recovery And so, you know, here we are Germany looking to prepare a second phase of stimulus between 50 billion and a hundred billion euros to help that recovery cornered people from living the matter The finance minister and his social democratic group want spending at the upper end of that range But Merkel's ruling conservative block pushing back a little bit Looking to be a little bit more kind of fiscally prudent and not accumulate too much debt too quickly as I said these two Um Parties and all the officials Compiling proposals for the ministries they'll present them on Tuesday in Berlin next week But this of course comes on top of the hundred fifty six billion euros in debt to finance higher social spending 50 billion in the Euro area liquidity fund for self-employed people a six hundred billion euro rescue fund For state-run development banks. So, you know, this again is a top-up, but it kind of further Supplements what has been, you know, one of the main forces that a stabilized markets after that route that we had in March So governments continuing to add more and more at this point and on the central bank side, obviously a lot of people now looking ahead to Next Thursday, we get the ECB interest rate decision And we've had the latest Bloomberg survey where basically they go around and Question most of the major Wall Street independent research firms economists and they asked them. What do you think the ECB are going to do? And most economists expect an increase in the virus response on Thursday So turning up the printing press and in a similar fashion to what Germany's objective is which is to finance Europe's recovery And this is what the economists predict the ECB will boost emergency purchases in June And they will do so by topping up of 500 billion euros and that would take Purchases under all plans this year to about 1.6 trillion euros Most respondents expect the program to be extended beyond the end of the year and also the central bank will reinvest proceeds from maturing assets To prevent financial conditions from tightening. So to make that, you know layman's terms What they're saying is they're going to increase then the size and volume of quantitative easing That means it's going to go a little bit longer than previously foreseen Once they end then the active buying of bonds, they're going to reinvest all of the The kind of principal payments that come on the back of the expiration of those bonds because there'll be a variety of Maturities so just like the Fed did you get QE in the system the Fed's balance sheet rises And then they stop active QE and then we go sideways for a long period of time Which means QE is still in the system to assist the recovery They'll continue to be reinvesting the proceeds and then eventually you get quantitative tightening That's kind of what we had and then obviously the pandemic hit and the Fed's balance sheets come back up again So in a similar fashion The ECB are going to follow that that kind of method if you like is what people are expecting So yeah next next Thursday will be interesting one obviously got the ECB looking for an increase for QE Almost three and four respondents are looking for that increase in their quantitative easing program. They've also got new Forecast they're going to unveil so that's going to be something we'll be watching very closely indeed and obviously next week as well You've got non-farm payroll. So particularly busy week on on that front For the rest of today's session, what else have you got from a schedule point of view? Not not too much in the European morning. You've got the flash CPI numbers from May Coming out. So the year and you expected a point one against previous point three percent range minus point four to plus point five You've then in the US session. You've got personal income numbers PCE price index and you've got the US Chicago PMI also coming out this afternoon and the Michigan But this is the final reading for from May from Canada. You've got GDP for Q1 speaker-wise Other than Trump, there's no other major kind of central banks that we focus on Unless you're looking at the Swedish crowner. There is Rick's Banks, Enkvist speaking and that's pretty much it So I'm going to leave you with that really Probably the best of the session is still yet to come as I said when Donald Trump speaks no ETA is yet I'll keep you posted in the chat and on my Twitter account Soon as I have more clarity and detail of when that's going to happen, but that will probably Saturate a lot of the market activity for the pre Statement a lot of people will be sitting on the sidelines that will come out and depending on what he says You're either going to get a bit of a relief rally if he's a little bit more conciliatory And he just says look, I'm not happy But we want to continue to get the trade deal done and we want to push things forward I want to work with G for example. I'd look for a more risk-on type response. But if he does come through he signs that bill about the the treatment of ethnic minorities if he says that I want to absolutely push and fast-track through this bill In regard to Hong Kong and how they're being dealt with then in that particular situation you'd be looking for equities to just You know finish this session in a negative sense probably further bid then into likes of gold and tea notes oil would come under some pressure And that's the way I'd be kind of looking to approach things going forward All right, that is it. So have a great weekend as I said remember subscribe to the channel Leave a comment. Let me know what it is. What particular topics you guys want to hear about in more detail Just pick one and he can really dive into that a bit more Information and then sounds video on Sunday. All right guys take care. Enjoy your weekend