 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Decided to skip the show yesterday here on covering the spread given the DeMar Hamlin situation from Monday night and all the Uncertainty surrounding him just didn't feel fully right to talk betting when obviously that matters a lot less relative to what he His family and his teammates are all going through right now so skip the show yesterday, but he sold the forefront of everybody's minds and I want to send my good thoughts Hit good vibes his way hoping he pulled through for that just tough tough situation overall there We'll make up for the lack of a first look tomorrow on the week 18 NFL previous show Ryan Williams back with us For that one is first show post baby births. I'll be fun. Talk to Ryan there I'll get to graduate him on his son being born and talk to Ryan that NFL week number 18 today We're talking college football the national the national championship game Georgia versus TCU by bringing dr. Ed Feng on and getting his read on Monday nights game This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here As mentioned by Ed Feng check him out on Twitter at the power rank you can find his work at the power rank calm Ed we had a thrilling Semi-finals on New Year's Eve we get a I think a pretty fun national championship on Monday. How you doing today? I'm doing well. I do hope the national championship game is fun a lot of the metrics suggest otherwise But we'll get into that we certainly will spread is now 12 and a half for that game We'll break down some movement in that market break down what Ed's numbers say there in a bit But Ed you're wearing a US men's national team kid if you're watching YouTube you can see this right now and Ed Was this intentional given the geo reina? Greg Berthalter news that came out today Are you leading into the s show that is the US men's national team right now? It was intentional and beyond the fact that a lot of my collared shirts are not clean at this point I think I think we're going on a couple weeks here now Where I'm in a little bit lazy about the rest of my wardrobe, but yeah, I thought it'd be fun That's not really a collared shirt. It's kind of a cheater color collared shirts Just a quarter zip a loose fitting quarter zip So I think we're both a little uh, we're feeling that end of NFL season driver. Exactly Exactly, but there's a little bit of drama in the US men's national team camp. I Don't I don't even know where to begin. I guess should we tell the whole story? Do it feel free. Yes So the coach Greg Berthalter it came out later decided that geo reina didn't really have Much of a spot on this team didn't wasn't going to play a huge role on this team Which I think is crazy, but my opinion doesn't really matter but apparently reina kind of had didn't react to it well Turned out that he wasn't training as hard and camp as he probably should have been given his first World Cup appearance and It came out that He almost got sent home And so that that's obviously not good. He ended it. He did have a contribution and I think we talked about this during the World Cup, you know, the US team is a team that's got a lot of really good wingers Christian Pulisic is is an established star and Tim waya is awesome and is really Lighting it up in France and and he deserves to get minutes and Bernie Nairn soon It might be the third best player on the team definitely top five and he wasn't even starting and I think geo reina has a the highest ceiling on any of those players But so so there are reasons why he might not have a role because of the personnel but he didn't take that well and The fact, you know stuff in the locker room supposed to stay in the locker room So it didn't reflect well on anyone that this news actually came out and then today It came out that okay, so then yesterday someone had leaked to news That there was some domestic violence issues and burhalters past and then he was actually very public about it on Twitter and explained the whole thing and and his Daddy was sorry and and and so on and so forth and the incident that that occurred Was when he was 18 years old with his now wife. Yep. It sounds like he went to counseling after it They reconciled seven months after the fact and have been together for 25 years I believe it's 25 years something like that since then so obviously doesn't like excuse what happened, but it is I Think that the context around it is important even though it doesn't you know excuse what happened there I'm gonna look down on him because I never made a mistake as an 18 year old, but right Right same no clearly kidding, but now the kicker is that the person that supposedly leaked this information was Chio Reina's mother Which is just simply not good. This is unnecessary drama and You know the US Federation is trying to figure out whether boy Holdre was gonna be the coach over the next cycle. I would personally vote. No, but again, my opinion doesn't matter and Reina's obviously not becoming player and and now you just have this mess That maybe we can forget about by the time woke up qualifying starts in two years. Who knows? That bridge has been burned I think There's there's there's a lot of carnage. There's a lot of things that have been burnt Apparently the additional context is that Gea Reina's mom was Greg Berhalter's wife's roommate in college as well Um, so like there there are just a lot of layers to all of this Yeah, I didn't realize that I believe I read that I could have read that wrong, but I think that was part of it as well so honestly just like Hard to script how bizarre this whole situation is you know, it's You never want to make light of incidents that are very serious for sure but I just think that like the the pettiness to Report that only after it becomes clear that your son is not gonna get legitimate playing time It kind of shows you don't care about the incident itself You just want to blackmail the guy into playing your son, which is bananas Absolutely bananas behavior. I don't know if it's blackmailing him to play his son I think it's blackmailing him to not be the coach the next cycle. Yeah. Yeah, that is coming out now But yeah, I don't know They had messaged the US men's national team during I think it was either was it during the World Cup about this? I think that they Yeah, maybe it was after it might have been after they were lonely because it happened like December 11th I believe which was I think after the Netherlands game. It was when the report leaked about Reina almost being sent home I think that's when it all started to come about up the timeline is kind of kind of muddy But like it's just it is it is totally bizarre and it just it kind of again illustrates You don't really care about the situation. You just wanted to leverage it for your own gain, which is just pretty scummy I mean, I think it's still at the point of sources. Maybe it's not true that His mother leaked this information. No, she told the athletic that she did it. She told them on the record I'm pretty sure it's nuts Like because the original story I read was that it was his georena's dad and then There was a report from the athletic like 20 minutes later that no his mom told them that she did it and It's just it's a banana story, which obviously just like moving pieces across the board, too Yeah So some light reading if you want to catch up on the entire drama Yeah No, I will catch up on the whole story because I clearly Did not get the full story from the little bit in the ESPN that I just how could you how could you? It's there's so much stuff going on like you can't have the full story But you know got the the US men's national team kid on Yep, because I does this make us a legitimate soccer power now that we have like drama going on Is that our prerequisite for being a you know a contending team? No, not really Yeah, just a fun fun time all across the board for that Well, we're gonna break down hopefully like I said another fun time coming up with a national championship talking about Georgia TCU will also go back to the the semifinals break down any final takeaways from that in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Well, like I said, we have a week 18 NFL preview show coming up tomorrow with Ryan Williams I'll give out what my numbers are saying our values there as well Breaking down some intriguing games across the week 18 slate get that by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your Podcasts also check out the Fandall YouTube page And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well looking to get more out of this NFL season Well, now is the perfect time to download Fandall America's number one sportsbook because new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win Just download the Fandall sportsbook app It is safe secure and super easy to use and you can bet on everything from the money line to touchdown scores to over under yards Plus Fandall even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same-game parlay So don't miss a chance to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 and free bets when you join Fandall make every moment more with Fandall an official sports betting partner of the NFL Must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager only refund issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions applies in terms of sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1-800-gambler or visit fandall.com slash rg in Arizona 1-800-next-step or Tex-Nex-Eptify 3-3-4-2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-800-9 with it in Kansas and Wyoming 1-800-522-4700 in Kansas KS gambling health comm in Louisiana 1-877-770 stop in a Maryland MD gambling health org in New York 1-877-8 Hope and Wire text open Y and in West Virginia go to 1-800-gambler.net Now before I dig into the championship game talk TCU vs. Georgia Ed did want to go back to the semifinals Bizarre games not so stuff both games really fun to watch even when Michigan was down big It's TCU never felt like they were out of it and they did claw the way back a couple times Couldn't wind up converting there. Obviously Ohio State had to lead against Georgia in that game So two really fun games, but also, you know, both of us are big ten guys and I think Disappointing Ohio State covered as you called you like them plus six and a half there So you did call that but I think disappointing overall to see neither team advanced But what are your final takeaways from those two semifinal games? the Michigan game was Interesting because watching it live it really felt like they just squandered a golden opportunity against the team that that wasn't as good as them JJ McCarthy through to pick sixes It's not out of the question that one of those gets dropped in that game is entirely different They fumble the ball on a fourth in goal. Sorry at first in goal from like the the the half-yard line Which came after? The refs took away a touchdown that looked like a touchdown So, you know, it seemed like a lot of squandered opportunity a squandered opportunity from Michigan Then you go back and you look at the game and you look at success rates And you know TCU was actually pretty good. They had a significantly higher success rate in the game than Michigan So on a play-by-play basis, they were better and you know from watching the game You kind of you could kind of see that as well. They were able to run the ball But it was kind of lopsided. They were successful in 64 percent of their rush plays Which is good, obviously, but not as successful in the passing game They only were successful about on a third of those plays and that's not really something that translates forward Going against Georgia It's gonna be even harder to run the ball against that Georgia defense and in the other semi-final game You can kind of see that the secondary is probably the weaker I don't want to say weak but the weaker part of that Georgia defense Well, how state's offense is elite. They were basically able to do what they wanted throwing the ball for the most part in that game and You know, I mean, I think Georgia had their good Good bit of good fortune as well the 76 yard touchdown passed to Arian Smith where the defender falls down. It's pretty wide open If you don't get that play it can be a completely different game Ohio State still has a field goal Opportunity to win it at the end So, yeah, I mean the late game definitely turned out exactly as I expected 100 100% thought Ohio State could keep that close and if not win it at the end and that's exactly what we saw So, yeah, I mean, it's gonna be it's gonna be an interesting final. It's a pretty big spread So, you know, maybe maybe not that much drama. Well, we'll see what happens Yeah, certainly as big spread as you mentioned 12 and a half You mentioned the Ohio States playing out the way you expected to clarify that you mentioned Ohio State plus six and a half on Our bowl preview show, which would have been like mid December right when that line first came out It didn't move off the six and a half for a while But like you said, I think that was kind of a good read also Ed I feel like you you need to apologize to your numbers because they said they liked the over in both games And he said no So, yeah, are you wishing issuing a formal apology letter to your numbers for? Disregarding them on the totals. No, not really. I mean there was a ton of explosive plays and and that really that really moved things up Obviously the pick sixes and so Yeah, they both went they both hit so we'll be happy about that It's good for the numbers you can feel good about that even if you didn't wind up betting yourself So let's move focus now and talk about TCU versus Georgia as mentioned pretty widespread here at 12 and a half total 62 And we'll talk about the markets in a second, but I want to get your overall view on this game first How are you doing this game TCU versus Georgia? Yeah, I mean, I honestly like I kind of wonder a TCU can can move the ball against Georgia's defense I already mentioned that they were pretty successful running the ball against Michigan, but but struggle to throw the ball and Max talking really, you know, he missed a bunch of throws in in the game his overall numbers were Good, I think he threw for like 250 some yards, but a lot I came on one play To Quentin Johnson for for the long touchdown, which was kind of a shorter pass that the wide receiver was able to break open so Yeah, anyways, I mean to make a long story short I mean, I don't my number slightly leaning toward the over but I don't like it because I see scenarios in which Georgia's defense can be dominant in in this situation and Yeah, I mean, I think it could get ugly it could get ugly in this game I mean, that's what you're seeing in a double-digit spread. I think it opened at 13 and a half has come down to 12 and a half My numbers have it at about 11, but I'm not at all interested in betting the dog here So you mentioned you have your numbers having it 11 it opened at 13 and a half and It's now 12 and a half. So that's come down Do you think that's correct because it isn't one of your numbers, but as you said, you're not interested in betting yet Even with it coming down. What's to read on that market specifically with the spread shorting a bit here of late? I mean, I think you can certainly make the case You know, I would have made this about 13 and a half Before the semifinal games and TCU put in a good performance again It's you know, especially success rate wise against the Michigan team that everyone thought was significantly better than than they were So I definitely understand the movement. I don't necessarily think it's Correct, but I understand why people would be betting TCU at, you know, plus 13 and a half So you mentioned in the semifinals your numbers like the over in both games that did wind up hitting Total in this game is right in line with those 62 and a half Are you liking the over here again? What's your read on the total market for this one? Yeah, I mean my number has it at 64. I mean, I don't I don't really like the over here I think Jordan's defense could be dominant in this game against TCU's offense So, I don't know. Maybe maybe a Georgia team total. I don't know. We'll see but but not the game total for me Yeah, looking at The alternate markets we could dig into some stuff that you could deviate from the Georgia side of things if you want to go that route but 64 pretty in line with 62 and a half for the total there Okay, as mentioned though, there are some secondary markets available over at fan dual sports book You can get creative with these if there are other routes you don't like May not be as efficient as the traditional game lines are not quite as bad into So when you look at the secondary markets posted over at fan dual sports book any of those standards being good values for you Yeah, none of them yet. I mean, I'm still waiting for the yardage totals. I didn't see any Posted this morning. I think there's a couple Different ways that the market could really overreact here I mean, you had a Georgia wide receiver in area and smith that came into the game With three receptions. This is a very talented player A super speedster. I think I read that that he runs like a 10.18 100 meters So an elite athlete had a big game including that touchdown the 76 yard touchdown that I talked about earlier had over 100 yards, so Yeah, I'm looking to to maybe bet an under there on a yard total when it does come up I think you you also have a situation which tcu was able to break A lot of plays quit johnson the wide receiver had a pretty big total. So maybe his Uh, yard show might be too high Uh, this this ammari dimercato the the backup running back Uh, and then kind of miller for tcu. They they both had pretty decent games miller got banged up So I don't really know what the books. I mean, it looks like he was up there in terms of Anytime touchdown score. So the books are kind of assuming he plays But he was clearly banged up. So again, this is this is like a playcorm heading into a how state situation, right? where like they have to hang a number right and You're gonna lean towards the under no matter what that number is simply because the the guy's hurt and might not be able to play Or or have that many carries um, so I am looking forward to to when those come out and uh, and yeah, we'll see We'll see what happens there. So with the miller situation Um, I think the advantage that sportsbook have sportsbooks have in that market the anti-touchdown market is They can hide the hold like they're I mean like because you know They can they can mask things really well. You don't really know as much I mean, obviously it's an anti touchdown. So there it's not going to be a you know, straight situation where it could add up to a lot, uh, based on if it's a high total game and stuff like that, but they can kind of Mess with it a little bit. I think that the prime situation would be When the actual yard is processing out the problem is they're probably gonna wait as long as I can until they get a firm read on What is situation is to post those props specifically? So I think that if you're looking at, um spots where we'll actually get actionable takeaways based on what you were saying I think the quintin johnson one's probably the primary one Um, based on that big play based on the fact that he's getting a lot of talk as being a legitimate nfo prospect Um, oh, he's he's gonna get a lot of buzz uh entering this week So I wouldn't be shocked to the hang a big number up there. You know, it's uh, it's a big spread Which means they'll be assuming tcu's gonna be throwing a whole lot getting some nfo draft buzz That's gonna be something that that gets a lot of years this time of year as well Saw that big touchdown last week. I think if you're looking for Analysis you were saying and trying to apply it in the most likely path I think the johnston unders is probably going to be The most viable path there based on a lot of the narratives that could be cooked up in these markets as they get posted Absolutely. Also georgia receiver lad mcconkey didn't have a really big game. He was kind of coming off an injury He has been one of their top receivers for over the course of the year um so That that that that might be the only place where you can imagine trying it over in terms of yards Uh, but we'll see we'll see how that I'm I'm I'm pretty sure he just didn't have a I mean he didn't catch a two-point conversion, but yeah, otherwise did not have a game a good game He did get hurt in the scc championship game and he was limping a lot in this one. Oh, yeah So maybe you know another week to rest and maybe he's a hundred percent and it uh Maybe as you know, he he gets back to the point where he's one of their top two receivers What is a tighter turnaround to typically because we actually have the The semi finals on a saturday and the championship game on a monday Typically, I believe the gap is a little bit bigger there because we'll often see the um New year's eve be on a non-saturday, right? So I think this is the smallest gap they could have between the two Based on the way they schedule things out So in that regard it kind of does decrease the amount of time they have to get that turnaround in there To get him healthy and you know, it probably means his health will be pretty in line For that game with what it was for the other game Yeah, we shall see Yeah, for sure. Um other thing too that could lead to Unders being I mean unders always kind of enticing for prop markets But I think that the reason they could be even warranting is because we just got to the top That's in the semi finals now both teams that were involved in those are playing once again People are probably going to be having their brains tuned towards Over so I think like you said targeting guys who had big games last week who had long plays Fluke year plays That would probably the way to go within the prop markets for this week Any other bets you see you like over at vandal sportsbook here for this championship game ad or any final thoughts here Yeah, no, not really. I mean, it's only one game. So the the the the surface area is not too large But I I am very interested when the yards totals come out All right, so keep your eyes peeled over at vandal sportsbook Um, I'm guessing some of it is injury related as those go up. We're talking here Wednesday afternoon So pull up your vandal sportsbook app check to see what props are up there Go back to what ed was saying about which guys maybe overvalued kind of the overall thought process on that and see If you can pluck some value of vandal sportsbook and as always shop around too Because especially these prop markets that as we discussed with the donovan edwards one Line shopping there was very important So always shop around with these big markets to see if you can get the best number at another book That's all that we have here for today On covering the spread and ed. It's our final college football show of the year. It's kind of sad Uh, I've had a lot of a lot of fun talking to you college football, but hey, we're gonna be back on Talked some march badness at some point. Could you use some college basketball thoughts? So I'm looking forward to that but uh, just a blast talking college football with you this week and this entire season Absolutely. Yeah. Thank you so much, Jim And what's going on for you not just this week at the powering but also for the coming weeks as well Yeah, so if you sign up for my free email newsletter Uh, I'm actually making available an audio episode about the secret to predicting the college football and nfl playoffs It is an episode about success rate versus explosive plays and what that means for philadelphia and buffalo Uh, I think it's particularly a good episode that I've made so it's usually saved for members of my site But if you sign up, um, I'll send you right there and you can stream it and check it out So check that out at the power rank dot com. Oh, of course, I had the best podcast guests ever this week Guy by the name of jim saunas came on and we talked a lot about uh, his models and betting props and a lot of good analysis of A bunch of games for week 18 in the nfl So definitely check that out at the football analytic show It was fun to get the chance to talk like more in depth like nerd number stuff about like my model because like On this show, it's like it's the same level of like intelligent listeners, which is nice I appreciate all of you, but it's like it's a short foreign podcast So it's hard to like dig fully into everything So it's fun to get a chance to just kind of riff on that for a bit talk to you about that Uh, you know always fun to bounce some ideas off of you as well But uh, it was fun. I appreciate you having me on there Check that out over at the football analytics show Check out ed on twitter at the power rank and check out his work at the power rank.com I am on twitter at jim saunas j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast We are back once again tomorrow to break down nfl week number 18 This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network