 Hello, this is Tom for Zootie with Trading on Mark and it is Wednesday, September the 20th, the FMC rate decision day. So let's see what the S&P has in store for us today. Just for some context, I think it's worth kind of taking a look at where we are in the overall picture. And I think there's a reasonable chance that a lower high has already been set against the highs from late 2022. We don't know that for a fact chat. This will only be confirmed that this is more than a correction once underneath 41.93. But I'll give you a reason why I think that the move could definitely be at least down to here if not more on the next slide. But for right now, also draw attention to that the current week is we have a kind of a doji candle building here. And it's underneath 44.72 and being underneath 44.72, I would take as a minor negative looking for that to extend lower. But, you know, too difficult to say for now with any certainty at this level. Now, also, we know is that we've had a respectable decline into kind of a moderate support, kind of a choppy bounce, and then kind of slipping back underneath the initial support value. And we'll have to see what happens the rest of this week and next week before we could determine whether we have a shot at, you know, pushing past the July high into a minor new high to still set a lower high to back in 2022. Or if by some kind of miracle, the market goes ahead and advances into a new high. I wouldn't say that new highs are impossible. But I think unlikely considering the situation we're in, I think more likely that we at least fall back to 41.93. Even then I really think that will fall have weakness through the end of the year, but we should at least get to hear and then the market kind of decide how much bounce they can get up off of that, or if this in turn fails and that they fall lower. But let me move on and I'll show you why I think that it's probably prudent to let the bears have a chance here. This is the S&P 500 percentages below the 20 day moving average. So this is the number, the percentage of components underneath the 20 day moving average. And highs in this mean that you have price lows in the S&P lows mean we have highs in the S&P. So this is inverse to prices. And what I find interesting about this chart is this cycle that has been pretty steady for about a year here and the cycles on a low right now and looking to turn up through the end of October. And that would mean that bears have a shot to drive S&P 500 prices lower, certainly for the next month, if not a little bit over that month and a half. And so I want to give bears a chance to get somewhere and that really equates to any kind of retraces or probably an opportunity to sell. So keep with that in mind, advancing to the intraday chart here. We'll see that the off of the July high. We saw a channel start to form in the bottom fallout of the channel. I'm calling that the first move down off of off of a B wave high. This is followed with a three wave advance a three wave bounce. Three waves are corrective. So this is would be this is exactly what was expected after an impulse down is a three wave bounce. This would happen to be at a 75% retrace, and then had a move back down from from that. We'll call that a lower degree one followed by another three wave hence corrective bounce up into towards the end of last week, Thursday. Then on Friday had a gap down and that move down has has had continuation into Tuesday morning of this week. And that was followed with a kind of a bounce through the rest through the into the afternoon. And the market position that I think that we're in right now is that this move this drop from Thursday needs to be corrected. And that this move up that took place on Tuesday was only the first wave of the correction again it should be three waves just like all these other ones of other degrees so this was three waves. We should three C three wave three wave bounce up off of this low. And unfortunately, though, is that a B wave they the in between wave the second swing in this corrective move doesn't necessarily have to be a higher low, it could be a lower low. Both are valid options. So therefore I can't say for a fact that, well, if we've dropped underneath say 4425, then the wave count is invalidated and something else is going on. So, you know, it could be could very well be that we just end up with a B wave low, and that target range if we do if the higher low fails again if we have a higher low, kind of looking at 4429 to 4425. So that was to fail, start shopping for a low around 4408 to 4404, then looks for some kind of kind of sharp rally, either off of the higher low, or off of the off of the minor new low. And that that move up, my guess is probably going to happen on the FOMC announcement itself, which takes takes place at 1400 Eastern daylight. And another thing to note on FOMC days is that you could see three moves take place. One happens on the FOMC announcement itself. Another one could happen at the start of the press conference, even though I think that's ridiculous because the they don't say he's, all's pal does is read what was the in the announcement when he first starts the press conference but nonetheless, you can see a reaction at 1430. But more importantly, is the Q&A session that starts about 10 minutes later so approximately at 1440. When the Q&A starts, you could see another move take place. Definitely something to see that let's say if we were to see a move down in a B wave in the morning on Wednesday. That starts to stabilize starts to kind of get a bounce as soon as you get these FOMC both the announcement itself and also at 1430. You can see some kind of test of the ranges so that it could go back and forth a couple times in that just probing the range of the day so far. Before it sort of sets the direction for the rest of the day sort of the real move so you can kind of get these kind of fake out moves or you know probing the edges before the next trend starts and so be aware of that if you're if you're trading during the announcement itself and I think this bounce probably takes place on the during this after the statement. But you know if things are going to go wrong they go wrong in the Q&A session usually if you're going to get some kind of fake out move and some kind of major reversal taking place often happens after some kind of question gets answered that is say a counter to how the statement kind of sounds of it itself. Anyway that definitely take care. It's going to be should be an interesting day with a fair amount of volatility. All these numbers could be end up being tested tomorrow. That's just the way things go on a FMC day. And good luck and talk to you again soon.