 This is covering the spread. Here are your hosts Jim Sonnes and Dr. Ed Fang What's going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and numberfire.com and today we are previewing UFC 249 with Barry Cohen of numberfire to get his thoughts and how you bet UFC and who he likes for this weekend My name is Jim Sonnes I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com joined here as always by Ed Fang You can find his work over at thepowerrank.com Ed Sports kind of trickling back now. How you doing today? I'm doing pretty good. Yeah We got some UFC this weekend Korean baseball is Starting to play God bless them for figuring out how to test massively and do contact tracing and all the things They're doing over there And yeah NASCAR is coming back for you next weekend. So my gosh Yeah, I saw some this morning the Bundesliga is trying to come back by the end of the month and You know what that means just lots of data in empty stadiums, and I'm sure that you are just Static about the possibility of having that data. Yeah, it's gonna be interesting I'm not a static about going and getting the data, but but yeah, it'll be it'll be interesting to look at and You know while I have that data, you know, I can actually run some numbers about You know how good teams are as well which which I may or may not use but yeah No, it'll be it's good to get something back and As we head towards hopefully a football season this fall. Yeah, well, we'll see about that But getting power ratings around the KBO That'd be amazing. Have you picked out a KBO team to root for yet? Because like I've not educated me on who I should pick okay, so I I am a Minnesota Twins fan, which means in theory I could root for the LG Twins but I'm actually drawn towards a former twin Young Ho Park place with the Kaewom heroes and some kind of leaning that way But I think that for next week that could be your homework is to find a KBO team to root for Either that or find a favorite NASCAR driver movie. We can get that cooking instead Yeah, that would be good. Both those things would be good Yeah, and we I mean, it's nice to have these sports back, but like It's good to have the optimism around USC NASCAR There are rumors about major league baseball Maybe being back July 1st uncut very much unconfirmed and sometimes refuted rumors, but hey, you know, I'll take whatever I can get Football's a tougher sell for me to get behind right now because it's just so many people at that I think that that's a major complicating factor, especially for like college when like You kind of need all students to be on campus There you go order to like sell it. Yeah. Well, no You need all students to be on campus. I think you need to give them the option to be on campus in order to make it a something where you can like Still still attempt to sell amateurism in like we can debate whether or not they should be saying making that argument Their amateurs to begin with but it would really kill their argument Which would be hilarious if they had college football while not having campuses open Right, I mean, they're not gonna have that right like I mean University of Michigan is not like canceled all summer activities Which I presume means that the football team can't come back and train and Until the football players can get back on campus and start to train. You can't even talk about having a season I mean, I suppose you could they could get back in August and you get throw them on a football field For a game, but I don't I don't think that's gonna happen because you would see more injuries than you're probably gonna see already So at least for the University of Michigan, like we're talking about kids getting back on campus to start training in September Like that that would be a good thing, right? Like that would be the very optimistic scenario So I realistically think like our best case Scenario for football is that the NFL will figure it out this fall They'll get it done figure out the testing and how they're gonna go about that playing empty stadiums and then college football Kicks off as soon as the Super Bowl is over. Yeah in February Fine, I'm not gonna complain about that if we get football for from September through like yeah May No, it'd be real Cuz I don't I don't watch enough Well, I would like to watch more NFL in the fall Right that you know trying to hang out with my family thing kind of gets away because I do spend a lot of time on Saturday watching college football right to have nine months where you're you're having You know just one league to follow would be would be pretty awesome. Obviously like it would suck to not have college football this fall But I think you know, I mean even in terms of this podcast, right? Like I think it would be great to like just focus on one of the footballs at a time Could even throw some other things in So I mean, I honestly like I think that's the best-case scenario like I don't I don't think college football is coming back Before the spring. I just I don't see it happening. Maybe they could split a season play four games in November. Yeah play the rest of the season later but You know, and this is this is really the best-case scenario and this is all contingent on not having another outbreak, right and It sounds like projections of when there'd be a vaccine like It's to be like January That would be a mere that would be a miracle correct I didn't get started working on a vaccine. It's like 12 to 18 months is usually the projection I think But I was worried initially about college football because like I love having college football to watch on Saturdays However, once you put the idea in my head of having football from September through May I'm kind of infatuated with that idea now and I'm like kind of cool, you know, there are worse things So that's what it comes to We'll be all right but It'll be interesting to see at least we have some things to hold us over until then but It'll be fascinating to see how all this plays out. Hopefully some miracle happens. We don't have to worry about it But the idea of a perpetual football season is not, you know, it's not the worst thing that is for sure I mean, it would be interesting to see if like college football ratings like jump 30 in the spring I had to imagine they would The XFL got ratings the XFL was a tear I don't want to say it was a terrible product It was not as aesthetically pleasing as the nfl and people didn't have the allegiances they have To the XFL that they do in college So I feel like you take the XFL ratings, which were good. They were very good relative to other sports And you jack those up X percent, I don't know what that percentage would be but like I think they'd be sitting pretty for sure I know well, I mean and that's okay. So we get to this best case scenario We're sitting here a year from now We're going to watch the college football championship game and everyone in the nc double a is like You know, there's going to be the pressure not to put those kids out on the football field again in three or four months So perennial spring college football. I don't know There'd be a lot of timers that would be against that but I don't know a lot of people in the midwest That would uh, you know, not you know, when we do get back in the stadiums They don't really want to go to the home opener in february in 20 degree weather But you know I mean, you know, it might be one of those things where just the tv money You know, if your tv money if your tv contract is going to be 30 40 bigger, right? Why not let's roll It'll be fun to see for sure But obviously a lot bigger issues to tackle before then but we'll see how things play out as mentioned We're talking barry cohen find him on twitter at scary barry four We're going to break down ufc barry is a writer for us at number fire who have a betting guide up on number fire dot com Later this week We're talking ufc 249 how you bet ufc because I frankly have no idea So we're going to have barry explain that to us and have him break down his favorite bets on this card For those of you who do know ufc and want some insight on the actual matches themselves Barry will go through that as well. Last week here on covering the spread We talked to dr. Eric eager a pro football focus Discussed the betting fallout of the 2020 nfl draft. I also talked with scott warfield of nascar He is the director of gaming for nascar Talked about the intersection of eye racing betting nascar I talked to him at like Three o'clock on thursday and then at like 3 30 they announced that nascar was resuming so Slightly poor timing because I could have talked to him about that had I known that was going to be happening that afternoon But uh, still I think good insight from him about the future of betting on nascar and Markets they'd want offered and things like that So make sure you check out that and the chat with uh with eric eager by searching for recovery in the spread Wherever you get your podcasts apple podcasts spotify stitcher google play store We are all those places and if you like what you hear Please leave a rating and review as well Fandall sportsbook is now available in colorado, but what's a sportsbook with no sports? Well, it's actually fandall anything book Fandall's newest free game each day You'll pick one free prop like the weather stocks anything and pick it right to win five bucks in site credit And then play again tomorrow play fandall anything book free only on fandall sportsbook Must be 21 plus max bonus is $50 visit fandall.com slash audio for terms gambling problem call 1-800-522-4700 Let's bring in Barry Cohen now to break down UFC 249 and get his thoughts on this card as sports start to kindle back up this weekend Covering the present Let's bring Barry Cohen into covering the spread Barry ufc 249 coming up this weekend. How are you doing today? I'm doing a lot better now that we got this coming up. I cannot wait for this What has the sports list life been like for you for the past? I guess we can say almost a couple of months now because it's been nearly two months What have you been doing to occupy the time? It is a lot of waiting and then we got tempted with the ufc card a couple weeks ago So taking that away and now it's back But it's been nice just relax around the house and the closest thing to watching sports We've had uh, the michael jordan coming back. So we got a little taste so far Yeah, a little taste, but this will be the full on action and it seems like a really good card So i'm going to dive into this card here for ufc 249 and I don't know a lot about ufc So we're going to ask some very basic questions of you barry because i'm assuming a lot of our audience Do probably hasn't bet usc all that often. So let's just start the basics here What are the key markets and the big markets you can bet when betting on ufc? Absolutely, um, and I think we'll welcome a lot of new betters to this for this one So the primary bet is going to be your money line Um, just who's going to win the fight? Straight up and it's you know, not like NFL or other sports really where you're looking at a spread too much Um, and then there's the inside the distance or whether the fight goes to decision You'll hear called by both of those And that's just whether the fight is going to be finished inside the three rounds or five rounds for a championship fight And then you also want to look at those for each fighter If you have a fighter that you think is going to win maybe look at him Is he going to win inside the distance or by decision? And then if you think he is going to finish the fight you can also take a look at is he going to win by knockout or submission And for you which market do you tend to find the most success in are you mostly going with the money lines? Or do you like to get into the more in-depth markets to try to find some inefficiencies there? I tend to look at the money line for my primary bets I like to look a lot at the number for the fight going the distance That will kind of tell you if they are expecting a finish or not And you can kind of go with your bets from there, but I don't typically bet that number And then for this card since we do have a lot of big favorites I found some in there that I'm going to look at fighters winning inside the distance Excellent, so Barry we're a definitely a data driven podcast So we really like to know what sources that we can get to help with research What statistics matter for you and and how do you go about finding them? So a lot of people might not equate USC betting with looking at the numbers, you know They kind of just look at it as a fight, but there are a ton of stats that you can get a lot of information out I look at the USC stats site. It used to be called fight metric You can start there with just fighter records and their info, you know, their reach the basic numbers about them Then you want to also look at average fight time That can tell you a lot about if you know, how long they've spent in the octagon Which tells you, you know, how long they've been around But also are there fights ending within a minute? Are they like a knockout artist or do they tend to go the distance like we talked about above? And then also they're striking and grappling numbers average strikes per minute landed and absorbed and then as well as wrestling and takedown numbers And then finally submissions as well. So when they get to the ground, how often are they going for submissions? Or are they just staying in top control? Also like the ufc stat leaders that leaders that ufc That one has a lot on this card. We have donald seroni who holds Probably more records than anybody in the ufc has the most wins total fights finishes Knockdowns and he's one shy of the most knockout wins Um, it also tells you the longest average fight times, which is dominant cruise another one of the fighters on this card And the guy he's fighting henry suhudo One of the record he holds he has the second lowest bottom position percentage So he does not spend a lot of time with a guy on top of him on the ground Things like that can tell you a lot about the fight Um, and in the main event justin gaichi. He has the most strikes landed per minute 8.57 So things like that on the stat leaders at ufc.com You can all obviously tell a lot about whether a fighter is a striker wrestler What you're going to expect when they get them an octagon So when you're looking at the data, are you mostly using that to inform What type of fights you're going to see and what the matchup looks like or are there certain numbers you can turn to To know quality of fighter. Is it is it more matchup or quality that you're leaning from these stats? A little bit of both You're going to learn a lot about the fight if you have a two guys that are throwing a lot of strikes per minute And also absorbing them You can probably write off most of the wrestling or anything for that fight because they're probably just going to be standing up and hitting each other Um, and then when you you can look at a fight and see a guy with a lot of wrestling stats Versus a stand-up fighter you can kind of tell the storyline of how that fight's going to go One guy's going to try and take the other guy to the ground The other guys want to going to want to stand up and not get taken down to the ground So it tells you a lot about the fight itself as well as the fighters And then you can kind of dive in too if you see a guy that is You know, he's an upcoming prospect. He's doing really well, but you see his average fight time is really low He's just knocking guys out really quickly. You might want to go ahead and dive into some of his fights before the ufc and see Okay, this guy is really great at knocking people out But what happens when he doesn't get the knockout and he goes to the second round? Um, so it might just even tell you that you need to look a little bit more into a guy Yeah, that's really interesting Yeah, for sure. And i'm definitely interested in kind of styles of fighting particularly after the tyson fury versus deontae wilder Fight, you know, they were even odds heading into it But wilder is known as the knockout artist and he came in and wasn't able to knock out fury Fury I think is known as the better boxer and he was able to he pretty much dominated the match So do you side with guys who are just better fighters as opposed to knockout artists or what is your perspective on that for ufc? It is interesting. You you really want to at least identify where they are And you can kind of look from the early days of the ufc That's kind of how it started the submission artists and the grapplers really took over and dominated it rather when People came in just as boxers or strikers They couldn't really hold up now It has evolved and there are different kinds of styles and different things work for other people Um, I think the wrestlers are really taken over now And you can look at things like that to like if you have a submission artist They might be really great, but if they're up against a wrestler, well, they're not going to be able to take the guy down So what good does their submission do? So it really tells you a lot about how a fighter is going to match up with his opponent So you're saying right now it's more because because aren't the submission guys Aren't they going to be the better wrestlers too? Is that how to think about it? A little bit different. Um, the wrestling is a lot about, you know Getting taken down and taking the other guy down Whereas the submission stuff kind of starts when you're already on the ground for the most part You can do a lot of submissions standing up But a lot of people are going to favor a lot of those. Um, the knockout artists basically you're looking for A knockout with them And when they come up against a guy that they're probably not likely to lock out you might want to stay away from them a little bit So are there you may have kind of just covered this in a way But are there some types of fighters some archetypes that are like bad matchups? Based on the way they fight and you may have again just kind of alluded to this But are there some archetypes we should be looking for as being bad matchups quote-unquote bad matchups for other types of fighters? Absolutely. Um, kind of the one I touched on earlier with the grappler versus the um wrestler we had Damian Maya who's widely known as one of the best grapplers in UFC and MMA history Um, and he set the record for most failed takedown attempts when he took on tyron woodley He simply just couldn't take the guy down. He was a wrestler We also have a pretty good example in this one and one of the heavyweight fights. We have a lexio linic. Um, he is just a complete Submission artist. He basically wants to submit anybody fights, which is fairly rare for a heavyweight But he's going to be going up against fabrisio verdum now who Might be just as good of a grappler against him and is also probably better in every other aspect of the fight too So when you have we're going up against the guy who can take out your one dimension And even beat you with that and he's better in pretty much everything else too. You can see why verdum is a minus 330 favorite there Uh, let's break down two of the bigger matches on this card The two headliners here starting off with tony fergusson against jesson gaichi who you had alluded to before as being a big striker fergusson minus 174 right now at fando sportsbook Which side are you favoring here if you see any value in that line at all? Okay, well the first thing I see is just fireworks. This is but you don't want to blink during this one Um, I am slightly leaning towards tony fergusson. He is a guy that has Been up around the light. I'm sorry the lightweight championship for a while He's this is not his first time fighting for the interim belt. He was supposed to fight the actual champ could be This would have been their fifth time, but that couldn't go So I like him there The odds are are pretty good on this one. So you're not really finding much value But when i'm picking aside, I am going to go with fergusson Um, I touched on earlier gaichi throwing the most strikes per minute in ufc history He also absorbs a full strike per minute above that rate. So this guy does not care about getting hit He's already said this week that he's hoping his nose gets broken Um, he is and all he's a former all-american wrestler, but he refuses to wrestle. He he wants to entertain the fans He has zero ufc takedowns Um fergusson is throwing 5.81 strikes per minute or sorry landing. So it's three less than gaichi. Um, but of course, he's absorbing way less Um, he is willing to go for the takedown not too much 0.56 takedowns for 15 minutes, which would be a full three-round fight there But the other big thing with him is he's averaging 0.88 sub attempts per the trip to the ground So if it goes to the ground, he's likely to go over a submission attempt Um, which is interesting too because saying gaichi's a wrestler He's not going to be likely to start wrestling now because when he goes to the ground, he's going to be at a disadvantage there That's really interesting the background with gaichi Uh, not wanting to wrestle despite being so so good at that How does that influence the way you look at him as a better? Is he more volatile because he he Operates that way or I mean it feels very interesting that he he willingly chooses to go that route Absolutely volatile and this is not any secret or anything. It's probably brought up in every interview that he ever gets Um, he just he wants to entertain the fans. He likes to stand and bang It worked for him. He was you know came into the ufc undefeated Started off pretty well there, but then he ran into two guys that hit pretty hard and eddy alvarez and dustin poyer um And he has said recently that he might go to the wrestling and do that a little bit But I I don't see it coming in this. I'm expecting chaos in this one So the other headliner is henry sehudo versus dominant cruise for the bannam weight championship Sehudo is uh is that favorite in this one? How do you see this playing up? Um, this one is another one where I think the the odds are are pretty spot-on. Um, I like henry sehudo I think the line is Higher than I like, but I can't have everything I have so I'm gonna stick the henry sehudo there. This is Uh, it's a wild fight. Um dominant cruisers is coming back from an almost three and a half year layoff If you want to look at from perspective if you look at think of the last time ronda rousey was in the ufc Dominic cruis was the co-main event to her main event on that fight. That's how long ago. It's been since this guy fought Um, if he has taken a two-year break before this guy gets hurt a lot and has returned to a top level But he's coming back after three and a half years and he lost his last fight to kody garbrand So this one is very interesting. Um on the other side We have sehudo to what the side that I like this is only his third fight In the ufc at this weight class. Uh, he was the champ at the weight class below this and now he is He came up. He won the belt. He defended the belt and this would be his second time defending the belt there And he was actually supposed to fight hosey all though. Um, he'll be taken on dominant cruise here I don't think it's He's four inches shorter and he's given up four inches in reach But the last two guys he fought at this weight class were three inches more reach over him as well And sehudo he had a little bit of weight issues. Um At 125 as well. So at 135 he it might be a good weight class for him um looking at this one cruise And sehudo this is a lot more likely than the last fight to actually go the distance even uh, Though it's a full round full five round fight cruise has gone the distance in 10 of his 13 ufc and wbc fights Um, one technical decision one doctor stoppage and one knockout No submissions there and six of his last seven fights went five rounds So cruise is no stranger to the five round fight um So hudo has only been the five round distance one time And he actually has three knockout wins in his past five fights and those are across two weight classes So an interesting one there. He is plus 280 to win by knockout in this fight. Um, Like I said, he's done it three times in his past five fights He's fighting an older fighter who is coming off a three and a half year layoff and some injuries So that's a number that I do uh, want to take a look at in this one. I like that a lot How much does the uncertainty around not knowing what kind of shape a galactic dominant cruise is going to be in Influence your willingness to enter markets around a fight that involves him It is It's a big influence. Um, he is an absolute professional. He is a ufc commentator So you probably see him around a lot. So it's not like he's been away from the game um, he has good training partners. He's over at alliance and may with a good team and He came out like I said, he took this fight as a replacement Out of nowhere after being offered three and a half years So there's clearly something that he likes in this matchup He went out of his way to choose this his name wasn't even coming up So that is really the number one thing that's scaring me in this matchup is he is clearly confident that this is something he can win um But it it just doesn't it's weird. He's three and a half years away. I can't really take a bet on him there Well, I think another aspect that's interesting here is it's not just this card that we have for us See we have another card coming up I think middle of next week and there are smaller cards that aren't going to be as as much publicized Coming up in your experience. Do you find more inefficient lines on those less? I guess public may be the way to say it those less public cards Do you find better lines available there just because they may not be as heavily bet? Absolutely Um, like this one has been coming together and been cancelled on and off for so long that I think the lines are kind of Settled in like I saw Francis and Ghana earlier went down to minus 250. He didn't even sit down for a cup of coffee and was already back up So I don't see too much value strain around here Whereas those smaller cards, especially with them just coming together short like a couple weeks before the fight I think there's going to be a ton of value coming up on those And that has to be an influence that like this UFC main event is coming in a sports betting desert For everyone else, right? So there's probably a lot of people looking to bet this Probably making the more lot the market more efficient Absolutely It's the oh, well, I guess the the Korean baseball has taken the world by storm right now But uh, the UFC is the big thing on right now And we've been looking forward to this for so long that it's hard to find value on this card The high womb heroes, man. We gotta we gotta get behind them. Uh, jungle park. Let's go. Um So we have 10 other fights on this card on saturday. So pretty wild A wild selection here any other standout to you as having advantageous betting odds right now Absolutely. Um, so I think I have already touched on it this heavyweight fight that is there from the top I can I've been waiting for this for so long. Um, it's francis and ghanu versus uh, jair rose and struck and this one We talked about the odds of um fights going the distance and things this fight is minus 380 to finish inside the three routes So if they're basically expecting a knockout, um I like francis and ghanu to win minus 270 is Probably about right for where he is But with the minus 380 line inside the distance this fight is very likely to end inside So I'd rather take the number at minus 175 for francis and ghanu to win inside the distance I am leaning towards him winning by knockout, but he does have he can win by submission. Um, and the number by just finished winning. Um By knockout wasn't really too much better for me. So I'm going to stick with inside the distance at 175 for francis and ghanu Um, I think the guy rose and struck that he's fighting is Pretty much a lesser version of francis and ghanu, which is quite a compliment unless you're going against francis and ghanu And and I also like uh, the very first fight on the card is a big one It's uh, ryan span versus sam alvi. It is a huge line spans minus 410 to win So if you want to throw that in a parlay, you could I think he's pretty much, uh Squared away that he's gonna win there But the distance between minus 410 to win and minus 145 for span to win inside the distance I think is huge and I really like that. Um, Span has gone the distance one time in his four fights between the ufc and the day in my contender series And that includes him taking out little nog and emiliano sordi. He's subbed emiliano sordi in under a minute Sordi just ran the table and won a million dollars in pfl last season And the guy that spans fighting sam alvi He's been around for a while. He's been knocked out twice in his last three fights Including one of those knockouts was by little nog who like I said span knocked out on the first round So I really like span minus 145 inside the distance For an underdog we can go over to the women. This is in the lightest division These they're fighting at minus 115 michelle waterson and carla asparza I like waterson the plus 136 underdog This fight is actually On the other end of that and got a one this fight is minus 400 to go the distance So it's very likely that's when goes to decision So you can also get waterson a plus 210 to win by decision. I like that one as well And then we have uh viscente luke and nico price these guys. I I don't know why this fight's happening Visente luke already beat him by second round submission in october of 2017 So I don't think much has changed there luke's honestly gotten better price is kind of a wild fighter He he's getting better, but I don't really see much there. So I like that a lot. It's luke minus 270 Um, you if that would be one that I'd probably throw in parlays to or just take straight up And then I touched on a fabrisio verdum earlier just kind of being better especially at lexio linux strength and then I'm still on the fence. Um with uriah hall. I think there is a little bit of value I think if his number goes up and he becomes a bit of a bigger underdog against jack array susan I will jump on that Uh hall's a guy that's actually living in his gym right now This will be his second fight since he switched teams and it's become his actual home. So I am uh I think that is working out well for him and I'm excited to see how he can put that to use Well, he could not have picked a better time to do that Outstanding Well, that is barry cohen. Again, he is a writer for number fire make sure you check out barry on twitter at scary barry For barry. We appreciate all the insights talking some ufc with us. Enjoy the fights on saturday and good luck with all your bets Thank you so much for having me on. It's great to have sports back and I love being all with you guys We appreciate it. Thank you barry Covering the future One big thank you once again to barry cohen for swinging by and breaking down ufc and ed USC is really interesting and there are like so many factors to consider and like that's true for a lot of sports But I find it more fascinating to discuss those factors in sports I don't know and ufc very much qualifies because I'm very squeamish and it's hard for me to watch it Just because I'm again very squeamish But it's interesting to hear about all those different factors that go into it for a sport that I don't know Yeah, for sure. I mean, I'm a big boxing fan and you know, there's again Like I mentioned like the idea of like a big hitter versus someone who really knows that box and Knows the nuances of the sport and then you consider something like ufc and there's just so many other factors beyond Simply the boxing element of it in terms of wrestling and takedowns and submissions and things like that I've watched a couple of ufc fights, but yeah never really immersed myself into it So so it'll be interesting to to get into it this weekend and and Try to appreciate the multifaceted nature of the the sport. Yeah, for sure And I think that it's it's it's really interesting And I've watched it when I've like been out at bars and like that and it's been on and like it's fun to watch I just to get I can't because I'm so like squeamish. Um, I would I think that like hearing Barry talk about how some of the guys are like wrestlers is intriguing because High school wrestling is kind of like an art. I guess like I used to have to call high school wrestling in my my old job when I did When I worked in radio I'd have to like do play-by-play and like you kind of get to love it really quickly because it is it's like a dance It's it's art. It's artistic. Um, it's really fun to watch So maybe that element if I can find some fights that skew more that direction. I could really get into it, but um I'm more intrigued about watching it now that I know Have a more baseline level of knowledge about it. I guess are you squeamish about a guy just getting hit so hard in the face that Yeah, wild, right? Yeah, all right I was just wondering I mean like I I have a very good track record of avoiding gruesome things like I've never seen the kevin wear injury Despite the fact I heard it on radio. I heard his bone break on radio. I didn't see it. Um, I have not seen Like the the paul george injury I if it's bad It would make me vomit. I've avoided it and I'm pretty good about knowing when to avoid twitter and stuff Uh, if I know things will be bad. So it's a skill If I got my resume, I'm putting that one down for sure I'm trying to think how to prank you through email now, you know, that'd be you could make that You could do it pretty easily because I open all ed fang things. Um, so You have an in you have an unfair advantage that that most things do not Um, so if someone were to make it happen I have faith in you. Well, what about what about like boxing? Would you watch a boxing match because they have gloves and it's not or Boxing I think A big part of the the squeamish thing is I hate the way like if it's like a submission attempt or something I hate the way the bodies can tort because it's like, ah, that shouldn't happen And like there's part of that in like wrestling too. So like Maybe I could be more okay with it now that I've like since I had to watch a lot of like wrestling when I was doing that All job, uh, but like, right? I don't know. I just I'm a wimp is I think the the biggest the bigger underlying thing here is I can't deal with it So well wimp. They used to play offensive line, right? So yeah, but like there's no there's no Poking, uh, there's nothing weird about offensive lines. So uh, you get your head smashed in on every play But you don't you don't see heads. You don't see brain injuries, Ed Which I think is the more disturbing thing we could possibly talk about With football But yeah, are you gonna pay for the pay-per-view for this because I think it's interesting I'm I'm like tempted I guess it's a business expense. Why not? Yeah, can I write off my I already filed for I guess this would be going to 2020 anyway So this would be for next year. I'll have to I'll have to talk to my account and see what we can Look up there. Uh, let's move on to covering the future and next week NASCAR is coming back at and Set to resume and they're gonna have a stretch where there will be four races in 11 days Just for the cup series alone That means that there will be four wins allocated in that time Which and wins play a major role in determining the champion because a win gives you five playoff points That can help you advance help you get to that championship So wins matter a lot and we're gonna have four separate win bonuses allocated in an 11 day span So I want to look at championship odds right now and see Who is someone who may be a bit undervalued in the betting markets with that That knowledge that there is a major inflection point coming and the one that sticks out to me is Ryan Blaney at 28 to 1 If you look at just the current form section of my NASCAR betting model, which is the more reliable segments Track history is in there. It's just not as good But you look at just the current form model Ryan Blaney is the seventh ranked driver in NASCAR and that is despite a Poor race in phoenix where he got wrecked pretty early. That's dragging his ranking down But he's still seventh even when you have that in there He is tied for 11th in championship odds at vandal sportsbook sitting at 28 to 1 So seventh versus 11th and I think the seventh may be underrating him a bit and everyone ahead of him In the current form rankings has championship odds that are 16 to 1 or shorter And only two guys are longer than 10 to 1 and again Blaney's down at 28 to 1 So that's interesting to me In order to get the championship wins will be a priority and Blaney does not have any of those yet this year But he has been close in three of the four races He is one at a bunch of different track types. I guess three different track types in his cup series career So I think it's reasonable to expect the wins to come Especially when we look at the way the schedule breaks down in the in the near future He was one of the cars to beat in los vegas and that's the lone race We've had so far this year on an intermediate track a one and a half mile track and darlinton 1.36 miles, uh, then straw it is 1.5 So each of the next four races will be at intermediate tracks Which means that the strength of blaney should show through his track history at darlinton is Frankly really bad. Uh, so I think that maybe you could say he's not going to benefit from that But I put more stock into current form, especially when it's at a track They only go to once per year and when it's a young driver and blaney counts are both though So if you're looking for someone shorter, maybe You don't want to go for a long shot for the cup series championship odds You could bet blaney's teammate. It's Joey Logano. He's seven to one. Denny Hamlin is 11 to one I don't mind either of those guys, but blaney is my favorite at 28 to 1 Because that does lock up bankroll for quite a long time November is when the championship will we assume be handed out on the cup series So I'd like to go with a longer shot there, but blaney has checked that off at 28 to 1 Now Ed, we talked before about how NASCAR is not necessarily a thing But can I sell you on it when it's the only show in town effectively? Well, it's definitely what do you mean? It's not a thing. It's a thing I mean like are you gonna watch it though? Uh, well, maybe Yeah Yeah next weekend, right next weekend on sunday And then they have an Xfinity series race, which is the AAA of NASCAR effectively. That's on Tuesday I had to Pull all the data. I didn't have because I haven't bet on the Xfinity series a whole lot and I didn't have Any data on it. So I had to go back and pull it so I could like make my my model for it And like it was really fun. So I'm pumped for the Xfinity series race the tuesday and then another cup series race on wednesday So sunday tuesday wednesday three races All on national tv And you're gonna have sports to watch because the kbo is on when I am very asleep So as much as I'm excited for it. I like researching it. I can't watch it at all But I can watch NASCAR. So maybe we can get you into NASCAR here in the next couple weeks That sounds good. Hey, I did want to ask you so with the phoenix thing in the wreck I mean, there's got to be a lot of randomness in that right exactly So, um, I mean, how do you deal with that your models? Yeah, it's it's tough because When I'm looking at my model, um, it's always going to pull in recent races and There could be ways to qualify it where I omit Any average running position that's worse than Let's say 25th because if it's worse than 25th and you're a contender, you're probably wrecked So I think that that's one way I could do it But I also Use this for daily fantasy and I want to have a measure of volatility in there and safety does matter there From a betting perspective, I think that the better way to do it would be just to like toss those out And there are ways you can do so Within data sets and stuff like that. So maybe I could consider that but There is some randomness. I think that with younger drivers They tend to have higher wreck rates. David Smith of the athletic has done research into that and Ryan Blaney is younger So maybe there is some value in having that in there But it's it's something that I think is the biggest inefficiency within my model is the fact that it doesn't It does account for wrecks, but not as much as it should. I think it's the way I'd phrase that I mean every driver probably has at least one wreck a season or what? Oh, yeah per season Per season. Yeah, this does not pull for a full season It pulls like the past x races and then any Relevant races at like similar tracks effectively. So like let's say so Blaney wrecked in phoenix That means that his wreck in phoenix is going to pop up as being a negative in my model when they go to New Hampshire when they go to Richmond because those are also short flat tracks where I classify phoenix as being a similar track So it's going to taint his data like for a decent amount of time just a question of like Can I lower the value within that and it's something that I would like to try to do Like maybe I could do it now because we got time we got nothing but time so I could do that now Yep, sounds good. Alrighty. Let's wrap up here with quarantine corner for this week ed we are on to like week eight I think of Of isolation and stuff. So what have you been doing to occupy your time? So, uh, I really like oversimplified. It's a youtube channel He does like these cartoon animations of history. So if you're into history Uh, it's really worth watching he So he did a recent one on Henry the eighth I think it came out maybe 36 hours ago and already has 3 million views. Whoa Yeah, so it's it's a big deal and they're funny like he makes it. It's kind of lighthearted. It's kind of funny Henry the eighth is obviously a historical figure with uh, with a lot of good stories given that he had six wives and and all that um, and That's about all I remember from Henry eighth from from high school history class But he just kind of brings it all together tells the story of his dad It's funny lighthearted and then he's got you know, he doesn't he doesn't do a ton of videos I mean, maybe like a total of 20, but they're all really good. Um last two were like the civil war I'm pretty sure I've talked about it on the show once. Okay But if you I mean if you like history like go check out oversimplified I mean you you you just get down the rabbit hole and they're long. They're you know, 26 30 minutes each of the videos and and they're well done and I don't know who it is. I've tried to figure out Who the guy is and I can't like it's just not easy to find But at the end of one of his videos He did have a baseball player like he used you know He showed a picture of a baseball player just because he was making some kind of point and it was a rice baseball player Oh interesting. Was it? I kind of wonder if it's someone like That went to rice and if it is like someone that was there when I was there Yeah, like this could this potentially like be someone I knew when I was there. I don't know Um, but oversimplified on youtube if you like history definitely definitely check it out Well, I think that that sounds fun because Have you ever watched like drunk history? Yeah, like it's entertaining, but you can in theory learn something from it because like I It's bad that okay I will qualify this by saying that it's bad that I have learned things from drunk history But I 100 have that's the full truth. I have um and like I find value in Learning while being entertained and you're not going to learn a ton from something like drunk history But I feel like from oversimplified sound like you probably can't because that's a pretty deep dive into one subject It is a relatively deep dive. Um, the other thing about the videos is that the animations like Let you tell stories that someone just giving a lecture can't so there's animations about how The various forces on a field like would have attacked and you know where where these armies were and things like that I mean, there's just more that you can do with video Also, I feel like education has to be entertaining. Yeah, like it has to be entertaining at least on some level to get people um You know invested in it just get people interested in it. I mean, I definitely believe in that in the content I do over on my site um And Yeah, I think I think it's it doesn't it doesn't mean like every second has to be entertaining because at some point You got to dig into the details, but you got to you know It has to be a little bit lighthearted, which is well, it's like it's like a math problem um Like if the density is higher But you consume less of it the actual amount of knowledge you get out of it will be lower But if you have a lower density thing and you make it more entertaining But people are more inclined to consume more Mathematically eventually that number is going to be higher than the dense product because I can't read like dense books And like I checked out really quickly But if it's entertaining and I can consume more information because I'm consuming more overall Like it's just more volume. And I think that like that makes sense Yeah, and for sure and the thing is like, you know with with uh with youtube It's you know, I mean who knows who's fact-checking it, right? So I might be spouting out all kinds of You know incorrect facts about history, but I don't know. It's pretty well watched. Um, I mean, it's pretty consistent with at least my Yeah, uh Understanding of history. So you always got to be careful with that. I mean, especially on twitter. Sure So much stuff out there, you know, you just got to Be careful to uh to filter right, absolutely. I think it's interesting that like I don't know. I don't consume a whole lot of content on youtube. Um, and I feel like I am Counter to like my age bracket in that sense But it seems like you tend to be more like Well versed in like youtube series and stuff like that, which I think is cool because like it's it's something I don't know a whole lot about is that because of like It's something that like kids consume a lot of so you've like picked it up like from your kids watching youtube Or is it just something that you happen to like the style of content there? Uh, it's it's a bunch of things. So I actually kind of planning on doing some more video Uh heading into this football season So that's one reason and I've been kind of studying how people's channels work and stuff. So that kind of got me started Um, I also just find it really appealing. Uh, there's you know, I talked about quibi last weekend and that showed dummy And it's interesting like I just don't go to quibi much like I kind of like youtube and just the The wide selection that you get like, I mean, there's a couple of people that review books on there. Um That I don't know. I've been watching a lot of that the last couple days Uh To get idea. I don't know. I just enjoy that So, you know, there's a lot of reasons. I mean, my kids are on it a lot too So, you know, we talk about it and I guess I guess a lot of like more of my youtube consumption started when my son Eli was starting his channel So we were watching a bunch of stuff to get inspired and and things like that. So Uh, you know, I mean, it's not, you know, it's the same kind of like addictive impulse to just scroll through youtube on your phone To see what's going on. It's the same You know, it's meant to hook you in with with with that little dopamine hit and stuff like that So in that sense, it's not very good and I try not to do it when I'm like working and stuff Sure. Not always successful but um But yeah, I actually I mean just a little bit. I am working on a video um To do some kind of data visualization. Um and to explain exponential growth and Very easy way. Yeah, and it has to do with covet and like Uh, and I'm gonna tell my story with the whole thing. I'm I'm almost done Hopefully I'll be able to tell you where to find it next week. Um, but I also believe like fully in terms of data and in terms of sports There are stories that you can tell with video and data that you just cannot You simply cannot tell any other way and it's also a thing that I I also find my very little kids like Intrigued in like there's a way that I can like engage You know one of my kids that doesn't particularly like math Sure, I can engage him in a way if it's like a moving kind of picture Sure So so one of my interests is in in fully exploring that because there's I mean there's there's literally two people on the entire internet Doing like moving data animation machines on on youtube. So it might be an interesting way to to tell sports stories Yeah, I think that might like the favorite piece I've consumed of like Covid data was the washington post doing their thing showing like the impact of like social distancing and stuff. So Um, right it's it's fun when you can learn It's it's a lot easier for me to learn through visualizations. So I'm looking forward to that. That should be uh, pretty good Yeah, just let me jump in real quick. Like I didn't take covid seriously until a youtube video So there's this guy. Uh, he goes by three blue one brown. He does a bunch of math animations He's one of the two people out there that are doing good animations um I didn't take it seriously until he put that video on I was like, oh, this is exponential. Okay. I get it right right Stop joking around about this stuff. I mean, I also was watching that while I was pretty sick. So The point but um, but yeah, so that makes sense another I mean quarantine corner three three blue one brown Uh for math like he does some pretty like serious You know calculus linear algebra type math videos in in and in terms of animations Yeah, um, but he's done some he's done some covid stuff and really good. I mean, I could use that at this point It's been a long time since I've taken a math class So I could definitely use a refresher in a lot of things for sure My quarantine corner for this week is talking about a book Which is weird because I don't read a whole lot of books, but it is a book that is an intersection of Interests for me. Uh, it's called racing to the finish. It's actually written by dale earnhardt jr Um and ryan the g and the reason that I found this super interesting is that I have never read a book That describes what it is like to have a concussion and dale jr famously like battled with concussions throughout the end of his nascar career and Effectively led to his early retirement. The reason I thought that it was so interesting was He described it like feeling drunk Um in the way that when he experienced a concussion He was saying like, okay. I'm waking up this morning. I feel like I am One and a half beers is basically the way that he would describe it And I thought that that was like super interesting because I'd never heard a description Like a concussion be described that way But he has he basically had a a notes app open on his iphone And he takes the notes that he wrote in his iphone so that he could document it and turned it into a book Which is amazing because like I consume football a lot. Um, but like when I was in journalism school I did reports about football about helmets and things like that and I I You know, it's interesting. It's very good to know. So when i'm talking about it I'm not talking about it in a super callous way But it's also that impacts nascar drivers and he went up to a research university in pittsburgh and talked about the the I guess rehab that he went through which you can do for concussions And it was really fun to read. I mean like I guess fun is not the right word, but it was interesting to read His experiences with it because a it kind of shows you like How scary all these things are But it also gives you a greater perspective of like what these people are going through and how much that can like mess you up Um, and it doesn't sound like a fun hang when you describe it that way But it's so unique In the way that he presents it so that that I'd still recommend it. Um, ryan McGee is the the co-writer He hosts a radio show on espn. Uh called marty and the ghee. They're awesome And he his like His style is kind of in a two in the writing by dale jr. So I definitely check it out if you Want a better understanding of concussions, but also maybe if you're just an ascar fan and want to read about that from dale jr he talks about like effectively being scared during races um at talladega And how that influences decisions, but it was honestly fascinating to read that But I didn't realize how much concussions affected him specifically Until I read this book. So it was it was really interesting for sure Yeah, that sounds really cool. And I like the idea of just like constantly taking notes and like going back like stitching a story Uh together through that Um, it reminds me of my friend. Uh, so separate thought reminds me of a friend, uh, up the street He's been making this joke. He's like, yeah, I woke up this morning and I thought I had covid And then I just remembered I was hungover But the same kind of idea that you know, you know feel right in the morning and Either we're drinking too much last night or you got a concussion from being an ascar driver Yep, exactly. Um and the notes app thing is interesting too because one of my favorite articles I've read was um, it was spencer hall from or previously at espionation and He went to a baseball game in colorado Put himself in an altered state which is legal to do in colorado and took down notes on his app Or notes on his phone about what he experienced at a baseball game And like the between inning promotions from that perspective are amazing So awesome find that from spencer hall, uh at edsbs It should still be up on the site, but that was that was fun But I am pro anything notes app being turned into content content. I can consume. I think it's fascinating So, uh, racing to finish by dale jr. And spencer hall too Nice, we're allowed to say smoking pot on the show, right? Oh, yeah, I just like saying in a weird way It's way more fun I'd rather dance around it because it's just way more fun for me personally. Yeah I mean, honestly, it's just like a good content idea in general like taking experience that Few people have and is interesting Uh, and uh, write a ton of notes and then put it together in a story I mean, honestly like even going through like lockdown would have been Fascinating for like people 10 years down the road who didn't experience or whatever like, yeah But I my it's my day-to-day experience isn't that different because I work from home anyway I don't interact with people all that often so like it hasn't affected me So I'd be the wrong person to do that, but right If I could go back in time and get someone else to do it for me I think that would be interesting uh in the future as well That is all that we have for today. Uh back again next week We're gonna talk some NASCAR to get you set for all the races coming up there So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts and ones to get If you like what you hear, please leave a rating and review as well Thank you to Barry Cohen follow him on twitter at ScaryBarry4 and make sure you check out his betting guide over at numberfire.com As well big. Thank you to Calvin Theobald our video producer for doing all the video stuff here today Thank you Cal as always and Uh, where do people find your work both online and on twitter? Yeah, I'm at the powering on twitter uh kind of a Weird weird and good number of uh new followers this week. I don't know what were you on a podcast or something? Yeah, I was on this podcast I guess that counts Your own podcast I guess that counts Uh and then uh at the powerank Uh at thepowerank.com. Yeah, that's my website And uh, yeah, uh the email newsletter is the way to go there. You can sign up for it at thepowerank.com Alrighty that is uh, and I am at gymsana's j i m s a n n e s Make sure you follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast as well Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck If you decide to lay down some bets on usc 249 this weekend We'll talk to you again next week and stay healthy everybody This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network