 Good afternoon. My name is Paul Heinz. I'm the managing editor of VT Digger. Thank you for joining us for today's event during which we will discuss the future of Vermont's congressional representation. I'd like to start by introducing our all-star panel of political experts. Lola Duffort is our political and state government reporter for VT Digger. Prior to that Lola spent three years covering education for VT Digger and previously reported for the Concord Monitor and the Rutland Herald. She lives in Montpelier. Welcome Lola. Thanks for having me. Liz Vankowski is a trustee of the Ben and Jerry's Foundation and serves on the boards of Green Mountain Power, the High Meadows Fund, and the Trust Company of Vermont. Though she claims she's out of politics now, Liz has quite a bit of experience in the arena serving on the congressional staff of the Reverend Robert Drinan of Massachusetts running Governor Madeline Cunin's historic 1984 campaign and becoming Cunin's gubernatorial chief of staff. She also served on the transition teams of President Bill Clinton and Governor Peter Shulman. She lives in Rattleboro. Welcome Liz. Nice to be here. Denise Casey owns and operates Casey Inc. Public Affairs Media and Communications firm. She also claims that she's retired from politics, but I don't believe her. Denise worked for all four of Governor Jim Douglas's gubernatorial campaigns as field director, deputy campaign manager, and twice as campaign manager. She also served in a variety of roles in the Douglas administration, including Secretary of Civil and Military Affairs, deputy chief of staff and communications director. She later worked for the Republican Governors Association. Denise lives in South Burlington. Welcome Denise. Thanks Paul. Thanks for having me. And our final panelist is Julia Barnes. She is a Burlington based political consultant who works with progressive candidates and advocacy groups throughout the country. Julia has held a number of leadership roles within the Democratic Party, including a state director of the Democratic Party. During the 2016 presidential primary Julia served as New Hampshire State Director for Senator Bernie Sanders, helping him win the state 60 to 38%. And then she served as national field director for the Sanders campaign. Welcome Julia. Thank you. Happy to be here. The audience members submitted questions in advance of this event, and we'll be posing them to our panel. If you come up with questions while watching, please share them in the chat on our YouTube page and I will try to get to them. We will start by acknowledging the elephant in the room. Within the next few years Vermont's congressional delegation is likely to look a little bit different than it does today. Senator Patrick Leahy who's 81 years old has said that he'll decide within the next few months whether to seek a nearly unprecedented ninth term next November. Already the fifth longest serving US senator in history, he'd set a new record if he served out that term. Senator Bernie Sanders who just turned 80 has served in Congress since 1991. He's up for reelection in 2024. And representative Peter Welch, the whipper snapper of our delegation is a mere 74 years old. He's up for reelection every two years, and he's widely expected to seek a seat in the Senate. If one becomes available. Quick disclosure, I used to work for Peter Welch for about two and a half years as his spokesperson about a decade ago. Together, these three men have served a combined 93 years in Congress to put it another way. I'm 37 years old, and the year that I was born, one of these men was already in the US Senate. One was Merrick Burlington, and one was minority leader of the Vermont Senate. And those of us who follow Vermont politics have been particularly focused on Senator Leahy's plans and so have up and coming politicos. Diane Derby, who until last week served as a field representative for Leahy, wrote in the commentary from VT Digger yesterday quote, It is apparent that there is a strong pool of congressional hopefuls waiting, some more eagerly than others for signal. My box is pretty clear if that unquote. Let's get right to it and ask the question that everyone is asking and then we'll quickly move on from that question and tackle more substantive matters. Lola, why don't you start us off what are you hearing about Senator Leahy's plans. Will he or won't he run for reelection next year. I'm generally hearing that that is a knowable at this point, although it is the subject of wild speculation among Vermont politicos. I had one conversation with someone who was certain that they that, you know, he would not run again, and then they called me back five minutes later with this new piece of information that they thought indicated that he absolutely would not be running would be running. I, you know, a lot of people take him at his word when he says that he hasn't decided yet. And it's very possible that to the senator himself. Julie, what do you hear and is your inbox blowing up much like Diane Derby's. Yes, a lot of people are talking about this right now but this is also the same kind of conversation that came up. I mean, it came up when there was a, you know, slim chance that Bernie would be nominated as a labor secretary. I think it's indicative that folks are really interested and obviously invested in in how our federal delegation shakes out but I think the thing that the thing that I think is important and that I'm sharing with people that I talked to is that the chatter remains very little at this point in time. If Senator Lee he decides to run again his continued service in the Senate will be critical to any chance of retaining a functional Democratic majority in the Senate. And additionally his leadership on appropriations means additional influence for Vermont as a state and for our values, combating climate change dealing with the pandemic embracing economic systems that work for everybody. We're rapidly shifting in Washington and Senator Lee he like most Senate Democrats are in crucial position for the country at large, and are going to play a critical role in moving forward the extremely popular built back better agenda so I think that Senator Lee his head is exactly where it needs to be I think that his focus on the really really important work that's happening in Washington is paramount to speculation. And I think, regardless of, of how we speculate, you know, nobody is going to be able to determine what the immediate future holds. So putting aside the question of will he run Liz, I wonder if you could tell me whether you think he should run, or do you think that it's time for new blood in the delegation. So I approached that question as the one person here who is a boomer. And so the conversation is very much part of my own personal life and how I've been thinking in recent years which is much different than the way I thought five and 10 years and so my question not just for Senator Leahy but also for Senator Sanders and for Congressman Welch is, when is it someone else's turn. It's a really important question. And in Vermont, particularly because we only have three spots. And so I think it's interesting when, you know, when the little kids that's one of the first things we have to learn. One is it someone else's turn, and it's hard. And when you're older and you're pondering. Is it time to move away from the table give someone else a seat. It's also hard when is it someone else's turn. I think that this isn't, I think this just to be a part of the conversation with the three of them. And the reason I feel that way is, we have spent recent years talking so much about the need. To change our demographics, we need to bring younger people here we need them to stay. They'll stay if they see a career path if they see opportunity and possibilities for themselves. So this isn't only just about members of Congress and this is across the spectrum I see this. This is a very serious discussion within the business community, there are handoffs happening. So it's, it's, it's we're unique here in that it's only the three spots one house spot. And it you doesn't I don't think it exactly sense the signal we want to say that there's a lock on these seats. So, so don't even don't even think about it. And then the reality again speaking from my generation, you know I grew up we had television Walter Cronkite and a few broadsheets. And what do we have now. You know, in a very short space of time. We've been so transformed in both generation X and the millennials generation millennials now are a larger part of our national population, then the boomers. But right now in our workforce is even here in Vermont we have four generations you, you probably have the same at digger we have the boomers and Gen X and millennials and Gen C. Which is distinctly different it's not just a matter like well we're older and they're younger they've been shaped by very different circumstances. The millennials have been studied endlessly. You know it started with 911 their, their sense of their own economic possibilities weren't as great as their parents that was a major departure. And so much innovation and change on their watch they've they've they've reshaped the culture they've reshaped communication how we relate to each other. And they're the most diverse generation that we've seen so far. So it, you know, just, I think this all makes a difference Congress on the other hand is just getting older and older I think the average age in the Senate now is 65. And it isn't that they can still contribute in it no way takes away from, you know, the many achievements of our own delegation, the pride we all have in them. So, my, you know, the other some good things going on but if you step back a little bit, you have to acknowledge things are a mess, you know, constantly climate is, you know, happening climate change is happening at a far greater rate. And the question needs to be asked is, is it time to really participate in a generational handoff. And in that sense, I would ask each of them, you know, when do you think it's someone else's turn. Denise, what do you think, Senator Leahy is the president pro tem of the Senate. He's the chair of the appropriations committee, which means that he wields tremendous power over how federal dollars are spent. How those dollars make their way to Vermont. And just this year. He's played a part in bringing your marks back to Congress, which basically means that the state is probably in line for literally a couple hundred million dollars more than it otherwise would be in funding for projects that lay him lay he himself will select. Do you think that that certainly he is too big to fail. Well, so I think it's clear that if Senator Leahy does move on that the the chairmanship of the appropriations committee isn't going to go to the freshman senator from Vermont. And as it stands now as you mentioned our other senators Senator Bernie Sanders chairs the budget committee so this is not a small thing we have enormous influence in Washington given our very small delegation and the size of our state and that is as a result of the the ten years of our of our delegation but we need to be realistic it has to change at some point right and so with that is going to come a shift in power and a shift in influence and new leaders and so for me it's really just it's a matter of when it's about what will happen probably sooner and later and there will be changes from on and and that's an actual unhealthy thing. You know and Paul we need to add to that that Vermont gets more than it gives, we get more you some years ago explored that question we get more back from the federal government than we give. So, and there is also as you know the small state kind of rule or whatever it is where the small states there's a floor. So, you know use coven as an example, I looked at some data from the Peterson Institute, you know, with the two big programs the average per capita for Vermont was $4,000 per person. The average for New York State was $1,200. So, I agree that it is a huge impact how often you get to have the chair of the appropriations committee the budget they have, there is a lot of cloud. So all that has to go into the mix, but I think we also have to look at where do we stand any, you know, there's a lot of discussion on in Congress about the earmarks. And we don't know where it's going to land that supposedly will be very transparent, they may be limited. And you know whoever gets elected is going to have the ability to do some of that because the whole point is then they have something to your regular horse trading around votes and other things so. I think the whole context has to be yeah this comes at a time when you know and again I think a lot of it particularly with Senator Leahy, but we can't reach the conclusion that we would, you know again given our own population dynamics and what we want to be that we would close the door for 40 years, because somebody might then get to be in that position and let's remember how they get there, you get there by being there. And your in your party is in power. So, I think it's all going to be part of their context. I just wanted to, you know, to to your point Liz, I, there's this interesting awkwardness that comes up when I talked to a lot of people about the amount of money that Vermont has received in the coven relief packages, which are very disproportionate amounts compared to what other states have received because of that small state minimum which Senator Lady Leahy is credited for, which has allowed Vermont really contemplate some really transformational changes. Like that money is really not trivial it, it is a huge deal for Vermont, and it is almost certainly not something that we would have at our disposal without, without, you know, having the chairman of the appropriations can be in our congressional delegation, and people feel a little bit weird about it, you know, they will sometimes ask like, is it right that we have this disproportionate influence. And, you know, the reason that the Senate works for us right now is not because it is an entirely representative body. I think there's there's some really interesting tension. Well, even on that point, the, the, the COVID packages also worked because the mostly totally other states, small states are all Republican, Republican rural states in Vermont, and they wanted this is, this is a real way for these smaller states to be protected. And I mean, it wasn't like on earmark, it wasn't just as it was a group, it was the Republican states plus us all acknowledging let's, let's have a good floor of protection for our states. And you know, again, I can't imagine that's going to happen again, anytime soon and what a boon it was for us because we don't have enough population to raise the taxes to do all the things we're getting to do with this money. And that's another way to think about it. It gets to, if we don't expand our own tax base and have more people participating. So great we can do these projects but you know that didn't look like it was going to be possible just based on our own state revenues. And just to be a little bit more explicit about what I think Lola is getting at here. Those small states that are benefiting from these formulas are. Yes, they're small, they're rural. They're also mostly white, right, and it is the larger, more demographically diverse states that are losing out due to this advantage that Vermont and other tiny states have so awkward indeed to hold on to that. Certainly he hasn't faced much opposition at all since I would say 1992, although some might disagree with me about that. When your former boss Jim Douglas challenged him. Before you were involved of course with his campaigns he probably would have won if you've been working for him. But even then, Leahy beat Douglas by nearly 11 points. If Leahy were to choose to run again. Do you think that he would draw any real primary or general election challenge. I'm just kidding. I'm just saying more to say than that. But, but seriously no. Joking aside, I think it's Leahy's decision to make. And I think it's safe to assume that Democrats, however eager they are to represent us in Washington will hold off and not challenge him at a primary. I mean it would be a fool's errand of epic proportions to do it. Similarly, as you know there are usually Republican challengers in the general election but as you said none have come close since Douglas's challenge in in 92 so I think no. Yeah, just to echo this, I mean, most of the, you know, really credible potential contenders have already said, I won't run it's like he is, you know, going to run again. Let's go off with one of the elephants in the room to turn to another of them. Our delegation has more in common with one another than their age. They're also all men, needless to say. One of our audience members Molly Turko of Norwich wrote us the following quote from on is still the only state that has never sent woman to DC. Are Sanders lay here Welch mentoring women to help ensure the next wave of legislators is more diverse. What do you think is the timeline and pathway to a woman being elected as a representative or senator, who in the pipeline has the most potential. And I'll add another question from Patricia of when you ski, who wrote us quote, why has no one with the Vermont media outlet pressed really pressed each member of the congressional delegation on this elephant in the room question. After decades and decades of time in Congress, why haven't they made the decision to finally give out the power prestige and perks they enjoy and give women a realistic chance at beginning elected to Congress to represent Vermont. Because you helped elect the first and to date only woman to serve as governor of Vermont. Why do you think the status has such a poor track record of electing women a statewide federal office and you think that would change. If there is an opening the delegation. Well, you know, there are a few, few on ramps and really in terms of Congress there's none. We just talked about, you know, Senator Leahy's got a lock on the seat and as does Senator Sanders as does Congressman Welch. You know, so, on the other hand, you know, we have about, we're like eighth in the nation and gender equity in our legislature with about 40% of women serving. And we have a very robust pipeline. It isn't a lack of talent or ambition. There are a number of potential women candidates pretty sophisticated about all this but they don't have anywhere to go. And, you know, just to deviate for a minute but it's so pertinent on this whole issue. I don't know if you heard it on reported on the news this weekend. There is a study just out of Tulane University, and the finding was that girls are being socialized to lose their political ambition. The experiment they ran is they asked girls starting at age six to draw a picture of a political leader at work. And when they did that 52% of them drew women. When they asked them again to do it at age 1225% of them drew women. So what happened. The bottom line is you can't be what you cannot see. And this is a, this is a, this is an issue we don't identify enough the need for this change in our own state you can't be what you cannot see. So, you know, again, we do have a group of women representation does matter. True representation, it's not exactly what we've got right now. And it is, you know, it has to do not just with with women we're all in all our organizations steadfast and our determination and our DEI our diversity equity and inclusion work. And we know it's not like enough to play lip service anymore it's not like you can say oh I get it I'm your ally. It's, it's not good enough. And I think it's the same. We have a number of women, I think it's nice to have others speak on their behalf but they're quite able to speak for themselves and I, I hesitate about providing a list because the list sets limitations but I think it's so important that we highlight that we do have this robust pipeline. And I will ask Denise to add other names but you know the obvious ones and we know them, you know, Becca Ballant who's our Senate pro 10 Molly Gray who's our Lieutenant Governor, Jill Kraminsky who's our speaker, Keisha Ram who's a Chittenden County Senator Sue Mineter, Sue Minter who, who ran for governor a while ago and is the executive director of capstone community action, and then people like the former GMP CEO Mayor CEO Mary Powell. So, you know, everyone I just mentioned has got sterling credentials and women's credentials usually have to be the gold standard. So, you know, again and Denise from your perspective, wouldn't you say also that we've got a pretty robust pool. Sure, I like lists, because I think they force us to think outside the box. And I know we'll get into this or I hope we'll get into this a little later but I think that campaigns are interesting enough these days that if a candidate is viable, even if they're not, you know, from a list of people who've been groomed or expected to run they do they can really stand a chance. So that said, you know, I'll just add add a couple of names. What about Agency of Natural Resources Secretary Julie Moore, commerce and community development Secretary Lindsay Curley, Governor Phil Scott has three bright women leaders who are very young on his senior staff, Brittany Wilson, Deputy Chief of Staff Kendall Smith, who is a policy advisor, Rebecca Kelly communications there's jade person Johnson as well. So these are, you know, I don't know about their interest in running I'm not had conversations with them I don't think that that matters at this point I think what really matters is that these are strong, smart, respected women leaders and it's nice to see them in public service, where they can begin to see themselves as potential candidates for office. Well, I wonder if you could tell us what you're observing out there in the world of Vermont politics about who's who is really actually making moves right now to prepare themselves for the possibility of a vacancy we've we've named a number of people who could be real contenders but are you getting the sense that anyone is is really actively campaigning right now or sort of forming proto campaigns to prepare for the possibility there might be a vacancy. I mean I think the first person that people think of is Molly Gray who was acting like a candidate in every way except for declaring the fact that she is a candidate. And I think Becca Ballant obviously also comes to mind, she has said that she would almost certainly run if like he did not. And, and Keshia Rom is often also floated as a possibility I think those are the three that are most likely to run. Jill Krawinsky is also, you know, considered a possible future candidate but it's almost certain that she will not run for Congress, not in, you know, the next cycle. Julia, I'm going to give you the big bucket of cold water to dump on this conversation if you so choose. You've worked a lot of campaigns. You know that it takes quite a bit to run for Congress. Money, train staff, media training, digital savvy, it's not the kind of thing that you can just, you know, just because your name is on a list doesn't mean that you are ready for, you know, a pretty tough challenge. So I wonder if you can kind of describe some of those barriers that any candidate would face of any gender of any background. And I wonder if you think that might whittle down the list of potential candidates. Yeah, I think so I think it will absolutely whittle down the list of potential candidates I, you know, I want to, you know, couch my comments by saying I think that the list that we've discussed today that Liz and Denise brought up is a great starting point. And this is, you know, running for federal office running for Congress, whether it be Senate or, or the house is it is an undertaking of massive proportions, of which I think a lot of Vermont politicals don't have a realistic sense of what that endeavor looks like. It requires an extensive amount of fundraising, but the way that we communicate with voters is shifting really really dramatically and even faster since the pandemic. So modern candidates and modern congressional candidates really need to be well versed in new and innovative ways of voter contact this is not the kind of race that you're going to win on lawn signs and honking waves. This is a this is the type of race that you're going to have to invest real money in digital acquisition and persuasion, you're going to have to have a really well synthesized and shared a brand that is going to allow voters to identify your values, particularly in a crowd to primary. Additionally, you're going to need to find the kind of alliances the national level that will help make sure you're able to fund an endeavor that you know despite being a small state is going to cost is going to cost a lot. There are going to be some real obstacles and I think, you know, advice I would share with really anybody I think we will have many women running for Congress. In the next couple of cycles I think that those folks are going to need will need more donations better political infrastructure more national endorsers and frankly, like a campaign plan that will surpass anything Vermont has seen by leaps and bounds. So what I am saying to everyone who is thinking about it is, it's time to level up your political game and start thinking about how to, how to position yourself now. And how should they contact you to hire you to run their campaign. Denise, I'd love to hear you elaborate on that a little bit and I'll just note that it's been 16 years since Vermont has had an open congressional seat. So that was 2006. That was just a few years into the Iraq war, which was sort of a major issue at the time. And campaigns have changed enormously since that time, as Julia has noted. I wonder if you could tell us how, how else are things different, and what you think someone would need to be prepared for to run. Sure. I mean, everything Julia just said. And, you know, when I think about this, and what Vermonters are going to experience, it's like, hold on, you haven't seen anything yet. I mean, that really is the truth. You know, the one important point I would add to what I thought was really spot on by Julia is that, you know, we are not, you know, campaigns are not determining the likelihood that you'll support a candidate any longer, based on your previous voting record, or whether or not you signed a petition at the Addison County fair and field days. They know what car you drive, they know which credit cards you have, they know where you live, they know where you shop, they know what you like on Facebook, they know the ads you click, they know the Insta posts. I mean, this is scary, the level of information that micro targeting and really smart campaigns are applying. And just like those Facebook ads that get you to buy those shoes that were made out of water bottles. They just stalk you with targeted information. So, really, it's impossible to overstate the savvy that will be applied to these campaigns, and the amount of money that will pour in. You know, consultants, you know, high, highly skilled consultants are $25,000 to $50,000 a month, just to get on board, you know, this is sort of the big time. And with the balance of the Senate at stake, even though this is little old Vermont, this will be a big, big race, because it should be, one would think it should be a safe democratic seat that they won't take anything for granted. So, you know, I would just say gone are the days of the honking waves and the milk bowl. And folks are just sitting behind the computer, manipulating, compelling voters to like a candidate. So one, one little bit counter thinking to that. I've never understood why you can run successfully for governor for what 400 500,000 now which is a lot more, but it's going to cost you 2 million or more to run for the same number of votes in the same. One of the things about this is these campaigns that are driven by Washington are ridiculous. And I've seen it even play itself out here when people running bring in all the Washington consultants and all the Washington everything you have to do in it. They're in this ridiculous situation, and oftentimes with state races, they're out of touch. So, I think yes it'll be formidable. The money thing will be real. But I, I, I, I almost feel the first bit of advice I would give a woman candidate is don't let the Washington consultants drive what you're doing, because in Vermont you still have to get around and do. And I agree. And I agree to that to an absolute extent but you're talking, there's also like a level of specialty that just doesn't exist in terms of what people can do. So I think that there is like absolutely an argument to be made for not centering your campaign around the ideas of Washington consultants by any means. But I will also say that you're going to have a hard time finding a reliable pollster that lives in. That lives in Addison County, you know, way back when I ran a campaign I didn't I reached right into Boston for a top notch political consultant, right wasn't you know, and everybody does that and there's some criticism why didn't you hire all Vermont but yeah so there's a balance I think is the point yeah. There's also you also have to think about the, the, the need for investment in a modern campaign is not just about finding like a digital operation that can track you based on whether or not you bought a Prius. It's also about making sure you're investing in enough people resources that you can have a real organizing team in the state. You can see as many ads as you want on television or on Facebook but the truth is is that relational organizing and talking to your neighbors is still fundamentally the most important way for voters to be reached by these campaigns and a good field staff and a good infrastructure is worth investing in it's expensive. So, sticking with the theme of money for just a moment. Representative Welch, I think is, like I said earlier widely expected to run for the set. If there is an opening he has not said that he's very good at watching that question when you ask him. He has quite a bit of money in the bank from his congressional campaigns, and he would be in a position to raise money really quickly, given his existing connections in Washington. I wonder if you think that that, and I'll direct this to you Julia to start with, do you think that is too much to overcome as a challenger do you think that Peter Welch would have too much of a leg up. He chose to run for vacant Senate seat, or do you think that he might face some real opposition from those who would argue that someone is a woman or someone is younger, or someone is a person of color should be representing Vermont instead in the Senate. I think that anybody that would seek to challenge Congressman Welch in that matchup would have to take some serious serious pause. Not only are there. Does he already have the advantage of being able to create a good pool of fundraising for his campaign, but he's also extraordinarily popular in Vermont. He is the person that is demonstrating right now the kind of values and coalition work that we need in Washington he's doing this with the reconciliation bill the infrastructure package who's one of the few members who met with President Biden yesterday and has been absolutely an extremely popular legislation for a very long time including lowering drug prices. I think as we were also have to evaluate people would also evaluate that smart potential candidates would evaluate what impact they would have not only on the immediate race but also on their future potential where they to undertake a primary that would challenge such a popular congressman. All Democrats are holding such razor thin majorities so bottom line I think that Peter Welch is so popular. He does an exceptional job for Vermonters he is the embodiment of the progressive values that I like to see in Washington and he has the best chance of winning a contested race hands down. Julia I would I would just add to that. He's also the most accessible member of our organization. So, even though he's busy travels to Washington he's still back home, at least some part of most weeks. He regularly attends events when his schedule permits. He's genuinely curious about things that are going on in Vermont you start you see him out and about. He's responsive when there are issues that folks want to raise to him, in a way that our senators simply aren't. And so I think that that's another distinguishing factor for congressman Welch that will play very well whatever he decides to do. He's a he's a testament to his office and I think anyone who is looking to make their way to Washington would be wise to to give it serious pause if it meant going up against congressman Welch. I'll just play a devil's eye for a moment, because I think that much of what you guys have said I would agree with but you know though he has served in Congress for 16 years now 16 years now. He has not faced a real campaign in all of those years. And arguably he's, he has perhaps forgotten how to campaign hard in that time. Do you think that would be a challenge for him or do you think that wouldn't really matter. And I'll put that question to Liz. I don't know you know I, I just began with everything that preceded this, there's so much pent up talent ambition, people who don't see themselves in the picture want to be seen in the picture. I'm not so sure someone wouldn't do it. But all the reasons given why it would be so formidable and so like are you crazy. I, I, I, you know, because we're back to saying that there we, there aren't there, people get a lock on these seats so don't you even dare think about it. And, you know, I'd like to see the reverse happen. I'd like to see. I, I, I'm Mary I'd like to see everybody get into it. I'd like to see Curtis read from my part of the world. A black Vermont or who's done more in the schools and with the police and created there. I'd like to see, I'd like to see them all get in it it would be good for our state. So, there are reasons why, you know, don't even think about it. I'm, you know, again, it's the benefit of being old. I, I, I would encourage people to think about it. What have you got to lose. That's what I always tell candidates, what have you got to lose just that you lose big deal. You went around the state, you got to meet a lot of great people you had wonderful conversations. So, at the end of the day, if you really feel like I just need to put myself out there, I would discourage people from doing it. I just, I just want to be clear my argument is not that people shouldn't think about it. I think I agree with you Liz that it would be absolutely wonderful for us to see new representation in Vermont. The reality of a potential contested primary against Peter really does paint extremely clear picture this is a logistical undertaking with an extraordinarily popular and as Denise said accessible politician who absolutely embodies the values of Vermont so the question is, when is the when does meaning in actually allow you to take advantage of the situation. My point here is that I think is that situation is not going to be to people's advantage doesn't mean folks can't try just realistically and it's going to be very difficult. Lola I'm going to ask you this question first and then I'll go to Denise with the same question it's from hidden Wilson of Newport and Graydon writes quote Governor Phil Scott has previously said that he does not have any interest in running for Congressional office, whether in the Senate or the House. If partly he declines to run next year what is the likelihood that Governor Scott throw his hat in the ring. Well what is your, what's your hot take on that one. I think it's not knowable whether or not he will run, I think he would face enormous pressure to run from National Republicans because he would stand a good chance of winning. I mean, there was one poll from a few months ago that showed him in a. Basically statistical tie and I had to head race with Leahy himself. He is an enormously popular governor, obviously, it would be very hard for him to figure out how to position himself against the argument that electing him would hand senate over to Mitch McConnell I think that that would be. You know, an extraordinarily difficult argument to make in Vermont. But I think he will face enormous pressure to to run, and that if he did obviously he would receive enormous support from from the RNC. The Denise, I want you to answer that question I'll also add a little bit more to the question if you can remember at all. I'll note and I think it was Liz earlier who mentioned that that Vermonters do tend to elect Republican service governor. But the last Republican that Vermonters have elected to Congress was Jim Jeffords in 2000. And by the year 2000 Jim Jeffords wasn't really much of a Republican anymore, and formally left the party a year later. What specific challenges, do you help face when running for federal office in Vermont, in addition to the Mitch McConnell argument that Lola mentions. Sure, so, okay, there are a bunch of parts to this. So, first, you know there isn't a question in my mind that Washington DC couldn't benefit from a leader like Phil Scott. That said, I think it's highly unlikely. And he said as much. He tends to say what he means. Something could change but he's been pretty clear so far. The fact is though a Republican is going to have a really hard time with a congressional or Senate race. You know federal office is very different from leading as a governor governor is an executive leader Vermonters looking for somebody who can run things. When we think about Congress we think about political values and positions and issues like reproductive rights, health care policy judicial appointments, even the question of who are you going to caucus with are you going to caucus with the Republicans would be a pose a huge huge hurdle for a Republican candidate. And you know you mentioned 2006 the last time there was a truly contested race for Congress, we had General Martha Randall challenge then state Senator Peter Welch. This is the first woman to serve as an adjutant general in the country, a moderate, a decorated military leader, yet that campaign. I mean, I remember it very acutely that campaign was not about her record, her resume, her experience, her leadership skills, her qualifications. It was a campaign about the federal, you know the national Republican Party platform, which happens to be at a step with most Vermont voters it's just a fact. And so she really struggled in that campaign, despite, you know, being a really incredibly strong candidate. So, you know, again, running a campaign for Republican for federal office is just not going to be about your experience. It's going to be about the national Republican Party platform and that is a massive hurdle for anyone, including Governor Phil Scott to clear. I'm going to take another question from our audience. Elizabeth Deutsch, hopefully announcing her last name correctly writes quote Joe Crowley had as much power as Peter Welch. As Peter Welch does, excuse me, but he fell to AOC. Why do we act like Lynn cannot be significant, not be a significant, sorry, not be a significant powerful politician if there's a male politician ahead of her in line. Hopefully you caught that question despite all of my fumbling around Julie do you want to take that one on. I mean, I don't think I don't think that's, I don't think that that is the argument quite frankly I think that we are, there are plenty of Vermont women and especially the women that have been named tonight that will absolutely be formidable federal federal elected But comparison between Jogling and and Peter Welch is, is kind of orange as Joe Crowley was a incredible centrist who didn't even live in his district, and whose campaign utilized some incredibly underhanded and lightly racist attacks against Alexandria Ocasio-Portes in her her first race. I don't think that that's a brush that we would paint Congressman Welch with by any means. I'll go with you for another moment Julia, one of our viewers, right named Sam, I don't know where Sam is from, nor what Sam's last name is Sam writes Julia as a progressive, what progressive female candidates do you see as potential front runners. This goes to the bigger question of whether or not a capital P progressive could could run for federal federal office I think that there are some wonderful progressive women leaders in in the state. Selena Colburn is the first one that comes to mind when I think about it. The distinction is a progressive versus Democrat is less important in my mind federal race. If we're talking about the progressive party of Vermont as it exists now I think it would be very hard for them to summon the infrastructure to lift a candidate to federal office. I don't think that our Vermont Democrats have the values in Washington that match where the congressional progressive caucus are where the Democrats on the left star and the differentiations exist here in the state and not necessarily in DC. I think that's important when you're talking about running for federal office I think that distinction support. Additionally, on the spectrum in Congress a progressive and a Democrat would be in the same caucus it's it's just a different parties we have here in the state. And logistically I think a Democratic nominee would have many resources to rely on in a contested race that would not be available to a progressive I also think some of the success we've seen of progressives running for statewide office has been based on the alignment with the Vermont Democratic ticket. And I don't think that you would see that kind of collaboration if you were talking about contested primary that being said. I do think that it's really important for us to have a spectrum of use in these in potential primaries. And as we talk about the future of the federal delegation I would absolutely want to have somebody in discussion who was in the conversation left that's my, my personal political preference. I also wonder whether the conversation might be a little bit different in 2024 if Senator Sanders were to retire at that time not to get too far ahead of ourselves but you know obviously as as probably probably as the most prominent progressive lowercase p progressive in the country. I would imagine that there'd be significant significant movement within Vermont to ensure that he was succeeded by someone equally progressive. But I wonder if maybe that wouldn't be as much of a factor. If he were the first one to retire, but who knows. I'm going to turn to one other reader question for now, David Delaney of Burlington asks quote DC, a potential 10 act come back as plausible. Tim Ash, of course is former Senate President pro tem from Burlington, and he lost in a primary for Lieutenant Governor Molly Gray last year. I just expand on that question a little bit before turning it over to you. There are a number of male politicians in their 40s and 50s who've climbed the political ladder sort of the traditional manner, and who a decade ago, I think would be seen as as pretty Senator Sanders. So ones that jump to my mind at least are people like Attorney General TJ Donovan, former Lieutenant Governor, David Zuckerman, who ran for governor last year, former House Speaker Shat Smith, and Tim Ash. Do you think that they're out of the running due to their demographics, or do you think that we could see some of them playing a role in these races as well. They are going to play a role in this next cycle in terms of the congressional races. I think TJ Donovan is widely seen as a potential conender for the, for the governor's office. But he's indicated he's not interested in Congress, and has also said that he would like to see a woman run. I think that being male precludes any of these men from running and even potentially winning one of these races. But I think it just makes it more awkward, right, because it is a stated value of their party now to see more female representation. So it's, it is a question that they will have to answer and any difficult question to answer. But I don't think that it knocks them out of the running. Julia, most years there is a lot of competition for statewide offices in Vermont. I'm trying to remember when you were running the Vermont Democratic Party you probably went through a couple of leaders when they're when there was not that much going on. Even a vacancy at the top like a US Senate seat or a governorship can really open things up and trigger a whole lot of down ballot races. The last two times this up in Vermont was in 2010 and 2016. Both times there was an open governor seat and there ended up being a whole bunch of pretty bad races. What would that look like in 2020 if there were to be a vacancy. I would anticipate we would see something close to a very polite free for all. I think that that on top of the potential shifts for federal office, there's an open question of what would happen in the governor's race, whether there would be any retirements whether current those who would be a good fit for down ballot races would throw their hat into federal into a federal primary and forego the opportunity to potentially step into statewide office. I can't speculate on who's going to do what but I would say that anybody thinking about a statewide race or down ballot position in Vermont could have a really opportunistic 2022 to get there and you know my universal advice is start getting your ducks in the row, because if it's not a cycle and maybe the next one. And, and I think that folks, folks should be right. I think it's plausible that if there's a vacancy. Next year, you could see the sitting center president pro tem, the sitting with the governor and a number of sitting state legislators running for higher office during the 2022 legislative session. How do you think that would affect legislative business. Well, I think it would be a lot of fun to watch will see obviously a lot of posturing. I think something to keep in mind too about the way that Vermont lights that it has two year biennium right so two year legislative sessions, and quite often the hardest punted to the second year and we're coming up on the second year of our biennium, and that is going to coincide with what could be a really massive election year where we have all of the people, you know, finally vines seats that you know are open for the first time in a long time. And so we're see these two things convert, which is all of the hardest conversations happening at the same time as everyone is running for office. And I think that's going to have profound impacts on what does it does not get through something that has been flagged for me by multiple people is the fact that we have punted a conversation about a pension overhaul to next year. And I wonder what the likeliness that something that difficult makes it through if so many people are trying to be elected. You know, these are the kinds of grand bargains that require making a lot of people angry, and a lot of people in your base angry, potentially. So, it is going to have a profound impact on the legislative session and it could be pretty pretty chaotic. We have time for just a couple more quick questions and then we have to back up. I want to take one more from an audience member Audrey from Hardwick writes quote what is the concern for Phil Scott appointing a replacement if Leahy were to not be able to finish his term, assuming that he runs in 2022. And I guess this is, this is assuming two things, assuming a couple of things that that he does run that that Scott runs for another term, which I don't think is given either. And that both of them win, but certainly it's something that that got quite a bit of attention in after after President Biden was elected, because as I think it was Julia who alluded to earlier fact that center campaign pretty hard to be the Secretary of Labor the US Secretary of Labor. And had he been successful, Governor Scott would have appointed his successor in the Senate at least temporarily and I'll just my, I want to make sure I get my election law right here so correct me if I have this wrong but I believe the way it works is that the Senator and Vermont at least can appoint a temporary replacement until a special election is held. And at that time, I think as soon as that election is over, the person who wins takes the office so this would be really a temporary situation but the Senate is split 5050. So, who wants to tackle that one Denise you want to give that one a whirl. I had a feeling you would say that. I mean, I think it's, it's something to think about I think the likelihood is probably low. I think it is, I mean, I guess it is possible that Senator Leahy would run again and not finish his term for whatever reason. But again, I think it's pretty low. And what will happen is the governor will appoint you know an interim member of the Senate and just thinking about the governor's temperament and his approach to things I think it would be probably unlikely that he would select someone who dramatically opposed Senator Leahy's agenda or or approach to things I just don't see that happening so again I see I see it as a potential disruption, but not a significant one. I think it's funny that that was brought up by one of our listeners, because this is actually one of the rumors and I want to emphasize that it is a rumor. It's highly implausible but what are the rumors floating around in Vermont politics right now is that Leahy may actually run again, but then step down in two years. Once he's, you know, appropriately groomed a successor, and he'll time this to, you know, be in line with the presidential race so that this isn't happening during the midterms. But again, I want to emphasize this is not meaningful information. This is a serious galaxy brain kind of from people who I think are spending a little bit too much time, more time even than we are pondering these questions. I would like to end on this note. I'm going to ask each of you, although I'm not going to ask Lola this question, because Lola is an unbiased reporter with no thoughts or feelings or lived experiences that could possibly affect her work. But I'll ask the other three of you. What do you want to see next year. What would be an ideal turn of events. If I could ask that question. And Denise, I'm going to throw this at you. Sorry. I'm going to throw this at you first. Sorry for the curveball, but what do you think what do you want to see next year. So I mean I think like anyone who cares about the future of our country. You know, some kind of election that reflects the kinds of leaders that we know we need to see in Washington is what I'm looking for and you know I will say that I think we have been well served in so many ways by by our delegation we've talked about a bit of this now. But I will just say maybe as the resident moderate that we need bipartisanship. We need compromise. I know some people think that's a four letter word, but we need it, and we need to be able to make progress and so when I hear people talking about, you know, exasperated by the sort of state of affairs and then they make these really hopefully partisan comments or like okay it's more of the same. So, for me, I'm looking for a leader that will, you know, bridge divides, march towards progress and be willing to take slings from the pundits on cable news to make it happen. What next and then let's. I think, regardless of what decisions are made by either Senator Leahy or Senator Sanders about their future. I'm looking at this from what I am experiencing right now. Certainly, the climate in Washington around really critical and extremely popular funding that is going to be absolutely life saving and life changing for people in this country is is being held hostage under the name of under the name of compromise. So what I want to see happen is I want to make sure that we continue to be served by a delegation that holds very, very fast to our values, and to the values of Vermonters which are values of equity values of justice values of fairness. I think that that we have been served immaculately by our delegation and I am so proud that our tiny little state has managed to forestall so much disaster in Washington just by the folks who are who are representing us I'm so grateful for that. And if, if our delegation decides that it's time that it's time to step down, I am really looking forward to a engaged and enthusiastic primary for, for a lot of women in the state. I'm really looking forward to that. Liz what do you want to see next year. I'll end with the question I started with I started with, when is it someone else's turn. It's someone else's turn. So I would hope to see that we would that would begin to happen in the state. And each of you for joining us. Hello, Julia Denise Liz. I just want a couple of people who've been working behind the scenes to make this happen. Thanks so much for joining us and for sending in really great questions. Please keep reading BT digger, please keep supporting our journalism and everybody's journalism. And we'll see out there on the trail possibly next year, or two years after that, or six years after that. Alright, thanks everyone. Thank you.