 Hello, everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug, streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Before I get started, I need to go through the Disclosures. General disclosure, all Bookmap limited materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk disclosure, trading futures, equities, and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The focus of my presentation and the focus of the options-doug chat channel in Discord is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading and the first is planning, and I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day, as well as the directional bias. And the second step in my process is execution. And I look at real-time order flow in Bookmap and real-time market maker hedging flow in SpotGammaHero to confirm my thesis and for setups. And just to be clear, I will be talking about setups today and those setups can be taken any number of ways with futures, shares of stock, or options. And my timeframe is typically day trading, but what I'm going to talk about today could definitely apply to longer timeframe swing trades as well. Questions and comments are welcome, and I will be watching the options-doug chat channel in Discord and the chat and YouTube for your questions and comments. So again, please feel free to post your questions and comments. All right, let's get started. My agenda for today is, first of all, go over news items for today and the rest of the week, economic data events, and then I'll go through my positional analysis, and then I'll review a few setups from the morning and then we'll talk about the live market. So if anybody has anything that they want me to take a look at when we get to the live market, please let me know. Stocks, I have, you know, I can look at a variety of stocks. So again, just let me know when we get to the live market. All right, let's get started. First of all, news items. Today is a fairly, this week is a fairly light news week with a highlight of Jerome Powell testifying before Congress, today before the House, and tomorrow before the Senate, I believe. So I don't know if there was much of a market reaction. I think his statement was released in advance of his testimony. All right, let's get started. Let's take a look at some charts and I'll go to my positional analysis. And let's go to the S&P 500. This is the ES Futures, excuse me, ES Futures and BookMap. And before, let me clean this chart up just a little bit. I've got some extra lines on here. Okay, that's better. All right, so this is the S&P 500 futures. And before I take a closer look at this chart, I want to take a look at a larger time frame. So let's go to an SPX chart. First of all, I'm going to took a look at this chart yesterday. I'm going to look at it again today. And this is the SPX in a one day chart going back to, going back to the March expiration. And what I want to point out here is this call dominated expiration dynamic. And notice what happens maybe immediately after or shortly after a call dominated expiration. It's essentially a call gamma unwind. And really the market makers position on the gamma curve really shifted to positive, a call dominated expiration around the beginning of March. And that would be right about here. So this is the, again, I talked about this yesterday, call dominated environment. Traders have been buying calls and it was just crazy last week. Record volume for calls in SPX. When traders buy calls, market makers are selling calls, they have to buy futures or stock to hedge their delta exposure. Well, a lot of that call gamma expired on the June expiration last Friday and market makers can unwind or sell their long hedges, futures or stocks. So this is a pretty typical of a call dominated positive gamma environment and just the opposite of what was occurring last week, last year with a put banner rally often after expiration. All right, so that is the daily chart going back to the beginning of March. Now let's take a look at another SPX chart. This is a 30 day one hour chart showing SPX. And this is, let me point out some levels here. First of all, this dash purple line, lower and upper edge the expected move for the week. And as you recall from last week, SPX traded massively above the upper weekly expected move. And today, this week so far is trading very close to the lower weekly expected move. And then the daily expected move, upper and lower shown with a dash blue lines. And SPX has traded below that level today and is now trading above that level. So SPX came close to the lower weekly expected move and traded below the lower daily expected move and now is trading above. Let me point out and those levels come from the options market. If you can calculate it on your own or if you have any trading platform that has an option chain you should be able to get that information. Let me point out some other levels here. This is, I'm using a script from Spot Gamma that is provided to Spot Gamma subscribers for a variety of platforms. Again, we're looking at thinkorswim here. So this first level is the SPX 4000 put wall. That's the strike with Lord's net negative gamma that can be expected to act as support. And that is well out of play for today. And then the next level is the volatility trigger at 4310. And that is Spot Gamma's proprietary gamma flip level. Below that level market makers position on the gamma curve is negative. In a negative gamma environment they have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure. And that tends to enhance volatility. And on the other hand like SPX is trading now above that level market makers position on the gamma curve is positive. In a positive gamma environment they have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure. And that tends to subdue volatility. And note that level did increase from yesterday from 4295 yesterday to 4310 today. And then the next level of interest is the 4400 level. And that is the absolute gamma strike. And that is a strike with the largest absolute gamma. It is a dominating strike in the when you look at absolute gamma for SPX. And that is also Spot Gamma's pivot level. And their bias is bearish below that level and bullish above. So right now SPX is trading below that level. And then the next level of interest is the call wall at 4500. That is a strike with the largest net positive gamma. And that can be expected to act as resistance. Alright so shifts in levels for the S&P 500. For the SPX the only shift was the volatility trigger shifting higher like I mentioned. Let's take a look at one other SPX chart. And this is for today one day one minute showing the levels that are in play. And this is the combo L4 level at 4376. That was noted as support in the Spot Gamma AM founders note. And it's actually has been acting as resistance. And then here's the lower weekly expected move and lower daily expected move. So SPX is trading has traded down somewhere between those two levels. And note one other level of interest. Gamma level is this JP Morgan collar short call strike at 4320. And this has been a very important level at expirations. And this expires at the end of June. So this is the JP Morgan has three different mutual funds that use put spreads, long put spreads. They pay for those put spreads with a short call. And this short call has very often been in play at expirations in recent months. And it can act as a very strong magnet for price. If price moves down, it will act as a very strong magnet as expiration approaches. And as price gets closer to that, the gamma will increase. Gamma is greatest at the money at expiration. So that is a if price continues to move lower, that is a potential target. Let's take a look at book map now. In book map, pretty narrow range today, range day. Let me point out some levels. And I'm going to just point out my column of notes here. This is my C levels, cloud notes. And I have, first of all, spot gamma levels. Again, there's that 4370 76 strike. That's ESPX 4376. I also have spy levels. There's the spy 435 large gamma three level. And that level was support yesterday. And then this afternoon has been acting as support. And then here's the lower weekly expected move, lower daily expected move. This is for ES and it's a little bit different than SPX. So this is calculated for ES. And the move that we saw, the lower daily expected move on the SPX chart, was calculated for SPX. So note those levels had acted as support and also a good price target for short this morning as price moved below the 436 level spy 436 and the SPX 4376 level. And we'll talk more about setups in a few minutes. And in YouTube, Second Wins ask, would it be fair to say that JP Morgan will then do everything to bring it to that price, even if price is above? I'm not sure about that. Their whole purpose for this long put spread and short call is to hedge a long stock portfolio. So they're not, the intention of this is not really for JP Morgan to make money with this hedge. It's just a hedge. And if they're losing money on their hedge, they're making money on their stock portfolio. So I don't know if JP Morgan would have any incentive to move price lower. There's a good chance that if it continues lower, it may, SPX may move lower to that strike without JP Morgan doing anything. I don't know if there's anything they could do to have such a strong influence on price anyway. All right, so that's the S&P 500, the levels on play. Again, a pretty narrow range today. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. And RJ says, great insight. Top Tick was right at the open on Friday, exactly. So this call-dominated dynamic has definitely been in play and based on past history was a pretty clear read. All right, so for the NASDAQ, more of a trend down day, especially in the morning. Let's take a look, first of all, at a QQQ chart. See the levels that are in play. So for QQQ, this is a one-day, one-minute chart. And in the morning, the 366th level was resistance. And note a couple of key gamma levels in play here. There's the 364 volatility trigger. And that did move lower from yesterday. And then here's the put wall at 362. And now, as price has moved up, as acting as support. And that moved up pretty substantially from yesterday. It was 325 yesterday, so it moved up to 362. So more in-range in play today. And now, by the way, I forgot to mention spy shifts and levels. Spy volatility trigger, put wall and call wall all shifted lower. So that's definitely bearish. Again, the volatility trigger, put wall and call wall all shifted lower for spy. For the NASDAQ, the NDX volatility trigger and put wall shifted lower. And for QQQ, the volatility trigger shifted lower, as I mentioned, put wall shifted higher. And the absolute gamma strike shifted lower. So the absolute gamma strike is down at 360, so below price on this chart. All right, so those are the levels that are in play for QQQ. And they're shown on this chart. Again, I have my own cloud notes here. There's the 366 level that was resistance this morning, just after the cash open. Here's the 365 level. And that's in close proximity to the... Actually, I've got that wrong now. The put wall is that, for NDX is at 14,475. So I need to update that note. 15,000 is a gamma level, but it is not the put wall. And note, NQ has been trading since early morning, since around 10 a.m., below the lower daily expected move, and has traded below the lower weekly expected move. And then here's the QQQ 362 put wall that now is acting as support. So much more of a trend day down in the NASDAQ, although it does appear that it is trying to recover. All right, I mentioned the shifts in levels. So overall shifts in levels lower for SPI, NDX, and QQQ all pointed to a bearish thesis for today, as well as the call dominated expiration dynamic continuing to be in play. Let's take a look at the Vana model in just a second. So this is the Vana model for SPX. I like to look at this every day. What this chart is showing is market makers delta notional or delta exposure on the vertical axis, and this is how it changes with changes in price. And that is shown by this light gray curve here. So this is showing as price increases. Market makers delta notional will increase, and they will have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure as price increases. And this purple curve adds implied volatility to the equation. So this is showing how market makers delta notional will change with changes in price and implied volatility. And that change in implied volatility and change in delta with a change in implied volatility is the Vana effect, hence the name of this chart, the Vana model. So what this is showing is as price increases, market makers will have slightly less delta notional to hedge as shown by the delta only curve. On the other hand, as price decreases, they will have substantially more delta notional to hedge. So they'll, as price decreases and implied volatility increases, they will have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure. All right, let's see where SPX is trading right now. Give me just a moment to bring up a watch list. So I've got SPX at around 43.72. So that's right around here. So at 43.72, 43.73. So what this is showing is if price increases, there may be just a little bit of a tailwind as their delta notional decreases and market makers can buy back short hedges. On the other hand, if price continues to decrease down toward that 43.20 strike that I talked about earlier, market makers will need to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure, and that will enhance the movement down. That will add to it, add fuel to it. All right, that is the SPX. And just a note, we'll take a look at this in just a moment, that the gamma notional for SPX is positive. And then on the other hand, for spy, it's negative. So note the shift in the gamma curve, which is oriented for spy, more towards a negative gamma environment, and the same for QQQ. All right, let's take a look at a little bit of data here. What I want to take a look at is this gamma notional and the spot gamma, gamma index for SPX, spy, NDX, and QQQ. What this is showing, market makers position on the gamma curve. So as I mentioned, gamma notional is positive, but less positive than yesterday for SPX. So gamma notional shifted down, but still positive. And for spy, gamma notional is negative, minus 711 million, and this shifted lower or more negative for spy from yesterday. And note for QQQ, it's also negative, but less negative than yesterday. So gamma notional shifted slightly higher, but still negative for QQQ. One other number to take note of is the spot gamma, gamma index, and that's a proprietary measurement of total market gamma for SPX. And that ranges from minus 4 to positive 4. And when the number's positive, that indicates, again, market makers position is positive, and that tends to, their stats show, spot gamma stats show lower volatility environment. The higher the spot gamma, gamma index goes. And that number has been decreasing and last Friday at the options expiration, it was up over 3, which is extremely high. All right, so we know how market makers are positioned on the gamma curve, positive for SPX, and negative for spy, and then slightly negative for QQQ. So again, my thesis for the day was bearish. I was looking for short setups that had to do with the shifts lower in levels as well as the post expiration call dominated dynamic that I've talked about yesterday and today. All right, let's take a look at some setups. So I'm going to start with the S&P 500 hero chart. So I'm going to look at the S&P 500 NASDAQ, and then I've just picked out a few stocks, AMD, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Second Wins ask about AMD. So yes, we will look at AMD. All right, so the S&P 500, let me point out what this chart is showing. This white line is price, SPX price, and the purple line is the hero signal, H-I-R-O, hedging impact real time options. This is showing a combined signal for the S&P 500, SPX, spy, XSP, and ES futures. All into one combined signal showing options, trades, and market maker hedging flow, or hedging activity, hedging pressure, and note this number is very positive, indicating overall net options traders are taking positive delta positions. So I'm going to take a look at the individual components of this, and then we'll open up this chart, expand it, and then take a closer look, and then we'll go back to book map. So first of all, let's take a look at the individual components. SPX, very bullish today, 2.2 billion, positive 2.2 billion, and for spy, also positive 484 million, but a lot closer correlation with price today. So spy trades today have been a good confirmation, and then here's ES futures, and this number's slightly negative, and then here's the combined signal. All right, let's zoom in on this, take a closer look, and I'm going to focus on the morning session. This is typically when I trade. So in the morning, again, I was looking for short setups, and hero was somewhat of a confirmation for short, starting about right here, just around 9.45, and then another confirmation around 10.40, and then really set up a divergence long after that, around 10.50. So let's go take a look. So we're looking for shorts at 9.50 and 10.40, and then a potential long at 10.50. So a short at 10.40, long at 10.50. All right, let's go to book map. I'm going to go back to SAP 500, zoom in on the morning, and the first notable thing here is the, what I interpret as the bearish order flow. Note all these lines in the subchart, continuing to slope down. So this, the pink line here, that's cumulative volume delta, that's sloping down, that's negative or bearish. The light blue line is showing iceberg order, so large traders were selling ES with iceberg orders they used to hide their size, and then finally this yellow line is showing stop orders, so stop orders, sell stop orders, helping to fuel the move lower. So all bearish order flow, I'm going to zoom in just a little bit more here. So we just focus on the short setups. So here we can see looking back at this timeframe that icebergs, stops, CVD, all negative. Definitely looking for shorts. All right, here's the first setup. Note the sweep up to almost to this 43.76 level, and then the shift, first of all, iceberg orders selling on the way up. That was a buy, a little bit of a buy stop run, shown by this green dot here. So buy stop run up to just below the 43.76 level, and then order flow shifts negative. Oops, wrong tool. So you've got the iceberg orders, aggressive sellers coming in, and that was a good short, the first short entry with the targets at the lower daily expected move and lower weekly expected move. All right, the next, remember that, just watching order flow here, that order flow continued to be bearish, and the next short setup was a break out of this consolidation and, again, the same targets. Lower daily, lower weekly expected moves. So here's the long setup. Really starts to play out around 1120. Again, remember, hero is showing that options traders were taking bullish positions, positive delta. So range day playing out in the S&P 500, and now it looks like it has gone back to that 43.76 level, and ES has traded a little bit above that level. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. I'm going to zoom in, and one thing that I always focus on in order flow is this yellow line, stop orders, that is very often a very good directional indicator, showing that sell stops have been fueling the move lower all along. So just looking at this, looking at order flow, here's the resistance at the 366 level, shift in order flow, a lot of aggressive sellers coming in, price breaks below the 365 level, and then the QQQ volatility trigger acts as resistance as price continues lower, making lower highs with what appears to be the ultimate price target today so far at the 15,000 level and Q15,000 and QQQ 361. Let's go take a look at hero, and hero was not, options traders not really in sync with price today for the NASDAQ, at least in the morning session. And this is a combined signal for NDX and QQQ. So in the morning, options trades going one way and price going another, so options trades did not have much influence on the NASDAQ today. Let's just take a look at, go back to thinkorswim. So here it's pretty obvious what is driving NASDAQ lower. Notice the green red for the Magnificent 7, Google, Apple, Microsoft. Looks like Apple and Amazon may be neutral, but Tesla very red, very strong drop today. I think there was actually a downgrade for Tesla today. Some analysts said it's time to take profit, stating the obvious. So anyway, just one look at this and you can tell what is driving NASDAQ. Let's take a look at a couple of stocks. So second one wants to take a look at AMD. So there you go, AMD. We'll zoom in on the morning session. So note the levels are in play. RJ will take a look at Tesla in just a moment. So here's a couple of gamma levels in play. The 120 key gamma strike and the 118 hedgewall. And so the call buyers that were driving prices higher in all these stocks are gone now. All right, so this is showing that traders let's zoom in on this just a little bit more. So in the morning here, traders were selling calls. Note this number is negative, large numbers negative. So that shows they're selling calls and also the blue number is negative showing they're buying puts. So selling calls and buying puts in AMD. Let's go take a look at book map. Here's AMD. And very nice downtrend in AMD, remember 118 is the hedgewall. So nice drop lower in AMD. There are multiple liquidity targets below. All right, the next, let's just go over to Nvidia. So this is pretty typical of Nvidia. The dip buyers always seem to come in, but definitely bearish this morning. Note the, in this drop in the morning, not a green volume dot to be found anywhere. Oops, wrong tool. And this move lower. One pink volume dot after another showing aggressive sellers. Let's go take a look at hero, look at Nvidia. So it looks like the call buyers have come in and prices now moving lower. So the, you know, the dip buyers are here, but in the morning traders were buying puts and selling calls and prices moving lower. We'll zoom out now and see that the call buyers started coming in around 11am, something like that. And the put buyers have slowed down a bit. This line, the slope of this line has not quite leveled off, but it is not as sharp as it was up until about 11, 1130. But the put buyers are still more aggressive than the call buyers. But now when the call buyers price is starting to move higher and then RJ wants to take a look at Tesla. So let's see what traders are doing. Again, I believe there was, there was news for Tesla, I believe a downgrade. Let's take a look. So move lower in Tesla. Let's take a look at the total signal. So overall negative for Tesla. Negative Delta's traders taking negative Delta positions. We'll go take a look at bookbump. There's Nvidia and the dip buyer started to come in about 11. Let me just check something here in a watch list. So Tesla's down a little over 4% today, so not really much for Tesla, but definitely bearish order flow. Again, not many green volume dots, but the dip buyers are starting to come in. Let's take a look at Hero again. So 260 is the key gamma strike. So it looks like that. Around that level, Tesla may have found support. Again, at the 260 key gamma strike. Back to bookbump. So there's the 260 strike, key gamma strike. Note the high liquidity at that level. And Tesla often will overshoot a level, but now it is appearing to be recovering. So Tesla moved about two points lower than the 260 strike. Moved up, moved back down to the 259 as now moving higher. Let's go back to Hero and see what traders are doing. Let's zoom in a bit. Separate outputs and calls. So this is not really, let's change the rolling window. So now this makes it a little bit more clear that about around one o'clock or so, traders started buying calls shown by the rising orange line and also selling puts. So just looking at the last 30 minutes of data here, this is bullish. Traders buying calls. And now Tesla's moving up above the 260 key gamma strike. All right, so great, great short set up in the morning. And then Tesla is trying to recover. Let's go back to total. All right, if anybody else has any other stocks you want me to take a look at, let me know. Otherwise we'll go to the broad market. Let's go to the S&P 500. And this total signal continues to be quite bullish. And now it looks like the S&P 500 may be trading at the high of the cash session. We'll go take a look at book map. Yeah, now it has broken above the, that SPI 436 level as well as the SPX 43.76 level. Found support at the SPI 435 level that was support yesterday. So now it looks like some larger traders are coming in to buy some of the iceberg orders here. Note the move higher in the light blue line. Also some buy stop orders fueling the move higher. So let's see where the S&P 500 could be hitting. And it looks like the next target above is the SPI 437 level. And that is the volatility trigger for SPI. And remember we saw that SPI was trading in a negative gamut. So we're not going to make your position on the gamut curve. SPI was negative at the beginning of the day. And Sampan asks, do you have SPOT Gamma Pro or the SPOT Gamma Alpha subscription? And I have Alpha. And Alpha includes hero. So Alpha includes all the features of SPOT Gamma including hero. Alright, so the way I trade I would be looking for right now the ES is between levels. So I like to trade levels. So I would look for a pullback down to the 4376 level or a move higher to the 437 level and see how price reacted see what options traders were doing at one of those two levels. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. So now NASDAQ is above the lower daily expected move. Cumulative volume delta definitely positive. But stops and icebergs still look bearish to me. I'm looking at the subchart at the lines in the subchart. And remember 364 is the QQQ volatility trigger. And now NASDAQ is trying to move above that level. So both the SOB500 and NASDAQ are NASDAQ almost an hour into an up move. Let's see what options traders are doing at NASDAQ. So we know they're still bullish in the SOB500. Go to NASDAQ. Let's zoom in on this. Notice on this chart that the hero signal is pretty flat. And this is a cumulative signal for the entire day. And what I want to do is take a look at a shorter time frame. So I'm going to go just to the 30-day 30-minute rolling window period and it's still pretty flat. So options traders are still not having a lot of influence on price action. So right now in the last 30 minutes they are buyers of puts and they're selling calls but just not again a lot of influence on price action. Let's go back and take a look at NASDAQ. Zoom in a bit. So for NASDAQ, if I was looking for short based on what options traders are doing I would definitely wait for a lower high. So right now NASDAQ appears to be making lower lows and maybe has found resistance at the 364 level although order flow still looks positive. Looks like there are still some aggressive buyers here. If I was looking for short in NASDAQ I would wait for a lower high to confirm a move lower. So maybe a move down below the lower daily expected move. Let's look for targets above. So targets above the next is the NQ 15,150 and then the QQQ 365 level. Let's check on the S&P 500. So S&P 500 still slowly making its way up to the 437 volatility trigger and for the S&P 500 the order flow looks more bullish to me. Rising cumulative volume delta my stop orders although negative for the day as well as CVD they are rising now. Note the buy stop orders helping to fuel the move higher. Alright my time is up for the S&P 500 it looks like the spy 437 level may be inevitable although there are some sellers here at the 4429 and the 4430 level shown by the heat map there. So it looks like they're front running the 437 level. We'll just darken that up just a bit. Some sellers in there front running. Alright so Sam Pan asked what is the reason for the S&P 500 to cross the volatility trigger level in the middle of the day. It's just another level that I mean any reason. So we see now that I've just talked about the dynamics for price to increase buy stop orders aggressive buyers iceberg orders CVD has been rising. Large traders in there buying with iceberg orders so I mean the usual suspects for driving price higher are in here at play. So this is a zero for the S&P 500 there's NASDAQ let's go to the S&P 500 and again remember we're looking at a 30 minute rolling window period so options traders taking positive delta positions and there they have gone through the front run the traders front running that 437 level my stop orders and as expected then at least short term that level acts as resistance and pretty amazing clarity you get with book map here and when you have the correct levels and it looks like the S&P 500 traded up to that level to the tick almost I've got it at 44, 30, 50 and it looks like that's exactly where so far the ES reverse lower stop run up through the liquidity that was front running that level and price traded lower all right that's a good way to end the day I want to thank you everyone for watching thanks for your questions and comments remember Jerome Powell will testify before the senate tomorrow at 10 a.m. again so we'll talk about that tomorrow afternoon so everyone thanks again thanks for watching thanks for your questions and comments and I will see you tomorrow bye