 and welcome to Figments, the power of imagination. I hope you had a great Thanksgiving. I wanna wish a happy Hanukkah to our viewers and say that I had a great Thanksgiving with my family and we have a lot to be thankful for. That said, today's topic is kind of a heavy one but it's worth talking about because we can't just wish problems in the world away and hopefully this one will be a topic that our viewers especially those in Hawaii but elsewhere as well find thought provoking and maybe inspiring to take some action and I'll give some examples of that in a bit because today we're going to talk about imagining Hawaii during a China-Taiwan conflict and a little more elaborations coming but first I have to introduce my guest and great friend Colonel retired US Air Force Ed Hawkins Aloha Ed. Aloha, Peg. It's great to have you here folks. Ed is a remarkable guy. You've got people are glass half full, glass half empty. Ed's a very balanced, the glass is half full and half empty sort of a guy. And I see that on the golf course where he suggested this topic. He was a career Air Force intelligence analyst attended the Air Force Academy coming from his roots as an adopted son of a military family there on the left. You haven't changed much. Ed, I look at that picture. Still that dinky guy, huh? You know, interesting thing. Alejandro saw that and said, he looks like your dad and you're patient. I'm not kidding. It is also to bring a picture of my dad. There are some common characteristics there but you then attended the Air Force Academy and graduated, made it all the way to Colonel retiring from AP CSS, one of our favorite places. I think we both agree. Yeah. And had a really remarkable career. He also studied postgraduate education at Harvard University. I'd like to point out that those are two institutions that would not have admitted me and didn't the Air Force Academy turn me down but I have spoken in both of them. So I guess after the fact. Better than me. Really into it. After the Air Force, you serve the community as the president of the Japanese America Society, Hawaii for cheese, nine years, something like that, right? Seven, yeah. Seven, okay. Probably seemed like nine at times and like three at others. And then you joined city government, not politics. I don't think of you as a very political guy. You have your opinions but you work for Mayor Kirk Caldwell as executive director of economic development. And in that role, that had kind of a diplomatic piece because you worked the sister city program. And I think you got a picture of you here with the mayor of Tokyo and the mayor of Honolulu. Then you also worked with cities in Taiwan and China which had to be an interesting basis for comparison. Not the topic for today, maybe a future episode but you're an active guy. I got to share that with the viewers. You're a voter, a biker, and of course a golfer and a really good golfer, probably the best golfer in our weekly group, The Gaggle. Here's, here's, here's Lydia, here's Lydia. Asking for your autograph, as I understand it. Hey, Ed, why don't you tell me about your hole in one? What hole was that? Oh, that's right. I have a hole in one and you don't. You're a much better golfer but I have a hole in one this year and you don't. Number two, wasn't it? Yeah, it was number two. February 6th, 179 yards, blah, blah, blah. You've heard me tell the story many times. All to say, Ed is a very well-rounded, complete human being, very thoughtful. And he's just the guy to help me imagine the unimaginable. And that's what we're kind of doing today is looking at what it would mean for Hawaii if China took military action against Taiwan. And we don't have to presume that there would or would not be a US defensive response actually committing forces to such a fight because either way, the effects are going to be profound. So let's start with our assumptions and just say, it is possible, the words of Xi Jinping, no one should underestimate the Chinese people's staunch determination, firm will and strong ability to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity. And for him and for the Chinese Communist Party, that means a reunification of Taiwan. Not the issue to be debated, but it is possible. And our acknowledgement of the possibility should inspire us to think about what would happen and be better prepared for it and participate not just in the preparation, but the political process that determines the policies our nation follows. So buckle your seatbelts folks and let's talk about a tough topic. Ed, since it's possible, imagine if you will that China invades with relatively short notice Taiwan. We'll just use the invasion as the nature of the military action. What happens first? Are we under a threat? Are we gonna get attacked? Is our first warning gonna be a missile strike in Honolulu? Yeah, well, as you pointed out, we have to think about the possibilities from direct attack to something less than that, which will impact us. But if there is, and I guess we can leave it up to experts to talk about exactly how that would happen. But there is a possibility. It could be a fit to come play. It's not too far away. The Chinese have built up their military. They have a huge short range and medium range missile capability, thousands that they could overwhelm, command and control, air bases, logistics ports. They could have saboteurs and agents already in place. There are things that they could do that we might be faced with a fatal complaint. I hope that doesn't happen, but the possibility is there. That Chinese are significant, yeah. I agree. And our purpose, as we talked about before the show, is not to scare folks. It's to just think about this and recognize the importance, especially of deterrence. And in my mind, I'm most concerned about the advances in Chinese missile and nuclear weapon capability. They're growing their nuclear arsenal from 200-ish. And here in Hawaii, the odds of a direct attack is not, I don't think it's high, that even if there was a conflict, extension of conflict to the rest of the United States, of course, Guam is part of the United States. And that's very close. And you might talk about that later. We have, as you know, bases in Japan. We have relationships with Philippines, with Australia. So they are within, in Korea. So they're within range or areas that could be involved in some sort of a conflict. But direct attack on Hawaii, I think most experts would agree that it's unlikely, but miscalculations, those things can happen. We have a Indo-Pacific command headquarters here, the overall commander of the region, plus all the military services are headquartered here. We don't have significant forces here, but as you know, this is the air bridge for any kind of forces moving forward into East Asia and the Indo-Pacific region. We have significant facilities for ship outfitting, repair, you know, all those things. So it's possible. It is very possible. I think that's- And I don't think those- Yeah, I don't think there's anything about that that means we're asking for it. Are those facilities are placed here because of where the islands are placed and it makes strategic sense. To me, when I look at the Chinese developments, and I can't read their minds or deduce their intent, but if I had to guess, because I can do that, I'd guess that what is most likely is that they would use that threat of attack as leverage to have the freedom to do what they choose to do with regard to Taiwan. I think in either case, whether we're deterring military adventurism against Taiwan or deterring attack on Hawaii, the key is preparation. And you know, we went through that January 2018 missile attack, false alarm. I'm sure you remember it. And one of the things that came out of that was that the state stopped testing the missile warning or attack warning part of the siren test that's the first Monday, right? Of every month at 4.45. I know when it happens, it'll remind me every month. And frankly, I think that was a mistake. The reason we had that error as bad as it was, as scary as it was for everybody was because the state is the only one in the union that was taking the potential of attack seriously. Now we're closer than most, but the state was doing a good thing. They didn't do it well that day, but that doesn't, to me, mean you should stop. What are your thoughts on that? Well, yeah, again, alarmist, you know, you don't want to be alarmist. And I think with plenty of preparation and telling the public about how this is to be done, the other part is the number of tourists. Of course, during that time, we weren't in the band of external numbers were very high. And I doubt that very many understood, you know, what the significance of a test was. So there were a lot of misunderstandings. I think preparation and communicating to the public before re-initiating, I think that would be appropriate. Yeah, well, I'd like to see the next whomever. I'd like to see somebody take that step again in a thoughtful, non-provocative, non-frightening way. Just say, hey, we're protecting our citizens. That's our job. A question that came in and the preparation for this show is does the state, and it was regarding the January 2018 false alarm, does this, since you worked in city government and in the military here, does the state even talk to the federal military? Are there, is there coordination between the services? I know the answers, but you're the guest, so I'll let you. Well, there is the Department of Hawaii State Department of Defense, General Harrow, you know, runs an office. And I know during the pandemic, for example, you know, there were very close coordination with the military headquarters. On the city side, the mayor does meet with commanders of all the services that discuss mutual issues. So there's a healthy level of communication, channels that are open and they do make use of that often. Yeah, I think they probably do that better in Hawaii than anywhere else I've been stationed. Now, some of that is circumstances that are proximity to potential threats, but also the fact that we have the higher headquarters in all of the military services, Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, Space Force, we have a Space Force presence and of course the Coast Guard, not part of the Department of Defense, but they're all here and that makes it easy. We have an actively engaged community organizations like the Chamber of Commerce's Military Affairs Council, all enhance communication. My answer to that question, just to reinforce yours is yes, they do communicate. Is there room for improvement? Yes, and should they be considering this possible impact of a China-Taiwan conflict? Absolutely, they probably are. They certainly should. Plus remember that we do have a significant diplomatic core, the Council's general, the big seven that I call, you know, Korea, Japan, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand, Marshall Islands, and of course Taipei Economic and Culture Office, which is like a de facto conflict. Yeah, as I was getting ready to come on the air, I was thinking I need to get somebody from the consulate or to talk about the unique diplomatic presence in Hawaii. And that could have impact on our role with the potential non-combat and evacuation operation for not just US citizens who come to that in a bit, but first let's talk about another area and you alluded to it earlier, where we could see some disruption if this worst case were to happen. And that's cyber attack. Now, we might just think of a cyber attack affecting the military headquarters. They hack their classified email or disrupt the services. It could have a broader effect on the community than that, couldn't it? Yeah, I think so. If there is any kind of potential for a conflict or emergency, I think we can expect the enemy, the adversary, the Chinese, to take action. Not the enemy now, but if they, yeah. In that area, you know. And it would be military infrastructure, you know, there's significant infrastructure here that serves both the military and the civilian side, you know, we can expect, I think, maybe not a direct heart attack on the targets here, but there could be agents and provocateurs that are here, you know, acting. And they may be trying to affect some of the logistics and the communications systems that support all of our daily lives. So I think it's a possibility and it could touch daily life in an insidious way. You might see the misinformation campaigns as we've seen from foreign operatives in the past, trying to foment panic or some other reaction that they think would serve their purposes. A broader disruption, if you like banking and using your debit card or the ATM or pump and gas, it might be a problem because all of those services could be disrupted. And there's even a potential for significant disruption of the power grid. Why am I saying that? Not to scare you folks, this would be really bad and it's worst case, but I think it re-emphasizes the need to provide an effective deterrence to cooperate with China when we can and compete with them when we must and more on recommended ways to do that. Here's a really tough one. You know, when the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor on December 7th, 1941, neither you nor I were on active duty yet, just to keep that clear with the audience, the islands were placed within ours under martial law and stayed under martial law until October, 1944. And folks, if you think that COVID restrictions are on us, you ain't seen nothing yet compared to martial law. Ed, do you think Hawaii would be under martial law if there was a conflict on Taiwan? Well, like I said previously, the chances of a direct attack here. But even if there weren't a direct attack, if there were significant agents, provocateurs, there was disruption and just a need to maintain order. Do you think that's an option in 2021? It's very different. I'm not sure to the extent of imposing martial law but something that's restrictive. And I think if there is quite a bit of activity, you know, known activity in Hawaii or potential for activity, but I think that there will be a cause for concern. And that brings in, I think, the other area that we had talked about, you know, societal impact. Yeah, let's save that broad societal impact and your personal view for a little later because I want to really get in there. But the martial law, I'm hoping that it doesn't happen but something like that, maybe heightened security, it's not beyond the realm of possibility, I said. All the more reason for the state, city and federal governments to communicate and prepare together so they avoid that option because in martial law, for example, the state had a military governor for that almost three year period and minor offenses to major offenses were tried by a military court that consisted of a single judge usually without legal representation. This is an example of martial law and there was an over 90% conviction rate. It's not somewhere we want to go, I agree Ed. But you have to have another means to coordinate between state, local and federal authorities to maintain the order and address the real threats that are out there. I mentioned non-combatant evacuation operations. This is something you brought up when we talked on the golf course and it's something that you and I, having served overseas a lot, we both served in the Middle East and Asia extensively and everywhere you go, whether it's a natural disaster or war, we have a plan to get the non-combatants out. Do you think we'd have to do any non-combatant evacuation operations from Taiwan in the event of this contingency? I would say almost certainly and one form or another, it could be a small scale, it could be large scale. It depends on what kind of conflict it is, but it will be chaotic and we saw, although in Afghanistan, but planning goes out the first day. As you know, in the military, you can have any great plan, but... No plan survives first contact. No plan survives first day, so it could be chaotic. But I would say, you mentioned the Americans there, the other foreign nationals. 13,000 Americans, citizens, maybe many more dual citizens. There are also government people, Taiwan government people. There could be businessmen from both sides. There could be scholars and others that may not want to stay there and they may want to flee in their families. There is I think a large number that needs to be considered. I'm sure that Indo-Pacific command and the others are planning for this, but no plan is gonna survive the first day and it could get pretty chaotic. And the decision would have to be made early for it to have half a chance of success. And the recipients of that, you know? Where do they go? Where do they go? And likely, Hawaii would be one of the destinations you know, we've had that in the past. It could be other countries nearby, Guam, US territory, possibly. There may be countries that may not want to accept non-combatant evacuation operations because of their relationship with China. They may not want to jeopardize their relationship. You know, it'll be a national decision. So you can't guarantee that if there's a Neo that countries like Korea, Japan, I hope they do, but the Philippines and the others may not accept them. And they have their own stakes, as you know, and with 13,000, or with 16,000 Japanese and about 90,000 from Thailand and the Philippines are both treaty allies and half a million from Indonesia and Vietnam where we have important relationships. It could be chaotic and three things we need to do. One, learn lessons from Vietnam and that evacuation of South Vietnam, the more recent example in Afghanistan. And third, have the ability to make a quick early decision. Now, how do we integrate them? Do we sell them here or is it just a waypoint for going further? I don't know. Those are the things that I have to talk about. But if you live here in Hawaii and you don't have any interest in the military, it's still gonna impact you because you're going to see a large influx. And of course, our state population isn't that big and there'll already be plenty of demands on our infrastructure and supply lines. Now, let's take a quick break, if I may, and talk about figments. Henriela, coming up a week from today and that will be on December 10th. I'm not sure that dates, right? Whatever it is, next Monday. They gotta type the wrong date in there. But I don't have a topic yet, folks. And I trust that the news headlines will provide me a topic because they always do. So please join me. That's my non-vitriolic, non-political approach to current events. And I look forward to seeing you 10 o'clock Hawaii Standard Time right here on Think Tech Hawaii. Okay, back to our topic at hand. What would conflict between China and Taiwan mean for the people of Hawaii? And more broadly, the people of the United States. You were the executive director for economic development. So you know a lot more about economy than I do. Tell me what you think would be the economic impact and maybe compare to the economic impact of COVID. Bigger, smaller, who knows? Different, over to you. Well, things have changed. If we're back in 2019, I think the scale would be different. But most certainly tourism will take a hit. I don't think people would wanna come to Hawaii if there is a pending conflict or a conflict going on. And may even be restriction. Yes, so that's, we've seen that at the beginning of COVID. We may return to something similar to that. Businesses will be hit hard, definitely. I think the other part that we should be concerned about is the trade with China. It's a huge, huge economic activity. I was during, you mentioned I was with the mayor's office and I had a chance to go to China a couple of times and Taiwan once. But I visited a place south of Beijing called Zhejiang, which is one of their claims to fame is the home of the Shaolin Kung Fu warriors. So we were bringing them over for the Honolulu Festival and we had it all in place before COVID hit. We hope to get them back again. But one of the things I learned at Zhejiang region, they manufacture 70% of all the iPhones sold to the world. So those kinds of impacts overall to the United States and to the world in general will happen. And that's just one area. And looking at Hawaii itself, although the trade goods traded between Hawaii and China is about 10% of the annual product, gross annual product. So it's not hugely, it's not a very high percentage but still significant impact. And the impact will hit hardest I think on the Chinese and American community that have business and familial relationships with mainland. And it's not Taiwan as much as the mainland, especially the coastal provinces where their families, their ancestors came from. So it's gonna hit them quite hard. So I think- I would just go ahead. So it's really like a double whammy, that overall economy and then the specific Chinese American community and the businesses that they have with China. And the housing market, a lot of Chinese investment of Hawaii housing market, all of those are concerns. But one thing that concerns you and I who both love Hawaii and what is special about Hawaii and makes us the aloha state is the fact on the community and the friction, potential friction, bias, discrimination, reprisal against Chinese or Chinese American communities as an Asian American. How do you look at that? Does that make you think and feel? Well, that's one of the ugly parts of America, isn't it? You know, in Hawaii, we're very fortunate. You and I have been around the world and I don't think there's anywhere else in the world that people get along, you know, different cultures get along so well as here. We're very fortunate. But, you know, looking back into history, there is a history of this discrimination rising up, the, what we've misdirected patriotism that you mentioned. Yeah, misdirected patriotism. People think that by going after people that look dissimilar or like, I'm sorry, similar to the enemy or the adversary is a sign of patriotism and we've seen where that leads. So I think we need to be very conscious of that. And one of the things that I think that state and city need to do is to reassure our Chinese American community, you know, they're citizens, they're patriotic that recriminations against them will not be tolerated and just be conscious of that. Yeah, I was at a ceremony reception for the new USS Daniel Kate Inouye ship, naval ship that's being commissioned on the 8th of December in home ported Pearl Harbor. And the line that sticks with me is the Japanese Americans had to fight to get the opportunity to fight for a country because they were classified as enemy aliens for sea classification. So well, with all that cheery stuff, we're almost out of time. So I have a portion, as you know, Ed, what would Fig do? I'd like to kind of bounce this off you too, what would Fig and Ed do? The first thing I'd do is have discussions that recognize that in the event of such a conflict we need to retain who we are, not just as Americans but as residents of the Aloha Street. Another thing in my mind is that we have to realize that giving in to China is not an option, only the US leading with allies and partners can compel adherence to international norms and the rule of law. And there's a dangerous rising tide of autocracy in the world, we can't fuel that or it will change our lives in more ways than we've discussed today. So now we've got to diversify Chinese challenges militarily from my background. I know we have continued to enhance missile defense characteristic, any other quick hits of what our viewers should think and do in response to our not so cheerful post Thanksgiving discussion? Well, to be very understanding, you know and not be alarmed, but at the same time be prepared and think about the contributions of the Asians and the Chinese Americans that are here and make sure that we take care of them if there's any kind of conflict or any kind of emergency rises. The other thing I would like to just point out is when you talked about the communication, you know, that exists between the military, the city and state governments, businesses and so forth. We have a very good, I think open dialogue and one of the other strengths here, as I mentioned is the diplomatic core and there's smart people there, their professional diplomats, you know they have straight lines right to the leadership of their countries and these people should be included in any kind of dialogue. And in addition to the formal diplomatic representatives, we have numerous honorary councils who to various degrees do in fact act on behalf of countries that don't have a consulate here or even an embassy and they play an important role and note to self when I go to the council or core business meeting, tomorrow I've got to think about who I might get on figments to talk about the unique work. Good point. Of the regular and honorary councils. So it could happen folks, we shouldn't build our lives around it, but we ought to think about it because the better prepared we are as a community and as a country, the less likely such a circumstance will be and that's the purpose of this discussion. So thanks for joining us for that. I'd like to thank Think Tech Hawaii who allows me to put on both figments the power of imagination and figments on reality and remember they're a 5013C or something like that nonprofit corporation and they need your support and it's a good time to donate because I'm very thankful for the fact that they enable a citizen journalist to express ourselves. Colonel Ed Hawkins, US Air Force retired. Thanks so much brother. I'll see you on the golf course. Thanks again, thanks always valuable. Appreciate it. Enjoy. Aloha.