 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got some pretty big divisional games on tap week number 14 across the NFL And I'll take a look at some of those games and outline where my numbers are seeing value across this week at Fandall sports book 4 NFL week 14 We're talking about the Jets and bills We got some lions and Viking slots will break down those and take my first look at NFL week 14 And let you know which bets I'm locking and now to open up the week And also take a look back at what went down on the show this past week This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Flying solo for today to take my first look at NFL week number 14 But a lot of good stuff coming on later on this week We've got dr. Ed Fang on tomorrow talk about the World Cup will break down what his numbers are saying about the next round We have a couple of days off in the World Cup on what beginning on Wednesday So we'll take a look at the upcoming matches. Let you know what Ed is betting there Ryan Williams back with us on Thursday talk NFL week 14 And then JJ Zach recently with us later on this week to talk some player props So fun week on tap will start things off with I think hopefully some fun bets for week 14 We'll get to those in just one second But first to get all those shows as they go live a reminder Please make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts because the early you listen The early you can get these bets before they move markets do move for sure or something We can't account for always when we're recording these podcasts as we are not live So I'd recommend Subscribing to get those as they go up and to make sure you're getting the best value on these numbers And also check out the Fandall YouTube page as all these shows are posted up there as well Looking to get more out of the NFL this season Well now's the perfect time to download Fandall America's number one sportsbook because new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's free that's back if your first bet doesn't win just download the Fandall sportsbook app It's safe secure and super easy to use then you can bet on everything from money lines to touchdown scores to over under yards Plus Fandall even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game parlay So don't miss the chance to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 of free bets when you join Fandall Make every moment more with Fandall an official sports betting partner of the NFL must be 21 plus in select states first online Real money wager only refund issued is non withdrawal of free bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions applies see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1-800-GAML or was the Fandall comm slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step or tax and acceptify 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or was it ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-809 with it in Kansas 1-805-2-2-4 700 It's also for Wyoming in Kansas KS gambling help calm in Louisiana 1-877-770 stop in Maryland MD gambling help dot org in New York 1-877-8 hope and wire text open Y in West Virginia 1-800 gambler dot net Let's take a now and take a look at where my numbers are seeing value across week 14 in the NFL I've got four bets. I'm gonna place early on this week and then one I'm monitoring to see if I can bet it later on one of those bets is going Against the early market another one is buying into it and the one that's buying into the market and where it's moved so far And unfortunately not getting the best number I could have gotten but I like the Lions at minus one and a half Against the Vikings my old model the traditional model which did back test better in week 13 than the the new one did That one says the Lions should be favored by about four points in this game And the reason it's so high in the Lions is because that model cares a lot about passing efficiency And the Lions have been among the most efficient passing offenses in the league even since TJ Hawkins and left this team I think the Vikings will be able to stop the run you've been very good at that But the Lions have moved the ball effectively through the air for most of the year including in their first meeting against the Vikings They were very good there, but they Collapsed on late downs that was an issue for the Lions earlier on this year But they have been very good there recently the Lions have exceeded expectations on late downs based on a matchup for six consecutive games They're now up to the 73rd percentile in late down success rates And they've taken what was a weakness in that first matchup and turned it into a strength of late for them They've got the receiver healthy DJ shark Josh Reynolds fully ramped up James Williams may be in the mix more this week The offensive line still not fully healthy But it is a bit better than it was This is the only bet I'm walking in right now where my new model disagrees with the bet that I'm placing It says it should be the Lions by about a point here But I'm in honestly I'll take the Lions at minus one and a half here Even if it's not as good of a number as I could have gotten yesterday where it was a push or minus one Even at minus one and a half I still think the Lions are a value here and I would not be shocked this one keeps on moving Even if the Lions minus one and a half is the right side to be on here the bet that's going against the where the market has moved recently is Seattle minus three and a half against the Panthers this one has moved quite a bit since yesterday I think it was five and a half at 1.6 and a half. It has rebounded a bit It slowed down with I think we've hit an inflection point where the market that tells me We're probably not gonna get to three here. So I will take this now and go Seattle minus three and a half My traditional model loves to see Hawks has in favor by 8.9 points here The newer one has it a bit more moderate at 6.4. So either way, I'm getting pretty good value here But I do understand why the market has moved this direction Sam Darnold played better against the Broncos once you adjust for a matchup than any quarterback has played for the Panthers So far this year that's encouraging and it should give some enthusiasm for this offense and Seattle's defense stakes I still think they're pretty bad. I think Carolina will be able to run the ball on them here But Seattle's offense can shred to their 12th in my offensive power rankings right now before making injury adjustments for other teams so my question here is if Seattle builds a lead which they very well could do with this offense Can Carolina claw their way back? Maybe it Darnold plays as well as he did against Denver, but I'm not gonna buy in based on a one-game sample there I think Seattle is pretty easily the better team here. Gino very good against the Rams I know that game was very close the Rams did cover but Gino played very well in that game So with the market having hit an inflection point where I think we'll probably not get three I am good get good at betting the three and a half right now and riding with Seattle here So Seattle minus three and a half to play for me in that one despite the movement in Carolina's favor If you've listened the past couple of weeks past month and a half or so You probably won't be shocked by the next bet that I've gotten that's the jets plus nine and a half against the bills my numbers have been high in the jets all year and That's had mixed results. I was on them for that Patriots game where the Patriots have the punt return touchdown. Whoops So that wasn't great. I was on them last week to against the Vikings now Obviously, they didn't they didn't win there, but I think they should have won that game They just didn't convert inside the red zone. They played pretty well. They kept her cousins in check So I'm not going to go that aggressive here I'm not taking the money line But my new model which has the bills ranked first my power rankings Says the spread should be five point nine against nine and a half right now. The other model says seven point four So even on the less aggressive model, it says the jets are undervalued by two point one points here That's without any but for Mike white I'm skeptical that white will be able to have sustained success given that he was a third stringer entry in the year We saw last year Mike white played a couple good games and then collapse actually gets the same defense But he was Okay for a couple games there as well. So I have the Offense I You know, I don't think that they'll improve with Mike white relative to what they were But the baseline is still kind of high despite the quarterback play They face a lot of really tough defense they get one here as well But no von Miller should help a bit I actually the jets lowered from their baseline a bit because of the breeze haul injury because that's hurt their their ground game So even without exceeding expectation even without bumping the jets projected passing efficiency or overall offensive efficiency I'm still showing value here, and it's possible. They do get better under Mike white My number said the jets as the best defense in football They got good personnel. So I don't mind being high in them there and now I could see the bills Blowing out the jets. I'm not sure if Mike white has it in him to concoct a huge comeback against his defense That's within the range of outcomes, but having nine and a half as the median expectation here That's richer than I'm willing to go So I will take the jets plus nine and a half here despite the fact that I respect the bills a lot My numbers respect the bills a lot. I think that again a blowout is fully possible I think the jets are under value to nine and a half the final bet I want to lock in right now in the lone money line for right now Is the Jags a plus one sixty six against the Titans? I do like the Titans. I think they're a good football team I think their defense is a bit overrated though, and it's led to a bit too much enthusiasm around them at times So far this year I think that was the case last week against the Eagles where they got that down from six and a half to four and a half I thought that was a little bit Over-enthusiastic and I think the market is over enthusiastic here as well In both of my models the traditional one and the the newer one the Jags and Titans pretty much right by each other than the power rankings and That's primarily due to the Jags offense They are a very good unit even if they didn't play like it this past week against Detroit They're in the 64th percentile or higher in early down passing early down overall efficiency and Offensive power rating for me They're not below average in any unit any mark on the offensive side of the football Tennessee's passing offense very good on early downs, but they don't trust it as much as they should they're leaning on a more inefficient rushing offense and Stopping the rush is the one thing the Jags defense can do pretty well if the Titans Realize that and decide to air it out. They're likely doing so without trail on Berks this week scary concussion this past week So I don't have Berks ruled out my model yet, but I'm assuming that he will be if I take him out I'll like the Jags even more. So I like the Jags offense overall. I think their defense Specifically matches up well with the Titans. That's enough for me to take the money line at plus 166 I've got the Jags win odds at 43 percent. That's higher than the 38 percent implied at this number My numbers also think the over here is interesting I haven't done that yet because if Berks gets ruled out that could come down And also I think there's a shot we get to 41 and a half year 42 a semi key number in the NFL So I want to get it down to 41 if I can 41 and a half. I should say I think it's down to 41 and a half. I'll pull the trigger on that so Over here in play, but definitely taking the Jags money line at plus 166 So to recap spots from my numbers see value for this week, and I'm betting it I like the Lions at minus one and a half. I like the Seahawks and minus three and a half I like the Jets plus nine and a half and then I do like the Jags money line at plus 166 against the Titans in that situation And I'm likely to add the total for the Jags Titans But want to see if I can get that to 41 and a half before doing so wind speeds around seven miles per hour right now in Nashville For Sunday some rain in the morning, but it looks like it should be gone by game time. So Likely to add especially if that total does get down to 41 and a half So that's what my numbers are seeing for this week We'll talk with Ryan Williams on Thursday about the full preview and talk with JJ about some player products But I feel pretty good about the card for this week now Should I feel good about the card is a different issue? Let's talk about Recapping last week here on the show. We'll talk about my NFL stuff in a bit Let's start things off here with some World Cup results got some World Cup results from Things discussed here on the show Ed absolutely nailed Ed Feng I should say on Twitter at the power rank He nailed the Germany Costa Rica match He was saying, you know, Germany is an over team They need goals and turns out they very much needed goals in that game And the total in that game over three and a half goals was minus 118 It finished with six goals total for two favor Germany So good read by Ed there a very chaotic group Where they had to push and they definitely did so good read by Ed good result for Ed in that one He did get close with the two group beds He mentioned before the first match of the tournament began. He liked Mexico and Poland to win the group group C They're both plus 490 bet both hoping effectively to fade Argentina and Argentina did lose their opening match But they rallied to win against both Poland and Mexico So it was a fun one had some hope there early on didn't hit but Was fun to attract that one and get some hope early on in the in the tournament We had Austin Cass on last week Friday to preview the round of 16. You can find also on Twitter at Austin Cass still is Portugal that he talked about them at plus 155 reach the semis that one is still live We'll see if they play today for their their their round of 16 matchups as that one's still out there We talked to us versus Netherlands He said that if we got confirmation that Policic would play he take the US at plus 350 to win in the first 90 minutes Well, stoppage time they lost three to one obviously You know Poland just finished. I don't know a lot about soccer So if I sound stupid here, I apologize But Poland finished on their chances the USA did not and that's difference in the match and Poland played well So about the US pressured well again, I don't know a lot I could be talking about here, but I thought they pressured well just didn't convert on their chances So you asked a lot three to one there But it was fun to have them Playing decently well throughout the tournament on the NFL side of things. I had a week of missed opportunities It was very frustrating. I had the three money lines They had were the Giants plus 108 the Jets plus 134 and the Dolphins plus 172 the Giants tied So that's a push, you know, they went to OT could have won that game really stupid game I thought they should have won that game is not very frustrating to get a push there The Jets lost by five that was after scoring zero red zone touchdowns and four trips. They had their chances They got to Kirk Cousins. They disrupted him, but they didn't convert. So that was annoying The dolphins one they're facing a back of quarterback They had a huge play huge flukey play that can often tip the scales, but they did nothing with it So they deserve to lose but in very frustrating fashion. I had the Bucks minus three last night They went super run heavy. It was one of those bets where The second you saw their offensive game plan. I knew I was toast like they did rally to win but Seeing them come out and be run heavy on early downs in the first half it It made me want to tear up my virtual ticket. It was not an actual ticket, but like a virtual ticket there It was just super annoying. So that one was based on my newer model I'm having the new model compete with the old model kind of decide which one I want to roll with entering next year and That that came from the newer model newer model didn't back test as well as the old model this week My old spread model if I just bet every line That had two points of value there. I'd gone six and two against the spread. I opted for money lines I wound up pushing As a result of the money line opted for games where my new model showed value I swung and miss I picked poorly I did mention that there was value in the Browns minus seven quite a bit of value there I couldn't justify rooting for them myself. Hopefully you took that one. I couldn't do it personally, but Frustrating week again You know if I if I'm looking at my money line model and my spread model the traditional one We're plus cv for the year if I just you know take everything but I haven't so Hopefully that means I'll start picking better, but it's been a trend. So Frustrating you overall. I'm hoping to turn around starting this week Ryan went to and for this week. One of the losses was the Texas money line to plus 270 So, you know, obviously scaling there does matter two and three in the minus one ten bets for Ryan The wins were the Eagles at minus four and a half and the Lions plus one got a lot of movement in on the Lions game They're and they obliterated them and the Eagles were awesome. So good movement awesome results for Ryan there The losses were the dolphins in 49ers under 46 and a half the bears a plus five and a half and the cheese at minus two and a half I believe the bears one closed at four and a half It got to three and a half once Fields was full practice Thursday Then I think went back to four and a half at close. So I think you have some TLV there cheese minus two and a half The other one there. So it's still an awesome year for Ryan overall Looking forward talking to him again on Thursday to get his thoughts on the bigger games in week number 14 JJ Zachary's and it both of his yardage props and almost hit the touchdown prop For this week the artist props were Cory Davis over 35 and a half receiving yards Sake one Barclay under 71 and a half rushing yards. David's finished with 85 yards. So he blew past that one Sake one pull played a full 10 extra minutes got played overtime played to a tie He's still finished with just 63 rushing yards. So JJ at both those the touchdown prop was Joe Burrow over two and a half Passing touchdowns at plus 160 Burrow had two passing touchdowns and one on the ground So three little touchdowns, but that wasn't the best Tyler and Boyd dropped a touchdown They had that goal line stop with the attention to reverse. So JJ easily could have hit that one at plus 160 But either way nice for JJ profitably for JJ based on the two yardage props Finally, we had Tom Vecchio on at DFS underscore Tom to talk money that football I talked about the Bucks minus three already. He had Brady over 40 and a half passing attempts at minus 114 He finished with 54 passing attempts way over that one. Good call there other ones Kamara over 26 and a half receiving yards. They played Mark Ingram a lot Kind of weird that seemed like Kamara was limited and he finishes just 11 receiving yards. So under hit there Tom had Mike Evans over 16 and a half receiving yards. He finished at 59. So miss there Touch them bets or Adam Troutman at plus 480 and Chris Godwin at plus 180 Neither of those said I tried to talk Tom into Rashid Shaheed at eight to one. He played great Four targets in that game about 80 yards receiving. He was awesome. I was super impressed of them Didn't score though. So all around Rough week here on the show as far as results go It's been a rough year for me at least in the NFL our guests have done a lot better But for me for whatever reason not great results I still feel good about my numbers. They're backtesting. Well, they're best backtesting really well recently and They are better now than they were earlier on this year So I still have faith in what the numbers are saying still have faith that eventually the results will click They just haven't done that yet. I'm hoping that begins this week. So Hopefully we get some better results here in the very near future want to get some good, you know A combination a good week where we combine good closing line value with good results We haven't had that a lot this year So we'll see where things turn out, but we'll keep doing this transparency section So I can keep eating crow on the stuff So because we owe that to you to let you know when things are not going well Which has been the case of the most part this year, but again backtesting Well, we'll see if we can turn things around heading into week number 14 Still to come later on this week at thing to talk about the World Cup talking about the round of eight We'll break down. What is numbers are saying about? That round get you some hopefully some match bets there based on the out-the-fandals sportsbook That's tomorrow of Ryan Williams on Thursday JJ later on this week as well talks and player props all those you can get them by Subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and also on the faddle you could to page We appreciate those of you for following along with us so far this year if you've got any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-i-m-s-a-n-n-e-s you can also follow the faddle podcast network at faddle podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with any bets you got going on for the next couple of days We'll talk to you once again Wednesday talk some more World Cup with that This has been covering the spread right here on the faddle podcast network