 DCA or dollar cost averaging can have its pitfalls and there's a lot of things to really take into consideration and today I want to break it down what some of my fears and risks are with dollar cost averaging and hopefully how you can avoid these same pitfalls that I went through. So first things first on this channel as you may know I like to just dollar cost average. There's another another term called value cost averaging where instead of doing it daily or weekly you just take a base amount or a chunk of whatever you have and then break it up into two or three maybe up to six pieces and just go across a time continuum. I don't really use that that well because this is not the way that I like to do things but with this one if you want to take a look at how dollar cost averaging and the crypto and digital asset market has done there's no better websites than dca-cc.com and I've talked about this this website quite a bit and I linked it in the description so you can check it out and you can take a look and you can dca very simply and you can pick the top 20 and you can take a look at over you know any time period that you want to and you can put it in from if you want to do like a how much your weekly your investment is it could be a hundred dollars it could be a thousand dollars like we ten thousand dollars a week you can pick a bi-weekly or monthly or whatever else and it's it's a really good tool just to see how things will work out and what I took a look at is when I put together this this little data points on a slideshow I showed you most of the good stuff but I didn't really break into the bad part of dollar cost averaging and I want to do that today just to get everybody up to speed and then they can make their decision as time goes on so I'm going to take a look at we're going to take a look at bitcoin we're going to take a look at ethereum we're going to take a look at cardano we're going to take a look at chain link and unfortunately dash direct excuse me dash and salt salty get wrecked so first things first if you started and everything's going to be the same to keep things just straight easy logical so if you invested a hundred dollars per week and you started in 2018 january first 2018 of course after we hit the top and december 17th 2017 and you would have sold at the very top and if you would invest it again hundred dollars a week every week for all this time frame you would have been up 7x you would have invested 20 000 roughly and you would have 146 000 in okay and these are the things that we've talked about multiple times so this is this shouldn't be if you're new to the channel welcome but if you've been here a while you know this is just old news again same thing if you go in 2019 it's only a six and a half x so i think there's less risk and uh you know you will have uh better not better gains but not as risky gains you would have put in 15 000 out 100 000 as far as a profit if you would have hit the top which let's be honest you're not going to or maybe you will who knows and if you went in 2020 you've been in four x of course in 2020 that is the year of the halving we are just about to come up to another halving in 2024 so if you are here right now i personally believe you're here in the right place the right time and of course if you would have gone into the bull run year and invested 100 dollars per week on january 1 2021 and you would have hit the top and i mean timed it perfectly you only have 1.5 x so this is how dca works out pretty well however there is a flip side of this and the flip side is if you get so ingrained into the dollar cost averaging where you're just like okay i gotta get in there i'm gonna dollar cost average i'm gonna buy the dip buy the dip buy the dip and you wait and you say you know what uh i just don't want to sell at any point again there are some rules underneath me and those rules are very simple there's five rules it's all gone i mean don't invest more you can afford to lose everything's a scam and sell premium otherwise don't leave anything on exchanges don't use leverage and take profits along the way because nobody ever went broke taking profits right so again some people are like i'm gonna die in hands forever michael sailor is one of those guys and we'll talk about that in a second but if you would have dollar cost average from january 1 2018 and never sold a dime for five years you'd only be up 2.7 x as of june 26 2023 so of course today is july 3 it's about the same price wise you only have 2.7 x so i think the problem with dollar cost averaging and this is what i ran into is that you never take profits now some of you can say rob i'm never taking profits because this is going to go to my grandkids i'm going to have it for my family and i'm just gonna live be there forever and of course bitcoin's going to a million because that's what people tell me maybe it does i don't know but for me personally i'm not sure that we'll live in a society where everything is going to be valued into bitcoin i could be wrong but if i'm not i'm going to diversify and hedge my bet so back to this little piece here let's take a look at how you do with cardano again hundred dollars a week you would have 16 x if you would hit the top uh in 2019 you would actually done better you would have a 17 x again the year after the all-time high is a just a big dip here it's just a big falling falling candle year so in 2018 it's like you're pretty much just dollar cost averaging down down down and if you just would wait till the next year we'd actually just had less risk and actually would have done better a 17 x and then again 2021 x the year of the halving 2021 you only would have doubled if you would hit the top and again if you would have held for five years you would have five x for ethereum which i gotta tell you is actually not too bad if you consider what the returns are on the s and p 500 nasdaq you're looking at seven to nine percent annually year over year so still not a bad framework but not what it could have been if we would actually taking a look at some of the indicators cardano same thing 35 x if you would invest in january 1st 2018 a 39 x in the reset years uh only a 26 x and a 3 x and if you would have if you would have held this whole time you're only up to an half x for five years now we look at cardan or excuse me chain link you'd have been up 61 x on january 1st 2018 again you may see a pattern here which is the lower you go down on the rung of uh of the different altcoin markets to risk your things become but the more gains you could potentially have but how many of these top 10 are still on top 10 so just think about that so chain link 2018 again even if you missed and i want to say this again even if you miss the top and you don't really like i miss this because i can't sell the top because it's very difficult even if you miss the top and invest in january 1st and got down here in 2021 you still would have been up 37 x so i just want to think about if you're like well i want a diamond hand so you can do that sometimes you miss some things 2019 28 x 20 only an 8 x the bull run year 1.5 x and again if you would have gone through from 2018 you'd be up 5 x in five years again not too bad and then of course a dash of salt just remember that not everything's coming back dash if you still own it congratulations you're up like 3 x in five years i guess not bad and then dash of salt or salt itself you'd be wrecked so that's what we take a look at and this all comes down to and it's predicated on the four-year cycles which we talked about in ad nauseam for quite some time having all time i dip resets having all time i dip reset happening in 2016 2019 we're going through it again having all time i dipped did we not see a massive dip in 2022 now we're in a reset year back to 30 000 for bitcoin gate and who knows what'll happen in the future but the thing is you have to remember is this there's downfalls of dca and there's also downfalls to this this four-year time frame because what if i'm wrong what if we're wrong what if this doesn't actually happen all models are wrong and some are useful so there's a video i want everybody to check out a gentleman by the name of bob lucas and i linked his video in the description he's one of those guys that actually was pretty accurate calling tops last cycle and in this video he made it very simple he's like look after after we have you know the having we got so many weeks until we had an all-time high around 35 and then of course we had an all-time we had a massive low for the cycle 47 weeks after and then it happened uh happened again in 2021 35 weeks and then 49 weeks so in this video you would think him just to say well it's gonna happen again 35 and 49 or 48 or whatever else it is but he says no he goes for this one he talks about how 2024 might be the actual all-time high and if that is the truth and we won't know until we get there let's be honest i mean something could come out where you know gary genzel gets fired and all these ETFs get approved and i'm not super convinced that et that these spot ETFs are going to be fantastic for the market anyhow i'm still not convinced that it's actually going to go through but let's say some other thing happens and we see central banks pick up bitcoin and they're actually on the balance sheet just like gold before you know it all this becomes irrelevant so you have to really stay up to date with the market however it's just something good to take a look at and to challenge the idea of the four-year cycles because the problem is is that investing there's a lot of dogma especially in in in crypto and the digital asset space people like this is it this is the only way this is how it goes and i think we get too caught up into it so i just want to make sure everybody has another side to this so they can do their due diligence and move forward so what do we do how do we make sure as time goes on that we don't screw this up and we're not one of those people that diamond hands forever and we get dash or salt and we're you know wrecked and just holding things and buying dips forever and we don't take a little bit of funds out to i don't know pay our credit card bills or pay off our house or you know get out of debt or actually get into other assets that might diversify a little bit i know michael sailor will say all day long that you know it's the best thing ever and that's all you should know i'm pretty sure he owns other assets i'm just gonna guess anyhow this is what i try to do i try to take a look at different sites that will help me and of course benz is really good uh you know into the crypto verse there's a link in the description you get a month off but what i like about this is you can go through all these these metrics what i like about this really a lot is this it's got it plays it all out price on chain metric social in a summary and you can take a look at all these like market value versus realized value z score 12 multiple minor cab transaction fees terminal price and a bunch of other ones and you can take a look at all those things or you can just look at here and go okay well on chain analysis read pretty good this might be a time to actually get into bitcoin and the crypto market social metrics same thing youtube subscribers youtube views price metrics bitcoin risk and just kind of lays it all out right and that's just one piece of the puzzle you can't just look at this and go okay this is it i'm just gonna use that it's like when people tell me rob i only use greed and fear index to buy and sell well if you look at the greed and fear index you missed out on a ton of gains when people went into extra greedy territory i'm just saying you can you can take a look at fear and greed index we've talked about this ad nausea i'm not going to do it again but there's a lot of things we should take a look at one of those big things i take a look at is this the time in risk bands and before i'm a member two i know people are like rob stop showing this stuff because you're giving away all the secrets and i pay for this every month and why are you showing this stuff calm down i'm just going to show everybody this time in risk bands what they should be taking a look at because this this makes sense to explain it but you're going to need to take a look at this on like at least a weekly basis to see where the heck things are what i'm talking about so this time in risk man there are certain days and you can take a look at and it goes by total market cap it looks by altcoin market cap bitcoin ethereum aida which is doing fantastic in the ecosystem congratulations for all those holders bnb sol and link and it takes a look at this this time risk band or when it actually is in these priced points throughout their entire roughly their entire existence so we're going to take a look at bitcoin real quick and to make this you know very simple like what is this so i broke it down that same this this four-year cycle risk bands you can find the link to this presentation in the description it's the very bottom and what i did was i added in this thing the time in risk bands are what i do so what you're taking a look at right now let's see bitcoin is currently in the 0.5 to 0.6 risk band which is right over here which is we're heating up quite honestly so what i take a look at is this everything starts with my with the highest day point whether that be bitcoin or ethereum or whatever else and i just take a look at this okay this is my baseline this is my base level and for all these time points i mean bitcoin is in the 0.3 to 0.4 low risk for roughly 1143 days for its roughly its existence and then the price point as it gets increases 0.4 it's only for 913 days 0.5 to 0.6 485 0.6 and you can see as things heat up like this risk band of 0.9 to 1.0 it's only been there 18 days that might be a good idea to sell not tell you what to do not your dad or over here it's in this 0.001 134 days might be a good time to buy so how do you do this well i just do what's called dynamic dca so i start here i'm just gonna give you just a simple example so here is 0.001 let's say i buy bitcoin for 100 bucks a week or maybe you buy 20 bucks a week or maybe you're a baller and you say you know what $10,000 a week rob because that's how i roll great have fun but let's just give it round numbers i'm not that smart so i need to stick with round numbers so 100 bucks a week in zero point there's okay got it right so every week if it's in this band i'm spending 100 bucks a week buying bitcoin dollar cost averaging it executes on coinbase i have it already set up now then i'm checking it every so often and let's say it goes to the band of 0.2 to 0.3 so it's getting less risky the price of bitcoin is going down so maybe i want to increase that by 25 percent and i'm going to buy 125 bucks a week or let's say it gets a little risky and i say you know what i want to decrease that by 75 dollars a week because i want to wait for stuff over here so you see how it's balanced i try to balance them as best i can and some people say rob that's stupid i'm just going to buy 100 bucks a week all the way through have fun go at it your goals are not my goals and that could work really well for you quite honestly this is how i do things and it's it's up to you to decide what works for you now let's say we go on these crazy risk bands 0.1 to 0.2 i'm like you know what here's my base of 100 bucks a week from here i want to go up 50 percent i'm going to go 150 bucks a week or let's say it starts to starts to decrease or sorry increase and heat up 0.1 now i'm going to pay only 50 bucks a week and then let's say it goes real crazy let's say like we just had recently gosh what was it last november i guess that wasn't that recently okay forgive me you're in that 0.001 level and you're at roughly $15,936 whatever else it was when you have the cycle low that might be a good time to really go in heavy or heavier and you want to go you want to double 100 bucks a week but let's say it goes over here and you're at 0.6 to 0.7 maybe you want to think about selling a little because there's going to be opportunities over here it doesn't just go up into the right forever it doesn't do that it can't do that nothing does that so maybe you want to think about selling a little bit and then get over here you're like man i got to really sell so that is just the things that i do to help me not buy all the time and take some profits and maybe roll things into other assets and opportunities that i see fit so it's just up to it's just up to what you want to do and i will say this if you're looking for more indicators or things that i'm looking for myself there's a link in the description it's in every one of my videos now and it says why and when i'm selling 80% of my crypto you can click on that and i go over everything i talk about and there's another one that's super important i feel it's called don't make these crypto mistakes these are all my screw-ups i have learned so far over 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, jeez at least seven years i've been being in crypto so just you you have to learn from mistakes there's not to be your mistakes so watch that video as well and if you don't want to search for all these things there's this website it's called dan teaches crypto and it's 100 free i made it for you guys so you don't have to hunt and look around for everything so in module three there's a bunch of different modules i've got uh reviews how to do your own research how do you you know how you do stuff using a metamask wallets you get your taxes how do you stake theta blah blah blah blah so all those things but in module three investing there's chewy man i miss chewy i go over some the golden rules this is the one where we talk about all my screw-ups valuable lessons for investing for your cycle have a plan and there's the video itself and a bunch of other stuff over there so check that out either way you want to that's it and then lastly i will just say uh we had uh kevin maloney he was the CEO of itrust yesterday because there's been a lot of uproar about uh prime trust and fortress and itrust so i brought him on to explain exactly what's happening don't sound off unless you've watched the video i think it was pretty interesting and also for everybody who is beating the drum on the uh self-custody for IRAs i need you to read this short piece from a law group where people were self-custodying certain commodities and they were deemed not relevance and had to pay a bunch of fees so check that out link in the description and that is it for today so look if you like today's video give it a thumbs up consider subscribing this isn't a set and forget it as we just talked about quite clearly but that is it for that piece now if you want to stick around i'll answer all your questions the best of my abilities and we'll chat and you can we can go from there but if not go enjoy sunday i know i'm going to myself but uh let's get into questions and see what you guys have claus is uh i'm starting to get the bull tangles excitement is coming it's true excitement is coming i think the thing that really kicked it off was