 PayPal stock. Could this thing be a 15 bagger or a 20 bagger? Could this thing be $900 stocks sometime in the future? my math says possibly and The way you do it is you just do some Peter Lynch math You do some Warren Buffett future discounting of intrinsic value and you might get the same information that I'm getting so I have a decade out here and if it's really Valued richly it might be at $900 stock in a decade. It might be a $500 stock in a decade In five years, you don't if you don't want to think about a decade you might think about 2028 and how PayPal could be $400 or back to its old high of $300 Fundamentally not not saying technical analysis is saying that at all because it isn't let me show you If we look at technical analysis It's saying we're in a bare mode still If we look at technical analysis, it's saying it could it could go lower So we are not showing any bullish signs in technical analysis Not even these green candles that we're seeing right now are bullish because they have to take out a high If you don't take out a high, that's not bullish at all. But fundamentally Once whatever is happening, which is probably some sort of a session Once whatever is done hitting the financials Which PayPal is a financial PayPal does have financial services. It does have merchant loans To small businesses and it also has brain tree, which is like a platform a payment platform Once we go through that then If we look at let's go look at a seeking alpha and look at the analysts who are working on this Stock trying to predict the future. That's what their job is They're saying that the numbers do make sense the PE for PayPal Forward PE as in once this year is done If it reaches these earnings 494 that's a 12 PE. That's a that's a hard thing to find a 12 PE For a company that is growing its earnings between 19 and 15% That's hard to get and it doesn't have a lot of debt They have almost 11 billion in cash and a little more than 11 billion in debt So the enterprise value matches the market cap. That's a good sign and then if you look at PayPal's earnings and you look at what they're expecting Hypothetically could happen with real hard data as long as we don't go into a deep recession depression These are the numbers are expecting in 10 years the earnings will be five times larger and the PE potentially in a decade right now is 2.8 Okay, so what do you do with all that and how does all that information? lead To the crazy talk that I'm talking about Well if You Look at historically at companies. They will trade at different multiples. So let's jump over to this spreadsheet They will trade at different multiples They might trade at a super cheap base value like 8.5 PE With zero growth and maybe factoring potential debt might trade at a historical PE of 15 15 to 20 we're seeing a lot of 20 17 on the S&P but 15 is a historical Average PE for the S&P 500 and larger cap companies If if you factor in growth, you might you might skip the 15 PE and use a multiple of growth So in this case, I'm using 18. So instead of 15 you would use a more Enthusiastic 18. So then you would use a higher multiple and in extreme cases when a company is growing very very quickly and There's a lot of investor excitement. You would use two times a growth rate So two times a growth rate is 18 times two and we would call that a peg two Two times a growth rate Peter Lynch's formula Benjamin Graham also speaks about this But if we spit those formulas we put those in in in here we put in earnings Expectations for this year and next year. It'll give us four valuations for every year and If we look I already put the price here. It's around 61 to 62 it was 59 at one point and It'll give us some more information if you see The price too low You can do some growth math if you see a really high you can expect to do some more math as well But look at the range of trading it can trade anywhere between $41 and 177 for this year it can trade anywhere between $48 and 200 next year and then we grow out the earnings and It gives me a potential valuation in five years and the potential valuation in ten years That's how I get these numbers that I'm getting if those numbers pan out which they don't always do those earnings It's like a living document. It moves but This is the best that I have To predict the future. I can't predict the future, but but I can plot it. I can plot what analysts expect Okay, so I actually I Am now interested the last time I made a video. I think it was like 70 something dollars, but now now It's down to 61 and let's say it even goes to to 40 Okay, it starts to get really ridiculous. Oh, that's something horrible is happening which does happen But they're already pricing that in they're already chopping at PayPal at an extreme amount Do I think it can't go lower? No, I've seen some crazy stuff, but when you look at PayPal compared to the market They are really smacking it. So I have also tangible value. They've got tangible value of seven So worst case, we know there's at least seven dollars worth of value in the stock and they don't have an excess amount of debt But I am very interested if I have another spreadsheet where I track about 40 45 companies and then I rank them by peg ratio That's one of the metrics by earnings yield. Look at the forward earnings yield of PayPal it's earning 8% it's beating Treasuries just like Warren Buffett likes. I'm sure he wouldn't invest in PayPal because it doesn't have a big enough moat but This is what PayPal earns right now It's it's June. We're almost people. He's they've almost earned about half of that peg ratio below one growth rate 18 a very respectable healthy growth rate and potentially the future future price I calculate potentially this one says a hundred and seventy dollars in ten years potentially 61 right now that would be a 14 bagger right now and Then here I just track the Potential entry prices if it does get to 43 that would be a 20 bagger So isn't that well? I think I will give away this other spreadsheet that I have I will put a link in the bottom and if you want to put in your own analysis You're welcome to do so Here's an example if we put in 10 $10,000 in Five years I could be 66k in ten years 152 if it goes to 40 Let's say 44 dollars And then we and then we put in the 10k that turns into a hundred grand or 92,000 in five years potentially and 211,000 that's a 20 bagger return in ten years So that's why I love the spreadsheets Let me know let me know if you agree or disagree with what's happening in PayPal positive free cash flow Let me know if you have dissent different thoughts if you disagree if you completely hate PayPal from what I heard Looking at the articles fed now the CBDC type stuff is a competitor to PayPal Also Apple pay is a threat to PayPal. That's why people are scared Also the merchant loans that they're making the default rate has gone from like low two to three to eight so far It is Am I missing anything? Is there anything I'm missing? I know they're they're also woke they didn't they Didn't they stop the truckers from from using their PayPal's something like that let me know in the comments if I'm missing something or Or you know, do you agree? Do you disagree? Let's let's discuss it Talk to you soon. Cheers