 Security program here at CSIS when I welcome all of you here today for this great event I've got the easiest job in the house today. I get to introduce a man who needs no introduction The long story short here is dr. Hamery who runs CSIS had heard Ryan Lance and spoke with him at an event and just thought that that he was such a Important figure and said so many interesting things that he invited him to come speak here at CSIS But unfortunately it got scheduled during a time when he is away and so as a stand-in for him We are very pleased to have with us today rich armatage Former deputy secretary of state and trustee here at the board at CSIS to do an introduction. So please Well, good afternoon. I was going to try to pull off a John Hamery imitation today, but I about six inches too short a lot of other things so I'll just Go with myself look we're going to hear today from a man who is in my view a Paragon of leadership now if you want someone who's going to introduce somebody by reading their bio. That's not me You can read Ryan Lance's bio, but I want to make a few comments from my point of view I have the honor of serving on the board of directors under chairman Ryan Lance's leadership You know it get a sense of the size of Conoco Phillips from over 19,000 employees about an 80 billion dollar market cap give or take it Any given day give active in 27 different countries With by the way an absolutely fantastic Executive leadership team which Ryan has developed. I mean these guys and gals are leaders in the entire industry But here what's fantastic to me about our chairman CEO is that he's as comfortable In the wiles of Alaska where he spent considerable time as he is in the boardroom in Houston, New York matter in Washington Ryan's is comfortable on a oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico or Malaysia As he is walking the halls of Congress as he's been doing for the last couple of days By the way, he's as comfortable in the cockpit of an airplane. He's soloed at 13 As he is in any D when he was in the Middle East You know, I guess the thing that I would say that I've come to understand about the oil and gas industry and our Company Conoco Phillips in particular is that the chairman is someone who has to be able to simultaneously Walk with cowboys and with Kings Princes and Prime Ministers because that's what our chairman does But let me tell you why I'm so high on the leadership of Ryan Lance. I One time had the opportunity to travel alone with him to Norway I think it was and we were just chatting and I asked him what was important to him and without hesitation. He said family faith and company Now think about it. That's the kind of leadership we want I think he's got things on the right priority and it's the type of representative we want for our nation as he travels internationally and Deals with D when he is and my beliefs and Prime Ministers and presidents So ladies and gentlemen, I have the honor of introducing today's speaker the chairman and CEO of Conoco Phillips Mr. Ryan Lance Thank you Well rich, thank you. I I'm honored to to be here today And it's it's a great opportunity for me and even to have one of my board members here So I have to make sure I'm on my peas and queues because performance reviews are in February So they're coming coming pretty quickly, but Turn that off. Okay. Sorry. Can you hear me? Okay? Okay, but it's great And I really appreciate Frank Sarah the the opportunity and peace past my thanks on to John too as we We got to know each other and talk a little bit about some of the issues that are facing our country as an industry and energy industry Some of the policy issues that are coming As a result of some of the energy renaissance that we're seeing here in the US It was thought it was an opportunity time to come and spend a little bit of time with CIS CSIS To have this discussion because it is a pretty important time in our country's history right now with what's what's happening in the energy business Because we truly do have a renaissance that's underway And I think you can view this really from four perspectives First it's a technology story And then second it's moved to a natural gas story and from there It's moved to an oil story and then finally and now what I'd like to talk to you about today is an exports story And this is entails policy decisions that we need to start grappling with as a country as we think about Some of this energy revolution that's going on in the United States You know none of this seemed possible back in the 1970s We had energy shortages. We had an oil embargo with gasoline lines With factories and schools that weren't providing heat for their buildings and we had rising import dependence And the government did respond with regulations and policies intended to protect the consumers some worked some didn't For example, certainly price controls cut domestic supplies and they did create shortages back then and for the next three decades We saw both industry upturns and downturns similar to maybe what we're seeing today in our business But really I wouldn't say not much progress in the overall energy balance But today I think we've reversed those fortunes as an industry But I think the US now has assumed leadership reassumed leadership role in the energy arena We're passing Russia is the number one producer when you combine oil and gas together. Our production is climbing Our imports are falling We now have a century supply of natural gas in this in the in the US LNG imports have virtually ended in the country And we have multiple states in regions now that are booming from this energy development jobs are being created By really the hundreds of thousands in in the old patch across all the regions of the United States And many outside the producing traditional areas that we've seen in the energy business No, there's only gas business now supports 9.8 million jobs in the US and contribute about 8% of our GDP I think you've all heard the story. It started with homegrown technology starving hydraulic fracturing back in the 1970s Then in the 80s or back all the way back to the 40s with hydraulic fracturing Then in the 80s with horizontal Directional drilling that this business did and then the 90s as we in the 2000s as we combine those technologies To exploit the shell rock that we see today and by I think mid 2000 we'd cracked the code in this business This new production revived the natural gas business in the industry and then that renaissance now has spread to liquids But there there were other innovations in our business deep water Gulf of Mexico Getting into the deep water environment figuring out how to produce that economically the Canadian oil sands are neighbor to the north And then we were also applying a lot of this technology to older onshore fields as well So today we find us in a uniquely advantageous situation We in Canada have a far greater energy supply security Low-caste is reviving low gas natural gas prices is reviving our industries We're building new facilities by the hundreds and in fact even foreign-based companies are coming here to the US To build they'd rather build here than build at home because of cheap energy costs And certainly affordable energy has helped drive the US economy forward But we do face some challenges But it's not that we're being not from the shales staying power because we've really just scratched the potential in that business Most of our new production comes from a just a handful of giant fields You've heard some of the names Eagleford in Texas And also the premium basin and the Barnett you've heard North Dakota the Bakken in North Dakota the Marcellus up here in the East They hold enormous amounts of hydrocarbons tens of billions of barrels of equivalent And our recovery factors are rising how much that all we get out of the ground that's thanks to more density better science around hydraulic fracturing And in the best areas we're finding pay zones that are dramatic. They're very thick and they're stacked on top of each other So we're climbing climbing that learning curve on the shale production and we're getting more efficient all the time Meanwhile several dozen potentially protective productive trends in both the US and Canada. We haven't even gotten to fully exploit So the message is this isn't this is the first inning of a nine inning game and it here's here for the long term So our energy challenges really aren't from scarcity They're from success The natural gas is nearly at a surplus in North America. We plan to export it some as LNG or liquefied natural gas It's wanted worldwide for its environmental benefits and also for the supply security that we offer as a nation and by 2016 just next year you'll start to see LNG we become a net LNG exporter as a country And I think this is really viewed favorably overseas as they is they contemplate this new paradigm in the US You know natural our natural gas prices are half of those in Europe and a third of those in Asia Now those spreads have eroded a little bit lately and with the in the in the cost to ship and the cost to liquefy that Does does present some some competitive opportunities, but really our LNG is going to be competitive worldwide And our abundance can accommodate both the exports that we are going to make as well as domestic consumption here in the United States The exports aren't going to drain our surplus There may be some limiting factors competition from Australia competition from the Middle East from Asia Pacific It's going to cost us six to seven dollars per million BTU to move to liquefy and ship this LNG to our customers But that still means the US consumers have a built-in advantage But we have plenty of supply to satisfy both our US consumers and the exports that we're talking about The DOE has studied it. They've approved, you know ten or so billion cubic feet per day of exports It's only 10 to 15 percent of our current consumption And they've examined the results and thought about even higher volumes of LNG being export as much as up to 20 BCF Although they deem those levels unlikely They still have studied it and said the US consumer will have plenty of gas natural gas to consume In return for exporting this natural gas. We're going to see meaningful benefits They create new markets for our domestic production You know the prices to producers might rise a little bit But that's good because that means we have more money to reinvest to put back into the development of more gas We create jobs in economic stimulation the balance of trade improves And there's more near did a study for the DOE it predicts that the GDP would rise somewhere between five to fifty Billion dollars through exports now that exact amount depends on the production level that we ultimately export So I think you'll agree that exports in general are pretty vital to the economy the US is the world's second leading product exporter Products and services together generated 2.3 trillion in exports in 2013 1 7th of our GDP Now the next acts aspect of this renaissance is its move to oil into liquids with natural gas approaching a surplus And the development of that has really slowed down because of that surplus Waiting on more demand and exports instead. This industry has turned to liquids and we're approaching a surplus there as well Let me give you a few numbers just to ground everybody 1970 We peaked at a nation as a nation at about 11 million barrels a day of production It fell for the next 30 years and bottomed out at about 7 million barrels a day in 2009 But now we've climbed back up just in that short period of time back to 10 million barrels a day The DOE predicts 12 million barrels a day production from the US by 2020 and their high resource case predicts 18 million barrels a day by 2040 So there you get a sense that this is a revolution that has staying power and a lot of growth potential And at the same time our friends to the north and Canada have made progress They're producing now four million barrels a day and that could be increased 50% by 2030 and that role is right next door in a friendly reliable country It's the world's third largest oil resource and we're the logical market here in the US But meanwhile our US demand is pretty flat And we've mandated the renews of the the use of renewable fuel And we are building and running more efficient cars and trucks And as you know, we still import some oil both us and Canada production together are climbing They're approaching that total demand and they'll exceed it in the very near future So we in Canada together become net exporters of crude by 2020 Now you might say what about the low prices today? Well, yeah, there are low prices that will infect investment It might take a little bit longer, but that's the trajectory. We're headed on here in both North America and in the US Now as for the crude oil market for efficiency It should involve both imports and exports and I know that's counterintuitive, but let me give you some underlying facts Shellrock this revolution that we're undergoing in in the US is made up of really Condensate in what we call light oil so it's very light sweet crude that doesn't have a lot of impurities in it And it's very different from heavy oil the kind of oil that comes from Venezuela, Mexico and from Canada That all has a higher sulfur content takes more to refine it now These two were these two light and heavy require a different refining configuration to turn that crude into gasoline and diesel The light oil that we're producing from this revolution in the US isn't a good match for Gulf Coast refineries Or our West Coast and some of our East Coast refineries as well They were configured years ago to run the heavy crude that Venezuela and Mexico is producing now to process more of the light Oil that we're developing in these unconventional plays. They have to operate inefficiently So they have to run at reduced rates. They have to operate inefficiently or for them They got to discount the oil to get them to incentivize to take it into their refinery and it costs higher processing costs for them to To refine it now the IHS and others have studied this issue And they found that the discount could be as much as 10 to 25 dollars a barrel So that's a pretty significant discount in order to incentivize the refiners to take this light sweet crude That becomes a pretty big hit to the producing side of the equation Puts less capital in to reinvest back into the business to continue to grow and develop and grow the production out of the The show and that crunch time is coming. It's coming pretty quickly Light oil production already exceeds refining capacity seasonally And so during the fall and the spring when the refineries going to turn around and maintenance sessions They can't take the volume of light sweet crude that we're producing as a country And that seasonal surplus will become a year around annual surplus Starting in 2017 and certainly beyond Now what can the refiners do we can they could invest more money To expand their capacity to take this light sweet crude that we're producing as a nation But that's going to roughly cost them four hundred dollar four hundred million dollars per plant Certainly a challenge getting the permits to do that expansion They're already making investments to meet tighter restrictions on gasoline Specifications and certainly getting the permits on the airside and the mercury side some of the others are going to be very difficult So we need to talk about this issue today. We need to talk about it now We're seeing the seasonal surpluses that 17 threshold really is only two years away And the estimates are by 2020 will need to be exporting one and a half to two million barrels of crude a day Otherwise we face a threat to this development and this renaissance that we're seeing in the u.s You know in our country needs these energy industries jobs and creation and economic stimulation. It's been good for the country But there is a perfect storm of converging threats first You got the depressed u.s. Natural gas market. I think the lng imports will help that Second this discount that we see on domestic light oil and third the oil price downturn that we're currently experiencing And that downturn will probably have an impact U.s. Light production was up one million barrels a day just last year Now some predictions that will slow growth will slow to about 700 000 barrels a day this year A bit less maybe the year beyond that In many of these planned light oil projects, they break even at 70 dollars a barrel They'll start becoming uneconomic at various prices below that and the vast majority probably uneconomic below 40 dollars So the so the current market does have an impact certainly in the investments that's available to continue the growth Um, but you can see a danger that happens if you have a discount between the wti the prices that we pay For uh for oil here in the u.s Now those prices today wti ranges about 45 to 50 dollars a barrel and it worsens As we go on and this this uh supply Bubble goes goes through the system a few projects will break even The cash flow for investments will fall And uh, we're also disadvantaged competitively against our foreign producers You'll lay down drilling rigs more jobs will be gone and the u.s. Economic Stimulation will start to be reduced So this price challenge won't stop all the activity because some of the better areas in the uh shell are still quite productive Some remain economic the resources are there And uh, we have that rising ability to produce and get more efficient in the shell So the economics will have to improve some as those innovations take hold But our growth our growth will slow down certainly at these low prices, but it won't stop and that's what's important You won't stop Because we've changed that structural situation for the u.s oil and gas outlook because we've gotten more efficient and we understand How to produce these unconventionals But that what what a potential reduce activity that will do is cause impacts not to our industry But to the u.s in general, but there is a solution and but it does does have several parts And uh, first it's the heavy oil issue Uh traditional supplies are falling in mexico and venezuela But the canadian oil sands can replace them And that is the gulf coast refiners can get this oil economically They need to get the we need to get that oil economically down to the gulf coast So certainly approving the keystone pipeline is a is a vital piece to that Otherwise, we're going to move all by rail, which is certainly more expensive and a bit more uh more dangerous Second we start exporting we can start exporting our surplus oil That's the refoil that the refineries cannot process economically today But there is a roadblock and it's the federal law since 1975 The energy policy and conservation act is prohibited crude oil import exports But there are a few exceptions. There's some into canada oral from alaska, but the ban is really out of date Times have changed and for the better. It's a new world that we live in today. So policy policy should change as well Now the government can and should address this issue It should allow for broader crude oil exports. It can be done either through executive or legislative action, but something must be done Otherwise in today's low oil price environment will lose even more potential production growth down the road So we should take action And we should do it before we cross the year end and certainly before the 2016 election cycle Otherwise it will certainly complicate the discussion politically We should treat crude oil just like any other potential export product that we have in the us today You know, as you know, us participation is vital to the trade and global leadership that we provide Even now we're speaking in terms of tpp negotiations with asia and also the ttip negotiations in europe We should adopt that same philosophy on oil. We should open the market to normal trade flows We do it for all the other products that we produce as a country By the way, the us is the third largest us export by dollar volume is oil products today the third largest export It's gasoline. It's diesel fuel. There can be exported illegally But not the crude that makes and generates the gasoline and the diesel. So we've made a little progress The administration now considers natural gas liquids and some process condensates as exports So they can be exported and it's certainly a step in the right direction But it doesn't provide that a relief needed It it really is targeting a very very small development small area of production in the us We should repeal the crude oil export ban. We shouldn't treat it differently from other products like natural gas They're all just commodity energy sources and they can be traded profitably to the benefit of the united states Now several studies have looked at those benefits Brookings us production would increase by three million barrels a day By by repeal of the export ban jobs would be created Income would be generated from the service supply and support industries household income would grow IHS tells us that the industry would make 750 billion in added investments through 2030 Certainly a lot of stimulus Annual GDP would gain 135 billion dollars at the peak We'd add a million more direct and indirect supply chain jobs And our trade balance would improve by 67 billion dollars the government 1.3 trillion of additional tax and roly revenue And that split between the federal government the state and the local governments everybody wins And the consumers win they get lower gasoline prices And I know that seems counterintuitive We're going to export and we're going to get lower gasoline prices But when the world oil price comes down Fuel prices gasoline prices come down. That's true worldwide. It's true here in the united states The discounted light all that we've seen in the past has not led to lower gasoline prices because it hasn't had the ability To get into the open market and reduce the global price oil So by adding our exports to that global market, it will will help reduce fuel prices Now studies by government think tanks and and energy consultancies agree on this issue You know the sub brookings a resource for the future the reserve bank from dallas ihs eia icf And all of them estimate the savings on gasoline could represent 18 billion dollars annually nine to 12 cents a gallon So the consumer benefits and think about the geopolitical benefits of exporting our crude We could help stabilize the old market the growth of old market get the ups and the downs stabilized We've already seen that happen You know our new light oil production now We've we've added three million barrels a day a light oil production over the last four to five years And that has backed out three million barrels a day of imports that we would bring into the us And that's about the same amount of production that we've lost due to some of the geopolitical events in the middle east in north africa Places in libya and iran and iraq So the production that we've added is a country There's three million barrels a day that we brought on in light suites backed out imports stabilized the global market Offset the loss of production from some of these countries In some estimates would tell you that if we hadn't had that circumstance all things being equal The Brent price would have been 12 to 40 dollars higher if we hadn't had the three million barrels a day of production coming from the us But once we finish backing out all the imports of light oil that our refineries need After that our influence is going to start to decline. There are going to be no more light oil imports left to back out So through all exports we can continue to maintain that influence. We can still influence the global market It would certainly supply diversify the supply base and create a more competitive market The crude oil exports would also demonstrate our commitment to free and open markets After all, there's a lot of countries that want the goods that we produce and when they expect them to export them to us They may not and don't they want to get access to the surplus light oil that we have as a nation Certainly it enhances our foreign policy leverage We could provide more supply security to the globe And certainly the countries that need that are important to get access to this excess supply that the us has In exports would shift revenue back to the us and away from some of those less reliable suppliers Exports would enhance the global power that underlies our global influence Again, we'd be exporting our high value oil while importing lower value lower quality heavy oil But keep this in mind. We're only going to export our surplus oil US refiners would still have as much light oil as they need to run their refineries They'd have a competitive advantage over the foreign refiners And that's because it costs us two to six dollars a barrel to export this crude to other locations So the us refiners are taken care of and we're talking about they have a built-in advantage And we're only talking about exporting the surplus that they can't handle today And the growing surplus that they won't be handled tomorrow into the future And the us refiners have another built-in advantage relative to their foreign competition today And that's cheap natural gas prices. That's also come from this energy revolution in the shell production We flatten the price curve. We've lowered the costs of natural gas And anybody who's a manufacturing industry that relies where energy is an important part of their cost structure We've certainly made them much more competitive in the global environment today So in closing I would say we got a big job ahead of us to couldn't certainly convince the policy makers and the public on this important issue But we first have to change the mindset around scarcity because that's gone It's really a holdover from the last century But certainly memories have a long long history and they take a long time But i'm here to tell you this this energy renaissance in the us is real and it's here today And it's here for the long term. This is not just something that will come and go quickly And it can continue to serve as an important part of the us economic engine of growth And we can help that by ensuring that we recognize these new realities And allowing the exports, so I hope you'll join me in helping tell that story So thank you appreciate your time, and I look forward to answering some of your questions So i'm frank for astro. I'm a senior vice president here, and I have this lessenger chair The last time that ryan was here was 2012 And I mentioned that to him upstairs It was the same week. He was here that he was named ceo of conico And his response was that it was a doubly auspicious week for him So we thought it was time to get him back in his in his new role And during that time, I got to tell you that our recollection among the staff was that you were calm articulate Short-term, you know technically proficient But could tell a story and this is what this industry needs right now It's an articulate spokesman that's thoughtful and gets the word out. So we hope you'll come back here many more times Be happy to thank you. Okay. We're actually marking you down The amount of questions that we have so I've decided that I wanted to start off with Your ceo role so that we do some operational things and then we'll raise it to the The policy issue question and then we want to save time at the end so that Our participants can ask questions as well, and that's what we do in these forums But starting so when you first took this job in 2012 You reposition the company and as richard said, you're the largest independent If you look at exploration production reserves In the united states, but you have production in 27 countries and it's across all all forms So you're in the deep water. You're in the shales. You're in the duvernay. You're in the oil sands You're in the unconventionals When you look out and try to decide especially in a 40 dollar market, where you put that money And you look at the maturity of project soft shore versus onshore. How do you make those determinations? Yeah, I think it's a really good question because we have a lot of opportunities in front of us And I think what the shale revolution in in north america has done is Kind of twisted the whole capital allocation issue in companies like mine on its head a little bit And that's because Companies that were pivoted quickly and moved into these opportunities in north america now have a huge investment opportunity in their company But there are different shapes and Different profiles for these opportunities the shale resources. They're very drilling intensive. You get drilling rigs out there. They have Really good Initial rates. They decline really quickly. So you have to keep drilling and keep the manufacturing process going It's about efficiency. It's about capital efficiency And getting those down and they're important part in your portfolio as a company because they generate very significant returns And when you when you hear me talk in our company, we talk about what we refer to as cost of supply You have to explain that a minute It's the old price that it takes to get a 10 after tax return on your invested dollars And what we see is the cost of supply of the unconventionals in north america are very competitive with all the investments That we could be making around the world But if we just made those investments as a company Then we we would be reliant on on one particular geology one geography one product type in one area And and for a company our size with the capitalization with the capacity that we have as a company We we feel like being diverse and global is very important for a company like ours And being part of some of the mega trends that are developing in the world today, whether it's deep water Arctic l and g unconventionals So in our company we think having a diverse opportunity set to allocate the capital across Is very important in the in a volatile world that we see today where differences in brent and wti can blow out Gas becomes cheap in the u.s. But it's worth a lot and if you can supply it to asian markets So having a defer diverse but not diffuse portfolio I think it's important and but as we think about capital allocation You know you need a little bit of all that in your portfolio because Even though they might be lower return investment opportunities in you know all sands or big l and g projects They also last for 40 50 years and they have very little decline because they're backed up by a tremendous amount of resource So having some of that in your portfolio is important as you try to manage Across all the competing metrics in this business and as you do that assessment You look at both the above ground and the below ground and I think that's really important So as you're going globally we start and want to assess the subsurface We want to understand what the risks associated with development are But we have to marry that with the surface risk the fiscal system the rule of law the security situation All those kinds of things come into our calculus as we try to make those decisions as where to spend the capital So one of the questions the washington community frequently asks is how resilient At a 40 or 50 dollar price is the u.s. Industry and we had spoken earlier about investment decisions and dollars spent in 2012 13 and 14 Kind of set the stage for where you are 2015 2016. Can you talk about that lag a bit? Yeah, so we we talked a little bit people are saying well What what will be the rate of growth in the increase in the in the u.s. Production in 2015? As a result of having 40 or 50 dollar prices that we're seeing today And and the reality is the the the rate of growth of the amount of production Probably is not going to be heavily influenced by the price today Because we made investments the last two to three years that are now coming into production in the unconventionals in north american 2015 And 2016 what will happen if lower prices persist is we're very capital intensive business So of all the revenue and you see the numbers that come out of the revenue We get a lot of press for that But the important thing is we and reinvest up to 80 and 90 percent of the money that we make back into the business in capital So we we make a lot of investments and uh, so as as our cash flow comes down as commodity prices come down We have less to invest back into the business and that will impact ultimately the rate of growth in production From the unconventionals But the important thing and I tried to allude this allude to this in my speech Is we do believe the cost of supply in the unconventionals is very competitive To whatever investments most of the investments companies have around the world So even in a you know, they're resilient down to 60 and 70 dollars a barrel Cash break evens are even much lower than that. So these are investments that will continue But certainly as companies have lower less amount of cash to reinvest in the business It will impact the amount of capital that we're going into in the absolute amount of growth We can see over the next couple of years Excellent So I have to make a plug for our program here the last two years We've been looking at an infrastructure project with the belief that even as the EMP side the production side Moves up the supply curve unless you get the infrastructure build out right It doesn't deliver the goods to where you need it and with conico and other company support We've been able to do that But can you talk about the the importance of actually making sure you have attended in support of infrastructure? Yeah, and that's that's an important piece too because you can't go drill the wells unless you can evacuate the product The natural gas And the and the crude oil and the condensate So you look in our business over the last five years There's been a tremendous amount of investment into the midstream what we call the midstream space Into the pipelines and the facilities to move this product from the producing areas To the refining areas and to the places that uh that can consume the product and that's and you'll see that You know the eagleford was built out over the last couple three years The boccan is trying to do that today. We're railing as an industry. We're rating too much Crude out of the boccan we need to get more pipeline capacity in place more midstream Capacity in place to make sure we're doing that efficiently The permeant will be the next spot because that's where this revolution is headed next And even though that's a hundred year old basin that's been producing oil for a number of years Again, the kind of oil that we're going to be producing out of these unconventional rocks is different than what we've been producing out of the Permian for the last hundred years. So we need more gas plants We need more infrastructure to handle the natural gas liquids and the type of product that we're going to be evacuating out of the Permian basin is going to be different And that's what I don't think people appreciate oil is not just oil condensates different than oil And natural gas liquids are different too. We have to put that infrastructure in place to safely evacuate it and get it out Now as we move that bottleneck, that's why exports are important Is we continue to grow our production and we continue to consume the capacity that our refining industry has To take this unique kind of light oil three things are going to happen. We have to shut in production We have to expand refineries or we have to lift the export ban One of those three things have to happen And I think we question whether or not all the refiners will make the expansions necessary to consume the excess volume No one wants to shut in production That's bad for the royalties the taxes everything that the country is making the economic stimulus and the plans So the logical solution is to remove An export ban that was put in place in a completely different time frame for north american for the us And really really modernize that policy To be reflective of what's happening in the industry today Well, it would also be consistent with just americans positioned on free trade Right, we we import and export widgets that we need We import other things that we need that we don't have export what's in surplus and you can talk about the quality And I know you mentioned it in your speech But the fact that we're going to be in surplus with light There's also a global refining industry out there that uses a lot more heavy because that's what we thought we had more of Yeah, I think that's correct. I think as we look at the assessment There's enough capacity for light sweet refining globally We'll consume all that capacity here in the united states But as you look to europe to africa to south america and even over to asia There is spare capacity for refining this light global product So we need to get it into the open market And the best way to stabilize that that global market reduce the ups and the downs that we see And the volatility is to get more supply into the market And I think not only from the trade benefit, but for certainly from easing the volatility of the global markets Getting us crude exported and into that global market is the right thing to do because it'll let the market decide And the market's pretty smart at doing this market knows You know where the imbalances are at in and moving around and again our us refiners have a built-in advantage because it costs Costs extra transportation dollars to move the crude So we are talking about the excess that they can't handle Yeah, and even on the foreign policy side, I mean I always felt that That us light oil by displacing Algerian angolan nigerian that helped ease the burden of the loss of libya because it was light oil You know saudi increase in production offset the loss of iraq So that there's different operations in the market that are and that's where this business is Geoplatics globally interconnected the world's becoming more globally interconnected and by not having all the oil globally interconnected We get those kinds of things But we have done in the us The three million barrels a day that we've increased our production in the u.s Of the slight suite has backed out exactly what frank has said So we're not importing nigerian oil. We're not importing as much angolan oil We're not importing as much saudi light crude middle eastern light crude iraqi light crude And that's what that's been the benefit to this is a more secure supply Here in the us that's backed out foreign imports, but we still want to bring in the canadian heavy We still want to bring in heavy crudes into our refineries because they're tooled up to efficiently run that So that's this this uh Contradiction that that is tough to explain Why we want to export at the same time we want to be imported But it makes imminent amount of sense. It's the right thing for the us to do So every time I listen to you I I get in a situation where I think of other questions, right? So this the net gross issue We tend to talk about us independence energy independence But it's not a net basis we the logical Thought is that we will be importing and exporting to make products that we need and products that the world needs Just because it makes the most economic sense absolutely And I think that's how the markets work and that's not unique to oil Right That's exactly true So in in today's remarks and I've heard you say this before you know We talk about the energy challenges, especially of low price that it's a it's a Two-thirds demand story and a one-third supply story, right? So As as people continue to produce more oil And I suspect going into 2015 to keep Cash flow current folks will try to be as robust as they can Which makes decision situation at least for a while worse or or bad until new demand surfaces or there's a big disruption So this we're going to be living with us for a little while Well, I you know, there's a number of people for the day traders Yeah, a number of people that prognosticate my my crystal ball is probably as clear as anybody's here in the room but I think The supply demand imbalance some will say as high as Two million barrels a day. I think people put it between one and two million barrels per day It's different than what happened to us in 2008 and 2009 So I do think a lot of people are watching the demand side. What happens in europe? What happens in asia? What happens here in the united states? what We've kind of flattened our demand due to the efficiency and And higher fuel standards for our vehicles But the growing demand in asia is really where all eyes are upon it right now to see If we can get back to growth as an industry growth of about a million barrels per day That'll probably consume the excess supply pretty quickly Now if growth is going to maintain at a half a million barrels a day It's going to like take longer to get through the excess supply that's there And and get back to say a mid-cycle equilibrium on price I think 2015 is going to be a difficult year for our business But I think most people would say we start seeing some recovery in 2015 and into 2016 And we talk about a lot of people feel that lower prices are good for the economy generally But there's a difference between the oil and gas industry jobs And the kind of salaries and benefits that they bring versus Not to cast aspersions on a kmart or a restaurant But it's it's a different kind of business and a different salary scale It is I think the jobs that we've added and I quoted some figures 9.8 million jobs The jobs that this industry at are very you know, pretty high paying jobs that come with Pretty significant health and welfare benefits to our employees Retirement benefits to our employees Pretty qualitative 401k plans for employees on top of base salaries that are you know Recognizing the value that the employees bring to the business So the jobs we are creating and the follow on the indirect jobs That support our industry are all very very high paying quality The kinds of jobs that we want to be creating here in the united states And upstairs earlier when you were talking about it's it's actually the best and simplest explanation I've seen about the difference between the source rock and having it migrate into conventional plays But I think it's important because people don't understand what's actually gone on Yeah, and I think that's incumbent on industry to educate a little bit more when we talk about light and heavy crude It's vernacular that we use that we're kind of rolls off our tongue that people really Really may not appreciate, you know heavy crude is a different kind of oil than light crude You know light crude being more similar to what you might put in your engine And heavy crude being something that almost in the ground looks like a hockey puck And uh, so there are oils not oil and as we go into these unconventionals The important thing again the kind of oil that we're producing out of these unconventionals The revolution that we're seeing today the three million Barrels a day of growth is coming this light sweet crude It doesn't take a lot of refining to turn it into gasoline and diesel Heavy crude takes a lot of refining to turn in the crudes are different and in these unconventional plays Not only is it compounded on the different types of black oil In these unconventional plays depending on where you're at in the in the underground subsurface in the reservoir You could have condensate which is something different than oil You could have natural gas and you could have what are called natural gas liquids They're all different product types and they're unique to various spots in each one of these plays So the the the midstream Investments the kind of in refining investments we have to make that's why we have to continue to invest more money To be able to evacuate these specific kinds of products and go to the places that can consume them Either directly or through some refining process and not wait for that complete infrastructure to get built out in the us because it'll It'll it'll it'll throttle back the growth So since we're busting some myths and creating new ones Talk about the conspiracy theories on the lower price in washington I apologize for my voice, but in washington you hear it's it's the us and the soddies conspiring against the russians Or it's the you know the sheiks versus the the shale producers And there's general market explanations for this that are a lot more coherent and and persuasive Well, I think again, I go back to the supply demand Fundamentals today the on the demand side You know we're seeing problems in europe and low growth in europe and we're seeing Moderating growth in in the asian the real developing countries Around asia so there is a demand demand issue demand used to be growing about a million barrels per day That's the kind of a healthy healthy demand and we're off that quite a bit in As we came through the end of 2014 And then with the supply overhang the the increase in the unconventional production libya coming on coming off Iraq has really built up a lot a lot of volume as well That I think there is a there there's a fundamental supply demand overhang There there is more supply than there is demand today and when that happens You fill up storage first and when storage fills up price has to come down So I mean it's it is the market at work now Now others have said, you know What about the saudis and are they trying to send a message to the shale oil production and the growth? I think generally there probably is a concern on the on the saudis part that You know, we're not going to be just the only swing producer not only your other opec countries have to participate And reduce supply, but what about russia? What about the us? What about some of the non opec countries as well? You're you're contributing to the oversupply You know, so we're not going to be the only ones that that make the correction to keep the price up We're going to we're going to we want everybody to participate in that And and we're not going to shed in production here in the us because we're an open free market But we are we're an open free market if we have low prices unless Investment to make it's going to it's going to ultimately moderate the growth that we have in north america as well That's another reason why we have to eliminate the different the the Uh The difference between the wti this this difference due to lack of exports is an artificial difference that's built into our system That doesn't need to be there And and because we have that artificial difference due to the lack of exports It's going to reduce the price going to reduce the amount of cash flow companies get the amount of money We can reinvest and keep keep keep it growing and keep keep it going So but the real trade off is going to be we needed a surge of demand to wipe away the surplus Because if people people keep producing and there's 500 000 barrel a day over and each and every day over Hang that it just prolongs that Yeah, I think on the front of me. That's right. I think it's we need to see the demand demand increase and The longer the price stays low there will be some supply impact But it's but I think we're all looking to see where where demand goes in 2015 and 2016 Does it get back to more of a normal kind of does the whole globe the the economy of the whole globe start to grow again Maybe similar to what we're experiencing here in the u.s I've got six more pages of questions, but I've always been told that I have to include everybody else So the only questions you're the only requirements we have To do this here is if you'll identify yourself Wait for the microphone because we've got a big crowd And then you can make a comment But if you can pose your question in the form of a question that's always appreciated and we will start with yon back I'm sorry Thank you. I'm paul cadario from the university of toronto. I'd be interested sir in your On your reaction to the possibility that lower Oil and gas prices offered to governments to impose carbon taxes and how that might Change your scenario both in terms of the prospects for the united states and also for the global markets. Thank you So Fine if if prices fall It's an opportunity for the united states and other countries that are concerned about climate change To impose carbon taxes by international agreement or you know, however, that's not going to happen overnight But nonetheless, it's an opportunity And i'm wondering how that would affect the very Rosie and aggressive analysis you've offered. Thank you Well, I think certainly a Cartman tax or something like that will be will be factored into the overall energy energy equation Will have some impact on the pace of development and the and the things that are happening in this industry What I would remind everybody when you look at the macro energy Environment or that the picture both in north america and around the globe What's happened with the shell revolution in the us is we've we flattened the supply curve on natural gas So as you look at the energy picture here, look at what we've done to greenhouse gas as an industry just over the last five years We've taken the co2 footprint in our industry in the u.s. Down to 1970 levels You know which which the Kyoto protocol envisioned or imagined a few years ago that we didn't think was even possible So I think when you look at the macro and the total energy footprint in the total energy environment It has a place to play in a role to play in that and I think we're playing a very Very active role in that also on on the debate with with climate and carbon Okay, we have senator johnson up here in the front Bennett johnson The white house recently Facilitated the redefinition of some of the light ends as being eligible for export as refined products some say Up to a million barrels a day John Podesta white house chief of staff was quoted as saying that satisfied his appetite for exports my question is Does that cure the problem and if not why not? You know, it's a it's a help senator. It It does alleviate a problem that we're experiencing the upper texas gulf coast and again I I go back to the geology and the the nuances and the specifics of some of the developments We have the eagleford formation that we're developing in the in the country is is condensate prone So it does does help that I question whether we'll ever grow to a million barrels a day of condensate production But so it helps but it doesn't solve the problem It doesn't answer the issue that that we're going to have coming at us As a nation with growing light black crude that our refineries cannot refine So while it's a help it by by no stretch Solves the problem for us. We have to address the bigger issue Okay, we're running out of time. So I'm going to take three questions quickly. We'll go one in the back second row third row here And then you sir, right Alan Keith sweater with dentins My question is how can a one or two percent increase an overproduction Produce of 50 percent or greater decrease in prices. It seems to be a disproportionality Uh, yeah, it's a it's a really good question. I think um, you know, that's the The volatility that we see in the business and uh, I would say most of us in the industry are surprised that It's fallen as hard and as fast as it has so, um Don't know if I have a really good answer to that question other than that It doesn't feel like the fundamentals would support that that kind of a fall Um, what you worry about when it does that is That it comes back faster on the other end similar to what it did in 2009 coming out of the recession People were worried about the global economy prices went to 30 40 dollars a barrel and you know, just a matter of months Later was back to a hundred dollars a barrel and I think that That's the kind of volatility that we're in when we see these imbalances that create that are created even though they're relatively small and in absolute terms as you Is you so rightfully quote But so I don't have a really good crisp answer. I just know that uh that volatility is there It is a commodity when demand picks up You know the old adage the best thing for low oil prices or low oil prices because you know, they they do come back It is a commodity when demand picks up and the supply and demand balance is not that significant And we have seen this before. I mean it's under different conditions, but it's not a new phenomenon Okay, that's the second row up here third row Hi, Eric Hansen a master's graduate from george washington university Um, given the outlook that you just gave on the energy market in the united states What role do US energy companies play in exploration and extraction endeavors in the arctic? And as is does it make economic sense and are there any strategic or geostrategic implications to that? Yeah, so the arctic is uh is an area that's uh quite resource rich and it's uh, it's prone So companies do look at it. We we've been operating for our company in particular I've been operating for over 40 years up in the north slope of alaskas We have a lot of arctic experience what I would tell you is that you know, we as a company I think otherwise other other companies look at it and say these are these are long life opportunities We have to take a very long-term view of the oil price when we're making decisions about Participation in the arctic it has a place to play in the role and the whole energy scheme and and the development We've demonstrated that we can do it. Well, we've done it well for the last 40 years. We know how to do it Um, I think it'll play an important role But it has to compete and that's what the unconventionals have done for Companies that are that have a position in the unconventionals It's raised the bar on every other portfolio every other asset in your portfolio So when when the when it comes time to allocate capital It has to compete it has to compete on returns It has to compete on another basis and some of the arctic is a little bit higher cost And there's and not all the arctic is the same So there's kind of tier three arctic that is uh, you know frozen in doesn't have seasonal access There's seasonal access arctic and then there's sort of the northern part of the barren sea kind of arctic That's open year around so even not all the arctic is is the same But what I tell you is in every company's portfolio I know they're looking at it to make sure it competes on a cost-to-supply basis And it will have a part in the energy mix, you know, if you think broadly over the next 30 40 50 years Well and because if you look at the conventional decline we need to replace what four and a half million barrels a day just to Yeah, yeah, this business is a declining business So we have to not only replace the decline but grow right to to meet the growing demand Okay, and then the fifth row on this side Fernando But we have two there, okay, so Go ahead And then if you'll pass the microphone directly in front of you, that'll be great Daniel bloom from thank you roll call the obama administration came out with its plan to regulate methane today Ambitious target of 45 reduction below 2012 levels within the next 10 years Can you talk about how that's going to affect your business operations and specifically your investment portfolio moving forward? Well, I Don't know the I can't really comment specifically about the investment portfolio will need to see the rules I don't you know, I guess they're coming out later this year. I'd say a couple things maybe to that I'm a little disappointed that the voluntary program didn't get a little bit more airplay I think industry's already doing a lot of things to voluntarily Deal with the with the methane emissions problem And so we'll have to we'll have to see what how the rules come out and how they're How they're problemated over the over the course of the next year, but We're we're incentivized to deal with methane emissions. We want to keep it in the pipes keep it in the vessels Because it's a sellable product So industry is working pretty hard to to make sure that we do the right things and we and we we attack the methane emissions Okay Hi, jeff epping with ended just lc Um, we talked about the arctic. Uh, maybe we can go to the other end of north america or at least opposite north slow Mexico, how does Mexico fit into the north american story? Well, I think it's got some huge potential. I think uh, it's I think They're making all the right statements and moving to open up and try to attract Foreign direct investment into Mexico and I think that's all a really good thing It goes similar to the arctic question I think The the the question we would have is just they need to make it competitive with the investment alternatives The companies have north of the border either in the Gulf of Mexico in the deep water province or in the shale or the The onshore developments to Mexico. So they have a they have a huge opportunity in front of them to really attract foreign capital where companies like mine will bring our people our talent our technology our capital Um, it does have to compete on a global scale. It has to compete against all the other Opportunities that companies have in their global portfolio. That's not the same for everybody People are in a little different spot there But certainly companies like ours that have north american unconventional opportunities sets, you know, the bar is pretty high But I think this does represent an interesting opportunity for the industry They've got their resource rich country as well and there's some things they can do and are doing today To to attract that investment. So I think I'm I'm looking forward to those opportunities and the opportunity to go participate in Mexico Does the lower price environment allow them to roll this out a little slower and maybe think through Pieces or is the politics too difficult? You know, I it's a good question frank. I don't I don't know specifically I think it probably just does give them a little bit of pause for concern In terms of how rapidly they want to attract investment How quickly it'll come at these kinds of commodity prices. It would certainly come quicker at higher and higher prices. So Okay, we'll take one more question and we'll go on this side It's you. Yeah, it's coming Fernando just got a fit bit for Christmas and he's up to 2,000 steps Lee fong from the nation magazine. Um, mr. Lance, uh, how serious do you consider the threat of man-made climate change? and one other question the The latest congress seems to be very sympathetic to many of your legislative priorities such as the approving the keystone excel Did you or your company? Give any donations campaign donations to the big undisclosed Groups that were very active in the election last year these so-called 501c4s or c6s Well, we we publicize all our contributions. You can go find them on our website or you know with congress and what they What what they publicize to so you can go see where where we where we where we invest our money I would say yeah, I mean we're all concerned about what's happening in terms of the Climate change and the debate that's going on in the in the world today not only here in the united states It's impact on the energy energy community I would say our business is doing a lot to invest in In in in the business to make it more sustainable whether it's the oil sands whether it's Gulf of Mexico Deep or the rest of the unconventionals we're reducing our footprint We're we're cleaning up the product We're cleaning up the air. We're reducing fugitive emissions We're concerned about greenhouse gases and and we're doing that as an industry and I don't think my own personal mole I don't think we get a near enough credit for some of the things that we are doing In this business and I think it it has made an impact You look at the co2 In the air and you look at the the carbon footprint today It's much less than it was four or five years ago and directly attributable to the natural gas production that we've produced as a country Well, this is part of your gas story So as regulatory cost comes on but the natural gas piece and the benefit to refiners is a feedstock and a fuel and manufacturers That's been terrific story Absolutely One of the ways we get folks like ryan is that we have promised to get them out by a certain time There is a press briefing or separate questions upstairs and for those of you going to that if you can wait by the elevator bank But the rest of you if you'll join me In in thanking ryan for taking the time to do this because this has been spectacular And we can go back anytime. Thank you. Thank you