 Thank you for joining us today. I'm very excited and honored to be on stage with three of The greatest kind of experts on this region who know it quite intimately. So we're in for a treat and looking at Tough question an old question To see if there's a new take on this so before we start we are going to Pull the audience on a question if you could turn your attention to the television screens on either side of the stage The question that I want all of you to think about is Which of these options would be the most effective solution to Afghanistan's current problems? a Negotiations between the Afghan government and the Ghani administration with the Taliban B ensuring free and fair presidential elections in 2019 Or see complete withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. So take a minute and Think about this and to join the polling session, please text future of war 2018 to 22333 Some of you may have already done this And then to respond to the question, please choose your answer. Yes or no and text it to 2233 and Everyone's answer will be anonymous We spent years thinking through this so You only get 30 seconds. Good luck Okay, are we good? So clearly we have a tough conversation ahead of us This isn't a question that as I mentioned is is new to our community And I I do think that there's no better better panel suited than this one They know the region really well through different times of conflict and transition and Political kind of environments and I think that's really important when looking at the issue of Afghanistan that we See it from a multi-dimensional perspective not just kind of from the military perspective if you will We have Candice Rondo with us. She's a professor of practice at and a senior fellow at Arizona State University Yanni Koskina's who's a senior fellow here with New America in the international security program and CEO of the Hoplite Group and Ambassador Robin Raefel who's a senior associate at the project on prosperity and development at CSIS And just just for kind of reference and to put it this issue in the current context Recently in the New York Times former national security advisor Susan Rice Wrote an op-ed which said President Trump needs to acknowledge that the longest war will go on much longer And some of you may have seen a BBC report that Noted that the Taliban fighters are present in over 70% of the country And there's also a growing sense amongst experts and analysts that the war in Afghanistan is unwinnable now all of these impressions that are out there in our kind of mainstream political culture would suggest that Afghanistan is already lost and So that's that's what we're gonna talk about today And when I talked to all the panelists before and they they all have very different views on this But they all started with the same kind of Sentiment that this is a country of so many million people and we have to think about it in much more in-depth And so I appreciate that and I'd like to start with Candice who'd spent several years living in Kabul as the Washington Post Bureau chief and she has a really good kind of on the ground take on this question Yeah, it's a tough question because you know There's always a temptation to go back and kind of rehash You know the elements of the conflict and I think you know most people in this audience kind of know the elements We're at a stage now where we hear continually not just you know analysts and experts talking about You know the need for political settlement. We just heard today You know even general Mcconville make reference to the fact that political settlement is something that has to be prioritized at some stage So I think we're at that stage now. I think we've been probably at that stage for a couple of years We weren't I think a few years ago when some of the initial attempts to sort of elevate the conversation with the Taliban You know with the opening of the office in Doha and so forth. We weren't there You know in 2012 for lots of different reasons But it is certainly time to talk and it's it's definitely time to get ready to talk And what that means is you know for the United States what it means is really prioritizing You know setting up a negotiating team Making sure that they understand for the the parameters the objectives The interests of the United States and what's achievable in you know given circumstance given capacity Given the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan today and also on the other side of the border of course in Pakistan You know and then we come to Pakistan where I think you know it's clear that Pakistan needs to get ready to talk to and You know Pakistan that may mean relinquishing to some degree some of its commitments to using the Taliban to solve its tariff and trade problems to solve its water management problems to solve its border problems To the degree possible. They really have to start looking at diplomatic engagement as as the first track toward solving those problems as opposed to Funding the insurgency across the border And then for the Taliban, I mean, I think there's a really serious question for them Years ago when I was working for the international crisis group You know, I was asked to do a report on you know The state of negotiations of the prospect of a political settlement And the one thing I came away with then that I still think applies today You know five years later six years later Is that the Taliban do not yet have the capacity to act as honest negotiators at the table? We've seen, you know You know the efforts in Doha we've seen various sort of moments in Paris where we've had it or in Beijing in China Japan as well where we've had Taliban representatives come forward To negotiate or at least begin discussions on de-escalating the conflict But they're not they're not open They're not honest and they're not real about their own commitments I think it may be that the Taliban Currently lack the capacity To engage politically, but they need to be encouraged now But this is actually a political conversation. It's no longer just a military conversation although As I was discussing a little bit with Robin last night You know, there is sort of a mill to mill engagement that also needs to happen So the table I think everybody agrees that now there's a table And that you know, there's a need to sit around the table the shape of the table is more or less I think agreed on which is to say there are a number of stakeholders Regional as well as internal stakeholders who need to be at that table Most importantly, there also needs to be a team negotiators for all of those stakeholders Who are prepared to speak on behalf of their given organizations and interests at this stage The Taliban are really the weakest link in that regard They need to come out of the shadows and sit at the table properly Thank You Candice Yanni, I'd be interested in your take on the question, but also in reaction to Candice's comments. You spend a Good amount of your time in Kabul currently I'd be curious to hear your take on if the Taliban is ready to negotiate. Should we negotiate with them? Etc. Yeah, I mean first of all To answer the question. I I don't think that Afghanistan has lost But more importantly, I think Afghanistan is winnable It's We have to define what winning is about. I think if you start with the basic construct of Maintaining a safe Environment in Afghanistan to the point or some sort of balance that that does not allow Terror groups to operate out of there That's about as good as we're gonna get in the near term So that's in somehow a winning You know stabilization Platform that we should be aiming towards the unfortunate thing is that Terrorist groups are operating out of Afghanistan and we have to maintain the the effort there For quite a bit longer that perhaps were willing to accept right off the bat And and that's part of the the the challenge that I would throw out to to the audience and to the policy Groups that may be paying attention to this. We need to stop looking for silver bullets You know the the fast track to losing weight the easy way of Becoming, you know the you know gaining back the hair that you lost all these things are not gonna happen Okay, when it comes to Afghanistan, this is gonna take a long time The Taliban with respect. I don't think are remotely ready to to talk the talk we want They're not prepared to address The the topics that we want them to address. They are focused on regime change There the they are Focused on changing what they consider is a puppet government in Kabul they are focused on Any by any means necessary which means, you know throwing bodies they don't care They're not tired. They're not having recruitment issues no matter what we want to say because the fact is the attacks are Continuing the attacks are ongoing. So The violence levels remain at extreme levels So I don't I don't see the facts sort of laying out now I'm not suggesting because I think Candace is exactly right. We should maintain a dialogue a mechanism of talking But I just want the expectation management to stay Realistic in the sense that this isn't gonna get us there. So when General Conville says Look, we're helping them to lower their casualties So they can actually, you know reach a negotiated negotiated settlement. That's not tomorrow That's not, you know a year from now. That's not even three years from now So it's somewhere out there. It's like, you know, there used to be a joke with with Army soldiers getting in a 15-packs van and the and the joke would be, you know How many how many army soldiers do you fit and aren't in a 15-packs van? Then the answer is one more, you know, it's not 15 So so we need to make sure that we don't put these, you know kind of Parameters around Unrealistic parameters because it gets us in trouble and if I may I'll just throw out some facts real quick and then I know I want to toss it over to Robin obviously 2017 we were we started this new strategy, okay The new strategy of supposedly no timelines Condition based all this other stuff, but the reality is we have conditions, you know And we're not meeting those conditions and the timelines are gonna creep up on us We have 2018 parliamentary elections that were supposed to be held in 2015 We have 2018 mid-term elections here that may change the dynamics in Congress We have 2019 presidential elections in Afghanistan if they are held as on time That is about the time that we're starting the presidential season for the US here So things can change President Trump made a choice perhaps not even his first choice of Inserting more troops and supporting the mission in Afghanistan that can change So I'll leave this portion of the talk and I hope obviously the questions come By saying we have to meet return on investment at every turn because the timing is crucial and the clock is ticking I Think what's apparent in Candice's views and then what Yanni said was that there's this intense debate going on It has been going on for a while over Whether you can talk and fight at the same time and we've never truly within the policy establishment I don't think we've truly reconciled ourselves to kind of which approach to pursue and there have been fits and starts So you sum that up really nicely and also I appreciate your comment on kind of the political cycle both in the region And also in the United States. I think many of us Feel that the previous kind of attempts to negotiate have been hijacked if you will Or you know overtaken by political events that which I think is normal in foreign policy But it's just I think it needs to be said so with that Allow me to turn over to Ambassador Raifel who has some very nuanced and Honest views about how we might actually start having these kinds of conversation Conversations but also just in general on the question. We'd like to hear your take. Okay. Thank you very much Shamila well on the basic question of whether Afghanistan has lost I would agree with the other panelists No, it's not lost unless you think that the definition of lost is a failure to Totally defeat the Taliban. That's not gonna happen. So if so If if that's your definition, then I would say Afghanistan is lost, but I don't think that's the right question I think the really the right question is how you re-energize efforts towards a political process so that Afghanistan can move forward To a political resolution of this conflict. We all say or almost everyone says there's no military solution But we have thus far failed To really act decisively on that that perspective on that point of view that there is no military solution So what do we need to do to move forward? First of all, we need to be much more dispassionate and honest with ourselves about the situation in Afghanistan The current structure of the Afghan government in the Constitution is not perfectly suited There are definitely some adjustments that could and need to be made there The Taliban as distasteful as it is and its policies are are part of Afghan society They do have some real support in certain parts of the country So further demonizing them only makes it more difficult to launch a peace process process and we can't really Bludgeon the Taliban to the negotiating table I think we need to be honest with ourselves that there are our elements in Afghanistan who benefit from the status quo There's a war economy a lot of people are making a lot of money and we need to be aware of that We need to be aware that we can't really fast forward the development of Afghanistan with money alone we've thrown a lot of money at this problem the result has been a lot of Corruption and as we say the war economy So we need to really redefine in our own minds Certainly with the help of the Afghans. What is the center of gravity of the body body politic in Afghanistan? That's where we start and how do we move forward from there towards a political process We need to be aware that Pakistan has legitimate security interests in Afghanistan Pakistan is not out to destabilize Afghanistan their concern is Primarily about what India is doing there the whole issue of facing India on two fronts You can say what you want about that with how legitimate it is, but in the Pakistani mind. It's clear We have to recognize that this conflict is multi Layered there's the internal aspect to it the political internal Afghan parties, but there are also the regional aspects Pakistan India Central Asia Iran and then there's the international aspect the Coalition the United States Europeans China and so on so it's complicated and there are many levels and that means That the overall Resolution on the political side cannot be Afghan-led You need some kind of third party to help bring all of these multiple levels together in a political process and Finally, I'd say we need to recognize that time is not on our side the more time that goes by The more insurgent groups that get involved in the beginning. It was the Taliban now You've got ISIS and as our military commanders say there are 20 other groups there as well And you've also got other governments involved. You've got Iran. You've got Russia China. Everybody's looking to their interests now So it gets more complicated as time goes by so the sooner the better And I'll stop at that. Thank you Robin Candice from your vantage point of being somebody who has reported from Kabul for several years during a time when the conflict was fairly intense How would you? Look at this issue of negotiations with respect to what Robin just said about the role that Pakistan has to play or that has played Historically and their interests. Yeah, that's a good question. I first. I want to second Robin's point on the need for a third-party interlocutor to manage the process of trying to reach a political settlement I also want to address Johnny's points as well, you know as per where the political settlement You know lies today and when the Taliban are ready. Yes, it's clear. They're not ready But the point is to get ready, right? And so we can imagine that this this like the process in Ireland like the process in Columbia Is going to take many many years now that there seems to be a general consensus That political settlement is something that we must reach at some stage or another You know, we should expect that like Columbia like Ireland We're going to spend another five ten years Trying to reach that settlement and that it will have multiple parts and it will not look like Dayton at all So having said that on the Pakistan question You know, it is also true that India and the rivalry with India is is absolutely critical to understanding the tensions But it's also important to understand the historical tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan over the borders You know, we tend to kind of you know get involved in the sort of Thinking, you know deep thoughts about India and Russia and all these other larger players But the border issue between Afghanistan and Pakistan is quite serious and it has been since 1973 actually since 1948 You know that that historical Dividing of what would be called Pashtunistan You know it has led to a lot of strife in both sides of the border and So You know, there's I think a need to sort of prioritize that in a very pragmatic way in the diplomacy There are some very tactical steps that Any team, you know, whether it's a US team or another is going to have to grapple with And I would say the first thing that needs to happen is just attend the borders. That means Really grappling with the issue of water management, which is a very serious issue That you know that Afghanistan has yet to solve by that you might be able to sort of stand up a Commission a joint commission a quadrilateral commission between the bordering states where there are these challenges Iran Tajikistan Pakistan and Afghanistan The water issue is serious and it is what drives a lot of the conflict Lastly on the on the border issue I think you're gonna have to talk about the transit of people and goods And we know that the Afghanistan Pakistan trade and tariff agreement is not yet complete in many ways There's still a lot of work to be done there It has to be treated seriously as part of this pragmatic pragmatic approach to diplomacy but for the the Taliban Really, you know, we gave them an office. It's now for the time for them to also give us a point of contact It's really critical that they they sign a point of contact for civilian casualty issues and that that person is not Zabihullah Mujahed Okay, it's really important that we have somebody assigned for water management and border issues And that person is not Zabihullah Mujahed It's really important that returnees and refugees have a representative and that person is not Zabihullah Mujahed It's lastly most important that on constitutional and electoral issues and political participation For which the Taliban cries out whether they imagine an emirate or not Their representative cannot be Zabihullah Mujahed It's time for them to come out of the shadows and begin taking ownership of their their political ideology and stop killing people You know with with the sort of emptiness of their sort of political content One final follow-up question for Yanni before we open it up to the audience Both Robin and Candace focused a lot on process and policy and the kind of the technical aspects of Negotiations but Candace ended her remarks with kind of a nod to Something else which is the sentiment amongst the public and how people feel about the Taliban as representatives of the Afghan people or As members of the government given all of this kind of brutal history that we've we've witnessed and so because Yanni Lives in Kabul most of the year. I want him to give us a sense of what is life like in Kabul right now What are Afghans thinking about when they think about the Taliban potentially coming back into positions of power and negotiating with the government? First of all, they're terrified. I think the people I talked to not just in Kabul, but elsewhere are really scared with some of our Quite frankly irresponsible conversations The notion that that somehow some way Everybody in DC and and unfortunately it reverbs, you know to the other spots around the planet is Talking about this, you know, every article Talks about reconciliation as the answer every article, you know, talks about It's time to make a deal with the Taliban no matter not with the nuance that that Candace is thrown out but but with this sort of You know bullet statement time to make a deal and they're worried Immensely over this because they think that's our get out of here Event, you know, that's the the helicopters on top of the Saigon, you know, embassy That's that's that's to them an abandonment message And let's be honest also about this We we have an example of so-called reconciliation that of irresponsible reconciliation when you bring in go but in heck material into Afghanistan a guy that was Responsible for enormous damage not to say that others have not been responsible for enormous damage that in fact maybe part of the Government or may in fact, but they've reconciled and joined the government this guy has come back and is trying to displace a his bizlami party that has been part of the Afghan process and Assume once again his Missianic sort of leadership role Which was in no small part part of the problem that drove us to civil war in the 90s So we we are so we appear whether or not we really are it is a subject for another debate but we appear desperate to make this deal and and quite frankly that's a Desperation that comes out to the Afghans it they they they hedge their bets People that may be corrupt figure that I'm gonna eat as much as I possibly can right now Because the time is is cut you know getting loose people think well, you know, it doesn't matter I mean what however hard I try I'm not gonna you know get to a realistic spot because everybody wants to make a deal So I guess the point that I'm trying to make with this particular thing is we again I'm a theme guy so return on investment has to be you know where we're delivering on some of the promises that we're Making and also being realistic a acceptable Sort of situation in Afghanistan for us is not gonna happen through Peshawar Islamabad Raul Pindi New Delhi any of these places it's gonna happen by strengthening the Afghan government and creating a Circumstance there that they can fend for themselves that is the only answer the rest of it is as far as I'm concerned icing Okay, I lied because I want to ask Robin one I want to give you a chance to follow up. I want to ask you one more thing related to this What do you do with this kind of sentiment as a diplomat if you were constructing these negotiations? Surely these these views would be part of it would be a consideration for negotiators Could you comment on absolutely? Of course they are but I think they represent Kabul and not the totality of Afghanistan Secondly, I would say that the Afghan people I think are as angry with their government almost as they are with the Taliban Because this is a mess. They don't feel secure all You know which what Yanni says is true, but it's partly a problem of the governance issue as well as the insurgency a couple of other things one Candace is absolutely right about bilateral Pakistan-Afghanistan issues my understanding is that the the two governments are engaged on a lot of these issues now and should be Encouraged to move forward and and try to resolve some of them And we should help as we can if asked and then finally I would say the Taliban is More ready for negotiations. I believe then is widely perceived Not perfectly ready, and there's certainly the weaker Of all the parties in terms of their ability to you know understand how you Construct negotiations and so on so forth, but I do think they're more ready I think their statement of the 14th of February was more than just a message to the Afghan people and That we need to build on that and we need to build on the Ghani outreach To the Taliban in his speech in Kabul and what? Diplomatically the US should be doing is engaging with all these groups and trying to push towards a consensus Push people together rather than say well if the Taliban doesn't respond or isn't up to it You know that proves they shouldn't participate You've all just witnessed what it feels like to be in every NSC meeting on AFPAC So let's open it up. We have just a few minutes for questions and for the panelists We have Mike renners going around so Peter Commenting question the comment is I think the United States has sort of made a category era that the panel helps elucidate Which is we have focused too way too much on the question of reconciliation Which is kind of so that might take you know might be Northern Ireland standards might be you know It took 50 years with the FARC. This is going to be a long time We have this date certain for this election which may be delayed 2019 if this election does not go well I think our you know our commitment to Afghanistan including with the president and and other Policymakers is going to be hard to sustain if it's it's the election goes as badly as the previous two We have a major problem with that and if we want real national reconciliation in Afghanistan a free and fair election That is somewhat accepted by the people will go much further than some deal with the Taliban that might be 10 years from now So that's that's a comment the the question is But we mentioned we need a third party who is the third party in these negotiations and as part of this deal You know, I think it's not widely understood that the Afghans themselves do not recognize The 1893 Durand line that is the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan This is enormously paradoxical because they're always complaining about Pakistan You know incursions into their country if they can't recognize this International boundary how can you possibly have a deal and is it possible for Afghan policymakers to actually come to the table with that as a potential Deal point Thank you Candice very good points Peter So there's no probably one entity That can serve as a third party obviously the UN you know has some capacity in that regard And should be looked at as sort of a first port of call at least in terms of Managing the process to some degree. I think that's going to be really important But on the border issue actually and this is actually, you know it points up some of the complexity of trying to Both set the table and then make sure everybody gets something to eat along the way You'll need another interlocutor and that will be the International Court of Justice From my point of view at this stage the the challenge around the dispute over the border is so severe That in fact it has to be solved by a third party. There may be some track too Things that can be done along the way to an ICJ Intervention, but you know, we've seen recently with Pakistan in India an ICJ judgment around water use and border issues You know from a dispute that's been going on since 1965 And whether or not Pakistan really you know adheres to all of that nonetheless the judgment is there We've got to have some sort of bright lines and unfortunately none of the parties at the table are really capable of setting those bright lines So we will need probably different avenues of third-party interlocutors to kind of intervene at various points We have time for one more question He's coming Chris Miller Air Force Academy. I'm curious whether the introduction of the the advice and assist concept is being positively or negatively perceived by The Afghan security forces the the Afghans as a whole and the Taliban your perceptions on that I can I can First of all, it's it's long overdue. I think it should have happened a while ago Unfortunately, the announcement came, you know that we're gonna do this last year and as you know the First advisor brigade just arrived So I think we need to give them a little bit of time, but unfortunately, you know, they're they're running right into the Second poppy season is done and they're you know, we're about to get get started again, you know with violence levels So I think that they have a tough road ahead I think the fact that we're giving them new aviation platforms new with bunny ears, but you know Aviation platforms and the advisors to support them in that I think it's immensely Important and it should have happened a long time ago. So again, we have to give them Some time for that to mature It takes a while, but I think it's absolutely the right the right thing to do But again, you know and and these panels are important and and New America has been incredibly supportive of Keeping this in in the forefront. So I I mean it's definitely one of the few that still pay attention to this quite frankly But but but the fact of the matter is we're talking about the Taliban You know unicorns in Pakistan and all the other stuff and then the reality is is that We have an economy that's failing in Afghanistan Because partially it's it's a war economy. We have enormous unemployment problems we have governance is not Have we talked about governance at all in the entire panel, but it's it's an essential Element of what the national unity government was supposed to be about reform and and getting ready for the next sort of elections Down the road and we've not achieved any of those milestones. So I would employ Employer everybody to actually pay attention for the things that we have promised that we're gonna do before we start talking about These mythical creatures that are out there called, you know reconciliation with the Taliban and with respect Robin it isn't just Kabul The the other parts of the country are Even more segregated because they're they're more socially Still challenged with the with the problems of 40 years whereas Kabul has sort of reached some sort of Equalization so with that I've sucked all the oxygen No, you have it Everything that Peter says about the complexity The importance of the elections and all of that is perfectly true And all I would say is as difficult as those issues are they are not beyond the mind of man to move towards Resolution if we get serious about this and us leadership in getting serious is crucial Everybody's sitting on their hands to a degree the Afghan government the Taliban Pakistan and so on because we haven't demonstrated that we're serious And if we do I think we'd be surprised how we could begin to move things And I think it's very important that this start before the election because I think if you had a process going It would set the stage for an election that could be more successful than the last one Thank you so much. Please join me in thanking our panelists for Very interesting conversation