 Welcome to Think Tech Hawaii. This is Thursday, September the 30th, 2021, and you're watching the show, Politics for the People. I'm Stephanie Stoll Dalton, and I'm your host for this weekly show. Now today, we have an assembly of informed guests to discuss USA's leadership, legislation, and governing in politically unruly times. We have now. And in these times, we are looking to see how our leadership fulfills promises and how our president can secure his own legacy. I welcome these guests we have to discuss and analyze these matters. And they are Jay Fidel and Winston Welch and Tim Apachello. So welcome to the program. Thank you. Good. Okay. Now, I said these are politically unruly times in the intro. And I want to note, Jay, do you agree that Biden's infrastructure bill is threatened today due to his lack of leverage, not only over a senior senator, but also a first term senator, and that this contributes to the unruliness of our times? Yeah. I don't think it's going to pass, period. And if you look at what the leadership is saying, I don't think either the $1 trillion or the $3.5 trillion bills are going to pass. But good news, if you guys haven't heard, flash message is that both the Senate and the House have approved the debt ceiling change, and that is on Joe Biden's signature signature. But you know what, I honestly think that's not nearly as important, because that had to happen. You know, all the forces were in play, all the criticism was coming down on them. They had to do it in the Senate, especially. So where are we on infrastructure? Where are we on all of Joe Biden's initiatives? The answer is nowhere. Exactly. It's sad to see the Democrats fighting among themselves, because that's what they're doing. And you know, you can say, well, this is all a minuet, and they've got to get through their contention under the blanket here, but the bottom line is almost October. And what is that going into the 10th month after the inauguration, and we don't have it yet? So with all the news and all the contention, all the unrulyness, as you say, not only with the Republicans and the Democrats, but with the Democrats and the Democrats, it's not going to happen, and Joe Biden is going to lose as a result, and the Democrats in general are going to lose as a result, and that's no less than ridiculous. Well, tell me about the lack of leverage Joe Biden has over these senators, these Democratic senators. So what is contributing to? You mean Manchin and... Yeah, I mean, in the politically unruly times, that means, you know, he's getting a lot of... Well, I think there's much more under the hood that we don't know about. And maybe it's right staring us in the face. It's in plain view with Manchin and what's his name, Kristen Sinema. Those guys are like Republicans and Democrat clothes. They come from Republican states. They have a Republican constituency that they don't want to offend. Maybe they want to please. And they say they're Democrats, but they're screwing up the whole process. The two of them are holding up the country, the democracy, and our economic future. And this goes by day after day. The people who are just watching this casually say, wait, what are they doing? Are they in there to act like legislators, or are they in there simply to delay things until the body of administration falls apart for lack of credibility? And I am beginning, well, more than beginning, I am feeling it's the latter. Whatever their ideological principles are, and I question that, the fact is that their actions belay their intentions. And their intention seems to be very clearly to delay things. And they're doing a good job at that, but they're blowing up the whole system in the process. They forgive them not. Winston, is this a situation that's unforgivable? But is it a situation that still has any room for Biden to team build at this point? Can what, what, what might there be in your, in your thinking? Humble opinion. You know, Joe Biden is, even I think in 2016, there was an interview with Mitch McConnell who said, you know, call Joe. That was like the code word or something along those lines for it's time to make the deal and get the job done. So, you know, these are, well, old colleagues and old colleagues who've worked together over the years to, you know, all these shenanigans that we never know anything about, and the horse trading that goes on, and that's how the business of the nation is done. And that's how it's always been done. We have some wrinkles now that we couldn't have anticipated even five years ago of how this is. Let's just call them wrinkles as euphemistic, more like canyons that you're not careful you fall into and we've fallen into several and there's not just one. Joe Biden is, you know, doing the best he can, as I've said, he's got a lot on his plate. You know, some people were trying to, I saw NBC or I think it was, it called him out for contradicting General Miley and say, oh, about Afghanistan. You know what? The man's allowed to get a couple of details wrong at his position. He's not, he's an honorable person. He's doing the best he can with enormous problems. That said, he's got a lot. But what can he do with mansion and cinema? He's not been able to control them at all. They're not part of his, I don't know how he deals with them, except that perhaps he makes sure that there's special extra allocations to West Virginia and Arizona because maybe that would entice them. I don't know, they're not working for the good of the party. I think he hasn't offered that. I mean, is it possible that he has not offered to grace the pay here? He's definitely got some, you know, step one, step two, step three stuff and they may be waiting for step three for all we know. But you know, as you mentioned, Jay, the debt ceiling deal, that was obviously going to happen. Nobody has an interest in the government shutting down. And if they do, then it would just make Joe Biden look better at the end of the day. So that one went through this other stuff, I would, I'd like to see some action, but you know, we really haven't heard from the progressives very much. They squawked a little bit this week. But basically, they've kept their heads down this whole time. Now there may be a lot of grumbling behind the scenes, but they realize that if they don't get whatever they've got passed and just leave well enough alone, that the whole thing's going to collapse. And I think that they understand that. Well, what will, Tim, what is Biden ignoring or dismissing or not knowing that could save his bills on this round? Let me, let me further fill in the blanks on that answer. First off, let me go back to memory lane. Now I think Nancy Pelosi does a pretty good job. In fact, I think she's known for doing a pretty good job. But there was a day when there was a guy named Tip O'Neill. And Tip O'Neill would have all his new congressmen that had been recently elected. He'd gather them all in one room. And the first thing Tip O'Neill would say is, in the house, if you want to get along, you go along. So it was a basically an introduction to say, I'm running this place, you're not. You're going to step in line and you're going to do my bidding. And those are the days of old politics where it was reeled with a heavy hand. And Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer, they don't have the chops for that kind of stuff. They're very permissive. They're very touchy-feely on what you want and what's going to make you feel good. Well, Tip O'Neill wouldn't be a part of that crowd. And Nancy Pelosi actually is a little more like Tip O'Neill. But it's a matter of saying, stop your personal agendas. We have the nation's business to get done. And you're not falling in line. So they don't call them minority whips, majority whips in the House and Senate for nothing. The operative word is whip. And that means you have to get people to fall in line. And I forget her name, Joe Biapal from Washington. She says she represents 95 other representatives on the progressive side. Time to get her in line. This whole infrastructure deal could be done for $1 trillion. That's called an accomplishment. You work on accomplishments. It's not the whole enchilada at one time. It's like, I'll use a baseball analogy. You could either go for the grand slam and the score is 0-0. Or you could go for a first base or a second base hit. And slowly get on base and slowly score. And that's the problem with this particular administration, is they're going for the big home runs. They're trying to get two major bills done at once. And that's not going to work. Well, let me add this story. When this came up, what, a month ago? Maybe Tim, six weeks ago, when Biden said, OK, we got the $1 trillion and we got the $3.5, and I'm going to link them. The $1 trillion I know I can get through because it's providing pork to everybody. And the $3.5 trillion, I'm going to make that a reconciliation bill. And I'm not going to pass that bill unless I'm not going to pass the $1 trillion bill unless you pass my reconciliation bill. Bad idea, Jay. A really bad idea from the get-go. Really bad idea from the get-go. And that was, if you looked at that carefully, this is a human being kind of person. You said, this is never going to happen. They're never going to let them do that. It doesn't take Mitch McConnell to figure a way out of that box. Anybody could. And I said to myself, and we all talked about it, that this isn't going to work. It's not been done before. It's not going to be done now. Nobody's going to go along with it. And the public is at best going to be confused about it. So where we are now is a culmination of all of that. And PS, it isn't going to work. Bad idea then, bad idea now. The best solution is take the $1 trillion and weigh on the rest of it. And guess what, Jay? The $1 trillion is going to get done. Well, let's see. Jaja Paul and her progressives are going to fall in line. We've just not seen it in the public statements they're making on MSNBC, CNN and the like. They're going to fall in line and $1 trillion gets done. Now, have I ever been wrong before? Absolutely. Will I be wrong on this one? Possibly. Do I think it gets done? I do. So Winston, there seems to be another factor here involved, which is there's a counterplay between cinema and mansion. So mansion has some rationale he offers and it has to do with how much is in the bill. And it seems like nobody really seems to know how much the bill is. So that mansion's point is about that. And cinema seems to have no point. And nobody can suss out, what is her rationale? You saw the piece on Rachel Maddow yesterday. This is quotable for the rest of time. Some reporter asked cinema where she stood on things. And she said, oh, I'm standing in front of the elevator on things. You think about that. It's moronic. Yeah. So Winston, what do you think? What does it mean to you? Or how does it stack up with what you're reading? You know, what I've read about her is it seems that she's sort of into it for self-aggrandizement. There doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason or policy or principle behind it. It might just be a look at me moment. And I don't know, give her a shiny toy or whatever it takes to get it done. We have two people that we need to placate. So placate them. Joe Manson's not a dictator. She's not a dictator. But they do need to be placated. And then move on. And she's already, as people are saying, being primaried or will be soon enough. And a group said and supported her and said, whoa, you got a couple of screws loose there. Like, OK, take a principle. We can understand that. But otherwise, we really don't get what you're doing and why. Joe Manson, he seems to be at least have some basis for his reality of opposing things, whether it's wanting to have an olden day-style Senate where you don't break the filibuster or whether it's that his reality is he's the only Democrat who could be elected in West Virginia in this days in a state where Donald Trump had one of the highest spreads in winning or in losing. I guess he won the state. But he's very popular there. And Joe Manson realizes his politics on the ground. It's very retail and he's popular. But he seems to be a little bit more principled, give him whatever he needs. How many people live in West Virginia? 10 million? I think he's a charade, Winston. He wants to come off as having a certain reasonable element to him. But he's not negotiating. And the result between the two of them, Manson and Sinema, is exactly the same. Whatever their personalities and styles are, they're both standing in the way of a deal. They're both in transit. However you make yourself up in the morning. I got to interrupt Jay, because he has said it very clearly. He goes 3.5 trillions out of the question. He just was quoted that 1.5 trillion is within the ballpark. But also, there's ideas that he's thrown out there. It's called means testing. To say that you're earning $300,000 a year and you're going to get child credit from the federal government that the taxpayers pay for, he doesn't agree for that. Neither do I. So he's talking about means testing and a 1.5 trillion. Remember, one trillion is a million, million. It's a lot of money. Maybe they need to amend this to say that every person who knows anybody who coal mines in West Virginia is going to get a million dollar job retraining and education benefit to be here. Well, there you go, right there. Yes. Something like that. We're going to put jobs in West Virginia. A lot of solar jobs. Maybe the Ford Motor Company wants to put jobs in West Virginia. Talking about two birds here. Biden's got two birds, cinema and mansion. And you're hearing what good stuff is being said here, what Tim is saying and whistling. So what's the stone that Biden has to get two birds with one stone? Well, theoretically, Biden could say, OK, OK, let's do 1.5 and we'll have this metric on people trying to take advantage. And we'll put that in the bill today and get it done. You think you guys think that would end it? You really think that would end it? No, you have Diapole from Washington to say, no, I'm going to hold my breath until I get my 3.5 trillion. No, you don't get to hold your breath, Congressman Diapole, because you're not running the show. Well, exactly. And Tim, when is it going to get down to also punch in these numbers up? Because I'm reading that they're up to $5,000,000, good deal yet, OK, $5,000,000, and it's not 3.5. It's nowhere near 3.5. Whether it's paid for or not, it's not the issue. But of course, that always is an issue, even when it's true that it's already paid for. So what about the numbers? So are they starting to talk about then how much it really is? And then that's the stone, right? Nancy Pelosi needs to channel her inner tipponeal and start cracking the whip on the problems in the House. Right now, it's up to the House. I mean, you have a bill that had 10 Republicans come over to the other aisle and say, we'll support this. And they did. They passed it. They passed a $1 trillion bill. It's in the House, ready to go. Nancy Pelosi needs to channel her inner tipponeal and get Congresswoman Jopiah Paul to get on board now. Well, see, this is the conundrum, OK? Well, you're saying drop the link. De-couple them. Oh. Don't condition one or the other. Yes, decouple it. Yes, decouple it. Absolutely. That would be a huge loss of face for bud. But the problem? Oh, well. But if you want some accomplishment, a little loss of face is going to go a long way. And it's not just loss of face. They may never get back to it. So the hard show is the holding point is that they won't get back to it. If they don't do the vote, it's not going to be. I'm sorry, maybe I've had too much coffee. But our democracy is in play with this. And if we show the world that nothing gets done as a matter of democracy in a democratic process and nothing gets done term after term after term, maybe Trump's supporters go, we'll accept an autocrat, because at least we get things done. And that's starting to look more palatable. That's starting to look more palatable to the American people. Yeah. But my question to you is just suppose for a moment that neither Tripayapal nor Mitch McConnell nor Biden nor any of them have listened to think tech Hawaii. Let's assume that. OK, so the question then is, what is going to happen? Because the reality is, I see it. I'm interested in how you guys feel. The reality is we're going to spin around on this and it is going to dissolve into a liquid sludge and it isn't going to get done. And we aren't going to have either Bill and we are going to suffer mightily. No. It's different. It's different than the debt ceiling where the pressures, political pressures, public pressures are different. But the other Winston answer makes some sense of this. We know that Trump has succeeded enormously because he has insight and talent in one area. And that is that he knows how to use the system against itself. And as a result, what he can do all of that in public because he's using all of the legitimate means. So how does Biden and Pelosi and how did they get smart enough here to be able to do something like that? Winston, do you have any sense of that in your way of? I wish I did because they're not playing with the same set of cards. And Donald Trump is a brilliant politician. He is able to, he's like a masterful storyteller. He tells stories and he captivates his audiences. He bamboozles them. And he channels like as this is this id ego thing where he just says what he wants to say, when he wants to say it, how he wants to say it. There's no repercussions for it. You don't have that coming from the other side. You have sort of rational, sane, thoughtful people trying to have a conversation with those that are not but are under a spell of one person, really. But there's been a lot of buy-in. This is not just Donald Trump. As you see in the polls that have come out, there was one that I was seeing that now was commissioned by John Bolton's Super PAC. But it said that Ron DeSantis was essentially tied with Donald Trump now in popularity in Florida. Whether that's true or not, the point is that we have unleashed in our nation to sort of this say anything, do anything. And it doesn't matter. I got mine. And the sort of good of the nation and good for all of us has been sort of tossed out. And we need to regain that sense. That's where we need to go back. And I think there's a lot of disenfranchised former they call themselves Republicans because they don't have a place to go anymore, but they are Republicans and they're principled Republicans. They're conservative people in our society who believe perhaps differently than we might on certain issues, but they need a place to call home. And someone's gonna give them a home, whether it's a Liz Cheney or a Kitzinger or somebody else like that, but they will find that home. And these other forces out there can take the party where they wanna go and maybe it leads to some schism. Maybe they join Democrats. Maybe we'll break into five different parties in this nation. I really don't know what will happen, but I wouldn't predict the latter, but it would be an interesting choice. There's a question from Chuck. So let's see, let's see, Tim, the question is, besides Biden's push, who else needs to step up and what needs to happen to get the funding and voting legislation passed? Well, I've kind of said that already, but let me put a little more twinkle dust on it, if you will. Getting these senators and House representatives to fall in line isn't just a matter of incentives and what can we do for your district to make you feel better? Winston in the past has said a golden toilet in every household in West Virginia. Incentives are one way of doing it, but also disincentives. It's a very effective means of getting people to fall in line to vote for a bill. And if that means that the DNC is gonna retract any and all every dollar for your reelection, so be it, pull it. If that means what Donald Trump's playbook is, I'm gonna put another candidate in there and run against you and fund them graciously and have them out run youth because they're just gotten so much campaign dollars from the Democratic Party and that's what we're gonna make happen. So it's a combination of incentives and disincentives that makes this thing happen. Joe Biden doesn't know how to make a disincentive because he doesn't have a mean bone in his body, but... But that's politics, okay? And that's what this is about. And I have talked to Republicans and they've said that what happens is they take them in that room with that major leader that you referenced earlier and they say, did you know that we can put out stories on all of you, on all of these things that are behind the shield here that nobody knows about under the radar? And if you don't cooperate, I mean, this is getting now down to like the dirty trick stuff. And the Republicans, that's what they do according to the Republicans. That is what they do. And I'm not saying that's what Democrats should do, but there is certainly the pathway to say, okay, you're going out on your own, you're really bucking against the entire Democratic administration here. We're not going to fund you in the future. And you'll see how far that gets you in your reelection process. So that's not dirty tricks. That's just saying we decide where the money goes and to which candidate receives it and you're not going to get any more. So, you know, think about that before you get on CNN and MSNBC and say, how you're going to hold your breath and hold the whole entire process hostage. Think about that before you get on next time. Well, you know what, Jay, does Biden have, well, I was going to say the credibility, does Biden have the, I don't want to say bad words, does Biden have the strength? Can he pull his strength up to prevent this dissolution? Yeah, Stephanie, I think that's a really excellent question. If we were starting here on January 20th and Biden set up a tough tone, the kind of tone that Tim is talking about, Tip O'Neill tone, if you want, you know, then that would have set the stage for a lot of things. But instead, he's been Mr. Nice Guy. And that's to his credit, of course, but it's not the Tip O'Neill style. And the question is two questions inherent in that. And this is more like social psychology. Number one is, does he have the strength? He's been making deals and compromising and capitulating all his professional life for decades. Does he have the strength now to take a hard position and push people around and make this happen in the way that Donald Trump or Tip O'Neill might do it? And the answer is, no, we know him. We've watched him every day. We've heard all his moves. And the answer is he's not like that. He's Mr. Nice Guy. The other question is, even if he were, even if he were able to change his tune and be tougher, the public sees him and his adversaries and other people in the political universe in Washington, they know what he is like we do. They know what his inclinations are. They know he's a Mr. Nice Guy. It's not like he could change midstream. He cannot change horses now. He is what he is. So even if he changed his mind and said, I better do Tip O'Neill or for that matter, Donald Trump, nobody's gonna believe it. And they're gonna figure at the end of the day, Joe Biden is gonna do his natural thing, which is Mr. Nice Guy. That's why my prediction, which is still logistic, it's logical, is that, yes, we could find a way out of this, but the reality is we're not gonna do it because we don't have the, may I say, leadership either in the Democratic Party or in the executive. And for that reason, it's not gonna work. Okay, let's go one round to finish off here briefly each. But one of the things we do have in Biden is smart. He's a smart guy, okay? So back to the point about Trump and his using the system to get his way, think in your last comments about those two factors that he is smart, experienced and knows the system. So can he think about it in terms of using it favor? So what do you think, Winston, for your last comment? I think we need to let Joe Biden be Joe Biden, do what he does best. We elected Joe Biden to be Joe Biden. And so while there's obvious drawbacks to not carrying the big stick in this and wielding it, let's see how this plays out. And it may not be that everything gets done, what's wanted to be done, but there's a good chance that he's gonna make some deals right here at the very end and horse trade, as he always has, and produce some good effect for America and its people and all of its people. He is the president of the United States and all of the people in it. He's not a blue president and he's not a red president. He is the president. And I think if people can look to that and see that and understand that, that helps his credibility with the people that he's got to work with. And that includes, especially, Systema and Manchin. Yep. All right, Tim. You know, remember back in 2007, in the financial institutions in the United States around the world were crumbling. And President Bush said, I'm gonna create what is called TARP and that is a bailout for financial institutions. As critical as that was, that time, I mean, dire times, the bailout package was 780 billion. So let's fast forward to 2021. Who in their right mind and reality thinks without any fight or conflict that they're gonna pass a $3.5 trillion wish list of social programs? Only in your wildest dreams would you think that's gonna pass without being negotiated or cut back. And again, I'm gonna blame, I'm gonna blame the progressive Democrats on this. They cried that, well, we were at $6 trillion and we cut it down to 3.5. Well, what planet are you living on that you think that $3.5 trillion is gonna sail through Congress without getting cut back? So my answer is the Gejiapals of the world need to look at reality and say, let's get something done. 1.5 trillion, still a major, major accomplishment. Plus, don't forget the $1 trillion on hard infrastructure stuff. That's $2.5 trillion. Yeah, Jay, okay, wrap it up, Jay, yeah, on your last comment. Okay, well, I like to integrate on a lot of the things that we've said here today and that's this. If you take the face element out of this and you just talk about a rational negotiation, then what you're talking about is a number that is somewhere between 1.5 and, what is it? 3.5 and closer to 1.5, honestly. And you satisfy other non qualitative elements of the bill, then what you get is everybody gets a certain amount of face and there's a bill with a lot of social benefit in it. And the two bills are linked and they do pass. This is a rational approach. People will lose face on it, but the progressives will have to capitulate. But bottom line is that's what should happen in an objective negotiation going forward. And we have to get to that. The problem is that face and politics are linked. Everybody has staked out territory. And for that reason, although I think that's the solution, I'm not all that optimistic. But that is getting, I think, Tex Machete out for them to show them how they can chop their way through in a manner that is truly negotiation and capitulation and letting go of your darling. So there is a way to get through and that's a hopeful ending to the program. So it is a low hot time and we'll have to wrap it up. This is Think Tech Hawaii. And this show is Politics for the People. And thanks to the panel of guests, Tim Apachello, Winston Welch and Jay Fiedel for their informative conversation. And I'm Stephanie Stull Dalton, your host for Politics for the People. See you next week, Thursday at the same Hawaii standard time. Mahalo everyone and thank you and aloha. Aloha.