 Hey traders, this is Tosh I go by T Bradley 90 in the my investing club chat a general reminder for those who do not know MIC is having a one-year anniversary event where bow is going to be trading live in front of our members It's coming up August 17th mark your calendars as an added benefit for our members The event is 100% and exclusively free for annual and lifetime members While lifetime on top of that get extra coaching before the event and guaranteed front-row seating While most charged for these events we show our support by making it again Free for annual and lifetime members if you are interested in signing up for this event DM T Bradley 90 in M. I see slack chat and or email myself at Tosh at my invest in club comm Now we have a very special video for you guys this week as Austin who goes by a loha trader does a member Webinar every single Thursday at 7 p.m. Eastern Standard Time This is going to be episode 9 where he talks about conviction and data tracking tutorial with our other head Moderator Joseph Kelly and while today is just a preview of the almost two and a half hour webinar If you want to watch the full-length video or any of our exclusive content that become an MIC member This one's gonna be a special one guys. We got Joe As a guest speaker this time still gonna give everyone the normal five minutes to be late And then we'll get started. Oh Yeah, I'm gonna conviction is gonna be then the theme of this webinar so A lot of people have you know questions like how do I be convicted? What's the difference between being convicted and being stubborn right like we're gonna go over all that at the end but first Let's go through the lineup All right, so today If this is your first webinar, I usually do an order of operations for all of the webinars What we're gonna do is I'm gonna go through key key traders of the week Normally socks that I've traded but every now and then I'll throw something that I didn't trade But just something that I kind of want to go over and highlight maybe key Important parts about the trade because other people trade stuff that I don't So I still think it's beneficial. I I'll go over the weekly market sentiment where I feel the market's at as far as like Bullish bearish kind of stagnating Let's do it. All right, so key traders so Fran, I'm just gonna go over this one I totally miss Fran. It was a great short opportunity and I just totally missed the move The the reason why I avoided this was because it was a real company, right? Like this is that this is an actual company with like stores out there And so I tried to be extra cautious a little bit with this thing I kept wanting it a little bit higher like we tank and I kind of wanted a push to five and we didn't get it And then we tanked here. I wanted to push the b-wap and we never got it and like just I just couldn't keep chasing, right? But I'm not really unhappy that I missed because there's so many parts of this Trade that I didn't like right. It was a real company. The volume was really high It had like I think it had investor news, right? That's stuff that I don't really like to short So I was totally okay with just missing it. It did end up being a great trader, but it's not my knee So I missed this move Anyway, GHS I this was a Trade I did a couple days ago. Um, by the way is like I have an air conditioner going on in the in the background Is it loud? Should I turn this off for everybody? Okay, just making sure All right. So yeah, GHS I was kind of the big mover of Yesterday or a couple days ago And the thing about this trade that I kind of fell in love with was that it was a it was a patent news Which historically has gotten a lot of can get a lot of hype for it patents Patent news it had high volume and it was what I like to call it It was it gave me this feeling it was casually up a hundred percent on this gap and rip over here It was casually up a hundred percent just Straight up and you'll find these a lot with stocks that cross over the one dollar market It's easy to get up to a hundred percent, but a lot of the times I noticed that like people will short the sock That's up a hundred percent and they'll just short it just because it's up a hundred percent And hundred percent is a really round number that people get attracted to short So just the fact it was casually about a hundred percent, but the volume was staying really really really high Up here on this first bounce this first dip. I was really interested in buying it The problem is is that like some crews got involved So I was kind of just playing the let me get out let me get back in game I was pretty convicted in the idea that this was going to be the play of the day So I was willing to get back in and this charts a little small, but I tried to buy it up here Kind of like anticipating like a high bid for this stock and we you know It tanked on me a little bit and I tried to add a little bit But then quickly got out and I said, you know, let me just wait for it to find it bottom I can always re-enter exactly what I did. I put the shared right back on Quick stop out got right back in and then add it as it works, right? Kaper is a stock that I did a video lesson on it should be coming out Or a video lesson a trade recap on should be coming out pretty soon. If not already But I just want to go a little bit over it. Basically, this is another example of Kind of see I think see I last week where the trend is totally the key of the trade, right? The stop and I talk and a couple webinars ago I talked about how stocks especially on the one minute can sometimes have really messy trends All I define a trend by is literally just higher lows on a slightly larger time frame than I'm trading That's the that's the time frame I kind of want to be paying attention to the trend on if I'm trading the one minute I care about the five minute trend. I'm training the five minute trend. I care about the 15 minute trend Right so base what I like my rule like my guideline for trends is when stocks respect a trend line it typically means it's going to respect the trend break because If it's working for one half of the trend, it's probably gonna work on the other half So when this was holding trend all day higher lows On the five minute chart because I trade on the one minute when it was holding fire higher lows I was waiting for a break of the higher lows and for me the big break was seven six It was the low of the afternoon and at this point. I had a range break mentality I was willing to buy it over 850 thinking that maybe if the trend holds I want to just you know follow the trend, but if the trend breaks I want to be their counter Countering the trend with the short and so the next trade is codex and this was today So to the first thing to note about codex was the daily charts history It's like huge huge wicks here He's huge huge just sell-off wicks. This really puts fear in in the hearts of longs, right? this really puts fear in the hearts of longs because You know everyone sees this and says I can't be holding on to this at the end of the day Because at the end of the day, it's always way under the opening price and it's always tank So I can't be holding on to this at the end of the day So when people have that mentality of I can't be holding it You know everyone anybody who is long is always looking for the sell Anybody who is always not shorts are always looking for the sell and be a longs always looking for the sell It's definitely the edge is going to be in your favorites of shorter, right? So naturally I tried to long The first trade I had on this was kind of long I Was I was a little bit long buys in the open and this was solely on a technical level the the high of the day Here was 180 or the high of the last the high of the last Big move was 180 and so that I was what I felt was going to be the The the most important support slash resistance level that was going to matter. All right, so market segment So the market this week has been Kind of more in the middle like it's a little I think less bullish than last week I'm starting to start to head a little bit over towards more reds, right? But we did have some good movers right caper and GHS I were strong movers and the reason why I called GHS I Like kind of like a a strong mover like yes It did fade off at the end of the day, but in my opinion as far as sentiment goes Traders expect these stocks to fail at the end of the day traders expect piggy stock So the fact that the stock tanks at the end of the day like the fact is it did run it gathered momentum So in that's why I count GHS I as a net positive as a on the market sentiment as opposed to a net negative right as opposed to a red because of People expected to be read so it meets the expectation if it kind of tanks near the end of the day, right, but The fact that it sort up 200% at all was Made it I guess a positive impact on the market because maybe tomorrow people are going to be looking for the next one that go up 200% even though they did fade right and the same reason for caper right caper like did fade off But they're expected to you know, they meet the expectation But the fact is they ran and they ran strong. So I count them as positive creating good vibes, right? This is a this is one of my I guess I Want to say favorite things to talk about because I think it's the most important right the prior trade hangover is a Mentality of stocks where you're letting yesterday's trade effect today and it doesn't have to be yesterday's trade It can be five minutes ago trade it can be last month's trade whatever it means that something about a prior trade is affecting your trade today, right and And So something I like to kind of in like bring up the conversation. Do you care about a trade that you took six months ago? Probably not you're well past that why because you have hit an imaginary Reset button in your mind. You have let that trade go in one year out one other It has left your mentality. It has left your thought. It's no longer affecting your decisions today, right? So the reset button is your favorite button in this trading game, right? It's and if you want to think about it robots You know have a reset button every single second because they don't think right like I'll go do this The reset button needs to be your favorite button in trading, right? You need to be able to take each each single hand each single setup that you get with the independence that it deserves because If you you know like if you get aces cracked The next time you get aces, you can't say well my aces got cracked So I'm just gonna pull these aces like you can see it doesn't make sense with poker It doesn't make sense with trading either, but we let these emotions kind of ride over us, right? But and the reason why I think I call it yesterday's trade effect today Normally like we always seek this Psychological reinforcement every day when we come into the market. We see the dollar sign on our P&L say zero dot zero zero Right. So we're fresh, right? but What if it did that after every single trade could you psychologically think that you're on a fresh slate, right? This is what I try to do I try to pretend that I'm on a fresh slate after each and each and every single trade, right? So why do I have a picture of a stoplight? I Have a picture of a stoplight because this every time I get in my car I think about something really really really really really funny that reminds me of training You know when you're driving and You're driving through you're driving through and you're driving up and the stock It's a stock and the light is red and you're coming up to an intersection of the light is red And you're looking over at the side light and you see oh shut up And you see that that the cross the cross light is blinking it's about to you know the orange light is turning on the side road and You know that when that light turns red yours is going to turn green right and so you just keep driving Right and you keep driving, but you you're a little off on your timing very much like a trade What happens right before you get to the intersection and it's still red You pump those brakes just a little bit don't you you get you? You pump those brakes just a little bit and that is essentially like stopping out at high of day That's stopping out at high of date that is not having conviction that the high of day with wiggle room is going to hold Right, you know like you know that that that the light's gonna turn green yet You always always always pump those brakes just a little bit. That's a little bit of a stop-loss, right? That's and and every time I do that. I'm like I just got stopped out on the train Right, I just got stopped out on a train and that's that's me having a lack of conviction Even though I'm smart enough to know that it's going to turn green just because it's not there's that fear that like maybe I'm a little Off on my timing like a short or I just need to just put a little stop on and then keep going Right, so that's why I have the picture of the stoplight. So conviction is a method of approaching a trade Conviction what is conviction conviction essentially leverages a trade and so not every single trade I do is with conviction like if every trade I did with conviction if every trade I did was with panic conviction like I Conviction I say for my a plus setup. So I typically have the largest size on my conviction trade But um, I don't know like it's I would probably just be like I Probably need to install a bathroom in my in my trading room like I'd be peeing all the time But basically it's a way of approaching a trade using what I call a conviction lens when viewing price action So having conviction means having conviction in an idea right the idea of a stock and when you use conviction Right the way I define conviction lens is You are set on your opinion of the stock you are set You you are really sure already you're confident you're convicted that you know what's going to happen with the stock I'm like verifying it all looks right on my phone too. So Yeah, and you can move this too, right if you want to Yeah, yeah, no, I've got I've taken over art everybody's screen should change now. So we're going to talk about his pattern pattern and data analysis so aloha was talking about Having conviction and a setup and a lot of people Send messages all the time. They're like, okay. Yeah, dad is great And I'll I'll send stuff and aloha would be like so you're telling me there's a chance And the joke behind that is that You know data is a guide just the same as technical support and resistance, but there's nothing better that I have found that when data combined with technical support and resistance when data supports Your technical analysis you have to have conviction. That's the difference between Just slinging a gun and hoping to hit the broad side of the barn And actually having A real set risk and a real plan and a real edge In knowing that There are high odds that this works And if you're trading a setup that only works 60 of the time and only gives you like one and a half Risk reward return throw it out. Not even worth it in my opinion. It's too It's not even worth it. So This little abbreviation is like kind of like the WWE JD thing, but this actually stands for what the hell are we doing here? So I'm going to explain to you what we're doing here So we're going to go over the purpose of Statistical analysis and probability so we're going to define Statistical probabilities of an observed market edge. So the trump hand I got the trump hand going. Sorry Um So the observed market edge first is You have to have screen time screen time is one of the biggest things but as a new trader We always struggle With screen time right because when you subscribe you're like, whoa joined in my seat. Here we go. I'm going to learn all kind of stuff And I got to watch the screens for another six months. Oh my god. What am I going to do? so it You have a veteran like val for example who's had I don't know how many years experience i'm going to throw a number out there and just be like 20 I might age him at that level, but sorry um When you have 20 years of screen time experience. Yeah, I ask questions. Yeah, that's fine Um, when we have when you have 20 years of screen time You've seen 20 years of all the same setups or you've seen new setups or you've seen pattern mutations or you've seen small changes You've seen all those observations. That's the point at m. I. C. Is it's mentorship? The key is Mentorship I can't do that on screen. Sorry. Uh, it's not legal here in texas dr. Blunt, um but uh You now after you have all this information coming into you develop a specific set of criteria to weed out The no pun intended there that was perfect timing nice To weed out the noise in the market so This is when you run your scans in the morning or at night and all of a sudden you have eight tickers that you're looking at and you're like Okay, cool. I got a 190 level or 210 level on this ticker. I got a four level over here I got a 16 20 level over here. I'm going to just put orders at all of them Not the best idea as a beginner not the best idea in general unless You just a human robot And uh, you're like bow that can short and work For 14 positions at once me. I maxed out at like three I really get stressed at three So the benefits of doing this kind of analysis is you shorten your learning curve completely Down to I would tell you 90 days to six months And you eventually grow a clear understanding of A potential outcome of a trade idea. So that's what I mean when you have conviction in this line, you know that if it hits these your technical levels and The study supports it. It has an x percent chance of working whatever that that gives you conviction It gives you faith in knowing You have an edge here without trading it for two years before you ever figure it out So now let's take this little brief concept. Let's say that we have a proven strategy Okay that We tested over X period of time and we have many samples for it But if we take a specific set of rules and we teach it to one person Who's never traded. There's nothing about the markets. We teach them how to click buttons. That's it when this number goes here You're out when this goes here. You do this you you know nothing else about the market If they followed that Set of rules and that set of criteria that person would be profitable and we have proven that Okay, and history repeats itself in the stock market. We see it every day in small caps But does this individual really need to know or understand why or how this system works Do they really need to know All the little details about it or do they just need to simply follow the rules? Should they simply just follow the rules set in place that have proven over time to be profitable or should they try to outsmart The already proven strategy This is what happens when You come in we tell you lines. We give you Really three key strategies, which is low hanging fruit death line and first bounce That's like the three every day that happen and then if you trade ipos or big caps You've got first red day first red day also works on small caps as well Excuse me. Oh, I left my drink in the other room Okay, moving on So the big difference here between pattern analysis and data analysis a pattern You have to have an observed market edge first. You have to have screen time But that's why you have mentorship, right because you're going to cut down the screen time You're going to know that this person has spent 20 years. They spent the 20 years to figure it out These are the things that work Don't try to outsmart them and create something that Isn't there you come to be a profitable trader you come to learn trading You come to learn a setup you come to learn a strategy Yet too many people try to reinvent the wheel They tell you how many questions I see about tape reading and I'm going to mention it But How many times in chat have you seen tape reading is not important? It's not crucial. It's all about the chart tape read yet Tape is the mystery it's bigfoot the one everyone wants to find It's the one thing everybody wants to learn that wants to love And it's great, but all it does is confirm a pattern that's already there Like for example ready player one, I don't even think that dude looks at level two I think he just trades from his phone And he kills it. He does a great freaking job. He murders it never looks at tape. Nothing. It's all about the chart All about the chart So when screen time is the most crucial thing the more observation the Better chance you have of observing a repeatable pattern with a predictable outcome That's why you don't really have to do this because You already have the data right there From all the videos that tell you what to do and what set of rules and what set of criteria to follow Hey traders, this is tosh. I go by t bradley 90 in the my investing club chat Just wanted to reach out and say if you have any questions about m.i.c Joining m.i.c. Maybe you're a member already you have three ways to contact myself personally and through m.i.c You can hit our social media You can hit me through pms in chat or you can contact us through my email at tosh at my investing club.com That's tosh at my investing club.com I will get back to you in a timely manner and i'm saying this because i'm here to help and I don't want anybody to Be afraid to reach out and ask any question that they have. We are here for you guys. All right. See you guys