 Okay, gong hey fat choy to any of our Chinese followers a happy new year. Hope you all had a fantastic weekend Let's have a look what we can expect in markets this week We're going to talk a little bit about the China lunar new year We're also going to talk about US earnings really picking up pace this week And we're also going to talk about some of the data points coming out namely then you've got the flash PMIs the Bank of Canada Rate decision US GDP and core PC all due this week So first of all, let's talk about this Chinese new year the mass movement of people obviously on the ongoing lunar new year holiday period and the fear that it might spread Further the COVID outbreak being experienced in China at the moment where we have seen numbers pick up on the U-turns They've made with their zero Tolerance policy now one of the things that came out the weekend was this which was a report Citing a prominent government Scientist saying the possibility of a big COVID-19 rebound in China over the next two to three months is remote as they anticipated around 80% of the population Have been infected already therefore immune now I would definitely it goes fast to say that this is a government scientist So I don't think it's unusual for them to be saying this type of thing as part of a kind of PR containment Measure particularly when undoubtedly Numbers are probably going to rise in the coming weeks Given the fact of course that China estimates around just shy of 1.2 billion People will be traveling during this year's spring festival. Remember the new year in itself It means complete lockdown kind of will not lock down I shouldn't use that word bank holidays in China meaning they all their their markets are closed a seven-day long-state holiday Starts really from today The Chinese government has discouraged travel by enforcing stricter lockdowns in acting some stringent testing around this particular time given Its sensitivity on the mass migration of people But nonetheless signed to keep an arm going further forward in time probably won't really yet to see The results of that for another few weeks or so a couple of other things that earning season I mentioned it briefly and the reason why is because this week and next week really is the bulk of The volume of the company's reporting you've got over 50% of the S&P 500 this week the ones to watch out for are Tuesday you've got Microsoft Verizon Johnson Johnson If I flip over here, maybe you could see it a bit more clearly You've also got Microsoft the big tech giant first out of the shoot if you like ahead of meta Amazon the others they're not coming till next week They're gonna be reporting after close on Tuesday You've then got Boeing AT&T ASML on on pre-market Wednesday Tesla after market Always one to watch and then you've got Intel visa after market Thursday with Chevron AmEx and others on Friday. So definitely keeping an eye on anything season overall 11% of the companies have reported their actual results thus far for Q4 2022 to date off those companies 67% have reported actual EPS above estimates that might sound good But against a five-year average that's actually down about 10 percentage points and below the 10 year average of 73% So definitely reflection of some of the misses that have been happening there comparative to previous years gone by The other thing just on a macro perspective because it has been relatively quiet on that front overall And the weekend's news was this interesting piece coming out of the Wall Street Journal and in particular because of the author Nick Timoross, I'm sure I've said that incorrectly. So I apologize Nick But he is what's what we call in the market a fed watcher and these are the informed ear if you like of that the central bank uses an indirect way to communicate to the market via These these kind of well selected journalists and this chap is one of those so what he says basically is Mustard its high quality in terms of the source even though We know that it's not the Fed or Powell saying this we kind of read between the lines that it is So in this case one of the things here is saying is that the Fed officials are preparing to slow interest rate increases for the second straight meeting and The debate on how much then hire to raise them after gaining more confidence and inflation or ease Further this year as we've seen with various data points of late They could begin deliberating at the Jan meeting So the end of this month is when the meeting happens Their announcement comes on the first of Feb gathering as how much softening that there's been in the labor demand Spending and inflation that they would need to see before pausing rate rises then in the spring So yeah, and very interesting piece, but not too off-piste of what the market's been kind of pricing at this point in time Let's take a look at the week ahead then because there is quite a few things going on I'm going to kick off then in relative chronological order so Exing out Monday where things are pretty quiet things really start to pick up from Tuesday onward You've got the various flash PMI numbers The flash reading is always being the ones that markets most sensitive to this is for the month of January So we get the full sweep UK Eurozone the various European countries and the US The service sector is forecast to have moved back above the 50 mark when talking about Europe Indicating a majority of businesses reports in an expansion compared to the prior month The manufacturing PMI is expected to remain below that threshold, but still have risen from Jan compared to December Till talking about then Wednesday, we've got German iPhone That is the soft sentiment survey forward looking then that the Institute would be asking Companies to operate in a variety of different sectors in Germany about how do they feel about economic conditions? About the six month horizon and so forth so good gauge to see where heads are at in the Eurozone in Context of the current economic climate, and then you've also got the Bank of Canada rate decision They're said to be getting close now to the end point of their rate hiking phase Inflation is showing some signs of cooling off more recently But the jobs market remains pretty hot and therefore Most analysts including here this table you're looking at from ing are expected them to deliver another 25 basis point rate Hike on the 25th of January this Wednesday Then looking further on you've got one of the main data points of the week US Q4 GDP Obviously now we're into January of 2023 So it's going to be particularly interesting the consensus estimate then is that US GDP will print at 2.6% in the first three months To December 31st according to a poll from Bloomberg That would mark a shift down then from 3.2% that we've seen prior so here just to give you a bit of a sense so started to see some of that slow down coming in towards the back end of Last year and of course the the jury's out and whether or not we're going to have a recession in the US Banks like GS Goldman saying that there's only around a 35% probability other banks a bit more aggressive on their Outlook that we are going to indeed fall into a recession in the coming months in the in the US The other thing then going back to the calendar Including in the GP GDP release will be the personal consumption expenditures price index And that will reflect Changes in the price of goods and services that the data is expected to show an increase around 1.7% down from 2.3% And that's a particularly one that the market is sensitive to to looking out for of course I've just given the the overarching focus on inflation You've also got durable goods coming out us on Thursday out of the US Analysts at ING note that they will likely be strong and that's purely really down to a Boeing Large order they received Led by United Airlines who ordered more than 200 Boeing 737 maxes and 787 aircraft Exing that out the numbers really not as good as that's likely to be on the surface level And then you've got new home sales as well They'll likely suffer as a laggard response to the downturn in mortgage applications that we have been seeing of late No Fed speakers at all They are in their blackout period now ahead of that meeting that we just mentioned from that Wall Street Journal article So yes, there could be more leaks to come through various press sources like Bloomberg or all the journals So just keep your eye out for but overall no major Fed speakers will be Formerly at least speaking and then yeah as I said earlier You do have the core PC price index coming out on Friday expected to show relatively But nine point two percent month-on-month reading and that should then confirm the easing of the trend in price pressures that we've been Observing as of late and that is it. So hopefully that was useful any questions at all Feel free to to drop me a comment on the video Otherwise, don't forget to like and subscribe and I'll see you next time. Take care