 Well, first of all, thank you very much, and good afternoon. It's a great honor for me to be here. Before I begin, let me take this opportunity to thank the organizers of the UNU wider for organizing this event for us to present our work. The topic that they choose, learning to compete, is also very timely and closely related to the line manufacturing in Africa project at the World Bank. The project is conducted by a team of researchers and I'm the head of that group. But I must say that this work, if there is any credit, it should go through the whole team. And I'm just presenting here because they're not here. Today, I will talk first a bit about the fighting of our project, which has culminated in a number of books which have been published or about to be published. Two of them, I brought two of them here, but you can find them online. And I'll give you the website that you can access for free. The project objective is to find practical ways to help Africa grow the manufacturing sector. Again, I first will talk about the background for the project. Then we'll talk about the methodology and the findings. And then illustrate the analysis with the example of the latter sub-sector in Ethiopia before turning to policy lessons. First, the background of the study. And that's the outline of my talk. I think from this session this morning, we don't need to really reveal why Africa needs industrialization. I think John and his colleague this morning have given very good rational why Africa needs industrialization. But quickly, it's the fastest way to raise per capita income. And secondly, no country in the world has become an advanced economy without going through industrialization, especially the production of live manufacturing. And even the resource-based countries need manufacturing to create jobs and prosperity. So with that in mind, how is Africa's performance in industrialization? Well, we know that in the past decade, Africa GDP has accelerated to 5.2% per year compared to minus 0.8% in the previous decade. And per capita income grew at 2%. However, most of this growth comes from the commodity exports because, as you know, commodity prices have gone up in recent years. Africa investment remains very low, less than 15% of GDP. And 80% of the workers remain in low productivity jobs. So the recent economic growth is not likely to be sustainable. And more importantly, it doesn't generate the guide of jobs that Africa would need, especially the one that the younger African would aspire to. On the other hand, simple labor-intensive manufacturing have been shown to offer employment creation and structural transformation for many Asian countries. And this is the right time because real wages increased in China are forcing many enterprises over there to start looking abroad for possible relocation. In our study, we look at five sub-sectors. We look at apparel, leather product, wood product, metal products, and agri-business. And the case study is Ethiopia, Tanzania, Zambia. We use China as a benchmark, and Vietnam as a comparator. For more details, I would invite you to go into the website because we have close to 1,500 pages of detail information on our study. And because of the time constraint here, I will not be able to go into detail in many of this. The key contribution of our study is in this methodology. The study is based on five different sources of information or surveys. Four of these are original work done by the study team so that they generate original and new data for the analysis. In the qualitative surveys, we went over to all five countries. We interviewed about 300 enterprises, both formal and informal, using the questionnaire designed by Professor John Sutton at the London School of Economics that you heard this morning. We went to the flow factories. We visited the showrooms. We went to see private bankers, government officials. And here's a picture of our visit in China. Then we have a quantitative surveys that was carried out by Professor Marcel Fabchamps and Simon Quinn of Oxford. That covers about 1,400 enterprises again on the same five countries and covering five subsectors. We also have the comparative value chain and feasibility study carried out by GDS, a consulting firm in Reston, Virginia, based on in-depth interview of about 300 enterprises, medium size, again on all five countries and covering the five subsectors. So we use exactly the same team, same methodology, covering all five countries. And in that analysis, we are able to compare across countries across both Asia and Africa. We also have the Kaizen study carried out by our colleagues at GRIPS and Professor Tessushi Sadobe here who participated in that. That study covers about 550 SMEs in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Vietnam. Finally, we also have the World Bank Enterprise Survey. But that survey is fairly common. So I won't go into any of this stuff. Basically, four out of five of these are new and original data generated by the world. On the basis, so let me quickly go over the main findings. On the basis of the evidence, we find that Africa indeed has the potential to create millions of productive jobs. On the basis of, first of all, low wages. Ethiopian wages are about half of the Vietnamese and one-fifth of the Chinese in the latter subsector with roughly the same productivity in well-managed firms. Africa does have natural resources, excellent weather that produces good leather. And I will talk a bit about that later on in terms of the inputs to the leather industry. We have a privilege access to high-income markets for exports and finally growing domestic and regional market propelled in part by the good recent economic growth. However, the industrial structure of Africa is currently characterized, especially in the countries that we study, by a large number of low productivity, very small informal enterprises, which exist side by side with a few medium-large enterprises, mostly FDI and SOE. What that means is that for structural transformation to take place, the productivity of both types of enterprises could need to be improved. At a broad level, furthermore, we have a vicious circle of pervasive poverty and low industrialization. Even under the most optimistic scenario, most African countries can only meet modest targets in infrastructure needs after 20, 30 years. And part of the problem is not just the poverty, but also the geography of Africa. You have low population density, low rate of urbanization, large number of landlocked countries, and numerous small economies. So you need to break out of this vicious circle through a targeted approach. At a broad level, and in the three African countries and across the five sub-sectors, we find the six major constraints as a binding constraint for the lie manufacturing. These include input costs and quality, industrial land, finance, trade logistic, entrepreneurial skills, and worker skills. These constraints vary by country, by sector, and by firm size. So policies to address these constraints have to be specific. And you cannot have one size fits all. It has two implications. First, policy makers need to do the work to find out what the specific constraints are in each of the sub-sectors in order to design policies to remove them. Second, once they identify the constraints, the list of these constraints becomes very small in numbers and can easily be addressed, which can lead to reform momentum, which can then lead to further reforms. This is in contrast with the past studies of Africa growth potential, which inevitably come up with a long list of constraints. You have infrastructure problem, education problem, corruption problem, grad tape, and so on. We believe that narrowing this analysis through our approach can make the reform agenda much more manageable within the financial and human resources constraints of most African countries. In this slide, we show how using this approach, we can come up with a matrix of binding constraints for Ethiopia by sub-sector and by firm size. The red cells indicate the critical, the most important policies, the most important issues that you need to resolve in Ethiopia. Yellow one means important, which is the next order of priority. And then when you have a blank cell, means you don't have to worry about it. We won't have time to go in detail into these constraints. But I advise you to go through the book on Ethiopia that this is the book on Ethiopia, which provide details on these constraints and how to address these constraints. With the time limit that I have, let me quickly go over to the second row, which is a ladder product. A ladder product here is one of the input industries. And as you see, it's critical for both smaller and larger. The ladder industry in Ethiopia employs 8,000 workers with $8 million of exports. That's back in 2010. Ethiopia also has the second largest livestock population in Africa after Sudan. But you compare that to Vietnam, that currently has, well, for the same year, has 600,000 workers and exports of roughly $2 to $3 billion. That was back in 2010. Right now, in 2013, that number is about $6 billion a year in terms of ladder products. Ethiopia labor costs are lower than Vietnam. And as I mentioned, Ethiopia does have the second largest cattle population. So the most binding constraints for Ethiopia ladder industries are the three factors. First, there's poor disease control that affects the quality of the skin. Second is a lack of the quality processing of the raw hide. And third is a trade policy that affects the availability of leather. Once you find out these three basic constraints in the leather subsector, then solutions come almost immediately in order to treat the ectoparasite, which is a disease affecting the skin of the livestock. The USID has come up with a scheme that can reduce the incidence of this ectoparasite from 94% now to 5%. And the total cost per annum is roughly $9.5 million, which is not big. I mean, if you think in the scheme of the exports that Ethiopia could easily get to Vietnam level of $23 billion a year, and $9.5 million treatment is not large. Second, on the lack of quality processing, the case of Ramsey footwear product in Ethiopia shows that with some technical assistance from the Indian Institute of Leather, which provide technical assistance to seven factories in Ethiopia, one of them, the Ramsey factory, then was able to trip on production within 18 months and was able to export to the Italian market. So this issue of the lack of quality processing of raw hide can easily be rectified with some technical assistance. And third, the trade policy on processed leather, we believe that if Ethiopia allow export and imports of raw hide and processed leather to help alleviate this constraint, this would solve the problem. And we had a discussion with the government last year, and they basically agree with that. So that's the leather case. In terms of policy implications, again, as I mentioned before, because the Biden constraints vary by sector and by firm size, policy makers need to identify, prioritize, and remove the most serious constraints. They need to target policies selectively in line with the comparative advantage and capability. But let me now go over to some of the policy lessons from our study, which comes out in a different book. In fact, the book is called Tell from the Development Frontier, where we study how China and other Asian countries have resolved the Biden constraints specific to line manufacturing. And in that book, we discussed the general solutions, which is industrial parks, industrial clusters, and trading companies. For each of the constraints, China also had some specific solution, which we also discussed in this book. But then I don't have enough time to go into details, but let me quickly mention that and I'll give you the reference. So probably what are the major policy lessons from our study on Asia? First one is we need to create a supporting environment for manufacturing. And by supporting environment, I don't mean the same terminology that's been used over and over again, the so-called doing business and that type of thing. And I completely agree with John that this type of thing is really useless because if a country is able to solve all the problems in the doing business, then it would become a developed country overnight. So why talk about industrialization? Second area is a fueling knowledge and financial gaps through direct foreign investment and network. Third is using substitution policy and sequencing. Fourth is starting small and building gradually. And finally, establishing islands of success by keeping targeted policies selective and within the country's limited resources. So again, I'll go quickly on each one of them. I'm creating a supportive environment for manufacturing. First, we believe that it's very important to have a public endorsement of private sector initiative. And so it doesn't cost the government much, but it's to come out and to say openly that it's important to have a private sector initiative. And how important it is to have a private sector growth, that's very important because the risks are extremely high in developing countries. So for a private investor to start doing business, they need to have their risk reduced. We also find out from the China study that the Chinese actually did not pick winners, but they basically back winners. They let the private initiative start first and then they support the one that wins, the one that seems to have, seem to be doing well. Competition is a key in our study of China. And again, I mean, this is a cliche, maintaining conducive macro and trade policy. It seems like a cliche, but it is indeed very important in the work. In fact, we study roughly 30 cases of industrialization in Asia and Africa in that book. And virtually this confirms the need to maintain discipline in macro and trade policy. And finally, this is, I think this comes back to many of the discussion we had in the last two days. Neither the private sector nor the public sector can drive the process independently and success require public and private cooperation. FDI, I mean, you could talk about how China actually industrialized through FDI because all of these ideas, all of these knowledge coming from Hong Kong and from Taiwan. In fact, there was a study that says that you could look at the correlation between, you could actually determine how fast China moved by looking the distance it is from Hong Kong. So just to show you how important it is. Substitution policy and sequencing. Economists, especially in the West, don't want to look at second best policy. These are second best policy. And they actually work in Asian countries. And there's no reason why they don't work in Africa at all. The industrial part, the industrial cluster, and the trading companies. Again, and another study, another finding that we came up with was that there's a need to look at the final goods first rather than looking at the upstream and downstreams. Take the case of Zambia. It does have a comparative advantage in the production of cotton. But should you go into the upstreams activities of cotton processing? Not yet. I think the most important thing is to have the garment sector first in order to create employment. Then gradually, you could go into upstream or downstream because these are more capital intensive. Starting small and building gradually, this is very important. Again, I give the example of Ethiopia. And that's also illustrated through the development of China's lie industry. Establishing island of success. The work that we did shows clearly that production and exports of lie manufacturing can expand without solving all the problems of a developing country. I mean, I go back to the doing business thing. You can't solve all the constraints in a developing country. And this approach allows the government to design concrete packages of specific, feasible, inexpensive policy to term start industrialization. And we apply that approach in three countries. This is the book on Ethiopia. In about four weeks, there's two other books coming out on Tanzania and on Zambia. And then in August, the book on China will come out. So we have at least three books along the same, within the same project. Thank you very much. And this is the website that you could go into to provide information. Thank you.