 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Given all the quarterbacking injuries we had throughout this year in the NFL I think we got pretty lucky with the way things broke for the playoffs because all three NFC playoff games and wild card weekend are Bangers who got some pretty fun AFC games, too And I think based on the initial odds and spots where there is some value across this week at Fandall sports But we're gonna do for today because I'm gonna dig into all six games across wild card weekend Outline what my models say both of the spread in total and outline where I see value at Fandall sportsbook and Whether or not I agree enough with the model to trust and actually bet that Based on where the market currently is let's dive on in and go through all six games for the wild card round Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research here to give my first look at the wild card weekend games At Fandall sportsbook and outline where my models show value for this week Again, just going game by game to outline my favorite bets for the wild card round The schedule for this week will be pretty similar to usual tomorrow Ryan Williams will be with us talks in futures Heading into the playoffs outlining where AC's value in the futures market at Fandall sportsbook Ryan had a pretty good year being on the Bucks to win the NFC South Texans to win the AFC South good year all around by a rise looking forward to that discussion with him Talks in NBA NHL Tom Vecchio on Wednesday Dr. Ed Feng is with us on Thursday to break down his read on the wild card games And then player props with JJ Zacharyson coming up on a Friday all right here in the covering the spread podcast He'd so make sure you're subscribed wherever you get your podcasts You like what you hear leave us a five-star rating on Apple podcast or over on Spotify also a reminder that our preview of the National Championship game Between Michigan and Washington is already up on the covering the spread podcast feed the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus just go there to get Dr. Ed Feng's insights on that game and a player prop He likes for tonight as well The NFL playoffs are here and now is the time to get in on the action with Fandall America's number one sportsbook Right now new customers get one hundred fifty dollars in bonus bets guaranteed when you place a five dollar bet That's a hundred and fifty bucks in bonus bets win or lose The app is so easy to use and there are so many different ways to bet like live singing parlays You can find bets in the new explore tab You can make a parlay in the parlay hub the best way to find popular parlays and more So visit Fandall and make your first bet a layup Fandall official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus in President Select States Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star casino LLC first online real money wager only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is now a trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandall.com Rg in Colorado Iowa Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia Call 1-800 next step or text next step to 5334 2 in Arizona 1-888-789-7777 Or visit ccpg.org Slash chat in Connecticut 1-809 with an Indiana 1-805-22 4700 visit ksgamblinghealth.com in Kansas 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia 1-805-22 4700 Wyoming hope is here visit gambling help line MA org or call you 103 to 750 50 for 247 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-70 hope and why or text open Y in New York Let's dig in now and talk about these wild card games over at Fandall sportsbook and outline where I'm seeing value This weekend again just one game by game for this week Let's begin things with the Saturday afternoon game That is the Browns at the Texans right now at Fandall sportsbook The Browns are two and a half point favorites and the total in this game is 43 and a half and this Browns team has been Efficient or at least more efficient with Joe Flacco than they have been this entire year if you look at the games with just Flacco They're a 0.05 passing net expected points per drop back NEP is number fires EPA metric and the league average is 0.07. So again Flacco 0.05 a bit below average But it's way better than where they were at before and when you pair it with their defense It's a very good recipe. So It's a good team the Browns are and I think this defense is very good The Texans are also a bit more run heavy than you would like They have a fifty one point six percent early down pass rate and games try to start it and finished So they should be leaning more into the past than what they've done But I don't think that will change so it's a more efficient Browns offense It is a very good Browns defense and it's also a Texans offense that may not be operating the way You would like them to do Even with all that said I am still showing value on the Texans in this game my model The two models I have are actually kind of split here one model has the Browns saver other one has the Texans And it's by similar amounts when you blend the two models together, which is that been The best model for me is the blended model as far as mean squared error throughout this year goes it has this game is a pick-up and I Don't think that's wrong The Texans if you look at them We're talking about the Brown splits with Flacco But the Texans with Stroud have been more efficient than what the Browns had been with Flacco through the air Defense is tougher to predict than offense and the Browns defense has Dipped a bit when they've been on the road overall this year but against lesser foes like Denver teams like that have gotten them When they've been on the road the Texans may get some of their pass catchers back this week Noah Brown Robert Woods bolt out this past week So I think a lot of things point to these two teams being closer than the spread indicates when you factor in the fact that the Texans are at home I am very okay taking the Texans in this game as a result What I want to do with this bet is layer it with the spread in the moneyline Giving myself upside in case the Texans win this game outright, but also still getting a profit should they cover So what I would take is your typical bet size Split that up so that you'd profit if they cover the two and a half and then put some on the money line of plus 124 as well Again giving yourself upside should the Texans win, but still some flexibility if they cover the plus two and a half of Andal sports book is minus 104 the money line plus 124 for the Texans again blended model uses as a toss-up So I will be willing to take the Texans and the points here Layer that with their money line because I think that CJ Stroud is is that dude and Even against a very tough defense I want to see what you can do in this game So give me the Texans against the Browns in the opener as far as the total goes I do show some value in the under my model has to set 41.1 It's a 43.5 right now shaded towards the over at minus 115 now because 44 is a key number I'm gonna wait this one out I want to see if we can get this to 44 and a half that gives me a win on a key number of 44 like a 24 20 tight game 2717 somewhere in that range. I Want to get that leeway before I decide to dive in for me right now It's more of a lean towards the under than anything But if we do see that total go up a bit more I could see myself buying and taking the under if it gets to 44 and a half I'll say I think that's the breaking point for me to take the under on this game But I do like the Texan spread layer with their money line Totally okay in my book Second game of the week yet is the Dolphins at the cheese this game is in Kansas City and right now at Vanduul sports book Chiefs are favored by three and a half and the total is at 44 Right now that total has gone up despite the fact there is some pretty interesting Weather in this game 11 mile power wins, which is a downgrade for me based on my model and of course very low Temperatures in Kansas City as well. So despite the weather this total has been on the rise Throughout Monday morning It's tough to balance what to do with the Dolphins offense because they're very beat up But I also think that Jalen waddle and Raheem Moster probably will be able to play in this game They both practiced on Friday limited capacity. I Think they'll play But it's hard to know for sure if that'll be the case and the Dolphins weren't that bad from a down to down Perspective against the bills on Sunday night, even without those two guys The defense though, I think is a pretty legitimate concern given how many edge rushers they've lost They're down to like their fourth and fifth edge rushes I've got Mavin Ingram out there covering guys routes I think that's enough to nullify the gains they've gotten from Jalen Ramsey being healthy for this defense Chiefs offense has been above average this year, but not elite They've been very good running the football and that could be a key here because the Dolphins rush defense Hasn't been as good as their past defense this year So I'm hoping for a pretty big Isaiah Pacheco game Pacheco got the week off this past week should be healthy and rested I would expect a lot of Pacheco. So for DFS, I'll be looking Pacheco's way quite a bit Overall my model does show value in the Dolphins here because it's the plus three and a half But unlike with the Texans, I don't agree with the model on this one It is nice to get a win on three which you do with the plus three and a half But my concerns around the Dolphins offense run pretty deep One model views this game pretty close. So even if I I think if I were just taking everything my model said was a value I would be on the Dolphins here, but I'm not doing that. It's a stay away from me. So I'm very okay not buying into The Dolphins despite the fact my model shows value in them for this game I'm also viewing this the total is a stay away here I have the the total of 42.4. So I was right on market when it was 42 and a half It's now 44 if we were to see that total increase to 44 and a half then I might be able to take the under that'd be two points of value for me getting a win on 44 so I would keep an eye on that total if it does continue to rise and get up above You know to 44 and a half or so that might be a spot to take an under for right now with it 44 minus 110 both ways I am okay Staying away from this game entirely And just letting it ride unless we get some movements in favor of Kansas City to to make the Dolphins a bit more palatable Or we get some more movement with that total rising even a bit more The first game of Sunday is definitely the one where the market has been most volatile Throughout this morning. That is the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Buffalo Bills right now at Vandal Sports Book Bills are 10 point favorites total in this game is 35 and a half and the reason this this game has been all over the place is because there is some pretty wild weather in Store for Buffalo at least as of right now for Sunday at 1 p.m. Eastern They have 20 mile per hour winds projected to weather underground and there are some potential snow in the forecast Buffalo can get lake effects. No, so if there is no it could be pretty dramatic too So this total was I believe 44 last night It was 38 and a half this morning It is now down to 35 and a half shaded towards the under because the under is minus 115 at Vandal Sports Book so people have gotten all over that wind narrative and I Think it's gone a bit too far and we'll talk about that more in a bit in a second Let's talk about this overall game first before discussing just the weather the Steelers also another team That's pretty tough to balance because they've gotten a boost from Mason Rudolph, but I'm Okay, being a bit skeptical about how sustainable that is So I've got them projected pretty similar to what I'd have if it were Kenny Pickett like I'm not sure a big of a difference It is between Pickett and Rudolph when we look like projecting forward So that's why I'm okay keeping things pretty status quo on the Steelers offense And then we downgrade the defense with no TJ Watt and once I do make that down great to the defense I've got the spread at 10.4, which is right in line at the market again. It's at 10 right now Was 10 and a half earlier. So I'm in line at the market in that But with a large spread coupled with the Steelers improvements on offense and TJ Watt's injury I actually do like the over quite a bit now That's even with weather accounted for because again my model accounts for wind it penalizes teams pretty heavily for wind But I still got this total at 43.2 now. That's what the wind sees projected at 20 miles per hour Let's pretend for a second wind speeds were five miles per hour if I make the wind speeds five miles per hour I've got the total in scheme at 45.8. So that's down 2.6 points based on a 15 mile per hour difference in wind so I'm definitely accounting for weather already in this game and I still can't get anywhere near 35 and a half because it's been coming down throughout the day Josh Allen is a chaotic quarterback Which can lead to points for either team in a hurry and both teams have been efficient running the football So even if we do see a pretty ground-and-pound kind of game I think they could still move the ball and I don't know that necessarily Leads towards and under as much as it may typically do when teams were run heavy because does keep the clock running and stuff like that so I kind of thought we were at the the the bottom point the The nadir of this total when it was a 37 and a half I was wrong on that because it's gone down against at 35 and a half now minus 1 15 on the under If you want to hold out and kind of see if this total continues to crash go for it I think that's totally okay and justifiable, but I think the over will be the play at some points over 35 and a half Minus 105 right now Vanduul sportsbook as far as total go totals go for this week I do show some value in a couple other ones. This is what I feel best about is taking the over on this game I think this this movement has gone way too far So we'll go over 35 and a half at minus 105 for Steelers and bills again If you want to hold out if you can get a 34 and a half 35 is not a key number, but like 34 is so maybe if you want to hold out sure go ahead But at some point I would look to take the over in this game for the Steelers and the bills Second game on Sunday is the Packers at the Cowboys right now at Vanduul sportsbook The Cowboys are favored by seven and a half and the total is 49 and a half and this Cowboys offense has been awesome at home so far this year like Fireballs at home they get that here because they're at home and they get to face a pretty poor defense So the total is high at 49 and a half, but I'm actually right in line with that in my model and I've had a lot of Unders on big games recently the Cowboys Lions the Texans colts and then bills dolphins last night. I've had a lot of unders on primetime big games But here it's a stay away. I've got this at forty nine point five three So right along with market you can actually just enjoy this game and not root against points for once So a deviation for me, but a deviation. I'm very okay with I do want to take the points with the Packers though This is very much a pro Packers take and not an anti Cowboys take the Cowboys are a very good football team And I like them a lot my model likes them a lot But Jordan Love finished this year with point two passing at net expected points per drop back again 0.07 is average CJ Stroud was about 0.16 And I adore CJ Stroud and that number for love is only a smidge below Dak Prescott in this exact same game I think we should start talking about Jordan Love in a much more positive light than we already do And that's even with the past catchers being banged up all year long Jordan Love in week 18 Did not have Christian Watson did not Romeo doves for most of that game And he still shredded a bearer's defense is playing like a top 10 defense across the second half of the year So when you put Jordan loves metrics into my blended model, I've got the Cowboys favorite by 5.6 in this game But in taking the seven and a half I get a win on a seven point game And of course also should the Packers win this one even though the Cowboys have been involved in attendant blood so far this year That's pretty hard to pass up I don't mind if you want to put something on the money line here similar to other spots But and I do show value there But it's not as big of a value as what I have on the Texans money line or another model money line We'll talk about later on so I'm okay going with the just the points here taken seven and a half It's minus 118 Packers plus seven and a half a bet for me in the wildcard round. I'm excited to watch them I'm excited to root for them They're an objectively very fun team and they have a very bright future But I also think they're good right now as well And I think they deserve more respect than what they've gotten so far So we'll add the Packers plus seven and a half at minus 118 at Bandual sports book in this game As far as the total goes already talked about that again stay away from me But I will take the Packers plus seven and a half in this game Let's talk now about what could be the headliner for wildcard weekend. That is a rams at the Lions, of course a Jared Goff Matthew Stafford Sean McVeigh Brad Holmes revenge game here Josh Reynolds revenge game if you want to toss that into It's the revenge is revenge game of all time And I'm very excited to watch this game. It is now the Lions minus three and a half That was minus three earlier on today. I think that movement is correct I didn't have a strong lean towards the Lions. Honestly, no Sam Laporta in this game likely for the Lions that does downgrade them I've got the fear by three point seven so the three and a half. I think makes a lot of sense But either way it says to me the spread is a stay away here. I think it's pretty efficient Don't really want you to root against either team in this game So okay staying away there as far as a total I do show value in the under It's not in the value where I am leaping to take it right now I've got this game at forty eight point eight in my model Which is a very big number when you consider that this game doesn't have a huge spread But that's also two point eight two point eight points below the market 51 is a key number. It's like you could justify the under Personally, I'd rather wait to see if we get a 52 which I think we could get in this game Just based on how fun this one is we could see a lot of talk around this game and you know people talking about how Offensive friendly this game could be both these teams have played towards the over so far this year in general So I would not be shocked if this total does go up So similar to Texans versus Browns I want to take a wait and see approach in the total if it goes up I will likely snag the under but it's 51 and a half. I'm okay staying away and just enjoying a very fun game should be a banger the spread were to Tighten a bit which it doesn't look like it will then maybe I'd wind up on the Lions But for now, it's a stay away from me sit back and enjoy the game if it were to go up I would be willing to take the under but for right now. It's just a very fun game Rams Lions It's one of those games where when you run the model You're kind of hoping you don't show values You can just sit back and enjoy the game and I do show that in the under But we'll just we'll just kind of watch it for now and see where the market moves Final game of this week is a very interesting slash Confusing game that is the Eagles taking on the Bucks right now Fandals sportsbook Eagles favor by two and a half total in this game is 44 eight mile per hour wins in this game So not as big of a weather concern as we have for either the bill's game or the cheese game I do not know how to handle the Eagles because Devontae Smith and AJ Brown are both banged up I'm not sure what their status looks like for this game. I think there's a chance both guys play and now Jill and Hertz has a finger injury that is all less than ideal So what I'm going to do is keep the Eagles a status quo Because my model has been lower than the market on the Eagles all year long at times earlier this year is to my detriment It's been much better recently in doing that So I figured if I keep them status quo despite their injuries and I I show value in the Eagles I can just back off and say okay Let's see how the injuries play out this week and potentially bet them later on but when I run them status quo I see value on the opposing side in the Buccaneers and that to me is a signal that I can buy into what the model is saying knowing There is some room for downward mobility on the Eagles and that is the case here So I show value on the Bucs and I want to take the same thing here as with the Texans Taking the two and a half pairing that with their money line In order to get upward mobility should the Bucs win this game outright as we discussed I've got two models one of which is very heavy on passing efficiency, which I think it's the better model It's the model at back test better The other one though I think it's a good one to look at for the Buccaneers because it penalizes them for how dependent they are on late-down magic It's been a problem for them all year long where they've kind of said, okay First and second down run the football despite the fact we have a terrible rushing offense and we'll see what happens Terrible approach don't think they should do that and this model penalizes them for that But that model which should view the Bucs in a very negative light Still it's a Bucs favorite outright in this game and the other model is right in line with that as well And again, that's even without adjusting the Eagles down a ton for their injuries I don't really want to have money riding a Baker Mayfield in the spot like this because there's always a risk that he reverts Back to bad Baker banged up with both a rib and it looked like an ankle injury on Sunday but I do think the market is too high on the Eagles here and I Think the Bucs have been pretty good to us this year So I see enough here to justify going back at least one more time Backing the Buccaneers in this game. So similar to the Texans. This is one where I want to split my units I would put enough on the spread to profit in case the Buccaneers cover the two and a half and then put the rest in the money line To give myself more upside should they win this game out? I think that's the proper way to play things here and I do agree with the model I'm thinking that the Bucs are the right side here So Buccaneers plus two and a half is minus one oh five right now at Vandals sportsbook Their money line is plus 126 will pair those together and get action on the Bucs in this game Totals a stay away from me pretty efficient market. I've got this at forty three point six market is 44 So no action there for me So the actual spots where I show value for this week and I'm willing to agree with what the model is saying I'll take the Texans plus two and a half minus one or plus two and a half to cover that game and then pair that with the money line at Plus 124 and they're matching with the Cleveland Browns Lairing those together where we profit if they cover and get more upside should they win the game outright? Taking the over for Steelers and Bills over 35 and a half minus 105 right now If you want to hold off and see if you get a better number of people keep on pushing that total down because of the weather Go ahead totally make sense and then packers plus seven and a half and minus one eighteen at Vandals sportsbook in the game with the Cowboys and then Buccaneers plus two and a half and minus one oh five paired with their money line at plus 126 again Given the uncertainty around the Eagles the fact that I'm keeping them pretty status quo and still showing value We'll go that way so those are four spots where I'm showing value and I agreed the model for this week Keep an eye on the total for Texans Browns if it goes up a bit more take the under keep an eye on the total for Lions and Rams if you want to take the under should it go up a bit more I probably will personally but I don't want to you know force you to have less fun But those are the two spots where we could see some value later on this week We're gonna go back through last week's Recommendations here on the show tomorrow want to get the national championship game stuff in there as well So you want to hear a recap of this past week tune in them four and a week from me Which is a good way to finish off the regular season full recap coming up tomorrow You find that on the covering the spread podcast feed Wherever you get your podcasts fandal TV plus and the family YouTube page as well as we'll talk to Ryan Williams To get his reading the futures market entering the NFL playoffs if you've got questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis. You can find me on threads at Jim dots on us And you can find a fan to a research on Twitter at fan to a research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across the national championship game Enjoy, we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to get in some futures discussion before the playoffs This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network