 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a whole lot of action across majorly baseball for tonight But I believe 16 total games because there is one double header in the mix there as well So a lot of options both from money lines and for strikeout props What we'll do for today is dig into what my numbers are saying about those markets for today outline Three money lines and three strikeout props I like now over at Fandall sportsbook and discuss whether to bet them now whether to bet them later and how to view the market Overall at Fandall for today. Welcome on into covering the spread. That's part of the Fandall podcast network My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a digital media managing editor for Fandall research here to take a look at tonight's MLB slate May betting perspective and break down my favorite money lines and strikeout props over at Fandall sportsbook We'll think of all that start with the money lines here In just one second a first-day reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast you can find us Apple podcast Spotify you name it We are there if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcast or Spotify And as a reminder with these shows are going up now over on Fandall TV plus on Amazon fire Apple TV And your Roku device if you want to watch this alongside up in Adams the solo shot all those other shows Run it back as well all in one place on Fandall TV plus a download that app Check us out there or check us out over on the Fandall YouTube page Have you ever started a player in your fantasy lineup who score three points while someone on your bench puts up 20 well If Fandall is NFL best ball drafts You don't have to worry about that your draft your team and each week the highest scoring lineup from your roster We'll be used to the battle for first place all season long leagues Can be free to play or for money and range from three to twelve dollars or three twelve players the NFL season will be here before you Know it so head over to Fandall today and get it on the action eligibility restrictions apply Honestly as someone who despises waivers and season long leagues best ball is great So highly recommend checking that out over at Fandall dot com Let's take a look now tonight's NLB slate over at Fandall sports We can break down where I'm seeing value beginning with the money lines and the first one is one of these East Coast games That is the Baltimore Orioles taking on Houston Astros right now the Orioles money line is plus 112 It was plus 116 last night plus 114 earlier on this is kind of Fandall just moving towards the market Got the Orioles around 110. I think a plus 112. That's still a good value in one I'd be willing to take here in betting the Orioles to win this game My model actually does make the Orioles a favorites here So getting plus 112 even still pretty attractive Grayson Rodriguez starting here for the Orioles He hasn't had amazing results as he came back up But his peripherals are much better than they were the first time around he has a 4.04 skill interactive Yeah, right across four starts back with the majors and getting a lot of ground balls 56% ground ball rate across those four starts and obviously the issue with a four-star sample is There's a lot of competition issues You could have faced a lot of soft teams and stuff like that But the teams that Rodriguez faced and there were the Yankees who we didn't enter and judge That's not a great. That's an easy match up there other ones Though were the Dodgers the Rays and the Blue Jays all very impressive teams even against righties The strikeouts for Rodriguez have crept up a bit in this span as well Which means that he's starting to flash the potential he had coming into this year on the opposing side is from Breval Des He is an awesome pitcher. I hate betting against from Breval Des because he is fantastic But the Orioles active roster pretty good against lefties. They have a 108 WRC plus there Whereas the Astros are actually at 102 against righties. So I Again have the Orioles favorite in this game. They're plus 112 on the money line right now I think that is advantage enough and I agree with the model's assessment of this game So the Orioles plus 112 the first money line bet for me for today Second one is going to be in the Braves versus Pirates game The Pirates are plus 138 to win this game And if I want to bet the Pirates that means I am betting on Mitch Keller facing the Braves offense and with the way the Keller's recent stretch recent two or three months have gone That ain't great But I do still think the Pirates are a bit undervalued in this matchup at plus 138 If we look at the 13 start sample on Keller since he started to use more sliders He has a 5.9 to ERA really really rough over a pretty large sample But the peripherals when you look at FIP X FIP skill interactive ERA, whatever it may be They all say his ERA should be at least a full run lower than where it currently is The Braves starting Yanichurinos here. He was let go by the Rays for a reason You know, there was a reason he didn't have a spot in the rotation Even the bullpen Braves picked him up his first two games with the Rays Braves Haven't really changed my prior on Yanichurinos as of yet Pirates offense still 102 WRC plus against righties on the current active roster So they're not slouches by any means So I would not be shocked the Pirates pull off another stunner like they did last night when they pummeled Spencer Strider I used Strider in DFS that was not fun, but I think the Pirates could be interesting for today as well This one has moved in what was plus 136 now plus 138 So check out where the market is when you pull up your app. See if the Pirates are still plus 138 at that point You know, you know if we're talking 10 o'clock in the morning 11 o'clock, and they're still plus 138 I would take it there because it implies the market is stagnated there But I would at least check it out and see maybe you can get a better number later on But even if it's just plus 138, I'm comfortable taking the Pirates where they're at right now Final money line for today is also not a super fun one that betting against the Astros betting against the Braves and And for Emperor Valdez betting against all these these people I like in this time we're betting against the Dodgers With a team that has been brutal since the trade deadline in the Arizona Dime of Acts but I Think that again the market is a bit too low on This team right now potentially an overreaction to how they played recently Brandon Fott making the start here for the Dime of Acts his first few starts back up from the miners have been good The results have been good, but I would say they've been fluky. He's still letting up a lot of hard contact But he's managed decent results But our contact also is not everything so even though I would classify those threats as being fluky And I don't think he can sustain that I do think he looks better than what he did His first time and his second time up in the majors as well He started to get some of the strikeouts that we thought he would get when he came up the first time for the Dime of Acts He had seven strikeouts last week against the Giants on the road now. He goes home It's obviously a tough matchup, but the Giants are pretty tough as well and this one facing Julio Arias ever since he came back off the IL a six-star sample his velocity has been down and He is doing a great job of suppressing hard contact something Arias had done for a very long time That's kind of the one thing that's been in Arias's favor during this time everything else pretty average in the span So I understand why the market is here You know if you're watching over on Fandals YouTube page or Fandal TV plus you can see the Dime of Acts game log They've lost. I think it's more than five straight. I think it's six or seven straight at this point It's been a rough stretch for sure, but I don't think they're as bad as they played So I think the market's a bit too aggressive and downplaying Arizona here, especially if we allow for some improvement in fought I'm not projecting improvement, but it's a possibility for sure So I think the Diamondbacks money line plus 134 a good way to go So the three money lines I like for today the Diamondbacks at plus 134 the pirates of plus 138 and the Orioles at plus 112 all available Over at Fandals sportsbook. Let's take in now to some strikeout props for today The first one is the Boston Red Sox taking on the Kansas City Royals. We could cutter Crawford here Facing off against Brady Singer. I actually think there is a bit of appeal in both strikeout overs for these two guys Singer you can get three and a half at some books for an outfit Vandal plus 126 in the over I would take the three and a half if available Crawford over four and a half is minus 128 at Vandal You can get that even a bit softer in some other spots So I think both these guys you shop around Singer and Crawford are attractive when it comes to strikeout Overs for tonight Crawford, I have him for a middling pitch count And even with that middling pitch count this number to still teams too low I have Crawford projected for 87 pitches for tonight and despite that I still think there is value in the over based on what my model is saying across the past six starts Crawford has been throwing more cutters and in that time He has a 26.3 percent strikeout rates and that's allowed and hit the over on Four and a half strikeouts and four out of six starts. That's even while making four of those six starts on the road He's now at home taking on the Royals the Royals active roster not as big of a strikeout target as they were before They've cut down that a bit, but it's still not low. It's about average against righties right now So even if the best number you can get on Crawford over four and a half is minus 128 at Fandle I still think the over here is very very viable. So I think I dig into Crawford Maybe singer as well again, you can get three and a half and that's always gonna be a better more attractive number He's been a lot better recently So singer and Crawford two guys a target but Crawford the official recommendation here and minus 120 over Four and a half Fandle sportsbook as always though do shop around next step as far as strikeout props go Let's talk about the White Sox and the Yankees White Sox are in Tuki Tucson Tucson's is a tough guy to nail down because his pitch counts are kind of all over the map he has made six starts this year and He went 98 pitches last time out and 107 in another start But he has had less or fewer than 90 pitches in his other four starts. So It's not a given that he goes super long in this game I do him projected with a pretty high pitch count because he can do that But it's not a given by any means if we look at Tucson's as both a reliever and a starter He's had some pretty long relief outings. He has a twenty one point six percent strikeout rates Which is a decent number probably not going to get you to five and a half strikeouts super often But like, you know, it's decent with the large pitch count But it also comes with a fifteen point three percent walk rate and the issue with that is it drives those pitch counts And they're hurry and can lead to unders even when a guy is getting a lot of with saw the Dylan sees last night He was getting a lot of whiffs But he walked seven guys and it resulted in his strikeout prop going under Seven and a half because he had just six strikeouts due to all the walks and Tucson's has a pretty similar issue If we look at seven outings for Tucson with 80 plus pitches whether as a reliever or a starter Tucson has hit over four and a half strikeouts just once and he's gotten to five strikeouts Just one additional time So he did also have five strikeouts on a lower pitch count in relief once as well so he's gotten to One or a half strikeout below this number three total times and he's gone above it just once in ten total outings again Some of those in relief, but still even as a starter. He has not been hitting over five and a half super often I have to some projected for four point nine seven strikeouts Which is low enough for me to lay some juice on the under again under five and a strikeouts Or Tucson is minus one forty sixes Fandal as always shop around find the best number you can get But I do think that is a good number to take as of right now Final strikeout prop I like for tonight is what he could potentially turn into a same game parlay Over at Fandal sports book and that is in the Brewers versus Rockies game I actually do show value on the Brewers money line at minus two fifteen in one of my models other one Which is a bit less aggressive does not show value there, but it is pretty close the less aggressive model. Let me see here Less aggressive model has the Brewers win odds at seventy one percent Whereas the other one seventy three percent, which is really really really high And I don't get there very often I'm typically finding value underdogs with my numbers But I do show value in the Brewers here at minus two fifteen You could potentially pair there with a third strikeout prop of the night Which is Kyle of Freeland under four and a half at minus one thirty two if you make that a same game parlay over at Fandal sports book It's plus one thirty six you take the money line at minus two fifteen and turn it into Plus one thirty six obviously if they win It's not a guarantee this bet caches, but I do think that because These two bets do mesh pretty well together I think it makes a lot of sense to consider pairing them together the same game parlay even though as we You know, that's not typically how I tend to play things Let's talk here about the Freeland aspect of this as a standalone option under four and a half strikeouts I think this number is so high because the Brewers had this reputation for being a massively high strikeout team against lefties Which they have been for this entirety of this year So if you look at season long numbers, they definitely are but they made a lot of moves at the all-star break And it's cut back on their strikeout right against lefties in a pretty significant way their current active roster has just a 22.3% strikeout rate against lefties this year They added Carlos Santana who is a guy who draws a lot of walks against lefties does not strike out He's not a big power guy against lefties. That's more so against righties But he does draw a lot of walks drives the pitch counts and does not strike out That's a big addition to this roster to cut back on their strikeout rate against lefties Freeland has been off the aisle for two starts now and he had six strikeouts in one of those games Which is very impressive but typically his strikeout rate dips a big time on the road and that game isn't home He's on the road here and the home road splits have been true this year I'll be in a very small sample so I wouldn't put a ton of stock into it But it does matter at least to an extent. I think the strikeout prop should be three and a half Honestly when you consider where the Brewers offense is currently at when you consider Where Freeland typically lives may strike out perspective. I think four and a half is really really aggressive So under four and a half minus 132 the way I'd want to go with Kyle Freeland again If you want to take some action on the Brewers money line, I do think that minus 215 is solid there and the same game partly of that is going to be Plus 136 over at fangirls sports, but I also do think that is at least in play for today So the strikeout props tonight Kyle Freeland under four nests right guys minus 132 Tuki Tucson number five an a strikeouts minus 146 and cutter Crawford over four nests strikeouts minus 128 As always shop around with all those to make sure you are getting the best price That is all that we have here for today here on covering the spread We're gonna get back to some EPL later on this week Austin Cass is gonna swing by we're talking about match week number one That's coming up on Thursday while Rob Freeland pitching Ninja back on Friday I'll talk some NASCAR coming up on Thursday with a big weekend there on Indy So a lot of fun stuff coming up later on this week on covering the spread Make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast Check us out on the fendal YouTube page and fendal TV plus as well If you've got any questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I am s a NNES You can also follow fendal research at fendal research. Thank you all for tuning in This has been covering the spread part of the fendal podcast network