 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a big week on tap in the NFL and luckily for us a lot of the biggest games are ones where I am seeing value in the opening Lions over at Fandall sportsbook I've got some reads on the Vikings and the Packers got some stuff on the Bengals and the Bills We're gonna run through I've did a power rankings Entering week 17 breakdown what they're saying about those games and get a read on where the value lies in week 17 At Fandall sportsbook. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire comm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm You're to take a look at my up to the power rankings breakdown NFL week number 17 And also recap what went down this past week in the NFL should be a fun one I think some pretty good spots for value this week in betting on teams That's just something in the line where I think there's value before you even consider the motivation They may have at play for this week We'll dive into all that in just a bit first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast because we got three shows coming up this week this one We also have a semi-final breakdown for college football coming tomorrow and our full NFL week 17 preview Coming up on Thursday So three shows this week with the abbreviated timeline due to the holidays back to a more regular schedule next week As we get set for the playoffs and week 18 in the NFL So search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well And also you can find all these up on the Fandall YouTube page the week 17 NFL Fandall Sunday million for daily fantasy is officially live on Fandall Showcase your NFL knowledge and construct your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap Then follow along using Fandals live scoring feature to compete for your share of one million dollars in cash prizes including a cool $200,000 to first place all for an entropy of just five dollars no shortage of big names on the slate for this week Sunday is approaching quickly. So go to Fandall and submit your line-ups today eligibility restrictions apply go to fandall.com or download the Fandall app for more details Now start things off this week by taking a look at updated power rankings based on what my numbers say for it this week because They actually do tell us a key story and looking at that Monday night match But huge one here between the bills and the Bengals Bengals host in this game And if I look at my traditional model, I've got the Bengals a hair ahead of the bills after injury adjustments in my newer model It's been the bills up top for the whole year pretty much They've been the number one team almost this entire year But entering week 17 the Bengals are actually first there now They're not there straight up because the bills hold the edge there once you account for Jumar Chase being healthy him being back to Higgins being healthy and also the scheme change that Bengals made in week five Their awesome offensive efficiency numbers are unhinged and how good they are So even though Buffalo is first overall for me in that model when I run my numbers straight Both these numbers say the Bengals should be favored in this game Moneyline right now if annual sportsbook is minus 102 you can still get plus money seen minus or plus 105 at other spots so Shop around but I think the Bengals moneyline is very enticing and honestly too if you're looking at like Super Bowl markets The Bengals could still get the the first round by right now They're a game out which means they would need the cheese to lose One of their final two games to make up that ground They do all the tiebreaker over the cheese and if they win this game They'd hold the tiebreaker over the bills as well. So it's possible They wind up getting that first round by Super Bowl odds for the Bengals now eight to one I think given that it is a longer road for them to get that first overall seed Maybe you don't want to buy in just now But I do think that eight to one is enticing and I think they're good enough to do it all So the Bengals to me at the top of the power rankings Really really enticing the team that I am very accept to do and the other model has Kansas City first still So that that remains the same there But the change with the Bengals after adjusting for injuries I thought it was very intriguing especially as it pertains that bills match up this week other team I wanted to highlight here in terms of trying to find a team that has upside But may not have shown it thus far is actually the Ravens I've currently got Lamar Jackson projected as playing this week if I project him as in The Ravens actually a ranked seventh in my newer model Not really sure I feel about that now because on the one hand Every team beyond the top six is kind of in its own tier. So you got the top six That's Kansas City Buffalo, Sinsi, Philly, Dallas and San Francisco those teams. They're all up there They're gonna be the top teams act that seven through like 19 the gap there is not all that large So they're effectively at the top of the second tier But the fact that they are at the top there I think is at least somewhat intriguing in my traditional model the Ravens are just 12 So that one is not as high on them But I think that they have upside once the Marjaxon gets healthy the defense playing very good football right now They shut down some, you know, impressive teams Roku on Smith being there I think it's actually made a bit of a difference They don't need all their playmakers healthy on offense to move the football JK Dobbins being back I think has helped them a bit too. So I Have interest in the Ravens once the playoffs start now this week Specifically, I'm not trying to buy in because my numbers are also pretty high on the Steelers relative to where the consensus has them So Steelers better than perception to so for week 17 specifically Nothing super actionable on the Ravens runs, but you know, I think they've got upside They're currently 21 to 1 to win the whole thing over a Fandals sportsbook right now That puts them behind just the Vikings among the teams in that second tier So they're kind of properly rated there But I think that it's important to reiterate this team does have upside once they get healthy and I think I want to Kind of keep that in my mind and remind myself of that for when we get to the playoffs because I do think there is Potential for the Ravens to still be a legitimate contender once we get into the playoffs and Lamar Jackson is fully healthy So biggest takeaway for me is the back in the Bengals on that game that single game But also taking a look at the Ravens once we get into the postseason now Let's look specifically at week 17 and digging to where my numbers show value for this week We talked already about the Bengals money line. That's the first one next one is the Detroit Lions facing off against the Bears They're favorite by five and a half in that game And I'm okay laying the points because the Bears defense just super banged up right now Like they've got some fun guys that they've added this year in the draft and I think that like long term It could be okay, but they lost a lot of guys throughout the year super banged up in the Lions are Weirdly healthy right now Even though they lost that game in pretty awful fashion against the Panthers last week Jared Goff was still super super efficient that game was on the road in 10 mile per hour wins Goff had high efficiency stats as a passer now goes back at home We saw the the Lions beat the Bears already once on the road without DJ shark and now they go back at home They've got shark this offense is humming and it's a big game for the Lions They need this one to steal the shot the playoffs They've got that big game with the Packers coming up in week 18, but they need to win this game I think if you were looking for concerns around backing the Lions here be the Bears rushing offense is very good We saw the Lions get bullied by the Panthers last week. I think the Bears rushing offense is better than the Panthers So that could be a concern especially with Khalil Herbert being back They've got two legit running backs and then a tremendous rushing quarterback as well So that could be a concern for the five and a half But my older model has this one the spread closer to ten here that might be kind of aggressive My other one has it at seven. I think that's probably closer to being right That was a bit lower on the Lions because it doesn't weigh passing efficiency quite as heavily But I think five and a half is still a value regardless I will lay the five and a half with the Lions as they go back home for this week I'm also gonna lay the points with the Giants They are favored by three and a half against the Colts. My model has this at six point nine now This is mostly about the Colts Nick falls last night I think remind this why he was a third stringer at certain points this year behind Sam Ellinger behind Matt Ryan Really struggled there a lot of mistakes and I probably would have been on the Giants regardless I think it's kind of just nice confirmation bias that we can feel pretty good about using you know bedding against the Colts team With where they're at right now. They were a rough offense under Ellinger rough offense under Ryan I think we saw it last night that Nick falls is not a guy who's gonna buck those trends So if I run things straight it says the Giants should be fair by about six point nine here the Colts defense is fine It's okay, but it's not a legit needle mover for me The Giants have been a team that they've been hanging against tough teams like, you know, the Vikings are flawed for sure we'll talk about that later on but Putting up that many points against them. I think is encouraging sake one Barkley is playing well once again I think the Giants with the playoffs on the line, you know, they've got a cushion They could they could lose this game and still be in but they're fighting for the playoffs The Colts are not I think three and a half is more than fine to pay So we're in Kind of that dead zone between key numbers between three and seven both the Lions and the Giants But with the Giants of three point five lie the Lions at five point five I'm okay laying both those and taking the favorites in those two games as far as an underdog I like this week my numbers like the Rams a lot in the battle of LA a plus six and a half I think the hesitancy I have here is that this could get to seven I think it's more likely to shorten than lengthen though because there is no home field advantage in this game It's neutral side game. No travel for the Rams That's the key thing that matters more for me more so than the crowd is a fans and Is a travel and there's no travel for either team here. So neutral side game this Chargers offense They put up 20 against the Colts, but like they weren't that impressive. They were fine They're not a very explosive team, which means it's harder for them to cover a big number They're probably not gonna blow up offensively. We've seen this Rams team be eliminated for a month now and they played hard continually I think that the my Christmas day game against the Broncos a lot of stuff just went their way there I don't I think that was more of a fluke, but they're playing hard the Chargers don't have a ton of Milan right now They're playing just for seeding. They could be the five six or the seven seed in the ASC So not a bunch on the line for them. I think this should be closer You know well under six is what I would say with this one. So Again, there is a chance we could get to seven here. That's always a possibility I just don't think it's a huge possibility and I think there's a an equal chance and moves the other way so I will take the six and a half here with the Rams and Bet on them again, you know betting on Baker Mayfield to put up two consecutive good performances What could go wrong there? But I think this number just a bit too big based on the lack of explosiveness for the Chargers and How hard the Rams are still playing now one of the bigger games this week is in Lambo That's for the Packers and the Vikings and I've got a couple of reads on this game right now One of them is the Vikings their plus three at even money at Vandals sportsbook in the under at 46 and a half at minus 110. I like both those you can still get some 47s out there So as always shop around before betting this over at Vandals sportsbook, but Both these teams are slow the Packers run the clock down to zero every Single play and that drains clock that keeps games shorter We saw in that Miami game they were tracking towards a super high total early on but it finished at 46 points That's because they run at a sluggish pace It's the slowest game of the week based on the numbers of Brandon Cadula runs over a number fire Which is the ones I use in my total model the forecast is fine here, you know, it's in Green Bay It's outdoors, but 34 degree temperatures nine mile per hour winds. That's not too bad. We're not accounting for that here But I just don't see a lot of points now. The team is a huge offensive juggernaut. They're both okay Now their defense is outliersly bad of the Vikings are kind of flirting with that I guess and the Packers kind of are two at times You know again, I think that the under is a better play here at 46 and half again Check for 47 if you can get that as far as the Vikings specifically my numbers are not high on them They rank ninth in my one model and 13th in the other. So they're a middling team. They're okay They're near the top end of that second tier. They're fine But they're either ahead of or right behind Green Bay in both these models, which means I've got it under a field goal in both these in both models You could go money line here. That's plus 162 over a Vandal sportsbook I am showing a lot of value there But I kind of want to take advantage of the fact this game is Potentially going to be lower scoring then then the bookmakers expect I think it'll be a tight game So I do want to take the points here with the plus three on Minnesota If you decide you wanted to pull the same game parley on that over a Vandal sportsbook You could pair the plus three and the under 46 and a half together you get plus 231 on that I'm fine with that not a huge parlay or same game parlay guy But I'd prefer to go with the straight bets personally But if you want to go the same game parlay get a better number on that That's okay as well But I will go with the straight bets of plus three and under 46 and a half The other total where I'm seeing value right now a good amount of value is the Patriots and the Dolphins That's at 42 and a half right now. I want the under on that one After really into a tongue of it low out my numbers put that at that number under 40 So I think taking the under here gives you a lot of leeway especially 42 being a semi-key number in 41 Being a key number two getting across a couple of them while still getting the under here we saw the Dolphins offense without to a earlier on this year and They struggled quite a bit. I know that you know one of those games Teddy got hurt. I'm like the first play You know, it's tough to game plan around that scholar Thompson had an injury as well So there were some circumstances. I think made them a bit worse than they actually are But this offense has been sputtering even with to a recently the Patriots offense is not explosive They're not gonna generate a ton of points by themselves even against a very flawed Miami defense They've scored a bunch of defense and touchdowns this year I think I've scored like eight or so which is unreal. That's always risk, but it also is Probably unsustainable. I say probably because it's Bill Belichick who is kind of like a defense of special teams mastermind I want to give him proper credit for that, but I feel like this number is is a bit too high I'm not high on either offense after kind of for injuries. It's not a fast pace Eight mile per hour wins here. That's a downgrade So I think the under is the right play here So under 42 and a half the way I want to go with the Dolphins and the Patriots after assuming to a tongue of Iloa is out Super unfortunate situation with him. I hope he's okay because it's very scary. What's going on with him? But I do want to take the under on this game there are a couple spots where I'm waiting injury news and Could potentially add them later on once I get a better read on whether certain guys are going to play Those are Seattle plus two and a half against the Jets Jackson minus Morgan Houston and the Tennessee plus 10 against Dallas The Seattle one is title lock it related because lock it is a very very good football player And if you take him out of this the Seattle offense, it's probably not gonna go super well We saw them put up just 10 against Kansas City There was wind in that game a decent amount of wins that does matter Marquis Goodwin who was effectively the number two wide receiver in that game He got banged up at a certain point too So a lot of tough circumstances for them in that game, and I want to hold the too far against them I'm showing quite a bit of value on Seattle right now. So Maybe I would bet this even if lock it doesn't wind up playing but I'd rather get a good read on him first before Deciding to proceed on that one with Seattle plus two and a half Jackson minus Morgan Houston That depends on who's gonna play in this game for Jacksonville because as with Tennessee It all hinges on what happens for them next week week 18 when they face off against each other I've got Derek I've got Malik Willis in the starter for Tennessee right now And that does still shows of that still show value on Tennessee But I think there's a legit chance they said Derek Henry this one Do we seem to actually do that before where they had a big game in the final game of the year? Nothing on the line the game before that say it sat out Derek Henry and decided to go that way It would not surprise me at all if they do that once again Thursday Especially Mike Rable said Monday that hey, it's a tight turnaround You know trying to get him back in there might be tough Kind of telling you all you need to know with that one So I would not be shocked if Derek Henry sits out and if he does I think that actually would hurt Tennessee as well so probably not taking Tennessee plus 10 probably not taking Jackson minus Morgan Houston either because Maybe they decide to sit some guys my model has been a bit too low on Houston regardless recently So kind of gives me a nice out not bet against them there once again So I do think Seattle plus two and a half is the one I am most likely to take once they get a read on kind of lock itself I'd be most likely to go money line on that one But I want to get a read on hand before I decided dive into that one The one total where I'm waiting injury news is for Baltimore Pittsburgh I want to see if Lamar plays because that total is 36 right now wind speeds of eight miles per hour I've got that close to the 40 So I do like the over for the Ravens and the Steelers on Sunday night, but I want to get a read on Lamar first if you practice is Wednesday I'll probably take the over there Even if it gets up to like 37 and a half I would still take the over if we get Lamar in practice on Wednesday I feel good about that, but I want to get a read on him first So the two most likely ads me this week would be Seattle money line against the Jets Once we get news and title lock it and then over on Steelers Ravens If we get confirmation Lamar would play I take that over up to 37 and a half The over on that so to recap things I am taking right now based on my numbers and based on the current odds of fangirls sportsbook I do like the Lions minus five and a half against the Bears like the Giants minus three and a half against the Colts I want the Bengals money line again minus one and two at fangirl plus one oh five elsewhere against the bills I like the Rams plus six and a half against the Chargers Vikings plus three against the Packers and the under in that game at 46 and a half And then the Patriots and Dolphins under 42 and a half With no to a tongue of Iloa for the Dolphins in that game So pretty meaty week for this week as far as where I'm seeing value But a lot of them are betting on teams with a lot in the line. I don't mind that so Not really accounting for that too much because you know, it's still the NFL teams play hard regardless But yet in the anecdotal factor makes you feel better about buying into spots Right already see value before accounting for that No, that's all we got here for the week 17 at first look back once again on Thursday to break down a full read on Week 17 we'll get to that later on but for right now Let's go back to last week and recap what went down here on the show on covering the spread I had a solid week despite having I think a really bad read on two quarterback situations. Let's start with that because I talked about that how there were three teams. I thought were interesting for teasers last week those teams and again I'm not a big teaser guy just happened to be a lot of teams that fit with the key numbers and Were values in my model those teams were the 49ers the Ravens and the Titans I said the Titans released appealing because I was worried about Ryan Tannehill and his injury and I should have been more worried because he did wind up sitting and I think the reason why I'm annoyed with myself for this one is because I saw that game I saw him get hurt and I saw him get carded off and even though he came back in I should have realized how likely it was that Tannehill would sit It became very obvious on Tuesday that I had the wrong read So hopefully you saw that one move got the read and avoided it But I should have had a better read on that one to begin with they lost that game outright I still flubbed it. So that was frustrating to Mystery that situation especially because I saw that game and saw that that injury was The other mystery was Lamar Jackson. I thought Tuesday he was going to play and he never practiced never even got closed So they still covered was seven. They covered they won by eight. So they won the straight They wanted straight or covered straight up. They covered the teaser legs so to the 49ers at minus one and a half, but I mess read those situations the Ravens and Titans that frustrated me But if you bet the 49ers straight up Minus seven and a half that the Ravens straight or put those two teams in a teaser together You were good to go But I do feel like I misread the Titans in the Ravens quarterback situation So that's always frustrating to not have a good read on those but results were fine with two of them Despite that other two Other bets went well Went two and one in those I had the lions minus two and a half the saints plus three and the chargers colds under 46 and a half Lions flopped pretty badly But the saints won that game outright by seven chargers colds finished with just 23 points So good results this week, which was nice encouraging by that I will happily take that and it's nice to Get good results when you make mistakes because sometimes you get bad results when you when you play things well So to get good results and you make mistakes, I'll take that for sure Be pretty happy with how things played out for me last week All right, if I'll guest this past week was austin swain You can check him out on twitter at a swing three is a writer for us over at number fire dot com One and four week for austin. He got the win in the lions panthers game where I misread it so kudos to austin there. He was Uh, the better read on the sam dardled impact for the panthers That running game beating up the lions defense I was a little bit higher in the lions defense thinking they had made some gains Uh ever since that, you know midway through the year They've been showing improvement on defense clearly that was fluky because it it all evaporated in that game So good read by austin on panthers plus two and a half as they won that game outright other ones With the jets minus one and a half we saw some money coming in the jets that uh later on so Got movement commanders plus seven and a half it moved to seven. I believe that close Eagles plus four and a half went back to five and a half and then broncos minus two and a half So what if overall but did get some good movement on the jets and the commanders Um did get the good result with the panthers as well But he did read that game better than I did for the lions and the panthers again Check out austin on twitter at a swain three That's all that we have here for today on covering the spread as mentioned. We are back once again tomorrow We're gonna talk about the college football playoff semifinals get the get a read on those try to get you some good bets In both those games get you ready for which should be a fun day of football Coming up this saturday to get all that podcast and all of our podcasts as they go live Here on covering the spread make sure you are subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well You can also get these shows over on the fandal youtube page. If you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis and j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across the next couple of days We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down the college football playoff semifinals This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network