 Hey everyone, this is Dan with another episode of my Moderna and BioNTech video. The stock prices of Moderna and BioNTech dropped quite a bit in the last few days from the all-time highs. Is it a time to sell to protect your profit or maybe you should now buy on the dip? I'll tell you, I spent the last few days analyzing the facts and data about the recent developments related to COVID-19. And lo and behold, I found a few things that have not been identified by any of the professional analysts. As a result, I bought Moderna and BioNTech shares today. Let me tell you why. First of all, let me review my price forecast from my last video that was posted on June 22nd, 2021. At the time, I predicted Moderna to be $220 BioNTech at $250 before the end of September, 2021. And the day before June 22nd, Moderna closed at 208 and BioNTech at 226, quite a distance from my targets. And also today, Moderna already exceeded my target and BioNTech came down and I was saying why. Also a few days ago, I increased my price target for Moderna to $250 a share by the end of September, 2021. Will I be forecasting new targets for these two stocks? I will talk about it in the next few minutes. Stay tuned. Let's go into the details. In the next few minutes, I'll be talking about different types of COVID vaccines. This approach is very different from my previous videos because as I look more into the detail data and facts, I realized that it does make a difference as to what type of vaccine we're looking at. And I will explain more. It's a very important concept. The next thing I'll be looking at is the different vaccines, how they line up against a new Delta variant. And then we're looking at data for the US, UK, Israel, UAE, Portugal, China, Russia, and last but not the least, Singapore is going to be very interesting. And then we'll look at the analyst ratings and my own valuation of the two companies. And finally, I'll be talking about my new price targets. This is a slide that I've been using in my previous videos. This is a list of the major vaccines available in the world today. There are 10 different major vaccines. And most recently, I added co-vaccine, which has been used in India and also approved by eight or nine different other countries. And it's a two-dose vaccine and it's supposed to be 81% effective. The last one, which is not really in production yet is Novavax, but it's proven to be very promising. And they will probably get approval from the US and the EU during the fourth quarter of 2021. I will talk more about that later. Novavax might threaten the market share of Moderna and BioNTech. So we need to pay a lot of attention to Novavax. There are four types of COVID vaccines. They are the whole virus vaccines, the nucleic acid vaccines, the viral vector vaccines, and finally, the protein subunit vaccines. Let's get into the details. The whole virus vaccine are made of weakened or inactivated virus that they can trigger immunity responses from our bodies, but they cannot replicate and therefore they cannot harm us. Examples are Sinovac, Sinoform, both of them are made in China, and co-vaccines made in India and primarily used in India. A recent development about the whole virus type of vaccines is that UAE and Bahrain recently made Pfizer BioNTech shot available to those who got the Sinoform vaccine previously. And also Turkey started to offer COVID-19 booster shot after earlier using the Chinese vaccine, which are the whole virus vaccine and primarily Turkey will be using the BioNTech vaccine as a booster shot. And also they will offer Sinovac vaccine as a choice to the citizens. This is the newspaper from Thailand, Bangkok Post. Thailand recently approved 20 million doses of Pfizer vaccine and also additional doses of Sinovac as booster shots and they are also talking with Moderna to try and get more Moderna vaccines. Now this is the original number of doses ordered by Thailand as of March 1st of 2021. As you can see back then, they did not offer either Moderna or BioNTech, but now seeing the results from other countries, they realize that they now want to order BioNTech and Moderna vaccines. So that's positive development for Moderna and BioNTech. If you like what you've seen so far, I'd like to encourage you to click the like, subscribe and notification button. That'll encourage me to make more videos like this and it will help YouTube to direct more viewers to my channel. Thank you very much. Let's continue. The second type of vaccine is the nucleic acid vaccine or what we know as the mRNA vaccines. They use genetic material, either the RNA or DNA to trigger the immunity responses from our bodies. And usually they use the viral spike protein for that purpose. This type of vaccines include Moderna, BioNTech and also curavac. Although curavac has not been approved yet, actually the trial of curavac has not been very successful. I'll talk more about that later on. Just on July 5th, a few days ago, Israel said that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is less effective against the Delta variant and it's only 64% effective compared to 94.3% effective against the original version of the virus. The good news is that the BioNTech vaccine is still 93% effective against serious symptoms and hospitalization, although the vaccine is 98.2% effective against the original version of the virus. So the effectiveness is definitely diminished, although 93% is still pretty high. And because of this piece of news, BioNTech dropped quite a bit in the last few days. Just today, Pfizer announced that they would be developing a booster shot and they will be applying for authorization to commence with the trials in August of this year. And they emphasize that the latest developments with regard to the Delta variant emphasize the fact that we do need to have a booster shot or the third dose within 12 months of getting fully vaccinated. It's unfortunate that we have a very contagious variant now, the Delta variant, but from a commercial perspective, it is that boost to Moderna and BioNTech. And since we know both Moderna and BioNTech were the first to have viable vaccines approved by major countries such as the US and EU. And after this news is announced around 6 p.m. tonight, the stock price of BioNTech jumped up during aftermarket and that's the point when I bought additional shares of BioNTech. June 17, it was announced that the curavag failed in pivotal COVID-19 trial with only 47% effectiveness. Curavag uses the same technology as BioNTech and Moderna and how come curavag failed but BioNTech and Moderna are so successful. According to some of the scientists, they're saying that maybe because curavag use a dosage that's too low and also the way they process the messenger RNA is probably not as good as the way they do it at Moderna and BioNTech. That means this is less competition for Moderna and BioNTech from an investor's perspective. The next type of COVID vaccine is a viral vector type and with this type of vaccine, the genetic instructions are delivered to our bodies by way of a harmless virus that's injected to our bodies. This type of vaccine includes AstraZeneca, which is primarily using UK and many, many other countries worldwide. And Johnson and Johnson and also Sputnik V, which is developed by Russia and used in Russia as well as in many other countries. Johnson and Johnson has been approved by the United States but the usage has been very low at this point because of production constraint and also it's not as effective as BioNTech and Moderna. And then Cancino, that's a newer vaccine from China. It hasn't been widely used yet. And then the last type of vaccine is the protein subunit type. This type of vaccine uses pieces of the pathogen to trigger an immunity response. Novavax is a type of protein subunit vaccine. News about Novavax, the manufacturer said it's supposed to be 90% effective and they will submit data to FDA in the US during the third quarter of 2021. So far, they have signed a contract with Covax which is a consortium of countries that Covax already ordered 1.1 billion doses of Novavax. So once it's approved, it'll be a formidable challenge to BioNTech and Moderna. I have been watching this very closely. Let's talk about a Delta variant which is supposed to be a lot more contagious than any other variants we've seen so far. This is a table from Statista.com. It shows the countries where we see the most number of infections from the Delta variant. In UK, for example, 96.1% of the new cases belong to the Delta variant. In the US, 38.8% of cases. In Portugal, 71.8% and so on. Let's look at some of these countries. From there, we can actually see which vaccine is better, which vaccine is not. First of all, let's look at Israel. In Israel, 62.8% of the population already received the first dose and 57.3% of the population have been fully vaccinated. The Delta variant is 90% of the newly identified cases. That's pretty high. And so far they've been using mostly the BioNTech vaccine with some Moderna vaccine. If you look at that daily new cases, basically since April, it's almost at zero. Although this is very small uptake lately. So even though we saw that article from Israel saying that BioNTech is less effective against the Delta variant, but if you look at the chart, yeah, compared to here, which was almost zero, it's probably almost doubling the daily cases according to the article. But from the overall perspective, it's only very few cases from day to day. And now I'd like to use these data to set up a comparison table here. What I'm doing is that because it's apparently shown that the BioNTech vaccine or the mRNA vaccine has been very effective in Israel, that's why I'm giving the mRNA vaccine one point. Now I'm not trying to make light of this situation and try to run a beauty contest among the different vaccines. From the perspective of an investor, it's very important for us to be able to identify whether we are investing in the right places, especially like myself, I have substantial amount of money investing both Moderna and BioNTech. These countries, they are basically doing the same analysis, except they don't tell us that. Why? Because people want to be politically correct. Each of these vaccines is made by a country or maybe sometimes joined between two countries, like Pfizer, BioNTech. And some people might not feel comfortable to say, well, the vaccine from this country has been a vaccine from that country, but they do the analysis themselves and that's why we see certain countries starting to order more BioNTech and Moderna vaccine when they started out using a different type of vaccine. So I'm just doing what a lot of people are doing to make an intelligent decision about what is better and what is not. So let's continue with our comparison. At this point, because of the data from Israel, the mRNA type of vaccine got one point, whereas the other three vaccines I have not scored any point yet. Next country, United Kingdom. Well, we see quite an uptake here. That's not very good news. And 68.1% of the country received the first dose and 50.9% of the country have been fully vaccinated. Percentage wise about as high as Israel, but the situation is substantially worse than Israel. And of course, a percentage of Delta variant is 96.1% whereas in Israel is about 90%. That's kind of equivalent, but they are being hit a little bit more seriously by Delta variant than in Israel. Primarily they're using the AstraZeneca vaccine which make up, I would say probably more than 50% of the injections they've given so far. And then much fewer BioNTech doses and some Moderna doses. So it's primarily AstraZeneca. And from this data, I would say the vector type of vaccine which is AstraZeneca get a negative one point because of the situation in UK, Portugal. There's a little bit of uptake, but not serious. And their first dose 56.8% fully vaccinated, 35.1%. Fairly high percentage of the people have been vaccinated. Delta variant 71.8% that's pretty high percentage wise. Now the thing is that because Portugal is part of EU and the mixing EU is that most of the vaccines they have administered are BioNTech and Moderna and a little bit AstraZeneca and very few J&J shots. What's that telling me is that BioNTech and Moderna have been very effective compared to, for example, the situation in UK. In UK where mostly they use AstraZeneca vaccine and that's why for Portugal, I give mRNA another credit point. Let's look at China. It's very impressive. The case count has been almost zero every day since March of 2020. They administered enough doses for 47.6% of the people, not extremely high. And they primarily use a Sinovac and Sinopharm vaccine. In China they also have very stringent quarantine procedures for places where they have outbreak of cases and they use very rigorous contact tracing as well. The preventive measures also help a lot in addition to the vaccines. Because at this point they have so few cases we really cannot tell what percentage of cases are the Delta variant. I would say the whole virus vaccine which is Sinovac and Sinopharm get one credit point from the China data. Let's look at Russia. Unfortunately, not good here. First dose, 15.7%, fully vaccinated, 10.2%. So very few people have been receiving the vaccines. And the Delta variant now is at 89% of the new cases, pretty high. And they've been using primarily the Sputnik 5 vaccine. And looking at that, I will say it's not very good news. But you cannot just say because Sputnik is not effective, maybe the reason why so many people are infected is because they have not received any vaccine whatsoever. Therefore, instead of deducting one point from the Sputnik vaccine, which is a vector vaccine, I'll just deduct half a point just because so few people have received vaccination at this point. And then UAE, one dose, 68.8%, fully vaccinated, 59.5%. Delta variant is only 33.9%. And then if you look at the data, not very good either. Although recently there's been a slight decrease. And remember earlier, we read the news that UAE is now offering the BioNTech vaccine as a booster shot. And maybe that has to do with that dip here. And primarily they've been using Sinopharm. And recently they started using BioNTech and they also use a Sputnik vaccine as well as AstraZeneca. But mostly in the beginning, around like two, three months ago, they were giving people the Sinopharm vaccines mostly. Based on the data from UAE, I will say the whole virus vaccine, which is Sinopharm, gets a negative half a point at deduction, unfortunately. Let's look at Singapore. It looks pretty good. The day-to-day count is almost zero. And first dose, 65.4%, fully vaccinated, 38.6%. That's pretty high percentage. And Delta variants are whooping 90.8%. That means they are very effective in fending off the Delta variant. And so far they've been primarily using the BioNTech vaccine together with some Adrenal vaccine and some Sinovac. And with the data from Singapore, I will give an mRNA vaccine another credit point. And up until now, the whole virus vaccine got half a point. The messenger RNA vaccine, three points and vector type of vaccine is negative 1.5 point in the subunit because it really has not been used in any country yet, represented by Novavax. There's not enough information available yet for subunit type of vaccine. Now, if you look at the United States, the case count has been pretty good. Reduction, although it's flattening out a little bit, but it's not bad. Although the Delta variant is only 38.8% of the new cases, first dose, 55.1%, fully vaccinated, 47.6%, fairly high. And so far, primarily BioNTech and Moderna vaccines have been used in the US and with some small number of J&J vaccines. And with the United States there, I would say mRNA should get maybe another half a credit point. So that gives the mRNA in a total of 3.5, which is the highest score compared to the other three types of vaccines. As an investor, I got to make my best judgment. And this is how I do it. You might not agree with it. And if you don't agree with it, I appreciate any comments or suggestions or questions from you. You can enter your comments on the bottom of this video or you can send me your comments by way of my Twitter account. Let's continue. Worldwide, the most recent daily cases are 345,000. That's really still very high. And also so far, 3.3 billion doses have been given worldwide. But the world population is 7.9 billion. And most of the vaccines require two shots. So we need at least about 12 to 16 billion doses to cover the entire world. And only 3.3 billion doses have been given. So definitely the whole world needs a lot more doses of vaccines, effective doses of vaccines. Hopefully they will be from Moderna and BioNTech from my perspective because I invest in those two companies. Let's look at the analyst's opinions. First, let's look at Moderna. I'm comparing today's ratings with the ratings from my last video, which was published on June 22. Today's closing price from Moderna is $232. And my target, I'll talk about that later, Yahoo Business gives them a high rating of $246, which is higher than today's price. And that's good. And the average rating went up from 181 to 184. It's lower than today's price. And the low rating is only $83. And Navillier gives them an overall A rating. TipsRanks.com is moderate buy, high rating of $246. Again, higher than today's price. The average rating went down just a little bit, 194 to 192, and the low rating is 100. C&M Money is a buy rating, high rating of $246. Again, it's higher than today's price. Medium rating, 190, and low rating of 83. Now, if you look at BioNTech, today's closing price is $207. And Yahoo high rating went up just a little bit to 238. Lose Navillier is still an overall A rating. TipsRanks.com, moderate buy. The average rating went up just a little bit. And C&M Money unchanged. And if you look at this, the high ratings are all higher than today's closing price. So that's bullish for BioNTech. That means BioNTech was oversold as of market closing today. And indeed, after the announcement came out that Pfizer BioNTech will be applying for approval to conduct the trial on the booster shot, the stock price jumped up already. Actually, as of now, which is around 10 p.m., the aftermarket price of BioNTech already jumped up to 214. That's a very bullish sign. I have revised my valuation quite a bit for both Moderna and BioNTech. Now this part is the same as what I showed before. I took the leading pharmaceutical companies and looked at their PE ratio and I decided that I'm going to use the average PE ratio of 12.4, which is a very conservative number. And I assume a net margin of 33%. And that's a net margin for Regeneron. But in fact, if you look at the first quarter reports from Moderna and BioNTech, their net margin actually had been greater than 50%. And the second quarter, if the second quarter net margins are also greater than 50% for both companies, I will revise this up and that will also boost my price forecast. Applying these assumptions and the number of doses that are being proven by way of the press releases, I read from the West side from Moderna, which is almost a billion doses. I estimate that by the time you wrap up 2021, they can sell at least one billion doses. And for 2022, I estimate a sell of two billion doses, even though the company planned for three billion doses. I want to be conservative at this point, say a billion doses or two billion doses of 2022. And then for 2023, because not that many people would need to receive both shots. And maybe if people want to receive boost a shot, just one shot per person, I at this point assume that it will go down to just 1.5 billion doses. Again, that's a very conservative assumption. And from that, and from the sales price, which also I predict a decrease in sales price because of competitive pressure, that'll decrease from $30 a dose of $20 to $15 a dose. And from these assumptions that arrive at a stop price for 2021, 2022 and 23. As you can see, they're all pretty high. And I just want to be conservative for now. I want to be ahead of the professional analyst, but not too much it has. So I'm saying I'm setting a forecast of $260 a share based on my calculations. One very important point is that the net margin, as I mentioned, instead of 33%, in my next video, I might increase it to 50% that's proven by the second quarter earnings report from Moderna. For BioNTech, I use a similar assumption for dosage for 2021 because they already have 1.6 billion doses in your press releases, although some of the sales have not been recorded in the press releases. And that's why I believe they can easily sell 2 billion doses in 2021. And then for 2022, the company plan for 4 billion doses, I want to be conservative and only assume 3 billion doses. And there's a reduction that I assume for 2023. I also assume the reduction of sale prices because of competitive pressure. And from that, I arrive at the stock prices here for the three years. And again, I want to be conservative. So I set a forecast price of $250 a share. Again, this 33% net margin assumption could be increased to 50% after the second quarter earnings report. Let's look at my targets and see how they compare to the analyst targets. For Moderna, my latest target is $260. It's actually higher than the high targets from Yahoo or from TipRanks or CNMoney. And BioNTech, my target is $250, also higher than the targets from Yahoo, TipRanks and CNMoney. You might say, hey, Daniel, crazy. I would say, no, I'm not crazy because I have been ahead of the professional analyst ever since earlier this year. For example, back on April 16th of this year, BioNTech, for example, I predicted 210. Yahoo only predicted 126, much lower than my target. TipRanks predicted 130. I was way ahead of these two groups of analysts. And sure enough, BioNTech eventually exceeded 210. That's why I'm not worried that I'm ahead of the analysts and my targets are higher than the analyst targets. Let me recap. My prediction is that Moderna will be a $260, BioNTech a $250 by the end of September, 2021. These are the closing prices today. Usually I also look into the charts in my video doing a technical analysis. But because this video already has a lot of new information and it's running pretty long already, I will not include a technical analysis. I will most likely publish a video on technical analysis from Moderna and BioNTech in the next couple of days. So stay tuned. I'd like to suggest that you also subscribe to my Twitter account because if there's any major developments, I will send out information to my subscribers by way of Twitter messages. And also I will share with my subscribers when I buy or sell Moderna or BioNTech shares just like what I did today. I will welcome your comments, suggestions and questions that you can send by way of my Twitter account as well as my YouTube channel. Thank you for watching all the way to here. I'd like to suggest that if you like what you've seen so far, please click the like, subscribe and notification button. I just want to remind you that I'm not a financial analyst. I share my stock trading strategies and my analysis for educational purpose only. If you want to buy or sell stocks, you should make your own decision and you should definitely consult with your financial advisors before you do so. That's about wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile, I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments.