 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network I hope you all are prepared emotionally because tonight begins a stretch of two times in three island games We get to watch the Indianapolis Colts in prime time that begins tonight with the Colts and these Steelers We're gonna break down that game from a betting perspective Let you know what we're seeing value traditional markets player props touchdown props and more to hopefully finish up week 12 And a high note for you by talking to Ryan Williams This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here once again to buy Ryan Williams Check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore w and Ryan. I Was kind of bummed initially at the Colts were on both Monday night and then Sunday night next week But then I remember that having the Colts there means we get Bengals chiefs on the main slave or DFS in the afternoon So I think it's actually a worthwhile trade-off. So I'm in a good mood. How are you doing today? Yeah, I mean, that's definitely a trade-off that we'd be willing to have It's also fun that we get to you know kind of pinpoint some things with the Indianapolis Colts that we want to target Which is which is always nice when we don't have to do much guess work Say But but yeah, I mean anytime that we can you know You sacrifice Sacrifice the islands for you know some enjoyable stuff on the main slate Especially compared to the main slate that we just got off of After the Thanksgiving slate which ended up being you know, not great for my DFS bankroll, but it was amazing for me Yeah, awful terrible terrible. Yeah, but but we digress Jim We digress we're here to talk about clothes out week 12 here But no, yeah, I think I think this is a one that sets up in an interesting manner for sure for Monday night Yeah, interesting is not a bad word for it because honestly like this is like it's not an exciting game But like I'm kind of intrigued by Kenny Pickett. I'm kind of I always like walking Jonathan Taylor. He's pretty fun George Pickens always a candidate to do something wild. Najee Harris has actually been Kind of kind of juicy recently for the first time in since Alabama basically so it's not a it's not a bad slate Not a bad game for tonight We're gonna break it down Let's you know where we're seeing some value for tonight over at Fandall Sportsbook and get you ready for tonight's game But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering this spread wherever you get your podcast back to five Podcasts for this week with the Thanksgiving holiday in the rearview mirror Monday through Friday Getting you set for week 13 in the NFL But also talk to the college football and some World Cup with Ed Feng as well So a lot of good stuff coming up this week here on the cover in the spread podcast feed Make sure you're subscribed there on your favorite podcast platform Or over on the Fandall YouTube page to get these as they are posted Twisted tea and fandal of joint forces to bring you a one-of-a-kind contest series That gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars in psych credit Introducing twisted teas college football picks a sports betting focused contest series That's entirely free to play the contest is simple Each college football game will be assigned money lines spread and total markets with assigned points to each market All you do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points for each correct selection You may if at the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share of side credit Head to faddle.com slash twisted tea picks and make your picks and remember please drink responsibly Let's focus now on this Steelers at Coles game right now We got the the spread of two and a half the total for this game is a 39 and a half We'll talk about those markets in a bit but Ryan when you look at this game What's the overall top-down view for you of Steelers at Coles? Yeah, this is one that you know for me just that from the top down the view Screams under I mean anytime that we get to running backs like this and the way that they're utilized in offenses And just the way that these teams go about trying to get points is not great. You're also looking at I mean that the Coles I think they ranked like 20th or right around that range in DVO a which you know doesn't really jump off the page But has been better under Jeff Saturday, and then you look at a Pittsburgh Steelers team that since TJ Watts been back They're top 10 in DVO a I mean he really has helped this offense Tremendously there's also an interesting stat out there. I think it's only been like two times since the beginning of last season That the Steelers have scored 30 points. They just did so last week against the Bengals They've lost both games where they've scored 30 points And and you know that's that's just unheard of so you you prefer if you're taking any side of the Steelers Like myself, I'm taking the two and a half You don't want this to be a shootout game because they haven't shown in the past two seasons that they've been good in that manner But you know, I do think that TJ Watt has definitely helped out I do think that there's something that Kenny Pickett has shown us there Matt Ryan hasn't shown me enough Jeff Saturday being there. It's been a good story. I think this is on his You know, we are getting him on an island game here at Network Jeff Saturday as we like to say But I don't know if there's enough here in the tank for the Colts to kind of pull this one off Yeah, I think that I'm curious to see what the Philosophical approach is the thing we know what the what the Colts are gonna do They're gonna try to run the football as often as they can and honestly like if I had Matt Ryan in 2022 as my quarterback I'd probably be doing the exact same. He's better than Sam Ellinger But he got bench for a reason and like so I think that their approach and being very run heavy makes a lot of sense I'm worried. I'm curious though what the Steelers do offensively because the Colts rush defense as they showed last weekend's Philly For the most part, they were very good in that game that last drive. They didn't do as much But like they were good overall. So I'm curious does Pittsburgh kind of go a bit more Aerial attacking in this game They haven't been bad Like passing so I wouldn't be I don't think it'd be a bad thing if they did But I also wouldn't be shocked if they did I just think that's that that's out of the ball the Steelers offense. I'm having a bit harder time getting a firm grasp on personally Yeah, I mean, I actually Like it from from that standpoint. I mean Not your hair just came off of a game where he rushed for two touchdowns in the first time in his career So, you know, no, that's rushing for two touchdowns. I know he said we had is he had like his first He had the longest rush of his career two weeks. I think it was like 36 yards So we're we're checking a lot of firsts for Najee Harris here Yeah, exactly But you know, I do think that he sets up pretty Interestingly just the fact of the usage that he's going to see which I guess we can touch on a little bit But yeah, I do I mean, listen This is this is where we get to the part of the season where we start to see handcuffs taken off of guys Especially, you know with the Steelers trying to see what they have in Kenny Pickett And I mean what better way than to showcase this kid on Monday night football In front of you know, a national televised audience and just try and let it rip He has the pieces to do so And this is you know, probably the better way to beat the Colts. So let's see what he's got. Yes Let's talk about those Steelers. You mentioned that you have the Steelers plus two and a half That is a bet we mentioned on Wednesday show last week I'm throwing a bit of value on the Steelers money line right now plus 1 22. I've not bet that yet personally I likely will not I think that is the right side though if you were to bet this game I think they're gonna bet this game either take the points with the Steelers or Take the money line. I think both those pretty viable games like this can land on two decently often So I think there is value in taking the points opposed taking the money line if you want to go that way I would go money line personally if I were to bet it, but probably not gonna get there You mentioned the under two at thirty nine and a half being your prefer a roll Let's talk about the Steelers specifically here because again, no Jalen Warren here Najee Harris stones tones and burst we've seen the Steelers passing offense for a couple games now with no chase Claypool and like It's been pretty concentrated. So what do you see on the Steelers side as far as props that you like tonight? Yeah, I think we well first Let's just talk about Najee and the way that he's going to be utilized in this game and seeing all the work like in the receiving game in in the in rushing I think his If I'm not mistaken, I saw his rushing and receiving propered around 86 and a half and you know, you're looking at the past couple games and the coats I mean even with Jeff Saturday there Philly wasn't able to get there with the running backs But Jalen Hertz was able to you know, put up a decent rushing performance against them Josh Jacobs just two weeks ago Got over a hundred yards rushing and receiving Against this team. So we definitely like the way that this shapes up for Najee Harris The other guy that we got a look at which I don't think that the book has Appropriately caught up to what Pat Fryer Muth is doing in this offense I mean outside of the target totals just when you're looking at his receiving props like yeah He had 37 yards two games ago but like other than that this guy's been smashing the number of 46 and a half where he's currently listed at and You know, I think there's merit to get alternate lines on him I mean you're looking at plus money if you just take over 50 receiving yards on the outline for Pat Fryer Muth He's involved between the 20s. He's involved in the red zone. I think he's incredible. I have a fun First touchdown bet with Pat Fryer Muth as well 12 to 1 there, you know, we love the tight ends in the quarterbacks at first glance And then I think we just got to talk about George Pickens to when we're talking about the stealer side I mean he has been you know, the alpha receiver here Despite, you know, Deontay Johnson of what we saw a year ago with MV and the target hog with Big Ben George Pickens is that guy for Kenny Pickett I mean when they when they need a long third down conversion when he needs, you know When Pat Fryer Muth is covered and he needs somebody else he's looking to George Pickens there So I think getting action on George Pickens where he comes in at right now, which is around 43 and a half Yeah at minus 113 I think we got to look at that as well too and I think the fun thing is you're talking about some yardage props that actually does tie in pretty well at the one prop that I thought stood out to me in this market, which was Kenny Pickett over 213 and a half passing yards for this game And it is it does tie into what I was talking about before where I feel like they're probably gonna have a hard time running the football year That doesn't disqualify the Najee rushing plus receiving one because 82 and a half is like a pretty fair number Because you get a lot of work in the passing game I think they could struggle to run and that could lead to some decent yardage numbers for Pickett now The yardage for Pickett this year has not been Outstanding he has topped 213 in just three games so far, but he looked at Jets game early He left. I believe the bucks game early as well. There's something funky in that game He said it into the past four games So it's not like he's smashing this number by any means, but it is situation where they're playing indoors that's a positive as always it is a bit of a run funnel where they encourage you to pass against them as opposed to run against them and He does throw downfield and you mentioned, you know long throws to George Pickett's that can boost up yardage Yardage totals in a pretty big hurry So I think if I'm looking at the stealers side here if I did want to dive in I probably looking at Kenny Pickett over 213 and a half I think that's a good number to get him at and it does tie in well to the the fire move and Pickens ball processes for you because again targets are pretty tight in this offense in a good way with no chase play pool in the fold Yeah, no, I think that's I think that's incredible And I mean again We're talking about concentrated offenses and being able to quote-on quote predict where the ball is going so to speak And I mean the Steelers have just shown us what can you pick it out there like where the ball is going? Like there's no other ancillary pieces than the starters who are on the field who aren't getting much of the work It's like we're just gonna roll with these guys I do and Jaylin Warren just being out absolutely just opens up so much for Naji Where they said they were you know, they talked about preseason of trying to limit his touches But in a matchup like this, I think they'll just you know try and give him as much as he can handle Yeah, I don't think they have a lot of leeway to be reserved with him by any means Let's move now over to the colt side of things. They've been very run-heavy with just Saturday But they also just probably been more functional than they were were to think it's a good thing now You mentioned the TJ watch factor and TJ Watts is a force and that could I think give us some pause in the colts in general Because my initial inclination Ryan was looking at the Jonathan Taylor rushing plus receiving prop that's one or two and a half and I was like initially like, okay, they're gonna be very run-heavy It's not a very good rush defense, but they've been a lot better in the games. TJ watt has been active I know he's like a pass rusher, but like he has a ripple a trickle-down effect. So I Couldn't talk myself into any colts props. Were there any that stood out to you here? Yeah, I think the the one piece that really is sticking out to me Jim is Paris Campbell The way that he's been utilized this past couple games with the Matt Ryan resurgence Has been absolutely incredible I mean even like you're talking about leading the team in red zone targets leading the team and pretty much every receiving category That there is and he comes in at 42 and a half which seems like a fair number Especially when you're talking about the front seven of this defense for Pittsburgh if they're, you know, giving some problems Matt Ryan You know, we've seen him throw, you know, 37 40 over 40 times before this could be a matchup at home If Jonathan Taylor is not able to get going where they rely on Matt Ryan in that way I'm trying to look at the past catching pieces Michael Pittman has had a pretty consistent yet quiet year. He's had it His biggest game on the season. I believe 130 yards against Jacksonville hasn't caught a touchdown since week one So I think there's merit to getting Paris Campbell at three to one on any time touchdown as well, too I just really like the way that they've been utilizing him in this offense And you know, shout out to Paris Campbell to who's been a guy's been littered on the injury reports the past couple years It's nice to see him healthy and be out there and in going out and performing like a lot of people in the industry Thought that he once could Outside of that. I mean, there's really no other pieces that stand out to me I'm the tight end position for the Colts has been gross all year You know, you can't really trust any of those guys. I do think there's merit in If we're looking at passing yards Like you said 236 there 236 and a half from Matt Ryan I think if you want to take like most passing yards in the game He is favored over Kenny pick it But I think that's probably the right lane to go as well, too If you want to mention in this game outside of that it's pretty gross I don't really like the Jonathan Taylor props I mean, we're looking at over a hundred yards for rushing and receiving from him I'd probably it feels gross because of Jonathan Taylor He can do anything on it in an island saying make you feel Like an idiot about it, but I'm willing to take the under there And maybe it's just an under on the rushing yards as they have them at 83 and a half So yeah, I could see him getting over, you know, whatever it is 16 and a half On his receiving prop and that would be fine. Yeah, going back to Paris Campbell I think that when you think about the Steelers defense, they've been a very good defense for a very long time They're kind of key flaw has been guys who move around the formation They can get them in in key matches situations. This has been true since like I don't like early 2010s. This has been a thing against Steelers And that is kind of the area where Paris Campbell operates You mentioned the the target always have with Matt Ryan It's been very good. They seem like they've developed a nice rapport. He's healthy, which is pretty fun I think that's all pretty encouraging. So the yardage one you mentioned 42 and a half And the anything touchdown for Paris Campbell is three to one Let's open up other touchdown bets here You talked about Pat Fryermuth first touchdown 12 to 1 Paris Campbell at three to one any others you like For the touchdown markets for tonight Yeah, I think those are my two favorites. Um, I'm always willing to get uh, uh, George Pickens He's three to one as well three 10 On the on did money there. Um, if you're looking at him outside of that I can't really get behind Any of these other ancillary pieces to score that's just I just don't think that's plus EV To be doing but I will say that can he pick it any time touchdown? Which it's really gross that they don't have it better than this But that just goes to show you the state of the Pittsburgh running back situation Yeah, can he pick it's plus 550 to score in any time touchdown? He actually is tied with nazi harris for lead on the team with rushing touchdowns at three Nazi just tied him with his two touchdown performance last week. So I mean, you know if they get Five or five or closer You're you're thinking about maybe you could see can he pick it try and sneak in there And and really get some action on that but other than that those are really actually I will say this Pittsburgh Steelers defense at nine to one our defense and special teams I guess nine to one to score a touchdown there We have not seen matt ryan turn the ball over in quite some time But to start the season we know that he would make him mistakes and making them in abundance And you know, this is again, we're talking about tj watt We're talking about what this defense can do Would it surprise us if matt ryan, you know threw a pick six in the situation or if the cio's were able to get a phone board recovery I mean this defense just is so opportunistic and gets over on plays like that So nine to one for pittsburgh steelers as well. I like that Yeah, they got tj wattback make if it's patrick had nap in deck to me And then played a hundred percent of the snaps like 10 days later Which is absurd to think about like I couldn't work out for like a month after I had my appendectomy And this dude's out here playing every he played 66 snaps last week It's just rink is built a little differently than you jim slightly a bit You know, I I you know, you look in the mirror and you're like, huh, which one is it? It's a little spider-man memey, but you know, I agree that there are slight differences You can tell the difference at times we're twins, but our mother's dress was differently The one that I looked into couldn't talk myself into I thought about alex pierce plus 480 anytime touchdown Because alex pierce is like a good football player who gets downfield work and I thought maybe I could talk myself into that the reason I didn't wind up pulling the trigger Is because hey, he doesn't get a lot of red zone work just for red zone targets so far this year for alex pierce his Primary function is kind of just being a field stretcher And like that's a valuable role to have but it's not going to be great I guess like if I had to give him a comp it's kind of he's kind of playing a dot of in people's jones sort of role For this indie team where he's getting downfield getting some yardage, but it's not going to lead a lot of touchdowns I don't think dpj scored this year until last week. So He's kind of playing that kind of role which isn't great for touchdown So if I were to look at the pierce props, I think the better way to go It'd probably be in the receiving market is there aren't any markets posted for alex pierce, which is a little annoying but like I I thought about it ryan at plus 480 couldn't quite get there I think the pick in the shout out though is a good one He is uh plus 310 and like you watch that guy play and it's like yeah, it's just he's built to be a touchdown machine So I thought about pierce but couldn't quite get there myself Yeah, no, he's he's a great pick for this so you think that the future is right But yeah alex pierce is interesting I think any of the receiver options have some merit to them when you're looking at this dealer's defense Allowing 21 passing touchdowns Which is third in the league and just knowing that the chiefs and cardinals are ahead of them and did have a game yesterday So, um, that's where that number is coming from. Um, so yeah, they've been pretty much porous all year When it comes to stopping quarterbacks from finding the end zone via the air So any piece are that high that's absurd. That's wild right? I didn't realize that they let up that many Well, they and we've seen this with them and I don't want to go on a tangent too much here But just we've seen this time and time again with this defense Like they they really buckle down when it comes to red zone rushing efficiency Um, and it's just so hard to run on this team like inside the 20 Um, and and they really just are they dare you to just beat them through there and teams have You know, they're always throwing because they're always from behind and that's what they need to do Um, and they have been given up the big play. So yeah, that that is surprising But then also not surprising. Um, when you think about the numbers and how the chiefs play I did take over 51 for that game next week for the chiefs and Bengals So if they were to continue to be bad in the red zone against the pass, I'm not going to complain. That's uh, That's just one more week back. So we love that Let's boogie. Let's boogie. Alrighty That is all that we have here for this game for the Steelers and the Colts again Interesting game despite the fact it might not have the two sexiest teams still some fun stuff to look at. I think some fun Props as well Do not forget to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts both on your here podcast platform But also on the fandal youtube page world cup stuff coming up Tomorrow we've got college football and a big week coming up And plenty more to come throughout this week here on covering the spread ryan appreciate the time as always Hope you had a fantastic Thanksgiving. We'll talk to you once again thursday to break down a really fun week 13 slate Oh, yeah, thanks for having me as always jim. Good luck everybody can't wait to get after with you next week jim Alrighty follow ryan on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w i am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s Good luck to all of you tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some world cup and get my first look at nfl week number 13 This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network