 Let's look at frequency probability. So frequency probability is determined by how often an event occurs or how often a proposition is true depending on how you want to look at it. You know this is different from logical possibility. Our logical possibility you have to figure out all the things that could happen and you know you're looking for your favorite outcome amongst all of them. Okay frequency you don't have to you just have to look for you know you've got your favorite event you're trying to figure out how often that thing happens and then you just measure how often it happens in a you know selection right and given time span and given selection of evidence or situations that sort of thing. Now frequency probability you know it's not the same thing as logical possibility right. Frequency probability very definitely has its uses. We use it a lot well actually we use it a lot to determine whether there are causal relations or what the causal relationships are and we'll see that yeah we'll see that more when we look at what's called mills method we'll see that in a couple of chapters. And it's really great for determining whether there's a causal relationship and you know between between what two things or more the causal relationship occurs. Okay so it's it's useful by the way it's useful for determining whether there's a causal relationship and that in turn would be useful for propensity which we'll get to in a little bit but frequency is not the same thing as propensity and frequency is very very definitely not the same thing as logical possibility. So you're looking at how often the thing occurs. Now sometimes there's overlap and sometimes there's even a way to like add more evidence using frequency say in addition to something like propensity or in addition to logical possibility. So for example returning to our coin case at the logical possibility. Remember what we figured out is that the probability of coming up heads is 50-50. Okay well suppose you've taken that coin and suppose you flip that coin a solid I don't know a hundred times and then flipping that coin a hundred times you found a wealth you know golly this is a little surprising 38 times it came up heads and 62 times it came up tails well that's really different from the logical probability that the probability we got from logical possibility right logical possibility tells us the chance of coming up heads is 50-50 with this you know testing with the frequency well it's only 38% right oh that's interesting you know that's kind of so maybe what you have to do is keep flipping that coin so you know just any set of a hundred doesn't determine the frequency you have to have larger and larger sets and well again we'll see that when we look at some some of these argument forms of spit specifically statistical syllogism that's that's what we're doing with frequency probability that's that's statistics 100 believe it or not 100 is not enough of a sample size you know keep flipping and I'm probably going to get different results okay so frequency probability is is not the same thing as logical possibility and sometimes it's over and sometimes it might tell you right that the logical possibilities are actually off so you're using that example the coin again suppose I keep flipping that thing a thousand times I've got a really boring weekend right I'm flipping a coin a thousand times and you know in the long run it turns out that coin only comes up heads 20% you know 27% of the time but it comes up tails you know 70 the other 73% well if that happens well then it's going to tell you something interesting namely you don't have a fair coin right so frequency can tell us something more or something different than logical possibility but it isn't necessarily one's just obviously better than the other it does depend upon the circumstance and again another advantage with frequency probability you don't need to figure out everything that's possible you're only looking for your desired outcome let's move on to propensity