 Hello and welcome to CMC Markets on Tuesday the 26th of January and the weekly market update and this week I'm going to be concentrating I think largely on the risk on risk off trade row row as I like to call it. We've seen a significant correlation between equity markets and oil prices and I'm going to look at that correlation I'm going to look at the key support levels on not only the German DAX but the S&P 500 and I'm also going to be looking at a proxy for the oil trade and that is Canada Yen because I think there's potential that we could have seen a potential reversal in the Canadian dollar particularly against the Yen but also I think against the US dollar as well and that sort of brings me neatly into the Wednesday FOMC meeting where Collins Zinske and myself will be holding a webinar at 3pm which is free for you to sign up for and there'll be a link on this video for you to navigate to so that you can sign up for that webinar. I'm going to make a start with the S&P 500 as we head into month end we'll we're still I think significantly above a key support level and that's borne out by this chart that I'm about to put up in front of you right now. Now this chart here is a weekly chart and I've drawn a support line through the lows in 2000 through pretty much most of 2014 currently comes in just above the 1800 level also comes in above the 200 week moving average and it's also significantly important that we're above the trend line support from the March 2009 lows so the broader uptrend that we've been in for the last six to seven years still remains intact we're still above some key support levels and until such times as those support levels break then the likelihood is we're probably going to continue to trend off that support level if we break the support level then we could well navigate lower. Moving on to the German Dachs and it's a similar sort of story again we're looking at a long-term chart and again we can I've identified a number of key support levels notwithstanding the 200 week moving average that for me is the key support level along with the 9300 area which we bounced off earlier this month so again the oscillator as in the S&P on the earlier chart is looking a little bit oversold that's not to say that it can't drift a little bit lower but certainly in on the basis of those two charts and the fact that we're seeing an awful lot of volatility in and around $30 a barrel in the oil price maybe there is some evidence of an intermediate bottom starting to come in in oil prices to get a view on oil prices sometimes it's a good idea to look at the commodity currencies and in particular the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian Kroner which can act as proxy currencies for crude oil and I think it was rather notable last week that we saw some significant reversal patterns in the Canadian dollar now the reason I've looked at the Canadian dollar against the Japanese yen is essentially because the Canadian Canada's and their export country and Japan is a net import country so from that in that context sometimes looking at charts like across like Canada yen can be instructive in terms of the overall turnaround in sentiment on a particular currency pair so let's start by looking at the daily chart and in particular at a candle last week which I've identified as a hammer now this hammer chart does appear to suggest that we could well have a base in place but we still need confirmation of that so what I've done with this Canadian dollar chart this Canadian dollar Japanese yen chart is I've moved it forward to a weekly chart now the weekly chart we've posted a bullish engulfing week now historically these sorts of candles tend to act as a positive arbiter of a rebound we still need to be confirmed and what we don't want to see is a move back below the lows that we saw last week but the oscillator is starting to look as if it's about to turn higher and that could well suggest not only a significant rebound in the Canadian dollar and that's significant in the context of its performance against the US dollar with the FOMC tomorrow and a dovish FOMC could have the side effect of pushing the Canadian dollar higher but also in the context of a significant rebound in the oil price so that's it for this week I'll expand upon a number of those themes at the webinar tomorrow at 3 p.m. Wednesday prior to the FOMC meeting until then or next week this is Michael Houston talking to you from CMC Markets