 Good morning to all of you, and good morning to those who may be watching online because this is a live stream event. I'm Vikram Nehru and I'll be your moderator this morning, and it's my pleasure to bring to you three excellent panelists, Bill Sweeney, who's from IFIS, which is the International Foundation for Electrical Systems. We have Ong Din, who's from the Open Myanmar Initiative, and Christina Fink from George Washington University, and you have your detailed bios in front of you. So today we're going to be talking about what's going to happen, what's well, what happened in the Myanmar elections, and we're going to talk about what happened in the Myanmar elections, which was incidentally exactly a month ago, on November the 8th. So this is, I guess, an opportune time to look back, but as important, and perhaps even more important, to examine what's going to happen the next four months before the new administration actually takes charge in late March or early April, because Myanmar at this point is in uncharted waters. Now we're going to conduct this as a conversation. I'm going to ask, in fact, Bill Sweeney to begin, because he's got a PowerPoint presentation where he'll lay the groundwork, but then I'll immediately go into questioning our other two panelists, raise some issues, and then we'll open it up to the audience for a Q&A, and then I would like to ideally try and finish this within 60 minutes. We'll try and finish this within the hour, because we would like to make it sort of crisp and interesting. All right, so let's begin with Bill. Bill, close yours. Okay, good morning. First of all, I'll do my best to make it crisp and interesting, as well as a little fast-paced. My job is to lay the groundwork. And in these days of a democratic deficit and concerns about closing space, what we witnessed in Myanmar was a democratic tsunami. We saw opening space. We saw people, as they believed that the process was full, fair, free, transparent, and accountable, engage with their feet in line and engage with their voices in their vote to give you a sense of the wave that took place. On the left, you have what the parliament looked like before the election in the lower house on the right after the election. Red is NLD, same in the upper house. To give you an illustration which all politicians will understand, there were over 6,000 candidates for the parliament upper and lower house from 92 political parties. Between the time of filing and the actual day of election, two died of natural causes. Her dead guy won. Think about that. This was known in the community that they could not replace him because he died right before the election. And he won. Now, that doesn't happen very often. IFAS's success with our programs in Myanmar started with our partnership with the Union Election Commission. We have been engaged with the UEC for almost three years. That engagement was first of all to sort of outline the tasks ahead of them and then the process of public engagement as well as actual specific pick and shovel work of election administration that we could do together. We were supported in this effort by USAID, by DFID, by the Australian development, Australian development funds, Swiss development funds and Danish development funds with some help from time to time from the Canadian development funds. So this was a true basket effort trying to do great things with the Union Election Commission, a body which was completely appointed by the president and whose chairman at the end is a retired general and is considered one of the closest friends of the president. So this was a body that was used to giving orders in a military sense, very little public engagement. It was also a body that for legitimate reasons, other factions in Myanmar had great suspicions of, but they did a terrific job. It was a challenge over three years. First element was stakeholder engagement. That meant working with all political actors on an ongoing basis for over two years in terms of what was going to happen on election day, how polling places were going to be selected, which ones were going to be closed because of flooding or violence, how the ballot process was going to work, how it was going to be counted, where observers could be. All of that information came out of a strategic planning process, which for many people in Myanmar was the first time their government had ever asked their opinion about anything. So we had this process underway for well over two years and then followed through on it. Secondly was the national voter list. The voter list in Myanmar basically consisted of thousands of handwritten notebooks maintained by local governments and ministries. There was no national voter registry at all. IFIS in partnership with the UEC was able to digitize the entire list. Then running our civic education programs throughout civil society and political parties post the entire list and have millions of people go to their public polling stations and check their names. Not once, but twice. So that of a voter registry that ended up being 33.5 million people over the course of 60 days before the election, there were over 6.5 million corrections. Those corrections were then absorbed and on voting day the list worked. And from my perspective, this was one of the most nervous election days I ever had because the flash point in so many societies is you go walking in to vote. Your name's not on the list or there's a typo or and in Myanmar they had a very complex record and suddenly that becomes the start of disruption of the polls, election violence, arguments fist fights. You're trying to deny me the right to vote. No, that didn't happen. This list worked and this list worked because of the leadership of the UEC, particularly in drafting literally whole IT departments from other ministries to absorb 6.5 million corrections to a list in less than 60 days. Voter education was a constant part of this process, both as to how the process would work and then tasking throughout it so that it's to get people not just to attend a lecture but then to talk to their colleagues and friends and get them to check the list. And then get them to check the list again. In particular here with women's leadership, a program that IFAS started called She Leads. Each of the ladies around the table was one of our instructors. They, according to our numbers, touched about 2,500 people each. Angelina Jolie came to Myanmar to promote engagement. She came and what she's doing there is she's checking her name on the list. But culturally, this was a very big deal for women voters in rural villages to not merely go in to make sure their name was on the list but then if it had a correction to have the correction done in front of them. So they were asking the official, it's not just my name is wrong, but please correct it and then let me see it corrected. Very, very significant empowerment across the country. Finally, inclusion. One of IFAS's signature efforts in terms of participation around the world is participation by people with disabilities. We have made this a central part of strategic planning with election commissions around the world. I am delighted to report that the Union Election Commission embraced that concept. We had trainings in their headquarters that laid out the polling stations so that people with wheelchairs, people with other disabilities could go to the front of the line, had space to vote, were treated with dignity and respect. And this was an important step forward and noted in all the observation reports. So, looking ahead, there are a few, not many, complaints about how the election happened. There are some that are close, a fault line in their process is that the Union Election Commission is judge and jury, but they are going through that process. We all will talk about formation of a new government and electing the next president. However, I'm going to point to the fact that the UEC, the Union Election Commission, is a completely appointed body by the president. And this is a lower tier decision, but we'll be being made probably next April, May, June. And if we want to talk about serious constitutional referenda and change in Myanmar, then we're going back to the polls. So this is an area for those of us committed to democracy in this country, to not lose sight of what will happen next spring after the big person politics are done, because Myanmar made enormous progress, enormous progress. And the voices of the people were heard and counted. And that's resulting in the changes we're going to talk about. But let's remember, just as we were reminded this election was only 30 days ago, in about six months, we've got to look at a new Union Election Commission and what its charter and capacity will be going forward. With that, thank you, sir. Thank you very much, Bill. I must say, IFIS has done a splendid job in Myanmar. You were basically based in the Union Election Commission. And it was a tough ask from the very beginning, but I think in the end, you came through. I was an observer for the Carter Center in the elections, in what's called the Golden Triangle up in Chengtong, which is the area where there's a lot of drug smuggling and warlords and so forth. But one of the things that was striking in the election observation that we did was that there were virtually no problems with the list, with the voter list, which was quite astonishing, given the fact that the place was really out in the boonies somewhere. Well, thanks a lot for that basis. I want to turn to Ong Dinh now. The question I want to pose to you is, well, now that we've had the election, Bill's laid out what happened there, but now that we've had the election, we've got four months of a transition process. How is this going to unfold? What's going to happen? What should we be looking out for? Today is certainly one month after the end of November 8th, also, about four months away from the new government taking over the office. So every people are wondering whether the military will really agree to transfer the power to the new civilian government or not. So we all remember the last night between the 1990 election, which was not recognized by the military government. So we don't want to see such a repeal of history again. So one week ago, on December 2nd, Daw San Suu Kyi held meetings with President Thaisingh and the Gomanai chief may online separately. So both the president and the Gomanai chief have pledged to cooperate hard for the transfer of power as smooth as possible and also according to the existing laws and regulations. And two days ago, Daw San Suu Kyi also met with former Gomanai senior general Thaisingh for two and a half hour at his residence on December 4th. So usually, we don't hear about such a high level of meetings from the Daw San Suu Kyi or never. But this time, we got something from someone we don't expect, who is initially three of, the grandson of senior general Thaisingh, who he himself met with Daw San Suu Kyi on November 19th. So he wrote a post at his Facebook stating that he was the one who facilitated the day's meeting and said that both Daw San Suu Kyi and senior general Thaisingh were very, with mutual respect and very friendly. And he also stated that senior general Thaisingh pledged to support for Daw San Suu Kyi if she was for the development of the country. So far, Daw San Suu Kyi hasn't denied or approved this post yet. So for me, I believe that the power transfer will be smooth. And then we are going to see the new government by already taking over the office in April 2016. Yeah, it's a funny thing that in preparation for the new rules in the upcoming parliament. Now, I know this will be a letter collecting rubbish on the streets, learning English, and studying the constitution and the history of the annuity as instructed by Daw San Suu Kyi. And she will set his ammunition for them before they take their seats in the parliament. Really? Thanks. Christina, so while all this is going on, we must remember that Myanmar has had the longest running civil war in modern history. 60 years of conflict. And there's been this parallel peace process that's been going on. It's not a nationwide ceasefire agreement really, only eight have signed on. So what's going to happen now? Is this peace process going to continue? Or is it going to start from square one? What's your assessment? Right, first I'd like to say thanks so much for inviting me today. And you have raised a very important issue because while we're thinking about all the meetings that Aung San Suu Kyi is having with various important people, this peace process is continuing on the one hand and the civil war is also continuing on the other hand. And for President Thane saying, he really wanted to make this one of his signature legacies of his administration achieving peace during his term. But that's been much more challenging for him than he initially expected, and there are several reasons for that. One is because of the number of ethnic armed groups and their different interests and positions. Another is because of the long history of mistrust between the ethnic armed groups and the government, particularly because ceasefires in the past have not led to a political resolution of the conflict. But a third reason is because the military and the President's peacemaking team have often not seen eye to eye on how to proceed. And the military has perceived that the peacemaking team has often made concessions to the ethnic armed groups that they felt were going too far. So the military has tended to pursue a military strategy on the ground by continuing to advance into the areas that are held by the ethnic armed groups. While the President's peacemaking team has been trying to convince these same ethnic armed groups that were really interested in working out a political resolution to this conflict with you. So there's really been mixed messages from the military and the President's team. Aung San Suu Kyi has pretty much stayed out of the ceasefire process so far, and she has not commented very much on the impact on civilians in the ethnic conflict areas. Both the 100,000 Kichin who've been displaced in Kichin State and more recently, Shan people who've been displaced in Shan State. The ethnic minority representatives, both the armed groups and the ethnic political parties, have been disappointed that she has really kind of taken a standoffish attitude toward the peace process so far. However, her party platform says that the NLD is committed to instituting a federal union, and she herself has hinted in the last year that she would give a better deal to the ethnic groups than perhaps the thane-sane government was prepared to offer. So there is some hope there, but also concern. She has said that she will lead the peace process once her government takes power. The text of the nationwide ceasefire agreement was basically agreed to in March this year, but the signing didn't actually happen until October. And one of the big sticking points was the fact that the Army wasn't willing to allow three of the ethnic armed groups that it's fighting against to participate in signing the ceasefire agreement. And some of the other armed groups said if this is not an inclusive process with all the ethnic armed groups signing, then we're not going to sign either. We don't want to be part of this divide and rule strategy of the military. So in fact, as Vikram noted, only eight of the ethnic armed groups signed this deal. And I would just note that it was actually approved by the parliament two days ago, yesterday, sorry, yesterday. But the process is stipulated that after the agreement was reached within 60 days, framework would need to be drawn up for the political dialogue. And then 30 days after that, the political dialogue would need to begin. And this process is actually going forward during this transition period. And so in late November, representatives were chosen to develop this framework. And that framework is supposed to be approved on December 14. Now one of the sticking issues in developing this framework has been the representation of the NLD within this body that's developing it. So political parties were allotted eight out of the 24 seats with the government and the ethnic armed groups getting the other seats. But in those eight seats, the NLD were only given two seats, even though they won the election by a landslide. And so that was something that they didn't feel comfortable with. But ultimately, a bigger issue for them is the amount of decision making power they will have in this political convention that is supposed to meet after the framework has been finalized. And that body and the composition of that body is one of the current sticking issues in this process of finalizing the framework. It's expected that there will be over 500 people in this political convention. And that they will be grouped. So there will be military representation. There will be government representation, which is separate from the military. There will be political party representation that will include the ethnic political parties, but also other parties like the USDP. And then there will be ethnic armed group participation. And also a certain number of seats reserved for other people who should also be there, which would include lawyers and representatives of civil society. So Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD are very concerned that they would have a leading role in this body. And presumably, if things go forward as they're supposed to, this body would meet for the first time in January, which is over two and a half months before the NLD government actually comes into power. And this sets up a challenge because the NLD presumably has a position that's different from the military in terms of the political dialogue. Given that the NLD has said that they stand for federalism, while the military has been more reticent to adopt that position. And the military is continuing its offensives on the ground. Nevertheless, Aung San Suu Kyi said to ethnic political party representatives in parliament earlier this week that she would like the ethnic minorities to think more about what they can give to the union rather than what they can get from the union. So there is a question about really to what extent Aung San Suu Kyi is going to advance the rights of the ethnic minorities and how this process is going to play out during the transition and then going forward once her government comes to power. And she will have to balance not only the interests of the ethnic groups or the ethnic people as a whole, but also the military within this peace process. But then thinking more broadly of the peace process within the broader context of all of the political and economic reforms that she would like to make. So this is something that the NLD is going to have to handle with great skill and sensitivity if they are to be successful. Thank you. Christina, one of the outcomes of this election is that the ethnic political parties were essentially routed by the NLD. The NLD did not enter into a coalition with them or into an agreement with them in all the ethnic states. So that's bound to affect the dynamic in this peace process. How will it affect it? Will it hurt it or will it help it? Well, I think there are a number of factors to consider. One is that Aung San Suu Kyi has said that she will include ethnic minority representation in her cabinet. So it depends who those people are in the cabinet and what kinds of positions of power they are given and if they are given a certain degree of responsibility over the peace process or not. The other key factor is within this body that's going to develop a national accord that would resolve the political conflict between the ethnic minorities and the government. How much decision making power will the ethnic representatives actually have? And that includes both the ethnic armed groups and the ethnic political parties. And I would note that there is a question of who really represents the ethnic minority people. Is it the ethnic armed groups or is it the political parties? And then even among the political parties, there are the political parties, the ethnic minority political parties who are currently in the thane sane parliament. But there are other parties who had been allies of the NLD in 1990, who are the ones who did better in this current election. So I think that that's going to be a very complex process and it's also going to depend on the degree of unity between ethnic politicians and the ethnic armed groups. Bill, I want to come back to the electoral process itself, if you don't mind, because there was one dimension which you didn't touch on, which I'd like you to talk about, and that was this whole issue about the disenfranchisement of a very substantial number of Muslim voters. And the fact that there were many Muslim candidates for parliament who were disbarred from standing for the election. And this is the first parliament that we've had where there is not a single Muslim member of parliament. How did you deal with this? Can you give us some insight as to your discussions on this issue with the UEC? Was this an area that was off limits or was this something that they were prepared to discuss and how did that discussion go? I would say in retrospect, we raised a variety of points about global best practices, about enfranchisement, particularly for people who had white cards, whose white cards were then canceled. As to whether or not that would stand, we raised a number of practices, a number of concerns about decisions that the UEC was making or that the parliament was making. And in just about every case, we were told that this was a decision that had been made and it was not going to be revisited and have a nice day. And that's the easiest way to put it. And I think that all political parties and particularly the new government have a substantial obligation, particularly as a leader in human rights, to start to address the issue in their society of inclusion of a substantial number of citizens who've been living there for generations and who are being excluded on the basis of religion or ethnicity that has sometimes to do with the armed conflict situation, but sometimes not. And these are serious historical problems, if not fault lines in the society that they have got to figure out how they are going to address. Now, that's easy to say from here and as we are witnessing what's going on in our country in a very sad set of dialogues that seem or they're not dialogues, they're sort of news releases read by candidates, which I've rarely seen, and then walked back. Their society is going to have to deal with this problem and it's not. And you're right to highlight that this is the first parliament without any representation, which means that all parties who are going to be in the next parliament share the same problem. And it's a national problem and it's not being dealt with. And I want to also come back to a point that you made in your initial remarks about the fact that you said there were very few complaints that had been registered. So far, yes. Right. Now, I have different information. I mean, I'm told that at least the reports that I've heard from the Myanmar Times or that over 422 complaints so far have been registered. I guess that is few considering the size of the election and the number of candidates and so forth. But it's also 45, the 45 days are not up, which is the deadline for the registration of complaints. So we really have another 15 days to go before that happens and people are anticipating a large number of fresh complaints to be launched. How will these complaints be dealt with? How long do we expect this to continue? And will this have any material effect on the result? Okay, let's slice that question into two or three pieces. First of all, in the case of election complaints, you usually have them relatively quickly, right after the election. Secondly, the good part, if you will, is that the Union Election Commission and the Parliament have laid forth a process for complaining. All of that information is then transparent and open to everyone. There is some accountability, okay, to how they make decisions and when they will make decisions. So all of that is good because in many societies where we work, the electoral dispute resolution process is a mystery. And so this process is quite transparent. There are, from a global best practices perspective, some issues with the complaint process. One is the threshold for complaints. It involves a filing of a fee, but it also involves more than just a press release that somehow or other something happened. You have to collect evidence. You have to bring that evidence forward. That evidence then has to be public. That is a healthy part. There is a flaw which we have had multiple discussions with, but was a political decision by the Parliament, that the UEC is both judge and jury. There is no appeal process outside of them. They've known that from the development of the first draft of the strategic plan. But that is a political decision that that government has made. And now we have the standard of public accountability to see how they perform and what the results will be, which goes to your last point. I don't think there's enough complaints there for a significant or even marginal impact in terms of representation. Her majority is not threatened, okay? We're not dealing with if it's one or two seats, suddenly she goes below a threshold. It doesn't have, no, no, no, that's not the issue. So the issue will be the size of the majority, not whether or not the majority is threatened, which is the critical issue for governance. Thanks. So Ongdian, I want to now sort of come to you about this transition process. One of the big questions which everybody's asking is, who is likely to be nominated as the president? Or the two vice president candidates which the NLD is going to put forward. I'd like your views on that. And I'd also like you to comment on, I think today's news article, that Shreman seems to be once again coming into the mix. I don't know whether you remember, Shreman was actually interviewed here in this room some time ago, and he lost very badly actually in the elections. But he's coming back into the mix. So he's being considered perhaps as the next chair of the UEC, or maybe even the head of the Constitutional Tribunal. So perhaps you could comment a little bit on that. What's exactly happening behind the scenes as people are now vying for positions in the new administration? Well, first, who will be the next president? It is a kind of a million-dollar question. I think nobody knows yet. A few years ago, Unya Ume, who is a great company, a member of the NLD, spoke in Japan that said that the party has already chosen, had a short list of 10 candidates to be elected for the presidency. So their condition is that they are purely NLD members, loyal to the party, also they are no military background. So these are the conditions he set when they have the short list of the candidates. But you can also add that anyone, he or she, should be extremely loyal to the Don San Suu Kee because she could not be the president and she said she would be the above the president. So anyone he or she should accept the rule of the above the president. So that means there are so many names running around the town in Yangon, but I don't want to imagine any names because these are not very sure yet. But they will see some. For the first year of January, the new parliament will begin and their first choice is to elect the chairman of the both parliaments. And then they will go for the presidential election, then you will see maybe the first year of February or the second year of February, who will be the president of the Unya Umea. And we are not sure about what role she will take in the upcoming administration. Because maybe we thought that she would be the chairman of the lower house because she's a representative of the lower house. So she would choose to take over the chairman of the lower house. But at the same as she said, she will be very close to the president. So how she will do, maybe she will serve within the president, the cabinet, maybe as a minister, mentor, or like in Singapore. If she does, yeah, she will be very close to the president that she can manage the government by herself very effectively. But if she choose the way, she could not be a member of the National Department of Security Council. She could not sit in the top of her body as well. So we don't know yet even which role she will take over. And so I thought I could not answer the question you asked. But Shuman, Shuman. Okay, Shuman. It's interesting. I believe that she will have some kind of high level position within the NLD administration. Yeah, because the Osasuchi and the Ushaman have a very close relationship. We even learned that he played a lot of roles in facilitating between the Osasuchi and the senior general, Dhan Sri. And also he just finished the law degree from the corresponding course. So that means he's available. Not only he's a boss of his wife. They have learned they have taken the course of law degree for many years. So now they call it such degree. So they are really fit to be fit in the some high level position in the NLD administration. Also don't forget in the year 2020, 2012, when NLD wins the victory of 42 members of parliament. And even though NLD position is very minor role, but also Shuman has appointed Osasuchi to be the chairman of the law and rule of the law and tranquility committee. So they have the kind of the different age. So he gave father very high level job in the parliament. So maybe Osasuchi will give father high level position in our new government. Well, that'll be very interesting. All right, so I'm gonna ask my last question to the audience, to the panel. And then I'm gonna open it up for Q&A for the audience. So if you have any questions, be ready to ask them. But this is a question to you, Christina. You heard of this new upsurge in fighting in Shan State that's taking place. There's continuing problems in Kokang and so forth. How big a problem is this? Is this going to scuttle the peace process? Why did this happen in the first place? Does it complicate the whole environment for the dialogue that you were mentioning? Yeah, well, I think that for commander and chief Min Hong-Liang, he wants to pursue the strategy that the military has pursued all along, which is to enable the military to actually control all of these areas that have been under the control of ethnic armed groups or have been areas where you have a number of troops operating at the same time, but no one group in complete control. And so he has been continuing to press forward. Also another strategy that the military has used for many years is to try to divide and rule between the ethnic armed groups. So it serves the military commander and chief's interest well to see that now you have some groups who have signed this nationwide ceasefire accord and some groups who have not signed it. And these two groups are starting to move farther and farther apart. So that drives a wedge into the peace process and allows the military to argue that the peace process isn't gonna be successful and we need to continue with our strategy, which is ultimately going to result in our control over the entire land within the borders of the country. So Aung San Suu Kyi and the ethnic armed groups, the ethnic political parties really need to think about how can they address this? And I think for the ethnic armed groups, they're well aware that their actions of splitting do play into the hands of the military. But on the other hand, they find it very difficult to actually come back together. So it will be interesting to see if the NLD can come up with a strategy that can really bring everybody together and also get the military to pause in its strategy and take on the peace process more seriously. All right, thank you very much. So now let's open it up for Q and A with the audience. Raise your hands and please, when I recognize you, identify yourself, give us your institutional affiliation and then ask a question into the microphone. So yes, the gentleman at the back. Good morning and thank you guys. Paul Harrison from Blue Moon Fund. Sort of broad question, since many of the ethnic challenges are near the borders and obviously also one of the challenges of the country is to expand the pie, which means more development, et cetera. What's the role that regional economic, regional international neighbors are gonna play in all of this, China, Thailand, et cetera? In both the security and the economic growth that Aung San Suu Kyi will need to show to succeed. The role of the international community in the neighbors. Christina, perhaps you might want to take that. So all of the neighbors would like to see peace and stability in Myanmar because they would like to develop cross country transportation links. So linking India to Thailand, for instance, linking China to India. So these routes that would cross the country both horizontally and vertically, which would expand trade throughout the region and would benefit not only Myanmar, but also of course all of the neighboring countries. And that really can't happen until there's peace. But there are other interests as well. So in China's case, they have an interest in managing their relationship with both the central government and the ethnic armed groups that are along its borders. And the Chinese government sometimes plays one off against the other depending on the particular issues that are of concern at that particular moment. So we see kind of complex relationship between the powers that surround Myanmar and their relationships with the ethnic armed groups and the government itself. You want to jump in, Aung San Suu Kyi? Yeah, let me add a few things. In my opinion, this peace process now on the ring of callers. Because I know the leaders just said that they will not continue to use the NPC Myanmar Peace Center. And they don't like some contest within the nationwide ceasefire agreement. So when they take over the office, I think they will modify the whole process, beginning from the NPC to the nationwide ceasefire agreement. So this is kind of the uncertain future for the time being. At the same time, the unity of the ethnic troops are now collapsed. This morning, the UNFC decided to dismiss two organizations from its alliance, the Chinese National Front and the old national organizations, because they signed the agreement without the quality agreement by the whole group. And then now they are trying to follow another alliance with the war and the Khokyan troops. These are quite dangerous because the Burmese government actually already allowed them to follow the coalition and then the Burmese government already allowed to discuss with them as the whole group. But the whole group is not united. Now they are going to follow another group of coalitions with cooperation with the Myanmar and United States Army and Khokyan. This is kind of a danger. It will be quite difficult for the NRA to continue the peace process if there is no assistance from the international community. Right now the Japanese government has appointed the ambassador, the special envoy to assist the national reconciliation process in Myanmar. So the Japanese have been working together with the ethnic forces to facilitate their dialogues and meetings with the Burmese government. I think such assistance from the international community is quite needed at this moment. That's very interesting. Thank you. Priscilla, we'll come to you on this side later. Yeah. Wait, just wait. Thank you. I'm Priscilla Klap, senior advisor to USIP. I have a question for both Christina and Ongdian. The NLD ran in its campaigns in the ethnic minority states. They ran largely local candidates, which means that the NLD now has a large cohort of ethnic minorities within it. Secondly, if you look at the sheer numbers of people who were elected to the parliament, even though there were not many ethnic parties that won, some of those that won fairly large amounts like the SNLD and the Arkan party, and if I'm not mistaken, I think the combined numbers that they have exceeds the USDP in the parliament. So you can't really make a flat statement that the minorities lost out in this election. They may have more representation in terms of numbers of minority people in the parliament, in this parliament, in the next parliament than they have in the current one. So I think that it may not be fair to say that they took a bath in this election. There were many too many parties running. Would you agree? They really split the vote. That's number one question. Number two is on the Muslim issue. It's my impression that it was greatly exaggerated by election politics. That a lot of the anti-Muslim feeling that has or sentiment and activity that's gone on for the last year to year and a half has been connected directly or indirectly with the coming elections. Now that the elections are behind, maybe there'll be a better opportunity for beginning to tackle this issue. I mean, I think it's one of the things that the NLD is gonna have to do right up front, particularly with the Rakhine situation. It's going to come at them like a freight train from the international community. Okay, so there are really two questions. One is, are the ethnic groups really properly represented? And the second is, now that the elections are over, will this whole communal tension subside? Why don't we start with Aung Dain and then we'll come to you, Christiana. Well, first question about the NLD women's many seats in the ethnic states. I think this is a weaker call for the ethnic political parties. They are not united. And there's a lot of division within their own parties. And they are strong. They are influenced by a lot of personal interests. That's why they are now banished by their own people. So people are voting for the NLD instead of their own political parties. So this will be the weaker call for those political parties. Now they are starting to reform their organizations. They have reviewed why they lost in their own states. Now, I think they will be better positioned in the upcoming election. This is something I can say. About the even though NLD wins in these, ethnic state, ethnic candidates are also ethnic. And then maybe they will have the higher position within the union government and the state government. I don't know, but I believe that even if you found the state-level governments, I think NLD will choose their ethnic representative to run those state-level governments. But yet the organizational party and the traditional liberal democracy, they combine together around 42 seats in the union parliament. So they will have major seat in the upcoming union. And I think they might be included in the NLD government because those parties were traditional alliance of the NLD and they stood together with NLD for many, many years. So I believe that they will be included in the NLD new government. And then about the Muslim. Yeah, what I can say is that this is a blank mark for the NLD's victory. I don't care about the UEC or whatsoever because they have their own rules. They have their own friends of theirs. But NLD should include Muslim representatives in its candidates. But they intentionally excluded all those Muslim candidates. It is kind of shameful. So I agree with you that they have to do something to amend such a situation. We have the millions of Muslim population in the country. They must have proper representation in the parliament and all the administrative bodies. I hope that NLD will pay attention on this issue and try to amend such a negative mark on their victory. Sheila, you want to add something? Yeah, I do. So I think that for the ethnic minorities, their voting was certainly affected by the fact that the ethnic political parties were divided that in most states you had the 1990 party that had been affiliated with the NLD and you had the 2010 party that ran under the auspices of the USDP. And so votes were split and people were frustrated that their political parties had not come together. But another important factor is that a lot of ethnic minority people felt that only a big NLD win could bring about change in the country. So even if their political parties had been united, I think you would have had a number of people who still would have voted for the NLD. And so that's something that the ethnic political parties need to take into account. The other thing is that in regard to the Muslim question, for many people in the country, you know there is a sense of insecurity, a sense that with this transition that started with the Thane-Sane government, there are going to be people who are going to benefit economically and there are going to be other people who are going to be left behind. And within that kind of environment of economic transition, poverty, opportunities opening up that some people seem to have access to and others don't, it's easy to really propel a kind of thinking about nationalism that it can be very negative. And I think that that's something that the NLD is going to have to address, that there is uncertainty and insecurity and there are still going to be people who are going to try to inflame tensions around that issue. I'll end there. Bill, can I ask you a specific question with respect to the whole Muslim and Rohingya issue? We always, whenever you hear commentary on the Rohingya issue in Myanmar, we always talk about a path to citizenship for the Rohingya who live there, some of them live there for generations and so forth. But nobody links that issue to the whole question of immigration from Bangladesh and other borders into Myanmar. When you talk to the Burmese, they say, listen, one can't really be dealt with without the other unless we have some agreement on immigration. So if you do give citizenship to those who are already in the country, we don't then, we are not faced with another fresh wave of immigrants and then we have the same problems before. And this sounds like it's very similar to the issue of the United States. It's an issue which is being confronted in Europe and it's an issue now in Myanmar too. Did you have any discussions of this? Did this sort of issue come up in your discussions? This issue is now a constant because it goes to the heart of citizenship as well as identification for verification that you have the right to vote in that society. The European Union Observation Report highlighted the fact that many of the people who were turned away did not have their name on the list because they were in fact illegal immigrants to Myanmar but had lived there for more than 20 years. An issue that we have in this country and many other countries. There has got to be a larger discussion around both identification of citizens as well as immigration. And it's not just a discussion along the US-Mexican border or all of the borders of Europe or the borders of Bangladesh. If you visit with members of the Indian Election Commission, they will detail their concerns about illegal immigrants from the state of Bengal on the Bangladesh side coming into India and then qualifying as voters there so as to get into social benefits. So this whole conversation is going to be a dominant one in election administration and it's much larger than this particular country. It's a global issue. Thanks a lot, Bill. All right, from this side, the lady at the back. Come here, lady. Yes. Please identify yourself. Good morning. Andrea Montano from Crumpton Group. The NLD has been highly criticized over the years for being a very centralized group and the constituents often have to clear themselves through Aung San Suu Kyi to pursue any sort of initiatives. To what degree will the NLD MPs have independence within parliament to pursue the needs and issues of their constituencies? And the second part of that question is, is what are the red lines that Aung San Suu Kyi is currently facing with the military given that she has stated that she will be Myanmar's true leader and within the constitution, it specifically states that nobody will be above the president and the military has come out on several Facebook postings actually saying that they will make sure that they enforce the constitution. Thank you. Great question. So the whole sort of speaking to the authoritarian instincts, if you wish, of Aung San Suu Kyi. And then what do you say? Well, it's an NLD, it always helps the elastic crisis. The bodies solely depend on the elastic of Aung San Suu Kyi and over the 27 years, they haven't selected the succession of leadership. In 2012, we were very happy. When I recall for the first ever conference, we thought that it would be a good chance to set up the proper leadership at the various levels. But in the end, after the conference, NLD didn't set up the proper rules of the leadership. They only elected Aung San Suu Kyi as the chairman of the body, but the central executive committee was appointed by Aung San Suu Kyi, not elected. So even though central executive committees are now the decision-making body, but they are not elected by the members of the NLD. It is a kind of the leadership crisis. It will continue, it was for many years. So I hope that NLD will provide, refine itself and create the proper leadership through the election from the grassroots members. And if they would like to face it, they would like to win the election another five years, make another five years. So they have to do something to make it their party. And then the red lines. For me, I think that the military and the NLD, they were worked within the current system of power sharing. But so now they will be influenced by the many other ideas. And then on December 4th, before two hours before Don San Suu Kyi went to see Senior General Daishui Nijirou, Senior General Mayon Lai delivered a speech at the passing of the great ceremony of the Defense Service Academy, 57 intake in the U.N. He spoke about, in his landing speech, he spoke about the military's participation in the country's politics and he said, quote, since democracy system enhances one's value in due respect, we will have to proceed for the betterment of the country with a reciprocate arrangement, unquote. So by emphasizing the reciprocate arrangement, he made it clear that on San Suu Kyi and as long as on San Suu Kyi and NLD acknowledged the role of the military and treated with respect, the military will respond then with the same attitude. So I think this is a real lie. The real lie mean maybe on San Suu Kyi will be forced to consider some option. For example, the force of military to leave away from the power right away and also make herself to be the president by using the popular mandate and trying to amend that constitution, then there will be the real lie for the army's military, I think. All right, we've got about four minutes left, so I'm gonna take two questions this time and then we'll have to wrap it up. So there's a gentleman right here and Michael Martin, yes, come, if you could keep the question short, I'd appreciate it, yes. My name is Nyain Min, I'm just a regular citizen here. As a regular citizen, we are always interesting who will be the president of Burma and then nobody knows right now. But right now in Burma, there is one kind of news floating around. On San Suu Kyi, a serve will become the president. There is a way. So once on San Suu Kyi become the president, what will happen to NMD? Thank you and Michael. My question has Michael Martin from Congressional Research Service. Inside the new union parliament, assuming that they're allowed to take office, the actual largest opposition party is going to be the military. So want some comments about what the military's function will be or how they will operate within the new union parliament. Second, the current commander in chief is approaching supposedly the age limit for retirement. Is there any speculation on he may step aside, what role he might have post-retirement? And in that context also, under the constitution, the commander in chief appoints three of the key ministry positions, defense minister, border affairs. Ministry of home affairs, border affairs and defense. Any sense on who might be those three ministers and what implications that has for the post-April government? Thank you. Well, I'm not quite sure what you meant by saying that there's a view now floating around that Ong San Suu Kyi will become the president of, because I thought that she was not going to be allowed to become president because of the constitution. But can anybody speak to that issue? Would you, Christina, would you like to start? Or would you like, why don't you go ahead Ong? Yeah. There's speculation about her presidencies, because after she met with senior general Dan Shui. So people have shown that this is a great life for senior general Dan Shui to amend the constitution, especially the section 15 and a half, to make her eligible for the president. So it was a rumor circulating around, around Rihangou and many other cities. But for me, I don't think it's possible. The first, even Dan Shui allowed, Dan Shui made the generalize and the military allowed to make such an amendment to the constitution. They would not have been right away. So when the new parliament, sorry, in February, when the new parliament started to take office, their first duty is to elect the chairman of the board parliament as well as to elect the president. And during the month of February to March, the president-elect will nominate to fill the positions at the union-level ministry. So he or she would spend maybe about two months to fill all the positions and he or she would submit those names to the parliament for the approval. And only in April, it was that the new president would take office. So to amend the constitution, by the new parliament, I think it would take longer time. Longer time, maybe two months, three months, I don't know yet, but at least 20% of the MPs had to submit a single resolution, single drug bill to amend the constitution. And then one of the parliaments would take over, first, discuss, and if drug bill was passed by one of the parliaments, they would move to the second voting of the parliament. So even the parliament had a strong agreement, more than 75% of the people to support such an amendment, it would have to go to the national referendum. So it would be long time. So I don't think it is possible for Donaldson to become the president at least within a year. And another second point is that even though she met with Aung San Suu Kyi, now we've got a lot of negative responses from the president office and the commander in chief's office. Both said they don't know. They were not informed in advance. They didn't know about such meeting. And some of the elements, even playing, they should be on hold of federally meeting such a meeting without informing those are president and the commander in chief. So I don't think it will happen. Yeah, Christina, what about the part of the military being the largest opposition party in parliament? How is that going to affect things going forward? Right, I think the military is going to play the same role that it's actually played under Thane Sainte's government, which is under Thane's government, they assumed that they and the USDP would be united. But in reality, it didn't work out that way. In many ways, the USDP led parliament was challenging interests of the military. And so the military's role was to ensure that its interests were protected. And certainly they're going to feel under an NLD dominated parliament that that's an even more important role that they need to play. I don't see the commander in chief retiring quickly. I think that it will be important for him to see that the military's prerogatives, the military's powers are maintained or that any compromises or reductions in power that are made are made under his watch and would not overly reduce the influence of the military in politics. Bill, you have the last word. Okay, what I would say is both questions highlight the fact that the society is in transition. The political process is in transition. This transition is going to have great implications in the next year, two years. It is why we as an international community, not just as representatives of the United States or wherever, can afford to take our eye off of the political developments that are going on in this very complex society. In my business, elections are one day affairs and then suddenly goes to governance and everyone walks away and says, well, democracy worked or democracy didn't work. No, the reality is the challenge is ahead of us. Evolution of ethnic representation, evolution of the political party system, how the parliament is going to work, how the military is going to engage with it now in elected civilian government with a mandate. All of these are issues that in democracy and governance are central to whether or not the people's voices and votes ultimately rule. And just as I ended my presentation saying, something that's going to happen next spring is she gets to appoint a whole new union election commission and there is a constitutional reform process underway, it's going to issue a report. Does that come back out to another referendum and we have another major national election in 2016, 2017, that's not inconceivable. And just in the case of the military relationship, if we decide that we've got to give the military a year rather than have a substantive military to military exchange, it'll be a year lost. And it won't be a year moving forward as we as the United States have been able to develop substantive military relationships with other countries and their transition to democracy and then made the military in effect, agents of protecting that democracy going forward. And that's the challenge for all of us the next 18 months to two years. Well, that was a superb concluding statement, I thought it was absolutely superb. And I just want to emphasize that reflecting what Bill said, we continue, we hope to continue to have events like this as part of our Myanmar votes series. And I just want to add that this has been done in collaboration with the Southeast Asia Studies Program at Johns Hopkins University, School Advanced International Studies and with the Asia Society Policy Institute. And of course, we're always grateful for the support of the Japan External Trade Organization which supports the series as well. So with that, thank you very much to all of you for coming and please join me in thanking this outstanding panel. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.