 We are six months into the Ukraine war, and of course, this is also a war that has been marked by a lot of diplomatic maneuvering, discussions taking place around the world, because these are issues that impact all of us wherever we're located. This week, the focus is on Africa, and we'll be discussing this in this episode of Mapping Fault Lines. We are joined by Pravir Prakash. Pravir, so two major visits that we've seen in Africa over the past week. One is Russian Minister Sergey Lavrov, of course, making a trip to certain key countries, including Ethiopia and Uganda. On the other hand, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, also making his own set of visits to countries such as Cameroon. So first, let's start with Lavrov's visit, because that is the one that has gained a lot of attention. He's made quite a few statements. African leaders also have kind of engaged him in what is a very interesting moment. So what do you make of the significance of this visit at this point of time, especially considering there was a lot of talk about grain. We saw that African leaders at Contra-Russia talked to Putin for instance. So how do we analyze his visit? You see, there is the question that the success that the United States and European Union countries had thought they had gained in the United Nations when Ukraine, the war was condemned, Russia was condemned by a set of countries, including some of the African countries like for instance, Kenya. They felt that a certain section of the world was supporting them on the issue of Ukraine. But when it came to sanctions, it was clear that virtually nobody else, apart from the European Union and of course we have Australia, New Zealand and the other side of the ocean and the United States, virtually nobody and of course in the North Canada as well, apart from that nobody was really going with sanctions. So African's position was some of the countries condemning the Ukraine war what Russia had launched in the military operations as they called it. But at the same time not engaging with the Western decision to go ahead with sanctions and as at the time President Biden had said, convert ruble to rumble. Now that has failed but what has happened is that the war has really had two major impact. One we know and we have discussed which is on energy which has impacted European Union very badly but of course it also affects others. But the second is really on the food grains and fertilizers because both are important for food and both Belarus and Russia are major exporters of fertilizers as well as Ukraine and Russia for food. So that's why we saw the African leaders reaching out to Russia because for both export out of Ukraine, out of Russia as well as fertilizers they needed Russia's help. So given that this Lavrov's visit also makes it clear that Macron was bringing nothing to the table while Lavrov clearly was. So Lavrov has much more traction precisely because the food supplies which have been impacted and they have been impacted as we discussed last time that they have been impacted not just because Ukraine has mined its harbour, there's a blockade that Russia has imposed they would like to check what ships go in and go out from. So that was both these issues the sanctions on Russia which made it difficult for them to send food outside Russia. So both these issues that Russia could play a role but European Union has really no role at the moment. So Macron going to Francophone Africa which is where the French strength is there that does not carry too much weight because increasingly even the French strength in Francophone Africa is eroding and people are not willing to be controlled by France at the issue of the French controlling the monetary system on Francophone Africa the currencies over there all of that has come into question and both the United States and French are increasingly under pressure to withdraw militarily from some of the countries which are facing insurrection and we see also the induction of the Wagner group in Russia in some of these cases. So there is a weakening of France in Francophone Africa their backyard which now the United States is slowly taking over with the spaces and so on they have already been in a large part of Africa as we know there's also number of lily pods as they call it movable basis all of that is taking place but on the issue of food and fertilizer as well as the energy there is the Russia is a player and clearly France is not so therefore France's old heft is no longer visible and we can see Macron made a lot of noise very strong anti Russia noises over there but it doesn't seem to have drawn the traction that Lavrov has and there is a much older history of course of Russia with Africa in the National Liberation Struggle which of course was also against the French so that that part of it is very much there so I think this is Russia's role therefore as a supplier of essential commodities Africa needs as well as its past history in Africa unlike that of the colonial players and now of course the United States also makes this difference as you are talking about Right, so Prabir again moving a bit more to Macron's visit himself you know here this is it comes at a time when France has faced quite a few setbacks I mean there have been uprisings against the French regular protests in a number of countries which were erstwhile French colonies and where France had actually placed troops French troops were forced to withdraw back to Niger for instance but you also mentioned a key point which is that the United States is also increasingly playing a role we see that with Morocco at one point but also Africa for instance being established so how are the US and the French really working together in this area specifically? Well there is obviously a clear partnership between the French and the United States as the French becomes more unpopular after all they are at ex-colonial power still asserting their hegemony on the currency of a number of these countries there are a bunch of ex-francophone countries originally of the French quote unquote overseas states or whatever they call them so those are still under the hegemony of France because of the currency their currency is still controlled their fiscal decisions are still controlled by France and though they have a so-called currency which three or four of them share and there is another group which have contributed the share really it is under France's central bank so given that there is the resentment on both counts that they control our economy by virtue of controlling our reserve bank they don't have their own reserve bank in that sense so fiscal policies are with France and the second part of it is that the kind of junior partnership which was what France had exercised over a period that is slowly there is a huge pushback on that and the fact that initially French military played a role in some of these countries supporting the internal military forces over there that seems to have had a huge pushback so there are a lot of people who are very unhappy what the French army is doing and there has been pushback in different countries where they have actually thrown the French out and invited the Wagner group in so they still face insurgency from the Islamic fundamentalists the ISIS kind of offshoots which are there but they also see that the French troops are not a help in fact French troops have become highly unpopular with the people because they see it also supporting the army forces internally against the people so it's not just against the rebel groups so at this alienation of France as an ex-colonial power and a weak colonial power at the moment I think is increasing you see Great Britain or United Kingdom as it called it later realized this much earlier so they handed over the baton quite early to the United States but that was also because of English solidarity the language the spoke was roughly similar therefore the baton picking up the baton was easier but in Francophone Africa France was much more jealous of preserving their shall we say hegemony over these countries but over a period of time it's clear that France is no longer in a position to fulfill those requirements and therefore the United States has stepped in with AFRICOM as you have said the AFRICOM is still headquartered in Europe but still the fact is there is an AFRICOM a number of bases as well as a number of this mobile bases so both of these sets are there and they seem to be there in Morocco as you have said also in Ghana they seem to have set up fairly strong establishment Morocco of course as you know went to the extent of using Pegasus to also look at the phones of senior French government officials including I think President Macron so the Morocco is in that sense much more at the moment with the United States than even with France so I think given all of this you can see a clear emergence of the United States being the basic guarantor of a lot of the states and Russia with the current changes that have taken place the fact that Russia-Rubel has become stronger the fact that Russia has primary commodities which the world leads given that I think you are seeing a change of relations, correlations between first the old Europe, the European Union and the old colonial powers are we also going to see realignment of forces in Africa between Russia, China there is a major economic power in Africa and the United States so are we going to see that that is the important question that we have to follow in Africa because United States is a military power but also a major economic and financial power it's no longer a major financial power as it used to be in Africa say 20 years back that has been really replaced by China where China is the major trading partner of a number of these countries in Africa so given that the American influence is also not as much as it could have been 20 years back so weakening of France, weakening of United States financially and economically in Africa are we going to see a major realignment of politics in Africa that's the question that we are seeing emerge in Africa and I think Macron's and Lavrov's visit and the response that both these leaders have got from African countries show clearly that European Union is on the way out Russia and China are certainly more assertive in the global stage the United States is a question mark to what extent they will be able to maintain their hegemony through financial and economic control, control over economy they still control the global financial system and that we have to see will that realignment take place there also that's an important question because I think the dollar hegemony may be weakened but it is still very much there absolutely, thank you so much Praveen that's all we have time for today we will be covering more such issues in future episodes of Mapping Party Lines until then keep watching Newsclick