 Welcome to the weather forecast for the week beginning Wednesday. I don't know what that was June 28 2023, this is chief meteorologist John is worth for a long mop public media Doing another outside shot. Just got to enjoy this summer as much as we can Monday, July 3rd will be a full moon. So there will be a very close to full moon Full moon on the 4th of July. So hopefully that won't interfere with the appearance of fireworks Rising about sunset and sitting around sunrise Here's the Sun big active spot pointing towards us. So we do have Geomagnetic activity and I have mosquito activity Looking at drought from last week to this week We lost almost all of it. We are very close to 100% drought free now It's been dry for a couple weeks and on the on the western slopes and we have Another couple weeks of dryness Going over there. So maybe drought is going to start to slip back in looking nationally We have a little shifting of the Midwest drought to the north But for the most part the state is doing pretty good looking at smoke You might have noticed some haze out here And there is smoke coming from fires on the west coast of Mexico coming up into the state And some going out to sea Stuff from Canada is still circling around but not affecting us directly Okay, there's my silly definitely the last week for the snow animation. We stayed Up above normal for most of the time and as we come back down Um Yesterday it said 23 000 normal Now it just says na because normally the snow is totally gone But we still have snow and we've had some years where the snow is hung on even more than this So pretty good Looking at the precipitation. We got tons of rain on the eastern side of the Mountains like I said, it was very crispy dry out west But tremendous amounts of water. We had the tornado We had swaths of hail again. Yes, we're getting a new roof here um, just amazing Stuff so two to three inches and then five to six inches In a few spots So we have most of the rivers are running very high out on the plains Looking at the climatology for severe weather animation We're going through to june. Here we go through up into the first week of july Click it does start to decrease on the plains as we get into summer. It doesn't really change here much yet so We have a possibility severe weather still going and that is going to be the case severe thunderstorms and even I looked at the uh Radar just a few minutes ago We had a tornado in southern Wyoming traveling right about here going into the slight risk area for wednesday Where you have no conviction to the southwest of longmont and denver So it's a very tight gradient there, but for thursday Our front's coming down and it's going to expand back to the west With a slight risk right next to us and with that we actually have a 2 chance of a tornado again within 25 miles Of any point here that goes looks like it goes just about down to longmont and iwatt Thornton and then to the north and east Looking for a large hail on thursday We have possibility in those same areas almost into denver. Maybe the northeast side of denver But then really quickly to the northeast it jumps up in probability For friday it's marginal risk further out on the plains, but that could become more severe too Looking at the forecast future map. We have some Uh chance of convection just north of longmont for wednesday So probably very dry, but for thursday we have the severe chance here's the front hugging the Mountains and we are in that risk For friday just a general chance of thunderstorms Uh the temperatures within The ensembles i just think have been biased low for a while um We're gonna see 80s and upper 80s, but and maybe right right here As i was trying to show, but uh, yeah, i don't know something's kind of goofy there Our normal high is getting close to the maximum high for the year 87 up to 89 by about july 10th 56 to 59 uh for the normal low temperature the Highest normal high temperature is 90 and the highest highest normal low temperature is 60 So we're just a degree away from the peak Uh pretty good chance of uh storms thursday and friday We're gonna see that in just a moment and then after a break afternoon thunderstorms become the pulse of the weather so taking a look at the um Water vapor satellite image. We have thunderstorms popping up. There's one with the tornado in it Moving off to the east and we had a little thing pop up down here where there shouldn't have been convection Didn't last long it died um the notable atmospheric events are really thirsty on friday as this trough that's been sitting off the west coast for days weeks Is going to move in as this giant ridge to our east over louisiana right now which In hurricane season, it's not the greatest news for them, but there's nothing pending right now Uh, here comes that low and so the thunderstorms fire thursday afternoon And then the lows and the trough is a little bit closer And there's the thunderstorms for friday so Active right there. So let's put this in animation And watch the trough come in for thursday friday And then it moves Off to the east we do have a ridge replacing it on the west in the west On by monday Tuesday there's this trough beginning to push down And for the fourth of july we actually have a trough passing Um just north of us, but it should have some impact on fourth of july weather In the next thursday kind of a zonal flow All right, so the temperatures At the surface this map basically shows the purple circles or thunderstorms in the afternoon there right there for Friday night But i kind of a pool of cooler and moist air Lingers over the whole region. Here's monday. There's thunderstorms in the afternoon There comes july fourth thunderstorms in the afternoon and thunderstorms again on Fourth of july evening So you just kind of see that happening, but this interesting over cool Spot just kind of lingers around Looking at the total precipitable water how much we can get out. This is thursday Friday, it's above normal Saturday dries out so we get a little bit of a break And then going into sunday a little more moisture than monday a lot more moisture Tuesday fourth of july above normal atmospheric precipitation or precipitable water I'm able to make thunderstorms of precipitation And like that. So let's take a look at the surface moisture. This is dew points. You can see it's 50s upper 50s way above normal very moist surface for thursday and friday So it gives fuel to the thunderstorms and allows them to go severe Going into the weekend. We drop into the 30s and 40s mountains to the plains Then on monday Into the fourth of july you can see there's some 50s starting to slip back in right there 55 Really healthy moisture for Tuesday night And it kind of lingers into the next week 50s are very moist for us. It's just hard to get the moisture this high up a mile up into the atmosphere It's working at thursday's thunderstorms Kaboom right there and off they go and then friday kaboom off they go This Saturday is much quieter And then sunday little chance of stuff coming through Monday we get a little break and then for fourth of july there's the thunderstorms firing off again Uh next wednesday more storms And thursday more storms So we're going to keep the moisture going So over the next five days everything is again east of the divide We have Three quarters of an inch to an inch around laurmont more to the north And then bring in the next 10 days and see the western slopes get a little bit But i'd like to see more moisture continue to fall out there with the Higher temperatures, but we get a lot of water according to the gfs. There's two to three inches over much of the region So we're we are not going back into a drought right away at all long button All right, so wednesday's pretty warm then a cool front comes in bringing in the moisture pretty good chances Thursday and friday of afternoon thunderstorms You have our severe chance on thursday and it isn't far away for friday either So there's so many money things Dry out, but it's not impossible to see a storm in the afternoon the moisture is there Heating is there we got 80s almost 90 again on monday. We have broken 90 once now um, I think last year this time we'd already have 11 days at 90 or plus And so yeah, we're doing great for cool weather Speaking of climate, this is the juneut look It had us below normal for temperatures and that did happen So this seems to be back on track working They've got us right on the edge of a little bit above normal chances are that we'll go a little above normal for june and temperature No, no heat waves at all, but then looking at june, they had us above way above normal In probability for precipitation. We certainly had that And for july they've got us equal chances above or below normal So check out long mile later and broomfield later for frequent weather updates and great local news This has been chief mural just john insworth telling you to keep looking up